906
AWUS01 KWNH 021802
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0927
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 021800Z - 030000Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE OVER HARD HIT AREAS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA,
LIKELY CAUSING RENEWED FLASH FLOODING. THERE'S A MORE CONDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING THREAT INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES OVER 3 INCHES PER HOUR. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BOTH
WHERE THE STORMS ARE NOW OVER GEORGIA AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AS WELL. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY VALUES FROM
2,500 J/KG NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER TO NEAR 4,000 J/KG NEAR WHERE THE
STORMS ARE NOW IN GEORGIA. A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST IS
PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR THE STORMS, WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE TUNE OF PWATS BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES.
THUS, THESE STORMS HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING
TO NOT ONLY PERSIST ON THEIR JOURNEY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE FRONT,
BUT THRIVE.
CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORMS LIKELY CONSOLIDATING AS THEY
APPROACH THE GA/SC BORDER INTO A LINE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST, WITH CLUSTERS MOVING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREAS SEEING PROLONGED DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM AUGUSTA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
CHARLOTTE. THE GOOD NEWS IS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY THE 00Z ENDING
OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AS
THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AND SC THAT THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT BY THEN.
MEANWHILE, FURTHER SOUTHWEST, ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF, AND ADDRESSED BY MPD 924
WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NEAR
DOTHAN, AND THEN INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SOILS ARE A MIX OF
SATURATED AND DRY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA DUE TO SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IS MORE
CONDITIONAL. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE THERE
AS WELL, AND THE COLD FRONT IS HAVING NO TROUBLE ADVANCING TO THE
GULF COAST, SO THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE ANY TROUBLE FORMING IN THESE AREAS. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
MAY THEREFORE BE MORE DRIVEN ON WHETHER THE STORMS THAT IMPACT THE
AREA MOVE OVER SOILS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PRIOR DAYS'
STORMS IN FLOODING PRONE AREAS.
WEGMAN
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 35408063 34228026 33808036 32858119 32278176
31978204 31648265 30928297 30808331 31148337
31298372 31398443 31318477 31218517 31048565
31508560 31988535 32358502 33228410 33458376
33798333 34208261 34488220 34768187 35098145
35358117
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