735  
FXUS07 KWBC 161231  
PMD30D  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
830 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2025  
 
THE NOVEMBER 2025 OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A LA NIñA  
ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN ENHANCED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION  
(MJO) SIGNAL. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND BEYOND. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM A NEAREST  
NEIGHBOR ANALYSIS OF THE PAST 12 MONTHS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND UPPER OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS  
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE  
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND  
NORTHERN ALASKA. MEANWHILE, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE BASED  
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX HAS BEEN WEAK SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER BUT  
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EMERGING IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. BOTH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE  
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER  
FORECASTS (ECMWF) PREDICT THIS EMERGING MJO EVENT TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH  
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY THE START OF NOVEMBER. COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF WESTERN  
PACIFIC MJO EVENTS IS SUGGESTIVE OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS LATER IN THE MONTH (IF THE MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD  
PROPAGATION). RECENT ANALYSIS OF EXTRATROPICAL INDICES SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC  
OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAVE BEEN MOSTLY  
POSITIVE IN EARLY OCTOBER WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) INDEX HAS  
LARGELY BEEN NEGATIVE. ALL THREE OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE CURRENTLY  
IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING PHASES TO THE OPPOSITE SIGN FROM THAT OBSERVED  
EARLIER IN THE MONTH. COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT EVOLUTION  
OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE  
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE IN NOVEMBER, CONSISTENT WITH THE  
NEGATIVE PHASE OF BOTH THE AO AND NAO AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,  
SUGGESTIVE OF A RETURN TO A NEGATIVE PNA. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES  
DERIVED FROM THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES DEPICT  
A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER TO  
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. WEAKLY  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15 YEARS FAVOR  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHERN FLORIDA,  
THE NORTHEAST, CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF MAINLAND  
ALASKA. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IS CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT AT RECORD LOW  
LEVELS. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES, TRENDS, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE  
COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S), NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE  
(NMME), THE COUPLE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE FORECAST  
CONSOLIDATION TOOL (CON) (WHICH INCLUDES BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT AND  
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE) FORM THE BASIS OF THE NOVEMBER OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST CPC  
WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE  
FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF), GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM  
(GEFS), AND THE CFS ALSO CONTRIBUTED. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUCH AS  
EXTRATROPICAL SSTS, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND SNOW COVER ANOMALIES WERE ALSO  
CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE  
FROM THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL CPC WEEKS 3-4  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50  
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL  
GUIDANCE AND CPC’S WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS SHOW THE MOST SUPPORT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH  
LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE NMME AND CFSV2 SHOW LITTLE OR NO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURE SIGNALS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
ADDITIONALLY, COMPOSITES FROM THE PREDICTED ENHANCED MJO SIGNAL IN THE WESTERN  
PACIFIC ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES FROM  
THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A  
MEAN NEGATIVE AO PATTERN IN NOVEMBER. COMPOSITES FROM A COMBINED NEGATIVE AO  
AND LA NIñA STATE FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, WHICH ARE AT ODDS WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE C3S. FOR  
THESE REASONS EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES,  
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH ACROSS  
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS LA NIñA COMPOSITES DEPICT A WEAK OR EVEN COLD  
SIGNAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. MOREOVER, COMBINED NATURAL ANALOGS FROM THE  
CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL DRIVERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF  
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS REDUCED CONFIDENCE  
IS SUPPORTED BY THE NMME, WHICH HAS A WEAK TEMPERATURE SIGNAL ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FROM CPC’S WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS, WHICH HAS EC ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THESE REASONS, EC IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD, APPALACHIANS, GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLIGHT  
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA OWING LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS. DESPITE  
THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING SUGGESTED BY NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR  
AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WAS POSTED DUE TO SUPPORT FROM RECENT TRENDS, ABOVE NORMAL  
OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC, AND THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS.  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS ALASKA AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED AT BEST.  
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE NMME OFFERING A WEAK SIGNAL  
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE WITH A TILT TOWARD COLD FORECAST FOR INLAND  
AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND WHILE THE C3S AND CFSV2 ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE  
OF WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION OF  
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PRESENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A  
COHERENT PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE,  
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS AND OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL  
SEA ICE EXTENT.  
 
ONE OF THE MORE CONFIDENT ASPECTS IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF  
NOVEMBER IS THE PROSPECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AND LA NIñA COMPOSITES ARE ALL  
SUPPORTIVE OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A  
RESULT, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH THE  
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND AREA WHERE BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT MORE MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE SOUTHEAST AS SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS  
ROBUST. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THESE AREAS HAVE AMONG THE STRONGEST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE  
COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES. ADDITIONALLY THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION SHOWS  
A WET SIGNAL FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST  
CONFIDENT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE)  
CORRESPONDS TO THIS SIGNAL IN THE FINAL CONSOLATION COMBINED WITH NATURAL  
ANALOG COMPOSITES. THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS  
WESTWARD FROM HERE TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE  
LARGELY TO LA NIñA COMPOSITES. MOST OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS. AS WAS THE  
CASE WITH TEMPERATURE, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA IS LOW CONFIDENCE  
AS THE NMME HAS VIRTUALLY NO SIGNAL AT ALL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. DESPITE THIS  
UNCERTAINTY, AN AREA OF MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION WAS POSTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE  
FINAL CONSOLIDATION.  
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL  
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING  
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3  
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES  
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT  
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.  
 
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI OCTOBER 31 2025  
 
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.  

 
 
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