687
FXCN01 CWHF 190819
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 19 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-POOR CONDITIONS TODAY IN PATCHY DRIZZLE, MIST AND FOG WITH THE RISK
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
-LOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT IN FOG, MIST AND DRIZZLE.
-SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS THE REGION GETS INTO A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 19 JUNE TO 0300Z 21 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW STRATUS GIVING PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH EXTENSIVE
FOG AND MIST THIS MORNING. FOG AND MIST PATCHES WILL BECOME PATCHY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP FOG AND
MIST PATCHES THROUGHOUT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
HARBOUR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN STRATUS, FOG AND
MIST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH GIVING
AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 21 JUNE TO 0300Z 24 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS
DEVIATE WITH A WEAK FEATURE ON MONDAY AS THE GDPS GIVES MORE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS STEADY WITH
THE RIDGE GIVING FAIR CONDITIONS.
END/METOC-HFX
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