965
AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0071
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 AM EDT THU APR 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KANSAS, WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 020529Z - 021029Z
SUMMARY...LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES -
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY EXACERBATING
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF TRAINING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LINE FROM JUST WEST OF COLUMBIA TO
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN. ALONG THIS AXIS, PERSISTENT
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN AROUND 2-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE RAINFALL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW (~40 KNOTS AT 850MB) IMPINGING ON A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WAS ENABLING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS AXIS. HEAVY RAIN HAS
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE IMPACTED REGION.
DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR JOPLIN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER NEAR BARTLESVILLE THAT WILL MIGRATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CLEARING LINE BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS
ROUGHLY ALONG US 75 (NEAR A PROPAGATING MCS) AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
2-4 HOURS TO CLEAR THE REGION. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE (AND PERHAPS WORSEN) THROUGH 10Z/5A CENTRAL.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING NATURE OF THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS LINEAR
SEGMENT/MCS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVERALL. LOW-WATER CROSSING AND SENSITIVE SPOTS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THIS REGIME.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402
37059514 37569530 38519466
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