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FXCN01 CWHF 160753
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 16 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN WEAK TROUGH.
AGAIN WARM TEMPS.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 16 MAY TO 0300Z 18 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS AND RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGE MOVING INTO REGION TODAY. WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY
GIVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 18 MAY TO 0300Z 21 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS GDPS AND GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MAINLY SUNNY FOR HOLIDAY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MARITIMES. TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS..THE
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH ARE NOT YET CLEAR LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE
IN WEDNESDAY FORECAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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