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FXCN01 CWHF 052024
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
THURSDAY 05 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD NEXT 36 HOURS
- COLD NIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS.
- WARM-UP WITH SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, MIST AND FOG THIS WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 05 MAR TO 0400Z 07 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS / HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS A STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE MARITIMES, THE CLOUD SHIELD THAT LIES
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING THE CLOUD DECK FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PRIOR RUNS, AND THUS, AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PARTS OF FRIDAY, BUT THE CLOUD SHIELD GET PUSHED BACK TO THE
NORTH BY A LOW CENTRE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 07 MAR TO 0400Z 10 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM THE MARITIMES AND A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. GRADUALLY THE EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MILDER CONDITIONS TO
INFILTRATE. HOWEVER, WITH THOSE MILDER CONDITIONS WILL COME
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY FOG
AND MIST.
ON SUNDAY, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE
INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE MARLOAS WILL BECOME COVERED IN
EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS, HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE HARBOUR AREA MORE PATCHY. NONETHELESS, THERE WILL
BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY MONDAY AND A BRIEF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AGAIN DURING THE DAY BUT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER,
AND THE GDPS IS LOOKING SUNNY AND MILD. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
OPTIMISTIC AND WILL BE IGNORED FOR NOW AS IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO
OVERDO ESPECIALLY THE HIGH CLOUD LAYERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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