328
AWUS01 KWNH 180407
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180930-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0442
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...OHIO VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 180405Z - 180930Z
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH 09Z AS BANDS OF WEST TO EAST
TRAINING SETUP. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER)
SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4+ INCHES.
DISCUSSION...0345Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEST-EAST AXIS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SAINT LOUIS METRO INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL/IN AND SOUTHWESTERN OH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF
RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM NEAR STL TO CVG. SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA FROM
03Z SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
CONTAINED MLCAPE OF 1000-2000+ J/KG, WEST OF THE OH/IN BORDER AND
PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER OH AND
EASTERN KY WERE LIMITING INSTABILITY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AT
THE MOMENT.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS RESULTING IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH/KY AND WV.
LOW LEVEL AXES OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW
FROM WEST TO EAST ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF TRAINING
ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF THE OH VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
EASILY SUPPORT HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED
HOURLY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WAS
OBSERVED NEAR TERRE HAUTE, IN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE
MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40068118 39918048 39758009 39478010 38808094
38148293 37688594 37288930 37639009 38888967
39448824 39718452 39908264
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