291
FXUS01 KWBC 230746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2018
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 23 2018 - 12Z THU OCT 25 2018
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS, SOUTHWEST U.S., AND INTO TEXAS...
..SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
MOISTURE MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, POSSIBLY TIED TO
HURRICANE WILLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND WEST TEXAS TODAY--WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING IN NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION. FURTHERMORE,
LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION, A STATIONARY
FRONT STILL REMAINS OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY--BRINGING RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST; HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
STAY OFFSHORE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK FLASH
FLOODING. AS THURSDAY APPROACHES, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY--WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAIN
TO THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH SNOW IN THE INTERIOR OF
NEW ENGLAND. BY WEDNESDAY, HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD IMPACT NORTHERN
MAINE, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF SNOW WILL SET UP. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST
TODAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THAT PROVINCE IN ADDITION TO SNOW
LIGHT SNOW IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
REINHART
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