531
FOUS11 KWBC 200711
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 20 2026 - 12Z FRI OCT 23 2026
..SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
DAYS 2 & 3...
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC AND DIRECT IT NORTHWARD
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SIERRA
NEVADA ALSO RESIDE BENEATH A POTENT 120KT+ JET STREAK THAT WILL
PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE
TOPOGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED ASCENT THAT SUPPORTS UPSLOPE-ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LACK OF A SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR-MASS AND
THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP UPON APPROACH ON THURSDAY WILL CONFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO BE ABOVE 10,000FT, ALTHOUGH SOME 3-6"
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR AS LOW AS 9,000FT. THE PROBABILISTIC
PRECIPITATION PORTAL (PPP) DEPICTS MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES
(40-70%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >8" AND LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR
SNOWFALL >12" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10,000FT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WSSI-P DOES SHOW HIGH CHANCES (>70%) FOR MINOR IMPACTS (WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS, USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING) AND LOW-TO-MODERATE
CHANCES FOR MODERATE IMPACTS (HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, CLOSURES AND
DISRUPTIONS POSSIBLE) ABOVE 9,000FT. THE LOWER SLRS (TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 10-11:1) WILL MAKE FOR GENERALLY A HEAVY, WET SNOWFALL IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA.
MULLINAX
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