396
FOUS11 KWBC 230712
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 23 2026 - 12Z MON OCT 26 2026
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAY 1...
NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEVADA OVER
IDAHO AND MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW BRINGS MODERATE PRECIP RATES, BUT HIGH SNOW LEVELS OVER
9,000FT THIS MORNING WITH LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000FT THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS IN ID/MT (WHILE STAYING ABOVE
7500FT THROUGH THE EVENT IN WYOMING) WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER SUMMITS. BANDING IS EXPECTED AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 5000FT IN WEST-CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. DAY 1 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 40-70% FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM CENTRAL ID THROUGH SOUTHWEST MT WITH UP TO 80% FOR THE
TETONS AND WIND RIVER IN WY AND THE BEARTOOTH RANGE IN SOUTHWEST
MT WHERE 10" SNOW IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING A QUICK END TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.
..COLORADO
DAYS 1-2...
MAIN BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE SAN JUANS IN CO
EARLY THIS MORNING. BRINGS MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH, AROUND 11,000FT TODAY. DAY 1 SNOW
PROBS FOR >4" ARE 40-80% FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES INTO A LOW OVER THE CA/AZ BORDER
THIS EVENING BEFORE TRACKING TO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 9000FT WITH MODERATE PRECIP RATES. DAY
2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 50-80% FOR MUCH OF THE SAN JUANS AND
30-50% FOR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES IN CENTRAL CO. THE
PRECIP PLUME SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACROSS THE CONUS IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.
JACKSON
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