810
FXCN31 CWHX 201200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.32 AM NDT
TUESDAY 20 AUGUST 2024.
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.30 AM NDT, TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.9
N AND LONGITUDE 46.8 W, ABOUT 266 NAUTICAL MILES OR 493 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
60 KNOTS (111 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. ERNESTO IS MOVING
EAST AT 32 KNOTS (59 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.30 AM 47.9N 46.8W 978 60 111
AUG 20 3.30 PM 48.7N 42.6W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 20 9.30 PM 49.5N 37.3W 989 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
ERNESTO IS TAKING ON A HEAVILY SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH ALMOST ALL OF
THE CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE. THE CYCLONE IS RACING ENE
AND THE CENTRE HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS DUE TO RAGGED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE AND THE FACT THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING OVER 14-17 DEG SSTS. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MAINTAINED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE TRACKING THROUGH THE GRAND BANKS DUE TO
THE FACT THE AIRMASS IS UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND TROPICAL IN ITS
VICINITY. PHASE SPACE INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY ASSYMETRIC
WARM-CORE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
TS ERNESTO SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS IN ITS EVOLUTION ARE THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. HOWEVER,
THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM IS PROGGED TO BE TROPICAL IN
NATURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 570 THICKNESS IS FORECAST TO BE
WRAPPED AROUND THE STORM UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE STORM
HAS MOVED WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PHASE SPACE FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THE STORM WILL BECOME COLD CORE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 150 200 180 80 60 100 50 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 140 200 180 70 50 100 50 0 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 140 200 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT/FOGARTY
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