090
FXUS02 KWNH 220730
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 25 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
RIDGE AND TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL CARRY FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THEM.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAY MAY BE THURSDAY, WHEN HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY WHILE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK, THOUGH CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE NORTHERN TIER NEXT WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF MODEST PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST UNDER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT IN A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN.
SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH, ALONG
WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTS/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. MOST
DYNAMICAL AND AI MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PROVIDING FORCING
FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z CMC IS THE PRIMARY
EXCEPTION, WHICH HAS A SOUTHERN FRONTAL LOW MORE DOMINANT AND DOES
NOT HAVE QPF IN THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS IS FARTHEST INLAND WITH
THE LOW TRACK, FOR POSSIBLE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. OLDER RUNS OF
THE AIFS AND AIGFS HAVE BEEN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO SHOW LIMITED
QPF IN THE NORTHEAST, BUT DID SHOW A WESTERN TREND AT 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR HOPEFULLY SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THIS LOW TRACK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO DEEPEN IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. THEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FARTHER
WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PACIFIC AND ALASKA MODEL DIFFERENCES
AFFECTING THE PATTERN IN THE NORTHWEST. AI MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN THE WESTERN EC/CMC AND EASTERN GFS WITH THE POSITION OF AN
UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT
SUNDAY. THE MODELS THAT ARE WEST WITH THE PACIFIC LOW ALLOW FOR
MORE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST, WHILE THE AIFS/AIGFS AND THE GFS
(THOUGH THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER EAST) MAINTAIN RIDGING THERE.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL MODEL BLEND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH INCREASING PROPORTIONS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSED, REACHING HALF BY DAY 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
MODEST PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING NORTHERN TIER SNOW, IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY COULD REACH THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUS RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS, WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
LIKELY 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. A MARGINAL RISK IS
PROPOSED FOR THE DAY 5/THURSDAY ERO. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY NEUTRAL THERE (DRIER FARTHER WEST AND FARTHER SOUTH), BUT
THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FLOODING. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH, WINTRY WEATHER IS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE UNCERTAIN LOW TRACK. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA/FLORIDA. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD LESSEN INTO LATE WEEK, BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM, THE MEAN
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS CONCERNS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER A POTENTIAL THREAT.
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOSTLY BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 80S IN TEXAS AT
TIMES AND OVER 90F IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM A
CHILLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA, THE EAST
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SPREAD BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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