032
FXUS01 KWBC 030629
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 03 2026 - 12Z TUE MAY 05 2026
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD...
...A COLD FRONT IS SET TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
...CHILLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES IN THE
NORTHWEST...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY,
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZES, PERSISTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MONDAY AS
THE FRONT LOSES SOME OF ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC LOW WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED LOW-ELEVATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS
HIGH-ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION EXPAND THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON COULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACHING AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES TODAY.
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES, FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN-STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS,
RESULTING IN AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL BRING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGHOUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH-ELEVATION REGIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDWEST, MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED (BELOW 30%), AN ELEVATED
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA TODAY AND MONDAY.
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