001
AWUS01 KWNH 242255
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-250430-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0229
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER OHIO VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 242253Z - 250430Z
SUMMARY...REPEATING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 23Z...A COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN OHIO WITH A
PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OVER THE UPPER HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND
EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN PA. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A GRADIENT OF
1.7" TO 1.5" PW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA AND
INSTABILITY WITH 1500 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW
OF 35KT IS ALLOWING HEAVY BANDS TO DEVELOP ORIENTED CLOSE TO THEIR
DIRECTION OF MOTION. HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2" ARE IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS WHICH HAS CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN
LOW FFG FROM RECENT RAINS IN THESE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SHIFTING FARTHER EAST THAN RECENT DAYS AS THE COOL AIR DAMMING
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN, BUT SLOPE/TERRAIN INCREASES, MAKING THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU PERPETUALLY FLASH FLOOD PRONE.
FURTHERMORE, AN MCV CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TN WILL LIFT UP ALONG
THE KY/WV BORDER THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH WV
OVERNIGHT.
BOTH RECENT HRRR/RRFS GUIDANCE HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND THE THREAT THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY 1-3" FROM THE
WESTERN TIP OF VA THROUGH WV AND WESTERN PA THROUGH 04Z. GIVEN THE
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTATION FOR CONTINUED TRAINING
CONVECTION, ANY 1.5"+/HR RATES WILL DRIVE RUNOFF CONCERNS.
THEREFORE, SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41738049 41517924 40337887 39027941 37018106
36628195 36568323 36708410 37978340 39018265
40088245 40768222 41218174 41498134
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