301
FXCN01 CWHF 182009
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
THURSDAY 18 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- PATCHY DRIZZLE AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MIST AND FOG DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
- GRADUAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 18 JUNE TO 0300Z 20 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST MOVE SLOWLY INTO
THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND STALL THERE ON FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT THEN VEER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR DAWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EARLY
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE MIST AND FOG DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
THEN MOVING ON TO THE COAST AND INLAND. A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSHOWER NOT BEING RULED OUT. MID LEVEL DRY OUT LATE OVER
NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SHOWERS TAPER TO
DRIZZLE.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTH. LINGERING MIST AND FOG MOVES OUT TO THE
APPROACHES IN THE MORNING THEN DISSIPATES NEAR NOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 20 JUNE TO 0300Z 23 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ON SATURDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE OVER THE HALIFAX AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH LEAVING A FAIR BIT OF LOW CLOUD AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ON MONDAY LEAVING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.
END/METOC-HFX
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