560
AWUS01 KWNH 141736
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142335-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0019
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 141735Z - 142335Z
SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS MAY
FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-E IR/WV SUITE SHOWS A STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TX.
STRONG FORCING ALOFT WITH DPVA AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IS FACILITATING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX AND INTO THE RED RED
VALLEY.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAS BEEN SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE DFW
METROPOLITAN AREA, BUT WITH A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OFF
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH
THE MODESTLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH PWS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, SOME UPTICK IN THESE
PARAMETERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET REACHES 40 TO 50+ KTS AND PWS INCREASE LOCALLY TO
NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THIS SHOULD HELP FAVOR RAINFALL RATES WELL INTO
THE 1 TO 2 INCH/HOUR RANGE WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
CELLS WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY MUCH AS 30 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR.
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST THE EARLY
STAGES OF A QLCS EVOLUTION LIKELY GOING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE THERE WILL
BE SOME LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z HREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED 3 TO 4+ INCH TOTALS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE ARKLATEX.
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOTABLY DRY, BUT GIVEN THE
INCREASING RATES AND CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS, SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34549428 34299311 33509314 32719423 32119559
32029649 32239723 32699745 33319705 34129585
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