231
FXCN31 CWHX 160000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.10 PM ADT
SUNDAY 15 JULY 2018.
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT, SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3
N AND LONGITUDE 63.3 W, ABOUT 359 NAUTICAL MILES OR 664 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
35 KNOTS (65 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1010 MB. BERYL IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 15 9.00 PM 38.3N 63.3W 1010 35 65
JUL 16 9.00 AM 40.8N 61.1W 1010 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 16 9.00 PM 43.2N 58.6W 1010 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
BASICALLY SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STORM. BERYL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER, BUT APPEARS TO
BE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY, HOWEVER AN
AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS ONLY SHOWS 25 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES HAS CAUSED
BERYL TO RESUME A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE BERYL REMAINS OVER THE
GULF STREAM NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
16/00Z 25 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/MARCH/MURTHA
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