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FXUS05 KWBC 161231
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE TRANSITION FROM LA
NINA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS NOW COMPLETE. ANOTHER TRANSITION, THIS TIME FROM
ENSO-NEUTRAL TO EL NINO, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MAY-JUN-JUL (MJJ)
2026 SEASON (61 PERCENT CHANCE), WITH EL NINO LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF 2026.
THE MAY-JUN-JUL (MJJ) 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
A TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-70 PERCENT) OF ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES.
THE MJJ 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA, THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF REGION.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH CATEGORY
OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
DURING MARCH, ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS EMERGED, ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR-AVERAGE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. DURING THE MAY-JUN-JUL (MJJ) 2026 SEASON, EL NINO IS LIKELY TO EMERGE
(61 PERCENT CHANCE) AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS YEAR. THE
LATEST WEEKLY NINO 3.4 INDEX VALUE IS -0.3 DEG C. THE EQUATORIAL SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE INDEX (AVERAGED FROM 180 TO 100W) INCREASED FOR THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE
MONTH, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC TO A DEPTH OF AT LEAST 250-300 METERS. WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AT LOW LEVELS (850-HPA) AND WERE
EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT HIGH LEVELS (200-HPA). CONVECTION WAS
NEAR-AVERAGE OVER THE DATE LINE, WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
INDONESIA. COLLECTIVELY, THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM REFLECTED
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
NEARLY ALL SST ANOMALY FORECASTS FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EL NINO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PREDICTED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF SUCH AN EVENT. THE CPC
SST CONSOLIDATION NINO 3.4 FORECAST REACHES THE THRESHOLD ANOMALY VALUE OF EL
NINO (+0.5 DEG C) DURING THE AMJ SEASON, PEAKS AT +1.2 DEG C (A "MODERATE EL
NINO") DURING OND 2026, AND GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF AFTER THAT, RETURNING TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL BY FMA 2027. THE ERROR BARS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
BECOME QUITE LARGE BY THE ONSET OF AUTUMN 2026, SO THIS ALSO MUST BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT. THE CFSV2 CURVE HAS THE GREATEST SLOPE OF THE CONSOLIDATION
CONSTITUENTS, RAPIDLY PEAKING NEAR +2.1 DEG C (A "VERY STRONG" EL NINO) BY OND
2026. THE NMME AND IMME/C3S ENSEMBLE AVERAGES PASS THROUGH THE EL NINO
THRESHOLD VALUE OF +0.5 DEG C PRIOR TO MAY. CPC'S OFFICIAL ENSO PROBABILITIES
CHART FAVORS ENSO-NEUTRAL THROUGH THE AMJ SEASON (80 PERCENT CHANCE), WITH EL
NINO FAVORED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PHASE OF ENSO DURING MJJ (61 PERCENT
CHANCE). THE ODDS FOR A WARM EVENT RAPIDLY CLIMB TO NEAR 90 PERCENT BY JAS AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST NDJ 2026-27. CPC ENSO STRENGTH PROBABILITIES (ISSUED
IN APRIL 2026) DEPICT ODDS NEAR 50 PERCENT THAT THE RONI (RELATIVE OCEANIC
NINO INDEX) WILL RISE INTO EITHER THE STRONG (+1.5C <= RONI < +2.0C) OR VERY
STRONG (RONI >= +2.0C) CATEGORIES DURING NDJ 2026. EL NINO IS LIKELY BECAUSE
OF INCREASING SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AND RECENT WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC THAT TRIGGERED OCEANIC KELVIN WAVES AND DOWNWELLING. AN IMPORTANT
CAVEAT WITH THIS OUTLOOK IS THE NECESSITY OF CONTINUED WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER
MONTHS, WHICH IS NOT ASSURED.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
PHYSICAL SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) CLIMATE DRIVERS CONSIDERED IN THIS SET
OF OUTLOOKS INCLUDE ANOMALOUS LAND SURFACE STATES, IN PARTICULAR ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS DEFICITS IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CURRENT (APRIL) SOIL MOISTURE AND MJJ TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION WERE CONSIDERED, AS WERE ENSO COMPOSITES AND REGRESSIONS. THOUGH
EL NINO DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING JJA, ACTUAL IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
ARISE BY JAS. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE SO-CALLED SPRING
PREDICTABILITY BARRIER, A PERIOD OF LESS-SKILLFUL SST ANOMALY FORECASTS. THIS
"BARRIER" MAY BE RELATED TO AN ANNUAL RESET OR TRANSITION PERIOD OF THE GLOBAL
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM. EL NINO COMPOSITES AND REGRESSIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
BE RELIABLE FROM JAS ONWARDS THROUGH LATE AUTUMN.
THE NMME AND COPERNICUS CLIMATE SUITE (C3S) DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS ARE UTILIZED AS WELL AS EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT FROM A
BETA VERSION OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST SYSTEM (SFS, FUTURE SYSTEM TO REPLACE THE
CFSV2). STANDARD STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS, OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION GUIDANCE, AND LONG TERM TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS
CONTRIBUTED STRONGLY TO THE OUTLOOKS AT VARIOUS LEADS AND LOCATIONS. IN
PARTICULAR, THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ANCHORED TO SST (CA-SST) AND A COMPANION
ANCHORED TO SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES (CAS) PLAYED A SOMEWHAT LARGER ROLE THAN
NORMAL IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS. THE CALIBRATED, BRIDGING, AND MERGING (CBAM)
TOOL WAS ALSO USED.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MJJ 2026 TO MJJ 2027
TEMPERATURE
THE MJJ 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND ALL OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OF 60-70 PERCENT ARE DEPICTED OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THE ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST ARE SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS AND TOOLS (INCLUDING THE SFS BETA), AS WELL AS TRENDS. THE
WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS WARMTH CORRELATES WELL WITH BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE,
SNOW PACK DEFICITS, AND NATURAL ANALOGS WHICH ARE ANCHORED ON PACIFIC SSTS. THE
ANALOGS USE A NEAREST NEIGHBOR ANALYSIS AND 12 MONTHS OF SST OBSERVATIONS,
ASSIGNING EQUAL WEIGHT TO EACH OF THE FOUR NINO REGIONS. OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST, A SECONDARY MAXIMUM FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED (50-60
PERCENT). THE CALIBRATED NMME, CBAM, CFSV2, ENSO-OCN AND STATISTICAL AND FINAL
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS SUPPORT THIS SECONDARY MAXIMUM, IN ADDITION TO VERY LOW
SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE, FROM
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THIS BROAD REGION OF FAVORED EC IS WHERE
MANY MODELS AND TOOLS SUPPORT VERY WEAK TEMPERATURE SIGNALS OR CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF (FAVORED) SOON-TO-EMERGE EL
NINO CONDITIONS, WITH NON-WARMTH FAVORED DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS.
DURING THE NEXT THREE SEASONS (JJA, JAS, AND ASO) THE SIGNAL FOR ANOMALOUS
WARMTH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS DOMINANT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, GULF COAST STATES, AND EAST COAST STATES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE GREATEST OVER THE WEST AND THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS BACKED BY THE CBAM AND MANY OF THE OTHER TOOLS. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
A SOON-TO-DEVELOP EL NINO, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
JAS AND ASO GENERALLY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AREA. THIS COOL PREFERENCE IS BASED LARGELY ON ENSO REGRESSION
RELATIONSHIPS. TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIPS WITH SOIL MOISTURE WERE ALSO
CONSIDERED THROUGH THESE SEASONS. IN ALASKA, AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
ARE FAVORED TO BE RELATIVELY WARM, WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE VARIES FROM DIFFERENT
SPATIAL COVERAGES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO EC. MOVING INTO THE AUTUMN
MONTHS, THE MAPS BEGIN TO ASSUME THE SHAPE OF FAMILIAR EL NINO COMPOSITES,
WITH THE SOUTHERN CONUS TRANSITIONING FROM FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
WIDESPREAD EC, WHILE THE NORTHERN CONUS RETAINS THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH. THIS
PATTERN BROADLY PERSISTS THROUGHOUT DJF 2026-27 AND JFM 2027, THE HEIGHT OF THE
WINTER SEASON. EL NINO ALSO TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT ALASKA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. MOVING THROUGH LATE WINTER AND
EARLY SPRING 2027, THE OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
AREA OF EC ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, WITH A RETURN TO RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AS FAVORED BY THE ENSO-OCN TOOL AND THE
STATISTICAL CONSOLIDATION. LONGER-TERM TRENDS GENERALLY FAVOR
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION
THE MJJ 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK MODESTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION. THIS HAS THE SUPPORT OF CBAM, CFSV2, THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION, C3S,
NCAR_CCSM4, CMCC, AND THE 15-YEAR OCN TREND TOOL. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO FAVORED IN THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A
FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON. WHAT PRECIPITATION FALLS IN THE MONTH OF JULY IS
FORECAST TO CARRY THE MJJ SEASON AS A WHOLE, AS MAY AND JUNE TEND TO BE RATHER
DRY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. APPROXIMATELY
ONE-HALF OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO,
IN ADDITION TO HISTORICAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (THOUGH TRENDS DO NOT
FAVOR THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE RELATIVE DRYNESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS).
IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE, WITH BELOW-NORMAL SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE, WHICH
INCLUDES MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE CONUS, EC IS FAVORED.
DURING THE NEXT TWO SEASONS (JJA AND JAS), RELATIVE DRYNESS IS FAVORED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND (BY JAS)
FLORIDA. FOR THE NORTHWEST, LONG-TERM TRENDS FAVOR RELATIVE DRYNESS QUITE
STRONGLY, AS DO THE STATISTICAL AND FINAL CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS. THESE SAME
TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
JJA, IN ADDITION TO THE UNCALIBRATED NMME, UNCALIBRATED C3S, CFSV2, AND THE
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUING DROUGHT. IN ASO 2026, THE C3S AND OCN TREND TOOL ARE
PRIMARY SUPPORTERS OF THE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHWEST, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FAVORED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE JJA, JAS, AND
ASO SEASONS, IN EXPECTATION OF A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SETUP. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST DURING THESE SAME SEASONS, WELL SUPPORTED BY THE OCN TREND TOOL.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE SUMMER IS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) ACTIVITY NORMALLY GETS DISRUPTED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
CARIBBEAN SEA BY INCREASED 200-HPA WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. THIS
IS WHY THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NUDGED INLAND
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOVING INTO THE AUTUMN MONTHS, THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS BEGIN TO TAKE ON THE FAMILIAR RESEMBLANCE OF EL NINO COMPOSITES. THE
CANONICAL DICHOTOMY OF ANOMALOUS WETNESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS AND EXPANDING AREAS OF ANOMALOUS DRYNESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY LATE FALL AND WINTER. THE TWO PRIMARY REGIONS OF
FAVORED DRYNESS INCLUDE THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS (WITH THE SIGNAL BECOMING MORE
CONCENTRATED INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY WINTER), AND OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE SAME PERIOD. BY LATE WINTER, ALL THAT REMAINS (IN AN
ANOMALOUS SENSE) IS A FAIRLY SMALL REGION OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH THEN VARIES IN AERIAL EXTENT DURING THE REMAINING
SEASONS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.
IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE SUMMER AND AUTUMN MONTHS. BY DJF 2026-27 AND
JFM 2027, EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVOR A THIN SLIVER OF RELATIVE WETNESS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA. EC IS DEEMED THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
OUTCOME DURING FMA 2027, WITH HISTORICAL TRENDS FAVORING A RETURN OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND ENVIRONS DURING THE
SPRING MONTHS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON MAY 21 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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