365  
FOUS30 KWBC 190754  
QPFERD  
 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025  
 
DAY 1  
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2025 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2025  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH-  
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...  
 
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 4 TO 6+ INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY TODAY  
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS THUNDERSTORMS  
TRAIN AND BACKBUILD ALONG A SLOW MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREND OF THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BOTH IN THE MODEL RUNS AND THE  
DETERMINISTIC WPC QPF. ONCE AGAIN THE RISK AREAS WERE EXPANDED  
SOUTH AND WEST. THE MODERATE RISK SPANS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO  
THE MISSOURI OZARKS; WHICH HAD A MINOR REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OUT OF  
ILLINOIS GIVEN THE DECREASE IN QPF FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
TO OHIO. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS ALSO REDUCED OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS  
AND INDIANA WHILE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MARGINAL  
WAS TRIMMED SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND OHIO WHILE  
ADJUSTED WESTWARD OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 
ON THE NORTH SIDE THE COLD, DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE  
WEAKENING WHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR THERE WILL BE AN EVER INCREASING  
SUPPLY OF HOT AND HUMID AIR STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF BEING  
ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON UP TO 50 KT WINDS ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE  
FRONTAL INTERFACE FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI.  
AN UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS HOT, MOIST  
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS OVER OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY  
MORNING.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2025 - 12Z MON APR 21 2025  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO  
THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
SHOULD NOT RIVAL AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP RECENTLY FLOODED AREAS REMAINS A  
POTENTIAL CONCERN. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A BROAD FOOTPRINT  
OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUMS OF 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES  
ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.  
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAS THE GREATEST  
UNCERTAINTY.  
 
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
THESE AREAS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHERE STREAMFLOWS REMAIN HIGH AFTER  
RECENT FLOODING. HOWEVER, SOME RAIN ATOP RECENTLY FLOODED AREAS,  
AND RUNOFF FROM OTHER AREAS INTO THESE RIVERS, COULD EXACERBATE  
ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 
CAMPBELL/BANN  
 
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2025 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2025  
 
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS  
THAN 5 PERCENT.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT  
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