760  
FXCA20 KWBC 241714  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
114 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1710 UTC:  
 
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE, EXPECT TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO BE  
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.  
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, PLEASE  
REFER TO  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?START#CONTENTS.  
 
THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS EXPECTED  
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI AND  
JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL STORM, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N, 74.6N,  
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING, AND THEN START TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE  
TRACK OF THE STORM, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIPITATION  
FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM  
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA THROUGHOUT  
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW TRANSLATION SPEED, WHICH WILL  
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY  
OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AS EXTERNAL  
RAINBANDS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. OROGRAPHIC  
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE AREA.  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN  
THAT AREA, AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING  
DEEP MOISTURE ONSHORE. A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED  
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
TO FAVOR SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. OVER SOUTHERN HAITI,  
PARTICULARLY OVER THE TIBURON PENINSULA, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY DECREASE FROM SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION, BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN  
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. JAMAICA IS  
EXPECTED TO START RECEIVING SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING OF THE STORM  
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE UPSHEAR REGION, OR  
WEST OF THE CENTER, ONCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO  
DECREASE. WITH THE TROPICAL STORM STARTING TO MOVE WESTWARD  
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FORECAST  
PERIOD FOR THESE THREE REGIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA, SOME  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS HIGH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AVAILABLE IN THE AREA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER  
TROUGH NOW MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING. A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL BE  
ATTRIBUTED TO EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM MELISSA.  
 
SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER PUERTO RICO EACH DAY, WITH  
SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP MOISTURE FLOW GOING INTO THE REGION. FURTHER  
ENHANCEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO DIURNAL  
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE LESSER  
ANTILLES, AND A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
AREA, WHICH COULD SUPPRESS SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY, BUT EASTERLY  
FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RAINFALL.  
 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:  
 
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MEXICO AND PARTS OF  
CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING GUATEMALA, BELIZE AND EL SALVADOR,  
OVER THE NEXT THREE. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ARE THE  
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS  
AS MORE ZONAL WINDS AND RIDGING PREVAILS IN THE AREA. SOME  
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND  
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY.  
 
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE  
TO THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE  
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA, AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST  
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MONSOON  
TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL STORM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO KEEP A BROAD  
AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING  
STRONGER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PRECIPITATION WILL  
LIKELY INCREASE AND BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY.  
 
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:  
 
IN SOUTH AMERICA, A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, ENHANCED  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THE DIURNAL CYCLE,AND LOCAL  
EFFECTS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD  
IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, AS  
LONG-FETCH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY PARTICULARLY OVER  
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WINDS  
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TROPICAL STORM MELISSA INTENSIFYING  
IN THE CARIBBEAN, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING IN THE AREA.  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION OF  
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA EACH DAY WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MOSTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS  
LIMITED.  
 
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC  
TYP SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00  
---  
 
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