948
AWUS01 KWNH 030107
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-030700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0303
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST & CENTRAL SD...FAR NORTHEAST WY...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 030110Z - 030700Z
SUMMARY...FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF INTENSE
HEAVY RAINFALL, LIKELY TO CROSS ALREADY SATURATED/FLOODING GROUND
CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E SHOWS SMALL/COMPACT SHORTWAVE IN NE WY ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER S SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUING TO PROVIDE STRONG DPVA
ASCENT ALONG/DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD HELPING TO MAINTAIN A
FEW SMALL CLUSTERS/DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES, WHILE ALSO
MAINTAIN ISALLOBARIC BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE NEAR KW43 WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. AN EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE BULGE IS STARTING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS WITH
TDS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND SO SURFACE FGEN FORCING HAS BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN/FOCUS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS SW SD
WHILE ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FILLING IN ALONG THE
WEDGE FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTH OF THE HILLS BUT SOUTHEAST OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS SUCH, STREAMLINES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE MOISTURE FLUX AND BASE LOADING OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
1.5"/HR RATES.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT ESPECIALLY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE TO THE STRENGTHENING
JET OVER W ND EXPANDS TOWARD 90-100KTS BY 04-06Z LATER TONIGHT.
AS SUCH, UPSCALE MAINTENANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO A
LARGER CLUSTER WITH FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO WSW TO SW STEERING
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM TRAINING AS WELL AS
REPEATING FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT IS STARTING TO
BOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MESOSCALE FEATURES SUGGEST
SOME WAA, STORM/MESO-SCALE INTERACTION BETWEEN CLUSTERS THAT
SHOULD ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL SDAK TONIGHT. HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME COLD POOLS AND MITIGATE
PROLONGED RESIDENCY. STILL, SPOTS OF 2-4" ARE PROBABLE AND GIVEN
ALREADY LOWERED FFG (3HR VALUES OF 1-2.5"; WEST TO EAST), IT IS
LIKELY TO EXCEED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD
CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...UNR...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...
LAT...LON 45520161 45369920 45009819 43869808 43129887
43030022 43020158 43060302 43230349 43780356
44270373 44560470 44960402 45370320
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