454
FXHW01 KWNH 020843
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 03 APR 2026 - 00Z FRI 10 APR 2026
...MUCH WETTER PATTERN EMERGING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS
HAWAII...
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A TYPICAL
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER HAWAII. MOISTURE LEVELS
(PWS) SHOULD BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE, BUT SCATTERED WINDWARD SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
AND BRING A COLD FRONT NEAR THE STATE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS STARTING AROUND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACHING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
INTO MIDWEEK AND BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE AS PWS REACH OVER THE
90TH IF NOT 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, POOLING AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS ALL ISLANDS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DYNAMICAL/AI/ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY AGREEABLE IN SHOWING
THIS POTENTIAL, WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD FOR A MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
TIMEFRAME. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR A DAY 6-7
FORECAST IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN, THOUGH IT WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL
TIME TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS.
TATE
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