299
FXCN01 CWHF 250814
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 25 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SUNNY, A LITTLE WARMER TODAY.
- CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT.
- A LITLE BREEZIER MONDAY WITH CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY.
- TURNS COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 25 OCT TO 0300Z 27 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING AND
THAT RIDGE WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. SKIES
STAY CLEAR.
SKIES STAY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
IN THE APPROACHES BUT INSIDE THE HARBOUR, RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD
DROP THE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS LIGHTER.
MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE
INCREASING INSIDE THE HARBOUR. CLOUD FROM A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEW BRUNSWICK WILL INVADE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
BUT THE SHOWERS LIE BEHIND IT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 27 OCT TO 0300Z 30 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL
START OUT STRONG AND GUSTY BUT WILL EASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GDPS IS SHOWING SKIES
BEING FAIRLY SUNNY, BUT WITH THE WINDS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF NORTHWEST
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP OFF THE GULF
OF ST. LAWRENCE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ASSUMES CONTROL OVER THE
WEATHER AND IT HAS BUILT SOUTH OF YARMOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BENDING TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LIES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, AND
A WARM FRONT IS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. CLOUD WILL
SPILL OVER INTO HALIFAX AND AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR,
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THE GDPS IS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES, BUT THAT IS TOO MUCH DETAIL
FOR A DAY 5 FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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