540
FXCA20 KWBC 021721
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 JULY 2026 AT 1720 UTC:
NOTE: DUE TO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY, THERE WILL NOT BE
ANOTHER DISCUSSION UNTIL MONDAY JULY 06.
(CORRECTION)
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF MEXICO, SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA, AND THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THESE REGIONS, 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH
100-150 MM, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY
LOCALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA, WHERE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST
WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON (THURSDAY) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES OVER
MEXICO, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INLAND.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERS SOMEWHAT, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY.
AT LOW LEVELS, A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN, RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, ENHANCING THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE ALSO
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO,
ALLOWING THE PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC LOW-LEVEL JETS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED.
SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA, PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA,
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROPICAL WAVES WILL ALSO
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT. IN CONTRAST, DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
BRAZIL.
TROPICAL WAVES:
SOF INIT 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12
17N 51W 54W 58W 62W 66W 70W 74W 77W 81W
14N 81W 83W 86W 90W 93W 97W 100W 103W 105W
11N 96W 100W 104W 108W 111W 114W 117W ---- ----
15N 22W 25W 29W 33W 37W 40W 43W 46W 49W
ALAMO...(WPC)
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