757
FXUS06 KWBC 092026
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2026
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS FORECAST, FEATURING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA; A DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, AND A MODERATELY STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND THE BIG PICTURE OVERALL. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
RIDGE, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR
WEST, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF TOOLS. THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE EXPANSIVE
AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH INCLUDES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GIVEN THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) TROUGH AXIS, IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE GREATER COVERAGE OF ANOMALOUS COLD
FORECAST BY THE RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS IS TOO WIDESPREAD. THE
INCREASED ODDS FOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. THE ALASKA PENINSULA
REPRESENTS THE NEAR-NORMAL TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED TO THE NORTH AND EAST, AND THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ALEUTIANS (RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). OVER
THE LOWER 48 STATES, FROM THE EASTERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED. ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH
LIES AHEAD (EAST) OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE REMAINING AREA (CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS) RELATED TO A FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN CONUS. THE GREATEST ODDS EXCEED 70
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, ACCOMPANIED BY LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCREASES THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. MOST
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. OVER THE ALASKA
DOMAIN, A WANING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN STILL FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.
RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. THE ERF-CON
AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2026
THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN SHOWS VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN, AND WITH YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL WEEK-2
CIRCULATION FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA DURING TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WHILE ALSO INFLUENCING THE BERING
SEA AND WESTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
WHILE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN
IS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WEST,
WITH A WEAK EASTWARD EXTENSION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A MAXIMUM 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ERF-CON TOOL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
AMOUNTS FOR PRACTICALLY ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WARRANTED BY
THE RAW, REFORECAST AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER
THE FAR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. EAST OF THE DIVIDE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM MAINE TO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
IS RELATED TO ONE OR MORE COLORADO LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2.
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO STEER ADEQUATE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THE
GULF. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FROM MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS. IN ALASKA, WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY DURING WEEK-2, THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW ALOFT AND EAST-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
FAVOR NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050120 - 20150128 - 20160211 - 20150214 - 20030126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050120 - 20150213 - 20160211 - 20030126 - 19910211
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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