132
FXUS01 KWBC 271625
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1225 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
VALID 00Z TUE APR 28 2026 - 00Z THU APR 30 2026
...SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE UPPER GREAT DOWNWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE GULF MOISTURE.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DOWNWARD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY, CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BE SCATTERED LARGE
HAIL, FLOODING, SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG TO INTENSE
TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON
TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAD ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WHILE SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUES AS DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND DRY FUELS, PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY, WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY, AS PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
MUCH OF TEXAS INTO PARTS OF OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
FOR TUESDAY, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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