856
FXUS01 KWBC 280833
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 28 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2026
...RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
...LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY...
...THE WEST COAST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SUNSHINE STATE WILL
SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL SUPPORT A LARGE CONTRAST
IN TEMPERATURES AS A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE AN OUTBREAK OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL NEAR AND MAY BREAK SOME
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AS THE MERCURY RISES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS MAY ALSO REACH THE
UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE LOW 90S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. PLENTY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S (60S IN
HIGH TERRAIN) ARE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE WINTER.
MEANWHILE, AN OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY REACHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND EAST
COAST. BY SUNDAY, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S, 30S,
AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S. MORNING LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S
AND TEENS. THE COLD AIR WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST BY
MONDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FALLING ACROSS MONTANA TO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALL NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS FROM THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES FOR
TODAY, THOUGH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE SNOW COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED IN THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY WILL SET THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AND
THUS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR ICE. THERE ARE 30-40 %
PROBABILITIES FROM THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX FOR SOME MINOR
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. AS THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY, THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND ICE AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS IN.
ACROSS FLORIDA, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR TODAY. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND SOME
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE HAZARDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIES OVER THE REGION, MORE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS MUCH OF THE STATE IS BATTLING FIRES IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
AROUND OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS. FOR THE WEST COAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ONSHORE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
WILDER/KONG
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