051
FXHW40 KWBC 201346
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU MAR 20 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2025
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ABOUT +0.5 TO +1.0 DEGREES CELSIUS (C)
WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FOR JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY 2025, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 3.20 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.02 INCHES (159 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.81 INCHES (109 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 9.34 INCHES (52 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) FAVOR POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN APRIL 2025. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND HAWAII OR THE
BIG ISLAND) FOR APRIL, 2025.
FOR THE APRIL 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND C3S
PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WEAK
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED IN THE APRIL
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A70 72.6 0.7 A40 7.4 8.9 11.2
KAHULUI A70 74.1 0.6 A40 0.5 0.9 1.3
HONOLULU A70 76.3 0.5 A40 0.3 0.5 0.7
LIHUE A70 74.0 0.6 A40 1.6 1.9 2.8
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2025 - AMJ 2026
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN AND FAR WESTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. BELOW AVERAGE SSTS WERE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC, AT DEPTH NEAR THE DATE LINE, AND IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND WERE WESTERLY OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES
WERE WESTERLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND WERE EASTERLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED AROUND THE DATE LINE AND WESTERN PACIFIC. MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT MONTH
AND PERSIST THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER (62% PROBABILITY IN JUN-JUL-AUG
2025).
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO FOR AMJ (APRIL-MAY-JUNE)
THROUGH AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2025, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS DECADAL TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. DUE TO WEAKENING SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR
HAWAII BEGINNING IN SON (SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH
LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM AMJ TO JJA
(JUN-JUL-AUGUST) 2025, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ALSO SUPPORT FORECASTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DUE TO WEAKER
SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS,
EC IS INDICATED FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR ALL OF HAWAII BEGINNING IN JAS (JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER) 2025 AND EXTENDING
THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2025 A70 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 A70 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 A60 75.2 0.4 A40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 A50 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 A50 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2026 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2026 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2026 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2026 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2026 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2025 A70 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 A70 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 A65 77.7 0.4 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 A50 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 A50 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2026 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2026 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2026 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2026 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2025 A70 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 A70 78.2 0.4 A40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 A65 79.9 0.4 A40 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 A50 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 A50 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2026 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2026 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2026 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2026 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2025 A70 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 A70 76.0 0.5 A40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 A65 77.7 0.4 A40 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 A50 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 A50 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2026 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2026 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2026 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2026 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU APR 17, 2025.
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