683  
FXUS01 KWBC 192021  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
321 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED NOV 20 2019 - 00Z FRI NOV 22 2019  
 
...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL  
AS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND MODERATE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN  
TIER STATES ALONG THE BORDER WITH CANADA...  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHWEST...  
 
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREADING OVER PARTS OF  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...  
 
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY  
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH  
THURSDAY EVENING. THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE  
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING OF MANY STREAMS AND POTENTIALLY AFFECTING  
LARGER RIVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD  
TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE  
RAIN AND SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY  
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. IN  
ADDITION, WITH A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SETTING UP A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR  
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA. THE WIND WILL BLOW AT 15-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN  
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS, WILL BECOME COMMON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND OTHER TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF  
THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15% DURING PEAK HEATING  
PERIODS - LOCALLY LOWER. WITH DRY FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION, ELEVATED AND CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER  
THE REGION.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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