524
AWUS01 KWNH 272043
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280230-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0262
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO FAR
NORTHERN NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 272040Z - 280230Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO FAR NORTHERN NC THROUGH ~02Z. RAIN RATES OF
1-2 IN/HR AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
POSSIBLE OVERLAP WITH LOCATIONS THAT HAVE PICKED UP HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2030Z SHOWED A
SOUTHWARD SINKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL VA AND A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHWESTERN NC. THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN OUTFLOW WAS ESTIMATED TO CONTAIN 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND PWS NEAR 2 INCHES PER 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA. AS THE
NORTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CELLS CONTAINING A MEAN WEST TO
EAST MOTION AT 20-30 KT. DUE TO THE SIMILARLY ORIENTED LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION, SOME BRIEF TRAINING
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, WITH
CLEARING OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER TIME.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VA HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 6+ INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND HAVE LIMITED CAPACITY FOR
ADDITIONAL INFILTRATION OF WATER. THEREFORE, HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 3 INCHES
COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 02Z TO 03Z.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 37907655 37537567 37037545 36507571 36417673
36437775 36437906 36528003 37148017 37757815
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