685
FXCN01 CWHF 220810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
FRIDAY 22 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- CLOUDS MOVE IN SUNDAY
- RAIN AND WIND MOVES IN MONDAY
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 22 MAY TO 0300Z 24 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
OVER THE AREA TO REMAIN MAINLY BLUE WITH PASSING CLOUDY BITS. IT
ALSO KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TODAY AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE APPROACHES ARE LIKELY TO
DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 24 MAY TO 0300Z 27 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY THE GDPS. THE GFS IS FASTER THIS
RUN BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE CANADIAN VERSION.
THE RIDGE THAT HELD CLOUDS AT BAY FOR TWO DAYS GIVES UP ON SUNDAY
AND THE CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE REGION.
THE MODELS NOW RAIN ONSET ON MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE RAIN FOR THE
DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH WERE ON THE ORDER OF 50 MM WITH
YESTERDAYS RUN HAVE DROPPED TO 20 MM WITH THIS 00Z RUN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS ON TUESDAY,
AND SHOULD INVOKE A CLEARING TREND.
END/METOC-HFX
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