061  
FXUS01 KWBC 221811  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
 
VALID 00Z WED JUL 23 2025 - 00Z FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
...WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISKS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY..  
 
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM  
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE  
SOUTHEAST, ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST...  
 
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,  
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EAST OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAJOR HEAT RISKS, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND  
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THESE HEAT RISKS WILL THEN PUSH BACK  
INTO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY OVER  
80 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER EITHER AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING, EXTREME  
HEAT WATCH OR HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE SOUTHEAST, NORTH FLORIDA, THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HEAT WAVE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN  
EASTWARD. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS, THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RECORDS WITH THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE WITH  
THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
IN CONTRAST TO THE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN  
U.S....TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY ALL  
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHERE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS  
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER A  
SMALL PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT  
BASIN WHERE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION WISE...ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERIES  
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS  
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-UPPER LAKES REGIONS, AND FROM  
THE SOUTHEAST, ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND  
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS. ACROSS BOTH REGION,  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSING ALONG SEPARATE SLOW  
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION. WITH MOISTURE  
VALUES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THESE AREAS, LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION  
TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT, SEVERE WEATHER IS  
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL  
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF  
TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE  
WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION.  
 
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE  
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH  
FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A  
STATIONARY FRONT AND A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO  
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS  
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES  
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND  
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED REGIONS. SEVERE  
WEATHER WISE, THE RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE  
ACTIVE PRECIP AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION, WITH ONLY A  
MARGINAL RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PRIMARILY THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
WHILE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO HEAVY RAIN  
AREAS, THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM EASTERN ARIZONA, ACROSS MUCH OF NEW  
MEXICO, COLORADO, AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY  
IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, WITH RECENT BURN  
SCAR AREAS POSING THE THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS FROM ANY HEAVY RAINS  
THAT FALL ACROSS THEM.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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