077
FXUS01 KWBC 170755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2019
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 17 2019 - 12Z THU SEP 19 2019
..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TEXAS
..ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BE
RATHER AMPLIFIED ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S., AND
TROUGHS NEAR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, A HIGH QUALITY
AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER, MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE AUTUMN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS, THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS A VERY SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS IN COPIOUS MOISTURE TO THIS
REGION. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER EXISTS FOR THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AS A NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES
INLAND, WITH SOME RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
D. HAMRICK
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