492
FXHW01 KWNH 190822
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 20 JAN 2026 - 00Z TUE 27 JAN 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BROADER PATTERN FEATURES A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK BY THIS POINT, BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED MOISTURE LINGERING
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE
DETAILS, BUT THERE IS SOME GROWING PROBABILITY FOR A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY
LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT, WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST DETAILS BY THAT TIME. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS.
CHENARD
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