656
FXCN01 CWHF 012107
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
SUNDAY 01 MAR
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP THIS EVENING WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND
A FLASH FREEZE ADVISORY.
- COLD. BLUSTERY DAY MONDAY.
- SNOW EVENT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 01 MAR TO 0400Z 03 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED MOSTLY HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH THE LOCAL OPS AREA BY ISSUE TIME AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
COMING TO END. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THIS
MODEL RUN AND SOME AREAS WILL HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN FREEFALL MODE AND BOTTOM OUT NEAR MINUS
12 AT THE DOCKYARD. FLASH FREEZE TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS WILL BE
MET, BUT THERE IS NOW SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE MOISTURE ON THE ROAD
SURFACES TO CAUSE THE FREEZE. WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND, WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25 RANGE OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP.
A MIX OF SUN AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THE
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WIND CHILL VALUES AND FREEZING SPRAY
CONDITIONS RECOVER SOMEWHAT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 03 MAR TO 0400Z 06 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE CURRENT MODEL RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH.
THIS IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPING FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE
EVENT. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 CM RANGE
FOR SNOWFALL, BUT THE DOCKYARD AND APPROACHES AMOUNTS HAVE DROPPED
DUE TO THE MIXING WITH RAIN NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT. BEHIND THE
EVENT, SKIES CLEAR OUT IN A WESTERLY FLOW.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS STILL PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY, AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page