829
FOUS30 KWBC 271930
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z THU NOV 27 2025 - 12Z FRI NOV 28 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
AN INSTANCE OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER A FEW OUTFLOW-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS BELOW
500MB. 1.6 INCH PW VALUES AND 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS BOTH SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SPOTTY 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES TO
IMPACT URBAN AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND WEST PALM BEACH. THE ISOLATED
AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT PRECLUDES ANY INTRODUCTION OF
PROBABILITIES/RISK AREAS FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
COOK
DAY 2
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2025 - 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025 - 12Z SUN NOV 30 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
WE WERE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MARGINAL RISK WITH THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE
INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FLASH
FLOOD RISK. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN BOTH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
STILL SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE, SOME BRIEF TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LOCALLY PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP OVER 2-3"
AND RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE 12Z RRFS INDICATES
THIS POTENTIAL, PRODUCING LOCALIZED SWATHS OVER 3" SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE RRFS APPEARS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND THUS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS QPF MAX...THE IDEA OF
SOME BRIEF TRAINING RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL STILL
HOLDS. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MARGINAL RISK, BUT KEEP IT
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES IS GREATEST.
CHENARD
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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