697
FXCN01 CWHF 112002
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SATURDAY 11 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT - CHANCE OF WET FLURRIES.
- SUNNY BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY
- ANOTHER RAIN EVENT MONDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 11 APR TO 0300Z 13 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS / RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: TONIGHT, A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL START TO
BRING IN COOLER AIR. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR WET FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING.
ON SUNDAY, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE MORNING, BUT THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS FEELING A BIT COOL. THE BEST TIME OF THE DAY MAY BE
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE WIND DIES OUT AND THE TEMPERATURE MAY
TEASE 10C BY THIS TIME.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 13 APR TO 0300Z 16 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS / ICON
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON MONDAY A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE OPS AREA GOING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
FEATURE. RAIN FOG AND MIST LIKELY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
OUTLIER SHOWING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW IN THE AREA AT FIRST.
BY TUESDAY, THIS FEATURE PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
GDPS IS SHOWING IT REMAINING FAIRLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH DOESN'T QUITE SUCCEED IN PUSHING A DRIER
AIRMASS FULLY INTO THE REGION.
BY MID WEEK, THERE IS ANOTHER WARM FRONT TRYING TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST AND ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON
THE SUCCESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE WORDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN VAGUE
ON PURPOSE.
END/METOC-HFX
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