398
FXCN01 CWHF 112011
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 11 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SLIGHT RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
- RISING TEMPERATURES DRIZZLE MIST AND FOG TONIGHT.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOWERS DRIZZLE MIST AND FOG ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 11 MAR TO 0300Z 13 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE MARITIMES
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF IT TONIGHT. A DIP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR ZERO IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE LOW THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HOWEVER THE TURN TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING RISING AIR
TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND EXTENSIVE MIST AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST FOR 12 WING AND CFB HALIFAX PROPERTIES WITH THOSE
PROPERTIES NEAR THE OUTER HARBOUR AND APPROACHES POSSIBLY SEEING
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND EXTENSIVE MIST
AND FOG CONTINUES WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL.
WINDS WILL EASE THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE MOST
FREQUENT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TEMPERATURES FALL AND
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT. MIST AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND
SHIFT. SNOW AND ICE PELLET AMOUNTS OF 2 CM ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
FLURRIES TAPER OFF VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 13 MAR TO 0300Z 16 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: COLDER AIR AND A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. FLURRIES TAPER
OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN SKIES CLEAR UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS EASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK A RIDGE
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. GFS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GDPS MAYBE JUST A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.
A FAIR WEATHER DAY AND EASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES IN.
END/METOC-HFX
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