628
FXCA20 KWBC 071931
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1930 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
STRONG ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS IN MOST OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ON SUNDAY HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO AROUND THE TAMAULIPAS
REGION IN MEXICO. MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL FLOW ONSHORE INTO VERACRUZ BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET EXCEEDING 40KTS
EXPECTED, OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL BE ENHANCED, WHICH WILL YIELD
HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) PHASE WILL
SUPPORT THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT FAR DOWN SOUTH INTO THE
TROPICS, AND IN ADDITION, A REACTIVATION OF THE TEHUANTEPECER
LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A RESULT.
IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHEAR, ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PROPAGATING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN, WILL AID IN DRIVING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS INTERACTION WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, AND WITH THE REGION BEING LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED. AS A RESULT, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, INCLUDING
NORTHERN HONDURAS, BELIZE, WESTERN GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO THEN CONTINUE, BECOMING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA, A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION
FROM THE EAST, AND BRING DAILY PRECIPITATION TODAY AND OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INHIBIT
THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TODAY, BUT AS THE RIDGE
PROPAGATES TO THE EAST, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AT WHICH POINT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE
REGION WILL BE FULLY UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND WITH ADDITIONAL AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRECIPITATION WILL
PEAK AT AROUND 15-30MM ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 20-35MM ON
SUNDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD PAST THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GFS
INDICATES THAT THE FORMATION OF A POTENTIAL CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BE OF INTEREST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS, SOUTHERLY FLOW OF REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, WILL
BRING MODEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GIVEN THE
ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND RELATIVELY LOW MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO COME IN THE FORM
OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
IN THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES, AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENTER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. WITH A RELATIVELY QUICK WESTWARD
PROPAGATION, PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH A MAXIMUM OF
20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL THEN
REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY MORNING, AND
THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF. PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD PEAK AT 15-30MM IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESTART AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM OF
20-35MM TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND WITH AN INCREASE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL YIELD HIGHER TOTALS OF AROUND 25-50MM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ALSO AFFECT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, ALONG
WITH THE SURROUNDING AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 20-35MM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS, A MOISTURE
PLUME WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD VIA THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN CONVECTION WHICH WILL ALSO BE AIDED
BY DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL
GRADUALLY PROGRESS WESTWARD, BRINGING A MAXIMUM OF 20-40MM TO
GUYANA, NORTHERN BRAZIL, AND SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA TODAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND, THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS IN COLOMBIA, NORTHEAST PERU, WEST VENEZUELA, AND
EAST ECUADOR, BRINGING A MAXIMUM OF 20-35MM ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 1/00
EW 16N 54W 57W 60W 63W 66W 69W 72W ---
EW 15N 81W 84W 85W ---------
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