485
FXCA20 KWBC 121901
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 JUNE 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ALSO AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE NHC INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, POTENTIALLY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF MEXICO, THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL, AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO
GUATEMALA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, FROM NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD
INTO PANAMA, AS WELL AS WESTERN COLOMBIA, MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
COASTLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER WEST, A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AS
THIS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL, PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WAVES MAY
ENHANCE RAINFALL LOCALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AND REGIONAL TOPOGRAPHY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA, ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 50 MM AS THESE WAVES MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS, THE RAINFALL PATTERN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY
QUIET. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE,
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WHERE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED AREAS MAY STILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOCAL
TERRAIN AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONDITIONS ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
TROPICAL WAVES:
SOF INIT 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12
10N 38W 41W 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W
20N 47W 50W 54W 58W 61W 66W 70W 73W 77W
9N 58W 61W 65W 68W 70W 72W 74W 77W 79W
12N 67W 70W 74W 76W 80W 83W 87W DISS ---
10N 76W 78W 79W 80W 81W 84W 88W 91W LOW
ALAMO...(WPC)
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