042
FXCA20 KWBC 081826
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 8 MAY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS RIDGING AT
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS DOMINATES THE REGION. LIMITED PRECIPITABLE
WATER AVAILABILITY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE LOWER END. DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, AND THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING, LOCAL EFFECTS, AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15MM.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MEXICO, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER VERACRUZ DUE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-30MM.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, INCLUDING COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES GENERATING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN MEXICO,
PARTICULARLY OVER SAN LUIS POTOSI AND VERACRUZ, WITH A TROUGH
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AT MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 20-40MM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA, MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN DAILY RAINFALL. OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, DAILY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS; HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE
TO RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE ITCZ OVER NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND PORTIONS OF THE
GUIANAS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE REGION, SEASONABLE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, MOISTURE
ADVECTION, AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGENCE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GUIANAS AND
EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH TOTALS
BETWEEN 25-50MM. OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON REGION IN PERU AND
ECUADOR, AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-40MM.
A MORE ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN,PARTICULARLY IMPACTING PERU AND COLOMBIA.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
AMERICA, AND THE ADVECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS, PARTICULARLY OVER PERU, AND AN INCREASE IN
THE DIFFLUENCE OF WINDS AT UPPER-LEVELS ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TOTALS REACHING 35-70MM IN AREAS OF PERU, WITH POSSIBLY
HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE GUIANAS, WITH A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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