272
AWUS01 KWNH 020514
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020930-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1172
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 020512Z - 020930Z
SUMMARY...PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOCUSED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE
TRACK OF T.D. EDOUARD ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS REGION OF TX. IN
ADDITION, SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR NOCTURNAL BANDING TO SETUP
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH COULD ALSO PRODUCE HIGH
RAIN RATES AND FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AT 05Z, T.D. EDOUARD WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON, TX, MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7
KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO WITH
OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS, WHILE BANDING ATTEMPTED TO
ORGANIZE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT PRESENTATION WITH ORGANIZED SPIRAL
BANDING EXTENDING 10-20 MILES OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER IN ALL
DIRECTIONS. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
HEAVIEST RAIN HAD FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER, AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS TO OCCUR JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF THE STORM TRACK. THIS WOULD INCLUDE POLK AND TRINITY
COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 10Z COULD AMOUNT TO 3
TO 6 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE).
SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINED HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 2.2 TO 2.6 INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG NOSING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHEASTERN TX, JUST WEST OF THE
SABINE RIVER (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA). THE GRADIENT OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD GALVESTON BAY. A FEW OF
THE 00Z HIRES MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BANDING
(ALREADY PRESENT IN SOUTHEASTERN TX OVER CHAMBERS, JEFFERSON,
ORANGE AND NEWTON COUNTIES), TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
EXHIBIT SLOW MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT 15-MINUTE RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS NEAR
THE DEPRESSION'S TRACK).
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31649459 31239395 30719369 30179367 29719404
29569453 29649507 29899548 30379578 30889588
31349571 31629528
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