859
FOUS11 KWBC 010805
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 01 2026 - 12Z MON MAY 04 2026
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DAY 1...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF ARIZONA IS BRINGING RAIN TO
SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. IN THE COLD SECTOR TO THE NORTH, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO NORTHEAST NM IS AIDING LIFT ON THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS WHERE SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 7500FT. THE SFC HIGH
STRENGTHENS TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ID SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMOTES
INSTABILITY OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8500FT. DAY
1 SNOW PROBS FOR >4" ADDITIONAL AFTER 12Z ARE 40-70% IN THE SAN
JUANS AND NM PORTION OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. MOUNTAIN PRECIP
DIMINISHES LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
..SIERRA NEVADA
DAY 3...
A LARGE, BUT OVERALL WEAK LOW SHIFTS ONSHORE NEAR THE BAY AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE SIERRA NEVADA.
MINOR HEIGHT FALLS ALLOW SIERRA NEVADA SNOW LEVELS TO FALL FROM
ABOUT 9500FT TO 8500FT DURING THE MAIN ROUND OF PRECIP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRECIP RATES, THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS, AND TIMING
DURING PEAK DIURNAL LIMITS SNOW TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE DAY 3 PROBS FOR >2" ARE AROUND 20%.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONUS.
JACKSON
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