106
FXUS01 KWBC 070648
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT THU MAY 07 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAY 07 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 09 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM, ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHEAST...
...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S., WHILE THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MODERATE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND GULF COAST EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF, WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. AS SUCH, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AFTERWARD, ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A STALLING WARM FRONT, LEADING TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
RECOMMENCE FLOWING NORTHWARD, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD ALLOW STORMS TO OVERWHELM LOCAL SOILS AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. AS SUCH,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
FURTHER NORTH, THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MIGRATES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY. MOUNTAINOUS
AND UPSLOPE REGIONS COULD ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD TREK, PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND TO END THE WORK WEEK. HIGH-ELEVATION REGIONS IN THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST COULD SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM IN THE
ROCKIES, A COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
MID-ATLANTIC IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. FOLLOWING THE
HARD FREEZE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE ROCKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE, IN THE WEST, ABOVE-AVERAGE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH VACATES THE
REGION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AROUND THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TO END THE WEEK, WHILE PARTS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RETURN TO EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
BLANCO-ALCALA/ASHERMAN
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