063
FXHW01 KWNH 230738
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 24 MAR 2026 - 00Z TUE 31 MAR 2026
THE GUIDANCE BROADLY ADVERTISES THE PATTERN ALOFT TO REMAIN
TROUGHY OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MAKING SOME STRIDES TOWARDS LONGER TERM REBUILDING FROM
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT INTO THE MAIN
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LINGERING AXIS OF MOISTURE AT THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM
DEPARTING THE ISLANDS TO THE NORTHEAST HELP CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN MAIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATE MONDAY ONWARD TO THE NORTH AND SOMETIMES
NORTHEAST, THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT AWAY.
THIS IS WILL DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND RETURN HAWAI'I TO THEIR MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND/UPSLOPE SHOWER REGIME WHICH PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY SHOWS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER HEAVY RAIN
RETURNS TO THE ISLAND OF HAWAI'I FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWING MORE OF A SIGNAL THAN THE 00Z GFS, WHICH BEARS
WATCHING TO SEE IF THE SIGNAL CAN STRENGTHEN/PERSIST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME.
ROTH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page