237
AWUS01 KWNH 241606
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-242015-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0839
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...CENTRAL EASTERN AR...ADJ. SOUTHWEST
TN, NORTHWEST AL...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241605Z - 242015Z
SUMMARY...NARROW BAND OF SLOW MOVING/REPEATING EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL STORMS CAPABLE OF 2-2.5"/HR AND FOCUSED LOCALIZED 2-4"
TOTALS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE AND RAP ANALYSIS DENOTE AN ELONGATED
WNW TO ESE SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS ACROSS WESTERN KY INTO
MIDDLE TN HELPING TO SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER S TN, HELPING
TO DROP THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS N MS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR PER 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. HOWEVER, 850-700MB VWP
AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WAA ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND SHARPENING
850MB FGEN FROM NORTH-CENTRAL AR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS N MS. AS
SUCH, A TIGHTENING OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS SMALL BIFURCATION OF THE
SURFACE TO JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTAL SLOPE IS HELPING TO
INCREASE CONFLUENCE AND POOLING OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH TOTAL
PWATS OVER 2.25" AND NEAR 2.5" THROUGH THIS ZONE. MLCAPE ANALYSIS
ALSO NOTES THE SHARPENED OF THE GRADIENT AND WITH WEAK BUT
ORTHOGONAL WINDS PROVIDING SOLID CONVERGENCE, THE CAPPING EASTWARD
HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED FOR A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION TO START
TO DEVELOP AND EXPANDED ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
EASTERN AR INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS. FLUX IS WEAK GIVEN THE 10KTS OF
INFLOW, BUT WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY LOADED IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM OF THE DEVELOPING CBS AND BELOW THE
FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS; EFFICIENT HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN
SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE 2-2.5"/HR. ANY LOCALIZED BROADENING OF THE
UPDRAFTS MAY EVEN TRIP A VERY ISOLATED INCREASE TO 3"/HR LOCALLY.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, DEEP LAYER STEERING AT OR JUST ABOVE THE
CLOUD BASE FRONT, RAPIDLY SHIFTS MORE WEST TO EAST BUT ALSO HAS A
SOLID CONFLUENT COMPONENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS N MS INTO NW AL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING AND TRAINING TO THE EAST AND MAY HELP TO
RESULT IN LOCALIZED 3-4" TOTALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES AND 850MB WINDS VEER, UPSTREAM
REDEVELOPMENT WILL REDUCE AND PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NE MS AND PERHAPS NW AL TOWARD 19Z.
HOURLY FFG VALUES ARE HIGH WITH 2.5-3"/HR AND 3HR VALUES IN THE
3-4" RANGE, SO EVEN WITH TRAINING FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
ONLY LIMITED TO INTERSECTING URBAN CENTERS, ESPECIALLY MEMPHIS IF
THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE THE SLIGHT NORTHEAST PROPAGATION SEEN
RECENTLY, THOUGH OXFORD AND TUPELO, MS STILL REMAIN IN SOME
POTENTIAL RISK OF INTERSECTION/REPEATING AS WELL.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...LZK...MEG...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35679182 35399016 35088849 34608702 34118679
33768723 33818859 34009010 34469144 35109215
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