466
FXCN01 CWHF 050914
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
FRIDAY 05 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AND FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES DIMINISHING TODAY
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 05 DEC TO 0400Z 07 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE OVER THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLIES WELL AHEAD OF THE RIDGE GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
AND FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ABATE
SOMEWHAT NEAR NOON AS WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES RISE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 07 DEC TO 0400Z 10 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON SUNDAY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
MARITIMES GIVING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES. ON MONDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST
GIVING AN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. ON
TUESDAY THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD GIVING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHERE THE GFS HAS A LOW PRESSURE GIVING SNOW
TO NOVA SCOTIA. AT THIS TIME THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SO
LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION.
END/METOC-HFX
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