492
FXUS06 KWBC 071901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUNE 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE, REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 180 METERS FOR THE PERIOD MEAN. A WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, ADDITIONAL
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE FORECAST OFF THE
EAST COAST. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND HAWAII. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED IN
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG BOTH THE WEST COAST AND EAST COAST
OF THE CONUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR RETURN
FLOW BRINGING MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD ELEVATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OVER THE WEST, CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHOULD BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS A BROAD
SWATH OF THE ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BENEATH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING. IN ALASKA, WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL POSITIVE HEIGHTS, MUCH OF THE STATE
IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, ABOVE
NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM AND
MUGGY SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AND COULD BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS
FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY THE
LESS CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2026
DURING WEEK-2, AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST COAST HAVE MOSTLY PROGRESSED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THE WEEK-2 MEAN. IN ALASKA, 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE QUITE NEUTRAL
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT WEEK-2 FORECAST OVER THE 49TH STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BRINGS STRONG
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EARLY
PERIOD WARMTH OVER THE EAST MAINTAINS HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REGION, THAN THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS LIKELY TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING WEEK-2 AS A WHOLE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NEAR NORMAL FAVORED IS FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED DURING WEEK-2.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE SOUTHWEST, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR
AN EARLY GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGE EVENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION RECENTLY FORMED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY. ONE OR BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEK-2.
THESE SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140524 - 20070615 - 19910522 - 20180611 - 19940618
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140524 - 19950620 - 20130529 - 19960601 - 20180611
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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