156
FXCN01 CWHF 021911
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 02 SEP
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
-STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-RAINFALL ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR EVENT EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 02 SEP TO 0300Z 04 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS AND HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO
FORCAST GIVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING SE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 04 SEP TO 0300Z 07 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS AND GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING INTO REGION THURS
NIGHT AND LOW CENTRE STALLING NEAR CAPE BRETON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM. RAIN DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THEN
BECOMING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WRAP AROUND RAIN FROM THE STALLED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 25-45MM RANGE. WE
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
END/METOC-HFX
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