886
FXHW01 KWNH 230746
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 24 JAN 2026 - 00Z SAT 31 JAN 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING BEHIND A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOCUSED ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. WHILE THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY, GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF RETURN OF THE EASTERLY TRADES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AND A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
PEREIRA
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