447
FXCN01 CWHF 271844
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 27 AUG
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- THICKENING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY.
- MOISTURE MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY AND LEAVING EARLY SATURDAY.
- RETURN TO SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 27 AUG TO 0300Z 29 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INFLUX FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH FROM QUEBEC. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD FROM A DISORGANIZED BLOB
SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE. STRATUS WITH SOME PATCHY MIST AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES AS
THE MOISTURE BLOB SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE GETS BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. MID AND HIGH CLOUD LAYERS THICKEN UP FROM
THE WEST AND THEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY AND
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE DAY, AND A MARGINAL STRONG
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 29 AUG TO 0300Z 01 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN MAYBE STARTS TO TAKE THE SHAPE OF AN EARLY FALL PATTERN.
ON SATURDAY, THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES OUT EARLY AND THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A WEAK SHOT OF NORTHWEST WINDS
BLOW IN AND SKIES START TO CLEAR.
ON SUNDAY, A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
LATER IN THE DAY, SPILLING CLOUD INTO OUR OPS AREA. AS WELL, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY SHARPENS UP LATE IN THE DAY AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY MORNING, A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BLOW
IN WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page