362
FXUS02 KWNH 310716
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 3 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 7 2026
***PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A +PNA PATTERN. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH. A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RENEWED CHANCES
OF SNOWFALL FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH A NEARLY MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKING WELL
AS A STARTING POINT. HOWEVER, RECENT RUNS OF THE CMC HAVE BEEN
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS, AND THEREFORE THE CMC
WAS WEIGHTED A LITTLE LESS FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATE WEEK LOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, SO AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WORKS WELL FOR THE
POSITION. GREATER DIFFERENCES EXIST BY NEXT SATURDAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THERE
HAS BEEN AN OVERALL SOUTHWARD TREND WITH THE MAIN QPF AXIS FOR THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE NBM APPEARED TOO
LIGHT WITH QPF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALSO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, SO
THESE VALUES WERE RAISED A LITTLE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE
INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT SATURDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE EXTENDED
DURATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE EASTERN U.S., MAINLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITS DAYTIME HIGHS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT COMPARED TO THE EXTREME COLD THAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS.
OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
EXIST FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA WHERE THE
MAIN MOISTURE FLUME WILL BE.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE
MID-SOUTH, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE RETURN. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOWS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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