760
FXUS01 KWBC 282001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 00Z WED APR 29 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 01 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEST INTO NORTH
TEXAS...
...ANOTHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS THURSDAY...
...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE WESTERN U.S. TRENDS
WARMER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ARKLATEX, AND INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUAL
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AS HIGH
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE ROBUST STORMS
CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
A SEVERAL INSTANCES OF VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A BROADER ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK EXTENDS EAST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HEAVY DOWNPOUR-PRODUCING STORMS GIVEN
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
BACK-BUILD INTO THE EVENING HOURS LEADING TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS FORECAST ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO TEXAS. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY, SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING STORMS IN NEW ENGLAND, BUT SLOWER MOVEMENT
WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. AN
INCOMING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-WAVE WILL HELP PROMOTE MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS WEST INTO NEW MEXICO WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
COVERS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, ENERGETIC UPPER-FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. THE APPROACH OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-WAVE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ENCOURAGE MORE
WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR THE
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS INTO 80S
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS BY TOMORROW, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 60S TO MID-70S BY THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE GULF COAST. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS WELL AS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEE HIGHS TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE INTERIOR WEST WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR MANY BY
THURSDAY.
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