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FXHW40 KWBC 171231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2024
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OF KAUAI, OAHU, AND
MAUI, HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE
SSTS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 23.82 INCHES (98 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.77 INCHES (93 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 10.79 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 74.97 INCHES (90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) GENERALLY PREDICT ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH OCTOBER 2024 INTO NOVEMBER 2024. THEREFORE,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND THE BIG
ISLAND IN NOVEMBER 2024. FOR THE NOVEMBER 2024 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL IS FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND CONSISTENT WITH A
TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NIñA CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 74.4 0.4 EC 8.7 11.4 17.1
KAHULUI A50 76.0 0.6 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
HONOLULU A50 77.8 0.6 EC 0.9 1.4 2.1
LIHUE A50 75.8 0.5 EC 2.6 3.5 5.5
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2024 - NDJ 2025
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE NEAR-TO-BELOW-AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REMAIN AT DEPTH IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION
WAS OBSERVED OVER THE DATE LINE AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
COLLECTIVELY, THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM REFLECTED ENSO-NEUTRAL. LA
NIñA IS FAVORED TO EMERGE IN SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) WITH A 60%
CHANCE, AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) 2025.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND) IN NDJ
(NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY) 2024, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MAM (MARCH-APRIL-MAY) 2025 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXPECTED LA
NIñA. THE FORECAST SIGNAL WEAKENS AT LONGER LEADS, THEREFORE EC IS INDICATED
FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN AMJ (APRIL-MAY-JUNE) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER
LEADS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN NDJ
2024 THROUGH MAM 2025. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS OF THE NMME,
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) STATISTICAL MODEL. COLD SEASON
LA NIñAS OFTEN ACCENTUATE THE USUAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF THE LOWER LATITUDES,
AND TYPICALLY BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TO WINDWARD LOCATIONS AND INCREASED
DRYNESS TO LEEWARD LOCATIONS.THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION TO THIS INVOLVES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF KONA LOWS, WHICH FREQUENTLY BRING INCREASED RAINFALL TO BOTH
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SITES. THEREAFTER, BEGINNING IN AMJ 2025 AND EXTENDING
THROUGH LONGER LEADS, THE FORECAST SIGNAL DECREASES, LEAVING EC IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2024 A50 74.2 0.4 A45 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 A60 72.8 0.4 A55 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 A60 71.8 0.4 A55 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 A50 71.7 0.4 A55 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 A45 72.0 0.5 A45 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2024 A50 75.9 0.4 A45 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 A60 73.8 0.4 A55 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 A60 72.5 0.4 A55 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 A50 72.3 0.4 A55 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 A45 73.0 0.4 A45 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2024 A50 77.7 0.5 A45 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 A60 75.3 0.5 A55 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 A60 73.9 0.4 A55 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 A50 73.8 0.4 A55 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 A45 74.8 0.4 A45 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2024 A50 75.7 0.3 A45 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 A60 73.6 0.4 A55 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 A60 72.2 0.4 A60 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 A50 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 A45 72.8 0.5 A45 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU NOV 21, 2024.
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