196
FXUS01 KWBC 311833
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 01 2026 - 00Z TUE FEB 03 2026
...AN EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING COASTAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS, AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...AN INTENSE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM WILL
SEND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY MORNING...
...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY WARM-UP AFTERWARDS...
A COMPACT, VERY ANOMALOUSLY COLD CORE LOW IS COMING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY CURRENTLY; THE CLASH WITH WARM CARIBBEAN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AIR IS RESULTING IN A FEW SURFACE CYCLONES ACROSS THE
SARGASSO SEA/COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE
LOWS CONSOLIDATE, VERY RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A VERY
POWERFUL GALE/NOR'EASTER; THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF THE
GULF STREAM AND OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE
UPPER-LOW/COLD AIR HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SIZABLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-8" POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE STORM MORE
OUT TO SEA, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIZABLE SNOW ACROSS
NANTUCKET ISLAND, MA AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPE WITH 2-4" TOTALS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE HIGH WINDS, LEADING TO HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR BLOWING SNOW/WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER, BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD, WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NEARLY ALL OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA UNDER EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S-30S, NEARLY 25-30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, DEEP SOUTH,
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. FURTHER RECORDS WILL EXPAND
INTO FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA, BRINGING COLDEST
AIR IN NEARLY A DECADE PLUS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40-50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA/KEYS WILL ALSO HELP TO BREAK LONG-STANDING
RECORDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING
STORM AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS MAY BRING EXTREMELY COLD WIND
CHILLS, INCLUDING SUB-ZERO VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH, AND IN
THE -20S IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BUNDLE UP AND COVER YOUR MOUTH IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE, ENSURE PETS AND
ANIMALS HAVE PROTECTION FROM THE COLD, AND CONTINUE TO TAKE STEPS
TO PREVENT FROZEN PIPES.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN IN THE COASTAL REGIONS, AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTS FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT, AND COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF OREGON
ON SUNDAY.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH OVER-RUNNING LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX CONDITIONS, AT THE
SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND WISCONSIN AND UPPER AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SPOTS OF 1-3" OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AND PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS ARE UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. AFTER CLEARING, THE
AIR WILL WARM DUE TO CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH DAILY HIGHS CLOSE TO OR
EVEN WARMER THAN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, REACHING THE 50S AND LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OR ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GALLINA
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