994
FXCA20 KWBC 061841
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 JULY 2026 AT 1840 UTC:
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MUCH OF THE TROPICAL REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE RAINFALL AS SAHARAN DUST SUPPRESSES
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN, DESPITE
NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. A FEW TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH LOCAL TERRAIN AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS.
CURRENTLY, THE MOST PERSISTENT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS OVER NORTH TO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA, CENTRAL TO WESTERN MEXICO, AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, WHERE ISOLATED AREAS COULD OBSERVE
BETWEEN 50 AND 150 MM. NOTABLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA, SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND
CAICOS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT UPPER LEVELS, SEVERAL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGHS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. MOST NOTABLY, A TUTT
MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA, THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE GULF COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS. THIS WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
COMBINED ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE MID-LEVELS, PATTERNS AND HEIGHTS APPEAR LESS DEFINED. THE
MID-LEVEL LOWS ARE NOTABLY WEAKER, AND THE LOW OVER MEXICO IS
DEPICTED MORE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAN A CLOSED LOW. REGARDLESS,
THESE MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
HAS ALSO WEAKENED, IT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND EVEN SMALL HAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOW LEVELS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE GULF. WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
TROUGH WEST OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE TROUGH WEST OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, PROVIDING PERSISTENT FUEL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS, DIURNAL HEATING, AND MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS.
TROPICAL WAVES:
SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
16N 35W 41W 46W 51W 57W 62W 66W 71W 75W
15N 52W 57W 62W 65W 69W 71W 74W 78W 80W
17N 88W 90W 91W 92W 93W 94W 95W 96W ----
ALAMO...(WPC)
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