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FXUS07 KWBC 151231
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2026
THE NOVEMBER 2026 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
DYNAMICAL MODELS, LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES, EL NINO
TELECONNECTIONS, AND DECADAL TRENDS. GUIDANCE INCORPORATES INDIVIDUAL MODELS
AND MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES (MME) FROM THE COPERNICUS CLIMATE SYSTEM (C3S) AND
THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), ALONGSIDE PROBABILITY ANOMALY
CORRELATION (PAC) CALIBRATED NMME FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS BLENDING SSTS
AND TRENDS. SHORT-TERM EARLY NOVEMBER FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE FORECAST
SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 12
(GEFSV12), AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF)
MODELS ARE UTILIZED, ALONG WITH MONTHLY FORECASTS FROM CFSV2 AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL BETA VERSION OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST SYSTEM (SFS) MODEL. EL NINO
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CLIMATE DRIVER, OVERSHADOWING THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO), THOUGH LOCALIZED SST INFLUENCES ARE POSSIBLE.
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE EXPECTED EL NINO
TELECONNECTION FOR NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PATTERN
CAN OCCUR, ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY IN SOME AREAS. FURTHERMORE, WHILE CURRENT EL
NINO CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, NOVEMBER CAN STILL BE A TRANSITION
MONTH FOR ENSO IMPACTS FOR SOME REGIONS, WITH TELECONNECTIONS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
THE NOVEMBER 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) AND ALONG BOTH COASTS. OVERALL, MODELS AND TOOLS FAVOR A WARMER
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, PARTICULARLY OVER WASHINGTON AND THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST IN THE OUTLOOK. PROBABILITIES ARE DAMPED OVER OREGON
DUE TO NEUTRAL SST ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TOWARD
ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS MAINTAINS A TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO WEAKER OVER MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA WHERE DIVING
TROUGHS MAY INTRODUCE COOLER SPELLS. INTER-MODEL SPREAD INCREASES UNCERTAINTY
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OTHER AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCLUDING PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE EL NINO TYPICALLY SUPPORTS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, INCONSISTENT
MODEL SIGNALS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF ANY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PROMPT A TILT TOWARD EC. FOR ALASKA, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
TRANSITION FROM NEAR-NORMAL IN THE WEST TO ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST, THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MONTHLY MODELS AND TOOLS AND EARLY
NOVEMBER DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA, ALIGNING WITH EL NINO
TELECONNECTIONS, LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND ABOVE-AVERAGE COASTAL SSTS
TO THE SOUTH. WESTERN ALASKA CARRIES HIGHER UNCERTAINTY, WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING WEAKENING PROBABILITIES, EC, OR ISOLATED TRANSITIONS TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN AN EC FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE, ASIDE FROM A SMALL NMME-BASED NEAR-NORMAL AREA ON THE WEST COAST.
THE NOVEMBER 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US AND THE EAST COAST, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH MMES SHOWING GREATER
THAN 70% CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN ISOLATED AREAS. ACCORDINGLY,
60 TO 70% PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS UP THE EAST COAST, BUT INCREASING INTER-MODEL SPREAD OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS A TRANSITION TO EC. SIMILARLY, DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTS IN EC DESIGNATIONS, AS LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS LEAD
TIME AMID HIGH MODEL SPREAD. THE WESTERN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
REMAINS SPATIALLY CONSISTENT AND ALIGNS WITH EL NINO, THOUGH SOME MODELS EXPAND
IT WEAKLY TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT EC ALONG THE COAST. THE EASTERN BELOW-NORMAL
SIGNAL IS MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH SOME MODELS LIKE CFSV2
EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF STATES. OVER ALASKA, A WEAK TREND-BASED
TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND
PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST. EC IS FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE STATE DUE TO WEAK, INCONSISTENT MODEL
SIGNALS AND NOVEMBER'S STATUS AS AN ENSO TRANSITION MONTH BEFORE BELOW-NORMAL
TELECONNECTIONS BECOME PREVALENT LATER IN WINTER.
FORECASTER: JOHNNA INFANTI
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV WILL BE ISSUED ON SAT OCTOBER 31 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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