344
AWUS01 KWNH 241033
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241431-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0016
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
531 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241031Z - 241431Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS NEAR HOUSTON METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
MAINTAINED ELEVATED BUOYANCY ATOP A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS BUOYANCY, COMBINED
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION HAS TRIGGERED INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON METRO. THESE CELLS WERE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, BUT WERE ALSO IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ~1.5 INCH
PW VALUES, SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RECENT MRMS DATA
SUGGESTS 1 INCH/HR RATES BENEATH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.
ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY, THESE CELLS WILL MIGRATE TOWARD AREAS
NEAR HOUSTON METRO AND POINTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR
SO. 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO URBAN
PONDING/EXCESSIVE RUNOFF ESPECIALLY IF LOCALIZED TRAINING CAN BE
ESTABLISHED. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LAST FOR ABOUT
2-4 HOURSOR SO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VICTORIA TO COTULLA. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
COAST THROUGH 13-14Z (7-8AM CENTRAL). ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE SOME BEHIND THIS FRONT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
AND CONTRIBUTES TO STABILIZATION.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 30509549 30309452 29749446 28879538 28459699
28869758 29829739 30299658
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