372  
FXCN01 CWHF 300924  
 
KEY FORECAST POINTS:  
-COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TODAY HOVERING IN THE HIGH TEENS/LOW  
TWENTIES.  
 
-POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS  
SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.  
 
-A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO GIVE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON  
MONDAY.  
 
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX  
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER  
 
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0600Z 30 JAN TO 0400Z 01 FEB.  
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: MAINLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME VARIATION IN LOCAL CLOUD  
COVER WHICH IS RARELY WELL HANDLED BY THE MODEL OUTPUT.  
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE COLD WIND CHILLS  
THROUGHOUT TODAY HOVERING AROUND MINUS 20. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS  
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE MARLOAS BUT  
WILL BECOME PATCHY OVER THE HARBOUR AND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING  
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL EASE  
OVERNIGHT WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE.  
 
A WEAK TROUGH WILL TRACK IN FROM THE WEST GIVING LIGHT SNOW TO THE  
REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN  
IN THE AFTERNOON IN A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  
 
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX  
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER  
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 01 FEB TO 0400Z 04 FEB.  
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GDPS AND GFS HAVE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE  
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE  
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER  
WEST WHICH RESULTS IN 5 TO 8 CM IN SNOW FOR THE LOCAL AREA WHILE  
THE GDPS GIVES TRACE AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER EAST.  
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.  
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS STATED ABOVE, THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. THE GDPS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH  
OF THE PROVINCE WHILE THE GFS HAS SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING  
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
THE MODEL REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OTHERWISE WITH A RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER UNTIL MONDAY MORNING  
WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST GIVING PERIODS  
OF SNOW. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MIXED OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG  
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN A MODERATE TO  
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 
END/METOC-HFX  
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