400  
AGPN40 KWNM 230822  
MIMPAC  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN  
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC  
122 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
   
FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT  
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.  
 
THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE  
WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WATERS. THE LATEST AVAIALBE ASACT PASSES FROM AROUND  
05Z AND 0605Z INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN  
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON  
WATERS. BUOY 46005 ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON  
OFFSHORE WATERS HAS HAD FREQUENT GUSTS IN GALE THRESHOLD THE PAST  
THREE HOURS WITH A GUST TO 47 KT NOTED AT 2310 LOCAL TIME WHICH  
WAS ABOUT THE TIME OF FROPA. WIDESPREAD GALES WERE ALSO NOTED ON  
ASCAT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FROM NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE  
ISLANDS EXTENDING NORTHWEST.  
 
THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD THROUGH THURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT, THERE  
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS BEING  
THE MAIN OUTLIER. FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WILL MAINTAIN THE  
GALE WARNING FOR EARLY TODAY FOR MARGINAL GALES FOR THE FAR  
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WATERS, WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE BY  
12Z. THE NEXT STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT MAINLY THE  
WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HAS  
BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR  
WITH THIS FRONT, AND CONFIDENCE WITH THESE GALES IS ABOVE  
AVERAGE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WATERS THURSDAY, WITH RIDGE FOLLOWING  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS INDICATE  
ANOTHER LOW PASSING JUST WEST OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS  
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER NORTHWEST. WILL DEFER TO THE  
ECMWF WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET AND GEM. THIS  
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN  
SUMMARY, WILL USE THE 00Z GFS TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS THROUGH 00Z  
FRIDAY, THEN WILL USE ECMWF. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEW IF ANY  
CHANGES TO EXISTING WARNING HEADLINES.  
   
SEAS
 
THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS  
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE ENP AND ECMWF WAM FORECAST VALUES. FOR  
THE WAVE GRIDS PLAN ON USING 50/50 BLEND OF ENP/WAM THROUGH 00Z  
FRIDAY, THEN ALL ECMWF WAM FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD.  
   
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
 
N/A.  
   
WARNINGS
 
PRELIMINARY.  
   
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
 
   
PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER
 
 
GALE TODAY.  
GALE WEDNESDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.    
PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
 
GALE WEDNESDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.   
PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
   
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
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