788
FXCN01 CWHF 071941
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 07 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH REGION.
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF TROUGH TONIGHT.
- UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING GIVING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.
- NEXT TROUGHING APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT VERY SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARDS.
- A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE UP THIS TROUGH GIVING POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK... WORTH WATCHING FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 07 MAY TO 0300Z 09 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF TROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH WEAK TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S
SYSTEM WILL GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 09 MAY TO 0300Z 12 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS RIDGING GIVES LIGHT FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES, LOCAL
MIST AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW,
EXPECT ANY DAYTIME HEATING CU/TCU TO BE PUSHED UP TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION GIVING A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS... MAINLY INLAND. CLOUD WILL BEING TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR
MIDNIGHT. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FINALLY INTO NOVA SCOTIA. ALL THE
WHILE, EXPECT AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH LINE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY DRAG MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.. MORE SHOWERS THAN DRIZZLE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER
WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEREAFTER.
END/METOC-HFX
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