921
FXUS01 KWBC 110618
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAY 11 2026 - 12Z WED MAY 13 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN. ON TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY EVENING, THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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