764
FXCN01 CWHF 271945
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SATURDAY 27 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRATUS MIST AND FOG TONIGHT THEN LIFTING SUNDAY MORNING.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 27 JUNE TO 0300Z 29 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A VERY FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY GIVING LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS AS WELL WITH STRATUS MIST AND FOG AT
THE COAST MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. DAYTIME CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE INLAND REGIONS OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE PROVINCE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE HALIFAX AREA.
MIST AND FOG BURNS BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN BECOMES PATCHY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AND DAY TIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN LEADS TO INLAND CONVECTION. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE CONVECTION COULD DRIFT SOUTH TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE HALIFAX AREA.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 29 JUNE TO 0300Z 02 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. BUT, THIS DEVELOPMENT HELPS TO
ESTABLISH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT, AND FOG PRODUCTS
ARE SHOWING A DISPERSION OF THE LOW CLOUD OVERNIGHT. THIS SETS UP
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME WARM TO HOT WEATHER TO MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. MODEL
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR DOCKYARD TEMPERATURES TO REACH 25C OR HIGHER
BOTH DAYS. ON CANADA DAY WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS TURN SOUR. A WARM
FRONT FROM A NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO LOW EXTENDS OVER THE MARITIMES
WITH A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. AS WELL,
COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REFORM AS A HUMID AIRMASS
RETURNS.
END/METOC-HFX
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