061
FXUS01 KWBC 221811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VALID 00Z WED JUL 23 2025 - 00Z FRI JUL 25 2025
...WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISKS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY..
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAJOR HEAT RISKS, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THESE HEAT RISKS WILL THEN PUSH BACK
INTO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY OVER
80 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER EITHER AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING, EXTREME
HEAT WATCH OR HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE SOUTHEAST, NORTH FLORIDA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HEAT WAVE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
EASTWARD. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RECORDS WITH THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE WITH
THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.
IN CONTRAST TO THE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S....TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY ALL
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHERE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN WHERE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WISE...ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERIES
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-UPPER LAKES REGIONS, AND FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS. ACROSS BOTH REGION,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSING ALONG SEPARATE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION. WITH MOISTURE
VALUES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THESE AREAS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT, SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A
STATIONARY FRONT AND A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED REGIONS. SEVERE
WEATHER WISE, THE RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE
ACTIVE PRECIP AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION, WITH ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PRIMARILY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO HEAVY RAIN
AREAS, THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM EASTERN ARIZONA, ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, COLORADO, AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, WITH RECENT BURN
SCAR AREAS POSING THE THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS FROM ANY HEAVY RAINS
THAT FALL ACROSS THEM.
ORAVEC
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