367  
FXUS06 KWBC 222003  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 22 2021  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 01, 2021  
 
TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE 500-HPA  
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS  
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE  
ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ARE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,  
AND THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING REMAINS BUT REDUCES ACROSS THE  
HIGHER LATITUDES OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY  
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON STRAIT. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST  
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.  
 
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN TROUGHING. NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE  
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES, SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL AUTO BLEND TOOL. ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES TO THE  
CENTRAL CONUS, THE APPALACHIANS AND MOST OF THE GULF COAST STATES, UNDERNEATH  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS.  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA  
CONSISTENT WITH THE SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION TOOL.  
 
A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LEAD TO ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS.  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND  
THE GULF COAST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONSISTENT WITH THE  
AUTOBLEND FORECAST TOOL. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR  
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER  
MUCH OF ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 05, 2021  
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO A SLIGHT  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD. TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE  
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST . POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS FAR  
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER  
THE SOTHWESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING FORECAST OVER THE REGION.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.  
PREDICTED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW FAVOR INCREASED  
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA.  
 
A CONTINUED ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS  
GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST, COINCIDING WITH ENHANCED  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>60%) ARE  
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS OREGON. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE  
ELEVATED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND  
FLORIDA CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND  
GEFS CALIBRATED REFORECAST TOOLS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.  
 
FORECASTER: QIN Z  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE  
OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
FEBRUARY 18.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20080117 - 19800123 - 20020115 - 19850129 - 20010205  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20080117 - 20020115 - 19850129 - 20040125 - 19680102  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 01, 2021  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B  
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A B  
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B  
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B  
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N  
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N  
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N  
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N  
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N B  
MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS N N  
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA A N  
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N  
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A B  
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N  
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N  
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 05, 2021  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A  
UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO A B  
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B  
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B  
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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