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FXCN01 CWHF 252008
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 25 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
- A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVING
RAIN AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
- RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST GIVING COLD AIR IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 25 MAR TO 0300Z 27 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGHS THAT AFFECTED THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOUD AHEAD OF
AN INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING THEN CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE REGION NEAR NOON. THERE IS A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR THE REGION THOUGH 10 TO 15 MM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NEAR 20 MM OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE IF THE BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER LAND INSTEAD OF REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS TIME, WINDS WILL REMAIN
JUST BEFORE ADVISORY CRITERIA AS LOW LEVELS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT AS THE
INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN, AT TIMES HEAVY,
WILL REDEVELOP NEAR DAWN AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALSO DEVELOP
AROUND THE SAME TIME.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 27 MAR TO 0300Z 30 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS NOTED ABOVE, STRONG WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION NEAR MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER THURSDAY. PEAK INTENSITIES OF
BOTH ARE EXPECTED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
KNOTS AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 MM WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. SOME SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE COLDER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOPS ON THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION GIVING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD TO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY AS IT PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST GIVING DRYER/COLDER AIR. EXPECT A GENERAL MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUD WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY GIVING A LIGHT FLOW AND A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES THOUGH LESS
THAN ON SATURDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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