050
FXUS05 KWBC 201346
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2025 SEASONAL OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF AND EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AS
WELL AS FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GREATEST ODDS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BOTTOM TWO THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW-NORMAL
SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR A SMALL AREA OF WEST-CENTRAL
ALASKA.
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE AMJ 2025 OUTLOOK FORECASTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH AND GREAT PLAINS. THE HIGHEST ODDS ARE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AREAS OF
THE STATE WHILE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR COASTAL
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED WHERE FORECAST INFORMATION IS IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT OR CLIMATE SIGNALS ARE WEAK OR SHOW LITTLE HISTORICAL FORECAST
SKILL. IN THESE AREAS, THE ODDS OF ALL THREE CATEGORIES ARE SIMILAR TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH A LA NINA ADVISORY REMAINS ACTIVE, OCEANIC CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH
LA NINA HAVE WEAKENED DURING FEBRUARY 2025, AND ENSO NEUTRAL IS FAVORED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MONTHS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN, HOWEVER, STILL REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A LA NINA EVENT
AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION
REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE DATE LINE ALONG THE EQUATOR WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
TO THE WEST NEAR THE MARITIME CONTINENT. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY EASTERLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EVIDENT NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE LATEST MONTHLY AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN NEGATIVE
(LESS THAN -0.5 DEGREES C) FROM ABOUT 160E TO 140W IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO SST INDICES VARY WIDELY FROM THE NINO4 TO NINO1+2
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE NINO4 INDEX REMAINS AT -0.4 DEGREES C, NINO3.4, NINO3 AND
NINO1+2 CURRENTLY RANGE FROM +0.3 TO +1.3 DEGREES C.
AN ACTIVE MJO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN
ACROSS INDONESIA TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WELL INTO
APRIL. IF THE EVENT EVOLVES AS FORECAST, THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING OF
EQUATORIAL WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SSTS AND NINO INDICES DUE TO A POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AS THE ENHANCED CONVECTION PHASE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
IN ADDITION, A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (SSW) EVENT OCCURRED ON MARCH 9-10,
2025 WITH RECENT FORECASTS OF POTENTIAL COUPLING BETWEEN THE STRATOSPHERE AND
TROPOSPHERE DURING APRIL WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST MONTH
OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CONUS.
WITH RESPECT TO LAND SURFACE STATES, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE CONUS WITH AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXPERIENCING SEVERE
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4 IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR). MOREOVER, BELOW
NORMAL SNOWFALL OCCURRED THIS PAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHEAST.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN SSTS (I.E. NINO3.4 INDEX), ARE SIMILAR IN
INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF DECREASING NEGATIVE VALUES APPROACHING NEAR ZERO
NINO3.4 INDEX ANOMALY THROUGH THE SPRING AND SUMMER SEASONS. THE SUITE OF NMME
AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE QUITE
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH JAS 2025 WITH NINO3.4
INDEX VALUES WITHIN A RANGE FROM -0.5 DEGREES C TO EFFECTIVELY ZERO ANOMALY. A
FEW MEMBERS FORECAST SLIGHTLY POSITIVE VALUES OVER THIS PERIOD.
THE CPC NINO3.4 SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST THAT INCLUDES SOME STATISTICAL
MODELS AS WELL IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ABOVE, BUT DIVERGES IN THE LATE SUMMER
AND AUTUMN TOWARD PREDICTIONS OF INCREASINGLY MORE NEGATIVE NINO3.4 INDEX
ANOMALIES. THESE ANOMALIES MINIMIZE DURING EARLY WINTER 2025-2026 IN WEAK LA
NINA TERRITORY BUT WITH VERY HIGH FORECAST SPREAD.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
LINGERING POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM LA NINA ARE CONSIDERED FOR THE AMJ 2025 SEASON
AS WAS CONSIDERATION OF IMPACTS FROM THE RECENT SSW AND CURRENT ACTIVE MJO -
NOTING INFLUENCE IS FRONT LOADED WITHIN THE SEASON ESPECIALLY IN APRIL. SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTED TO MODIFYING PROBABILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS OF
THE CONUS AS WAS THE DEFICIT IN CURRENT SNOW COVER AND DEPTH IN SOME NORTHERN
AREAS.
PARTICIPANT MEMBERS AND AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE NMME AND C3S DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITES CONTRIBUTE TO THE OUTLOOKS AS DOES STATISTICAL AND HYBRID
FORECAST TOOLS SUCH AS CBAM. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WHICH ARE STRONGLY POSITIVE
(EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN AMJ) FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR MANY LEADS
FROM SPRING INTO AUTUMN 2025, PLAYED A CONSIDERABLE ROLE IN MANY OF THE
OUTLOOKS.
THE ENSO-OCN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FROM LATE AUTUMN 2025 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEADS INTO 2026. THE ENSO CONDITION IS
APPROXIMATED BY THE CPC NINO3.4 SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST - NOTING LARGE
SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY GIVEN FORECASTS OF ENSO INITIATING AT THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. ODDS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED IN THESE CASES.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - AMJ 2025 TO AMJ 2026
TEMPERATURE
THE PREPARATION OF THE AMJ 2025 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CONSIDERED A NUMBER OF
FACTORS INCLUDING POTENTIAL RESIDUAL LA NINA IMPACTS, AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LATEST LAND SURFACE STATES (SOIL MOISTURE DEPARTURES AND ANOMALOUS
SNOW COVER AND DEPTH) AND LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS. IN ADDITION, SOME
CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO THE RECENT SSW AND ONGOING MJO EVENT. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERWHELMINGLY CONSISTENT AND STRONG WARMER THAN NORMAL
SIGNALS FROM THE NMME AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, OTHER STATISTICAL
FORECAST TOOLS, QUITE DRY LAND SURFACE CONDITIONS AND STRONG POSITIVE LONG TERM
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST FORECAST ODDS FOR THE INTERIOR WEST,
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BELOW-NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
THE BASIS FOR THE EC FORECAST FOR THE SMALL REGION ALONG THE COAST IN THIS
AREA.
POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON IMPACTS FROM A RESIDUAL LA NINA SIGNAL, THE SSW (PACIFIC
NORTHWEST), THE MJO (NORTH CENTRAL U.S.), NEGATIVE LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS
(APRIL, NORTH CENTRAL U.S.) AND CBAM HYBRID GUIDANCE OFFSET WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SIGNALS FROM ANOMALOUS DRY AND SNOW FREE LAND SURFACE STATES
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. SO EC IS FORECAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES FROM THE MODELS SEEMS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY OVERDONE IN THIS REGION GIVEN ALL THE FACTORS AT PLAY AND MAY
SUFFER FROM SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE TEMPERATURE BIAS RELATED TO LONG TERM TRENDS
AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY LAND SURFACE STATES AT THESE LATITUDES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR ALASKA, ONLY SMALL TILTS AWAY FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR WEST CENTRAL ALASKA ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE SUPPORTED BY
EARLY SEASON IMPACTS FROM THE SSW EVENT AND SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE ECMWF SYSTEM. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA REGION.
FROM THE MAY-JUN-JUL (MJJ) 2025 SEASON TO EARLY AUTUMN, THE MAJORITY OF
FORECAST TOOLS INCLUDING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LONG-TERM
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND EXPANSIVE ANOMALOUSLY DRY LAND SURFACE STATES
SUPPORT INCREASING ODDS AND COVERAGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AUG-SEP-OCT (ASO) SEASON. OVER THIS MULTI-SEASON PERIOD, THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN U.S., SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FROM ASO 2025 THROUGH FEB-MAR-APR (FMA) 2026 ARE BASED
ON THE ENSO-OCN FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH UTILIZES THE FAVORED ENSO PHASE AND
MAGNITUDE AND LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS VIEWED BY OCN.
FOR ALASKA, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FROM MJJ 2025 THROUGH ASO 2025 ARE
PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. SUBSEQUENT LEADS FROM
SON 2025 ARE BASED MAINLY ON LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS ESPECIALLY FOR SON
AND OND 2025 AND FMA AND MAM 2026.
PRECIPITATION
FOR THE AMJ 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR DEFICIENT SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS WITH THIS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM NEGATIVE (DRIER) LONG TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS. DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA
AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL RESIDUAL
LA NINA IMPACTS EARLY IN THE SEASON AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE PRIMARY
SUPPORT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTED REGIONS.
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE FORECAST TOOL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
GULF COAST SO EC IS FORECAST IN THIS REGION.
FOR THE MJJ 2025 THROUGH SON 2025 SEASONS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE START AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND LATER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY ASO 2025 BEFORE FADING BY OND 2025. CONSISTENT AND STRONG SIGNALS
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NMME AND C3S MODEL GUIDANCE AND
NEGATIVE LONG TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION.
WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED WETNESS, POSITIVE (WETTER) LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ELEVATE THE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM MJJ 2025 TO
PRIMARILY THE LOWER ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SON 2025. BELOW NORMAL WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND SO DRIER THAN NORMAL LAND SURFACE STATES AND EXPECTATIONS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SPRING FAVORS MORE EFFICIENT HEATING IN
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY ONSET AND/OR MORE ROBUST THAN
NORMAL MONSOON CIRCULATION. SO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR AN
AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM MJJ 2025 THROUGH ASO 2025 MAXIMIZING IN LIKELIHOOD
AND FORECAST COVERAGE IN JAS 2025.
A CHANGE FROM THE PRECEDING SET OF OUTLOOKS RELEASED IN FEBRUARY IS THE
FORECAST OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA PRIMARILY
BASED ON A CHANGE IN DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NMME AND C3S SYSTEMS ARE
CONSIDERABLY WETTER FOR ALASKA THIS MONTH SO ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE
CURRENT SET OF OUTLOOKS.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FROM OND 2025 THROUGH FEB-MAR-APR (FMA) 2026 ARE
BASED ON THE ENSO-OCN FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH UTILIZES THE FAVORED ENSO PHASE
AND MAGNITUDE AND LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS TAKEN FROM OCN.
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON APR 17 2025
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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