454  
AWUS01 KWNH 292327  
FFGMPD  
NCZ000-300225-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0333  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
725 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NC  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  
 
VALID 292325Z - 300225Z  
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE-EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING ARE LIKELY AND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE RALEIGH-DURHAM  
METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS.  
 
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES/HOUR IMPACTING CENTRAL  
NC AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  
COASTAL PLAIN INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLED  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
MUCAPE VALUES ARE STILL LOCALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG, AND  
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH  
EACH OTHER THAT ARE RESULTING IN POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE AIRMASS IS  
MOIST WITH PWS OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES, AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE  
REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL FAVOR LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL  
RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
THERE IS ALSO PROXIMITY OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC ALONG  
WITH SOME MODEST RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS  
THAT ARE HELPING TO FURTHER FACILITATE THE SUSTENANCE OF  
CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM. GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL  
RATES AND SOME CELL-MERGER ACTIVITY, EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER  
STABILIZATION OCCURS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
AREAS OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING ARE LOCALLY ALREADY OCCURRING AND  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE-EVENING HOURS GIVENJ THE  
HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL INCLUDE A NEAR-TERM THREAT TO THE  
RALEIGH-DURHAM METROPOLITAN AREA WHICH CURRENTLY HAS HEAVY SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SITUATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE  
CITY.  
 
ORRISON  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RAH...RNK...  
 
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...  
 
LAT...LON 36507820 36287765 35847759 35507790 35327857  
35338008 35838044 36347951  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page