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FXUS06 KWBC 111902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCTOBER 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 21 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND ADJACENT REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DEPICTING MODERATE
TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND EASTERN CANADA, AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA.
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
DEPICTED MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS, BRINGING BRIEF PULSES OF PRECIPITATION AND
TRANSIENT COLD PERIODS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48.
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA GENERALLY FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. ODDS EXCEED 50% ACROSS THE
WEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND TOP 60% FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND LARGEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES. EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS TO THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION AND TILT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN NORTHERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
LEADS TO A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND
NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION KEEP HAWAII TILTING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER 48 FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF
COAST. WITH WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FILLING
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BEING INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS. THE DEPICTED PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS POSITIONED SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
TO TILT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC TROPICS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO FORCING
FROM EL NINO, AND HAWAII REMAINS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 25 2026
THE OVERALL PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ENSEMBLE
MODEL FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THAT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA ARE
BOTH WEAKER IN THE WEEK-2 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND
EXTENT OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS ARE REDUCED AS WELL, BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE THAN THE REDUCED TROUGHING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 UNDER
PERSISTENT RIDGING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS (>60%), WITH 50-60% ODDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWER ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. SIMILAR POSITIONING OF TROUGHING OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA MAINTAINS AN EAST-WEST GRADIENT, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INDICATED FOR THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
AS RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES, MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
REMAINS FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL IS PREFERRED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED PACIFIC
STORM TRACK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND GULF COAST WHERE A
POTENTIAL STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASED MOISTURE SOURCED FROM THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED RAIN. WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN PLACE,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WIDE SPREAD AMONG PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890929 - 20050923 - 19980924 - 20221010 - 20201007
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20201006 - 19891001 - 20050925 - 19991018 - 19980926
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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