231  
FXCN31 CWHX 160000  
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE  
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.10 PM ADT  
SUNDAY 15 JULY 2018.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL  
 
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION  
 
AT 9.00 PM ADT, SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3  
N AND LONGITUDE 63.3 W, ABOUT 359 NAUTICAL MILES OR 664 KM  
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT  
35 KNOTS (65 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1010 MB. BERYL IS MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H).  
 
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH  
 
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND  
ADT MB KTS KMH  
JUL 15 9.00 PM 38.3N 63.3W 1010 35 65  
JUL 16 9.00 AM 40.8N 61.1W 1010 30 56 POST-TROPICAL  
JUL 16 9.00 PM 43.2N 58.6W 1010 25 46 POST-TROPICAL  
 
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION  
 
A. ANALYSIS  
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS CONTINUED TO  
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY  
BASICALLY SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE STORM. BERYL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER, BUT APPEARS TO  
BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL  
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY, HOWEVER AN  
AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS ONLY SHOWS 25 KNOTS.  
 
B. PROGNOSTIC  
 
A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES HAS CAUSED  
BERYL TO RESUME A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD  
SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE BERYL REMAINS OVER THE  
GULF STREAM NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE  
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE  
A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  
 
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)  
 
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE  
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW  
16/00Z 25 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
16/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
17/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
 
END/MARCH/MURTHA  
 
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