811  
FXUS01 KWBC 230751  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
351 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 23 2025 - 12Z WED JUN 25 2025  
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS FROM MIDWEST TO THE EAST  
COAST THIS WEEK...  
 
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CENTRAL U.S....  
 
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE  
THIS WEEK. EXTREME HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL EXPAND FROM THE MIDWEST  
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEATRISK IS KNOWN FOR  
BEING RARE AND/OR LONG DURATION WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT  
RELIEF, AND AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR  
ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 100S AND LOWS  
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BREAK NUMEROUS RECORDS OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. DENSE URBAN CENTERS LIKE: COLUMBUS, OH; WASHINGTON,  
DC; AND PHILADELPHIA, PA WILL EXPERIENCE ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT  
HEAT IMPACTS. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING  
EXTREME HEAT. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING. TAKE  
ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE  
FRONTS WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SWATH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANSAS  
TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN/THE U.P. TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SLIGHT  
RISK OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR BOTH AREAS, WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD  
MATERIALIZE OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST  
15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL  
KANSAS TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE  
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, EASTERN NEBRASKA,  
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, NORTHERN MISSOURI, IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY.  
 
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY  
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN  
TEXAS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL. CONDITIONS WORSEN  
WHILE MOISTURE ANOMALIES INCREASE AND SHIFT WESTWARD A BIT ON  
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF  
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. A  
MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO  
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHERE SOME  
OVERLAP IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY OCCUR. BURN  
SCAR AREAS WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE AT PARTICULAR RISK  
OF FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN  
THE WEST BENEATH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND  
ON TUESDAY.  
 
KEBEDE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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