114
AWUS01 KWNH 270712
FFGMPD
FLZ000-271300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1219
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERM FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 270715Z - 271300Z
SUMMARY... RATES OF 2"/HR AND TOTALS OF 2-4" TO CONTINUE RISK OF
RAPID INUNDATION FLOODING ALONG THE URBAN LOCALES OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9 SWIR AND RADAR FROM EVX SHOWS A PAIR OF
NARROW N-S ORIENTED BANDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. CONFLUENT FLOW HAS NARROWED IN
DIRECTION BUT SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 20-30KTS THROUGH 700MB.
SUFFICIENT VEERING THROUGH DEPTH SHOWS WAA PROFILE STILL
SUPPORTING 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ABOUT 200 M2/S2 OF
HELICITY TO MAINTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THESE ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THE LOCALIZED FLOW PROVIDING FURTHER
ESCALATION OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 10-15KFT OF
STORM. GIVEN BULK OF 1.75-2" TOTAL PWATS (~1-1.25" PER CIRA LPW)
WILL MAINTAIN SOLID RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH RATES OF 2"/HR LIKELY
TO CONTINUE WITH THESE BACK TO BACK LINES OF UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER
STEERING AND BUNKERS RIGHT MOVER PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-15KTS BUT ALSO A SLIGHT RIGHT
DEFLECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND COASTLINE, PROBABLY WITH
SOME FRICTIONAL SPEED CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAND AS WELL.
ALOFT, THE 80KT WSW TO ENE SPEED MAX REMAINS SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM AND
TO THE SOUTHWEST, LEAVING THE DEVELOPING CELLS WITHIN CONTINUED
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT ASCENT REGION. THE
SHEAR IS STRONG, BUT MAINLY ABOVE 500MB AND IS NOT GENERALLY
DISRUPTING THE DEPTH OF THE RAINFALL GENERATION REGION BELOW
700MB. SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE LARGER SCALE
DIVERGENCE/OBLIQUE HEIGHT-FALLS ACROSS N MS/AL, DURATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE 1-2+ HOURS GIVEN BACK TO BACK UPDRAFTS. AS A
RESULT A STREAK OF 2-4" TOTALS IS PLAUSIBLE; HOWEVER, GREATEST
TOTALS MAY START TO FALL JUST OFFSHORE OR DIRECTLY ALONG THE
BEACHES. SO WHILE THE AREA IS SANDY AND HAS HIGH FFG VALUES, THE
AREA STILL REMAINS FAIRLY URBAN AND MORE PRONE TO RAPID INUNDATION
FLOODING. AS SUCH, THIS STYLE OF FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 30808683 30728600 30428520 30098505 29838513
29668540 30128590 30318660 30348719 30638722
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