822
FXUS06 KWBC 101902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 16 - 20 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA,
THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MORE RIDGING MOVING IN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER ALL OF THE CONUS. WEAK
POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AS EXPANSIVE
RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPANDS EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE CONUS FROM
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CHANCES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE
OHIO VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AS STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. CONFIDENCE
IN SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE CONUS, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH A STRONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THESE FACTORS RAISE THE ODDS FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IN A
SWATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE CONUS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES CLOSEST TO THE TROPICAL AIR INFLUX AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL
TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. MARGINALLY-ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER REACH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
AND ALSO COVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTER WOULD FAVOR SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS, AND GEORGIA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE THE CYCLONE FLOW. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18 - 24 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. NEAR NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HAWAII SOUTH OF THE BUILDING CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE CONUS UNDER THE
STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (OVER 70 PERCENT) IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE,
VIRGINIA, AND PORTIONS OF CAROLINAS , AND GEORGIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ACROSS
HAWAII, A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO IMPACT
ALASKA, KEEPING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (OVER 50 PERCENT) CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF TEXAS AND SOME ADJACENT LOCATIONS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED SKILL-WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200423 - 19960427 - 19940510 - 20130512 - 19900504
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200422 - 20200510 - 20040429 - 19900504 - 20080518
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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