575
FXUS02 KWNH 070801
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 10 2026 - 12Z TUE APR 14 2026
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL, ENSEMBLE AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE NOW THROUGH
THE 00 UTC CYCLE HAVE AGAIN CONVERGED UPON A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERN EVOLUTION, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL, FAVOR A BROAD GUIDANCE BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON COMPATIBLE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CENTRIC
SOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLENDING PROCESS IS DESIGNED TO HELP
MITIGATE LINGERING SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM TIMING AND STRENGTH
VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY THAT HAS
BEEN MOST EVIDENT WITH ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST. THIS FORECAST PLAN SEEMS WELL IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS GUIDANCE AND WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LEAD NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A TRAILING FRONT WORKS DOWN OVER
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND BACK TO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE A WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) DAY
4/FRIDAY MARGINAL RISK AREA IS IN PLACE GIVEN POOLING MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A LINGERING FRONT OVER THE GULF
COMBINED WITH A BETTER-DEFINED FRONTAL WAVE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM WELL EAST OF FLORIDA MAY PROLONG A WET
PATTERN INTO LATE WEEK WITH PROTRACTED EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW.
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER FLORIDA, BUT MAY ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT
AFFECT SOUTHEAST U.S./GULF COASTAL AREAS.
WELL UPSTREAM, AN UNSETTLING/COOLING EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL WORK INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH GROWING MODERATE SHOWER
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS A MAIN KICKER
SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. EXPECT SUPPORT
FOCUS FOR SOME NORTHWEST U.S. RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL THEN WORK
INTO CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD INLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASING SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTIVE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WEEKEND FOCUS WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM AS AMPLE MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. A DAY 5/SATURDAY ERO MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF
THREAT MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY THERE AND AS THE EMERGING PRECIPITION
SHIELD EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S./MIDWEST WITH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM EJECTION TO MONITOR. IN THIS PATTERN, DOWNSTREAM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMINATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW A
WARMING TREND TIME TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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