055
FXHW01 KWNH 300849
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 31 JAN 2026 - 00Z SAT 07 FEB 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE WESTERN ISLANDS, WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TREK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
PARENT LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST, THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS, THEN STALL NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND.
BY LATE SUNDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A MORE ROBUST MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THE TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
(KONA) WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DRAW IN DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND, STRONGER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK (FEB 4-6), THE
ISLANDS WILL SETTLE INTO A POST-FRONTAL REGIME DOMINATED BY A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS AS
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE MORE
TYPICAL NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING
DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S, EVEN 50S
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HURLEY
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