836
FXCN01 CWHF 020910
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
TUESDAY 02 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RAIN WILL REACH HALIFAX TONIGHT, AND MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- 30-50 MM RAIN EXPECTED. TRACE TO 2 CM OF WET SNOWFALL.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN STORE FOR FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 02 DEC TO 0400Z 04 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LEAVES NOVA SCOTIA THIS
MORNING AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OFF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
REACH SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SLIDE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE BAY
OF FUNDY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPS
AND EXPANDS ALONG THIS FRONT. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
MOVE INTO HALIFAX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME RAIN AT
TIMES HEAVY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PULL COLDER AIR INTO HALIFAX.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
NEAR NOON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PROJECT ABOUT 30-50 MM OF
RAIN, AND ZERO TO 5 CM OF WET SNOW AT THE END ACROSS THE OPERATIONS
AREA.
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OFF TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 04 DEC TO 0400Z 07 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON THURSDAY,A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY WITH LIGHT WINDS, BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURE UPWARD AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TROUGH. THE GDPS AND GFS DIFFER BY ABOUT 6 HOURS IN
TIMING THE TROUGH THROUGH HALIFAX - WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND
BRINGING COLD AIR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE GDPS
AND DO NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER FLURRIES.
FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A WINDY, FRIGID DAY AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE.
END/METOC-HFX
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