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FXCN01 CWHF 030814
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 03 MAY
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
- RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND STRONG TO GALE FORCE EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE APPROACHES.
- GUSTY WINDS BACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
- CLEARING WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 03 MAY TO 0300Z 05 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY BRINGING
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE
EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER THE APPROACHES ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN BY MID MORNING WITH RAIN AT TIMES
HEAVY AND THE RISK OF A THUNDERSHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 35 MM ARE FORECAST. WITH COLDER AIR FORECAST TO
MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH
SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT FORECAST.
THE LOW CENTRE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF HALIFAX THIS
EVENING AND WINDS EASE SOMEWHAT WHILE THEY BACK TO NORTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST TO WEST. THEY REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY BEFORE
EASING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR ON MONDAY IN THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOW TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 05 MAY TO 0300Z 08 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE:
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND A STRONG
TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEADS
TO A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
WELL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS FORECAST MAINLY EARLY
IN THE MORNING. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH ITSELF FINALLY MAKES IT TO THE MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EASING AS THE TROUGH LINE MOVES IN. THE GDPS AND THE
GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
END/METOC-HFX
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