420
AWUS01 KWNH 150036
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150535-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1056
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
836 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 150035Z - 150535Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO INTO PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH 05Z/11P MOUNTAIN.
DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE EVOLVED
INTO A SERIES OF SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS AND CELLS PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL 1-2.5 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
SHOW A COUPLE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS BETWEEN AKRON/LIMON
AND NEAR OSHKOSH, WITH UPSTREAM CELLS FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG
REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED
IN VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS), WITH
1-1.5 INCH PW VALUES (HIGHEST WITH EASTWARD EXTENT) SUPPORTING
ONGOING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN RATES ARE EXCEEDING FFG
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES (AROUND 1 INCH/HR IN MANY AREAS), AND A FEW
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR DENVER, CHEYENNE, AND NORTH OF
PUEBLO.
THE DOWNSTREAM, AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
CONTAINS A POOL OF UNDISTURBED INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE)
AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA, GRADUALLY REACHING THE CO/KS/NE BORDER REGION
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS IT DOES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES
WILL REMAIN LIKELY GIVEN CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT AND PROPAGATION
TOWARD EVEN MORE MOISTURE (1.7+ INCH PW). FFG THRESHOLDS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT (AROUND 1.5 INCH OR MORE),
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. STORMS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RESPOND TO
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION, AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z/11P MOUNTAIN TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSCALE GROWTH HAS
OCCURRED.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 42160208 41240114 40150099 38710120 38060175
38440405 39980479 41060395 41940386
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