658
FXHW01 KWNH 290910
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 00Z WED 30 SEP 2026 - 00Z WED 07 OCT 2026
...NOLO IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN ISLANDS MIDWEEK...
HURRICANE NOLO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK, WEST
OF THE ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ABOUT 250 NM WEST OF KAUAI BEFORE TURNING AND CONTINUING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OUTER RAINFALL BANDS EAST
OF THE CENTER ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY POSSIBLY PRODUCE
AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. REFER TO THE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING HURRICANE
NOLO.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL SUPPORT ABOVE-
NORMAL PWS INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN
AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY, BRINGING DRIER ACROSS THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND.
SPREAD ACROSS THE MODEL SUITES REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, HOWEVER BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PEREIRA
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