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FXUS06 KWBC 112002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN JANUARY 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). DOWNSTREAM, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
HAWAII DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY,
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH ANTECEDENT WARMER TEMPERATURES TIMING OFF FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING. CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. RESIDUAL
TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST SUPPORTS A TILT
TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO LATE DECEMBER. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT
FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WITH A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND, WHERE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. IN HAWAII, TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HAWAII DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. RIDGING
INITIALLY OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT OF THE EAST, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME EXPANSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS DRIVEN BY PATTERNS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND WEAK ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
AND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER HAWAII UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS
LONGER INTO WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING WEEK-2. RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA
FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A POTENTIAL RETURN
TO A COLDER PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA,
NEBRASKA, AND KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI, ARKANSAS, AND MONTANA EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO NORTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND MICHIGAN, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS INCREASED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070105 - 20120125 - 19890124 - 20140112 - 20151222
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070106 - 19890117 - 20060124 - 20151221 - 19890123
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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