635
FXCA20 KWBC 091708
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1207 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 DECEMBER 2025 AT 1730 UTC:
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO
THE YUCATAN, CAMPECHE AND TABASCO. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START LOSING ITS STRUCTURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT DEEP
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO, BELIZE, AND GUATEMALA, INCREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION, PARTICULARLY FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FAVORING ONSHORE MOISTURE ADVECTION. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL
ALSO HELP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA BY PROMOTING
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME
PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. HOWEVER, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND
ADVECT DRY AIR, PROMOTING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. AT UPPER LEVELS,
A STRONG JET OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS PROMOTING SPEED DIVERGENCE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAINTAINING THE
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE UPPER-
AND MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA, AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM FOR
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING, LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, BY INCREASING
ONSHORE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA.
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD EXPERIENCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION,PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS, DIURNAL
HEATING, MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS. OVER SOUTH
AMERICA, EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE NOCTURNAL
JET. AN AREA OF INTEREST IN SOUTH AMERICA IS THE WESTERN PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CAUSING RAINFALL EACH DAY. ANOTHER REGION
THAT COULD SEE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING MOISTURE IS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA AND
GUYANA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00
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