514
FOUS30 KWBC 280803
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
DAY 1
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2025 - 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
WEGMAN
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025 - 12Z SUN NOV 30 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM INHERITED.
WHILE PEAK MUCAPE VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON REACH UP TO AROUND 700
J/KG, THAT LEVEL OF INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY RARE. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT,
RESULTING IN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER A PORTION OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT
HAS BEEN VERY DRY LATELY. THE SOILS IN THIS PORTION OF EASTERN
TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA, THE MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE, THOUGH ANY FLASH
FLOODING WOULD REQUIRE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY SOILS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL HOLD THE
PEAK STORM STRENGTH BELOW ANYTHING CAPABLE OF ANY MORE THAN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOWER END MARGINAL
RISK GIVEN THOSE LIMITING FACTORS.
WEGMAN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 30 2025 - 12Z MON DEC 01 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
WEGMAN
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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