610
FXCA20 KWBC 141729
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 JULY 2026 AT 1730 UTC:
MEXICO...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE PRESENCE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RETROGRADING WIDE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. THE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL
STRENGTHEN TROUGHS IN THE UPPER LEVELS, FAVORING THE RETROGRADING
TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVES PROPAGATING IN THE REGION,
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO, FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
MEANING THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DRY
TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM COASTAL
SOUTHWEST MEXICO, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
HAS PROPAGATED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL COAST OF
MEXICO, FUELING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL ON TUESDAY. FAVORED BY THE DIVERGENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM, WHILE THE
REST OF THE ALTIPLANO AND SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL REGION CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CAN
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AS THE BASE OF TUTT IS
RETROGRADING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON WEDNESDAY, REMNANTS OF
THE MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
REGION, WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER WIDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS-UNITED
STATES OVER THE LATE NIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY MORNING OF
THURSDAY. ENHANCED DIVERGENCE IN NORTHERN MEXICO CAN FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DECREASED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM, WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. TO THE SOUTH, A TROPICAL
WAVE PROPAGATES OVER OAXACA AND GUERRERO, FAVORING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE IT WILL
FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN. BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EXTEND INTO
SOUTHWEST MEXICO BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
REORGANIZED OVER TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, EXTENDING
DIVERGENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. EXPECT
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN SONORA-MEXICO AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED IN SOUTH MEXICO, WHERE SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN OAXACA CAN EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ON THURSDAY. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, FAVORING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHIAPAS.
CENTRAL AMERICA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH
RIDGING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND FROM HONDURAS THROUGH
COSTA RICA. THIS IS ALSO THE REGION THAT A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PROPAGATING OVER, FAVORING ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ON TUESDAY. IN
THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE REGION, A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES OVER
THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC BY THE
EVENING HOURS, FAVORING GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM BELIZE
THROUGH EL SALVADOR ON TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE THE PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE PRESENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (CLLJ) FAVORS THE FAST
PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL WAVES IN THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INT GUATEMALA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WHILE A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND INTO CENTRAL PANAMA. IN ADDITION, THE CLLJ IS
AMPLIFYING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, WHERE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO REACH
30-60MM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY.
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FROM EL SALVADOR AND INTO PANAMA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS. BY THURSDAY, ONLY ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, OVER BELIZE AND EL SALVADOR BY THE EVENING
HOURS. BY THURSDAY, THE WIDE UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS BASE OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, WHILE THE DIVERGENCE FROM THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS AMPLIFIED FROM
NICARAGUA THROUGH PANAMA. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
GUATEMALAN ALTIPLANO THROUGH THE PACIFIC COAST REGIONS OF
GUATEMALA, AS WELL AS IN EASTERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWEST PANAMA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER NICARAGUA
AND CENTRAL PANAMA.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE A GENERALIZED DRY TREND
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO ENTER
THE REGION AND LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC PROPAGATE ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTOR DUE TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE ANDES FOOTHILL.
THE PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GUIANAS AND INTO VENEZUELA, HOWEVER,
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL INHIBIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. EXPECT MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA, COLOMBIA, AND ECUADOR FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY, A TROPICAL WAVE FAVORS MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN WEST VENEZUELA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY PROPAGATES INTO
CENTRAL PANAMA, ENHANCING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA, AND FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON THURSDAY,
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR, WHILE TO THE EAST TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL HAVE TROUBLE
PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT TRACE TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM EAST VENEZUELA AND INTO THE
GUIANAS ON THURSDAY.
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER. OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL WAVES IS EXPECTED, THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVOR STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL INVERSION LAYERS. TRACE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED DAILY.
TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
17N 33W 36W 39W 43W 47W 52W 57W 62W 68W
18N 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 67W 72W
16N 71W 74W 77W 81W 85W 88W 91W 94W 97W
20N 79W 83W 86W 90W 93W 96W 100W ABS ---
18N 89W 92W 95W 98W 100W 102W 104W 106W 107W
22N 107W 110W 113W 115W 117W EXITS --- --- ---
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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