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FXUS05 KWBC 181252
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 18 2024
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
DURING MID-APRIL 2024, AN EL NIñO ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT THE OCEANIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH EL NIñO ARE RAPIDLY FADING. THERE IS AN
85% CHANCE THAT ENSO NEUTRAL WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE
(AMJ) SEASON. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TRANSITIONING OF THE ENSO
PHASE FROM ENSO NEUTRAL TO LA NIñA BY SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST, JJA), WITH LA
NIñA CONDITIONS FAVORED TO STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH BOREAL AUTUMN AND
WINTER. THEREFORE, A LA NIñA WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
THE MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2024 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, THE FAR WEST EXCLUDING
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
(>50%) FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER EASTERN ALASKA,
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND OVER NEW
MEXICO, SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA,
NEAR-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. FOR REMAINING AREAS OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. NO AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE MJJ SEASON.
THE MJJ 2024 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF ALASKA, AND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE, AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND FROM EASTERN
SECTIONS OF UTAH AND ARIZONA EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. FOR THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, WHERE SEASONAL
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES, EC IS FORECAST.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
EL NIñO IS FADING RAPIDLY AS EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
CONTINUE TO COOL, ASSOCIATED WITH UPWELLING FROM AN OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE. THE
MOST RECENT WEEKLY VALUE OF THE NIñO3.4 SST INDEX IS A SURPRISINGLY HIGH +0.9
DEGREES C, WHICH IS A BIT MISLEADING GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBSURFACE
WARMTH UNDERLYING THIS AREA. RELATIVELY COLD WATER (DEPARTURES RANGING FROM
-0.5 DEGREES C TO AT LEAST -6 DEGREES C) IS IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE BETWEEN
120W AND 100W LONGITUDE, EXTENDING WESTWARD AND DEEPENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, REACHING A DEPTH OF 150 TO 300 METERS AT 150E LONGITUDE
(THE APPROXIMATE LONGITUDE OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND CORAL SEA). TROPICAL
CONVECTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE DATE LINE AND
THE EQUATOR, AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE OVER INDONESIA. THESE ANOMALIES, IN ADDITION
TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES TO THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN ARE INDICATIVE OF THE UNDERLYING TRANSITION FROM EL NIñO TO ENSO-NEUTRAL.
AS OF MID-APRIL 2024, ABOVE-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN MANY AREAS OF
THE CONUS – INCLUDING MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND GULF COAST STATES.
DRIER THAN NORMAL SOILS ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA, IN THE VICINITY OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES RAIN SHADOW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. DRIER THAN
NORMAL SOILS ARE ALSO INDICATED IN A WISHBONE-SHAPED PATTERN THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS IOWA, SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA,
AND KANSAS, WHICH THEN LARGELY REVERSES DIRECTION AND CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALIES ARE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE
WARM HALF OF THE YEAR.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
FORECASTS OF THE NIñO 3.4 SST INDEX FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A NOMINAL LA NIñA (OCEANIC
NIñO INDEX OR ONI <=-0.5 DEGREES C) BY JUNE. MOST PARTICIPANT MODEL PREDICTIONS
ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE NMME AVERAGE, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE GFDL
SPEAR AND CANADIAN CANCM4I MODELS. THE FORMER DOES NOT REACH THE LA NIñA
THRESHOLD UNTIL MID-AUGUST. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME, C3S,
OR COPERNICUS) AVERAGE REACHES THE LA NIñA THRESHOLD BY AUGUST. THREE OF THE
PARTICIPANT MODELS (GERMAN DWD, ECMWF, AND METEO-FRANCE) STAY WITHIN THE
CONFINES OF ENSO-NEUTRAL LIMITS AT LEAST INTO SEPTEMBER, WHILE THE UKMO AND
CMCC ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND REACH MARGINAL LA NIñA CONDITIONS BY LATE MAY
INTO JUNE. THE CFS IS THE COLDEST OF SOLUTIONS, EXCEEDING THE MINIMAL LA NIñA
THRESHOLD EVEN BEFORE MJJ, AND PREDICTS A STRONG LA NIñA (ONI>=-1.5 DEGREES C)
BY JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2024. CPC’S SST CONSOLIDATION FOR THE NIñO 3.4
REGION PASSES INTO LA NIñA TERRITORY BY JJA, PEAKS DURING THE OVERLAPPING
SEASONS OF SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) AND OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND)
AT -1.4 DEGREES C (JUST SHORT OF A STRONG COLD EVENT), AND THEN RETREATS INTO
NEUTRAL TERRITORY BY MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2025. AS NOTED EARLIER, CPC’S ENSO
TEAM PREDICTS THE TRANSITION FROM EL NIñO TO ENSO-NEUTRAL SHOULD BE COMPLETED
WITHIN THE AMJ SEASON (85% CHANCE), WITH THE ODDS OF LA NIñA DEVELOPING BY JJA
(60% CHANCE). HISTORICALLY, LA NIñA TENDS TO FOLLOW STRONG EL NIñO EVENTS,
ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
THOUGH SOME REMAINING EL NIñO ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE COULD EXTEND INTO THE VERY
EARLY STAGES OF THE MJJ OUTLOOK, IT IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE FOR THE SEASON AS A WHOLE. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME
AND C3S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE UTILIZED, AS IS THE CALIBRATION,
BRIDGING AND MERGING (CBAM) TOOL ANCHORED TO THE NMME FORECASTS AND “BRIDGED”
WITH THE NIñO 3.4 INDEX – PRIMARILY FOR TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. THE CONSTRUCTED
ANALOG (CA) STATISTICAL TOOLS BASED ON SST AND SOIL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH THE
ENSO-OCN FORECAST TOOL THAT TARGETS IMPACTS FROM ENSO AS PREDICTED BY THE CPC
CONSOLIDATION NIñO 3.4 SST FORECAST AND LONG-TERM TRENDS, PLAYED A LARGE ROLE
IN MANY OF THE OUTLOOKS. LA NIñA IMPACTS ARE CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOKS FROM
JJA 2024 THROUGH FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA) 2025.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MJJ 2024 TO MJJ 2025 TEMPERATURE
THE MJJ 2024 SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, THE FAR WEST EXCLUDING
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES (>50%) FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER FAR EASTERN ALASKA, PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND OVER NEW MEXICO,
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA,
NEAR-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE REDUCED COVERAGE (FROM
LAST MONTH’S LEAD 2 MJJ OUTLOOK) OF 50%+ PROBABILITY FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST IS RELATED TO ANTICIPATED DIMINISHED INFLUENCES
FROM LAGGED EL NIñO IMPACTS, SLIGHTLY COOLER EFFECTS OF WET SOILS (THROUGH
EVAPORATION) OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO, AND TRENDS. IN
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, FAVORED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS THOUGHT TO BE THE
BEST COMPROMISE GIVEN NMME AND C3S SST REGIONAL FORECASTS OF NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL IN THIS REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA, DURING THE MJJ
SEASON. NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
PROLONGED OR MORE FREQUENT MARINE LAYER INTRUSIONS, A WELL-KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL
FEATURE IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS, ANOMALOUS
WARMTH IS FAVORED TO REPLACE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EC REGION (FROM LAST
MONTH’S MJJ OUTLOOK), AND IS FAVORED BY STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL (8-10+ INCHES) AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS THE REASON BEHIND THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS (AS SHOWN BY THE OCN TOOL) FAVOR RELATIVE MAXIMA IN
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS, AND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. MOST TOOLS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. TO THE NORTH, THE OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA IS BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND ANTICIPATED RESIDUAL
INFLUENCES FROM SEA ICE.
FOR JJA AND JAS 2024, THE FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALASKA FROM THE PRECEDING MJJ OUTLOOK ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. IN JJA, FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ADJACENT ALASKA PENINSULA, SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST WITH TIME. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED EMERGING EFFECTS OF LA NIñA, AND SUPPORTED BY THE ENSO-OCN TOOL AND
THE STATISTICAL CONSOLIDATION (STAT-CON). FOR THE CONUS, PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50% FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES, WARRANTED BY THE ENSO-OCN, STAT-CON, DYNAMICAL
CONSOLIDATION (NMME-CON), AND A SKILL-WEIGHTED MEAN OF THE TWO CON TOOLS (THE
FINAL CON). THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MOST OTHER TOOLS, SUCH AS THE CBAM
TOOL, THE IMME, AND LONGER-TERM TRENDS. THE FAVORED AREA OF EC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DAKOTAS IN JJA GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN JAS 2024, CONSISTENT WITH EMERGING INFLUENCES OF LA NIñA. THE THREE CON
TOOLS AND TRENDS FAVOR ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO), THE
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN PREPARATION FOR THE TYPICAL LA NIñA IMPACTS THAT SET UP
DURING BOREAL AUTUMN AND WINTER.
DURING SON THROUGH NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2024, THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS FAVOR A CANONICAL LA NIñA RESPONSE, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GIVING WAY TO EC, AND TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NDJ. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
COLD EVENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, SON THROUGH NDJ 2024, ENSO COMPOSITES GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO FAVOR A REPLACEMENT OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA TO EC, AND THE EXPANSION OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ALASKA. SON IS THE MOST LIKELY SEASON FOR HIGH PROBABILITIES (>60%) FOR
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF ALASKA DUE
TO THE SEASONALLY DELAYED ONSET OF SEA ICE FORMATION. FROM
DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY (DJF) 2024-25 THROUGH MAM 2025, LA NIñA COMPOSITES
ARE PRIMARILY USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THE FINAL TWO LEADS,
AMJ AND MJJ 2025, TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE HEAVILY UTILIZED. FOR REMAINING AREAS
OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EC FAVORED.
PRECIPITATION
THE MJJ 2024 SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF ALASKA, AND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE, AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE ANOMALIES
ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH NMME & C3S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, CFS,
AND TRENDS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, MOSTLY FROM ENSO-OCN AND THE LAST VESTIGES OF LAGGED EL NIñO INFLUENCES.
ANOMALOUS DRYNESS IS FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WEST
TEXAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE THREE CON TOOLS, CFS, C3S, NMME, AND TO SOME
EXTENT, THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (SST-CA) STATISTICAL TOOL. THERE IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THIS STRONG DRY SIGNAL OVER THE
EASTERN MONSOON REGION AND ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (COLORADO
AND UTAH). HISTORICALLY, THIS CORRELATION FAVORS A SLOW START TO, AND POTENTIAL
UNDERPERFORMANCE OF, THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. FOR THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA, WHERE SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EC IS FORECAST.
FROM JJA AND JAS 2024, WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH NMME GUIDANCE. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT IN
THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR SON
THROUGH NDJ 2024. FROM SON 2024 TO MAM 2025, THE MAIN CLIMATE DRIVER/FORCING IS
THE ANTICIPATED LA NIñA, WHICH FAVORS AN ENHANCED STORM TRACK AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES, AND ALSO (STARTING WITH
DJF 2024-25) OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ENHANCED DRYNESS
AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR THE LAST TWO LEADS, APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) AND
MJJ 2025, THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE LARGELY BASED ON TRENDS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML (USE
LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON MAY 16, 2024
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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