407
AWUS01 KWNH 150316
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150914-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1496
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK...WEST TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 150314Z - 150914Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING DEPICTS AN MCS EXHIBITING A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN (LEWP), WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN TX. UPWIND OF THE LEWP,
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE NEAR A STATIONARY
SEGMENT OF THE COLD POOL OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN
MPD 1495, THIS COMPLEX IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION, WITH LOW LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND MID-LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM HURRICANE
SIMON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS
PWS NEAR THE COMPLEX RANGE FROM 1.7-2.0", WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG.
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, THE MAIN AXIS OF TRAINING WILL FOCUS ALONG
THE COLD POOL AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
ALIGN FAVORABLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. STRONG THERMODYNAMIC
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN PWS EXCEEDING 2" AND MUCAPE VALUES IN THE
2000 J/KG RANGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, SUPPORTING
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2"/HR AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE
CELLS.
THROUGH 9Z, CAM GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. OWING TO THE PREVIOUS
24 HOURS OF HEAVY RAINFALL (UPWARDS OF 4-10" WEST OF THE OKC
METRO), THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
LIKELY, AND CONSIDERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER URBAN ZONES OR AREAS INUNDATED FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL.
ASHERMAN
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37139589 35859551 33349841 31030072 29520265
29810375 31290348 33610185 35190014 36519831
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