099
FXUS01 KWBC 090747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2025
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 09 2025 - 12Z SUN MAY 11 2025
...SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL PERSIST IN
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WEST & NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A PAIR OF SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
NORTHEAST. STARTING IN THE NORTHEAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CARRY A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE FOUND FROM THE CATSKILLS ON EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. BY SATURDAY, THE STRENGTHENING STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A BROAD SWATH OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DOWNEAST
MAINE SEEING THE LAST BANDS OF SHOWERS FINALLY DEPART BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 2
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SPORTING
SATURATED AND SENSITIVE SOILS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR INSTANCES
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY. WPC HAS ISSUED A PAIR OF MARGINAL RISKS
(THREAT LEVEL 1/4) TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND URBANIZED
COMMUNITIES.
FARTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER DAWDLING STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ACTS AS A TRIGGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TODAY, WPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) ISSUED A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) ALONG
FLORIDA'S SPACE COAST AND IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. SPC'S
MARGINAL RISKS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AS WPC'S MARGINAL RISK WITH SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONSLAUGHT OF HEAVY RAIN MEANDERS EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY, PLACING ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA IN THE BEST POSITION TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL
RISK IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONE, THE RAINFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR AS MUCH
AS 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WITNESSING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME CASES OF RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN
STILL TO COME BOTH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE VISIT
WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS MAKING FOR DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS CAUSING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS DIRECTING
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S., TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF WESTERN TEXAS ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL LARGELY BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SEEING
DEPARTURES AS COOL AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME CASES.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN U.S. THAT WILL FOSTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY-TO-MID MAY. SOME RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH WILL CONSUME MORE OF THE WEST,
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME PARTS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS, WHILE MORNING LOWS MAY ALSO CHALLENGE RECORD WARM LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE WEST
BY SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND WILL POTENTIALLY APPROACH 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. NWS'S HEATRISK DOES DEPICT MODERATE TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF MAJOR HEAT POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS SHOWING UP IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/ FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCTS.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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