225
AWUS01 KWNH 021902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1429
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 021900Z - 030100Z
SUMMARY...LOCALLY SLOW-MOVING AND VERY EFFICIENT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL TX
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL TEND TO CONTINUE GIVEN LOCALLY MOIST/WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR
DATA SHOWS A BROKEN AXIS OF EFFICIENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS STILL IMPACTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TX, INCLUDING EASTERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TX TRIANGLE.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ALONG IT
ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000+ J/KG
ARE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 2.25+ INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
LOW TO MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY TRANSITING THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN AREAS OF CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM-TOPPED AND THIS
WILL FAVOR VERY EFFICIENT PROCESSES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL
RATES GIVEN THE CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. SOME RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CAPABLE OF REACHING WELL INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR WITH THESE
ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF CONVECTION.
SLOW CELL-MOTIONS WILL FOSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFAL TOTALS. GENERALLY THE LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE EMPHASIZES THIS BEING AN ISOLATED CONCERN. THE LOCALLY
MOIST/WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL TEND TO
SUPPORT SOME CONCERN FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AS A RESULT.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32279675 31549647 30229670 29249734 29029813
29389881 30199892 31099862 32209766
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