974
FXCN01 CWHF 300907
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
FRIDAY 30 JAN
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- WIND CHILL AND FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS TODAY
- NOREASTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 30 JAN TO 0400Z 01 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHURNING EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO
THE REGION TODAY. COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AND FREEZING SPRAY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SATURDAY WHICH WILL EASE FREEZING SPRAY AND WIND CHILL
CONDITIONS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 01 FEB TO 0400Z 04 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: BLENDED GDPS WITH ECMWF AND GFS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: INTENSE NOREASTER FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF NS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTIES. GDPS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK LESS SNOW OVER HALIFAX THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. I BLENDED GDPS WITH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION.
SNOWFALL LIKELY TO BE IN THE 15-30CM RANGE, BUT IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THOSE NUMBERS. GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST WITH
THIS FEATURE. STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY OFF SHORE.
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM REGION MONDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO TUESDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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