329
FXCN31 CWHX 251800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.16 PM NDT
MONDAY 25 AUGUST 2025.
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON TROPICAL STORM FERNAND
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.30 PM NDT, TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0
N AND LONGITUDE 57.4 W, ABOUT 396 NAUTICAL MILES OR 733 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS (93 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB. FERNAND IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS (20 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 25 3.30 PM 35.0N 57.4W 1000 50 93
AUG 25 9.30 PM 36.1N 56.5W 1001 50 93
AUG 26 3.30 AM 37.4N 55.4W 1003 50 93
AUG 26 9.30 AM 38.6N 54.4W 1005 45 83
AUG 26 3.30 PM 40.3N 53.0W 1006 40 74
AUG 26 9.30 PM 41.5N 51.5W 1007 40 74
AUG 27 3.30 AM 42.8N 49.9W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 27 9.30 AM 44.0N 48.1W 1010 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
TODAY'S ASCAT PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS JUST EAST OF
FERNAND'S CENTRE, THUS INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50
KNOTS FOR NOW. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN ITENSITY CORRESPONDS TO SOME
RECENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION, WITH LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING
FERNAND'S EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS
CONVECTION. FERNAND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FERNAND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE EAST THAN PREVIOUS, THUS
TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION. FERNAND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SST'S WHICH SHOULD STEADILY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RAPIDLY BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSISTION, WHICH
LIKELY WILL BE COMPLETETED BEFORE IT NEARS THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND
BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER FERNAND WILL BECOME OVERTAKEN AND
ABSORBED INTO AN EXISTING LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
25/18Z 70 70 60 0 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 65 70 60 0 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/06Z 75 75 20 0 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/12Z 70 75 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/18Z 65 70 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/00Z 65 85 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/06Z 60 95 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/12Z 60 95 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/BORGEL
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