821
AWUS01 KWNH 030531
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-031130-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0570
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...IN AND NEAR SOUTHERN SD, NORTHEAST NE, & IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 030530Z - 031130Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO HOURLY
AMOUNTS TO 2.5" AND LOCAL TOTALS TO 5" THROUGH 1130Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SD, NE, & IA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER SATURATING SOILS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SD HAS BEEN PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST, FORCED FORWARD BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REDUCING
INSTABILITY IN ITS VICINITY. TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN NE HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE WHILE SHOWING
MINIMAL MOVEMENT PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER CONVECTION IN IA HAS SHOWN
OCCASIONAL TRAINING CHARACTER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-2" LIE IN THE REGION. MU CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 25-45 KTS, LEADING TO
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN SD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG WITH A FORMING COLD POOL UNDER THE NORTHEAST NE CONVECTION
SHOULD JOIN FORCES AND LEAD TO FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
NORTHEAST NE CONVECTION, ENDING CELL TRAINING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST
TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA WITH TIME. IN THE MEANTIME,
CELL TRAINING AND MERGERS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH ADDITIONAL
LOCAL TOTALS TO 5" INTO THE EARLY MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN THE MPD
AREA COULD END UP ACCUMULATING 10" OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH OF JULY
BY 1130Z. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE MODEST TO LOW DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LBF...MKX...
MPX...OAX...UNR...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 44280194 44169943 43719615 42938985 40439063
40779359 41999795 43270192
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