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FXHW40 KWBC 181231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU MAY 18 2023
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2023
DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEKS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES RANGED FROM
ZERO TO ONE-HALF DEGREE CELSIUS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO
ONE-DEGREE CELSIUS (NEAR MAUI, OAHU AND KAUAI).
FOR JANUARY THROUGH APRIL 2023, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
-LIHUE AIRPORT 24.63 INCHES (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.41 INCHES (122 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.61 INCHES (103 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 56.51 INCHES (141 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS AROUND MOST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH JUNE 2023, AND NEAR-AVERAGE SSTS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII. THESE SST FORECASTS SUPPORT A FORECAST FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ISLANDS IN JUNE 2023, EXCEPT EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW,
NEAR, AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR HILO. ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN
JUNE, WHILE EC IS PREDICTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS INDICATED
BY DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 75.4 0.4 B40 5.3 6.3 8.7
KAHULUI A40 78.0 0.5 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2
HONOLULU A50 80.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3
LIHUE A60 78.1 0.4 EC 1.1 1.3 1.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2023 - JJA 2024
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY NINO 3.4 ANOMALY
AROUND POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE SST
ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE
SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE EXPANDED EASTWARD AND INCREASED IN
AMPLITUDE, WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY AT DEPTH EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR THEIR LONG-TERM AVERAGES IN RECENT WEEKS, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE LATEST CPC ENSO OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
FORECASTS, PREDICTS THAT A TRANSITION TO EL NIñO CONDITIONS IS VERY LIKELY BY
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 90 PERCENT FAVORING THE PERSISTENCE OF EL NIñO INTO THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND WHERE EC IS FAVORED) FROM
SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) 2023 THROUGH AUTUMN (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER) 2023,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL
FORECASTS. THE FORECAST SIGNAL WEAKENS AT LONGER LEADS, THEREFORE EQUAL CHANCES
(EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII
BEGINNING IN NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY 2023 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
DYNAMICAL MODELS FROM THE NMME SHOW INCREASED CONFIDENCE THIS MONTH IN
PREDICTING ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM SUMMER
(JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) THROUGH AUTUMN (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER). WITH THE VERY
LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF EL NIñO CONDITIONS INTO WINTER, REGRESSIONS OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NIñO 3.4 INDEX SUPPORT LIKELY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING FROM AUTUMN (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER) INTO WINTER
(DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY). DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM FORECAST TOOLS AT LONGER LEADS, EC IS INDICATED
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING IN THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH 2024 SEASON.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2023 EC 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2023 EC 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2023 EC 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2023 EC 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2023 EC 75.5 0.4 B50 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2023 EC 74.2 0.4 B50 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2024 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2024 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2024 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2024 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2024 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2024 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2024 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2023 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2023 A40 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2023 A40 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2023 A40 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2023 A40 77.8 0.4 B50 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2023 EC 75.9 0.4 B50 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2024 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2024 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2024 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2024 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2024 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2023 A50 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2023 A50 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2023 A50 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2023 A50 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2023 A40 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2023 EC 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2024 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2024 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2024 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2024 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2024 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2024 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2024 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2023 A60 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2023 A60 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2023 A60 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2023 A60 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2023 A50 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2023 EC 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2024 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2024 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2024 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2024 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU JUN 15, 2023.
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