987
AWUS01 KWNH 280138
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0144
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
937 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...FAR
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 280140Z - 280700Z
SUMMARY...SLOW RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE
FLUX AND CAPABILITY OF 2-2.5"/HR RATES POSE HIGHLY LOCALIZED 2-4"
STREAKS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND CIRA SFC-850 LPW SHOW A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE REACHING THE RED
RIVER THOUGH EASTERN TX WITH TDS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH A FEW
UPPER 70S VALUES DOTTED ACROSS. A DRY LINE BULGE EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK WITH A SURFACE WAVE NEAR KSRE AND THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK. WITH
LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING/MIXING, THE DRY LINE IS ALREADY STARTING
TO RETROGRADE AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN NE
TX PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE NECESSARY TO BREAK THE STRONGER CAP
NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
A FEW CELLS FURTHER NORTH WITH REDUCED CONVERGENCE, WEAKENED, BUT
NOW THE THE UPDRAFTS ARE ESTABLISHED WITH AMPLE ROTATION, THE
MOISTURE FLUX IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THESE CELLS.
MLCAPES OF 4500 J/KG WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS STRONG TO MAINTAIN
INCREASED ISALLOBARIC INFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE STRONGER UPDRAFT ROTATION, CELL MOTIONS
ARE ALSO GOING TO DECREASE SUPPORTING INCREASED RESIDENCY OF THE
CELLS. CURRENTLY, HAIL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN DOMINANT, BUT KDP
SIGNALS HAVE SHOWN HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS STARTING TO BE
MORE FOCUSED AS WELL FOR THE PAIR OF RIGHT MOVER IN ROCKWALL AND
HOPKINS COUNTY.
GIVEN THE STRONG INFLOW OF THOSE 70S TDS AND OVERALL TPW TO 1.75",
RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPDRAFTS
BROADEN THE OVERALL PROFILE MOISTENS. AS SUCH, LOCALIZED 3-4"
TOTALS ARE CONSIDERED POSSIBLE. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE NATURALLY
HIGH AND SOILS ARE DRY, THAT MEANS THEY ARE FAIRLY HARD AS WELL,
REDUCING UPTAKE OF THE AMOUNT OF WATER AT THAT RATE, SUGGESTING
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING/RAPID INUNDATION PONDING IN URBAN AREAS
IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 33759449 33559344 32999304 32419346 32289498
32299563 32409658 32879705 33439661 33709572
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