705
AWUS01 KWNH 300034
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300633-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1402
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
834 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST ARIZONA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 300033Z - 300633Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNDER AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0830Z...LATEST GOES IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
OCCLUDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AN ARC ON
THE EAST/NORTH/WEST SIDES OF THE LOW PER REGIONAL NEXRAD AND NLDN
DATA. MAX HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1" CONTINUES TO BE ESTIMATED FROM
KESX AND KFSX. PW OF 1" BELOW THE MOGOLLON RIM AND 0.8" ABOVE IN
REMAIN WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
CYCLONIC MOTION TO THE CELLS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AID LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 1.5" IN AREAS OF REPEATING ACTIVITY.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER STEEP
TERRAIN, BURN SCARS, OR SENSITIVE DRY WASHES THIS EVENING. THE LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT, SO A SUBSEQUENT
DISCUSSION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EASTERN ARIZONA.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36681293 36651138 36071072 34771091 33971162
33641227 33771346 34051485 35211489 35981437
36481362
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