951
FXCA20 KWBC 141819
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1815 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
PRECIPITATION IN BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN, SOUTHERN CUBA, AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS, WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. A MODEST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MOISTURE, AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL AID IN
INCREASED PRECIPITATION TOTALS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS UP
TO 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA TODAY. ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL DISSIPATE, AND WITH A LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS, ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT AND LOCALIZED SHOWERS.
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE MID
LEVELS, WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
BEGIN DEEPENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS TROUGH
WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED AHEAD BY ANOTHER INCOMING TROUGH, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WITH AMPLE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM OF 20-45MM ON
SATURDAY.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, AS THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
MOVES MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL OCCUR ON THE ATLANTIC COASTS, GIVEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ONSHORE, WHICH WILL THEN
BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND PROMOTE
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTS, BRINGING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. WITH A LACK OF A COHERENT STRUCTURE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ON MONDAY, MOST HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED
AND IN REGIONS OF HIGHER ELEVATION.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
THE AFOREMENTIONED PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES IN TO TAKE ITS PLACE. FROM
TODAY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS, AS EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
ISLANDS. AFTER SATURDAY MORNING, THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST CUBA AND PARTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A MAXIMUM
OF 15-30MM EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AFTER SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER DUE TO A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ENTERING, IN WHICH AFTER ITS DEPARTURE, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL AND UNCONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION. ANY PRECIPITATION
THEREAFTER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED SHOWERS IN MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
IN NORTHWEST BRAZIL, NORTHEAST PERU, AND EAST ECUADOR, THE
PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A MOIST PLUME
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND LOCAL EFFECTS,
STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA, A MODEST WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 60MM WILL SUPPORT DAILY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON SUNDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DISSIPATE ALONG WITH THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE, THUS, DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, PRECIPITATION WILL BE CAUSED MOSTLY BY
LOCAL, DIURNAL, AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, WITH DAILY CONVECTION
EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LATE INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL INTRUDE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL BRAZIL AND THE GUIANAS, AND CALMER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00
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