300
FXHW01 KWNH 070828
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 08 MAY 2026 - 00Z FRI 15 MAY 2026
EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH THAT DISRUPT THE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN. FOR MOST AREAS...EXCLUDING THE BIG
ISLAND...THAT GENERALLY SPELLS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE WAKE OF SEA AND LAND BREEZES. AFTER THE REMNANT FRONT FULLY
DISSIPATES, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FOR A RETURN TO MODERATE
TRADES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS IN WINDWARD/MAUKA
AREAS.
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
COULD REACH SOUTHWARD INTO HAWAII OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
PARTICULARLY OVER KAUAI AND VICINITY AHEAD OF A FRONT JUST NORTH,
FOR POTENTIALLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER INTO AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HAWAII EARLY TO MID- NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY SENDING MORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. EVEN THOUGH THE
DIFFERENCE HAS TIGHTENED UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
RUNS AND HOW THEY HANDLE FRONT ACROSS OR NEAR TO HAWAII...DETAIL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE FRONTS.
BANN
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