395
FXCA20 KWBC 031929
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 3 AUGUST 2026 AT 1930 UTC:
MAIN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO IN ADDITION TO PANAMA, THE WESTERN
COLOMBIAN SHORE AND THE ORINOQUIA REGION TODAY. IN THE CARIBBEAN
AREA, CONVECTIVE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AREAS OF CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA.
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO REGION STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT AIR EVACUATION ALOFT AND THE DEEPENING OF AMID LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA GULF TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ENHANCE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) THAT MAY BE SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALY WILL BE
HIGHER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO ADVECTION HUMIDITY
AND FAVORABLE FORCING CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE CONDITIONS. A
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA, WITH A WEAK SUPPORT IN
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE, WILL INCREASE PAWT VALUES AND LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TOMORROW
TUESDAY, MID TO LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHERN AREAS OF SIERRA MADRE,
BEING ESPECIALLY POSITIVELY ANOMALOUS OVER NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG IN, SUPPORTING AN INCREASE
IN DAILY RAIN ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA THAT WILL LINGER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY,
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, MAIN AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN COAST AND PORTIONS OF SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AFTER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE PROVIDING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALOFT OF THIS
REGION TODAY, WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED IN THE MID LEVELS
AND FAVORING LOW LEVEL FORCING OVER GREATER ANTILLES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO
HIGH LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY PRESENT OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHERE HIGHER DAILY RAIN MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED.
THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF PWAT ALONG CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS REGION,
MAINLY, WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY ADVECTION
DRIVEN BY A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND BAHAMAS, AS WELL. ON TUESDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE MID
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SHOW UP AGAIN OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS REGION WITH
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN ACCUMULATION
MAXIMA OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL INCREASE AS
WELL, BUT IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
CONTINUOUS WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONDITIONS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH, A TROPICAL
WAVE AND STRONG LOWER LEVEL FORCING CONDITIONS THAT WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA COAST WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF DAILY RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG THIS
REGION TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE ORINOQUIA REGION,
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER. TOMORROW TUESDAY, AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD, IT WILL ENHANCE RAIN
MAXIMA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO REGION ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA TO
NORTHERN ECUADOR AND SO IT WILL OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYP SOF INIT 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12
TW 13N 15W 18W 23W 28W 33W 38W 44W 49W 54W
TW 24N 33W 35W 37W 40W 43W 45W 48W 52W 56W
EW 23N 41W 43W 46W 49W 52W 55W 57W DISS â€
TW 18N 67W 70W 72W 74W 77W 80W 83W 85W 87W
TW 20N 90W 94W 98W 101W 104W 107W 111W 115W 118W
TW 24N 102W 105W 108W 111W 114W 117W EXITS
SANCHEZ-PEREZ...(WPC)
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