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FXCN01 CWHF 292004
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 29 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS TONIGHT.
- CLOUDY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WITH DRIZZLE AND MIST
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND FRIDAY.
- WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 29 APR TO 0300Z 01 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA COMBINED WITH A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GIVE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HALIFAX AREA WILL REMAIN IN CLOUD
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE
OR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA NEAR THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WITH THE
PERSISTENT EAST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. IT IS LIKELY THAT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST
WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE OPS AREAS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THE TROUGH LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND CLOSING IN ON THE HALIFAX REGION. AS A RESULT THERE IS A CHANCE
OF LATE DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THEY DO MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 01 MAY TO 0300Z 04 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE BECOMING LOW.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PRECIOUS DISCUSSION....
ON FRIDAY, A RE-INVIGORATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHED ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODELS BY 3-6 HOURS, BUT THE IMPACT IS A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTING TO WEST BY LATER IN THE DAY. RAIN START AND END TIMES VARY
BY THE SAME 3-6 HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD BE A ALMOST FULL-DAY WET
EVENT.
A WESTERLY FLOW OF DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH SETTING UP
A PRETTY DECENT SATURDAY FORECAST.. BECOMING THE BEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND.
WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE FOR
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE BRINGING GALE FORCE
WINDS OR STRONGER AND HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WHEREAS, THE AMERICAN
GFS COMPLETELY MISSES NOVA SCOTIA. AND OF COURSE, THE EURO MODELS
ARE ALMOST IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS OVERDONE, IT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND MAY BE
ONTO SOMETHING. IT WILL NOT BE REJECTED, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN ITS
FORECAST IS QUITE LOW.
END/METOC-HFX
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