134
FOUS11 KWBC 192014
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 20 2026 - 00Z MON FEB 23 2026
..CALIFORNIA
DAY 1 AND 3...
...HEAVY, DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL FOR THE CALIFORNIA RANGES SUBSIDES
THIS EVENING...
CURRENT HEAVY SNOW SIGNATURE ACROSS THE SIERRA'S WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 3-6 HRS WITH A SCALING BACK IN INTENSITY BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, CUTTING OFF COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES INLAND AND THE MOISTURE FEED/ASCENT SHIFTS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL >4 INCHES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
10-30% ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA'S WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF 40-70% LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH A MID-POINT
NEAR MAMMOTH.
STORM TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BETWEEN 1-2
FEET ONCE THE STORM ENDS LEADING TO WEEK LONG TOTALS EXCEEDING 5
FEET IN MANY OF THE TERRAIN AREAS ABOVE 8000FT MSL ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA.
THE TAIL END OF D3 WILL SEE THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENTERING INTO NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN OR.
HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL ENSUE FOR THE TERRAIN OF NORTH AND
NORTHWEST CA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE THE BOUNDS OF MOUNT SHASTA AND
THE SISKIYOU/KLAMATH RANGES WHERE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW IS PLAUSIBLE ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES
DAYS 1-2...
PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SOCAL RANGES
WILL SPREAD MUCH NEEDED SNOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
4000 TO 5000FT. DAY 1-2 SNOW PROBS FOR >8" ARE 50-90% FOR THE
SOUTHERN UTAH RANGES AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU IN NORTHERN AZ. SNOW
PROBS FOR >12" ARE ALSO FAIRLY STOUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000FT
MSL SETTLING BETWEEN 30-70% WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR THE PEAKS.
THESE SAME PROBS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE SAN JUANS FOR THE
DAY 1.5-2 WINDOW.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-2...
CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY WELL-DEFINED NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH
THE PRIMARY AXIS BISECTING NE BACK INTO WY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE ITS EJECTION PATTERN TO THE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
REMAINDER OF D1 INTO D2 WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF THE MATURING 700MB LOW POSITIONED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER,
MIGRATING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS BEFORE TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS ITS OCCLUSION PHASE OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. RADAR PRESENTATION OVER NE SHOWS A
CLASSIC TROWAL PATTERN WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ALIGNED WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE SAND HILL REGIONS WITH RATES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5-1.5"/HR BASED ON LATEST OBS. EXPECTING
SIMILAR RATES DOWNSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE INTO IA AND PARTS OF WI AS
THE CYCLONE EVOLVES LEADING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL IN ITS WAKE.
DAY 1-2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 30-60% ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IA, EXCLUDING NORTHWESTERN IA, WITH THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BEST PROBS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST WI.
LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW THEN INVIGORATES
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE U.P. FRIDAY WITH
DAY 2 SNOW PROBS 30-70% FOR >6", HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MICHIGAN U.P.
..MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
DAY 2-3...
MID-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR APART/OPEN OVER NY STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH
IT STILL HAS PLENTY OF ENERGY TO TRANSLATE TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH PA/NY STATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ARRIVING INTO THE REST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY LATE-FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PIVOTING
EAST NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY EVENING.
WARM NOSE PROGRESSION LOOKS TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH IN THE
D1-1.5 TIME FRAME BEFORE EVENTUALLY HITTING A WALL AS IT APPROACHES
THE LATITUDE OF I-90. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 LATITUDE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ENDING AS SNOW WITH
THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION POTENTIAL SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST PA UP
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NY STATE. FURTHER NORTH, HEAVY SNOWFALL
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE ADIRONDAK'S TO POINTS EAST INTO THE GREEN
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WITHIN VT/NH. FORECAST MAXIMA (10+ INCHES) WILL BE LOCATED IN AREAS
ABOVE 3000FT MSL AS SNOW RATIOS REMAIN >12:1 THROUGH THE STORMS
LIFE CYCLE. DAY 2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 50-80% OVER THIS
TERRAIN/AREA. DAY 1-2 ICE PROBS FOR >0.1" ARE AROUND 40-70% IN THE
CATSKILLS TO THE POCONOS, BUT >0.25" REMAINS RELATIVELY MEAGER
BETWEEN 5-15% IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE WARM NOSE SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRIPE OF SLEET ACCUMS BETWEEN THE ICE AND SNOW
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM NOSE KEY TO WHERE THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP WHICH DOES LOOK TO ALIGN WITH
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-90.
FOR D3 AND BEYOND, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROSPECTS OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A
COMPLEX PHASING SCENARIO IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE BETWEEN A MIGRATING
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF CANADA ON THE LEE-SIDE OF A
BUILDING PNA RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. AS OF NOW, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EJECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT EVEN MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PIVOTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA. 12Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS BASED ON GLOBAL ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION
SIGNALS A RELATIVE 3-WAY SPLIT IN THE SENSIBLE OUTCOME WITH ONE
CLUSTER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IN IMPACT COMPARED TO THE OTHER TWO
SCENARIOS. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLUSTER INVOLVES MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS
ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA WITH LOWER HEIGHT PRESENCE UPSTREAM NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH A SHARPER PHASING BETWEEN
THE JET STREAMS ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO PUMP DOWNSTREAM AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY AND PRODUCES A MORE MATURE SURFACE
CYCLONE WEST OF THE BENCHMARK. THE OTHER TWO CLUSTERS ARE GENERALLY
FLATTER UP TOP ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE EVOLUTION AS THE PHASE EVENTUALLY OCCURS FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLUSTER IS COMPRISED OF A HEAVY GEFS PERCENTAGE
WITH ONLY A SMALL COMPROMISE OF GEPS AND ECENS MEMBERS WHILE THE
OTHER TWO CLUSTERS ARE MORE OF AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE
GEPS/ECENS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. THIS IS
IMPORTANT TO MONITOR IN TERMS OF OVERALL TRENDS AS SMALL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
HOLD SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT ON IMPENDING IMPACTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
AS OF NOW, THE SIGNAL IS LIKELY FOR COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TO BE JUST
OFF-SHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME MINOR IMPACTS DIRECTLY
FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THAT SAID, PHASING PATTERN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A MEAN TROUGH TILTING NEUTRAL AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY INITIATE A NORLUN
(INVERTED) TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING CARRYING INTO MONDAY. THESE SETUPS
ARE TRICKY IN THEIR EVOLUTION AND CAN STILL PACK A PUNCH IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR LEADING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE ACCESS OF STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT. HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE STREAM PHASES LOWER
REGIONAL HEIGHT FIELDS LEADING TO COOLER AIR ALOFT MIXING AND
SHIFTING LIQUID HYDROMETEORS OVER TO MATURING ICE CRYSTAL
STRUCTURES LEADING TO A SHIFT FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
VARIABILITY IN TOTALS FROM RUN TO RUN WILL BE FOUND IN GUIDANCE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
EVOLUTION, AS WELL AS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
PBL (PLANETARY BOUNDARY-LAYER) LEADING INTO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION.
A LOT TO MONITOR IN THIS SETUP, SO BE SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST FROM WPC AND YOUR LOCAL WFO'S LEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
JACKSON/KLEEBAUER
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