226
FXUS07 KWBC 311900
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2025
AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER 2025, A LA NIñA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS THE
LATEST WEEKLY NIñO 3.4 INDEX STOOD AT -0.6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AN
ACTIVE MADDEN JUILAN OSCILLATION (MJO) SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE MARITIME
CONTINENT AND IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY TO MID
NOVEMBER (CORRESPONDING TO PHASES 5 AND 6 IN WHEELER-HENDON (WH) PHASE SPACE).
THEREAFTER, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS TO IF THIS SIGNAL WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER
INTO WH PHASE 7 BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER, THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE WHILE THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICA (PNA) HAS BEEN MOSTLY POSITIVE. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) HAS
BEEN MORE VARIABLE, OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE PHASES.
COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM THESE TROPICAL (ENSO AND MJO) AND EXTRATROPICAL (NAO,
PNA, AND AO) DRIVERS GENERALLY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA MEAN HEIGHTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEAN BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AS MJO AND ENSO COMPOSITES MOSTLY OPPOSE
EACH OTHER. ALL COMPOSITES GENERALLY AGREE ON STRONG RIDGING IN THE EASTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE STATISTICAL
COMPOSITES. THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER IS PREDICTED TO FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A PAIR OF
TROUGHS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DEPARTS. AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER, CPCS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FEATURES
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
(PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE). FINALLY, DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NOVEMBER, CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOK FAVORS A TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH
OF ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING MUCH OF THE MONTH
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60
PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT BASIN AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. IN ADDITION, CPCS 6-10 DAY AND
WEEK-2 OUTLOOKS INDICATE THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MID-NOVEMBER, WHICH FURTHER INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A VARIABLE PATTERN IS FAVORED WITH TROUGHING EARLY IN THE
MONTH POTENTIALLY GIVING WAY TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AS THE MONTH
PROGRESSES. DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL TRANSITIONAL PATTERN, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF
BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ALASKA IS ALSO AN AREA WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTED BY PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DEPICTED BY DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE (PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS) DURING MUCH OF THE
MONTH. HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS A
WARMER SOLUTION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF ALASKA, WHICH REDUCES CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN COASTAL AREAS. DUE TO CONFLICTING STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, EC IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALASKA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH CPCS 6-10
DAY AND WEEK-2 OUTLOOKS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CPCS 6-10, WEEK-2, AND
WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS ALL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THESE
AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST (PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BAY AREA) ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE UPWARD OF 33 TO 50 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTALS IN
THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER ALONE. FOR THESE REASONS, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWARD
TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND.
CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. DESPITE PREDICTED RAINFALL DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST, A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE MONTH AS A
WHOLE AS A TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED IN CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS.
THIS SLIGHT TILT TOWARD DRY IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY IN THE MONTH IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH CPCS 6-10 DAY, WEEK-2, AND WEEKS 3-4
OUTLOOKS.
******************************************************************************
***** PREVIOUS MID-MONTH DISCUSSION BELOW
*****
******************************************************************************
THE NOVEMBER 2025 OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A LA NIñA
ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN ENHANCED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) SIGNAL. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND BEYOND. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM A NEAREST
NEIGHBOR ANALYSIS OF THE PAST 12 MONTHS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND UPPER OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND
NORTHERN ALASKA. MEANWHILE, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE BASED
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX HAS BEEN WEAK SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER BUT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EMERGING IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. BOTH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS (ECMWF) PREDICT THIS EMERGING MJO EVENT TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY THE START OF NOVEMBER. COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF WESTERN
PACIFIC MJO EVENTS IS SUGGESTIVE OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER IN THE MONTH (IF THE MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROPAGATION). RECENT ANALYSIS OF EXTRATROPICAL INDICES SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
POSITIVE IN EARLY OCTOBER WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) INDEX HAS
LARGELY BEEN NEGATIVE. ALL THREE OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING PHASES TO THE OPPOSITE SIGN FROM THAT OBSERVED
EARLIER IN THE MONTH. COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT EVOLUTION
OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE IN NOVEMBER, CONSISTENT WITH THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF BOTH THE AO AND NAO AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
SUGGESTIVE OF A RETURN TO A NEGATIVE PNA. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES
DERIVED FROM THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES DEPICT
A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. WEAKLY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15 YEARS FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHERN FLORIDA,
THE NORTHEAST, CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IS CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT AT RECORD LOW
LEVELS. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES, TRENDS, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE
COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S), NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
(NMME), THE COUPLE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE FORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOL (CON) (WHICH INCLUDES BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE) FORM THE BASIS OF THE NOVEMBER OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST CPC
WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF), GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
(GEFS), AND THE CFS ALSO CONTRIBUTED. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUCH AS
EXTRATROPICAL SSTS, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND SNOW COVER ANOMALIES WERE ALSO
CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL CPC WEEKS 3-4
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS SHOW THE MOST SUPPORT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE NMME AND CFSV2 SHOW LITTLE OR NO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE SIGNALS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ADDITIONALLY, COMPOSITES FROM THE PREDICTED ENHANCED MJO SIGNAL IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES FROM
THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A
MEAN NEGATIVE AO PATTERN IN NOVEMBER. COMPOSITES FROM A COMBINED NEGATIVE AO
AND LA NIñA STATE FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH ARE AT ODDS WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE C3S. FOR
THESE REASONS EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS LA NIñA COMPOSITES DEPICT A WEAK OR EVEN COLD
SIGNAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. MOREOVER, COMBINED NATURAL ANALOGS FROM THE
CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL DRIVERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS REDUCED CONFIDENCE
IS SUPPORTED BY THE NMME, WHICH HAS A WEAK TEMPERATURE SIGNAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FROM CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS, WHICH HAS EC ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THESE REASONS, EC IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, APPALACHIANS, GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OWING LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS. DESPITE
THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING SUGGESTED BY NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WAS POSTED DUE TO SUPPORT FROM RECENT TRENDS, ABOVE NORMAL
OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC, AND THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS ALASKA AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED AT BEST.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE NMME OFFERING A WEAK SIGNAL
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE WITH A TILT TOWARD COLD FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND WHILE THE C3S AND CFSV2 ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION OF
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PRESENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COHERENT PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE,
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS AND OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL
SEA ICE EXTENT.
ONE OF THE MORE CONFIDENT ASPECTS IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER IS THE PROSPECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AND LA NIñA COMPOSITES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND AREA WHERE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT MORE MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE SOUTHEAST AS SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS
ROBUST. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THESE AREAS HAVE AMONG THE STRONGEST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE
COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES. ADDITIONALLY THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION SHOWS
A WET SIGNAL FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST
CONFIDENT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE)
CORRESPONDS TO THIS SIGNAL IN THE FINAL CONSOLATION COMBINED WITH NATURAL
ANALOG COMPOSITES. THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM HERE TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE
LARGELY TO LA NIñA COMPOSITES. MOST OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS. AS WAS THE
CASE WITH TEMPERATURE, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AS THE NMME HAS VIRTUALLY NO SIGNAL AT ALL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY, AN AREA OF MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WAS POSTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
FINAL CONSOLIDATION.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR DEC ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU NOV 20 2025
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page