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FXCN01 CWHF 202015
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
MONDAY 20 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A FEW CLOUDS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING.
- LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON TUESDAY.
- A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD ON WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 20 APR TO 0300Z 22 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR AS WELL.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
SHOWN ON THE RDPS AND IT BRINGS CLOUD INTO SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
AND THEN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN
UNDER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOME ON SHORE SEA BREEZES AT
THE COAST CAUSING SOME INLAND CONVERGENCE. THE CLOUD OVER THE
REGION THEN IS AIDED BY THIS CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE AT FIRST SOME
FLURRIES THEN SHOWERS OVER MORE INLAND REGIONS OF THE PROVINCE. THE
COAST MAY BE MORE SUNNY AS THE SEA BREEZE BLOWS CLOUD INLAND.
AS THE SEA BREEZE DIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE INLAND CLOUD MAY
DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE HALIFAX AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BECOMES
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 22 APR TO 0300Z 25 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE IS NOTHING REALLY SYNOPTIC GOING ON DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS MAINLY WEAK RIDGING WHICH GETS
REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALOFT THERE IS
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING CREATING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE IS WEAK SURFACE FLOW AS WELL.
BY FRIDAY, THE SITUATION IS ABOUT THE CHANGE THOUGH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEWFOUNDLAND RETROGRADES INTO THE EASTERN
MARITIMES. CLOUDS AND SNOW WRAPPED AROUND THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES, MOSTLY THE EASTERN MARITIMES. THE
PRECIP SHIELD REACHES HALIFAX DURING THE DAY, BUT DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO MAINLY LIQUID FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT LEAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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