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FXCN01 CWHF 211944
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
TUESDAY 21 JULY
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. A
RAINFALL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR CFB HALIFAX FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS...
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING CLOUD AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT.
- RAIN BEGINNING NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY AND TAPERING TO SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 21 JULY TO 0300Z 23 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: WEAK RIDGING LIES TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING AND PATCHY CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUD IS FORECAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MARITIMES. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH MIST AND FOG DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND SPREADING INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENT INDICATION THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER A RAINFALL ADVISORY OR
WARNING MAYBE REQUIRED FOR THE HALIFAX AREA IN IN A FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATE.
RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND WINDS SHIFT TO MODERATE TO
STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 23 JULY TO 0300Z 26 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH AS WELL. SHOWER BANDS
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AGAIN LIKELY OVER EASTERN SHORE.
THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SATURDAY SEES THE REGION IN A FLAT
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. A TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTH BRINGS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
END/METOC-HFX
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