574
FXCN01 CWHF 012003
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 01 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUDY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 01 APR TO 0300Z 03 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEER THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CELL BUILDS
NORTH OF THE MARITIMES AND TROUGH LINE LINGERS SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A LIGHT FLURRY OR TWO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH COLD MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. BUT I LEFT THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY REALLY SHOWING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN MORE
ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW TO OUR NORTH.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 03 APR TO 0300Z 06 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT TOWARD THE MARITIMES. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OR ICE PELLETS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERN END OF THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY AND A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
WIND IS FORECAST.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE REGION LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL TROUGH DIPS THROUGH EARLY AND
SHOWERS END, WINDS BECOME STRONG NORTH THEN MODERATE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY SEES THE NEXT LOW MOVE THROUGH WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFTING TO STRONG SOUTHWEST EARLY AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS NOVA SCOTIA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THE DAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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