734
FXUS01 KWBC 112000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 00Z THU MAR 12 2026 - 00Z SAT MAR 14 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER/FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MID-TO LATE WEEK...
...CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEK...
...ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HEAT
FOR THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
GULF COAST, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
PROVIDE LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINING A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS THE REGION
FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES. SEVERE WEATHER ASIDE, THE SAME CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL SUPPORT REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH CONTINUED STORM CHANCES IN THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
AND BRINGS AN END TO STORMS FOR ALL BUT FLORIDA.
TO THE NORTH, A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCRETIONS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN, ON THURSDAY, AN INTENSIFYING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF BLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOCUSED ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY WITH
SNOW SPREADING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, WHERE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THURSDAY IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A FRONT IN THE
REGION STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AN ALREADY ACTIVE, WET PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOT ONLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT
INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER MOVES INTO THE REGION. VERY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH TOTALS OF MULTIPLE FEET FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION, PROMPTING BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR
THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SEE WAVES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING. MOST INTERIOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS WILL SEE A MIX OF LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT SOME MORE MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA. ELSEWHERE, GUSTY, WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) THURSDAY.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. CAN ENJOY ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST,
TODAY'S UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS UPWARDS OF 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE
MID-MARCH AVERAGES, AND NEAR OR ABOVE THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR MANY STATIONS. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS, HIGHS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES, 50S AND 60S INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN
CONTRAST TO THE EAST, A STARK WARM-UP WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S
AND 70S. CONDITIONS WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR THE GREAT BASIN, THE 70S AND 80S FOR CALIFORNIA, AND THE 80S
AND 90S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TO THE NORTH, THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN COLDER, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
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