754
FXCN01 CWHF 140908
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SATURDAY 14 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER TODAY.
-INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
-LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE OUTLOOK FORECAST.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 14 FEB TO 0400Z 16 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRPDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR WEATHER TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH OF THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION GIVING A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS IT PASSES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS A CHANCE OF FLURRIES CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 16 FEB TO 0400Z 19 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: GRADUALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM THE GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
GDPS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY, AND ACTUALLY PRESENTS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. ALMOST ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.
ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA IS RELATIVELY SMALL REGARDLESS
OF THE SOLUTION, THERE COULD BE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN WIND, CLOUD
COVER, AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE OUTLOOK FORECAST. THIS DIFFERENCE
BECOMES GLARING MOVING SOUTH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
OPERATION AREAS AS THE GDPS BASICALLY OMITS WHAT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SHORES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING NEWFOUNDLAND MID-WEEK. THE GDPS HAS BECOME THE
OUTLIER IN THIS SCENARIO AND WILL BE DISREGARDED AS SO IN THE COMING
DAYS IF PERFORMANCE CONSISTENCY DOES NOT IMPROVE.
END/METOC-HFX
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