785
FXHW01 KWNH 270810
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VALID 00Z WED 28 JAN 2026 - 00Z WED 04 FEB 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST MAINTAINING A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME. BY LATE THURSDAY, A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS, PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS BY SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT NEXT WEEK AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH TO THE NORTH DRIVES A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
ISLAND CHAIN STARTING MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY, LIKELY BRINGING BRIEF, BUT
ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PRECISE FRONTAL
POSITIONING, THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH
RESPECT TO THE OVERALL TIMING OF THIS LATE-PERIOD SYSTEM.
PEREIRA
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