372
FXCN01 CWHF 300924
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TODAY HOVERING IN THE HIGH TEENS/LOW
TWENTIES.
-POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.
-A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO GIVE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON
MONDAY.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0600Z 30 JAN TO 0400Z 01 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MAINLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME VARIATION IN LOCAL CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS RARELY WELL HANDLED BY THE MODEL OUTPUT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE COLD WIND CHILLS
THROUGHOUT TODAY HOVERING AROUND MINUS 20. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE MARLOAS BUT
WILL BECOME PATCHY OVER THE HARBOUR AND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL TRACK IN FROM THE WEST GIVING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON IN A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 01 FEB TO 0400Z 04 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GDPS AND GFS HAVE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST WHICH RESULTS IN 5 TO 8 CM IN SNOW FOR THE LOCAL AREA WHILE
THE GDPS GIVES TRACE AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER EAST.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS STATED ABOVE, THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GDPS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PROVINCE WHILE THE GFS HAS SNOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MODEL REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OTHERWISE WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL GIVE FAIR WEATHER UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST GIVING PERIODS
OF SNOW. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MIXED OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
END/METOC-HFX
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