392
FOUS30 KWBC 151949
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SAT AUG 15 2026 - 12Z SUN AUG 16 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...
16Z UPDATE...
THE 12Z HREF AND REFS SUITES DID NOT PRESENT ANY REASON TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, THEREFORE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS ERO, INCLUDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING
REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT -- WITH FFG-
EXCEEDING RATES LIKELY OVER PARTS OF OH INTO WV AND BOTH ENSEMBLE
SUITES INDICATING AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN THE HIGH PLAINS, EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE,
WHERE SOILS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST IN SPOTS AND BOTH THE HREF AND
RRFS ARE SHOWING NOTABLE PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 3-HR FFGS THIS
EVENING.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OHIO VALLEY
A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO STRETCH FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IL THROUGH IN AND ACROSS MUCH OF OH. AN MCS IS FORECAST TO
BE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING TRACKING ACROSS IL AND IN. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD GENERALLY EXHIBIT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES, IT WILL BE TRAVERSING A CORRIDOR OF SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAIN EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE BY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, DRIVEN BY THE REMNANT MCV FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OH,
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WV AND FAR SOUTHWEST
PA BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY PWS AROUND 2.3" WILL SUPPORT INTENSE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES. A TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING SIGNATURE AGAIN
EXISTS, WITH DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS.
HREF NEIGHBORHOOD FFG EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 50-80%,
WITH HREF PMM QPF EXCEEDING FFG THRESHOLDS BY 200-300% IN SPOTS
AND OVERALL FFG EXCEEDANCE SPATIAL COVERAGE TOPPING 50%. THESE
IMPRESSIVE METRICS SUPPORT NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OH, WITH THE THREAT SPREADING
INTO WV AND SOUTHWEST PA BY EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE IN NATURE.
..HIGH PLAINS
A SLIGHT RISK IS MAINTAINED FROM EASTERN CO INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KS, REFLECTING A SOUTHWARD SHIFT RELATIVE TO CONTINUITY.
THE OVERALL SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS, WITH CONVECTIVE
FORCING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS, WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLING. CONVECTION INITIATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM CO INTO KS, AIDED BY
UPPER LEVEL JET RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN CO WHERE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LOWERED FFG THRESHOLDS.
..SOUTHEAST
A BROAD MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH PWS APPROACHING THE THE PERCENTILE
FOR MID AUGUST WILL BE PRESENT, AND HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES
SUPPORT LOCALIZED 3" RAINFALL TOTALS HOWEVER, OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH A MINIMAL HREF EAS SIGNAL.
WHILE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED FOCUS, ANY FLASH
FLOODING IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
CHENARD
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 16 2026 - 12Z MON AUG 17 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA...
20Z UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO DAY 1, THE HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLE SUITES DID NOT SHOW
REASON TO MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT ISSUANCE. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED A SMALL EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE RISK FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE UPSLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS, WHERE
ADDITIONAL QPF HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THIS FLOOD-VULNERABLE AREA.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS, THERE ARE
ENOUGH MEMBERS OF THE HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SHOWING REPEATING
STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RAISE PROBABILITIES
FOR AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES TO OVER 40 PERCENT WITHIN THE REGION.
BACK TO THE WEST, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN QPF THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK WAS
TRIMMED OUT OF PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WV.
PERSISTENT AND STRONG WESTERLY 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGING
INTO THE COMPLEX TERRAIN IS CONCERNING, FAVORING CONVECTIVE
TRAINING AND/OR REPEAT ACTIVITY. THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 2", SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH AN ACTIVE TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
THREAT. WHILE A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE MAY OCCUR AFTER THIS,
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY MAY LEAN MORE PROGRESSIVE THE HIGH PW AIRMASS COULD
EASILY YIELD A QUICK 1-3" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. GIVEN THAT SOIL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SATURATED BY THIS TIME,
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
AND NEAR THE TERRAIN OF WV. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS
EXIST, THE 00Z GEM REG, RRFS, REFS HIT THIS AREA WITH OVER 3" OF
RAIN.
A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS PA, MD, NJ, DE AND NORTHERN
VA. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/MCV, ALONGSIDE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT,
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. PWS
INCREASING TOWARDS 2.3" AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AN
MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT 12Z SUNDAY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS
IT OUTRUNS THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS, BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH THE CONVECTION ALONG, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS.
ANY TRAINING WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK, PARTICULARLY OVER
SENSITIVE URBAN CORRIDORS. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
TO ALIGN WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS, WITH THE 00Z RRFS AND REFS MATCHING
WELL WITH THE AIGFS/AIFS AXIS.
THE SLIGHT RISK WAS ALSO EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE EXCEEDING 3000
J/KG AND PWS NEAR OR JUST OVER 2". WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
MOVE MORE QUICKLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS MEAN EVEN PROGRESSIVE HEAVY RATES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS.
..SOUTHWEST
A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO,
FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE MAXIMIZED BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.
WHILE PW VALUES ARE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH, THEY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS AND CELL
MERGERS. GUIDANCE FROM THE AIGFS, RRFS, AND REFS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SPATIAL PLACEMENT.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON AUG 17 2026 - 12Z TUE AUG 18 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHWEST
AND UPPER MIDWEST ...
20Z UPDATE...
NO LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK, JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE APPALACHIANS
A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM KY
AND TN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN
UPSLOPE. A MARGINAL RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
..SOUTHWEST
A MARGINAL RISK ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF NM AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN CO. BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWS WILL INTERACT WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE WEAK FLOW. TERRAIN BASED
INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS LIKELY AS CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
..NE TO MN
A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHERN MN AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLANK OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...AND STORMS MAY PROVE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS...A MARGINAL RISK REFLECTS THE LOW END
RISK.
CHENARD
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 18 2026 - 12Z THU AUG 20 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY FOR
AREAS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
2030Z UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON TUESDAY WERE
PRETTY MODEST AND DRIVEN BY TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING
OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. BEYOND THAT...THE MARGINAL RISK AREAS ON
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO PRETTY MODEST AND DONE TO
PROVIDE MORE OVERLAP WITH QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS.
BANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..DAY 4/TUESDAY
MAIN THREAT FOR THE CONUS ON TUESDAY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THANKS TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TARGET ON
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CORN BELT AS OF THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC TRENDS. ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A FURTHER SOUTH FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AS THE ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AND ELEVATED THETA_E
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE A DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST NATIONAL
BLEND CAME IN FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL, ACTUALLY MATCHING MORE OF THE
ML ALGORITHMS IN THE EC-AIFS AND AI-GEFS ENSEMBLES MEANING THE
BLEND IS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS NORTHERN OUTPUT THAT PUT
THE QPF MAXIMA OVER MN. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MATERIALIZING
WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT MID-LEVEL EVOLUTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
SLATED TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR
THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES EAST- SOUTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THROUGH IOWA/SOUTHERN MN, ARCING UP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FORECAST LEADING TO A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
PROSPECTS, INCLUDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR >3" OF RAIN IN AREAS
HARDEST HIT. PQPF 90TH PERCENTILE REMAINS STEADY IN ITS
PRESENTATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS DEPICTING BETWEEN 2.5-3"
ACROSS IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WI WHERE THE CONSENSUS IS STRONGEST FOR
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR. ML GUIDANCE IS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS LOCATED IN THE SAME AREAS
ACROSS FROM IA TO WI WITH THE MAX LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IA AS THE
00Z ML SUITE.
CONSIDERING THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE FOR A FURTHER SOUTH
IMPACT IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS, THE SLGT RISK INHERITED WAS
SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF IA INTO WI. THE SHIFT
INTO IA IS NOTEWORTHY DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THAT WILL
LIKELY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS PERIODS OF RAINFALL THAT GENERATED WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. GENERAL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY OVERLAP OF THE SOME OF THE
MORE SENSITIVE AREAS IN IA AND WI COULD INTRODUCE SOME TARGETED
UPGRADES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SIGNAL LIKELY TO BEAR LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS COMPARED TO WHAT IS BEING FORECAST AT LEAD. FOR NOW,
MAINTAINED THE SLGT RISK, BUT ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST SHIFT IN
THE QPF MEAN FURTHER SOUTH.
..DAY 5/WEDNESDAY
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND A DEEP, AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL GENERATE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL ENTICE PERIODS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURES WITHIN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED DOMAINS. THE MOST
NOTABLE AREA OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIE WITHIN THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A COLD FRONT ADVANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
IT MIGRATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
CURRENT SIGNALS ARE NOT AS PROLIFIC AS THE PREVIOUS PERIODS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, HOWEVER THE ANTECEDENT SOILS WILL STILL LIKELY
BE IN RECOVERY OVER THE AREAS OF INTEREST FOR THE D5 LEADING TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION. MODELS REMAIN MIXED IN THEIR MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN SOME AREAL QPF MAXIMA IN
THE VICINITY OF BOTH THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH OH/KY INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF WV. THESE AREAS ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE SOILS ALLOWING FOR AT
LEAST A MRGL RISK TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FRONT RANGE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WARM, MOIST
AIR POLEWARD WITH LEE TROUGHING LIKELY TO BE SITUATED FROM CO DOWN
THROUGH NM AS IT MATERIALIZES WITHIN A MODEST THETA_E RIDGE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERRAIN WILL TRANSPIRE LEADING
TO AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY REMNANT BURN SCARS AND COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY
WITHIN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DOWN INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF NM. A MRGL RISK WAS ADDED OVER THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE THREAT.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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