428
FXHW01 KWNH 010741
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
VALID 00Z MON 02 MAR 2026 - 00Z MON 09 MAR 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY POSITIONED NEAR THE WESTERN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE DIMINISHES. AS THE BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE STATE, AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, CHARACTERIZED BY PASSING
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RETROGRADING UPPER-LOW
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE AND GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE
REFLECTION OF THE LOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS LIFTS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF
A LOW CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER EAST THAN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS, INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND AI-BASED GUIDANCE.
PEREIRA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page