440
FXCN01 CWHF 190809
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
TUESDAY 19 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. PATCHY
MIST AND FOG MOVING OVER THE APPROACHES.
- PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MIST AND FOG.
- FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
- FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER AIR THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 19 MAY TO 0300Z 21 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THE REGION LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME EMBEDDED
ACC IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING A LIGHT SHOWER. THE RDPS
SHOWS THIS CLOUD MOVING NORTHWARD AND SKIES BECOMING A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER A BANK OF STRATUS AND FOG
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING NORTHEAST AND COULD BRING PATCHY FOG
AND MIST TO THE APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING.
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR OF
THE PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE HALIFAX HARBOUR AREA. THE HEATING INLAND
MAY BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUD AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND THE
PATCHY FOG AND MIST MAY MOVE OVER THE HARBOUR AND BASIN OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS FORECAST.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TO STRONG ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. LOW CLOUD SHOULD MOVE OUT IN THE MORNING AND A
GENERALLY SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST WITH QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND
ONCE AGAIN. THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HALIFAX AREA
IN THE EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 21 MAY TO 0300Z 24 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: BY THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND A DRIER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST WITH COOLER BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A RIDGE DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND KEEPS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY AND A
NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS OUT TO LIGHT. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
END/METOC-HFX
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