273
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 11 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND VICINITY WITH THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURES BEING ANOMALOUS RIDGES
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THESE RIDGES OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE EXCEPTION IS A
PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO BRACKET THE CONUS OVER THE WEST AND
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT. THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE WITH THREE
NAMED STORMS (LOWELL, KARINA AND MARIE). MARIE COULD HELP TO INJECT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE WEST.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHWEST, DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, BEHIND A TROUGH
FORECAST OFF THE COAST. MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL, TIED TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A TILT
TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA CONSISTENT
WITH RAW AND REFORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING AND A SWEEP OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL STORM MARIE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AS THE
TROUGH AND INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COME TOGETHER. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ANALOG AND TELECONNECTION TOOLS AND UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII WITH BOTH TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND HURRICANE KARINA NEAR THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT AMID AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TIED TO AN INCREASE IN MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
EARLY IN WEEK-2, THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH A
PAIR OF MID-LEVEL RIDGES OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE PERIOD, THESE FEATURES ARE BREAKING
DOWN. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY THE MOST FAVORED
OUTCOME OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE
WEST COAST. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA BRINGS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE STATE. THE TROPICS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE
DURING WEEK-2 AND RECURVING CYCLONES FROM THE WEST PACIFIC COULD INJECT ENERGY
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND THIS CONTINUES TO DRIVE UNCERTAINTY THROUGH
MID-SEPTEMBER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DUE TO
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LOWER (LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TIED TO THE WAXING AND WANING
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FEATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES NEAR A WEAKENING
TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH AND INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST PACIFIC BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A DISTURBANCE BEHIND TROPICAL STORM MARIE MAY BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE WEST. DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. CONVERSELY, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RAW DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MOSTLY NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE REFORECAST TOOLS, AS USUAL, FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MIXED AT BEST AND WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BERING SEA DURING WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL, 2 OUT OF 5, VERY
WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS A RESULT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY LIMITS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240910 - 20240821 - 20050903 - 19970819 - 20050828
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20120826 - 20240911 - 20050905 - 20240822 - 19970820
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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