178
FXUS01 KWBC 270609
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
VALID 12Z THU AUG 27 2026 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH...
...DANGEROUS RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND SOUTHWEST U.S., WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO EASTERN U.S. A SERIES OF NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
RISK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ON FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE, WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND
FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DRAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, CLUSTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS, URBAN AREAS, AND SLOT
CANYONS.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS HEAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH ISOLATED AREAS REACHING
BETWEEN 100-115 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORD-BREAKING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT RECOVERY FROM THE HEAT, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING AND HYDRATION. THEREFORE, EXPECT MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SEE THE
LATEST KEY MESSAGES LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT COOL OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT AND A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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