238
FOUS11 KWBC 261817
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
117 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 27 2026 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2026
..CASCADES & NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-2...
STRONG WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WILL DIRECT MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF THE WA
CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2000-3000FT ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 2000FT ACROSS NORTHWEST MT ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD AND INCREASES PRECIPITATION LATE
DAY 1 AND EARLY ON DAY 2. WPC 48-HR PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8"
OF SNOW REMAIN HIGH (70-90%+) ABOVE ABOUT 4000FT IN THE NORTHERN
WA CASCADES AND THE LEWIS RANGE/GLACIER NATIONAL PARK REGION OF
NORTHWEST MT.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
DAY 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND SINK RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY, REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH, A MODEST 700MB TROUGH WILL DIVE E/SE ALONG THE
FRONT, PUSHING MODEST WAA ATOP THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
THEN CONTINUING E/SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO NEAR-
NORMAL PWS TO SUPPORT EXPANDING PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY MANIFEST AS A NARROW CHANNEL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW RATES AS A DYNAMIC JET STRUCTURE ARCS OVERHEAD ENHANCING THE
700-600MB FGEN TO PROVIDE LIFT DIRECTLY INTO THE DEEPENING DGZ.
THIS SHOULD CREATE A NARROW BAND OF SNOW TRANSLATING ALONG ITS LONG
AXIS, LEADING TO A LONG DURATION OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FROM
EASTERN MT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC PROBABILITIES ARE MODERATE (50-70%
CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 4 INCHES POSSIBLE (10-30%), HIGHEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DAY 3...
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WEST IS PROGGED TO BECOME SUPPRESSED
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE PACIFIC AND
RACES QUICKLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL MOVE ATOP THE LOW-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING INCREASED ASCENT. MOST OF
THIS LIFT WILL BE PRODUCED VIA ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES, WITH THE DRIVING WAA PUSHING A WARM NOSE
NORTHWARD ATOP THE COLD DOME TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO BOTH NORTHWARD LATITUDINAL ADVANCE
OF PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RATES, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SWATH OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY, CURRENT WPC PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A 10-30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
EASTERN KS/NE THROUGH SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO, WITH FREEZING
RAIN EXCEEDING 0.01 INCHES POSSIBLE (10-30%) CHANCE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
WEISS/MILLER
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