247
FXCN01 CWHF 181854
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 18 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING GIVING 15 TO 30 MM.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
- CLEARING IN WAKE OF SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVING
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 18 JULY TO 0300Z 20 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN APPROACHING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THICKEN UP
CLOUDS THIS EVENING THEN GIVE A SHOWERS. SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY AND
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH LOW CLOUD WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY MIST OVER THE APPROACHES. EXPECT 15-30 MM OF
RAIN WITH VARIABLE TOTALS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN BACK
GRADUALLY TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PEAK WITH SUSTAINED
GALES OVER THE APPROACHES BEFORE DAWN. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER BACK TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 20 JULY TO 0300Z 23 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH AS FOREIGN GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGING WILL GIVE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WITH A MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
END/METOC-HFX
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