503
FXHW01 KWNH 280931
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
531 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 00Z WED 29 APR 2026 - 00Z WED 06 MAY 2026
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST AS A PROLONGED TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL
MATERIALIZE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE ISLAND CHAIN SETTLES ON
THE SOUTHERN BOUNDS OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENCROACH THE
ISLANDS DUE TO PREVAILING EASTERLIES LEADING TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ISLANDS.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 1.4-1.5") WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS, I.E. MORE SCATTERED (VS.
ISOLATED) SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. BEHIND THE TROUGH,
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS WHILE THE TRADES
RE-ESTABLISH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS KEYING ON A FRONTAL APPROACH AS A LOW
MIGRATES OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW, BUT THE PRESENCE OF SEASONAL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL
STILL ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
KLEEBAUER
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