167
AWUS01 KWNH 292341
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-300530-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0152
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 292340Z - 300530Z
SUMMARY...LOW END, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES AS
UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME TO REPEAT
ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED WITH INITIAL BOUT ACROSS CENTRAL LA INTO S
MS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS MCV/PRECIP SHIELD
CONTINUING TO SLIDE ESE ACROSS S MS TOWARD SW AL WITH WELL DEFINED
SQUALL/BOW OF CONVECTIVE CORES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ACROSS SW MS ENTERING LA, HAVING LAID OUT SOLID
HEAVY RAINFALL SWATH OF 1-2+" WITH ISOLATED PEAKS OF 3" TOTALS
HELPING TO REDUCE THE NATURALLY HIGHER FFG VALUES IN THE AREA.
GOES-E VISIBLE AND 10.3UM EIR SHOWS UPSTREAM NEW DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS FAR E TX INTO WEST-CENTRAL LA WITH SCATTERED WEAKER
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED CELLS OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWIXT THE
MAIN CORES NEAR THE MS CORNER. VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME
ENHANCING WINDS FROM LCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CORE OF
HIGHEST REMAINING OVERALL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE INSTABILITY ERRODES OR IS UTILIZED EASTWARD,
A RIBBON OF UNSTABLE 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN THIS
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING SWLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH,
STRONGER CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN/REDEVELOP CELLS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WITH DEEPER LAYER STEERING A
BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED REPEATING/TRAINING
ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFFECTED AREAS OF SW MS
OVER THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE THE ABUNDANCE OF TOTAL MOISTURE (OVER 2") AND STRENGTH
OF ASCENT. WHILE FLUX IS NOT EXTREME, IT WILL ALSO NOT DRIVE
QUICKER SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS FURTHER ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING. AND ADDITIONAL 2-3" OVER AREAS WITH THE
LOWERED FFG STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED INCIDENT OR TWO OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32369104 32238984 31758937 30888938 30548951
30389016 30489110 30709200 31039316 31359352
31739359 32089314
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