849
FXCN01 CWHF 060910
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SATURDAY 06 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY.
- PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SUNDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF SNOW ON MONDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 06 DEC TO 0400Z 08 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE APPROACHES EARLY THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE RIDGE A FAIR BIT OF SC/CU IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION AS LOW LEVELS ARE PATCHY MOIST UNSTABLE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE SC/CU IS FORECAST. HOWEVER A SMALL WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE HALIFAX AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IT
BRINGS CLOUD AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. IN ITS WAKE LATER
IN THE MORNING MODERATE WETS THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 08 DEC TO 0400Z 11 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A WEAK TROUGH OR LOW COMING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IS SHOWN BY THE GDPS TO REDEVELOP A NEW CENTRE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AND PASS BY SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY MORNING
A BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE LOCAL REGION. THE GDPS AND GFS HAVE
NOW BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS FOR A
COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN IT
HAS BEEN ON THIS FEATURE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATER IN THE DAY.
ON TUESDAY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BACK TO MORE WEST AS A RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MARITIMES MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. A COLD MAINLY
SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRING CLOUD AND FLURRIES
THEN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND WINDS BECOME WESTERLY IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
END/METOC-HFX
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