536
FXUS05 KWBC 181331
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONTINUES TO BE IN A LA NIñA STATE,
WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST LEAD OF THE
CPC SEASONAL OUTLOOK. THE CPC ENSO OUTLOOK INDICATES GREATER THAN A TWO-THIRDS
CHANCE OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FOR THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) 2026
SEASON.
THE JFM 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST, SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NORTH AMERICA MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TIMESCALE
TRENDS AND A CONSOLIDATION OF SEASONAL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE MAINLAND AND FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, RESULTING FROM THE CANONICAL IMPACT OF LA NIñA AND SUPPORTED
BY THE INTERNATIONAL MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE (C3S IMME). THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF
THE JFM 2026 SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA NIñA COMBINED WITH DECADAL TIMESCALE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, SOUTH TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WEST TEXAS,
SOUTH GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL
SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR REMAINING AREAS, INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE JFM 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, CONSISTENT WITH CANONICAL LA
NIñA IMPACTS AND SUPPORTED BY THE NMME FORECAST. THE JFM 2026 SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH THE CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA
NIñA AND SUPPORTED BY THE C3S IMME FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY, WITH THE PROBABILITY EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT IN SOME AREAS, FOR THE MIDWEST, FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK.
FOR THE REMAINING AREAS, WHERE POSSIBLE SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE PREDICTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EC IS INDICATED.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
THE MOST RECENT SEASONAL MEAN NIñO 3.4 INDEX VALUE FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH
NOVEMBER IS -0.6 DEGREES CELSIUS (C), AND THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY MEAN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALY FOR THE NIñO 3.4 REGION IS -0.7 DEGREES C,
INDICATING A WEAK LA NIñA. HOWEVER, A STRONG POSITIVE SST ANOMALY EXCEEDING +1
DEGREE C EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
GREATER THAN +0.5 DEGREES C ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL
(200-HPA) WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA, WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES
WERE EASTERLY OVER ONLY SMALL AREAS OF THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE
OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSIST AT DEPTHS FROM 150 METERS TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH, NEGATIVE TOTAL SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED SINCE NOVEMBER WITH INCREASING POSITIVE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES AT DEPTHS OF 50 TO 200 METERS IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT.
NEGATIVE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) STATISTICAL FORECAST FOR THE JFM SEASON
FROM THE PRESENT SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY PATTERN PREDICTS ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR PARTS OF THE WEST AND POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RELATIVE
TO CLIMATOLOGY IS PREDICTED FOR MOST OF TEXAS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT CORRELATED WITH LA NIñA IMPACTS.
POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, THE SOUTH
COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS. NEGATIVE SST
ANOMALIES ARE PRESENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT COASTAL
SST ANOMALIES MAY INFLUENCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OF ADJACENT AREAS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
SST FORECASTS FROM THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS AND FROM THE CA STATISTICAL MODEL
PREDICT SST ANOMALIES NEAR THE -0.5 DEGREE C THRESHOLD FOR LA NIñA FOR THE NIñO
3.4 REGION IN THE JFM 2026 SEASON, FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN THE NEGATIVE
ANOMALY TOWARDS ZERO IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS. THE MARKOV AND CANONICAL
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT AN ANOMALY NEARER TO -1
DEGREE C IN JFM 2026 BEFORE DECREASING TOWARDS ZERO. THE SPREAD OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS NARROWER THAN AVERAGE INDICATING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. A CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECASTS FOR THE NIñO
3.4 REGION PREDICTS A LIKELY TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN
NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREES C IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BOREAL SPRING SEASONS. DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CA STATISTICAL
MODEL PREDICT INCREASINGLY POSITIVE NIñO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES FOR NEXT SUMMER,
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE EL NIñO. THE EMERGENCE OF EL NIñO CONDITIONS IS
CONSIDERED SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN THE PERSISTENCE OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
IN THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) SUMMER SEASON, ACCORDING TO THE CPC ENSO
OUTLOOK, WHILE LA NIñA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNLIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IN NIñO
3.4 SST FORECASTS INCREASES FOR THE SUMMER SEASON AND LONGER LEADS.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
FORECAST TOOLS DERIVED FROM THE NMME, INCLUDING CALIBRATED VERSIONS, SUCH AS
THE PROBABILITY ANOMALY CORRELATION (PAC) AND THE CALIBRATION, BRIDGING AND
MERGING (CBAM), WHICH CALIBRATES THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS USING BAYESIAN
JOINT PROBABILITY (BJP) MODELS, AS WELL AS GENERATING STATISTICAL OR BRIDGING
BJP MODELS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FROM DYNAMICAL MODEL NIñO 3.4
ANOMALY FORECAST PREDICTORS. AN ENSO-OCN FORECAST TOOL IS USED TO REPRESENT THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) AND DECADAL
TIMESCALE TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION, USING THE OPTIMUM CLIMATE
NORMAL (OCN). LA NIñA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE JFM AND FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL
(FMA) 2026 SEASONS, AS THE PREDICTED SST ANOMALY PATTERN IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION SIMILAR TO A LA NIñA STATE.
THE FORECAST OF A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS MEANS THAT LONGER
TIMESCALE DECADAL VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY
THE LARGEST PREDICTABLE SIGNAL FOR THE SEASONAL FORECASTS, FOLLOWING
DIMINISHING IMPACTS OF THE CURRENT LA NIñA IN THE SPRING OF 2026. DECADAL
VARIABILITY AND TRENDS ARE DETERMINED FROM THE OCN, CALCULATED FROM THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 15-YEAR PERIOD AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION AND THE AVERAGE FOR THE CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD FROM 1991-2020.
OUTLOOKS FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER SEASONS ARE IN PART INFLUENCED BY THE
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EL NIñO OR NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO THE
UNLIKELIHOOD OF LA NIñA CONDITIONS. CONSOLIDATIONS OF MULTIPLE STATISTICAL
TOOLS AND WHEN AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS THAT UTILIZES PAC CALIBRATION
ARE USED THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOKS FROM JFM 2026 TO JFM 2027.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JFM 2026 TO JFM 2027
TEMPERATURE
THE JFM 2026 SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHWEST COAST, SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY THE NMME AND CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FMA 2026 SEASON, CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE
CURRENT LA NIñA IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN JFM AND FMA 2026, DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENT
IMPACTS OF A LA NIñA-LIKE PATTERN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR JFM
THROUGH FMA 2026 ARE RELATED TO LA NIñA IMPACTS. AS THE AREAS OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE SPRING SEASONS, THE INFLUENCE OF DECADAL
TRENDS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR APRIL-MAY-JUNE
(AMJ) 2026 THROUGH JFM 2027 PRIMARILY RELY ON THE ENSO-OCN STATISTICAL
FORECAST, RESULTING FROM THE SST CONSOLIDATION NIñO 3.4 FORECAST AND THE OCN.
STRONG DECADAL TREND SIGNALS RELATIVE TO SEASONAL VARIABILITY LEAD TO
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND
THE NORTHEAST FOR WARM SEASONS FROM AMJ 2026 THROUGH OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER
(OND) 2026. EC IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) SEASON, WHERE DECADAL TRENDS ARE WEAK, BUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN INCLUDING ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AUTUMN OF NEXT
YEAR. DECADAL TRENDS AND COVERAGE OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
DECREASE BY NEXT WINTER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES CONFINED
TO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND
THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
PRECIPITATION
THE JFM THROUGH MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE NMME AND THE
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ONLY IN THE JFM
2026 SEASON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
RELATED TO LA NIñA IMPACTS AND SUPPORTED BY THE NMME FORECAST. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR A SMALL AREA OF
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2026 SEASON AND EMERGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA IN LONGER LEADS AFTER
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) 2026, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN JFM AND FMA 2026, SUPPORTED BY THE C3S IMME DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS AND CONSISTENT WITH CANONICAL LA NIñA IMPACTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE MIDWEST FROM JFM THROUGH MAM
2026, PARTLY RELATED TO PERSISTENT LA NIñA IMPACTS AS PREDICTED BY THE C3S
IMME. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN JFM 2026, PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED NMME MODEL FORECASTS
AND CANONICAL LA NIñA IMPACTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN JFM
THROUGH MAM 2026 AND FOR MUCH OF TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST IN JFM AND FMA 2026, CONSISTENT WITH NMME FORECASTS AND LA NIñA
IMPACTS. IN THE AMJ THROUGH JAS 2026 SEASONS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE EAST, RELATED TO DECADAL TRENDS AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS. THROUGH REMAINING LEADS
FROM AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2026 THROUGH JFM 2027, SMALL AREAS OF
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENTIRELY
RELATED TO WHERE DECADAL TREND SIGNALS EMERGE FROM STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON JAN 15 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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