599
FXUS02 KWBC 100659
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 13 2026 - 12Z SAT JAN 17 2026
..OVERVIEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST UNDER THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN
TROUGH AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FEATURE, AND
NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE MOISTURE TRIES RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOME SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NEAR TO WELL OFFSHORE
THE NORTHEAST COAST IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WARMER THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED
FEATURE DIFFERENCES AND LOCAL FOCUS VARIANCES SLOWLY INCREASING
WITH TIME. FOR THE CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS HAS BEEN
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND OVER ITS PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS SOME IDEA OF A COASTAL TO
OFFSHORE CYCLONE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WPC'S MEDIUM- RANGE
PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS WERE CREATED FROM A DETERMINISTIC 00Z MODEL
BLEND VALID BEFORE ADDING INTO THE MIX GUIDANCE FROM COMPATIBLE
00Z NAEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER ON TO HELP SMOOTH OUT
GROWING MODEL DIFFERENCES. THIS SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST
STARTING POINT AND APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE 01Z NBM AND THE
EARLIER 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING WITHIN MEAN- TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
FAVORABLE LAKE- EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE GULF COAST
REGION AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID-NEXT WEEK AS MOIST
RETURN FLOW ATTEMPTS TO RETURN FROM TIME TO TIME. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CYCLONE NEAR TO WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF A WEATHER
HAZARD THE SYSTEM MIGHT BECOME.
TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR
ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO
MONITOR. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY
BEFORE RETURNING A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY.
DESPITE MEAN-UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN SEASONAL. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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