068
FOUS11 KWBC 300742
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 30 2026 - 12Z THU APR 02 2026
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAY 1...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL ID RANGES
INTO THE ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORNS TODAY. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY INCOMING MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC
SYSTEM. THROUGH 12Z TUE, WPC PROBABILITIES OF AN ADDITIONAL 6
INCHES OF SNOW ARE >50% OVER THE ABSAROKAS.
..SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CO ROCKIES
DAYS 2-3...
AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODEST SNOW TO THE SIERRA, WASATCH,
UINTAS, AND CO ROCKIES AS IT ZIPS EASTWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH (8000-9000FT THOUGH FALLING ~1000FT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH) WITH WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
AT LEAST 50% ABOVE 7500FT (SIERRA) TO 10,000FT (CO). TOTALS IN THE
CO ROCKIES MAY ECLIPSES A FOOT ABOVE 11,000FT.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DAY 3...
NEXT SYSTEM OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BARREL TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF ITS RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT. TRAILING MID-
LEVEL LOW WILL SUSTAIN MODEST SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES YET AGAIN. THE FOCUS MAY
BE THE SOUTHERN WA CASCADES, OR CASCADES, CENTRAL ID RANGES, AND
NORCAL RANGES INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THERE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4000-7000FT (NORTH TO SOUTH) AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN
FALL TO 2500-6000FT POST-FROPA. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8
INCHES OF SNOW ARE >50% ABOVE 5000FT OR SO IN THE OR CASCADES AND
7000FT IN NORCAL AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 2...
THE SYSTEM EXITING THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED
TO NORTHERN NY/VT/NH AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE AS PRECIPITATION
ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUITE FAR TO
THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY (WI OR INTO LOWER MI), COLD AIR MAY HANG ON
LONGER IN SHELTERED AREAS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO START BUT THEN MORE LIKELY A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MATERIALIZE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS
IN SOME WARMER AIR WITHIN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INTO THE MID-LEVELS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK POTENTIALLY NO
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE VT-NH/QUEBEC BORDER, THIS COULD PROLONG THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR
>0.25" OF ICE ACCUMULATION ARE 10-30% ACROSS NORTHWEST ME.
..UPPER MIDWEST/CORN BELT/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DAY 3...
SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A GENEROUS FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF NORTHWARD AND A MARGINALLY BUT SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILE NORTH OF ABOUT I-80, AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (CONTINUING BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD). UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, COMPOUNDED BY THE SPREAD IN
PTYPES FROM THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW, THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY,
EXPECT A WEST-TO-EAST SWATH OF SNOW FARTHEST TO THE NORTH (SD
EASTWARD TO WI AND MI) AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
(IOWA EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI INTO LOWER MI). AGAIN, THESE
AREAS MAY SHIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DEPENDING ON HOW THE
STORM EVOLVES OVER/EAST OF THE ROCKIES. JUST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY,
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE 10-40% FROM SD
EASTWARD TO ABOUT NORTHERN WI. FOR FREEZING RAIN, PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 0.10" ICING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY ARE 10-50% OVER SOUTHERN
WI AND INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI. THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI IS ALREADY
SHOWING 20-40% CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS DAY 3, AND EVEN HIGHER
BEYOND. SEE OUR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION (PMDEPD) FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRACASSO
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