964
FXHW01 KWNH 100910
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 11 JAN 2026 - 00Z SUN 18 JAN 2026
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF OF ASIA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
REACH A MEAN TROUGH POSITION SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN GET
DEFLECTED NORTHWARD UPON ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
ABLE TO APPROACH...IF NOT CROSS...THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF EACH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE TRADES AND BRING A
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FROM A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SCENARIO.
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTIUED TO BE ABOOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO DAY 5 / THURSDAY BEFORE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES OPEN
UP BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THOSE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THINK THE STRONGER ECMWF IS MORE
SUPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
BANN
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