250
FXCN01 CWHF 050810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 05 SEP
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- ANOTHER 5 MM OF PRECIPITATION TODAY, 5-10 MM MORE TONIGHT AND 2-5
MM ADDITIONAL ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND STRONG NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.
- LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS 35 MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RAPID WEATHER CHANGES NEXT WEEK.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 05 SEP TO 0300Z 07 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS / HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN INTENSE, SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRUDGE SLOWLY FROM NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
MORNING TO SOUTH OF CAPE BRETON TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND
ON SUNDAY.
BANDS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
FEATURE AND AFFECT THE OPS ZONE TODAY, TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STEADIER BANDS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON
SUNDAY.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THIS FEATURE
AND AFFECT THE OPS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE PERIOD BETWEEN 05/18Z-06/00Z. HRDPS IS STILL
ADVERTISING WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS - THE RDPS HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT, AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING IS
REDUCED.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 07 SEP TO 0300Z 10 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LOW ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END,
THE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND THE CLOUDS HANG ON FOR A MASSIVE
CHUNK OF THE DAY.
THEN THERE IS THE UNFORTUNATE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FROM LABRADOR WEAKENS AND BECOMES A TROUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING WITH A GOOD BAND OF
SHOWERS FORECAST TO ROLL THROUGH HALIFAX DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TUESDAY.
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE NEXT STREAM OF
CLOUDS IS ON THE DOORSTEPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BROAD WARM FRONT
FROM NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO SPREADS CLOUD EASTWARD.
END/METOC-HFX
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