061
FXCA20 KWBC 091844
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 JANUARY 2026 AT 1845 UTC:
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES OF
MEXICO STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY EVENING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY SUNDAY
EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE ENTIRE
REGION. MOISTURE POOLING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE THE TEHUANTEPECER
LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ), AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS LLJ WILL REINFORCE
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ACROSS TABASCO, VERACRUZ, AND OAXACA.
THESE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY, LOCAL EFFECTS, AND
THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS. TOTALS MAY REACH 150MM AND EVEN HIGHER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL VERACRUZ, THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS REGION WILL BE MORE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE SURFACE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THIS WILL YIELD A
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN OFF-SHORE. MEANWHILE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO, THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
COUNTRY WHICH MAY YIELD TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS FOR
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS COAHUILA, NUEVO LEON, SAN LUIS
POTOSI, AND ZACATECAS. EXPECT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 -
30 FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING AT
THE SAME TIME IN THE REGION AND THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS LOW LEVEL
WIND REGIME WILL INCREASE THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AND THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MONDAY AND AFTER.
MEANWHILE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA, A SERIES
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AND LOCAL EFFECTS. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THUS, EXPECT A
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN BELIZE, NORTHEAST GUATEMALA, AND NORTHERN HONDURAS FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND
INSTABILITY. ON FRIDAY, THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA,
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY. THEREAFTER, LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND SO WILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO HELP SUSTAIN
DEEP CONVECTION. THUS, EXPECT INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA IS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE MOST INTENSE DAILY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE GUIANAS AND AMAZON
DELTA, THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE THE INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN, EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 35MM WILL BE MOVING INTO HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL HELP REINFORCE THE DEVELOPMENT
FOR SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM IS LIKELY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY AND WILL YIELD A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF
15 - 25MM. OTHERWISE, SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE BASIN WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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