070
FXCA20 KWBC 221915
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 JULY 2025 AT 1525 UTC:
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...
A POTENT TROPICAL WAVE, THAT CURRENTLY HAS AN AXIS AT 53.4W, WILL
DRIVE THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
GUADELOUPE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTING TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM IS POSSIBLE FROM
GUADELOUPE TO GRENADA. NOTE, DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY HELP PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE ISLANDS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE ECWMF AND GFS BEING IN GREATER ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS. THOUGH THE MID-LEVELS ARE
FAVORING SPEED DIVERGENCE, THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF SHEAR NORTH OF
DOMINICA. THUS, WE ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO OCCUR ACROSS
DOMINICA, MARTINIQUE, SAINT LUCIA, SAINT VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES, AND BARBADOS. A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 -
40MM IS EXPECTED, THOUGH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
THEREAFTER, THE TROPICAL WAVE'S SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS VENEZUELA STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL BE IN WEST VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA, YIELDING TO A
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND WILL YIELD TO TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM.
THE PRESENCE OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
NOTE:
THE LOW-LEVEL ANALYSIS CHARTS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED
REGULARLY.
THE FORECAST BULLETINS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED INTERMITTENTLY.
FOR THE LATEST AVAILABLE CHARTS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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