993
AWUS01 KWNH 301552
FFGMPD
FLZ000-302050-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0896
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1151 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 301550Z - 302050Z
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES OVER 3"/HR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
WEST-CENTRAL FL, INCLUDING THE GREATER TAMPA BAY REGION. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-8+" MAY PROMPT URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING
WATER OVER ROADWAYS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA SHOW A PRIMARY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD NEAR TAMPA BAY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF TBW RECORDED A PW OF 2.41"
AND MLCAPE OF 2,015 J/KG. THESE ARE BOTH NEAR THE DAILY MAX IN
CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONALLY, FLOW OVER THE GULF INTO THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
12Z HREF AND REFS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 5 INCHES
OF RAIN BY 21Z ARE 40-60% FROM NEAR TAMPA EASTWARD NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF I-4. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE AREAS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED TO EXCEED 2" WITHIN 30 MINS AND IS ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST URBAN FLOODING OR PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS. THESE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
POTENTIALLY NEARING OR EXCEEDING 8 INCHES WITHIN THE MOST
PRONOUNCED AND SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
SNELL
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 28408277 28228198 28298126 28048102 27678115
27388161 27248208 27348266 27918293
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