643  
FXUS02 KWBC 030700  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2020  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 06 2020 - 12Z WED JUN 10 2020  
 
...GULF COAST TO MID-SOUTH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WITH TROPICAL  
STORM CRISTOBAL...  
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST CLUSTERING HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY  
OVER THE NATION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK,  
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE OVERALL PATTERN  
AMPLIFICATION AND AN EMERGING THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM  
CRISTOBAL. WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED  
FROM A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.  
THIS MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY.  
   
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW WILL FUEL A THREAT FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST/FL AHEAD OF  
CRISTOBAL THIS WEEKEND, REACHING A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST. CRISTOBAL APPROACH AND LANDFALL SHOULD INCREASINGLY  
FOCUS HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS/LOWER OH  
VALLEYS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO UPDATES FROM THE NHC  
ON CRISTOBAL.  
 
MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT  
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEST SAT AND SPAWN CANADIAN PRAIRIE  
CYCLOGENESIS BY SUN. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER  
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INLAND INTO THE WEST. MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A WAVY FRONTAL  
SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION  
SAT-NEXT WED. LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND  
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UNSETTLED WEST TO INCLUDE SOME  
ELEVATION SNOWS FROM THE CASCADES/SIERRA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
GIVEN TROUGH DEPTH. LEAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO  
PERSIST IN THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN PARTICULAR, THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD HAVE SOME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENERGIES REACHING THE N-CENTRAL U.S.  
NEXT WEEK MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND  
CONVECTION/RAINS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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