479
FXUS02 KWBC 031858
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VALID 12Z MON APR 06 2026 - 12Z FRI APR 10 2026
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO MAIN STREAMS. IN A STEADILY PROGRESSIVE AND
UNSETTLING NORTHERN STREAM, A LEADING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL EXIT AS AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ON IT'S HEELS FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. TO
THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER TROUGH/SYSTEM ENERGY WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND
INTO THE WEST BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK,
BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH DRIVES A DECENT SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK.
AFTER THIS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST AS THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
OPEN COMPARED TO THE BETTER CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. WPC PREFERRED
THE SLOWER, MORE CLOSED, SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND EC-AIFS
WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WPC SHIFT PREFERENCES.
THE WPC BLEND FOR TODAYS UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PROGS USED A
BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3 AND 4, GRADUALLY
INCREASING WEIGHTING OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 5-7 TO 60
PERCENT OF THE TOTAL BLEND. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 13Z NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH MAINLY OFFSHORE OF MOST LAND
AREAS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE PASSING OVER FLORIDA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE THERE AND POSSIBLY INTO GULF COASTAL AREAS. CONSISTENT
WITH THE WPC DAY 3-7 PRODUCT, WENT AHEAD WITH A MARGINAL RISK ON
DAY 5/TUESDAY FOR EASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA. A WET PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST GIVEN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY MAY BE REINFORCED INTO
LATER PERIOD WITH FLOW AMPLIFICATION.
FARTHER NORTH, THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN TROUGH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WITH
A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING IN THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ALOFT AND ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE. THEN AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AND INTO
THE WEST, LIFT AND POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO LATER WEEK, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE SIGNAL IS INCREASING
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CONTRARY, THE WEST CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST, WHILE THE WEST COAST CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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