056
FXCA20 KWBC 051817
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 5 AUGUST 2026 AT 1820 UTC:
NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGHER AND WIDER REGIONS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND ORINOQUIA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
AT UPPER LEVELS, A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS AND EMBEDDED TROUGHS WILL
PROMOTE BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, WHILE A TROUGH
ANCHORS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE UPSTREAM
SIDE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION OVER
CENTRAL NORTHERN AREAS OF MEXICO THAT WILL DISPLACE WESTWARD
THOUGH THE DAY. OVER THE MID SOUTHERN MEXICO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUSTAINS UPWARD MOTIONS FROM THE WESTERN TO EASTERN MEXICAN REGION
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN. A WIDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED OVER GREATER ANTILLES AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGHS EXTEND
NORTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
A RIDGE IS EXTENDED OVER LESSER ANTILLES LIMITING CONVECTION. OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL DIG IN NORTH
AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO BECOME
ENCLOSED BY FRIDAY, PUSHING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN REGION. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD DECREASING THE ALOFT DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT OVER THE REGION. THE SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION WILL
MOVE WESTWARD AND ITâ€S EXPECTED TO LAST ALONG THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL FOLLOW IT TO
ALLOW THE ENTRANCE OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.
AT MID LEVELS, FOUR MAIN TROUGHS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
ONE EXTENDS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, A SECOND
ONE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC, ONE IS EXTENDED OVER PANAMA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND ONE OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN US. MID LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, WHILE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA TO EASTERN PANAMA. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS THESE
TROUGHS WILL REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DISPLACING THE
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED TO THE WEST OF EACH AREA OF
INFLUENCE. THE ONE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE THE SLOWEST
MOVEMENT, AND WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
AT LOWER LEVELS, SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE PRESENT MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICAN COAST, ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO
COLOMBIA REGIONS AND FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS REGION.
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA TO
AREAS OF COLOMBIA. AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND,
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WILL BE
AFFECTED BY LOCALLY CONVECTIVE RAIN. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BESIDES THE SHIFT TO THE WEST
OF THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND LESS RAINY CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, THE
ORINOQUIA REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY ADVECTION IN
INTERACTION WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE REGION.
TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYP SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00
09/12
TW 14N 27W 30W 34W 39W 44W 48W 52W 55W 58W
TW 21N 43W 46W 50W 54W 57W 61W 64W 67W 71W
EW 13N 49W 53W 57W 61W 65W 69W 72W 75W 78W
TW 14N 79W 81W 83W 85W 87W 89W 91W 94W 97W
TW 13N 106W 109W 112W 115W 117W EXIT - - -
SANCHEZ-PEREZ...(WPC)
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