485
FXCN01 CWHF 070909
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SATURDAY 07 FEB
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FLURRIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AS SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO TRACK BY
WELL TO THE SOUTH UNTIL TUESDAY.
- LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH/LOW MOVING
INTO THE REGION AND MODEL DISCREPANCY ON INTENSITY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 07 FEB TO 0400Z 09 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RPDS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE FIRST INTENSE SYSTEM HAS PASSED WELL SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE A SECOND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY INTO
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS GIVING A
FEW FLURRIES TODAY/TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY.. CLOUDS BREAK OPEN A BIT
ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE SOME SUN BEFORE FILLING BACK IN LATE IN THE
DAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 09 FEB TO 0400Z 12 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: WITH SYSTEMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW
MOVING RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.. EXPECT A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO
DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVING A FEW FLURRIES TO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
LABRADOR/QUEBEC MONDAY AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY
WILL GIVE A GREATER CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES PINCHED OFF AS IT TRIES
TO MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA, NOT REALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH CLEARING ..
THOUGH SOME IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY.. A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION. GDPS
DRIES OUT A LOT OF THE SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH WELL SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL REGIONS
DRAWING IN A EASTERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PROVINCE BY LATE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
THEN TRACKS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT
GIVING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW GIVEN HOW DIVERGENT THE SOLUTIONS ARE AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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