130
FXCN01 CWHF 271917
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SUNDAY 27 SEP
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLOUD AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS
ON MONDAY.
- CLOUD AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 27 SEP TO 0300Z 29 SEP.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE STALLED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
WILL GIVE MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE HALIFAX
REGION TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW CENTRE BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING
STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES OVER THE APPROACHES. CLOUD
AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS ON MONDAY AS THE LOW NEARS THE
REGION. 10 TO 15 MM OF RAIN IS WHAT MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. HRDPS
PICKING A CONVECTIVE AREA GIVING LARGER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NO RAINFALL ADVISORY FOR 25MM IN 12 HRS
HAS BEEN ISSUED, BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 29 SEP TO 0300Z 02 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON TUESDAY THE BROAD WEAKENING LOW CENTRE MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES AND WINDS DROP OUT TO LIGHT HOWEVER CLOUD AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PERSISTS. THE DISSIPATING LOW EXITS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE THEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AS TROUGHING MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC WELL WEST OF THE MARITIMES.
END/METOC-HFX
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