129
FXUS07 KWBC 312000
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026
THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE THAT
NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE NIñO 3.4 REGION CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. THE MOST RECENTLY OBSERVED NIñO 3.4 INDEX CURRENTLY STANDS AT -0.3
DEGREES CELSIUS AS COMPARED TO -0.8 DEGREES CELSIUS WHEN THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK
WAS RELEASED. MOREOVER, EQUATORIAL UPPER OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC ARE AT ITS MOST POSITIVE VALUE IN AT LEAST A YEAR. THESE OBSERVATIONS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK
WHICH FORECASTS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TRANSITION FROM LA NIñA TO THE
NEUTRAL PHASE DURING THIS CURRENT JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING THE CURRENT
LONG DURATION NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) EVENT WELL INTO FEBRUARY. THE
COMBINATION OF ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND A NEGATIVE AO IS AMONG THE MOST
FAVORABLE SCENARIOS FOR WIDESPREAD ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS IN THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS), ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEST AND MAINLAND ALASKA. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS
FORECAST IN EARLY FEBRUARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. AS WE APPROACH THE
MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY, CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS BOTH DEPICT STRONG
ANOMALOUS RIDGING NEAR DAVIS STRAIT, TYPICAL OF A NEGATIVE AO PATTERN. THIS
NEGATIVE AO PATTERN WOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN US THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. MEANWHILE, A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND ALASKA AS THE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, CORRESPONDING TO A PREDICTED WEAKENING OF THE CURRENTLY
POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY, CPC'S WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS FORECAST STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
TO PERSIST OVER DAVIS STRAIT AND BAFFIN BAY, SUGGESTIVE OF A LONG DURATION
NEGATIVE AO THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE MONTH. THE FORECAST PATTERN ALSO DEPICTS A
RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN EXPANSION MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW IS GENERALLY DEPICTED ACROSS THE WEST. THE RIDGING FORECAST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA EARLY IN THE MONTH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FLATTEN LATER IN FEBRUARY,
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
AND THE PROSPECT OF A PROLONGED NEGATIVE AO PATTERN, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES, WHERE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MONTH. AS TROUGHING ACROSS MID-LATITUDE NORTH AMERICA
IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD LATER IN THE MONTH, INCREASED CHANCES
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE TRANSITION TO
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF A
NEGATIVE AO CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF FEBRUARY, MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, REPRESENTING A CHANGE FROM THE MID-MONTH
OUTLOOK. CONVERSELY, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE (MORE
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOCUSED ON PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE MONTH BEFORE A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. COMPLICATING MATTERS
IS THE POTENTIAL OF A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN US EARLY IN THE MONTH.
THIS CUT-OFF LOW, SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE, MAY PROMOTE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF IT. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPANDS
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH WPC'S SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND
CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST IN EARLY FEBRUARY LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT
BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE POTENTIALLY BREAKS
DOWN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASED
PACIFIC FLOW LATER IN FEBRUARY. THEREFORE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED LARGE
SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, AS PREDICTED MEAN NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INHIBITS WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF FEBRUARY.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN
THE PREDICTED MEAN LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.
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***** PREVIOUS MID-MONTH DISCUSSION BELOW
*****
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THE FEBRUARY 2026 OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A LA NIñA
ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN ENHANCED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) SIGNAL. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BUT ARE LIKELY (75 PERCENT
CHANCE) TO TRANSITION TO THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) NEUTRAL PHASE
DURING THE CURRENT JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) SEASON. THE LATEST WEEKLY NIñO
3.4 INDEX WAS AT -0.8 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHICH IS STILL IN LA NIñA TERRITORY.
HOWEVER, AT DEPTH, A POOL OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER HAS BEEN STEADILY
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE MJO INDEX HAS BEEN INCREASING IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. BY THE START OF FEBRUARY, MOST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICT THIS EMERGING
MJO EVENT TO PROPAGATE TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE/AFRICA OR THE INDIAN OCEAN.
RECENT ANALYSIS OF EXTRATROPICAL INDICES SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)
AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAVE BEEN MOSTLY NEGATIVE IN EARLY
JANUARY (ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ZERO IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) INDEX HAS TRANSITIONED FROM THE NEGATIVE TO THE
POSITIVE PHASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG
COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THESE TROPICAL (ENSO AND MJO)
AND EXTRATROPICAL (AO, NAO, AND PNA) DRIVERS DEPICT A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATED BY ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKLY
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS COMBINED
NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITE IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15
YEARS, WHICH ALSO FAVOR INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE SOUTHEAST, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES, TRENDS, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S), NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME), THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE
FORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL (CON) (WHICH INCLUDES BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT
AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE) FORM THE BASIS OF THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST
CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS), AND THE CFSV2 ALSO CONTRIBUTED. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SUCH AS EXTRATROPICAL SSTS, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND SNOW COVER ANOMALIES
WERE ALSO CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING FEBRUARY. HOWEVER,
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS DICHOTOMY BETWEEN THE COLDER STATISTICAL AND
WARMER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTS IN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN
RECENT TRENDS, ENSO, MJO, AND EXTRATROPICAL ANALOGS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOMALOUS COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THESE REGIONS. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) IS INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL.
CONVERSELY, STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECOND, BUT WEAKER, AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DUE PRIMARILY TO DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL SSTS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS MAY ALSO ASSIST IN INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT WEAK FOR THIS REGION AS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED WARMTH RELATIVE TO
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA DUE TO VERY GOOD SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, DYNAMICAL
MODEL SUPPORT IS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY MODESTLY INCREASED. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY
FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH C3S MODEL OUTPUT WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM NATURAL
ANALOG COMPOSITES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA).
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LA NIñA IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL AT SOME
POINT DURING JFM 2026, STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
STILL GENERALLY REFLECT A LA NIñA SIGNATURE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) IS INDICATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WHERE BOTH STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A SECOND REGION WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES AS WELL AS WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY THE C3S. TYPICAL OF LA NIñA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST FAVORING
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THESE TWO REGIONS HAS GOOD DYNAMICAL MODEL
SUPPORT FROM THE NMME. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALL OF WESTERN
ALASKA. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHILE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS AN EXTENSION OF THIS SIGNAL SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. CONVERSELY, A TILT OF PROBABILITIES TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE C3S.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR MAR ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU FEB 19 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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