290
FXCN01 CWHF 310814
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 31 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MORE CLOUD AND COOL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY.
- 2 TO 5 MM OF RAIN TO GO WITH TODAY'S CLOUDS.
- SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
- MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUCH BETTER PICTURE FOR MID WEEK.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 31 MAY TO 0300Z 02 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF HALIFAX IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST
OF THE PROVINCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THAT WILL NOT PREVENT THE CONTINUED
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE PROVINCE TODAY,
BUT THE AMOUNTS AND EXTENT HAVE BACKED OFF. NEW MODEL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MORE LIKE 2-5 MM RATHER THAN THE
5-10 MM SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL
TODAY WITH THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 KNOTS LIGHTER TODAY AND WILL BACK FROM THE
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
TONIGHT, THE LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH PAST THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END AND THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL THIN OUT. THE LOWER
CLOUD WILL LIKELY STAY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOST OF THE NIGHT THOUGH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND PICK UP STRENGTH A BIT BEHIND THE
LOW.
ON MONDAY, THE LOWEST CLOUD LAYER IS FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT IN
THE MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROKEN BUT
SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH AT TIMES TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH
INLAND AREAS WARMING UP IN THE AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS LIKE A SEABREEZE
WILL TRY TO SET UP LOCALLY AND THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 02 JUNE TO 0300Z 05 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THIS MODEL RUN CONTINUES THE TREND THAT YESTERDAY
AFTERNOONS MODEL RUN STARTED.. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THIS SOLUTION,
FOR A TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THE CLOUD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL INTO THE LOCAL
REGION. THE MODEL CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SOLUTION WHERE MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
MOSTLY AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
PROVINCE IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
PROVINCE DURING THE MODEL. THE MODELS ARE NOW PROJECTING THAT THE
CLOUD SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY, A PATTERN SHIFT IS BEING DETECTED. THE RIDGE WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE FORECAST REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP TO SEASONAL, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE, ONCE AGAIN.
END/METOC-HFX
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