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FXCN01 CWHF 151905
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SATURDAY 15 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUDY PERIODS TONIGHT
- THICKENING CIRRUS SUNDAY
- WET WEATHER MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 15 AUG TO 0300Z 17 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS INTO A RIDGE AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY.
A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS 20-50
NM TO THE EAST OF SHEARWATER THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. A LITTLE BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS FROM
DISSIPATING NEW BRUNSWICK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GIVE CLOUDY
PERIODS TO THE OP ZONE NEAR MIDNIGHT THEN THINGS CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE SLOWLY DURING SUNDAY
GIVING A SLOW INCREASE TO SKY COVERAGE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE PRODUCTION BUT A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
SHOULD TAKE OVER LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 17 AUG TO 0300Z 20 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THIS RUN OF THE CANADIAN MODEL AGREES QUITE WELL
WITH THE GFS NOW.
ON MONDAY, THE CLOUDS WILL STICK WITH THE OPS AREAS FOR THE DAY,
BUT THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE IFFY. THE
INITIAL PULSES OF PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE SCATTERED SO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE DAY.
TUESDAY IS THE WETTER DAY PARTICULARLY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL.
THE GDPS SOLUTION HAS PRETTY MUCH RAIN ALL DAY WITH A DECENT
SOUTHEAST WIND TO BOOT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS ARE BASICALLY SHOWING AN ENDING TO THE
RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN DRIER AIR INFILTRATING TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SUNSHINE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS
OF THE DAY ACCORDING THE GDPS, BUT I AM HESITANT TO PUT THAT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF DAY 5 FORECAST.
THE GDPS IS SHOWING 30-50 MM FOR THE COAST OF NS FOR THE EVENT.
THE GFS IS A MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE 10-20 MM ACROSS THE SWATH OF
THE PROVINCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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