347
AWUS01 KWNH 262101
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270258-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 262058Z - 270258Z
SUMMARY...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING KANSAS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN INCREASE IN BACKBUILDING
OR TRAINING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS. THUS FAR, THE
PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY LIMITED
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER, THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING.
RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
AROUND 1.4 INCHES. WHILE NOT EXTREME OVERALL, THESE VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY
IS MODERATE, WITH MLCAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.
HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES UPSTREAM ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION, DRIVEN BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES EASTWARD, ITS PROGRESSIVE
NATURE SHOULD KEEP THE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW. HOWEVER,
THE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME NEW UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT, SUPPORTING BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING OF CELLS. SHOULD
THIS MESOSCALE EVOLUTION MATERIALIZE, LOCALIZED TRAINING OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD OVERWHELM LOCAL DRAINAGE CAPACITY OR
SENSITIVE BASINS, LEADING TO AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MO. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE, KEEPING THE THREAT CONFINED TO A LOCALIZED URBAN RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE, AS THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE STRUGGLED TO ACCURATELY HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
AND PLACEMENT. HOWEVER, THE 19Z HRRR AND 18Z RRFS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW AN ENHANCED QPF SIGNATURE OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MO. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AN INCREASING TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
RISK OVER THIS CORRIDOR WITH 3"+ RAINFALL POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY
FOCUSED AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING
MCS.
CHENARD
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39319460 39209427 38809342 38499314 37709302
37129340 37039441 36989570 37009623 37009656
37009692 37049731 37629699 38189612 38559589
39199554 39299504
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