387
FXCN01 CWHF 120812
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
FRIDAY 12 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRATUS MIST AND FOG RETREATING TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THEN A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD.
- STRATUS MIST AND FOG MOVING IN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 12 JUNE TO 0300Z 14 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: EXTENSIVE STRATUS MIST AND FOG OVER WATERS AROUND
NOVA SCOTIA IS EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT. THIS HAS
MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HALIFAX AREA AND LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW CLOUD SHOULD
BURN BACK TO THE COAST WITH THE MORNING SUN. HOWEVER THE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. THIS COULD KEEP FEEDING LOW
CLOUD ONSHORE AND THE MIST AND FOG MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE SHEARWATER AREA MAY SEE OCCASIONAL STRATUS CEILINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNSHINE OVER THE INLAND AREAS LOOKS TO PRODUCE
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF TCU
AND SHOWERS FOR AREAS MAINLY WELL NORTH OF THE HALIFAX REGION.
MIST AND FOG IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING IF
NOT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. STRATUS LOOKS TO BE
THICKER TONIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE.
CLOUD WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE MIST AND FOG IS FORECAST FOR EARLY
SATURDAY. THE THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MARITIMES BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD TO THE REGION
ABOVE THE LOWER STRATUS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NEAR NOON AND CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH MOVES BY. THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 14 JUNE TO 0300Z 17 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING LEAVES A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND A BIT OF A COL OVER THE
PROVINCE. THIS LEADS TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOWER CLOUD
DISSIPATES IN THE MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD.
ANOTHER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY BRINGS
A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH CLOUD AND PATCHY MIST AND FOG AGAIN.
LOCAL DRIZZLE IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING THEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP.
ON TUESDAY A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS FORECAST BUT AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LEADS TO POSSIBLE DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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