814
AWUS01 KWNH 111337
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111636-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0091
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 111336Z - 111636Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING 1-2"/HR RAINFALL
RATES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS, PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO TRACK A WEST
TO EAST AXIS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SLOW MOVING MCS
NEAR THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER. RECENT MRMS ESTIMATED HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES HAVE ECLIPSED 2"/HR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST CELLS
AT TIMES. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SLOW NET MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX
(CORFIDI VECTORS ARE AROUND 10-15 KTS), 4-5" OF RAINFALL LED TO AT
LEAST THREE REPORTS OF FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS IN NORTHERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING.
AS HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER, THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TIED TO A 35-40KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS BISECTING A WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD POOL
AND SYNOPTIC FRONT AMID LOCALLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MCV EMBEDDED IN THE
COMPLEX WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ASCENT IN THE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THE RAP SUGGESTS 30-35 KTS OF 850 MB INFLOW
BISECTING THE WEST-EAST BOUNDARY COULD MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS, EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE (~500 J/KG
MUCAPE). MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER, THE ARW SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND SUGGESTS THE
TRAINING AXIS COULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH, THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
ASHERMAN
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...
LAT...LON 40259601 40219520 40019439 39599433 39489490
39379618 39389653 39449696 39759714 39979690
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