664
FXCN01 CWHF 190830
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
THURSDAY 19 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKENING NEAR NOON TODAY.
-CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
-SNOW STORM SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 19 FEB TO 0400Z 21 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL
END NEAR NOON TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES AND GIVES A CLEARING TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO END
NEAR NOON AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BROADENS. CLEAR AND CALM
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 21 FEB TO 0400Z 24 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN ELONGATED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SET-UP WILL LIKELY GENERATE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOR HALIFAX, LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BUT REMAIN AS THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
SHAPING UP TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A STORM DAY AS DEEPENING LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELLING COMMUNITY
ON THIS FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND SNOW
BEGINNING IN HALIFAX EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD END UP
BEING A SNOW EVENT THAT CANCELS SCHOOLS ACROSS THE PROVINCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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