931
FXCN01 CWHF 141906
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
THURSDAY 14 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.
- RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
- LESS RAIN, MORE DRIZZLE, QUITE DAMP, COOL AND BREEZY FRIDAY.
- MUCH BETTER TREND FOR THE VICTORIA DAY WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 14 MAY TO 0300Z 16 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS, REJECTED HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL PUSH ITS RAIN SHIELD ONTO COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA THIS
EVENING. NEARLY 20 MM OF RAIN IS FORECAST. STRONG EAST WINDS
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BECOME STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR.
ON FRIDAY, THE LOW SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
RDPS IS SHOWING THE MAIN RAIN AREA EAST AND NORTH OF HALIFAX. BUT
IS SHOWING OF FEW MM OF MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR THE DAY. THE HRDPS
SOLUTION IS MUCH MUCH DRIER.. IN FACT, NO PRECIP IS FORECAST DURING
THE DAY PERIOD WITH THIS MODEL. THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY TURNS NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG. FRIDAY EVENING, A TROUGH FROM
THE WEST JOINS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE RAIN AXIS IS DRAWN
BACK INTO HALIFAX. ANOTHER 5-10 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 16 MAY TO 0300Z 19 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH, IF ANY, SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST.
THE LOW AND RAIN WILL DEPART EARLY SATURDAY AND SET UP, WHAT THE
MODELS SHOW AS A PRETTY FABULOUS VICTORIA DAY WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW 20C ALL AROUND THE AREA WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST BECOMING
SOUTHWEST BREEZE.
THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE ON A TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. BUT THE TROUGH IS QUITE DRY. MODELS DO SHOW A
BIT OF POP-UP TCU ACTIVITY IN THE ACTIVITY THAT IS CLOSER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, SO THAT WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ACTUAL VICTORIA DAY HOLIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIR BIT OF CIRRUS DURING PARTS OF THE DAY WHICH MAY SMEAR THE
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL.
END/METOC-HFX
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