873
FXUS01 KWBC 290813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
VALID 12Z MON DEC 29 2025 - 12Z WED DEC 31 2025
...POTENT WINTER STORM REACHING PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
...ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY INCLUDING FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM-UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN INTENSE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS FROM THIS
EXPANSIVE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE RANGE FROM HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES, FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A QUICK ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. AND ACROSS
THE SOUTH, AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD BLUSTERY WINDS TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO THESE AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BEFORE WARMER AIR CHANGES THE WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO WELL EXCEED A FOOT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE 2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WPC KEY
MESSAGE AT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
POTENT WINTER STORM. THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, LEADING TO A STEADY
DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
TODAY. BY TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF, ALTHOUGH LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER FOR THE SNOW BELT AREAS DOWNWIND
FROM THE LAKES. FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CHANGE OVER TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS DURING THE DAY. THESE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
(AND BEYOND) AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER BRINGS A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WINTER PRECIPITATION ASIDE, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH
WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO THE RECENT RECORD WARM SPELL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SOUTH. A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA, AND
THEN OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE 30 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NATION'S MIDSECTION.
IN THE WEST, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BROADLY PREVAIL AS THE BIG
STORM IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION TO THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE NEAR THE
TAIL END OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH LOCALLY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD BRING LOCALLY MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
MEANWHILE, THE HUGE CIRCULATION OF THE EXITING CYCLONE IN THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
INTO THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, A QUICK WARM-UP IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
ALBERTA CLIPPER SPREADS MILD AIR DOWN THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS.
KONG/ASHERMAN
AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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