976
FXCN01 CWHF 030807
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
WEDNESDAY 03 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVING PATCHY MIST FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
- RIDGING GIVING DRYER AND WARMER AIR TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
- LAGGING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH HANGS UP TO THE NORTH GIVING SOME
CLOUD FRIDAY BEFORE MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.
- DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
THE WEEKEND THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SYSTEM.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 03 JUNE TO 0300Z 05 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION AFTER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH TUESDAY GIVING PATCHY MIST
FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT THEN CLEAR
THIS MORNING LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING
GIVING A DRYER AND WARMER AIRMASS TO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOCAL MIST OVERNIGHT THOUGH NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUNNY SKIES WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HRDPS IS GIVING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS SO HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES OF MID TO HIGH 20S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GUIDE HOW WARM THE HARBOUR AND BASIN WILL GET.. THE
MORE WESTERLY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS, THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 05 JUNE TO 0300Z 08 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS THEN LEANED INTO GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH FRIDAY BECOMING MEDIUM FOR THE WEEKEND.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SYSTEM THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WILL
GIVE SOME PATCHY CLOUD ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLIER IN THE DAY WHILE CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.
FOR THE WEEKEND.. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZED OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE 2
PROMINENT LOWS WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGHS DAISY CHAINED BETWEEN THE
TWO LOWS. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC, SQUEEZING THE SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH WHILE THEY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ON SATURDAY.. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE REGION. ON
SUNDAY.. THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLIP TO THE SOUTH,
FORCED BY THE BUILDING RIDGE, GIVING SOME SHOWERS BUT EXPECT THEM
TO MOVE OUT TO SEA WITH LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. WHILE GDPS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO GFS/ECMWF, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, THE TIMING AND WINDS
ARE A BIT DIFFERENT. AT THIS TIME, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
END/METOC-HFX
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