195
FXUS01 KWBC 161923
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 17 2026 - 00Z THU FEB 19 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
..SNOW AND RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
..HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
A FRONT OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. MOREOVER, HEAVY
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND BURN SCARS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING, ADVANCING EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND STORM WILL PRODUCE LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE WEST COAST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND THE ROCKIES.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SNOW AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, WHILE RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL
RETURN OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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