851  
FXUS01 KWBC 012005  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2025  
 
VALID 00Z WED JUL 02 2025 - 00Z FRI JUL 04 2025  
 
...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF POTENTIAL  
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA, AND MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON  
THURSDAY...  
 
...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND  
MIDWEST AND BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THESE REGIONS...  
 
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY  
TO REFORM OVER A BOUNDARY FROM THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER TO COASTAL  
NORTH CAROLINA AND POTENTIALLY DROP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF  
RAINFALL. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER  
SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT VERY EFFICIENTLY FOR THE  
DAYS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SAGGING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVING AS A SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC  
LIFT IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZE  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS IN THE TAMPA BAY REGION SOUTHWARD ALONG  
THE SUN COAST MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5-7 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.  
 
FURTHERMORE, THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRING THE  
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ARIZONA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  
A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN  
EFFECT TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AS AMPLE  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER  
SENSITIVE TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS SENSITIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. A  
BROADER MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS FOR THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, TWO AREAS OF MARGINAL RISK ARE IN  
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY.  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT WILL BE  
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS AN ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER RISK DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OVER LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.  
A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. ON  
THURSDAY, THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR STORM  
STRUCTURES TO BRING STRONG WINDS. ALSO, A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE  
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
STRONG STORMS.  
 
MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE TRENDING AVERAGE  
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF JULY ACROSS THE SOUTH  
OWING TO THE ABUNDANCE OF RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE  
SUNSHINE STATE. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE HEAT SPREADING EASTWARD  
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY  
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10-15 DEGREES WARMER  
THAN AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. THIS MAY APPROACH HEAT RISK IN THE MAJOR  
RANGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY, AND  
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE COOL BREAKS.  
 
WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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