761
FXCN01 CWHF 200913
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
THURSDAY 20 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
-NOTABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS FOR SATURDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 20 NOV TO 0400Z 22 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY GIVING
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY GIVING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES TO THE EAST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 22 NOV TO 0400Z 25 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: FORECAST USED MAINLY GFS/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE MODELS DEVIATE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE GDPS KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY OFFSHORE GIVING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. THE
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NOVA SCOTIA GIVING RAIN AND POOR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY - THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. THE MODELS
COME BACK IN BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY SEES RIDGING BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST GIVING A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ON MONDAY GIVING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECOMING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
END/METOC-HFX
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