937
AWUS01 KWNH 162003
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-170001-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0114
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 162001Z - 170001Z
SUMMARY...ISOLATED, SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS (THROUGH 00Z/7P
CENTRAL).
DISCUSSION...A LOCALIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG INSOLATION/SURFACE DESTABILIZATION BENEATH A
VERY COLD MID/UPPER WAVE (-18C AT 500 HPA). THE STORMS ARE ALSO
IN A VERY LOCALIZED AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW DROPS OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH RIGHT-MOVING STORM MOTIONS FALLING TO AROUND
5-10 KNOTS PER POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS EXPLAINS RECENT
BEHAVIOR OF THE STORM CLUSTER VERY NEAR OSAGE BEACH, MO, WHERE
MRMS ESTIMATES OF 1+ INCH/HR IN THAT AREA WERE ALREADY EXCEEDING
LOCAL FFG.
GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS IN
QUESTION. PERSISTENCE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY - OR PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER(S) OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE 1 INCH/HR RAIN
RATES AT TIMES. AGAIN, THESE RATES COULD EXCEED FFG, AND GIVEN
SENSITIVE LOCAL TERRAIN IN THE REGION, ANOTHER INSTANCE OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THIS RISK WILL
LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESSEN SOME AFTER SUNSET.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 38919228 38839074 38279022 37459022 37119109
37199248 37689329 38099339 38809317
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