585
FXCA20 KWBC 251607
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1605 UTC:
NOTE: DUE TO OBSERVANCE OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, THERE WILL BE
NO PRODUCTION OF TROPICAL DISCUSSIONS FROM WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER
26TH, TO MONDAY, DECEMBER 1ST.
MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, THE BAHAMAS, AND THE CARIBBEAN:
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO MEXICO,
GUATEMALA, AND BELIZE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PROPAGATING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS IN THE UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AT
THIS TIME, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO, THE CENTRAL GULF, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. AT THIS POINT, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE REDIRECTED TO A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE EAST COAST OF
MEXICO, PARTICULARLY VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS. THIS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS
REGION, AND GIVEN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN, HIGH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT AROUND 30-70MM FOR THIS AREA ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE ON THURSDAY, BEFORE STALLING ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY IN VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS,
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA, AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A SHEAR LINE WILL DEVELOP AND CHANGE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME. WITH MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE EAST COAST OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND NORTHERN CUBA EARLY ON FRIDAY. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW -9ĀC, WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST BEGINNING TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING IN PERSISTENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING IN ON
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF AROUND 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED FOR
THIS AREA ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM THE EAST AND WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR LOCALIZED AND DAILY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA, INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND THE GUIANAS. IN
THE WEST, A LONG FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM
THE WEST ONSHORE INTO THE COAST OF WEST COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY, WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED ONSHORE FLOW ARE
PRESENT, AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A MORE ORGANIZED WESTERLY FLOW
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTH IN ECUADOR AND
NORTHERN PERU, EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE AMAZON WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONVERGE AND BE OROGRAPHIC LIFTED BY THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE, LOCALIZED, AND
DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00
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