760
FXCA20 KWBC 241714
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1710 UTC:
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE, EXPECT TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO BE
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, PLEASE
REFER TO
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?START#CONTENTS.
THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, HAITI AND
JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL STORM, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N, 74.6N,
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, AND THEN START TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE STORM, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW TRANSLATION SPEED, WHICH WILL
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AS EXTERNAL
RAINBANDS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THAT AREA, AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING
DEEP MOISTURE ONSHORE. A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. OVER SOUTHERN HAITI,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE TIBURON PENINSULA, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY DECREASE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION, BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. JAMAICA IS
EXPECTED TO START RECEIVING SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING OF THE STORM
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE UPSHEAR REGION, OR
WEST OF THE CENTER, ONCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO
DECREASE. WITH THE TROPICAL STORM STARTING TO MOVE WESTWARD
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR THESE THREE REGIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK.
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA, SOME
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AVAILABLE IN THE AREA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER
TROUGH NOW MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING. A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL BE
ATTRIBUTED TO EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM MELISSA.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER PUERTO RICO EACH DAY, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP MOISTURE FLOW GOING INTO THE REGION. FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES, AND A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA, WHICH COULD SUPPRESS SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY, BUT EASTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RAINFALL.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MEXICO AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING GUATEMALA, BELIZE AND EL SALVADOR,
OVER THE NEXT THREE. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS ARE THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS
AS MORE ZONAL WINDS AND RIDGING PREVAILS IN THE AREA. SOME
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY.
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA, AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL STORM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO KEEP A BROAD
AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
STRONGER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AND BE MORE SIGNIFICANT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
IN SOUTH AMERICA, A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THE DIURNAL CYCLE,AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, AS
LONG-FETCH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TROPICAL STORM MELISSA INTENSIFYING
IN THE CARIBBEAN, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING IN THE AREA.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA EACH DAY WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MOSTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LIMITED.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00
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