579
FXCN01 CWHF 220925
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SATURDAY 22 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, MAYBE 5 MM.
-CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
-CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON MONDAY.
-SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 22 NOV TO 0400Z 24 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AFTER A RELATIVELY BENIGN MORNING AND
EARLY-AFTERNOON TODAY IN A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND HALIFAX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
EASTWARD BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE
ANY WORSE THAN MVFR IN THE RAIN AND AROUND 5 MM ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. CLEARING WILL THEN HAPPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MARITIMES FROM THE WEST AND MODERATE/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. SUNNY BECOMING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
ALONG WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT HOLDS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE FOR THE DAY.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 24 NOV TO 0400Z 27 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND GIVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY MONDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND TRIES TO SPAWN
A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IN THE HALIFAX REGION WILL
LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS BUT THE COOLER FLURRY REGIME WILL NOT BE FAR
OFF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD FOR TUESDAY, WITH CIRRUS CLOUD LIKELY
MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE
IT WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH SHOWERS AS A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES OBLONG AND SENDS A
PRONOUNCED WAVE OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WINDS SHOULD BE
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE LEADING SIDE OF INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY, THEN MODERATE WESTERLIES ON TUESDAY AND
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES ON WEDNESDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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