567
FXHW01 KWNH 260811
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 27 FEB 2026 - 00Z FRI 06 MAR 2026
A FRONT LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRIES TO APPROACH NI'HAU
AND KAUAI THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT THAT WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERLAID WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE WETTEST, SHOWING
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CHAIN, AS THE
FRONT MOVES ALMOST TO THE BIG ISLAND, THEN BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST, MOVING BACK WEST OF KAUAI BY WEDNESDAY. THE EC,
AIFS, AND AIGFS ALL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT PERHAPS REACHES
NI'HAU AND KAUAI, SPREADING RAIN OVER THOSE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RETROGRADING BACK WEST OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC.
IN ALL THE MODELS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST BUILDS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, RETURNING THE NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS TO MOST OF THE ISLANDS. FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, THE NORTHEAST TRADES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST, AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING
WEST IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIKELY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY
WEDNESDAY.
WEGMAN
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