366
FXCN01 CWHF 132005
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1200Z 13 AUG TO 2400Z 14 AUG.
SFC COMMENTARY: AS ANALYZED.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTRED OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC HAS FINALLY ALLOWED THE SUN TO RETURN TO THE HALIFAX
AREA TODAY, BRINGING DRIER AIR IN A NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS
THE LAND. LOCAL SEA BREEZES HAVE MAINTAINED HUMIDITY ALONG THE COAST
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCIES ACROSS
THE MUNICIPALITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY AND RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SHORES OF NOVA SCOTIA.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION VALID: 15 AUG THRU 17 AUG.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AN OFFSHORE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING TO GIVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEGUN BACKING AWAY FROM
SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND ARE INSTEAD BEGINNING TO IMPLY THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AS A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY FOR MONDAY WITH THE FRENCH MODEL
CALLING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE CANADIAN AND AMERICAN MODELS
KEEPING THE SHOWERS FAR OFFSHORE. THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS AND CONFIDENCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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