774
FXUS01 KWBC 171759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VALID 00Z THU SEP 18 2025 - 00Z SAT SEP 20 2025
...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
..TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WHERE WET WEATHER OCCURS NEXT
TWO DAYS, OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
THE COASTAL STORM OVER THE THE EASTERN SHORES OF VIRGINIA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST,
BRINGING LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, AN
OCCLUSION IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, ADDING SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
THE MID-SECTION OF CONUS. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AREAS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, DUE TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES, WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
POST TROPICAL MARIO CONTINUES TO BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR
SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA, PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH CHANCES OF
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH RAINFALLS TOTALS EXPECTED TO REACH 1-3" AND
RAINFALL RATES >1"/HR, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. OVERALL, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE BENEFICIAL, AS THESE AREAS
HAVE BEEN NOTABLY DRY. A GENERAL HALF AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY UP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WIND-FACING TERRAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY,
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE REST OF CONUS WILL
GENERALLY EXPERIENCE BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 90S IN THE MIDWEST AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO COOL TO 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS (WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OF 2-3"/HR) AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA,
WITH THE KEYS SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PART OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY TODAY BUT SHOULD EASE
BY THURSDAY, AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUDIT
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