043
FXHW01 KWNH 030800
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 04 APR 2026 - 00Z SAT 11 APR 2026
...MUCH WETTER PATTERN EMERGING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS
HAWAII...
A TYPICAL BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD, PWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE, THOUGH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG FAVORED WINDWARD SLOPES AND MAUKA AREAS. HOWEVER, A
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS NEXT WEEK
PROGRESSES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND
AMPLIFY, DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE STATE.
BY MIDWEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL AND HEAVY AMOUNTS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTH, DRAWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WHILE THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A CUTOFF CLOSED LOW MAY FORM NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY. SUCH A DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND
FLOW AND EFFECTIVELY FOCUS A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE, ELEVATING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
PEREIRA
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