547
FXUS01 KWBC 040509
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 04 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 06 2026
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH SPREADS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS SETUP FAVORS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A CHANCE FOR CLUSTERING DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA, WHILE A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA, WHERE MUCH OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNSTABLE.
ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ON FRIDAY, AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD, THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND
FURTHER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL WARM MOISTURE NORTHWARD, HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH MAY BRING FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES NEAR THE GULF COAST AND TEXAS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BRINGING FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE AREA.
SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED THEIR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR FRIDAY.
A RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MAY TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WITH THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S TO 90S ACROSS HALF OF EASTERN U.S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. OVER INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB TO THE 80S AND 90S, BUT
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S.
MEANWHILE, A UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND.
OUDIT
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