811
FXUS01 KWBC 230751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 12Z MON JUN 23 2025 - 12Z WED JUN 25 2025
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS FROM MIDWEST TO THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEK...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL U.S....
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
THIS WEEK. EXTREME HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL EXPAND FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEATRISK IS KNOWN FOR
BEING RARE AND/OR LONG DURATION WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT
RELIEF, AND AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR
ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 100S AND LOWS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BREAK NUMEROUS RECORDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DENSE URBAN CENTERS LIKE: COLUMBUS, OH; WASHINGTON,
DC; AND PHILADELPHIA, PA WILL EXPERIENCE ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT
HEAT IMPACTS. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
EXTREME HEAT. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING. TAKE
ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.
ELSEWHERE, A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONTS WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SWATH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANSAS
TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN/THE U.P. TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR BOTH AREAS, WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
MATERIALIZE OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST
15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, EASTERN NEBRASKA,
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, NORTHERN MISSOURI, IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL. CONDITIONS WORSEN
WHILE MOISTURE ANOMALIES INCREASE AND SHIFT WESTWARD A BIT ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. A
MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHERE SOME
OVERLAP IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY OCCUR. BURN
SCAR AREAS WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE AT PARTICULAR RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE WEST BENEATH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND
ON TUESDAY.
KEBEDE
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