259
AWUS01 KWNH 060401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060929-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0622
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 060359Z - 060929Z
SUMMARY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES PLOWING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN
AREAS WITH MINIMAL TOPSOIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RACED THROUGH CENTRAL TX,
WITH THE 00Z REFS SHOWING A REALISTIC DEPICTION OF ITS EVOLUTION
PRESENTLY. MU CAPE IS 1000-2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE 1.5-1.75" NEAR AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS ~20 KTS.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO REDEVELOP CLOSER
TO/JUMP FORWARD TOWARDS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS OF LATE, THOUGH
NEW ACTIVITY ISN'T MOVING IN A HURRY. SINCE THE 00Z REFS IS DOING
A REALISTIC JOB THUS FAR, USED IT AS A GUIDE BUT ASSUMED THAT
GROUP CONVECTIVE MOTION/PROPAGATION COULD STILL BE TOO SLOW.
HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS ARE
QUASI-STATIONARY, MERGE, OR MANAGE TO TRAIN. THIS WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IN AREAS WITH MINIMAL TOPSOIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31930311 31890042 31489840 29399904 28760055
29590145 29500288 30360345
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