803
FXCN01 CWHF 151931
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
THURSDAY 15 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
- NEXT RAIN AND WIND EVENT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY.
- COOL BLAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 15 OCT TO 0300Z 17 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS AND HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: EASING NW FLOW TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO MARITIMES FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LEVEL ONE SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TOWARD
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WARNING ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THAT EVENT. RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING STEADY RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 10-15MM EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 17 OCT TO 0300Z 20 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS AND GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE RAIN SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY MOVES
OFF TO NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH
LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE,
BUT GRADUALLY THE WINDS SHIFT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY AS THE
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP.
BY SUNDAY, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY.
THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE SO SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE COOL AIRMASS, BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY AND SUNSHINE
AMOUNTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUD IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL VALUES.
END/METOC-HFX
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