810   
FXCN31 CWHX 201200  
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE   
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.32 AM NDT   
TUESDAY 20 AUGUST 2024.  
  
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO  
  
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION  
  
AT 9.30 AM NDT, TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.9  
N AND LONGITUDE 46.8 W, ABOUT 266 NAUTICAL MILES OR 493 KM  
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT  
60 KNOTS (111 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING  
EAST AT 32 KNOTS (59 KM/H).  
  
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH  
  
DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND  
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH  
AUG 20  9.30 AM  47.9N  46.8W   978   60  111  
AUG 20  3.30 PM  48.7N  42.6W   984   55  102 POST-TROPICAL  
AUG 20  9.30 PM  49.5N  37.3W   989   45   83 POST-TROPICAL  
  
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION  
  
A. ANALYSIS  
  
ERNESTO IS TAKING ON A HEAVILY SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH ALMOST ALL OF  
THE CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE. THE CYCLONE IS RACING ENE  
AND THE CENTRE HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS WHILE  
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60  
KNOTS DUE TO RAGGED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE AND THE FACT THE CYCLONE  
IS TRACKING OVER 14-17 DEG SSTS. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MAINTAINED  
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE TRACKING THROUGH THE GRAND BANKS DUE TO  
THE FACT THE AIRMASS IS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND TROPICAL IN ITS  
VICINITY. PHASE SPACE INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY ASSYMETRIC  
WARM-CORE.  
  
B. PROGNOSTIC  
  
TS ERNESTO SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS  
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS IN ITS EVOLUTION ARE THAT THE CONVECTION  
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. HOWEVER,  
THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM IS PROGGED TO BE TROPICAL IN  
NATURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 570 THICKNESS IS FORECAST TO BE  
WRAPPED AROUND THE STORM UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE STORM  
HAS MOVED WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PHASE SPACE FORECASTS INDICATE  
THAT THE STORM WILL BECOME COLD CORE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  
  
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)  
  
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE  
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW  
20/12Z  150 200 180  80    60 100  50   0     0   0   0   0  
20/18Z  140 200 180  70    50 100  50   0     0   0   0   0  
21/00Z  140 200 180  70     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0  
  
END/HATT/FOGARTY  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab CANADA Page

Main Text Page