389
FOUS11 KWBC 112028
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 00Z MON OCT 12 2026 - 00Z THU OCT 15 2026
..MONTANA
DAY 1...
REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM RACHEL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED BROAD PRECIP SHIELD LIFTS
NORTH FROM EASTERN IDAHO REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WYOMING CAN EXPECT MORE SNOW
WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENT FROM BANDING. SNOW RATES OF 0.5 TO 1" PER
HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RATES UP TO 0.5" PER HOUR CROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. DAY 1 SNOW PROBS FOR >4" ARE 40-80% ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND 20-50% IN TERRAIN AROUND
THE FORT BELKNAP RESERVATION. SNOW SHOULD BE LARGELY NORTHEAST OF
MONTANA BY 12Z MONDAY.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TERRAIN
DAYS 1-2...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ROBUST WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE EAST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10,000FT FROM
NEVADA THROUGH WYOMING TONIGHT WITH HEIGHT FALLS BRINGING THE LEVEL
DOWN TO AROUND 7000FT OVER CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SOME COOLER AIR CONTINUES WITH UTAH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8000FT MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ONLY DROPPING TO
9000FT OVER WYOMING. DAY 1 AND 2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 30-60%
OVER CENTRAL NV AND SOUTHERN UT AND WASATCH RANGES AND 50-80% FOR
THE HIGH UINTA AND WIND RIVER RANGES.
..COLORADO ROCKIES
DAY 3...
THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW LEVELS OVER THE
CO ROCKIES TO AROUND 9000FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP RATES ALLOW
DAY 3 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" TO BE 30-60% FOR THE FRONT RANGE, CENTRAL
CO RANGES, AND THE HIGHEST SAN JUANS.
..NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
DAY 2...
A PROGRESSIVE LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
WITH LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO A WINTRY MIX OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN MAINE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION, THEN
SNOW, SLEET, AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY. DAY 2 SNOW
PROBS FOR >4" ARE AROUND 10% IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK CO. A BIAS TO
FREEZING RAIN IN MANY PTYPE ALGORITHMS MAY BE POINTING TO FAR IN
THAT DIRECTION, BUT FOR NOW DAY 2 ICE PROBS FOR >0.1" ARE UP TO
AROUND 10% IN WESTERN INTERIOR MAINE NEAR THE QUEBEC BORDER.
JACKSON
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