062
FXCN01 CWHF 181859
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
TUESDAY 18 AUG
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FOGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT.
- DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
- VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 18 AUG TO 0300Z 20 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A COMPLEX BUT WEAK LOW-PRESSURE AREA WITH A
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED YET AGAIN AND ARE NOW SHOWING WEAKER
WINDS FOR THE OPS ZONE TONIGHT.
THE RDPS MODEL IS NO LONGER SHOWING AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 25 MM, BUT
THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND HAS BEEN QUITE FLIPPY-FLOPPY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SATURATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AUGUST SUN ATTACKS THE MOISTURE AND FORCES THE
STRATUS TO BURN OFF. THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME SUNSHINE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO LIGHT
WESTERLY.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 20 AUG TO 0300Z 23 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL
COMMUNITY FOR A WEATHER SOLUTION HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE WEAK AND THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THEM
DIFFERENTLY. THERE ISN'T MUCH TO RELY ON FOR CHOOSING A MODEL TO
FOLLOW - THE DECISION PROBABLY RESTS ON HOW FAST THE FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY LEAVES THE AREA. THE WORDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN KIND OF
VAGUE AND PROBABLY LEANS TOWARD OPTIMISM - WHICH MAY BE A FATAL
FLAW.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page