597
FXCN01 CWHF 180810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
FRIDAY 18 SEP
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUD AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
- CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 18 SEP TO 0300Z 20 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MARITIMES TODAY WILL BRING CLOUD AND SHOWERS AS WELL AS MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD SCATTERED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING IN
BEHIND THE TOUGH. IN ITS WAKE MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL.
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST IN THE DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO EASE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 20 SEP TO 0300Z 23 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL LIES OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER MID
AND HIGH CLOUD IS FORECAST TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN
BEHIND THE RIDGE.
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS A LOW CENTRE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE HALIFAX AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND CLOUD BEGINS TO
BREAK UP SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY.
ON TUESDAY THE REGION LIES IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LYING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUD IS EXPECTED. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
END/METOC-HFX
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