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FXCN01 CWHF 202018
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
THURSDAY 20 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING TONIGHT.
-NOTABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS FOR SATURDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 20 NOV TO 0400Z 22 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY AND SPREAD SOME CLOUD OVER THE HALIFAX AREA.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 22 NOV TO 0400Z 25 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE MODELS DEVIATE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE GDPS KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY OFFSHORE GIVING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. THE
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NOVA SCOTIA GIVING RAIN AND POOR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY. THE MODELS COME BACK IN BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY SEES RIDGING BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST GIVING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ON
MONDAY GIVING CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECOMING A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
END/METOC-HFX
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