845
FXUS06 KWBC 282002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN DECEMBER 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 07 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, 0Z CMCE, AND 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE
ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL.
THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN, THOUGH ITS NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING
SEA, AND EASTERN SIBERIA HAS COLLAPSED. THE ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 40N/165W, AND IS ON THE ORDER OF 180 METERS ABOVE
AVERAGE. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA, AND
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEED
-150 METERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. MUCH OF THE MEAN ANOMALOUS TROUGH AXIS
LIES JUST WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
WHICH MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND) FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EAST COAST STATES. THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY
ON THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURES. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA,
WHERE THE CMCE PREDICTS A PRONOUNCED EAST-WEST CHANNEL OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THIS CHANNEL SEPARATES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS FROM A LARGE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF AND GEFS FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. FOR HAWAII, THE MODELS PREDICT A RANGE OF HEIGHT
DEPARTURES FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
THEREBY AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
ENHANCED MILD PACIFIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN CONUS, SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS PREDICTED TO BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST,
UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED BASED PRIMARILY ON REFORECAST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA, UNDER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MEAN TROUGH LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THAT AREA. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH PREDICTED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS EXCEED 70 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL, WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH AN
EXPECTED MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION. FROM THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE CONUS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED.
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL. CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING WEEK-2 AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
RAPIDLY DE-AMPLIFIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 11 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS.
THE STRONG RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR
40N/165W IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD RAPIDLY COLLAPSES (I.E. THE EXCESS
ATMOSPHERIC MASS MAY BE SHIFTING WESTWARD DISCONTINUOUSLY AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST DOMAIN). DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID-LATITUDES (30N-60N), PREDICTED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE SMALL, CONSISTENT WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, WITH ONE
IMPORTANT EXCEPTION; THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER IS ON THE ORDER OF -90 METERS, LOCATED JUST EAST OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY. IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND'S FULL-HEIGHT FIELD, A WEAK RIDGE AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND, WITH A WEAK TROUGH AND BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
IF THE STRONGER TROUGH SCENARIO THAT THE ECMWF IS PREDICTING VERIFIES, IT COULD
INDICATE A SNOWY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, ESPECIALLY
WITH STRONG BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE, A MEAN TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF THE STATE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD. OVER LOWER LATITUDES, HAWAII IS PREDICTED BY THE
VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS TO HAVE NEAR-AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE MAXIMIZED OVER 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS PROMOTED BY MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER NORTHERN
MAINE, NEAR THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH
PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COASTS, IN DEFERENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING CORRECT WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPER TROUGH THAT IT FORECASTS. IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PREDICTED OVER THE MAINLAND AND PENINSULA AREA,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THERE ARE ELEVATED
CHANCES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, BASED ON MANY OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE BOLSTERED OVER HAWAII BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL IN WEEK-2.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR A LARGE FRACTION OF THE LOWER 48
STATES, WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, THE GULF COAST
STATES, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO
HAVE NEAR NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN FEATURES
RAPIDLY DE-AMPLIFYING FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES, WITH THE LATTER BEING VERY
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CMCE, DEPICT ANOMALOUS DRYNESS ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, UNDERSCORING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ANY FORECAST PROMOTING BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS CONSIDERED RISKY (HENCE THE LARGE
AREA OF FAVORED NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION). INCIDENTALLY, THE GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS THIS COLD SEASON.
IT IS PARTICULARLY APPROPRIATE AND TIMELY TO NOTE THAT THE GREAT LAKES
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY (GLERL) LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LAKE ERIE'S TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 40 DEG F (WHERE THE DENSITY OF
FRESHWATER REACHES ITS MAXIMUM, TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AT AND BELOW
THE SURFACE). THIS MEANS LAKE ERIE COULD FREEZE FAIRLY QUICKLY NOW, SHUTTING
OFF THE UNDERLYING MOISTURE SUPPLY FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR TYPICAL
DOWNWIND LOCATIONS. FINALLY, FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE (2 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN TRYING TO FORECAST INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WESTERLIES. UNCERTAINTY IS NOTABLY HIGHER IN THE MODEL
500-HPA HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION FIELDS, WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK BASED ON BETTER TOOL AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041229 - 20211215 - 20211223 - 20050110 - 19980103
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041228 - 20211216 - 20211222 - 19921228 - 19980103
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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