584  
FXUS05 KWBC 191331  
PMD90D  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
830 AM EST THU JAN 19 2023  
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS  
 
THE FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA) 2023 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PORTIONS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED  
STATES (CONUS) ALONG WITH PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, SOUTHWEST MAINLAND  
ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
THE FMA 2023 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS  
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF  
COAST, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
AREAS DEPICTED IN WHITE AND LABELED “EQUAL-CHANCES” OR “EC” ARE REGIONS WHERE  
CLIMATE SIGNALS ARE WEAK AND SO THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR EITHER ABOVE-,  
NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND TOTAL PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS.  
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS  
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING  
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS  
 
BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.  
RECENT OBSERVED SST ANOMALIES IN THE NIñO 3.4 REGION ARE AT -0.7 DEGREES  
CELSIUS (UP FROM -1.0 DEGREES CELSIUS ONE MONTH AGO). SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE  
ANOMALIES (AVERAGED FROM 180-100W AND 0-300 METERS) REMAINED AT NEAR -0.2  
DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE LAST MONTH, CONTINUING TO REFLECT WARMER SUBSURFACE  
TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OBSERVED IN AUGUST TO OCTOBER OF 2022. DURING THE LAST  
TWO MONTHS, NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WEAKENED, BUT WEAK  
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO RESIDE NEAR THE SURFACE OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL  
PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MOSTLY REMAIN AT DEPTH  
IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SOME POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE EVIDENT  
NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  
 
POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES (SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION) CONTINUE OVER  
THE EQUATORIAL WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH WEAK NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES (ENHANCED  
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION) THROUGHOUT INDONESIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA. THE  
TRADEWINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY  
ANOMALIES AS FAR EAST AS 160E DURING JANUARY. INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY MAY  
CAUSE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WESTERLY AND EASTERLY  
ANOMALIES, BUT THE WEAKENING OF LA NINA SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOW  
EASTWARD DRIFT DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  
 
SST ANOMALIES ARE POSITIVE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.  
POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES, PRESENT EARLIER IN THE FALL ALONG THE WEST COAST, HAVE  
MODERATED TO NEAR AVERAGE. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AND ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES OFFSHORE OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND.  
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS  
 
THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST FOR NIñO 3.4 DEPICTS DECREASING NEGATIVE  
ANOMALIES THROUGH THE SPRING 2023 AS A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS  
PREDICTED TO OCCUR. THE INPUTS BY THE CONSOLIDATION ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED  
THROUGH AMJ, AFTER WHICH SOME INPUTS SUGGEST EL NINO CONDITIONS AND OTHERS  
REMAIN IN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PHASE, THOUGH ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. THE NORTH  
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE  
CPC CONSOLIDATION. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS, THE  
CPC OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK INDICATES A 73 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING  
FMA AND A 82 PERCENT CHANCE DURING MAM. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST  
LIKELY OUTCOME THROUGH JJA, AFTER WHICH EL NIñO BECOMES THE MOST LIKELY  
CATEGORY.  
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS  
 
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR FMA 2023 WERE BASED ON DYNAMICAL  
MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NMME AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING THE GLOBAL SST  
BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA),  
EXPERIMENTAL CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING (CBAM), RELATIONSHIPS TO ENSO,  
AND TRENDS. THE OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION WAS A MAJOR  
TOOL USED IN THE OUTLOOKS, AND THAT INCLUDES THE ENSO/OCN TOOL AND A COMPLETE  
SUITE OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOL COMBINATIONS. ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO  
ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED DURING THE EARLY FORECAST LEAD TIMES, LA NIñA  
COMPOSITES WERE USED DURING FMA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO LA NIñA IS  
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATE WINTER OR EARLY SPRING. LAND SURFACE  
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING AN EXPECTATION OF DRY SOIL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE  
SPRING FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ANOMALOUS SNOWPACK ACROSS  
THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS, PLAYED A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE  
OUTLOOKS DURING THE 2023 SPRING AND SUMMER SEASONS. LONG-TERM CLIMATE TRENDS  
WERE CONSIDERED FOR ALL LEADS, BUT WERE RELIED UPON MORE HEAVILY FROM THE  
SUMMER 2023 THROUGH FMA 2024.  
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2023 TO FMA 2024  
 
TEMPERATURE  
 
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING FMA 2023 ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS FAVORED AREA OF  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME, CBAM, AND  
CONSOLIDATION TOOL. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50  
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE WHERE THE CONSOLIDATION HAS THE  
STRONGEST WARM SIGNAL AND ENSO CORRELATIONS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH. COVERAGE AND  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
ARE TEMPERED BY CONCERNS OF ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH FEBRUARY AND MARCH.  
ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ARE BASED ON MODEL OUTPUT, RELATIONSHIPS WITH NINO3.4,  
AND TRENDS. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS, BUT LOW SOIL-MOISTURE AND MODEL FORECASTS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
INCREASE UNCERTAINTY. SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM 100-228 PERCENT OF NORMAL  
SLIGHTLY FAVOR A COLDER START TO THE FMA PERIOD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF  
THE GREAT BASIN. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED  
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WITH  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA,  
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA, WHERE SSTS ARE  
ABOVE NORMAL ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2023 (COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH RELEASE)  
CONTAINS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.  
CORRESPONDING TO THE INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THAT SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD A COLDER  
OUTLOOK IS CARRIED THROUGH MJJ. FROM MJJ TO JAS, ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE INCREASED RELATIVE TO THE PRIOR SET OF OUTLOOKS. FROM SON  
ONWARD, THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE STATISTICAL CONSOLIDATION THAT INCLUDES  
TRENDS, SST-CA, AND THE ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF THE PREDICTED STATE OF ENSO.  
 
EC IS FORECAST FOR AREAS OF THE CONUS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
MOST VARIABLE DURING THIS THREE-MONTH PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT  
SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY RELATED TO THE MJO AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) ARE  
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER.  
 
PRECIPITATION  
 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LA NIñA  
RELATED PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH FMA 2023. IMPACTS ON THE PRIMARY STORM  
TRACK AND PRECIPITATION DUE TO LA NIñA ARE FORECAST TO LINGER EVEN IF NEGATIVE  
SST ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BEGIN TO WEAKEN. UPDATED  
OUTPUTS FROM THE GUIDANCE LISTED ABOVE RESULTED IN DECREASED ODDS FOR  
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST, WITH  
INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  
CALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA, SO SOME OF THAT AREA WAS CHANGED TO EC DURING FMA. THE OUTLOOK FOR  
ALASKA DURING FMA HAS NOT CHANGED.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR MAM WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE AREA OF ENHANCED ODDS FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS TRENDS AND  
RELATIONSHIPS WITH SSTS NO LONGER FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING AMJ,  
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND  
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, REFLECTING THE 4 STATISTICAL TOOLS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL  
GUIDANCE (NMME, CBAM). ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO  
REMOVED FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING MJJ AND JJA, AS A SHIFT TO EL NINO CAN  
INHIBIT THE MONSOON. FROM SON 2023 TO FMA 2024, THE OUTLOOKS WERE ADJUSTED TO  
REFLECT THE LATEST OUTPUT OF THE SKILL BASED CONSOLIDATION, WHICH INCLUDES THE  
PREDICTED STATE OF ENSO ACCORDING TO THE SST CONSOLIDATION, TRENDS, CCA, AND  
SST-CA.  
 
FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS  
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING  
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3  
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES  
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT  
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.  
 
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE  
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML  
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)  
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM  
L  
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)  
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR  
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM  
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  
 
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT  
MONTH ON FEB 16 2023  
 
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021  
FORECAST RELEASE.  

 
 
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