911
AWUS01 KWNH 171904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180102-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0116
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 171902Z - 180102Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 00Z/7P CENTRAL.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ALONG A
SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. JOSEPH, MO TO NEAR WICHITA,
KS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THE STORMS ARE IN AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 1.2-1.5 INCH
PW VALUES SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT AND INITIAL
CONVECTION WAS ALSO ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SUGGESTIVE OF AREAS OF TRAINING AS STORMS
MATURE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE LOCALIZED TRAINING (AND
PERHAPS CELL MERGERS WHERE INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN MOVE RIGHT OF MEAN
FLOW) SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SPOTS OF 1.5 INCH/HR RAIN RATES THAT
COULD RESULT FFG EXCEEDANCE AND FLASH FLOODING WITH TIME.
TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ANY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
THAT COULD MATERIALIZE. EVEN IF THE DOMINANT STORM MODE BECOMES
LINEAR, LOCAL TRAINING AXES ARE LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE AND ENHANCE
FLASH FLOOD RISK. THESE TRENDS, ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND, WILL BE MONITORED
FOR ANY CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40579404 40529265 39909261 37869402 37089542
36999727 37289839 38509719 40219524
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