330
AWUS01 KWNH 211535
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0124
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1133 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 211533Z - 212100Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST GOING INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLOODING THROUGH 4 PM
LOCAL TIME.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS AND GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION, CENTERED MAINLY BETWEEN SAN SABA AND COLUMBUS, TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRIMARILY DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF
ENHANCED ASCENT FROM A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERSECTING MOIST 20-30 KNOT 850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND THIS BAND
HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ITSELF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY
LIMITED LATITUDINAL DISPLACEMENT OVER THE MORNING HOURS.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED QPF
MAXIMA ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 21Z, WITH RECENT ARW
RUNS MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIME. THE SOILS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED AND PRONE TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING, WITH SOME REGIONS GETTING 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
JUST THE PAST 12 HOURS AS DEPICTED IN THE GRAPHIC, AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS DROPPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS. EVEN THOUGH THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST AND MOST RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR OR LESS, SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31399745 31079654 30659580 30219534 29699511
29059518 28879550 28899585 28989632 29229708
29909767 30189812 30509848 30959864 31259830
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