584
FXCN01 CWHF 270810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
MONDAY 27 APR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SUNNY SKIES WITH EAST WINDS TODAY.
- CLOUDS POISED TO INVADE TUESDAY WITH MORE EAST WINDS.
- GETTING MOIST AND WINDY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 27 APR TO 0300Z 29 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS, HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. SOME PATCHY HIGHER LEVEL FROM NEW BRUNSWICK WILL
SPILL INTO NOVA SCOTIA TODAY, BUT BY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUD LAYERS. A NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WITH THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO NEWFOUNDLAND, BUT SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUD FREE WITH WINDS RETURNING TO EAST DIRECTION.
ON TUESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND A TROUGH TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. AS IT DOES
SO, A WALL OF CLOUD FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST SKIES SHOULD CLOUD
OVER IN HALIFAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
THE SHIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA,
BUT STILL, A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS LIKELY BY
MIDNIGHT IN HALIFAX. MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS
THE TROUGH NEARS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 29 APR TO 0300Z 02 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE LONG RANGE PERIOD IS NOT LOOKING GREAT. THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FOR WEDNESDAY AND STALLS. A BAND OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY WILL RUN ALONG THE TROUGH MOSTLY IMPACTING
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND MAINE. BUT A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IN
HALIFAX IS EXPECTED TO GIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUD AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
BY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH STILL REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR CAPE COD. THIS FEATURE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE EAST WIND FLOW OVER HALIFAX. THE LOW CLOUD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND BECOME LADEN WITH DRIZZLE.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW IS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH THE TROUGH
AND WIDESPREAD RAINS COVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND MAINE. HALIFAX
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN ALL DAY. BUT AN EVEN STRONGER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE
AREA.
END/METOC-HFX
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