591
AWUS01 KWNH 092116
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100115-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1069
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
515 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 092115Z - 100115Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PERIODIC CELL MERGERS
COULD LEAD TO 2-5" OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOCALIZED URBAN FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ORLANDO IS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH ISOLATED HOURLY RATES OF 3" AND
FLASH PONDING/URBAN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
HIGH MOISTURE (PW 2.3 TO 2.4") AND INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG
SBCAPE) ALONG WITH DEEP WARMTH IS ALLOWING FOR PARTICULARLY
EFFICIENT CELLS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 20-30KT ARE SUFFICIENT
TO RETAIN DEVELOPMENT WHILE KEEPING SLOW MOTION. ADDITIONAL
CENTRAL FL LOCATIONS RECEIVING A QUICK 2-5" IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z BEFORE NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE ACTIVITY.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL RRFS.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 29088211 28898073 28298052 27468028 27248066
27188136 27388181 27998191 28458247 28908274
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