332
FXCN01 CWHF 190908
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
WEDNESDAY 19 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY/TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A BIT
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS.
- FRIDAY LOW PASSES EAST OF REGION GIVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
- WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES GIVES A FEW SHOWERS
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ON IT GIVING RAIN SATURDAY,
POSSIBLY HEAVY.
- CHANCE OF WET SNOW BEHIND LOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME CLEARING
SUNDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 19 NOV TO 0400Z 21 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY BEFORE A BIT OF CU/SC
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THEN CLEARS THIS EVENING AGAIN. RIDGING
MOVES IN TO WEAKEN FLOW TONIGHT. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIST
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY ONCE AGAIN TO START THURSDAY BEFORE A BIT OF MID
CLOUD SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE NEAR MIDDAY THURSDAY. CLOUD CLEARS OFF
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 21 NOV TO 0400Z 24 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.. MODIFIED A BIT WITH ECMWF/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH THEN TRACKS UP TOWARDS
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA/CABOT STRAIT WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THAT LOW MOVES OFF, A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO GIVE A FEW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEAKENING TROUGH
TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION. GFS PASSES CLOSEST TO ATLANTIC
COAST, GDPS A BIT MORE OFF THE COAST AND ECMWF FURTHER OFFSHORE
YET. THOUGH ALL GIVE RAIN WITH DIFFERENT AMOUNTS. GDPS WINDS UP THE
LOW THE STRONGEST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW FASTER GIVING WET SNOW/SNOW OVER INLAND PROPERTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE REGION GIVING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD. AGAIN.. THE GDPS GIVES
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE MOST INTENSE
LOW. HAVE MODIFIED THE WINDS TO A BIT WEAKER GIVEN GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH WINDS EASING TO WESTERLY AS RIDGE MOVES IN.
END/METOC-HFX
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