276
AWUS01 KWNH 082046
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1461
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 082045Z - 090200Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING >3"/HR
RAINFALL RATES MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AND IN HIGHLY URBANIZED COMMUNITIES.
DISCUSSION...20Z DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL, WHILE SOME OCCASIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
FLARED UP OVER NORTHERN FL. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
SATURATED WITH PWS REACHING 2.5" IN SOME INSTANCES. THE NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL FL, WHILE THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF FL HAVE SEEN
STORMS FLARE UP ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS. FROM TAMPA ON EAST TO
CAPE CANAVERAL AND POINTS SOUTH, RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS >1,000
J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOPING STORMS. THE 300MB JET
CIRCULATION PATTERN ALSO SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
PRESENT WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET STREAK.
LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS WILL THE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT. IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FROM ANY LIFTING MECHANISM; SEA BREEZES, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, OR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH 00Z. MOST CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE NOT LONG AFTER 00Z AND MOST
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT EDT. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
T-STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN
POCKETS OF >3"/HR RAINFALL RATES. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING IN MORE HEAVILY URBANIZED COMMUNITIES AND POOR DRAINAGE
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 28968111 28888056 28818043 28468020 28068013
27628001 27358006 27107998 26598006 25988033
25938053 26458098 26638133 26768177 26818218
27018246 27418279 28048294 28428274 28668248
28878170
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