265
AWUS01 KWNH 241424
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-242022-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1520
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241422Z - 242022Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF A QUICK
0.5 INCH OF RAIN COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 2030Z/230P MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEEPENING/EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NM IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY ASCENT FROM AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (~7.5C/KM). WHILE STORM MOTIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUICK
(AROUND 30-40 KNOTS), THE ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION, MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND 0.5-0.6 INCH PW VALUES ARE ALL FAVORING LOCAL
TRAINING AND LOCAL RAIN RATES OF 0.5 INCH/HR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CIBOLA COUNTY.
WITH TIME, INCREASING INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING SENSITIVE GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE THAT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
PRIOR RAINFALL. EVEN A QUICK 0.5-1 INCH OF RAINFALL COULD WORSEN
ONGOING IMPACTS OR CREATE NEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2030Z THIS AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC FORCING FAVORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE TODAY.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38470753 38340579 37710502 36480467 35310471
34120505 33350560 32940679 33160785 33760879
36050894 38170879
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