599
FXHW01 KWNH 060913
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
513 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VALID 00Z WED 07 OCT 2026 - 00Z WED 14 OCT 2026
A MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE STATE LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DISRUPT THE TRADES AND
CAUSE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY. AS THIS OCCURS,
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS 2.00-2.25") WILL BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPTICK IN DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN THIS FLOW REGIME, THE HEAVIEST,
MOST NUMEROUS/FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FAVOR SOUTH- FACING
PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GUIDANCE (MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLES) DO SHOW A RETURN OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES,
HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS MODESTLY MOIST (PWATS 1.5 TO 1.75"),
LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED, MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS
(COMPARED TO CLIMO) ACROSS THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
HURLEY
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