016
FXCN01 CWHF 150907
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SUNDAY 15 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING MORE COHESIVE FOR THE OUTLOOK
FORECAST PERIOD.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 15 FEB TO 0400Z 17 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING GIVING A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST.
PATCHY CLOUD LINGERING OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO BREAK FOR MONDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GIVES GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 17 FEB TO 0400Z 20 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: A BLEND OF GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS MORE WEIGHT ON THE TROUGH WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A FEW CENTIMETERS OF LIGHT SNOW WHILE THE GDPS REMAINS WITH JUST
A CHANCE AS THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH. THE
GFS WOULD ALSO GIVE A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY SO
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SMOOTHED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THAT
DAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND GDPS GIVE A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH FOR THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST.
END/METOC-HFX
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