667
FXHW01 KWNH 060922
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
VALID 00Z WED 07 JAN 2026 - 00Z WED 14 JAN 2026
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE KONA LOW INITIALLY
WEST OF THE ISLANDS ALONG APPROXIMATELY 166W MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND WEAKENING. THE ENHANCED HEAVY
PRECIP THREAT FROM THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER WILL BE
DISSIPATING AT OR PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PW VALUES WILL, HOWEVER, REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEK, SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVIER THAN AVERAGE TRADE
SHOWERS.
AN INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRESS THROUGH THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS UPPER
TROF WILL PUSH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL THE ISLANDS
EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND MON AND TUESDAY. ENHANCED FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
ORAVEC
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