007
FXUS02 KWBC 011924
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 04 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 08 2026
***PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A +PNA PATTERN. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
BREAKDOWN SOME BY THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RENEWED CHANCES OF
SNOWFALL FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND MILD CONDITIONS OUT WEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY AND ONCE AGAIN
FEATURE DEEP MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT RESOLVING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD, HELPING TO DEEPEN THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH, AND LEADING
TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE NOW AGREES ON A LESS INTENSE
SYSTEM AND MINIMAL DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW ONCE THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE EAST COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM, A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE
ECMWF, SHOWS SPLITTING UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES WITH A SECOND UPPER-
WAVE TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO CANADA, LEADING TO A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ENCOURAGING A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE PICKED UP ON
THIS AS WELL. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS HINTED AT
BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE ECMWF DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM
THE OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ECMWF AIFS, BY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF A MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ROCKIES IN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
TO THE WEST, EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE UPPER-
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF
LOW REMAINS COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE GUIDANCE, THOUGH AT LEAST
INITIALLY THIS HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON WEATHER FOR THE REGION.
THEREAFTER, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A MORE PROMINENT
UPPER-TROUGH REACHING THE WESTERN U.S. AND BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER-
RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS, WHICH HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER MAINTAINING THE
UPPER-RIDGE, HAS STARTED TO TREND THIS WAY AS WELL WITH THE 00/06Z
RUNS.
GOOD INITIAL CLUSTERING LEAD TO A STANDARD COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPDATED WPC
FORECAST. A CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GEFS MEAN WAS ADDED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE BEINGS TO
DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER-ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM, AND THE MEAN ENCAPSULATED THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WELL. THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE FURTHER
REDUCED WITH INCREASED CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GEFS/ECENS MEAN AS
DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH BOTH THE NEXT POTENTIAL CLIPPER- LIKE
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF AIFS IS USED INSTEAD OF THE ECMWF GIVEN
THE DIFFERING HANDLING OF THE UPPER-ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE EXTENDED DURATION OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
HIGHS. OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON
WHERE ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EXIST FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC IS ADVECTED INLAND.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
PUTNAM/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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