254
AWUS01 KWNH 120059
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0388
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA & THE NJ/NY BORDER
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 120053Z - 120333Z
SUMMARY...A MESOSCALE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN LEADING TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS OF LATE IN NORTHEAST PA. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 3" APPEAR POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE
OR TRAIN.
DISCUSSION...AN INCOMING CONVECTIVE LINE HAS LED TO A MESOSCALE
WAVE NEAR SCRANTON PA, WHICH HAS LED TO SOME CELL TRAINING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE NEAR THE NORTHERN
PA/NJ BORDER OVER THE TOP OF AN INSTABILITY POOL WITH 2000-3000
J/KG OF ML CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 30 KTS. THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEAR THE NJ/NY BORDER ALIGNS WITH A LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NY/NJ BORDER
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND, PARTIALLY CAUSED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PASSED THROUGH LONG
ISLAND A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT ADVERTISE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO ESCAPE NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DYING QUITE YET, SO THERE REMAINS
A THREAT FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
UNSPECIFIED TIME. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 3" REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WANE TONIGHT. SINCE
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON, USED
A NEARLY THREE HOUR TIME HORIZON.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498
41307577
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