519
FXCN01 CWHF 220812
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
WEDNESDAY 22 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, A LITTLE BIT COOL AND A SLIGHT BREEZE
TODAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THURSDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEEKEND, REMAINING COOL, AND BECOMING BREEZY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 22 APR TO 0300Z 24 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TODAY OF
SUNNY, BUT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERATE CLOUDINESS AFTER THE
SUN STARTS TO WARM UP THE LAND MASS. A BIT OF A SEA BREEZE WILL
FORM UNDER THE LIGHT WIND REGIME BUT IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS
THE CURRENT AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL.
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY IN THE OPS AREA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER.
THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH WILL REACH. THERE IS A
RISK OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. THE RDPS MODEL
WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK IN THE MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL PUSHES THAT RISK TO THE EVENING. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 24 APR TO 0300Z 27 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON FRIDAY, ONE TROUGH PULLS OUT WHILE ANOTHER
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE, AND WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE OF LIQUID AND SOLID PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE.
BY SATURDAY, A BIG LOW EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL EXTEND ITS
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED OFF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SOLID AND LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.
BY SUNDAY, THE NEWFOUNDLAND LOW WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AND SOME
RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS IF
THIS WILL HELP THE CLOUD COVERAGE LOCALLY. IT SHOULD REDUCE THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HOWEVER, BUT MAYBE NOT TO ZERO.
END/METOC-HFX
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