969
AWUS01 KWNH 150401
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-150759-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 150359Z - 150759Z
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS (THROUGH 08Z/4A
EASTERN).
DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXISTS GENERALLY FROM NEAR RUTLAND, VT THROUGH ALBANY AND SOUTH OF
ONEONTA, NY. THIS CONVECTION WAS EMBEDDED IN STRONG STEERING FLOW
ALOFT (OVER 40 KNOTS) ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH ORIENTATION HAS
FAVORED TRAINING AND SPOTS OF 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES AT TIMES. THE
CELLS ARE BEING FORCED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVES UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND CONFLUENT, BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS NOTED PER
MESOANALYSES, THOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (1.6+ PW) AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WERE OVERCOMING THE WEAK BUOYANCY (~500 J/KG MLCAPE) TO
SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION.
PERSISTENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN EVEN WEAKER BUOYANCY NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND. FORCING (PARTICULARLY MID-LEVEL ASCENT WITH STOUT
UPSTREAM WAVES OVER NY MOVING TOWARD THE REGION) SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
PERSISTENT, DEEPER CONVECTION THAT CAN PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS. FFGS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN EASTERN NY (OVER 2 INCH/HR),
BUT LOWER SOME ACROSS VERMONT AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE (AROUND 1
INCH/HR IN SPOTS) SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH 08Z/4A EASTERN.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...
ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 45767044 44917024 43627088 42757214 42467306
43077398 44107322 45527118
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page