966
FOUS11 KWBC 290701
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 29 2026 - 12Z WED APR 01 2026
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-2...
A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WA/OR TODAY. DESPITE SOME INFUSION OF MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC
MOISTURE, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND REMAIN PROGRESSIVE,
LIMITING QPF AMOUNTS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500-4000FT IN THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING WILL LOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO
1500-3000FT. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PASSES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES ARE AT LEAST 50% ABOVE ABOUT
3000-3500FT OR SO FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FARTHER EAST, MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO WYOMING LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, ENDING FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST QUICKER THAN IT SINKS TO THE SOUTH. AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT NORTHWESTERN MONTANA MAY SEE
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AROUND GLACIER NP (50-80% CHANCE). IN
GENERAL, PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE AT LEAST
50% ABOVE ABOUT 5000FT IN ID/MT BUT ABOVE 9000-10,000FT IN WY. THE
ABSAROKAS IN SOUTHERN MT INTO NORTHWEST WY MAY ALSO SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO SOME LOCAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
FRONT END OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ICING (GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) OVER NORTHERN ND EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN MN
AND PERHAPS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AS THE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS/CORN BELT.
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 3...
THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY (ABOVE) WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN NY/VT/NH AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE AS
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
QUITE FAR TO THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY (WI OR INTO LOWER MI), COLD AIR
MAY HANG ON LONGER IN SHELTERED AREAS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO START BUT THEN MORE LIKELY A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HINTING AT AT LEAST NON-TRIVIAL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN (THOUGH
THE BETTER SIGNAL LIES ACROSS CANADA NEAR/NORTHEAST OF OTTAWA). FOR
NOW, KEPT AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TREND HIGHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.10" ICING ARE >30% OVER NORTHWESTERN
MAINE.
..SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CO ROCKIES
DAY 3...
COMBINATION OF THE TAIL-END OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES SYSTEM TODAY/MONDAY AND AN INCOMING WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODEST SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND CO ROCKIES AND DOTTED ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN BETWEEN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH -- 8000-9000FT --
WITH WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
40-80% ABOVE 9000-10,000FT.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THE CONUS FOR DAYS 1-3
IS LESS THAN 10%.
FRACASSO
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