351
FXUS06 KWBC 012040
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN FEBRUARY 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 11 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO
NOTED OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. DEEP TROUGHING IS DEPICTED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND CANADIAN MARITIMES, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
STRETCHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO WESTERN EUROPE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE GREAT PLAINS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING REGIONS,
EXCEEDING 70%. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS GENERALLY FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH ODDS INCREASING
TOWARDS THE EAST. CHANCES EXCEED 80% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALSO HAS ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXCEEDING 60%
SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
AS SUBTROPICAL TROUGHING INCREASES OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ENHANCES ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
DRYING EFFECT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ODDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BROAD AND SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A POTENTIAL KONA LOW IS FAVORED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DEPICT
A TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH A WEAK TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS
STRAIT, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FAVORED TO PERSIST AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE REDUCED RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2 MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SURFACE LOW FORMING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THIS LOW WILL COALESCE IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE, WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING FROM WEST TEXAS TO SESKACHEWAN.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE EARLIER PERIOD. THIS IS
AT LEAST PARTLY FROM INCREASED MODEL SPREAD, BUT ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
DEPICTED SYNOPTIC SETUP RESULTS IN A SPREAD EASTWARD OF CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SPREADING TODAY INTO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST U.S., WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>50%) LINGERING OVER THE NEW YORK
MEGAPLEX. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE ODDS TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE
INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE BERING STRAIT FAVORS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST IS FAVORED TO BRING A LARGE
SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OVER THE CONUS, POTENTIALLY BREAKING THE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CONUS RECENTLY. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS NOW WEAKLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
AS A POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLONE SPINS UP SOMEWHERE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WEAKLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND PORTIONS OF THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR, BOTH OF WHICH ARE INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
CONTINUED TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL KONA LOW ACTIVITY IN THE HAWAII REGION KEEPS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS (>50%), WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100215 - 20160120 - 20160211 - 20060208 - 20170128
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160118 - 20100214 - 20070213 - 20030124 - 20160211
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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