397  
AGNT40 KWNM 260925  
MIMATN  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN  
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC  
425 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021  
   
FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT  
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.  
 
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE NT2 WATERS ON THU.  
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THU AND RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING OVER THE GULF STREAM AND WARMER WATERS TO  
THE EAST. STRONG STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER  
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OUTER NT2 ZONES THU MORNING. THE RAPID  
INTENSIFICATION WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES TO CONDITIONS OVER THE  
AREA. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FROM OPC AND EXAMINE  
AVOIDANCE PLANS FOR THIS STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS STORM HAS  
TRENDED TOWARD A LATER START TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER WHICH COULD RESULT IN WEAKER CONDITIONS OVER THE  
NT2 WATERS. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST  
SEVERAL DAYS BUT EVEN THAT HAS TRENDED WEAKER. STEEL FEEL THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE  
WARNING IN PLACE BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT  
MODEL RUNS. FOR WINDS GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD 00Z THU TO 12Z FRI  
WILL USE THE ECMWF WINDS.  
 
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NT2 WATERS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH  
THROUGH THE WATERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR  
THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN AND NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA  
LATER TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR THIS PERIODS WIND  
GRIDS WILL BLEND THE PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH THE 00Z ARW.  
 
WITH THE STRONG STORM ON THU A MUCH LARGER AREA OF GALE FORCE  
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NT2 WATERS AND SOUTHERN NT1 AS THE  
STORM INTENSIFY EAST OF THE WATERS THU. STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE  
STORM WILL KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY  
THE OUTER ZONES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS  
COULD INCREASE VERTICAL MIXING WELL INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NT1 AND NORTHERN NT2 ON SATURDAY  
AND KEEP GALES OVER THOSE AREAS INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THIS PERIOD  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE THE ECMWF.  
 
SEAS...FOR WAVE GRIDS WILL USE THE WAVEWATCH THROUGH 00Z THU AND  
EC WAVE FOR REST OF PERIOD. WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW  
AND GALE OR NEAR GALE WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS THU TO  
SAT SEAS WILL BUILD AND REMAIN HIGH IN THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL  
BUILD TO OVER 20 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NT2 WATERS LATE THU BEFORE  
MOVING E OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD TO 20 FT OR MORE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER NORTHERN NT2 AND SOUTHERN NT1 BY  
SAT IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW.  
   
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
 
NO SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE SURGE  
IS EXPECTED FOR THE FEW DAYS. A MINOR POSITIVE SURGE IS POSSIBLE  
N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER  
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE MORE OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. THERE  
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A POSITIVE SURGE DEVELOPING N OF THE  
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST BY THU. WITH THE LOW  
TRACKING MORE OFFSHORE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND A  
LITTLE FASTER, THE THREAT FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE SURGE  
APPEARS TO BE LESSENING.  
 
THE EXACT SURGE AND WHERE THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL DEVELOP HAS YET  
TO BE DETERMINED AS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND  
INTENSITY OF THE LOW STILL EXISTS. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST  
FORECAST AND AS ALWAYS, KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION  
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.  
 
   
WARNINGS
 
PRELIMINARY.  
   
NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
 
   
ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.    
ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.    
ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.    
ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.    
ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS
 
   
ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.    
ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.    
ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.    
ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.    
ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.    
ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.   
ANZ828
 
INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...  
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON
 
 
GALE TODAY.  
STORM THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.    
ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS
 
 
GALE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR
 
 
GALE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR
 
 
GALE TODAY.  
GALE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
HURRICANE FORCE THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N
 
 
GALE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.    
ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N
 
 
GALE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER KREKELER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
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