607
AWUS01 KWNH 060100
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060658-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0158
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 060058Z - 060658Z
SUMMARY...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
MIGRATING COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF ENHANCED RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 2-4" WILL BE PLAUSIBLE IN
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALIGNED WITHIN THE
MEMPHIS METRO INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE COMPOSITE INDICATES THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR THE
OK/AR BORDER. INCREASED 85H WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE
IS INDICATIVE OF A BUDDING LLJ THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE REGIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR/RAP BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
SIGNAL IS QUITE ROBUST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AR, EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TN WITH A GENERAL ALIGNMENT RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PREVALENT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WELL-DOCUMENTED AS DEW POINTS
NESTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER-60S WITH AREAL PWAT ANOMALIES
SETTLED BETWEEN 1-2 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE
GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALY OUTPUTS. MODEST MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500
J/KG WILL BE POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENTICE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 1-2"/HR IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CRESCENDO OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP FOCUSED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
TN. THIS WOULD PUT THE MEMPHIS METRO CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES IN THE BEST CONVERGENT PATTERN CAPABLE OF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH WAS EXPRESSED WITHIN THE LATEST HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATING THE HIGHER PROBS FOR >2"
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TN. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY LEADING TO SOME PRIMING
OF THE TOP SOIL LAYER WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A BIT OF AN EASIER TIME
TO INITIATE RUN OFF CAPABILITIES. THE URBAN CENTER OF MEMPHIS ALSO
DRAWS FOR AN ENHANCED RUN OFF THREAT, SO THE COUPLING OF THE
PRIMING AND IMPERVIOUS SURFACES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A GREATER FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE METRO, AT LEAST FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A WAVE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO
EXTEND BACK OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR IN AR. THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOOTPRINT
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD PROMINENCE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SIGNAL WILL
LIKELY CARRY BEYOND THE 6HR PERIOD WITH IMPACTS LIKELY TO OCCUR
EVEN BEYOND 06Z FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS AR/TN/MS.
KLEEBAUER
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37038915 37008852 36948798 36938750 36708711
36388709 36078757 35738819 35448852 35268871
35068903 34848960 34659053 34579165 34639272
34929319 35459315 35849270 36269156 36429094
36619044 36768998 36878949
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