595
FXCN01 CWHF 221843
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
SUNDAY 22 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A MESS, BIG SNOW, LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN.
- STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS.
- COASTAL FLOODING STATEMENT FOR HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 22 FEB TO 0400Z 24 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USDED RDPS AND HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LATEST RUN OF RDPS IS KEEPING MONDAY LOW A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE LEADING TO A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE SNOW AND LESS
RAIN. LATEST HRDPS IS STILL A BIT CLOSER THE COAST THAN THE RDPS
TRACK SO STILL SHOWING A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN MONDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THAT THE RDPS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS STAGE I DID NOT
JUMP ON IT. I MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AS ESTABLISHED BY PREVIOUS
RUNS AND CURRENT HRDPS. MODELS SHOWING 20 TO 25CM SNOW..EXCEPT
LATEST RDPS SHOWING MORE THAN THAT FOR REASONS EXPLAINED ABOVE.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS ARE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LEVEL 3 WIND
WARNING FOR GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS IS IN EFFECT.
THE PUBLIC WEATHER OFFICE HAS ALSO ISSUED A PUBLIC ALERT FOR THE
COASTLINE OF HALIFAX COUNTY FOR HIGH TIDE TIME MONDAY EVENING.
MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS: 5 TO 7 METRES, BREAKING UPON APPROACH TO
SHORE. STORM SURGE COMBINED WITH WAVE ACTION NEAR HIGH TIDE MAY
RAISE WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. PEOPLE IN
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN CASE THEY BEGIN
TO WORSEN.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 24 FEB TO 0400Z 27 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AFTER THE IMPACT OF THE WINTER STORM LATE MONDAY
AND OVERNIGHT, BY MORNING ON TUESDAY, THE EVENT IS WINDING DOWN.
IF SHOWERS ARE PRESENT THEY WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING THEN END. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE LATER
IN THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY SEES A RIDGE MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION MAKING WAY
FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. MODELS SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EVENING. STILL TO EARLY TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH THIS SO I WILL CALL
IT FLURRIES BEGINNING THE THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A WEAK TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING
THROUGH GIVING FLURRIES OR SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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