888
FXHW01 KWNH 030713
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VALID 00Z WED 04 FEB 2026 - 00Z WED 11 FEB 2026
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED
WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
WESTERN ISLANDS. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
VERY LITTLE, THOUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, DESPITE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES, ALL THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS (OPERATIONAL RUNS)
SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF AT 500 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON FRIDAY, AS THE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWESTERLY (KONA) WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
CLOUD COVER TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS (1.7-1.8 INCHES) AND PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER BANDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SETUP FAVORS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUTOFF LOW, WITH PERSISTENT DIFLUENCE AT UPPER
LEVELS AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.7 INCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER SHOWERS (HIGHEST POPS) WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS (KAUAI, NIIHAU, AND OAHU), WHERE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE, THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ISLANDS WILL MOSTLY CONFINED ACROSS THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGIONS.
HURLEY
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