097
FXUS01 KWBC 280556
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAY 28 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 30 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...AN PACIFIC LOW MAINTAINS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
...SUMMERLIKE HEAT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS LINGER OUT WEST...
A VERY WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATED SOUTH OF A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A WET CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
WHILE THE MORE EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOOD THREATS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE, A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 1/4) REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHERE SOILS REMAIN HEAVILY SATURATED FROM
ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, THOUGH
THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST.
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., A DEEP PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN WHILE MAKING SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A CONCOMITANT
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROADLY FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY, BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WET
MOUNTAIN SNOW. CONCURRENTLY, A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ROBUST SURFACE HEATING AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIVE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO COMMENCE BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MOST SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS, SUPPORTING A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, ENCOMPASSING NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN MAINE.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, A STARK THERMAL CONTRAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK. HOT, SUMMERLIKE HEAT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER
MIDWEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. DAYTIME
HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 80S AND 90S WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. IN
SHARP CONTRAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW OUT WEST, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE 50S AND 60S OUTSIDE OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL
PREVAIL FARTHER EAST FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EAST COAST.
BLANCO-ALCALA
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