285
FXCN01 CWHF 082103
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO GUST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- CLOUDY PERIODS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES CONTINUE IN COLD AIRMASS
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW.
- RIDGING MOVING IN LATE MONDAY TO GIVE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
MONDAY, MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
- ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM TO NORTH
AND SOUTH GIVING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1800Z 08 MAR TO 0400Z 10 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
GIVING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN THE SLACK GRADIENT THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
12 WING SHEARWATER AREA. EXPECT THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
BAY OF FUNDY WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, EASING WINDS AND GIVING DRYER
CONDITIONS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 10 MAR TO 0400Z 13 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING MEDIUM FOR WEDNESDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGING CONTINUES TO GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON CU LIKELY DEVELOPING. UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
EARLY TUESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. ONE ISSUE THAT THE RDPS
HINTS AT IS PATCHY STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR FUTURE
FORECASTS. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC
TO WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF 40N AS WELL AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ST.LAWRENCE. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. NOR ARE THEY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH. GDPS DEVELOPS A BAND OF PRE
FRONTAL SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THEN DISSIPATES THE FRONT AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH... CLEARING TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVING QUITE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNNY NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS DOES NOT MOVE
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EVEN
HAS SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN INLAND. ECMWF AND ICON SEEM IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GDPS, EVEN POSSIBLY FASTER SO HAVE USED GDPS FOR
FORECAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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