050
FXCN01 CWHF 250810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
MONDAY 25 MAY
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS
- IFR FLYING CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
- STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
- TAPERING PRECIPITATION AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 25 MAY TO 0300Z 27 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY IS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS. AT THIS TIME
25 TO 30 MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW CEILINGS AND EXTENSIVE FOG. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. RAIN
TAPERS TO DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING AND ENDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH WITH DIMINISHING AND VEERING WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING IN THE MORNING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 27 MAY TO 0300Z 30 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS MID-WEEK AND
SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS LOW WITH WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY MOSTLY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH FROM ANOTHER STREAM OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER A DECENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WRAPS
AROUND NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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