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FXCA20 KWBC 051928
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 JUNE 2026 AT 1930 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
INCREASED CYCLONIC ROTATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS FAVORED THE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS FOLLOWING
TWO REGIONS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT
ARE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF PRODUCING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC
ROTATION ENTERING THE REGION FROM TROPICAL WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE
ROTATION ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO, FAVORING
THE MOISTURE TO ENTER INLAND, AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. ON
FRIDAY, A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH FAVORS ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM CHIAPAS
THROUGH THE WESTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, FAVORING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM CHIAPAS THROUGH WEST
NICARAGUA. ON SATURDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ABSORBED INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS WEST PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA, FAVORING WESTERLY WINDS TO ENTER THE TWO COUNTRIES
AND FAVOR INCREASED HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF MEXICO THROUGH GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR, AND
NICARAGUA. IN EAST AND CENTRAL MEXICO, INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE EASTERN COASTS OF
VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS, REACHING THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL,
AND FAVORING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS
DIVERGENCE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WEST MEXICO AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
CARIBBEAN. BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGING RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN MEXICO,
WEAKENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST MEXICO. THE ROTATION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES OFFSHORE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION TO CONTINUE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
REGION AND FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE COUNTRIES.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA
THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE
PRODUCERS OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT THREE FORECAST DAYS. IN
ADDITION, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT A GENERALIZED
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA IS FAVORING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AS THE PERIPHERY INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEMS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE DIFFLUENCE THAT IS
GENERATED BY THESE INTERACTIONS WILL ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ON FRIDAY, THE ENHANCED
ROTATION SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS FAVORING DEEP MOISTURE
ONSHORE FLOW INTO WEST COLOMBIA, THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS, INCREASING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY, EXCEEDING
50MM LOCALLY ON FRIDAY, AROUND 70MM ON SATURDAY, AND AROUND 80MM
ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY, OVER THE GUIANAS THE ITCZ AND MOISTURE
ENTERING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS, FAVORING MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS ON FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO MODERATE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH SOUTH AMERICA, THE CONDITIONS REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TROUGHING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE WAVES PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AMAZON BASIN.
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THE ENHANCED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE EXTREME WEST CARIBBEAN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO SPEED UP AND FAVOR A
DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO A TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
UPPER TROUGH (TUTT). THAT CAN ENHANCE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. BY
SUNDAY, THE TUTT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO REACT TO THE LOW PRESSURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12
TW 10N 24W 26W 28W 31W 35W 39W 43W 47W 52W
TW 10N 46W 49W 53W 56W 61W 65W 68W 71W 73W
TW 16N 56W 60W 63W 67W 70W 73W 76W 79W 81W
TW 15N 70W 72W 74W 76W 77W 79W 80W 82W 84W
TW 17N 78W 79W 80W 81W 83W 86W 89W ABSORBED
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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