868  
FXUS01 KWBC 081953  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
352 PM EDT WED OCT 08 2025  
 
VALID 00Z THU OCT 09 2025 - 00Z SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF HURRICANE  
PRISCILLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO A THREAT OF FLASH  
FLOODING...  
 
...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE THREAT OF  
COASTAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST COAST  
LATE THIS WEEK...  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST ALONG  
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN  
NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THEN, ON  
THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM  
PRISCILLA BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD, HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH SLIGHT  
RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE COLORADO RIVER  
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY, AND NORTHERN  
ARIZONA TO THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CONCERNING FOR THE USUAL  
TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS INCLUDING BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND  
URBAN AREAS. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A  
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT WILL BECOME ONLY MORE CONCERNING  
AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SATURATED.  
 
IN THE EASTERN U.S., SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO  
THURSDAY ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A MORE IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW OFF  
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEEPENING BY LATER THIS  
WEEK, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST INTO THE  
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THE INITIAL THREATS WILL LIKELY BE  
INCREASED RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING, AS WELL AS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL, ALONG THE CAROLINAS, GEORGIA,  
AND FLORIDA COAST. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING  
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY AND  
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. A SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING  
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THOUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR  
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING  
SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  
 
MUCH COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE, FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO  
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A  
COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND  
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST, WITH SOME MODERATION BY  
FRIDAY FOR THE MIDWEST. MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S HAVE PROMPTED  
FROST/FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING, AND FOR COASTAL NEW  
ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR FRIDAY  
MORNING. MEANWHILE, ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND  
80S, AND SOME 90S IN TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SLOWLY  
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES  
TO THE WEST COAST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S NORTH AND 70S  
SOUTH.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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