592
FXCN01 CWHF 132102
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
FRIDAY 13 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RIDGING GIVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH GIVING FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- RIDGING GIVING FAIR WEATHER MONDAY.
- DISCRPENCY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 13 FEB TO 0400Z 15 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGING MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY GIVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A TROUGH
WILL SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTH. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 15 FEB TO 0400Z 18 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS WITH INFLUENCE OF GFS TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY, LOWER TUESDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS NOTED ABOVE... AS A DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY, EXPECT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. RIDGING MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY
GIVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY, MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE GDPS IS LOOKING TO BE AN OUTLIER. MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS KEEPS THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GDPS CURRENTLY FORECASTS. GDPS
WOULD GIVE A FLURRIES CHANGING TO SHOWERS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WHILE
MOST OTHER MODELS KEEP THE CHANCE CONFINED TO LATER IN THE DAY.
HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SHOWERS FOR NOW THOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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