860
FXCN01 CWHF 090913
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SUNDAY 09 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER TODAY.
-CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT IN RAIN.
-STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY WITH A PERIODS OF RAIN.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 09 NOV TO 0400Z 11 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUD WILL BUILD DOWN TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT BECOMING STRONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MIST BEFORE MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POOR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, FOG AND MIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
MONDAY. GUSTS OF GALES 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE APPROACHES
MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. A RAINFALL ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY FOR MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30 MM EXPECTED GIVEN THE LATEST DATA.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 11 NOV TO 0400Z 14 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION
WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS. MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY ALTHOUGH EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO DROP OVERNIGHT GIVING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND GDPS ARE SHOWING A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVING PERIODS OF RAIN BEFORE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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