524
FXCN01 CWHF 121954
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SATURDAY 12 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TONIGHT IN FOG AND MIST.
-CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS AND
RECEDES TO THE APPROACHES IN THE MORNING.
-UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR MONDAY'S FORECAST.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 14 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS FOG JUST OFFSHORE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. FOG AND MIST
WILL BECOME EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL REBOUND THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING AS FOG AND MIST
LIFT AND BURN BACK TO THE APPROACHES IN THE MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH FOG AND MIST MOVING BACK IN OVER THE HARBOUR SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 14 JULY TO 0300Z 17 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MAINLY USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE GDPS CONTINUES TO BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
NEGLECT THE FORMER FEATURE, CONTINUING TO CAUSE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
MONDAY FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA WOULD SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING. AS THIS FOG AND STRATUS BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THIS MOISTURE BACK IN OVER THE REGION WITH SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE WOULD CONTINUE TO GIVE FAIR WEATHER AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING.
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... THE IMPACT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
END/METOC-HFX
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