020
AWUS01 KWNH 110558
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111156-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1244
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR INTO CENTRAL KY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 110556Z - 111156Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS BETWEEN NORTHERN AR AND CENTRAL KY THROUGH 12Z.
HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR MERGE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AR, NORTHWEST TN, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KY. THEY ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF 850 HPA CONFLUENCE,
NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF A REGION OF 1000-2000 J/KG MU CAPE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8-2.1" WERE SAMPLED BY GPS DATA.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 25-40 KTS.
WITH TIME, RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEGREE OF 850 HPA
CONFLUENCE SHOULD LESSEN AS WINDS AT THAT LEVEL DECREASE, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
WITH TIME, INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT MORE AS WELL. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATEST PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AND NEAR PORTIONS OF AR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HEAVY
RAIN CONCERNS NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER FADING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER CELLS
CAN TRAIN, MERGE, OR A RANDOM MESOCYCLONE MANAGES TO FORM. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 12Z.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37848504 37188430 36188714 35059180 34419427
35819500 37018955
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page