014
FXCN31 CWHX 071800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.46 PM ADT
SATURDAY 07 OCTOBER 2023.
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON POST-TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
34.8 N AND LONGITUDE 64.5 W, ABOUT 547 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1013 KM SOUTH
OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS (93
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 995 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 KNOTS (28 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 07 3.00 PM 34.8N 64.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 PM 38.3N 64.7W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 41.3N 64.8W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 43.9N 65.7W 988 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 PM 46.6N 67.6W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE ORIGINAL CENTRE LOCATION OF PHILIPPE HAS DISSIPATED AND A NEW LOW
CENTRE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING
HAS FORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK UPDATE REFLECTS THIS CHANGE
AND IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE
REGION.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THIS IS THE FINAL TRACK AND TECHNICAL BULLETIN FROM THE CHC ON
PHILIPPE AND THE MERGED SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS FINAL TRACK IS
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS TRACKS SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE NEW LOW
FORMATION BUT THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST OF THE OVERALL WIND FIELD AND
WEATHER PARAMETERS IS NEGLIGIBLE. MOST MODELS STILL PREDICT A TROUGH
RUNNING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH TWO LOW
PRESSURE CENTRES ALONG IT - ONE MOVING ALONG THE TROUGH TOWARD THE
STATE OF MAINE AND THE OTHER ONE DISCUSSED IN THE ANALYSIS ABOVE (AND
MAKING UP THE OFFICIAL FINAL TRACK FORECAST) THAT WILL BRING MOST OF
THE RAIN AND WINDS TO NOVA SCOTIA.
NOTE: THE FINAL TWO NODES ON THE TRACK WHICH ARE INLAND OVER NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH INTENSITY OF 50-55 KTS DENOTE THE PEAK
WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OVER OPEN WATERS. WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE MUCH
LAST DESPITE THE NODES BEING ON LAND.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
07/18Z 250 210 90 120 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 335 230 70 110 145 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 380 240 50 90 145 105 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 330 270 60 80 185 90 10 5 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 310 270 60 105 185 15 5 5 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY
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