491
FXCN01 CWHF 141949
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
TUESDAY 14 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE IN STRATUS, FOG AND MIST THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
-POOR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 14 APR TO 0300Z 16 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS:
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MARLOAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY OVERDOING THE MARINE FOG SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH GIVES
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN DRIZZLE, MIST AND PATCHY FOG ON
WEDNESDAY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 16 APR TO 0300Z 19 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION:
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...
THE DAMP AND DREARY WEEK CONTINUES WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS RIDING
SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES GIVING A COOL AND DAMP EASTERLY FLOW.
THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE SOMEWHAT DRY BUT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS LIGHTEN ON
FRIDAY BETWEEN TROUGHS BUT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. ON SATURDAY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE HIGH IT IS LIKELY THE DRIEST DAY OF
THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.
END/METOC-HFX
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