877
FOUS11 KWBC 021848
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 03 2026 - 00Z FRI MAR 06 2026
..MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST
DAYS 1-2...
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE TO THE EAST, AND
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WAS ABLE TO SLIP COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, SETTING UP A WINTRY MIX FOR
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
TOMORROW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST ALSO MOVES
NORTHWARD. IN THE INTERVENING HOURS, SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH WARMING LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FAVORS
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND SNOW TO THE NORTH WHERE THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD TOMORROW
ALONG WITH THE PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY CARRY THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. FROM AROUND I-90 NORTHWARD, WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LOW (10-40%) AS MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
IN THE 1-3" RANGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
THE FREEZING RAIN FOOTPRINT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWESTERN VA NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-79 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TO ABOUT I-90 AND EASTWARD TO ABOUT
I-95. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST WHERE THE COLD
AIR HOLDS ON LONGEST NEAR THE HIGHEST QPF, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS (EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA INTO PA IN
THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS). WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.10" ICING ARE >50% OVER MANY OF THESE GENERALLY ELEVATED AREAS,
WITH SOME AREAS OF EASTERN WV RECEIVING AROUND/OVER 0.25" ICE.
..CENTRAL ROCKIES
DAY 1...
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/PVA AND A MODEST (90-100KT)
JET STREAK WILL ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW, ESPECIALLY ABOVE
7000 FT IN THE UINTAS, TETONS, WIND RIVERS, LARAMIE RANGE, AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CO ROCKIES INCLUDING THE PARK AND FRONT RANGES.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE >50% ABOVE ABOUT 8000FT OR SO.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 2-3...
A DEEPENING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOMORROW, BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE LEVELS AND IVT ANOMALIES WILL BE
MODEST, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 5000-6000FT BEFORE
FALLING POST-FROPA TO AROUND 4000FT WEDNESDAY THEN TO NEAR 3000FT
THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MUCH LIGHTER. SNOW WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (NORTHERN ID TO NORTHWESTERN MT)
EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN TO THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN OR. SNOW COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR/ABOVE PASS LEVEL AS SNOW LEVELS FALL ACROSS
THE CASCADES TOMORROW NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN UT
WITH SNOW SPREADING INTO THE UINTAS AND WASATCH AS WELL AS WESTERN
WY RANGES, CONTINUING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST OVER
THE WA/OR CASCADES, GENERALLY ABOVE 4000-5000FT. PLOWABLE SNOW (AT
LEAST A COUPLE INCHES) IS LIKELY (>80% CHANCE) AROUND SNOQUALMIE
PASS. TO THE EAST, WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE >50% ABOVE 5000-6000FT OR SO OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL
ID RANGES, WESTERN MT, AND NORTHERN NV.
FRACASSO
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