148
FXCN01 CWHF 310809
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
FRIDAY 31 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS TODAY.
- LOW CLOUD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIZZLE AND MIST TONIGHT.
- GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 31 JULY TO 0300Z 02 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A BROAD OPEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH LITTLE FLOW TO CLEAR IT OUT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. MIST AND FOG SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
THE APPROACHES THIS MORNING. THE RDPS AND HRDPS MODELS SUGGEST
CLOUD WILL BREAK UP OVER INLAND REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION...PERHAPS
PRODUCING ISOLATED TCU SHOWERS OR A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO REGIONS INLAND NORTH OF
THE HALIFAX AREA.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH MIST AND FOG SPREADING
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT ON SATURDAY AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN
BEHIND IT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER CLOUD SHOULD
GRADUALLY BREAK DURING THE DAY WITH MIST AND FOG DISSIPATING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IN SC IS FORECAST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 02 AUG TO 0300Z 05 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON SUNDAY WEAK RIDGING LIES THROUGH THE MARITIMES
LIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS FORECAST ALTHOUGH CIRRUS AHEAD OF
TROUGHING TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT MAINLY CLOUDY. PATCHY COASTAL
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON MONDAY THE GDPS CONTINUES TO BRING A SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTRE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST. IT PASSES THE LOW THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA BRINGING SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE GFS LACKS THIS LOW GIVING UNCERTAINTY TO THE MONDAY
FORECAST. THE TROUGHING ITSELF MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON BOTH THE GDPS AND GFS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
END/METOC-HFX
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