930
AWUS01 KWNH 180337
FFGMPD
FLZ000-180700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1503
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1135 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 180335Z - 180700Z
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A THREAT FOR SOME
URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WEST
PALM BEACH SOUTHWARD TO HOMESTEAD THROUGH 3 AM LOCAL TIME.
DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND WEST PALM BEACH WITH
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN JUST 5-10 MILES OFFSHORE, SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND NEAR DEERFIELD
BEACH, WITH REPORTS OF 4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES FROM PRIVATE
OBSERVING STATIONS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERWHELM DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS IN THE AREA, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED BUT IMPACTFUL
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 3 AM LOCAL TIME. INCREASING COASTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS
AND AFFECT MORE OF THE NEIGHBORING TOWNS.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED IN PLACEMENT OF THE
GREATEST QPF MAXIMA, WITH THE RRFS LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS,
AND THE HRRR MORE REASONABLE WITH PLACEMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 4-7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE THESE STORMS
PERSIST THE LONGEST, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND THIS COULD EASILY RESULT IN
SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 26918015 26838000 26567994 26008004 25638022
25748046 25948044 26318033 26648035 26818027
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