775
AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120920-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0094
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 120419Z - 120920Z
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK THROUGH 09Z. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER)
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN 2-3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...04Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WAS GETTING
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS IT MOVED EASTWARD
ACROSS I-20. INSTABILITY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE ESTIMATED VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA AND THE 00Z FWD
SOUNDING, ALONG WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF WEAKER VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER WESTERN TX, AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ASCENT INTO THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
CENTRAL TX INTO OK TONIGHT.
RAP FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWED FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINING OVER CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CURRENT AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY ADVANCING NNE AND E AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING TO THE WEST,
WITH TRANSIENT AXES OF TRAINING HELPING TO SUPPORT 1 TO 2+ IN/HR
RAIN RATES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
HIGHER RATES WILL BE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE,
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/TRAINING TO
REFOCUS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE AS IT SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM DUE TO THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION OF WESTERN TX AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35979748 35879671 35639634 35089609 34309618
33629639 32879660 31959737 31309902 31389998
32180015 33440001 34719940 35699834
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