119
AWUS01 KWNH 180157
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180745-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1100
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO...FAR NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHWEST
KS...OK PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 180155Z - 180745Z
SUMMARY...WAA BAND WITH SOME SHORT-TERM TRAINING ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE TO GIVEN WAY TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OUT OF SE
CO/NE NM. SCATTERED REPEATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAY
PRESENT HOURLY RATES/TOTALS TO 1.5" AND LOCALIZED 2-3 3-6 HOUR
TOTALS DOWNSTREAM. ISOLATED INCIDENT OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...GEOS-E WV SUITE SHOWS A BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THOUGH THE INNER CORE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
FEATURES ARE FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED BUT SHOWING A GENERALLY FLAT
ELONGATED ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL CO TOWARD THE SAND HILLS OF
NEBRASKA. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING EASTWARD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX INTO A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT REGION
ACROSS SW KS ATTM. AS SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE, THIS WILL EXPAND
AND OVERALL DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, IN THE SHORT-TERM TERM, SCATTERED MORE SEVERE-TYPE
CONVECTION WITH SOLID HAIL GENERATION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE CO,
THOUGH ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS SOME RANDOM COLLISION/MERGERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE CONCERNING IS VWP AND RAP
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS RESPONDING TO THE
OVERALL HEIGHT-FALLS/EJECTION OF THE WAVE. A WEAK THERMAL
BOUNDARY FROM NNW TO SSE IS ACTING AS THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT FACT
ACROSS FAR NE NM INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. HERE, WAA IS
SOLID AND MUCAPES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CIRA LPW ALSO NOTES BACKED UP MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE, COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED 850-700 TO
.5" NEAR THIS ASCENT PLANE, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX
INTO THE CURRENTLY SEVERE/HAIL PRODUCING CELLS. GIVEN TOTAL
MOISTURE TO 1.25" AND INCREASING SPEED TO 35KTS, CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT 1.5"+/HR RATES.
DEEP LAYER FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET IS SUPPORT SOME
WEAK SOUTH-EASTERLY MOTIONS FOR SOME SCATTERED POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/REPEATING ELEMENTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 2-3"
TOTALS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH TIME, THE STRENGTH AND VEERING OF THE LLJ WILL
EXPAND ASCENT ACROSS SE CO INTO SW KS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EXPANDING DIVERGENCE FIELD TOWARD 06-07Z. FORWARD PROPAGATION IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE, BUT REPEAT TRACKS AND EXPANDING
CLUSTERS MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALIZED 2-3" TOTALS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDLE OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38580228 38510076 38069976 36809946 35410016
35220225 35830347 37200421 38270358
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