414
FXCN01 CWHF 020811
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 02 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BACK TO MODERATE POSSIBLE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY SUNNY TODAY.
- INCREASING CLOUD AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
- STRONG TO GALE FORCE EAST WINDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 02 MAY TO 0300Z 04 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING TROUGH WILL BACK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. ANY LINGERING SC IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING LEAVING A GENERALLY SUNNY
DAY.
WINDS EASE TO LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW COMING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES IT WILL BEGIN TO SPILL MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
STRONG TO GALE FORCE EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEARING STORM FORCE ARE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
OVER THE INNER HARBOUR WITH SUSTAINED GALES EXPECTED OVER THE
APPROACHES. A LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING WILL VERY LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE A LEVEL 2 WILL BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS
REACHING STORM FORCE. AT THIS TIME THE RDPS SHOWS THE GUSTS VERY
NEAR 50 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF TIME BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE LESS ON THE
HRDPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 MM ARE ON THE CURRENT RDPS
GUIDANCE AND AN ADVISORY FOR THAT MAYBE REQUIRED AS WELL.
EARLY IN THE EVENING THE LOW CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY JUST
SOUTH OF THE HALIFAX HARBOUR AREA AND WINDS DROP QUICKLY TO LIGHT
AS IT DOES SO. STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW CENTRE. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE LOW OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND COLDER
AIR MOVES IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INLAND AREAS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 04 MAY TO 0300Z 07 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON MONDAY THE REGION LIES IN A STRONG GUSTY
BUT DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY LOW.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP EARLY AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEADS TO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. GDPS AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
END/METOC-HFX
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