277
FOUS11 KWBC 152000
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 00Z MON FEB 16 2026 - 00Z THU FEB 19 2026
..CASCADES & OLYMPICS
DAYS 2-3...
ON MONDAY, A STRENGTHENING 500MB TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TOWARDS WASHINGTON STATE. THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH DOWN THE COAST TUESDAY, MOVING OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. THEN THE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE
STATE, AS IT RE-OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. WITH THIS VERY COMPLEX,
RAPIDLY CHANGING, BUT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION, A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND EXCELLENT 500MB PVA, COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF 850-300MB MEAN- LAYER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT,
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL PLUMMET TO AS LOW AS 600FT AROUND THE WA CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS MONDAY MORNING, WHILE 3,000FT SNOW LEVELS IN THE OR
CASCADES WILL BE MORE COMMON. SOME OF OR'S COASTAL RANGE COULD SEE
SNOW TO ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 1,000FT ON TUESDAY. WHILE THESE SNOW
LEVELS ARE GETTING QUITE LOW, SNOWFALL TOTALS BELOW 2,000FT IN THE
WA/OR CASCADES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT COMPARED TO MANY
WINTER TIME SNOW EVENTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ABOVE
3,000FT WHERE 72-HOUR WPC PROBABILITIES ARE NOW INTO THE HIGHER
MODERATE RANGE (50-70%) FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS >4" FOR
BOTH SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASSES. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION BUT
LACK OF HEAVY HOURLY RATES, WSSI-P SHOWS THE CHANCES FOR MINOR
IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE (20-40%). IMPACTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE A COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
..CALIFORNIA
DAYS 2-3...
...MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY AND DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN RANGES TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...
A PAIR OF POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL WORK TOGETHER TO DIRECT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AT THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE "GOLDEN
STATE" BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SUPPLY LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ALLOWS FOR
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISKIYOU, SHASTA, AND SALMON MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE 5,000FT WHERE 1-2 FEET OF NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS THUS FAR BEEN FAR ENOUGH
OFF THE COAST TO KEEP ASSOCIATED IMPACTS MINIMAL, WILL APPROACH THE
COAST. MID- TO- UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER CA IN RESPONSE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING IVT TO DIRECT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AT THE STATE. THE STATE WILL BE PLACED AHEAD OF A 500MB
JET STREAK THAT WILL GENERATE EXCELLENT UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, ALONG WITH A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICALLY- ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
MONDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 6,000FT,
THEN FALLING TO AS LOW AS 3,000FT BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
SIERRA, AND 4,000 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. SNOWFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1-2"/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME INSTANCES OF >3"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE TRANSVERSE RANGES ABOVE 6,000FT.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE CA MOUNTAIN RANGES AS A SECOND, ARGUABLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, CLOSELY FOLLOWING
THE FIRST. THIS WILL SPIKE ONSHORE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
SUPPLY ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE UPPER LOW. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1,000 FT IN FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
(INCLUDING THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGE) TUESDAY NIGHT, AROUND
2,500FT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND JUST BELOW 5,000 FT INTO THE
TRANSVERSE RANGES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE STATE'S
MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE.
CALIFORNIA'S MOUNTAIN RANGES WELCOME THE SNOW, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
COME DOWN FAST AND FURIOUS BOTH TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. THROUGH THE
END OF THIS DISCUSSION'S TIMEFRAME (00Z THU), MULTIPLE FEET OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST ABOVE 5,000FT ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. WPC
PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH CHANCES (>70%) FOR >30" OF SNOW ALONG
DONNER PASS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AND MORE SNOW STILL TO COME. THE
WSSI SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF EXTREME IMPACTS (SUBSTANTIAL
DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE; EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL OR IMPOSSIBLE
DRIVING CONDITIONS, EXTENSIVE CLOSURES) FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY
ABOVE 6,000FT, ALTHOUGH SOME EXTREME IMPACTS AS LOW AS 5,000FT ARE
POSSIBLE. MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME IMPACTS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
PEAKS OF THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNADINO MOUNTAINS, WITH MOSTLY
MODERATE-TO-MAJOR IMPACTS (INCREASINGLY MORE DISRUPTIVE TO TRAVEL
JUMPING FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR). NOTE THAT THERE ARE ALSO MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE IMPACTS ALONG I-5 AROUND MOUNT SHASTA, SIGNIFYING
POTENTIAL TRAVEL DELAYS FOR I-5 IN THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN CA.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DAYS 1-3...
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA AND REACH MANY
RANGES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH A LACK OF A FRIGID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS HEALTHY
MOISTURE SOURCE, SNOW WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO MANY OF THE
TALLER MOUNTAIN PEAKS THAT SORELY NEED BENEFICIAL SNOWPACK. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL RESIDE IN THE BITTERROOTS, THE LEWIS RANGE,
SAWTOOTH, AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. FARTHER SOUTH, MOST
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GREAT BASIN, THE WASATCH, UINTA, MOGOLLON RIM,
AND CO/NM ROCKIES WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE PEAKS AROUND
ZION NAT'L PARK ON NORTH ALONG THE WASATCH SPORT HIGH (>70%)
CHANCES OF 72-HOUR SNOW TOTALS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER A FOOT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE QUIETEST DAY WITH MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON, OREGON, IDAHO, AND WESTERN
MONTANA SEEING 1-4" OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW.
ON TUESDAY, THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER-LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST
WILL HELP TO USHER THE INITIAL UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA EAST INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, CAUSING WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND A
LARGER FOOTPRINT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO TRACK THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN WESTERN MT AND
NORTHERN ID, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE SALT LAKE
CITY AREA. STILL, THE LACK OF A FRIGID AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RANGES SUCH
AS THE WASATCH, BEAR RIVER, TETONS, UINTA, AND WIND RIVER SEEING
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THEIR PEAKS. MANY OF THE CO ROCKIES
WILL ALSO RECEIVE SNOWFALL, BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS >8" WILL BE
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9,000FT.
72-HOUR WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH CHANCES (>70%) FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS >8" FOR MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST'S RANGES, BUT THE
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTAL'S (>12") ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
PEAKS OF THE LEWIS RANGE, THE BITTERROOTS, SAWTOOTH, BLUE, BEAR
RIVER, WASATCH, AND UINTA.
..UPPER MIDWEST & GREAT LAKES
DAY 3...
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT YET VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT WAS ORIGINALLY OVER SOUTHERN CA LATE MONDAY WILL RACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS. IT WILL PROJECT EXCELLENT 500MB
PVA OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF SATS SHOWS A ROARING
150KT 200MB JET STREAK (WIND SPEEDS TOPPING THE 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE) OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PLACE ITS DIVERGENT LEFT-EXIT
REGION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THE AID OF LEE-SIDE DOWNSLOPING
AND LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN MT THAT REACHES AS LOW AS 980MB TUESDAY
MORNING, OR MSLP VALUES THAT ARE BELOW THE 1ST CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE. AS WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT REACHES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ENSUE AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR
RUNS INTO A COLDER/DRIER AIR-MASS OVER NORTHERN ND AND NORTHERN
MN. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MT, NORTHERN ND, AND AS FAR EAST
AS THE MN ARROWHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, FROM NORTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN WI TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF MICHIGAN'S MITTEN, THE
OVERRUNNING SETUP WOULD FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WPC PROBABILITIES
HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SHOW MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR MODERATE
IMPACTS (HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS REQUIRING EXTRA CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING) DUE TO ICE ACCRETION IN PARTS OF MICHIGAN'S UPPER
PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE MITTEN.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS COULD APPROACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK, AS
WELL AS WHEN THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR. SNOW BENEATH THE
STRENGTHENING TROWAL OVER NORTHEAST MT AND NORTHERN ND WOULD
PERHAPS NOT ONLY SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW, BUT THE IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF
THE CYCLONE ITSELF WOULD FOSTER BLOWING SNOW ON ITS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN FLANKS. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL, THE FORECAST PROBABILITIES
HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED. IN PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD,
CHANCES ARE MODERATE-TO-HIGH (60-80%) FOR >8" OF SNOWFALL THROUGH
00Z THU. MOST OF FAR NORTHEAST MT, NORTHERN ND, AND NORTHERN MN
HAVE MODERATE CHANCES (50-70%) FOR >4" OF SNOWFALL, BUT THIS IS AN
AREA WHERE ANY MINOR CHANGE IN DURATION OR PLACEMENT IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS COULD RESULT IN NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. REGARDLESS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
WHERE ALL OF THESE AREAS HAVE HIGH CHANCES (>80%) FOR MINOR
IMPACTS (PER WSSI-P) DUE TO SOME COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
..NORTHEAST
DAY 1...
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AREAS
FROM SOUTHEAST PA ACROSS THE DELAWARE RIVER AND INTO NJ AND AS FAR
EAST AS LONG ISLAND FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. WSSI-P VALUES HAVE
DECREASED IN THIS AREA TO ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS IN
THIS REGION. MOST EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS ARE MINOR AND LIKELY TO
RANGE BETWEEN A COATING-2" FROM SOUTHEAST PA (WITH ELEVATION) ON
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NJ, WHEREAS THE NYC METRO FORECASTS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW AN INCH. SNOW SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONCLUDE TOMORROW MORNING.
WEGMAN/ MULLINAX
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