366  
FXCN01 CWHF 132005  
 
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1200Z 13 AUG TO 2400Z 14 AUG.  
 
SFC COMMENTARY: AS ANALYZED.  
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.  
 
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTRED OVER  
NORTHERN QUEBEC HAS FINALLY ALLOWED THE SUN TO RETURN TO THE HALIFAX  
AREA TODAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR IN A NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS  
THE LAND. LOCAL SEA BREEZES HAVE MAINTAINED HUMIDITY ALONG THE COAST  
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCIES ACROSS  
THE MUNICIPALITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT UNTIL FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER  
DISTURBANCE TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY AND RISK OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SHORES OF NOVA SCOTIA.  
 
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION VALID: 15 AUG THRU 17 AUG.  
 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR  
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING  
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AN OFFSHORE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING TO GIVE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
IN AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEGUN BACKING AWAY FROM  
SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
AND ARE INSTEAD BEGINNING TO IMPLY THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL REMAIN AS A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY FOR MONDAY WITH THE FRENCH MODEL  
CALLING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE CANADIAN AND AMERICAN MODELS  
KEEPING THE SHOWERS FAR OFFSHORE. THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MONITORED FOR FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS AND CONFIDENCE.  
 
END/METOC-HFX  
 
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