079
FXCN01 CWHF 042033
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
WEDNESDAY 04 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- COLD FRONT WILL RETURN WINTER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF FLURRIES ON THURSDAY.
- AN EARLY SPRING "WARM-UP" WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS DRIZZLE AND MIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 04 MAR TO 0400Z 06 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POKED INTO THE OPS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND GAVE A QUICK TASTE TO SOME EARLY SPRING WEATHER.
THAT ENDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES, SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN A CLOUD DECK LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ALLOWING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TO CONTINUE.
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND A BIT
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 06 MAR TO 0400Z 09 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ONCE THE OPS AREA DROPS INTO THE COLD AIR
THURSDAY, IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH A COOL RAW
EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THERE IS NO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME BUT WITH LOW CEILINGS MUCH OF THE DAY, THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF SOME FLURRIES, AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
ON SATURDAY, THE OPS AREA WILL START TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
START OUT EASTERLY BUT WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST WILL
SHOW A HIGH OF PLUS 5, THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE COOL FOR MOST OF
THE DAYTIME PERIOD. IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE WIND GOES SOUTHWEST IN
THE EVENING THAT TEMPERATURES START TO RISE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ALONG COAST IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION,
BUT THE GDPS OPENS THE TROUGH UP AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN IT. THE
OTHER FOREIGN GUIDANCE ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE TROUGHING AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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