153
FXCN01 CWHF 022007
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SATURDAY 02 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
- STRONG TO GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER THE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- 30 TO 40 MM OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING
AND ENDING LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 02 MAY TO 0300Z 04 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY FOR THE LOCAL REGION AND INTENSIFYING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GIVE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE INNER HARBOUR AND GALES
GUSTING STORM FORCE 50 KNOTS OVER THE APPROACHES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AND EASING TO 25 GUSTING 35
KNOTS WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND PROPERTIES OR AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION TO SEE RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AS CONDITIONS COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM. 30 TO 40 MM OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 04 MAY TO 0300Z 07 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FORECAST...
ON MONDAY THE REGION LIES IN A STRONG GUSTY BUT DRIER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY LOW. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR UP EARLY AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEADS TO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. GDPS AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
END/METOC-HFX
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