389
FXCA20 KWBC 041911
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 4 AUGUST 2026 AT 1910 UTC:
(CORRECTION)
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC COAST AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA, WITH DAILY MAXIMA OF 25 - 50 MM.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA,
MEXICO, AND GUATEMALA, WITH DAILY MAXIMA RANGING BETWEEN 20 - 45
MM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, TWO LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ASCENT. ANOTHER LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA, WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS THE
WESTERN LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, REDUCING ITS INFLUENCE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FAVORING DYNAMICAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA. IN THE MID-LEVELS, A
WELL-DEFINED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW-PRESSURE ANOMALY. A NOTICEABLE
LOW-PRESSURE ANOMALY ALSO PERSISTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN,
PARTICULARLY OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
HIGH-PRESSURE ANOMALIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION, DRIVEN BY
STRENGTHENING CENTERS OVER BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG MEXICO'S WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS, DRIVEN BY
HUMIDITY ADVECTION. PWAT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN MODEST, EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL, WHERE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NONETHELESS, THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE FLUX WILL SUPPORT
RAINFALL OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WHILE
A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST LIMITS PRECIPITATION OVER JAMAICA,
HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, REGIONAL DYNAMICS, AND A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT DAILY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT WESTWARD FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA AND
EASTERN NICARAGUA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES. ELSEWHERE IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE
ORINOQUIA AND NORTHWEST AMAZON REGIONS.
TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYP SOF INIT 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12
TW 14N 21W 24W 27W 30W 34W 38W 42W 46W 51W
TW 24N 37W 40W 43W 46W 49W 52W 56W 60W 64W
EW 13N 42W 46W 50W 53W 57W 61W 65W 69W 72W
TW 26N 56W 60W 64W 68W 73W 77W 80W 83W 85W
TW 18N 74W 77W 80W 83W 86W 88W 90W 92W 96W
TW 20N 98W 101W 105W 108W 111W 115W EXIT ---
SANCHEZ-PEREZ...(WPC)
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