892
FXCN01 CWHF 072058
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SUNDAY 07 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
- MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
- PERIODS OF SNOW OVERNIGHT TAPERING TO FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING
GIVING 2 TO 4 CM.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 07 DEC TO 0400Z 09 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUD TO
THE REGION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE OVERNIGHT IN THE HALIFAX AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DEEPENING AS IT CONTINUES ON TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES BY. AT THIS TIME 2 TO 4 CM ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HALIFAX
AREA. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MONDAY
EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 09 DEC TO 0400Z 12 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MONDAY'S LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SLUMPS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
DAY AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY. A MAINLY SUNNY
DAY IS FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN MARITIMES ON THE GDPS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND TONIGHT'S RUN NOW SHOWS POTENTIAL
GALES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY FLURRIES WITH THE TROUGH
CHANGE TO SHOWERS AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMING AIR
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS END AND WINDS EASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE NEXT LOW IS ALREADY MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS LOW EXITS EARLY THURSDAY BUT A
TRAILING SECONDARY CENTRE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY SO THE
FORECAST IS JUST CLOUD AND SHOWERS FOR THE DAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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