283
FXUS01 KWBC 250727
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 25 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 27 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...INTENSE HEAT BEGINS TO WANE ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST ON
THURSDAY; BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN TOMORROW; FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND...
DAILY THREATS OF SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AN ABUNDANCE OF
GULF MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FEW
SLOWER-MOVING DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SEVERAL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD QUICKLY TURN SEVERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER TODAY,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRONT, WE ARE
MONITORING A CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER
THIS AREA ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING. AS OF THIS MORNING, A SWATH OF FLOOD WATCHES
EXTEND FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE
OF THIS UPCOMING BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WEST ALSO REMAINS
ACTIVE TODAY, AS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DOWNPOURS CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
IN CONTRAST TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ENCOMPASSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON, HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. THIS
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING 10-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL MAKE FOR A WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. WHILE THE WEST
COOLS DOWN, A DOWNWIND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS SOARING WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100.
MEANWHILE, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER CENTRAL UTAH, NORTHWEST ARIZONA, AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA GIVEN NEARBY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
INCREASING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE APPROACH OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM. ONGOING FIRES ALONG WITH ANY NEW FIRES THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY AND CAN EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST, WHERE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RED
FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ASHERMAN/MILLER
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