729
FXCN01 CWHF 211934
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SUNDAY 21 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
- GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO MONDAY.
- PATCHY RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 21 JUNE TO 0300Z 23 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: CLOUD TO PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOCAL FOG
AND MIST PATCHES DEVELOPING AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD BUT PRECIPITATION IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED GIVEN THE LATEST DATA. FOG AND MIST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 23 JUNE TO 0300Z 26 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND THE TIMING
OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE MARITIMES FROM NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT'S GDPS RUN IS AGAIN
DIFFERENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH IT NOW BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH HAD THE RAIN ARRIVING IN HALIFAX TUESDAY
EVENING.
THE LOW CENTRE NOW GOES BY TO THE SOUTH OF HALIFAX EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
END AND SKIES LOOK TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE DAY.
ON THURSDAY THE REGION IS IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD.
END/METOC-HFX
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