789
FXUS01 KWBC 041929
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST WED MAR 04 2026
VALID 00Z THU MAR 05 2026 - 00Z SAT MAR 07 2026
...A FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND LATER A DRYLINE, ARE FORECAST TO BRING
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...
...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. AND ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, AND WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX...
...ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK...
A PREVIEW OF SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE, PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, IS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ON THURSDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK WESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN
KANSAS, AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES ALONG THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING STORM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES. THEN ON FRIDAY,
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, AS
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE GULF BRINGS IN LARGE SWATHS OF
MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE, WHICH AT THIS POINT WILL BE EVEN MORE WELL
DEFINED, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO WEST OKLAHOMA. AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY.
FURTHER WEST, A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY INLAND THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE REGIONS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION, WHILE THE COASTAL AND LOW ELEVATION REGIONS SHOULD
EXPECT TO SEE A WINTRY MIX. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYLINE REMAINING IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD
AREA OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S DOWN SOUTH.
THE WARMTH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO
VALLEY, WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE.
ONE NOTABLE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME, IN THE
FORM OF A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE
A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO NEW
JERSEY, WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY MUCH
COOLER. THE BROADER NORTHEAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE, AS LOW-TO MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO FULLY
DISLODGE THE ENTRENCHED COOL AIR MASS.
BLANCO-ALCALA/HAMRICK/PEREIRA
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