077  
FXUS01 KWBC 170755  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 17 2019 - 12Z THU SEP 19 2019  
   
..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TEXAS
 
 
   
..ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
 
 
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BE  
RATHER AMPLIFIED ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S., AND  
TROUGHS NEAR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED  
TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP BELOW AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST  
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, A HIGH QUALITY  
AIRMASS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG  
SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA GOVERNS THE OVERALL WEATHER, MAKING IT  
FEEL MORE LIKE AUTUMN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS, THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL  
BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS A VERY SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE  
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS IN COPIOUS MOISTURE TO THIS  
REGION. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER EXISTS FOR THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL OF FLASH  
FLOODING FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE,  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AS A NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES  
INLAND, WITH SOME RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS  
THE UPPER MIDWEST, A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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