357
FOUS11 KWBC 061907
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 07 2026 - 00Z TUE MAR 10 2026
..ROCKIES, CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
DAY 1...
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS UNFOLDING THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CO
ROCKIES WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN
PRODUCING SNOW AND ICE OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVER THE CO ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT TAPER OFF
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. A 300MB JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL PLACE ITS DIFFLUENT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS ANOMALOUS PWATS STREAM OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. NARROW
STRIPES OF 850MB AND 700MB FGEN ARE EXPECTED TO ORIENT THEMSELVES
IN A SW-NE FASHION FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA AND WESTERN NE TO AS
FAR NORTH AND EAST AS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH MODEST OVER-RUNNING
AT LOW-LEVELS THAT CAUSES FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NE,
EASTERN SD, NORTHWEST IA, AND INTO BOTH MN AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WI SATURDAY MORNING,
BANDED SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL MN AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WITH
AN ICY WINTRY MIX THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TWIN CITIES AND
PARTS OF MI'S UPPER PENINSULA (U.P.). THE U.P. WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW LATE MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY SUNSET.
WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW A NARROW AREA OF MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES
(50-70%) FOR OVER 2" OF SNOWFALL FROM NORTHEAST CO ON NORTH AND
EAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL NE. THERE SOME SOME MODELS MEMBERS THAT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR >4" ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW, WHICH
COULD EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND CENTRAL MN AS WELL. THE WSSI
DOES DEPICT MINOR IMPACTS FROM THE DENVER METRO AREA FROM ONGOING
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN NE AND SOUTHERN SD. MEANWHILE, ICE
WILL BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC FROM NE'S SAND HILLS ON NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH EASTERN SD AND CENTRAL MN GIVEN MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES
(50-80%) FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE-HUNDRETH OF AN INCH.
SOUTHWEST MN SPORTS LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR ICE
AMOUNTS OVER ONE-TENTH ON AN INCH. EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
ROADS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY (EXCEPTIONS NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI)
AND THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE FORCES MOST ROADWAYS TO MELT ANY
LINGERING ICE THAT IS EXPOSED TO SUNLIGHT.
..WA CASCADES & LEWIS RANGE
DAYS 2-3...
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SLUG OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND
THE LEWIS RANGE. NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE A MOISTURE SUPPLY AMIDST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT FALLING 500-700MB HEIGHTS AND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FORCE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS TO DROP BELOW 3,00F0T
IN THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES, AND TO AS LOW AS 4,000FT IN THE
SOUTHERN WA CASCADES. FARTHER EAST, SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY OVER
6,000FT IN ELEVATION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 5,000FT
IN THE LEWIS RANGE AND GLACIER NAT'L PARK. ANY HIGHER, MORE REMOTE
ELEVATION SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DESCEND TO PASS LEVEL IN THE
CASCADES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES (>70%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS
>6" OVER SNOQUALMIE PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE LOW-
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR AS MUCH AS 12" AROUND SNOQUALMIE PASS AS WELL,
INDICATING THERE IS A MORE SNOWY AND IMPACTFUL SCENARIO AT PLAY FOR
THE PASS. IN THE LEWIS RANGE, WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE-TO-
HIGH CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >4" WITH LOW CHANCES
(10-30%) FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 12" IN THE MORE REMOTE PEAKS.
THE WSSI-P BETWEEN 00Z SUN - 00Z MON DEPICTS MODERATE-TO-HIGH
CHANCES (50-80%) FOR MINOR IMPACTS FROM SNOQUALMIE PASS ON NORTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES, WHILE GLACIER NAT'L PARK
ELEVATIONS OVER 6,000FT SPORT MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR MINOR
IMPACTS.
MULLINAX
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