176
FXCA20 KWBC 091926
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 JUNE 2026 AT 1920 UTC:
MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ ON TUESDAY, EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO, NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE
EVENING HOURS, AS IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD. TO THE WEST, THE RIDGE
MEETS WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, FAVORING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
REFLECT IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSIDENCE IN THE
REGION. TO THE SOUTH, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS
FOLLOWING TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. NHC
ESTIMATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
GUERRERO AND OAXACA EARLY TUESDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TO DISSIPATE. IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL, EXPECT BORIS TO IMPACT THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GUERRERO
AND OAXACA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL MAXIMA REACHING 50-100MM,
LOCALLY. THE REST OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST REGIONS OF MEXICO
WILL SEE THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE ALOFT, SEEING A DRYING TREND
STARTING ON TUESDAY. OVER GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS, EXPECT
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN TO UNDERGO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS, WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
TOTALS ON TUESDAY. IN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN NICARAGUA, THE
SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM NHC IS WATCHING IS TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA,
WHO REMAINS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC, WEST OF THE GOLFO DE FONSECA
REGION AS OF TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES
MOVING CLOSER TO LAND, EXPECT WEST NICARAGUA TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ON TUESDAY, WITH EL SALVADOR EXPECTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF BORIS CONTINUE INLAND TOWARDS THE
EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL, WHERE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF MEXICO, WHILE MOISTURE ALSO ENTERS FROM THE WEST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, THE UPPER RIDGE IS REFLECTING IN THE
MID-LEVELS, INHIBITING CONVECTION TO DEEPEN AND FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FAVORING THE MOIST ONSHORE THAT WILL SEE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO
REGIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION. NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS INTERACTING WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN, ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AND PORTIONS OF THE GOLFO DE FONSECA TO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE NORTH, A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, FAVORING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST.
BY THURSDAY, AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ENTERING TROPICAL WAVE AND
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF TROUGHING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS, COULD SEE ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, THROUGH GUATEMALA AND PORTIONS OF WEST HONDURAS
AND EL SALVADOR.
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA,
WHERE IT EXTENDS INTO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO/VI AND INTO THE
ABC ISLANDS AND NORTH OF VENEZUELA, AND WITH IT, TRADE WIND
INVERSIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
A MORE POTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES, FAVORING THE ENTRY OF DRY AIR AND
TRADE WIND INVERSIONS THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL FAVOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE ISLANDS. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES AND MUCH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TRACE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THE PRESENCE OF MOIST PLUMES EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WINDS. TO THE EAST, THE LESSER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS
THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA
THE REGION CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS FAVORING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION. TO THE EAST, A TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT
AND FAVORS MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE GUIANAS AND THE
EASTERN AMAZON BASIN. SIMILARLY, TO THE WEST, A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR SIMILAR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY WEST, ENTERING GUYANA, AND
FUELING DEEP CONVECTION OVER RORAIMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA AND GUYANA. THE DRYNESS THAT WAS PRESENT OVER VENEZUELA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD, FAVORING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM
WEST VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER COLOMBIA ON
TUESDAY IS NOW EXPECTED OVER PANAMA, WHERE MODERATE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS NOW EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
TO REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER. OVER COLOMBIA, EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ADVECTING DRY AIR FROM THE
EAST.
TROPICAL WAVES:
SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12
11N 44W 49W 52W 55W 59W 63W 66W 69W 72W
13N 55W 58W 61W 64W 67W 70W 72W 75W 78W
8N 34W 38W 43W 48W 51W 54W 57W 61W 64W
20N 78W 82W 84W 86W 88W 90W 93W 95W 97W
CASTELLANOS (WPC)
ALAMO...(WPC)
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