733  
FXUS05 KWBC 161231  
PMD90D  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
830 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS  
 
A LA NIñA ADVISORY WAS ISSUED IN EARLY OCTOBER AS CONDITIONS REPRESENTING THE  
COLD PHASE OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) HAVE DEVELOPED. THE  
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHORT LIVED EVENT THROUGH WINTER  
2025-2026 BEFORE EASING BACK TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY EARLY SPRING. THE MOST COMMON  
LA NIñA IMPACTS CONTRIBUTE TO THE OUTLOOK DURING THE LATE AUTUMN AND WINTER  
MONTHS.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOV-DEC-JAN (NDJ) 2025-2026 FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL  
SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WHERE EQUAL-CHANCES (EC)  
OF EITHER OF THE THREE CATEGORIES IS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST ODDS OF WARMER THAN  
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND  
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES  
ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.  
 
THERE IS AN ELEVATED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NDJ 2025-2026 PRECIPITATION  
OUTLOOK. DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF  
THE U.S. FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST. FOR  
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE  
AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.  
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS  
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING  
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS  
 
LA NIñA CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AS SHOWN BY BOTH OCEANIC  
AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS. BELOW-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) EXIST  
ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 160 E TO NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST. WITHIN THIS AREA  
ARE REGIONS OF SST ANOMALIES LESS THAN -0.5 DEGREES C. THE LATEST WEEKLY VALUE  
OF THE NINO3.4 SST INDEX IS -0.3 DEGREES C. THE MOST RECENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT  
VALUES INDICATE COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 175 METERS  
IN DEPTH FROM 150 W TO 90 W INDICATING A RESERVOIR TO MAINTAIN LA NIñA  
CONDITIONS FROM THE OCEAN PERSPECTIVE. ANOMALOUS CONVECTION AND LOWER- AND  
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ATMOSPHERE ARE CONSISTENT WITH LA  
NIñA CONDITIONS.  
 
ANOTHER AREA OF ANOMALOUS SSTS IS PRESENT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WHERE A  
LARGE REGION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS FROM NEAR JAPAN EASTWARD TO  
THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA COAST. THE LARGEST DEPARTURES AT THIS TIME ARE  
CENTERED ALONG THE DATE LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 30 - 50 DEGREES N.  
 
A CURRENT REVIEW OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INDICATES LOTS OF  
VARIABILITY ACROSS THE DOMAIN WITH SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF BOTH POSITIVE AND  
NEGATIVE SNOW COVER ANOMALIES PRESENT. THE STATUS OF THE LAND SURFACE STATE  
ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AND HAWAII UNDER AT LEAST  
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEVERE, EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PRESENT  
FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO) IS CURRENTLY IN ITS EASTERLY PHASE AND  
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE WINTER INTO SPRING 2026.  
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS  
 
THE CPC OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION AND NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL  
ENSEMBLE (NMME) NINO3.4 SST OUTLOOKS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING CONTINUING  
LA NIñA CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE WINTER BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IN  
EARLY SPRING 2026. ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SPRING INTO  
SUMMER 2026.  
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS  
 
PHYSICAL SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) CLIMATE DRIVERS CONSIDERED IN THESE SET  
OF OUTLOOKS INCLUDE THE CURRENT LA NIñA CONDITIONS AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL  
WINTER IMPACTS, THE STATE OF THE QBO AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH LA NIñA AND THE  
STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX, AND COASTAL SSTS IN SOME AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN ARE ALSO CONSIDERED IN PREPARING THE OUTLOOK.  
 
THE NMME AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS  
WERE UTILIZED AS WELL AS STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS AND LONG TERM TEMPERATURE  
AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2025 TO NDJ 2026  
 
TEMPERATURE  
 
THE NDJ 2025-2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE NORTHERN  
TIER OF THE COUNTRY WHERE EQUAL-CHANCES (EC) OF EITHER OF THE THREE CATEGORIES  
IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL, HYBRID  
(CBAM), AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE HIGHEST ODDS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS IN THE CONUS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS WHERE THE ABOVE TOOLS, LA NIñA IMPACTS AND LONG TERM TRENDS ALIGN. FOR  
ALASKA, LATER SEA ICE FORMATION AND CONSEQUENTLY POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS  
SUPPORT ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN  
AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. POTENTIAL LA NIñA IMPACTS, PRIMARILY LATER IN  
THE SEASON, ALONG WITH NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TO  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. EC IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO FAVORED HIGH VARIABILITY OVER THIS  
THREE MONTH SEASON.  
 
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FROM DEC-JAN-FEB (DJF) 2025-2026  
THROUGH FEB-MAR-APR (FMA) 2026 DEPICT ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FROM PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURS DURING  
JAN-FEB-MAR (JFM) AND FMA 2026. THIS AREA RECEDES DURING MAR-APR-MAY (MAM)  
2026.  
 
HIGHLIGHTED FAVORED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS  
FORECAST IN NDJ 2025-2026 DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD OVER THIS SAME  
PERIOD. MORE MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS DURING  
JFM AND FMA 2026. LATER IN MAM 2026, ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD.  
 
THE FORECASTS OVER THE PERIOD FROM LATE AUTUMN THROUGH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING  
2026 DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE BASED ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS AND CONSIDERATIONS. THESE  
INCLUDE TYPICAL LA NIñA IMPACTS ACROSS THE SEASONS OF DJF 2025-2026 THROUGH FMA  
2026. GIVEN RETRACTION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET (ON AVERAGE) AND POTENTIAL  
SUBSEQUENT RIDGING/BLOCKING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN, TROUGHING AND COLDER  
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OFTEN IMPACT EASTERN ALASKA AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE  
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ALSO, IN THESE SEASONS LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE  
TRENDS ARE NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,  
STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS OR  
ABSENCE IN THE FORECAST OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INDICATED BY MOST OF  
THE NMME AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS - MOST LIKELY AN  
OVERREPRESENTATION OF POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THIS REGION WHERE OBSERVED  
TRENDS DO NOT INDICATE THIS.  
 
TWO ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS WHEN PREPARING THE OUTLOOK INCLUDED THE (1)  
CURRENT ABNORMALLY WARM NORTH PACIFIC SSTS AND (2) HOW THE CURRENT EASTERLY  
PHASE OF THE QBO MAY IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX.  
EXTRATROPICAL SSTS CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK  
AND SO TYPICALLY ARE NOT A RELIABLE PREDICTOR OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY. WITH LA  
NIñA CONDITIONS IN PLACE, TYPICAL ANOMALOUS RIDGING OR BLOCKING IN THE NORTH  
PACIFIC COULD LEAD TO SOME PERSISTENCE OF THESE POSITIVE SSTS IN SOME REGIONS.  
ALTHOUGH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, ANY IMPACT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONSISTENT WITH  
TYPICAL LA NIñA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (I.E. POTENTIALLY COLDER THAN AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS).  
 
THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX IS WEAKER TYPICALLY DURING WINTERS WHEN BOTH LA  
NIñA AND AN EASTERLY QBO PHASE ARE IN PLACE - WHICH IS FAVORED TO BE THE CASE  
THIS YEAR. A WEAKER STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX CAN LEAD TO SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC  
WARMING (SSW) EVENTS AND A MORE MERIDIONAL OR WAVY JET STREAM IN GENERAL. THIS  
MAKES IT MORE LIKELY FOR ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE ARCTIC  
OSCILLATION (AO) AND SO POTENTIAL COLD AIR PENETRATING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE  
CONTINENTAL AREAS. EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE, ARCTIC AIR CAN ENTER EITHER THE  
WESTERN OR EASTERN HEMISPHERE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SET OF CONDITIONS DOES  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN U.S., SO ALSO SUPPORTS FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER  
MIDWEST AND THE CONSIDERABLE AREA OF EC IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL CONUS AND PARTS  
OF THE NORTHEAST DURING JFM AND FMA 2026.  
 
FOR ALASKA, THE OUTLOOKS OVER THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE STATE.  
FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THAT DEPICTED IN  
NDJ 2025-2026 IN THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND  
ALASKA IN DJF 2025-2026, JFM 2026 AND FMA 2026 WITH THE MAXIMUM EXTENT IN  
COVERAGE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER TWO SEASONS.  
 
THE OUTLOOKS FROM APR-MAY-JUN (AMJ) 2026 ONWARDS ARE BASED ON THE ENSO-OCN  
FORECAST TOOL WHICH IS BASED ON THE "PERFECT PROG" FORECAST FROM THE CPC  
NIñO3.4 SST CONSOLIDATION (ENSO COMPONENT) AND LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS  
(OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMAL). GIVEN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL FORECAST FROM THIS GUIDANCE,  
THE FORECAST MAPS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.  
 
PRECIPITATION  
 
FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE IS AN ELEVATED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NDJ  
2025-2026 SEASON. DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN  
TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE  
SOUTHEAST. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AREAS  
OF THE STATE AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.  
 
MOVING THROUGH THE WINTER SEASONS TO EARLY SPRING 2026, THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FROM NDJ 2025-2026 THROUGH FMA 2026 SHOWS A CONTINUATION  
OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EASTWARD TO THE  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH JFM 2026 WITH AN EXTENSION TO INCLUDE THE OHIO VALLEY FROM  
DJF 2025-2026 THROUGH FMA 2026. HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE  
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ESPECIALLY DURING DJF 2025-2026.  
COMMON LA NIñA IMPACTS AND EVOLUTION SUPPORTED BY STATISTICAL, HYBRID, AND  
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE FORM THE BASIS FOR THESE OUTLOOKS. ABOVE  
NORMAL SSTS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE USED TO INCREASE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT BEYOND  
TYPICAL LA NIñA IMPACTS DURING NDJ 2025-2026, PRIMARILY IN NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, FORECAST COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES INCREASE  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND MAXIMIZE DURING JFM AND FMA 2026. LA  
NIñA AND ASSOCIATED NMME AND C3S MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THESE OUTLOOKS. BOTH  
THESE SIGNALS (WETTER AND DRIER) RECEDE DURING THE MAM 2026 SEASON.  
 
FOR ALASKA, THE OUTLOOKS OVER THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED  
LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE WITH  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR BOTH AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND  
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DURING DJF 2025-2026 AND JFM 2026.  
 
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURE, THE OUTLOOKS FROM APR-MAY-JUN (AMJ) 2026 ONWARDS ARE  
BASED ON THE ENSO-OCN FORECAST TOOL WHICH IS BASED ON THE "PERFECT PROG"  
FORECAST FROM THE CPC NIñO3.4 SST CONSOLIDATION (ENSO COMPONENT) AND LONG TERM  
PRECIPITATION TRENDS (OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMAL). GIVEN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL FORECAST  
FROM THIS GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST MAPS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON LONG TERM  
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  
 
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK  
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING  
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3  
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES  
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT  
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.  
 
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE  
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML  
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM  
L  
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)  
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR  
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM  
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  
 
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT  
MONTH ON NOV 20 2025  
 
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021  
FORECAST RELEASE.  
 
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