322
FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2025
A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA,
DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THIS ANOMALY HAS WEAKENED
RELATIVE TO RECENT 6-10 DAY FORECASTS. A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND DEAMPLIFIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CONUS IN TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS, AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PERSIST
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF MODELS,
AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHEAST IN TODAY’S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SUPPORTS NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND THE INTERIOR CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA AND PARTS OF OREGON, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA MOSTLY UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. WITH A RAPIDLY CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE EAST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH A
PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS TIME PROGRESSES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODELS ON A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GREATER MAGNITUDE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UNDER WEAK TROUGHING AND SUPPORTED
PRIMARILY BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2,
UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN WEEK 2, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY ARID AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
UNCERTAINTY IS HOWEVER INCREASING AS TIME PROGRESSES, AND THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860524 - 20030525 - 19730509 - 19800518 - 19730524
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860523 - 20030525 - 19730509 - 19820517 - 19890611
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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