439
FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2026
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS DURING
EARLY TO MID-JULY, WITH THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) PREDICTED TO SHIFT WEST TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LOCATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BY DAY 10 (JULY 12). THE ECENS DEPICTS
THE RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHILE THE GEFS FAVORS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN THE 8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. FOR THE 6-10 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, BROAD 500-HPA RIDGING
WHICH IS FAVORED TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LEADS TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE MOST TOOLS FAVOR NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE GEFS VERIFIES, THEN A FASTER TRANSITION TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN
THIS PERIOD. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (> 60%) ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES UNDERNEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
AS THE 500-HPA RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD, A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL CONUS. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO RECEIVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALIGNED WITH THE PREDICTED
STATIONARY FRONT. AFTER A SLOW START TO THE MONSOON DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THIS UPCOMING PATTERN
CHANGE WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS UNTIL DAY 8 OR 9 AT THE
EARLIEST, ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS ALASKA WITH A PAIR OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THESE TROUGHS
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.
ALONG WITH THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANING ON THE WETTER SIDE, NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY EXCEPT FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY IN A CHANGING PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2026
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500-HPA
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. BY DAY 12 (JULY 14), THE
ECENS DEPICTS 500-HPA HEIGHTS AT 598 DM OVER COLORADO WHICH IS QUITE STRONG FOR
AN ENSEMBLE MEAN AT THAT TIME RANGE. CONSISTENT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH
TIME HEADING INTO MID-JULY, THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND HAS A LARGE SPATIAL
COVERAGE WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +60 METERS, EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CONUS AND PEAK AT 70-80% ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST WHERE THE GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE ECENS. THE OUTLOOK LEANED TOWARDS
THE WARMER ECENS SOLUTION BUT DUE TO THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS, ONLY A
33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST.
THE ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
DURING WEEK-2, WHICH IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON. BASED ON
THIS ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS (DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
ANALOG), ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
AS MID-JULY IS A DRIER TIME OF YEAR. DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT TRENDED DRIER TODAY
FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER OVERHEAD
OR JUST UPSTREAM ALSO SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, PRECIPITATION TOOLS
OFFER WEAK SIGNALS BUT GENERALLY FAVOR EITHER NEAR NORMAL OR A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE.
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA AND THE ECENS IS THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH IT. REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, THE ECENS, GEFS,
AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE. THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SUPPORT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA WITH THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED THROUGH
WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS OFFSET
BY DIVERGING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. ALSO,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20200630 - 19980620 - 20160707 - 19940705
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20160708 - 19980620 - 20200630 - 19890626
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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