729
FXCN01 CWHF 112044
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
WEDNESDAY 11 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TAPERING TO FLURRIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVING TOTAL ACCUMULATION NEAR 10 CM.
- STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
OVER THE APPROACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 11 FEB TO 0400Z 13 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING MEDIUM FOR WEEKEND.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF NS TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR ZERO SO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS SLOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL NEAR 10 TO
15CM EXPECTED BEFORE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE APPROACHES
TO THE HALIFAX HARBOUR AND THOSE AREAS EXPOSED TO AND EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
EAST. NW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 13 FEB TO 0400Z 16 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MID WEEK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. GDPS HINTING AT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO REGION FOR SATURDAY AND BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTH OF NS ON SUNDAY. THAT SOLUTION LOOKS OVER-COOKED SO
I REJECTED IT. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINANT. FOLLOWED ECMWF.
END/METOC-HFX
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