526  
AWUS01 KWNH 090548  
FFGMPD  
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-091015-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0626  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
148 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO SOUTHERN DELMARVA  
PENINSULA  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 090547Z - 091015Z  
 
SUMMARY...A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN VA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN  
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH 09-10Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR  
(LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE) AND ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE  
EXPECTED.  
 
DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 0520Z SHOWED A REGION OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WEST-EAST FROM CENTRAL VA TO JUST WEST OF  
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MRMS HAS BEEN MATCHING LOCAL GAUGE REPORTS  
FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS IN SHOWING PEAK HOURLY  
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS  
NOTED TO BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RICHMOND/PETERSBURG METRO BUT  
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE WEST WERE LIKELY BEING AIDED VIA A  
SOUTHWESTERLY AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING DIRECTLY INTO THE  
REGION AT 20 KT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BENEATH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW  
ALOFT. MLCAPE TRENDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 3  
HOURS WITH 05Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG  
MLCAPE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF VA. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE  
RATES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER (6.5-7.5 C/KM) WERE CONTRIBUTING TO  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EAST OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WITH SOME SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION DUE TO COLD  
POOLS AND PROPAGATION INTO THE INFLOW. WHILE WEAKENING OF  
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVERALL BY 09/10Z, FLASH FLOOD  
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FROM 1-2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES  
(LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-4  
INCHES OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO SURVIVE,  
THEY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS TO THE  
HAMPTON/NORFOLK/VIRGINIA BEACH REGIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VA,  
ALTHOUGH RECENT AVAILABLE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT STORMS  
MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY THAT FAR EAST.  
 
OTTO  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...  
 
ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...  
 
LAT...LON 38137536 37817510 37257534 36547584 36507701  
36637865 37227873 37637750  
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