846
FXUS01 KWBC 110729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 11 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 13 2026
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, CROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
THEN HEAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND
HAIL.
IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
THE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL MAINLY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY, THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES TO A MARGINAL RISK
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CREATED OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/MIDDLE /LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LASTLY, MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST, CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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