992
FXHW40 KWBC 191330
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2026
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES IN THE RANGE OF +0.5 TO +1 DEGREES
CELSIUS (C) WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK WITH WARMER ANOMALIES NEAR KAUAI,
OAHU, MAUI, AND WEAKER POSITIVE ANOMALIES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
FOR JANUARY 2026, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 2.22 INCHES (80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.34 INCHES (73 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.69 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 9.07 INCHES (115 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) PREDICT POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2026. BASED ON MODEL SST AND SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, INCLUDING KAUAI (LIHUE), OAHU (HONOLULU), MAUI (KAHULUI), AND
THE BIG ISLAND (HILO) IN MARCH.
FOR THE MARCH 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED FOR ALL ISLANDS OF HAWAII, WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. THE OUTLOOK
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND IMME, AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
FORECASTS FROM THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA). THE IMPACT OF A TRANSITIONING LA
NIñA WOULD ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MARCH.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 72.0 0.6 A45 5.7 10.8 15.2
KAHULUI A50 72.9 0.5 A45 1.4 1.9 2.9
HONOLULU A50 74.7 0.5 A50 0.6 0.8 1.9
LIHUE A50 72.7 0.6 A55 1.9 2.6 3.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2026 - MAM 2027
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR FURTHER DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK.
LA NIñA CONDITIONS CONTINUED INTO FEBRUARY 2026. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WERE MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPANDED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN AND HAVE REACHED THE SURFACE IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES WEAKENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER
THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS
EVIDENT OVER EASTERN INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES, AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. WEAK
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE DATE LINE AND
ALONG THE EQUATOR AROUND THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF A
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING JANUARY-MARCH 2026. ENSO-NEUTRAL IS LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LATE SPRING 2026.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO BEGINNING IN MARCH-APRIL-MAY
(MAM) AND CONTINUING THROUGH JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2026, SUPPORTED BY
NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS THE CA
STATISTICAL MODEL, AND CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR
THE REGION. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF ENSO AND WEAKENING
SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE,
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN
AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2026 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, FOR MAM THROUGH
MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2026, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND
POSSIBLE CONTINUING LA NIñA IMPACTS. BEGINNING IN JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2026
AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS, EC IS INDICATED IN THE SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF ENSO AND WEAKER
SIGNALS IN FORECAST TOOLS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2026 A55 72.0 0.5 A50 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2026 A50 72.9 0.5 A45 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2026 A50 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2026 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2026 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2026 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2026 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2026 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2027 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2027 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2026 A55 73.0 0.4 A50 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2026 A50 74.3 0.5 A45 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2026 A50 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2026 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2026 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2026 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2027 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2027 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2026 A55 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2026 A50 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2026 A50 78.2 0.4 A40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2026 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2026 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2026 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2026 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2026 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2026 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2027 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2026 A55 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2026 A50 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2026 A50 76.0 0.5 A40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2026 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2026 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2026 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2027 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2027 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU MAR 19, 2026.
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