292
FXCA20 KWBC 091842
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 SEPTEMBER 2025 AT 1840 UTC:
SYNOPSIS:
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
REGION FROM TODAY UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL IN THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY AND LOCALLY INDUCED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE IN SOUTH AND WEST MEXICO, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS
WAVE AND HAS GIVEN IT AN 80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, PER THE LATEST OUTLOOK. FOR THE
BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN, A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO FLORIDA
TODAY, BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, AS IT WEAKENS. IN CENTRAL AMERICA,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE PANAMANIAN LOW WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAINFALL IN MEXICO FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK LIES IN THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WEEK. LOCATED AT 92W, THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO, EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE SKIRTING THE REST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY DROPPING AROUND 20-45MM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
IN WEST MEXICO, NORTH OF JALISCO, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
ALSO PROJECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE, BRINGING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF UP TO 30-60MM INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO, IN THE
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ REGION, WHERE A SURFACE
LOW, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
GULF, FLORIDA, AND THE ATLANTIC, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND INTO THE EAST SIDE OF MEXICO WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SUPPORT IN THE
MID-LEVELS BY THE WAY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SHOULD BRING
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION OF UPWARDS OF 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY AND
30-60MM ON THURSDAY.
IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS, A MODEST PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY. IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE CIRCULATION FROM THE PANAMANIAN LOW SHOULD ALSO
BRING SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION OF UP TO 25MM EACH DAY FROM TODAY
UNTIL FRIDAY.
BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF, FLORIDA, AND THE
ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TODAY, AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN THE BAHAMAS,
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY
MODERATE, REACHING A MAXIMUM OF UP TO 15-25MM ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO THE BAHAMAS
AS A COLD FRONT, WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
IN PUERTO RICO, THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT, TOTALING 15MM AND UP TO 15-25MM LOCALLY.
MEANWHILE IN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CAUSED BY OROGRAPHIC AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION, WITH ENHANCEMENT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF UP TO 25MM,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGION.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
THROUGHOUT MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEASONABLE. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, AN INFLUX OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA, COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, AND NORTHERN PERU. THIS, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY INDUCED DIURNAL HEATING, WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION
IN THE REGION EVERYDAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TOTALS OF UP
TO 20-35MM IN THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER, UP TO
20-45MM DAILY, ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA.
APPROXIMATE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12
UTC
INIT TYPE SOF 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12
13/00 13/12
TW 19N 62W 66W 70W 74W 78W 81W 84W
DISS ---
TW 15N 92W 94W 96W 97W 98W 100W 102W
104W 105W
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