860
FXHW01 KWNH 020820
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 03 MAR 2026 - 00Z TUE 10 MAR 2026
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHEAST, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS REGIME WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS COLD
FRONT AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT LIKELY STALL WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS, OVER THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CENTER JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THE PROXIMITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE PLUME MAY ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ISLANDS.
PEREIRA
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