673
FXHW40 KWBC 191331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2025
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ABOUT OR GREATER THAN +0.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS (C) WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 26.85 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.75 INCHES (76 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.43 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 96.50 INCHES (89 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) FAVOR POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JANUARY 2025. SOME MODELS PREDICT WEAK OR NEAR
ZERO SST ANOMALIES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JANUARY 2025.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI,
OAHU, MAUI AND HAWAII OR THE BIG ISLAND) FOR JANUARY WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF MAUI (KAHULUI) AND HAWAII (HILO),
BASED ON MODEL FORECASTS.
FOR THE JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND C3S
PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY ACROSS ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. TWO OUT OF SIX C3S MODELS (METEO-FRANCE AND CMCC) PREDICT NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. OF THE NMME MODELS, GFDL SPEAR AND NCAR CCSM4 ALSO
PREDICT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE SIX OTHER NMME MODELS PREDICT
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE IMPACT OF A LA NIñA WOULD ALSO FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY (SEE FURTHER DISCUSSION OF LA NIñA BELOW),
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST OF LA NIñA IS UNCERTAIN. WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED IN THE JANUARY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL LA NIñA FORCING.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 71.6 0.5 A40 3.1 8.9 11.8
KAHULUI A40 72.1 0.6 A40 1.2 2.3 2.8
HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 2.1
LIHUE A45 71.8 0.7 A40 1.3 2.2 4.8
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2025 - JFM 2026
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH NOVEMBER. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, AND NEAR TO WEAKLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE
EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL (200-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION WERE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WERE OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME
ISLANDS TO THE WEST. MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AND SHORT DURATION LA NIñA BY FORECASTS OF
NEGATIVE NIñO 3.4 REGION SST ANOMALIES BELOW THE -0.5 C THRESHOLD. LA NIñA IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOP WITH A 70% PROBABILITY DURING THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY
SEASON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER WITH GREATER THAN 50%
PROBABILITY THROUGH THE FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL 2025 SEASON.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO FOR JFM
(JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH) THROUGH MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2025, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS DECADAL
TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A WEAK LA NIñA IN
THROUGH WINTER. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GREATER FOR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII, EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT IN EARLY SEASONS,
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF
ENSO AND WEAKENING SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES
(EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII
BEGINNING IN JJA (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM JFM TO AMJ
(APRIL-MAY-JUN) 2025, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AS WELL
AS CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA NIñA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF POSITIVE SST
ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALSO SUPPORT FORECASTS OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS, INCLUDING
CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) AND A COMBINED
ENSO AND DECADAL TREND FORECAST USING OPTIMUM CLIMATE NORMALS (ENSO-OCN),
SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THREE OVERLAPPING
SEASONS. DUE TO WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODELS AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN ENSO FORCING, EC IS
INDICATED FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
ALL OF HAWAII BEGINNING IN MJJ 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2025 A50 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 A50 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 A50 72.0 0.5 A45 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 A45 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 A45 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2026 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2026 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2025 A60 72.5 0.4 A55 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 A55 72.3 0.4 A55 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 A55 73.0 0.4 A45 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 A45 74.3 0.5 A45 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2026 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2025 A60 73.9 0.4 A55 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 A60 73.8 0.4 A55 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 A55 74.8 0.4 A45 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 A45 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2026 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2026 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2025 A60 72.2 0.4 A60 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 A60 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 A60 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 A50 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2026 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2026 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU JAN 16, 2025.
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