391
AWUS01 KWNH 210405
FFGMPD
KSZ000-210900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0486
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 210403Z - 210900Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS REPEAT AND TRAIN.
HOURLY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
MAXIMA OVER 4 OR 5 INCHES BY 09Z.
DISCUSSION...0345Z REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHOWED A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BOWING
MCS OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS, ADVANCING TOWARD THE ESE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WAS ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS KS, INCLUDING A
CLUSTER OF STORMS ADVANCING INTO NORTHEASTERN KS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NE. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL KS WAS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND CONTAINED 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (LOCALLY HIGHER) BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM DDC AND TOP AND 03Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA. UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT WAS ROBUST ACROSS KS, OUT AHEAD OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND
SOMEWHAT BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID AND WY.
AS THE LEADING BOWING SEGMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS LIKELY TRACKS
TOWARD THE ESE, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 50-60 KT OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM THE
MCS AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY 06Z INTO
WESTERN KS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTING
EAST WITH TIME AS WELL. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN KS
WITH ADVANCEMENT TOWARD THE ESE EXPECTED. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KS
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS WITH AREAS OF REPEATING AND TRAINING
LIKELY, LEADING TO HOURLY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW
PLACES (LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE). EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 09Z, IN THE AMOUNT OF 4 TO
5+ INCHES, WITH AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39940098 39929972 39829834 39649702 39429594
39019560 38439572 38089596 37579699 37669948
38000070 38770094 39280119 39590142 39820128
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