183
FXCN01 CWHF 160910
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SUNDAY 16 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LEVEL ONE WIND EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- 10 TO 20 MM OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
- WINDY, COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND WET FLURRIES MONDAY.
- WEATHER GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER IN THE WEEK.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 16 NOV TO 0400Z 18 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING AND TRACK THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO HALIFAX THIS MORNING AND END THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE LOW, STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH A WIND PEAK EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35 KNOTS AND A LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
POSTED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES PAST. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
END, BUT NOT BEFORE 10-20 MM OF RAIN FALLS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO A NON-ZERO RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS, BUT MOST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE OP AREA.
TONIGHT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN A COOLER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY WILL
BE NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MORNING ON MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOUR ARE LIKELY TO SEE WIND GUSTS REACHING GALE
FORCE, AND ANOTHER LEVEL ONE WIND SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE REQUIRED.
WINDS INSIDE THE HARBOUR MAY ONLY PEAK CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS. AS THE
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP, AND WITH A LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL, FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO
MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS. AS WELL, WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OPS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SHIP ADVISORY LEVELS OF 4-5M.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 18 NOV TO 0400Z 21 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE OPS AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
AND CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO A LIGHTER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUNNIER SKIES AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN.
END/METOC-HFX
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