946
FXCN01 CWHF 101901
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 10 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
-SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING.
-IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEEKEND.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 10 JULY TO 0300Z 12 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TONIGHT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND MIST. MOST MODELS GIVING A
FEW SHOWERS FOR HALIFAX AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND DONE BY
NOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO GUSTS TO 20KT OVER THE
APPROACHES TO HALIFAX HARBOUR. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS, WINDS EASE FROM THE
NORTH AND PATCHY FOG AND MIST DISSIPATE.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 15 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR SAT AND SUN. MEDIUM FOR MONDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SAT AND SUN. ON
MONDAY MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUD IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR HALIFAX, WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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