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FXUS07 KWBC 211231
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUN 2026
THE JUNE 2026 MONTHLY OUTLOOK WAS MADE WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS SUMMER. THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY NINO 3.4 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) ANOMALY IS ABOUT +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS, CORRESPONDING TO THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN ENSO-NEUTRAL AND EL NINO. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE GREATER THAN IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION.
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES WERE POSITIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN, ASSOCIATED WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT. NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES, INDICATING ENHANCED
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION, WERE PRESENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE TO
THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR, CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING EL NINO CONDITIONS.
LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. UPPER-LEVEL (200-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN IN RECENT WEEKS. POSITIVE
SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INCREASED IN MAGNITUDE NEAR THE SURFACE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
AND POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF AN EL NINO. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND THE CPC EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK PREDICT EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO BE WEAK FOR THE MAY-JUNE-JULY SEASON WITH A PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY GREATER
THAN 70 PERCENT. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SUMMER
AND AUTUMN SEASONS. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAK
AND NOT IMPACT THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE JUNE CLIMATE OUTLOOK, SUBSEASONAL
FORCING AND TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS MAY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK.
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) HAS BEGUN TO PROPAGATE WITH ENHANCED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. DYNAMICAL MODELS, INCLUDING
THE ECMWF, PREDICT THE PROPAGATION OF THE MJO SIGNAL EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PACIFIC IN EARLY JUNE. THE MJO IN THIS PHASE ENHANCES THE CHANCES
OF COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IN
EARLY JUNE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
THE MJO, THE CURRENT STATE OF ENSO, AND DECADAL TRENDS WERE CONSIDERED IN THE
JUNE CLIMATE OUTLOOK, USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION (MLR) STATISTICAL
MODEL.
THE JUNE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON
DYNAMICAL MODEL AND STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE ARE FROM THE NORTH AMERICA MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME). IN ADDITION TO THE NMME, A
CONSOLIDATION OF MODEL FORECASTS WAS UTILIZED, WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
STATISTICAL TOOLS: THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), THE CONSTRUCTED
ANALOG (CA), AND AN ENSO OCN TOOL, THAT COMBINES THE IMPACT OF ENSO, BASED ON
THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION PREDICTED MEDIAN NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY, WITH THE
OPTIMUM CLIMATE NORMAL (OCN) TO REPRESENT DECADAL TRENDS. DAILY INITIALIZED
FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFSV2) DYNAMICAL MODEL FOR THE
MONTH OF JUNE AND THE MOST RECENT ECMWF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK
3-4 PERIOD THAT IS VALID FOR JUNE 2-15 WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. RECENT BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL SSTS AND SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES, WERE ADDITIONAL
FACTORS CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOK.
THE JUNE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING
SEA, DUE TO NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE ADJACENT WATERS AND CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE IMME AND CFSV2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, IMME AND
CFSV2, AS WELL AS THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING EL NINO CONDITIONS AND THE
PREDICTED PROPAGATION OF THE MJO INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS, ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INTO THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM
THE CFSV2, THE CONSOLIDATION, AND DECADAL TRENDS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY THE CORRELATION
BETWEEN PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR
JUNE AND ECMWF AND MLR FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. EQUAL CHANCES
OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE AND LOW PREDICTABILITY AS INDICATED
BY THE CALIBRATED NMME FORECASTS.
THE JUNE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH NMME AND IMME ANOMALY FORECASTS, THE CONSOLIDATION OF
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, AND DECADAL TRENDS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR JUNE AND THE MLR AND ECMWF FORECASTS FOR EARLY
JUNE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH THE CFSV2
FORECAST FOR JUNE, THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH, AND
DECADAL TRENDS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH NMME, IMME, AND CFSV2 DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
FOR JUNE, AS WELL AS ECMWF FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. EQUAL CHANCES
OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS, WHERE THERE IS GREATER VARIABILITY AMONG PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUN WILL BE ISSUED ON SUN MAY 31 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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