632
FXCN01 CWHF 042003
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
MONDAY 04 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EASE THIS EVENING
- STRONG AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TREND.
- FRONTAL SYSTEM GIVING SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY AT TIMES HEAVY,
THURSDAY.
- SECONDARY TROUGH GIVING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 04 MAY TO 0300Z 06 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY THIS EVENING
THEN A RETURN TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHILE BACKING A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 33 KNOTS BUT
THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT PATCHY STRATUS MIST AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
HARBOUR AND BASIN WHILE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE APPROACHES.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 06 MAY TO 0300Z 09 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY IN HIGH WITH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FOREIGN
GUIDANCE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRATUS GIVING A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF MUCH OF THE
STRATUS LEAVING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. STRATUS MIST AND FOG WITH A PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY AT TIMES HEAVY AS THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS VEERING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY. ON FRIDAY..
MOST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL TROUGH GIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
NOVA SCOTIA SO HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIME BEING.
END/METOC-HFX
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