445
FOUS30 KWBC 090800
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
DAY 1
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 09 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 10 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, WHERE A HIGHLY SENSITIVE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOLLOWING
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY.
SHORT-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RISK AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THESE CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE (PWS AT OR 1.75
INCHES) AND FAVORABLE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, INCLUDING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING WESTERN
TEXAS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD, REACHING THE TEXAS
COAST BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE. GIVEN THAT 3-HR FFGS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO ANTECEDENT SATURATION, ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
IS LIKELY TO POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE HREF SHOWS A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THESE
VULNERABLE AREAS TODAY.
FARTHER EAST, A MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. WHILE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRIER, DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS ALONG AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
PEREIRA
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 10 2026 - 12Z MON MAY 11 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE FORECAST REASONING AND OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BECOME A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR DEEPENING MOISTURE (PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL STRENGTHEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
BASE OF A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH, PLACING THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA
OF STRONG ASCENT, SUPPORTED BY COUPLED UPPER-JET FORCING. THIS
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY, WILL PROMOTE BROADENING STORM COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GAIN A MORE STEADY
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION, INITIAL STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SLOW MOVEMENT AND MERGERS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES, SUPPORT THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
PEREIRA
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON MAY 11 2026 - 12Z TUE MAY 12 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN FIVE PERCENT.
PEREIRA
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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