849
FXCA20 KWBC 271716
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1715 UTC:
OVER THE FORECAST REGION, SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND
INTO MEXICO, AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION, WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS FAVORS
TRADE WIND INVERSIONS OVER THE REGION, LIMITING ANY CONVECTION
THAT COULD DEVELOP. THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION, TO THE LACK OF
HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR THE DRY CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN, WHILE A STRONG ZONAL SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY, FURTHER
FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MEXICO.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH ITS BASE OVER NORTH
CUBA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS, ADVECTING MOIST PLUMES
OVER THE REGION THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE, WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 15-25MM IN CUBA AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM IN THE BAHAMAS, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, BLOCKED BY ZONAL WINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN RESPONSE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER FLORIDA, HOWEVER PREFRONTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION, WHERE
CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM, AND THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN HISPANIOLA WITH THE PRESENCE OF MOIST PLUMES EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WINDS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH BAHAMAS, WHERE IT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WEAK SHEAR LINE AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EAST
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THE BAHAMAS,
TURKS AND CAICOS, AND WEST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. SIMILAR
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SEASONALLY DRY WITH THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS, AS WELL
AS A OCCASIONAL MOIST PLUMES THAT MAKE IT INTO THE COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FROM EARLY SATURDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EXPECT AN
ELEVATION IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH THAT
IS PROPAGATING OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, FAVORING PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF 15MM IN THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA, A DRYING TREND IS ALSO
EXPECTED THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, THE BOLIVIAN HIGH HAS STRUGGLED TO RESTRUCTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT, LEAVING A DISORGANIZED ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT, WHILE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AMAZON BASIN AND SOUTHWARD. ON FRIDAY, A REGION
TO WATCH IS THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONVERGING WINDS IN THE TRADES OVER THE REGION, FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH MAXIMA REACHING 40-80MM,
PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN PARA-BRASIL. IN THE WESTERN COAST OF
ECUADOR, CONVERGING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORING SOME
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON
SATURDAY, THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER BRASIL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST REGION, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AMAZON
BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA, AND THE GUIANAS. TO
THE WEST, MOIST ONSHORE CONTINUES INTO WESTERN ECUADOR, FAVORING
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
WITH MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE VALLEYS OF THE ANDES REGION OF
CENTRAL COLOMBIA, WHILE MOIST ONSHORE ENTERS THE PACIFIC COAST. ON
SUNDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN ECUADOR, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. COLOMBIA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE AMAZON
BASIN, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE EASTERN PORTION, WHILE THE
WESTERN AMAZON BASIN COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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