793
FXUS01 KWBC 220738
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 22 2025 - 12Z MON FEB 24 2025
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST...
...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. FOLLOWING PROLONGED ARCTIC BLAST...
AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THROUGH THE
REGION AS AN INITIAL PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN, A MORE SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LATER SATURDAY, EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL KEEP SNOW LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ALLOWING FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES,
OLYMPICS, AND CASCADES. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING BY SUNDAY AS
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS NOW IN EFFECT. THIS MILD AIR
WILL CONTINUE INLAND AS WELL WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RUNOFF DUE TO SNOWMELT FROM THE MILD
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLOODING CONCERNS ON SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND
NORTHWEST WYOMING, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL ENCOURAGE INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY, MOVING EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS
BY. ELSEWHERE, THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY START TO SLOWLY MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PROLONGED ARCTIC
BLAST THIS PAST WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
LONGEST FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS EAST ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE 40S ON SATURDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY SUNDAY.
MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR MORE SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE SOUTH LESS PRONE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BUT SEE
A WARMING TREND ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND 50S AND 60S FOR THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, AND
RUNNING GENERALLY 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER SUNDAY. INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S AND
50S. THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY WITH 40S INTO THE MIDWEST AND 50S AND 60S INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST, THE 60S AND 70S FOR
CALIFORNIA, AND 80S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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