053
FXUS02 KWBC 060607
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 09 2025 - 12Z THU NOV 13 2025
..OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG COLD FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THESE REGIONS. PRECIPITATION, SOME WINTRY, WILL
FOCUS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN DRY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY
MID-NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AND DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG WEST COAST AS WELL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TWO PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, WITH AN EXPECTED
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH A
COUPLE CUTOFF LOWS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
AS THE LEADING CUTOFF LOW INTERACTS AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE SECOND
DEEP TROUGH/LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE WEST AND SOUTH WITH THE SECOND LOW THAN OTHER
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOWER QPF VALUES OVER
THE WEST COAST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN MID-TO-LATE NEXT
WEEK. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, THE WPC
FORECAST FAVORED A MORE EAST AND NORTH POSITION, WITH HIGHER QPF
OVER THE WEST COAST.
GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THE WPC FORECAST WAS COMPOSED OF A
NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID-NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE ADDED TO THE
BLEND IN INCREASING AMOUNTS TO SMOOTH OUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS APPROACH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE REGIONS AND THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION, AND A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AS MEAN UPPER TROUGHING AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST. THEN, ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST MID-
NEXT WEEK AND RENEW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM, A SERIES OF
SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE,
WITH SUB-FREEZING LOWS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
FROST MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, MAYBE THE SINGLE DIGITS, THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE PLAINS EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN MID-NEXT WEEK AS TWO DIFFERENT
UPPER LOWS AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH ONSHORE, AND THERE MAY
BE CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION.
DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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