291  
FXUS01 KWBC 230746  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 23 2018 - 12Z THU OCT 25 2018  
 
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FOUR  
CORNERS, SOUTHWEST U.S., AND INTO TEXAS...  
   
..SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR  
TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY  
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING  
MOISTURE MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, POSSIBLY TIED TO  
HURRICANE WILLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE  
FOUR CORNERS AND WEST TEXAS TODAY--WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION  
OCCURRING IN NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION. FURTHERMORE,  
LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN  
COLORADO. SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION, A STATIONARY  
FRONT STILL REMAINS OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
FRONT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY--BRINGING RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST; HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO  
STAY OFFSHORE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF  
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK FLASH  
FLOODING. AS THURSDAY APPROACHES, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO  
APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY--WITH THE HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS WHERE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAIN  
TO THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH SNOW IN THE INTERIOR OF  
NEW ENGLAND. BY WEDNESDAY, HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD IMPACT NORTHERN  
MAINE, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND  
OF SNOW WILL SET UP. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND  
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN  
VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING  
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST  
TODAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT  
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL  
REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL  
APPROACH BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING HEAVY SNOW  
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THAT PROVINCE IN ADDITION TO SNOW  
LIGHT SNOW IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO  
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER  
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAN  
BE EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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