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FXCN01 CWHF 082028
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
THURSDAY 08 JAN
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-A SIGNIFICANT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 08 JAN TO 0400Z 10 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT AS A
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ADVANCE LATE ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT IN SHOWERS AND MIST.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 10 JAN TO 0400Z 13 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: POOR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND MIST WILL IMPROVE
ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY CHANGING TO RAIN WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION LIKELY DURING THE PHASE CHANGE AND MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THE GFS IS QUICKER BRINGING IN SNOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL
MARITIMES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FLURRIES LATER
ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW SETTLES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME, A
SOLUTION FOR DAY 5 WILL ALWAYS COME WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMINGS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPING/AMOUNTS.
END/METOC-HFX
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