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FXCA20 KWBC 291936
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 JULY 2026 AT 1930 UTC:
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WITH 3-DAY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 50 - 100 MM
RANGE, IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA
INTO EASTERN PANAMA, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MEXICO. OTHER AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA COULD OBSERVE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL, BUT THE AREAS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN
COMPARISON.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO PUERTO RICO BY LATE THURSDAY, AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THE
MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A MORE SIMPLE PRESENTATION, WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF, WHILE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN REGION. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA, BOTH OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
FRIDAY.
AT THE LOW LEVELS, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME, AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON
FRIDAY, BUT STILL PRESENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL DOES NOT
PRESENT ANY MAJOR TROUGHINESS IN THE LOW LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, THE SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS CAUSING RELATIVELY DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN FOR THIS LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK. THAT BEING SAID, SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL HAVE MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MOISTURE, WITH AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL START
OBSERVING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
SOF INIT 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
15N 44W 47W 51W 54W 57W 59W 62W 66W 69W
17N 68W 71W 74W 78W 81W 85W 88W 92W 95W
18N 84W 88W 91W 94W 97W 99W 100W 103W 106W
11N 94W 97W 99W 102W 105W 108W 111W 113W 114W
15N 105W 107W 109W 112W 115W 116W 118W ---- ----
ALAMO...(WPC)
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