746
FXHW01 KWNH 060932
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
532 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VALID 00Z THU 07 MAY 2026 - 00Z THU 14 MAY 2026
A SURFACE TROUGH (REMNANT FRONT) WILL PASS OVER HAWAII TODAY
(WEDNESDAY) AND DISRUPT THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY BACKGROUND WINDS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND
BEHIND THE TROUGH COULD GIVE WAY TO SEA AND LAND BREEZES, WITH
CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOLLOWING THOSE FEATURES. THE TROUGH COULD ENHANCE
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AND LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS, WHICH THE HREF SHOWS. AFTER THE REMNANT FRONT FULLY
DISSIPATES, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FOR A RETURN TO MODERATE
TRADES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS IN WINDWARD/MAUKA
AREAS.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH COULD REACH SOUTHWARD
INTO HAWAII. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING
DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD PARTICULARLY OVER KAUAI AND VICINITY AHEAD OF
A FRONT JUST NORTH, FOR POTENTIALLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER INTO AN UPPER LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY
SENDING MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.
ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO PRESS FRONTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO HAWAII
COMPARED TO GFS RUNS. THESE DETAILS ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH THE FRONTS.
TATE
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