564  
FXUS07 KWBC 301900  
PMD30D  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2025  
 
THE UPDATE TO THE JULY 2025 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS IS BASED ON  
THE LATEST EVALUATION OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THAT INCLUDE NEAR-COASTAL SEA  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND SURFACE MOISTURE CHANGES IN BOTH THE SOIL AND  
VEGETATION. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT-, MEDIUM-,  
EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE IS UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK AS  
WELL AS MONTHLY INTEGRATED FORECASTS FROM THE CFS AND OTHER AVAILABLE S2S  
MODELS.  
 
THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS TIME SCALES MAINTAINS HIGH ODDS FOR  
MONTHLY MEAN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.  
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW-NORMAL NEAR COAST SSTS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF  
"EQUAL-CHANCES" OR (EC) FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA.  
INDICATIONS AT THE END OF THE MONTH FOR A ROBUST MONSOON CIRCULATION AND  
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DURING PERIODS OF THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JULY. THIS  
HAS LED TO THE LOWERING THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT  
FOR THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLIGHT INCREASES IN CHANCES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST  
AND MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
BELOW- AND NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH EXTREME HEAT IN MANY AREAS  
DURING THE LAST 7-10 DAYS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DEPLETED THE LARGE ANOMALIES OF  
ENHANCED SURFACE WETNESS IN THE REGION VIA BOTH SOIL EVAPORATION AND  
TRANSPIRATION. WITH THESE CHANGES ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE  
CONSISTENT WITH A MORE DRY AND LIKELY WARMER SURFACE, THE OUTLOOK NOW FAVORS  
(SLIGHTLY TILTED) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHERE EC WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  
 
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND WITH POTENTIAL EXTREME  
HEAT RETURNING TO TEXAS THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF  
TEXAS ARE INCREASED FROM THE MID-JUNE OUTLOOK.  
 
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES ARE MADE FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA. THESE INCLUDE THE REMOVAL  
OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE ADDITION OF  
ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE  
AND A SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
COAST.  
 
FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED WITH THE  
UPDATE AT THE END OF THE MONTH, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL. HIGH VARIABILITY IN  
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTIONS OF MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS  
EVIDENT FOR MUCH OF CONUS THEN AT MID-MONTH - ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.  
WITH THIS THE CASE, THE ONE HIGHLIGHTED AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS SEPARATED INTO REGIONS WHERE THE STRONGEST SIGNALS REMAIN AND  
ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AND/OR LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  
THE AREAS INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS.  
 
THE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REGION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS  
LARGELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR EC NOW FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC  
COASTAL AREAS FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA AND LESS WEST SIDE COVERAGE. AS  
NOTED ABOVE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON DURING PERIODS OF  
THE FIRST HALF OF JULY SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. FOR ALASKA, THE OUTLOOK  
REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  
 
*****************************************************************************  
 
****** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM MID-MONTH RELEASE ******  
 
 
*****************************************************************************  
 
THE JULY 2025 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON A  
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE [BOTH WEEK 3-4 AND INTEGRATED MONTHLY  
(NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COPERNICUS MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE  
SYSTEM (C3S))], STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS.  
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE COHERENT SUBSEASONAL TROPICAL VARIABILITY  
IN THE FORM OF ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE ACTIVITY, THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION  
(MJO) HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM ITS STATE IN LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.  
MOREOVER, FORECASTS OF THE MJO OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS DO NOT PREDICT ANY  
CLEAR, RELIABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE SIGNAL AND SO THE MJO DOES NOT PLAY A ROLE  
IN PREPARATION OF THE JULY OUTLOOKS. CURRENT LAND SURFACE STATES SUCH AS  
ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE DID CONTRIBUTE CONSIDERABLY TO THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE  
UPCOMING MONTH.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AS WELL AS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE GULF COAST, INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA,  
AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST FOR THE WESTERN U.S. WHERE  
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORED BY BOTH DYNAMICAL AND  
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LONG-TERM POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND DRIER  
THAN NORMAL SURFACE CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE PLAINS TO THE  
NORTHEAST ARE LOWER DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND  
VARYING SURFACE CONDITIONS.  
 
WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND SOME FORECAST TOOLS  
FAVOR A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GULF COAST AND  
FLORIDA.  
 
OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WEAK RIDGING IN DYNAMICAL MODEL  
GUIDANCE ELEVATES ODDS SLIGHTLY FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN  
PROXIMITY TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALTERNATIVELY, FORECAST TROUGHING DURING THE  
FIRST HALF OF JULY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS IN THE BERING SEA FAVORS AN AREA  
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A SMALL REGION IN SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA.  
 
A LARGE AREA OF QUITE WETTER THAN NORMAL SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM FREQUENT AND  
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THIS LATE WINTER AND SPRING WERE OBSERVED FROM THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS IS LIKELY TO  
OFFSET, TO SOME DEGREE, PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING JULY  
AND INTERJECT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EVENTUAL JULY MONTHLY MEAN  
TEMPERATURES. SO A FORECAST FOR "EQUAL-CHANCES" (EC) OF EITHER OF THE THREE  
CATEGORIES IS FORECAST FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, TENNESSEE  
VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS.  
 
FOR PRECIPITATION, BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LONG-TERM  
NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION TRENDS, IN SOME AREAS, AND DRIER THAN NORMAL SURFACE  
CONDITIONS SUPPORT ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL JULY MONTHLY TOTAL  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS IS FOR PARTS OF MONTANA, IDAHO AND WYOMING.  
 
FORECAST TROUGHING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY CENTERED IN THE BERING SEA  
SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN  
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MAJORITY OF NMME AND C3S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS  
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS WET SIGNAL.  
 
LONG-TERM POSITIVE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND NMME AND C3S MONTHLY DYNAMICAL  
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY,  
MID-ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST OVERALL FOR  
THIS REGION.  
 
LARGE VARIABILITY FROM BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND QUITE  
UNUSUAL LATE SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS, MAKES THE  
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THIS, THE  
MOST APPROPRIATE FORECAST IN THIS AREA FOR JULY 2025 IS EC AS EITHER OF THE  
THREE CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY GIVEN THE ABOVE INFORMATION AT THIS POINT  
IN MID-JUNE.  
 
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK  
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING  
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3  
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES  
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT  
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.  
 
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUG ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 17 2025  
 
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.  

 
 
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