474
FXUS01 KWBC 141904
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 15 2026 - 00Z TUE MAR 17 2026
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING...
...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...
...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AS THE TAIL END OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TAPERS OFF ALONG THE
CASCADES...
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY HEATWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW WILL TAPER DOWN BY EARLY
SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BE ENDING TODAY AS THE MAIN JET STREAM ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INLAND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING FROM CANADA TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY SPREAD THE SNOW
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS INTERACTION IS
A PRECURSOR OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
FORM TODAY OVER WYOMING WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR AND PACIFIC JET
STREAM MEETS. BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE SNOW WILL
FURTHER EXPAND AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF
WYOMING AND INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE INTENSE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE REACHES PEAK INTENSITY AND TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HAS PEAKED TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENTLY DRY AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE BUT THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES. AS THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD, A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
ON SUNDAY. A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE POTENT FRONT, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-SOUTH. BY MONDAY MORNING, SEVERE
WEATHER COULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISKED OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE
PLAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES -10S AND -20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW FREEZING WIND CHILLS
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED WARM UP FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 70S AND
80S FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 90S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SERVE AS A BASELINE FOR EVEN MORE
ANOMALOUS, MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A FRONT
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
KONG/CAMPBELL/ORRISON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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