213
FXHW40 KWBC 201331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2025
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ABOUT +0.5 TO +2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS (C)
WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FOR JANUARY 2025, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 5.21 INCHES (90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.84 INCHES (283 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.05 INCHES (167 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT8.59 INCHES (109 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) FAVOR POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2025. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND HAWAII OR THE
BIG ISLAND) FOR MARCH, 2025.
FOR THE MARCH 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND C3S
PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
IMPACT OF A LA NIñA WOULD ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MARCH (SEE
FURTHER DISCUSSION OF LA NIñA BELOW). WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED IN THE MARCH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL LA NIñA FORCING.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 72.0 0.6 A40 5.7 10.8 15.2
KAHULUI A50 72.9 0.5 A40 1.4 1.9 2.9
HONOLULU A50 74.7 0.5 A40 0.6 0.8 1.9
LIHUE A50 72.7 0.6 A40 1.9 2.6 3.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2025 - MAM 2026
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IN MOST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS WERE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND IN PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILED IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC AND AT DEPTH WEST OF THE DATE LINE.
LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY FROM THE WESTERN TO EAST-CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS PREDICT LA NIñA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY-APRIL 2025, WITH
A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL (GREATER THAN 66% PROBABILITY) LIKELY DURING
MARCH-MAY 2025.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO FOR MAM
(MARCH-APRIL-MAY) THROUGH JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2025, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS DECADAL
TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A WEAK LA NIñA. DUE
TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF ENSO AND WEAKENING SIGNALS IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN ASO
(AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM MAM TO MJJ
(MAY-JUN-JUL) 2025, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AS WELL AS
CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA NIñA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF POSITIVE SST
ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALSO SUPPORT FORECASTS OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DUE TO WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN ENSO FORCING, EC
IS INDICATED FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
ALL OF HAWAII BEGINNING IN JJA (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH
LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2025 A70 72.0 0.5 A45 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 A70 72.9 0.5 A45 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 A60 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 A50 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 A50 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2026 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2026 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2026 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2026 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2025 A70 73.0 0.4 A45 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 A70 74.3 0.5 A45 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 A65 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 A50 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2026 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2026 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2026 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2025 A70 74.8 0.4 A45 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 A70 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 A65 78.2 0.4 A40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 A50 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 A50 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2026 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2026 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2026 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2025 A70 72.8 0.5 A45 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 A70 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 A65 76.0 0.5 A40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 A50 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2026 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2026 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2026 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2026 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU MAR 20, 2025.
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