851
FXUS01 KWBC 012005
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2025
VALID 00Z WED JUL 02 2025 - 00Z FRI JUL 04 2025
...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA, AND MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...
...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST AND BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THESE REGIONS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO REFORM OVER A BOUNDARY FROM THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER TO COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND POTENTIALLY DROP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAINFALL. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT VERY EFFICIENTLY FOR THE
DAYS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVING AS A SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS IN THE TAMPA BAY REGION SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE SUN COAST MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5-7 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
FURTHERMORE, THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRING THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ARIZONA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER
SENSITIVE TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS SENSITIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. A
BROADER MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS FOR THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, TWO AREAS OF MARGINAL RISK ARE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OVER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. ON
THURSDAY, THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR STORM
STRUCTURES TO BRING STRONG WINDS. ALSO, A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS.
MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE TRENDING AVERAGE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF JULY ACROSS THE SOUTH
OWING TO THE ABUNDANCE OF RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
SUNSHINE STATE. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE HEAT SPREADING EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10-15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. THIS MAY APPROACH HEAT RISK IN THE MAJOR
RANGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY, AND
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.
WILDER
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