904
FXUS01 KWBC 180737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 18 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 20 2026
...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR TO BRING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...
...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
THERE WILL BE TWO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT EFFECT THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BE
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR THAT WILL BRING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS APPEARING MORE
LIKELY THAT A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS GENERAL AREA WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES,
AND SOME AREAS COULD GET OVER SIX INCHES OF RAIN LEADING TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE
SERIOUS. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO, A HIGH
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS VALID FOR THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE OTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JUNE STANDARDS THAT WILL
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THESE SAME REGIONS, AND A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS VALID FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST U.S.
GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW YORK.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, INTENSE HEAT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDING NORTH TO
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE COMBINATIONS OF 95-105 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES IN MANY CASES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ABATEMENT IN THE HEATWAVE GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE. IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HOT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S
ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, AND ALSO FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, ALSO
PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES. THE HEATWAVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL JUNE
CONDITIONS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HAMRICK
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