053
AWUS01 KWNH 132142
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0100
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
541 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WISCONSIN, SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, AND
U.P. OF MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 132140Z - 140330Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ORGANIZE INTO TRAINING LINES OF STORMS, OVER AN AREA OF SATURATED
SOILS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
DISCUSSION... SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FED BY MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH PWATS AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE FRONT, BUT OVER 1.3
INCHES ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER, BASED ON THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS. CAMS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL THEN
SUPPORT TRAINING STORMS PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT SHOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO PUSH THE MCS
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
SOILS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ARE NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL AND AROUND THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN, RECENT SNOWMELT
AS SHOWN ON NASA SPORT IMAGERY. WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RIVER LEVELS
AND NEARLY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN, ALMOST
ALL OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS FORECAST MCS WILL CONVERT
TO RUNOFF QUICKLY. FFGS ACROSS THIS REGION ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND
1.5 INCHES/1 HOUR, 2 INCHES/3 HOURS, AND 2.5 INCHES/6 HOURS. THESE
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TRAINING
STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE CELLS
SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES HAVE A HISTORY OF RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HOUR AT TIMES, SHOWING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPABLE OF RATES EXCEEDING THESE AFOREMENTIONED FFG VALUES.
WEGMAN
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763
43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312
44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141
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