222
FXUS01 KWBC 160823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUL 16 2026 - 12Z SAT JUL 18 2026
...ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY TODAY, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD THE BIG BEND ON FRIDAY...
...ANOMALOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHILE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN U.S WITH GREATEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDERS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA LATER
TODAY; STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...
AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER HIGH PROLONGS A HEATWAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES, A
SLOW-MOVING WEATHER REGIME CONTINUES TO TRANSPIRE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES WHERE A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS MIGRATED WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO SUPPORT A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. CONTINUED INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LOW TO BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6-8" WITH LOCALLY 10+ INCHES TODAY
AS THESE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWARD
FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLASH FLOODING SITUATION IN THE
REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST
SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA, AND POSSIBLY BE CONFINED TO
WESTERN TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WITH DAILY MAXIMUMS HOLDING STEADY IN THE
90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
PENETRATE DEEPER INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE
READINGS DROP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 90S ON FRIDAY. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT.
IN THE WESTERN U.S., SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MORE MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS LATER TODAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD.
KONG
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