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FXCN01 CWHF 082034
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
SUNDAY 08 FEB
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
- MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EASE THIS
EVENING.
- MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT LATE MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH
BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 08 FEB TO 0400Z 10 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY, EXPECT A FEW SUNNY BREAKS THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF FLURRIES CONTINUE WITH THE COLD FLOW MOVING OVER THE
WARMER BAY/OCEAN WATERS. AS THE LOW THAT PASSED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WEAKENS SOMEWHAT, SO TO WILL THE WINDS,
THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MONDAY..
POSSIBLY BEYOND. MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY WITH A TROUGH BACKING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH GIVING SOME ENHANCEMENT LATE MONDAY. MOST OF THE
SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER EAST THOUGH SOME WILL
FALL OVER THE LOCAL REGION.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 10 FEB TO 0400Z 13 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST
RECENT 00Z RUN. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD/CHANCE OF FLURRIES EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND IS PINCHED OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD TO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY.. MOST MODELS NOW HAVE THE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
TROUGH THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE KEEPING MUCH OF THE HEAVIER
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA OR OFFSHORE. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT GIVING A COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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