599
AWUS01 KWNH 110955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111330-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0090
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
554 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IA/NORTHWESTERN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 110953Z - 111330Z
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS FROM NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IA/NORTHWESTERN MO. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FROM
REPEATING/TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 TO
2+ IN/HR RAIN RATES.
DISCUSSION...A NW TO SE AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR IMAGERY AT 0930Z FROM THE KS/NE BORDER NEAR SUPERIOR, NE TO
NEAR WESTMORELAND IN NORTHEASTERN KS. THE SLOW MOVING AXIS HAS
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH MRMS-DERIVED HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2+
INCHES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST. 850 MB WINDS OF 3O TO 40+
KT CONTINUED TO OVERRUN A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM
CENTRAL OK WITH AN AXIS OF ELEVATED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO FOCUS
THE CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT LOCALLY
AIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS
ALSO OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY APPROACHING CENTRAL KS WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO SUPPORT LIFT.
850 MB WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AND RECENT RAP
FORECASTS SHOWED GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 15Z FOLLOWING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER, ~25 TO 35 KT OF SSW 850 MB WINDS OVER
EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHING CENTRAL KS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ASCENT FROM NORTHEASTERN KS
INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS
CURRENT VALUES OF MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS THE INSTABILITY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MO RIVER.
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS
WITH 1 TO 2+ IN/HR RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM NORTHEASTERN
KS/SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO NORTHWESTERN MO AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN
IA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WHERE OVERLAP OCCURS
WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN KS DUE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...
LAT...LON 41019522 40889393 40389350 39719368 39169441
39049551 39189654 39689754 40029835 40609801
40819704
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