998
FXCA20 KWBC 141558
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 OCTOBER 2026 AT 1555 UTC:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OF INTEREST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS HURRICANE SIMON, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO. THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MOIST, WHERE DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS SINALOA AND NAYARIT FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SUR BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THAT REGION ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FAVOR
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF UP TO 30MM ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL STORM TRUDY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OCEAN UNTIL THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE
FACT, RAIN BANDS WILL START EXTENDING INTO THE CONTINENT STARTING
ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS GUERRERO AND
INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE THEREAFTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THE AREA OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL
STORM TRUDY WILL TRANSPORT MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC THAT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH GUERRERO COAST AND OAXACA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
ITS AXIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA, CUBA, JAMAICA, AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE DAY TODAY, HELPING SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.
STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE MOVING OVER HONDURAS, BELIZE, AND THE EAST YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COUPLE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW PATTERN, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF BELIZE/YUCATAN PENINSULA, THAT WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTHWEST CUBA
FOR THURSDAY. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD, LEADING TO THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IN THE
REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST CUBA ON FRIDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MEXICO, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXTENDING INTO NORTH MEXICO STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS
COAHUILA AND NORTHEAST CHIHUAHUA FOR THURSDAY. THIS REGION WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS POTENT SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WILL ARRIVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVES, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT THE ENHANCEMENT IN
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AS
WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ACROSS TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, DAILY MOISTURE PLUMES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EAST GREATER ANTILLES. EXPECT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE WEAK MOISTURE PLUMES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
EAST OF THE ANDES, THERE WILL BE ONGOING EASTERLY LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
WINDS THAT WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE ANDES AND TO THE EAST. DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST,
ONGOING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE CONVERGING INTO COLOMBIA
AND NORTH ECUADOR, YIELDING MODERATE TO ELEVATED TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA, EXPECT
THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF SOUTH
NICARAGUA/NORTH COSTA RICA WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THAT WILL REINFORCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYP SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
TW 13N 31W 33W 36W 38W 40W 42W 44W 46W 48W
TW 17N 55W 57W 59W 61W 63W 65W 67W 69W 71W
TW 19N 78W 79W 82W 85W 87W 88W 89W 90W 91W
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
SANCHEZ-PEREZ...(WPC)
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