500
AWUS01 KWNH 240415
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240915-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0512
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS (PORTIONS OF
NE, KS, OK AND NM)
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 240410Z - 240915Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ORGANIZATION INTO A CLUSTER
OR TWO OVER EASTERN CO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE (LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE).
DISCUSSION...AREA RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0345Z OVER EASTERN CO
SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE IN A NORTH
SOUTH FASHION, ROUGHLY 30-60 MILES EAST OF I-25, EXCEPT IN
SOUTHERN CO FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD, WHERE CELLS WERE CLOSER TO
I-25. 850-700 MB WINDS WERE FROM THE S TO SE AT 20-30 KT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO, OVERRUNNING A STATIONARY FRONT
WHILE 850 MB WINDS WERE FROM THE E TO ESE (UPSLOPE) AT ~30 KT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS SEEN IN VAD WIND DATA FROM KFTG AND KPUX.
WHILE CIN VARIED ACROSS THE REGION, MLCAPE WAS 1500 J/KG TO NEAR
4000 J/KG (HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS),
WITH ANOMALOUS PWS CONTAINING STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES WERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CELLS WITH SUPERCELLS ALREADY OBSERVED. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH WHICH SPECIFIC AREAS WITHIN EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHER RAIN
RATES/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT CYCLES OF
THE HRRR AND WOFS SUGGEST ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. RECENT
WOFS CYCLES SUPPORT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO (UP TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH 08Z/09Z).
MEAN MOVEMENT OF CELLS/CLUSTERS SHOULD BE OFF TOWARD THE E OR SE.
SOME SHORT TERM, UPSTREAM CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY ORGANIZATION OF CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH REPEATING AND TRAINING,
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2+ INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES
THROUGH 09Z. PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO
RUNOFF THAN OTHERS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
RISK NATURALLY GREATER ACROSS THESE MORE SENSITIVE REGIONS
CONTAINING HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 41210218 40620049 39250023 37700083 36680146
36710350 37270435 38840470 40030451 40930354
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