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FXHW40 KWBC 151331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2026
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES IN THE RANGE OF +0.5 TO +1 DEGREES
CELSIUS (C) WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK WITH WARMER ANOMALIES NEAR KAUAI AND
WEAKER POSITIVE ANOMALIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER 2025, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 30.05 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 15.10 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.05 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 58.95 INCHES (49 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) PREDICT POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2026. MOST MODELS PREDICT WEAKER
POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2026.
BASED ON MODEL SST AND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR KAUAI (LIHUE), OAHU (HONOLULU), MAUI (KAHULUI),
AND THE BIG ISLAND (HILO), WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FEBRUARY 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED FOR ALL ISLANDS OF HAWAII, WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. THE OUTLOOK
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND IMME, AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
FORECASTS FROM THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA).
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A45 71.4 0.5 A40 5.0 8.4 11.1
KAHULUI A50 71.9 0.6 A45 0.9 1.1 1.8
HONOLULU A55 73.3 0.5 A50 0.7 1.0 1.4
LIHUE A60 71.7 0.6 A55 1.3 1.8 4.0
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2026 - FMA 2027
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR FURTHER DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK.
LA NIñA CONDITIONS CONTINUED INTO JANUARY 2026. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC
OCEAN. SST ANOMALIES WERE NEGATIVE IN RECENT WEEKS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WITH AVERAGE ANOMALIES FOR THE NIñO 3.4 REGION
RANGING BETWEEN -0.5 AND -0.9 C SINCE MID-DECEMBER. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10 DEGREES N LATITUDE. ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
AT DEPTHS AS GREAT AS 200 METERS, WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED, SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY, TO THE EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ABOVE-AVERAGE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR), ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION, IS OBSERVED AROUND THE DATE LINE
IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE OLR, ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE MARITIME
CONTINENT AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES ARE
NEAR-AVERAGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL (200-HPA) WIND
ANOMALIES ARE WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) HAS BEEN INACTIVE IN RECENT WEEKS WITH LA NIñA
DOMINATING THE LOW-FREQUENCY TROPICAL VARIABILITY. THE REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE
MJO (RMM) INDEX HAS RECENTLY EMERGED IN PHASE 6 IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
MODELS PREDICT AMPLIFICATION OF THE MJO SIGNAL AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS
THE PACIFIC. HOWEVER IMPACTS OF THE MJO FOR HAWAII ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE START OF FEBRUARY AND DO NOT PLAY A ROLE IN THE MONTHLY OR SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS.
MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT A TRANSITION FROM LA NIñA TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT MONTH. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE NCEP
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFSV2) AND THE CPC SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) PREDICT
A RAPID INCREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF EL NIñO CONDITIONS, WITH NIñO 3.4 ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +0.5
DEGREES C, BY THE END OF BOREAL SPRING (JUNE). WHILE THE CPC SST CANONICAL
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) PREDICTS LA NIñA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST SLIGHTLY
LONGER AND A POSITIVE NIñO 3.4 ANOMALY TO EMERGE IN SPRING, THE CCA FAVORS
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUMMER. THE CPC ENSO OUTLOOK FORECASTS
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WITH A 75% CHANCE IN THE THREE-MONTH
JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) SEASON. HOWEVER, EL NIñO CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN ENSO-NEUTRAL IN SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN 2026. THE IMPACTS OF LA
NIñA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FEBRUARY AND THE NEXT THREE MONTHS FOR
HAWAII AND THE TROPICS, DESPITE PREDICTED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS, IN PART DUE
TO THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT EAST-WEST GRADIENT OF
TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES. HISTORICALLY, LA NIñA CONDITIONS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN THE BOREAL WINTER. THE HAWAII SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL FORECASTS, INCLUDING THE CA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ENSO OUTLOOK IN SPRING AND SUMMER, CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE HAWAII
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THESE SEASONS. THEREFORE,
THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR HAWAII AFTER
ABOUT FOUR MONTHS LEAD TIME AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AFTER
ABOUT THREE MONTHS LEAD TIME.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO BEGINNING IN FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL
(FMA) AND CONTINUING THROUGH MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2026, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS THE CA STATISTICAL
MODEL, AND CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE REGION.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GREATER FOR NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS OF HAWAII IN EARLY SEASONS, EXCEEDING 55 PERCENT FOR LIHUE AND
HONOLULU, FOLLOWING CALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME. DUE TO INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF ENSO AND WEAKENING SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT
LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2026 AND EXTENDING
THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, FOR FMA THROUGH
APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2026, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND
POSSIBLE CONTINUING LA NIñA IMPACTS. THROUGH THE FIRST THREE LEADS, GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS, AND LOWER PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS.
BEGINNING IN MJJ 2026 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS, EC IS INDICATED IN
THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF ENSO AND
WEAKER SIGNALS IN FORECAST TOOLS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2026 A45 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2026 A45 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2026 A40 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2026 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2026 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2026 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2026 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2026 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2026 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2027 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2026 A50 72.3 0.4 A45 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2026 A45 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2026 A40 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2026 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2026 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2027 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2026 A55 73.8 0.4 A50 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2026 A50 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2026 A45 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2026 A40 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2026 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2026 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2026 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2026 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2026 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2026 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2026 A55 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2026 A50 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2026 A45 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2026 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2026 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2027 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU FEB 19, 2026.
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