069
FXCA20 KWBC 201949
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 20 DEC 2024 AT 20 UTC
A SERIES OF EXITING COLD FRONTS INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN WILL
INFLUENCE THE WIND REGIME IN THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
STARTING TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE FAR NORTHWEST REGION OF THE BAHAMAS
AND EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXPECTED TO
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS THESE COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO
THE OPEN WATERS ... THE WIND REGIME IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AN AREA OF INTEREST IS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ... THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE DAYS ... THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
TODAY ... TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY. AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE ... COOLER MID LEVELS ... AND LOCAL OROGRAPHY WILL FAVOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION. THE HEAVIEST MAXIMUM
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ... EXPECTED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN HONDURAS AND BELIZE.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY ... WITH
THE HEAVIEST MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION TOTALS BEING OBSERVED SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH TOTALS OF 25 - 50MM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DISRUPT THE ZONAL-LIKE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ... LESSENING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ... AND IN TURN SEEING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ... THE INFLUENCE FROM THE PANAMIAN LOW
... PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION THROUGH THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GREATER AGREEMENT REGARDING MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE REGION.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA ... A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN COLOMBIA ... PERU ... AND NORTHWEST BRAZIL
... WILL CONTINUE ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR CONVECTION IN
THIS REGION THROUGH THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ACROSS THE
GUIANAS ... EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS IN THIS REGION ... WITH DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED.
TINOCO...(WPC)
ALAMO...(WPC)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
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