654
FXUS01 KWBC 131959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 14 2026 - 00Z MON FEB 16 2026
...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTH,CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
EAST COAST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS THIS WEEKEND...
...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRINGS
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO COASTAL ZONES AND VALLEYS AND SNOWFALL TO
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES...
..MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO REGION AND WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO START TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
STORMS ORGANIZATION DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. BY TOMORROW,
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER HIGHER INSTABILITY AND A MORE
HUMID AIR-MASS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A SQUALL LINE
IS FORECAST TO FORM AND BRING STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE STORM PREDICTION HAS
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE LINE
OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON THE DAY SUNDAY.
NOW FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE ONE TO MAYBE AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AN HOUR
RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELL TRAINING. FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE FLASH THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION AS GREATER MOISTURE AND SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS REMAINS, AND THE PRESENCE OF
SENSITIVE TERRAIN OVER THE OZARK MOUNTAIN RANGE. SUNDAY, A LINE OF
STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL
ALSO BRING A RISK FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY SEE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY, CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SNOWFALL
ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL U.S. WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A HIGHER CONTRAST OF 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST
CAN SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S WITH SOME AREAS WITHIN TEXAS
EXPERIENCING LOW 80S, WHILE THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE CLOSE TO NORMAL
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 TO 40S. THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF AND BECOME WETTER BY LATE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION.
WILDER
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