991
FXHW01 KWNH 160904
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 17 MAR 2026 - 00Z TUE 24 MAR 2026
...ANOMALOUS PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES...
WHILE LAST WEEKS KONA LOW HAS WEAKENED, AN ANOMALOUS PW AXIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PW ANOMALIES IN THIS AXIS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 4+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A RELATIVE QUIETER DAY 1 AND DAY
2 PERIOD, 0000 UTC TUE MAR 17 - 0000 UTC WED MAR 18 AND 0000 UTC
WED MAR 18 TO 0000 UTC THU MAR 19, RAINFALL WISE. HEAVIEST RAINS
DAY 1 AND 2 FORECAST TO BE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FROM MAUI TO THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST
PW VALUES ARE FORECAST.
AFTER THIS, THERE IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER
TROF WEST OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AXIS OF
ANOMALOUS PW TO AGAIN SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT ALL OF THE
ISLANDS FROM LATE IN THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE STILL IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD, BUT WITH
MODELS AGREEING ON THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS AND AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM
TROF, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE INCREASING AT THIS TIME.
WITH SOILS SATURATED AND CREEKS/RIVERS HIGH FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS, THE INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT, WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF LIFE- THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING STATEWIDE AT THIS TIME.
ORAVEC
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