593  
FOUS30 KWBC 060023  
QPFERD  
 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
723 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2023  
 
DAY 1  
VALID 16Z SUN FEB 05 2023 - 12Z MON FEB 06 2023  
 
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS  
THAN 5 PERCENT.  
 
HURLEY  
 
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z MON FEB 06 2023 - 12Z TUE FEB 07 2023  
 
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS  
THAN 5 PERCENT.  
 
BANN  
 
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 07 2023 - 12Z WED FEB 08 2023  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX REGION...  
 
POSITIVELY TITLED LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION TUESDAY BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT APPROACHES  
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE A DOWNSTREAM JET STREAK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 130 KT BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY  
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS  
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEM WILL BRING NORTHWARD HIGHER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5", WHICH IS BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (850 MB FLOW  
30-40 KTS) AND DEEP LAYER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERAL  
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO  
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE FAVORABLE  
OVERLAP OF GREATER LIFT, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 1000  
J/KG) SHOULD PRODUCE INTENSE RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 1-2"/HR AT TIMES  
AND A DEEP LAYER FLOW NEAR PARALLEL TO STORM MOTIONS COULD ALLOW  
FOR TRAINING/REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z RUNS OF  
THE ECENS AND GEFS MEMBERS STILL SHOW DECENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2"+  
TOTALS OVER THE PERIOD (WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 3-4 INCH  
AMOUNTS) ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST OF THEIR OVERNIGHT RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT RISK  
AREA WAS EXPANDED AND SHIFTED THAT WAY IN THIS CYCLE. DID NOT  
WANT TO REMOVE TOO MUCH FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PREVIOUS  
POSITION, THOUGH, DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN PARTS  
OF THE AREA DUE TO RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST NASA  
SPORT 0-40 CM LAYER SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE 90-95  
PERCENT IN PLACES AND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE 300-600 PERCENT  
OF NORMAL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED  
SOILS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.  
 
BANN  
 
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT  
 

 
 
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