333
AWUS01 KWNH 060347
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1457
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 060345Z - 060900Z
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA, INCLUDING THE FORGOTTEN COAST THROUGH 09Z.
PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...0330Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED HEAVY SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APALACHEE BAY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE, LOCATED
EAST TO NORTHEAST OF A 925-820 MB LOW LOCATED ~70 MILES WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. MRMS SHOWED A RECENT HISTORY OF HOURLY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3+ INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG I-10 TO THE NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WERE ESTIMATED AT 2.3 TO 2.4 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHILE MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WAS LIMITED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES VIA
THE 03Z SPC MESOANALYSIS, WITH INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE 925-850 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WHILE AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE FORGOTTEN COAST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE INTO THE REGION ATOP DIFFLUENT FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS,
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER, ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HOURLY RAINFALL OF 2-4
INCHES NEAR THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THESE HIGHER RATES MAY REMAIN
QUITE ISOLATED AND/OR REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FARTHER NORTH,
OVERRUNNING AND LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES (LIKELY LESS THAN 1 IN/HR)
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. PORTIONS OF THE REGION
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WHICH HAS LEFT
SOILS SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, WHILE THE COVERAGE
OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES MAY REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, SOME
FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITH OVERLAP OF URBAN OR
OTHERWISE POORLY DRAINING LOCATIONS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 30708509 30498468 30358434 30048412 29768407
29458425 29268464 29228507 29428563 29728592
30198620 30688581
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