089
FXUS06 KWBC 062002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 06 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL
MODELS PREDICT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE
ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THAT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS A MORE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS THAN THE ECMWF AND GEFS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN TODAY'S
MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS. THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS THE RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10
DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT CORRELATION SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT A
TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD,
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEFS EXTEND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND MOST OF THE
ALEUTIANS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND A VARIABLE
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
CONUS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NEW YORK AND
VERMONT, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE AND UNDER ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT CONTINUED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECASTS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN EACH OF THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE
CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS MORE RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FURTHER INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS, COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEFS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS.
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PACIFIC COASTAL STATES INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA, WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION RELATED TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, UNDER RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR A
LARGE AREA OF CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST,
UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GULF COAST, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, AND
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER:
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page