398
AWUS01 KWNH 112028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120226-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0092
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 112026Z - 120226Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4"
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A REGION OF 850 HPA CONFLUENCE IS SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN TX. CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND IS SENDING
OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ~1.25". AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO, ENHANCING DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING THE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR TO 25-45 KTS. ML CAPE IS 500-2000 J/KG, AND RISING.
WITH TIME, THE AREA OF 850 HPA CONFLUENCE EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX BIG BEND, TRANS PECOS, AND NORTHWEST TX. THE
GFS-BASED GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX IMPLIES THAT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.
THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS
FROM BECOMING PARTICULARLY EXTREME. THE AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS
SUGGEST THAT HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO
4" WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. SINCE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS MODEST, WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE. URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TOP
SOIL IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WOULD BE MOST
SENSITIVE TO THESE RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34550074 34309932 33279892 32129929 31020003
29800112 29510153 29590244 29080278 28910311
29070379 29560431 31090307 33270244
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