741
FXUS06 KWBC 111902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 21 2026
LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTIONS APPEAR TO BE PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA LEADING INTO AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE A NEGATIVE PACIFIC/NORTH
AMERICA OSCILLATION (PNA) AND A STRONGLY POSITIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), BOTH
OF WHICH WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TELECONNECTION FORECASTS FAVOR A
CONTINUATION OF BOTH -PNA AND +AO THROUGH WEEK-2 AND THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WHEN THESE INDICES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST VALUES. OVER THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER
ALASKA AND EXTENDING WELL SOUTH TOWARDS HAWAII ALONG WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
UPSTREAM NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, ALONG WITH A NARROW
BUT DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS STRAIT DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND
STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES ABOVE 80% ARE
WIDESPREAD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WEST, AND EXCEED 90% FOR THE GREAT BASIN,
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CONVERSELY, THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IS FAVORED TO BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR, TILTING THE ODDS
TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER ALASKA AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80% FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SURROUNDING
HAWAII TILT ODDS HEAVILY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN PUSHES THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA AND FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS WITH THE GREATEST ODDS (>60%) OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S.-CANADA BORDER, WHICH MIGHT SEE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER COME THROUGH, AND FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN
REGION. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND.
ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICS AND POTENTIAL KONA LOW
FORMATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD PUSHES HAWAII FIRMLY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, EXCEEDING 60% CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE ODDS
STILL EXCEED 50%.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: VERY HIGH, 5 OUT OF 5. EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS, INFORMED BY PATTERN RECOGNITION AND
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTION MODES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 25 2026
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD GENERALLY FEATURES A PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN DESCRIBED FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER IN
THE 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND, AND THE DOMINANT RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS IS DEPICTED AS SLIGHTLY FLATTER BUT ALSO MUCH BROADER,
KEEPING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONFINED TO THE HIGH LATITUDES. THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO PERSIST AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
LIKE THE OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES REVIEWED, IS FAVORED TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH CHANCES REMAINING ABOVE 90% FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE AREA INDICATED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPANDED EASTWARD
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLIER PERIOD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA (NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED) AND THE NORTHEAST U.S., WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY. THE COLD PATTERN FOR ALASKA CONTINUES, AND THE
WHOLE STATE IS FAVORED FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH ODDS GREATER THAN
80% CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. HAWAII REMAINS STRONGLY FAVORED
(>60% CHANCES) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-2,
EXTENDING THE DRY PERIOD SEEN IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN HIGHEST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (>50%), AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHICH MAY STILL BENEFIT FROM INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE SUBTROPICS, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER TILTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SITTING AT THE EDGE OF THE
NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK. CONTINUED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA KEEPS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR HAWAII,
EXCEEDING 60% FOR ALL BUT THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY INCREASING SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910219 - 20070313 - 20040305 - 19970301 - 20120309
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910220 - 20040305 - 20070313 - 20220318 - 20070319
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page