240
FXCN01 CWHF 170804
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 17 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT LOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY.
- AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE PATCHY DRIZZLE, A FEW
SHOWERS AND THE RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO THE REGION BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DEVELOPING TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL SPREAD CLOUD AND SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART MONDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 17 JULY TO 0300Z 19 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, EXTENSIVE
MIST FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER MUCH
OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONG SUN TO BURN OFF A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATUS/MIST/FOG OVER LAND TODAY. HOWEVER,
THE CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE HALIFAX REGION WILL
KEEP THE STRATUS CLOUD MOVING INLAND FROM THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRATUS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REGARDLESS, SUNNY BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BASIN REGION, THOUGH NOT LIKELY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT, THE CLOUD WILL THICKEN UP AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE MIST AND FOG OVER THE APPROACHES
WILL MOVE INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS/RISK OF THUNDERSHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE/CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS.. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
APPROACHES WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THEN VEER TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 19 JULY TO 0300Z 22 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGING WILL GIVE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY SATURDAY
THOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY. A TROUGH BEINGS TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY SUNDAY GIVING CLOUD TO THE REGION AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
GDPS NOW BRINGS THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FASTER THAN THE
GDPS.. THOUGH LIKELY TO BE AN AFTERNOON START TIME. THE TROUGH,
WITH DEVELOPING LOWS EMBEDDED, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT GIVING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND LIE OVER OR JUST EAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING
THOUGH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS LEFT IN ITS WAKE WILL GIVE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE
MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD BY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
END/METOC-HFX
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