462
FXCN01 CWHF 242004
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
THURSDAY 24 SEP
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- INCREASING CLOUD AND NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT.
- CLOUDY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY.
- CLOUD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 24 SEP TO 0300Z 26 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A WEST TO EAST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
LIE OVER THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING GIVING LIGHT WINDS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WEAKENS TONIGHT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH
CLOUD SPILLS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER.
ON FRIDAY THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD
AND IT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THERE LATER IN THE DAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
REGION. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. HOWEVER ONSET OF THE RAIN OVER THE
HALIFAX AREA OCCURS LATER AND LATER ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THE
LATEST RDPS DOES NOT HAVE THE RAIN MOVING INTO HALIFAX UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY EVENING OR PERHAPS EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN MOVING IN.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 SEP TO 0300Z 29 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE
OUTER HARBOUR AND APPROACHES ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CLOUD AND SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. WINDS EASE ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW CENTRE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN BUT CLOUD AND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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