787
FXCN01 CWHF 102010
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SUNDAY 10 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH MIST AND FOG TONIGHT.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY WITH FOG LIFTING TO THE
APPROACHES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
- CLEARING EARLY TUESDAY BUT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY BUT THICKENING CLOUD AND STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ON THURSDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 10 MAY TO 0300Z 12 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LINE ITSELF
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY MIST AND FOG
DEVELOPING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING EXTENSIVE. MID LEVELS BECOME A
BIT DRIER LATE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
ON MONDAY GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE DAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH LINE LIES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE APPROACHES. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
RDPS SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MIST AND FOG SHOULD LIFT TO
THE APPROACHES BY MID DAY BUT LIKELY MOVES INLAND AGAIN LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE MIST AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN
TO BREAK UP AND BECOME PATCHY NEAR MIDNIGHT AS A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW FINALLY DEVELOPS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE OVERNIGHT
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 12 MAY TO 0300Z 15 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. COASTAL WINDS TRY TO
DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY BECOME
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE APPROACHES BUT ARE LIKELY LIGHT
IN THE INNER HARBOUR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LEADS TO A MIX OF OF SUN AND CLOUD
IN THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND THE CHANCE OF A TCU SHOWER. SKIES
CLEAR AGAIN IN THE EVENING AS DAY TIME CONVECTION DISSIPATES.
ON WEDNESDAY A HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LEADS TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO SC/CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SHALLOW AND SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARITIMES. CLOUD
THICKENS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
END/METOC-HFX
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