915
FXCA20 KWBC 161902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 JANUARY 2026 AT 1905 UTC:
FOR FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE TROPICAL REGION IS SEEING THE
PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS, AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE POLAR TROUGH HAS ITS BASE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AND JUST NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION, WHERE IT
ENCOUNTERS RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN CENTRAL AMERICA, A
WEAK JET STREAM IS PRESENT, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTER WAVE TROUGH, WHERE ITS DIVERGENT SIDE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VENTILATION OF CONVECTION IN THE
REGION, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER WATER
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS IN NORTH
HONDURAS, JAMAICA, AND FROM EAST COSTA RICA AND NORTH PANAMA, WITH
THE PRESENCE OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COASTAL REGIONS. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY, A NEW SETUP UNFOLDS DUE TO A NEW ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
AIR FROM THE NORTH, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THAT ENTERS NORTHEAST MEXICO BY SATURDAY
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OF THE JET STREAM
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE CARIBBEAN, ENHANCED RIDGING IN
RESPONSE IS EXPECTED, IN ADDITION TO A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHERMORE, THE CARIBBEAN
LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCED OVER THE REGION, FAVORING THE ADVECTION
OF MOIST PLUMES OVER THE REGION, IN ADDITION TO A TROUGH WITH
ABOVE NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRAVELING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH LONG FETCH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EXTENDING FROM EAST HONDURAS THROUGH PANAMA,
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM, WHILE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
PRESENT FROM JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE BAHAMAS. ON SUNDAY,
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION.
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTH CARIBBEAN AND MEXICO,
THE MOIST TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, ATTRIBUTING MOIST CONDITIONS FOR
LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW INTO NORTH HONDURAS. THIS LOW LEVEL
INTERACTION WILL LATER DEVELOP INTO A SHEAR LINE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS THAT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IS FORECAST FOR NORTH HONDURAS, BUT
POTENTIALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD, AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH, THESE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION. WE
ARE MONITORING THE CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENT. AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON SUNDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN MEXICO DUE TO PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS ENTERING THE REGION. LONG FETCH MOIST FLOW FROM
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA INTO NORTH PANAMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, DEEP CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE
REGION. AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER SOUTH AMERICA,
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION ALOFT
FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN THE REGION. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH AMERICA, THE DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE REGION, AND
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. ON
SATURDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN,
WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE GUIANAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO FORM OVER
NORTH COLOMBIA, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN, THAT WILL DIG INTO THE GUIANAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. ON
SUNDAY, THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION, INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
CONTINENT, CONTINUING TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM OR MOST OF THE REGION. OVER THE EAST GUIANAS AND INTO THE
EASTERN AMAZON BASIN, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM
20-35MM.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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