959
FXCN01 CWHF 220728
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 22 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE TO PASS THROUGH LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
-STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.
-AROUND 20 MM OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE HALIFAX REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
-RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 22 OCT TO 0300Z 24 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WILL PASS BY THE
ATLANTIC SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS
OVER THE OCEAN AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO LIE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND
ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MARITIMES. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE HALIFAX
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS FROM THE PASSING STORM ARE ALSO EXPECTED, AND A
GENERAL TOTAL OF AROUND 20 MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS MIGHT AFFECT THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TRANSITION TO LESS
VOLATILE RAIN THIS EVENING THEN END OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST GAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 24 OCT TO 0300Z 27 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NIL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TO MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
END/METOC-HFX
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