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FXUS07 KWBC 181231
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2026
THE JULY 2026 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON
DYNAMICAL MODELS, LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES, DECADAL
TRENDS, AND LAND SURFACE CONDITIONS. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH THE LATEST WEEKLY SST DEPARTURES IN
THE NIñO3.4 REGION REACHING 0.9 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE-AVERAGE. AN EL NINO
ADVISORY IS ACTIVE, INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE
CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO. ALTHOUGH AN EL NINO ADVISORY IS ACTIVE, ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE JULY 2026 OUTLOOKS IS CONSIDERED MINOR BECAUSE THE EPISODE RECENTLY
EMERGED AND SUMMER TELECONNECTIONS ARE TYPICALLY WEAK. THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO), WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE,
HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED, THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD REEMERGE OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC IN EARLY JULY BUT DISAGREE ON THE POTENTIAL AMPLITUDE. DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND WEAK SUMMER TELECONNECTIONS, THE MJO AND EL NINO SERVE AS
SECONDARY FACTORS TO ADJUST PROBABILITIES RATHER THAN PRIMARY DRIVERS.
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE INCLUDES THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME),
THE COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S) MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, MONTHLY
FORECASTS FROM THE COUPLED FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AN EXPERIMENTAL
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (MLR) TOOL WHICH ESTIMATES THE INFLUENCES OF THE EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO), MJO, AND DECADAL TRENDS, AND A CONSOLIDATION
THAT INCLUDES INFLUENCES OF ENSO, DECADAL TRENDS, AND CALIBRATED NMME OUTPUT.
WEEKS 3-4 FORECASTS FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 12
(GEFSV12), THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF), AND
CFSV2 MODELS THAT COVER THE PERIOD TO ABOUT MID-JULY ARE ALSO CONSIDERED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. PROBABILITIES ARE MOST ENHANCED
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, REACHING 60 TO 70% CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MODELS DEPICT REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS PROBABILITY,
WITH BOTH THE NMME AND C3S ENSEMBLES FAVORING THIS SIGNAL, AS WELL AS
CONSISTENCY ACROSS DAILY RUNS OF THE CFSV2. FURTHERMORE, THIS SIGNAL IS
REINFORCED BY BELOW-AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE, WHICH CAN ENHANCE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND ABOVE-AVERAGE DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE EARLY PART OF
JULY IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL AS DEPICTED IN THE WEEKS 3-4
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK RELEASED THIS PAST FRIDAY. SIMILAR REASONING SUPPORTS THE
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES THAT STRETCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS;
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THERE DUE TO THE CHANCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND WEAKER MODEL PROBABILITIES. PROBABILITIES ARE
ALSO ENHANCED (50 TO 60% CHANCES) OVER COASTAL PARTS OF THE GULF STATES AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODELS WERE AGAIN CONSISTENT ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL PARTS OF THE GULF STATES, AND THE CHANCE OF EARLY
JULY EXTREME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY SOILS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. PERSISTENTLY COOLER SSTS
MODERATES PROBABILITIES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL FAVORED. AN AREA OF EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF
ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FROM THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. CONTRARY TO
THE CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS, THIS REGION HAD LOWER PROBABILITIES IN MODELS, WITH CFSV2 PREDICTING
WEAKLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE
PRIOR DAILY RUNS, THOUGH INCONSISTENTLY. MOREOVER, THOUGH THE INFLUENCE FROM EL
NINO IS WEAK IN SUMMER, IT MAY STILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STEMMING FROM EL NINO IS TYPICALLY WEAK AND CFSV2 SHOWS
INCONSISTENCY IN THIS SIGNAL, A TILT TOWARD EC IS FAVORED RATHER THAN
BELOW-NORMAL. TOOLS ARE MIXED OVER ALASKA, HOWEVER, A WEAK ABOVE-NORMAL SIGNAL
EMERGES FROM THE MODELS DESPITE INTER-MODEL SPREAD. IN ADDITION, THOUGH WEAK,
THE SUMMER INFLUENCE FROM A STRONG EL NINO IS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
AND DECADAL TRENDS LEAN ABOVE-NORMAL. DESPITE THE MIXED DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS, A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (33 TO 40% CHANCE) IS
INDICATED OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLAND OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EC
SURROUNDS THIS WEAK PROBABILITY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES GIVEN PERSISTENT BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS SURROUNDING ALASKA.
COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES, SIGNALS IN MODELS AND TOOLS ARE MORE MIXED WHEN
CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES ARE OVERALL LOW AND THERE ARE
LARGER AREAS OF EC. HOWEVER, A FEW AREAS OF CONSISTENCY STAND OUT WHEN
REVIEWING ALL OF THE SUPPORT. A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH
PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. THE POSITIONING OF THIS
ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NINO
SUMMER, WHICH CAN SHIFT THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD OF
ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. WHILE EL NINO SUMMERS, PARTICULARLY DURING AN
EMERGING EVENT, CAN TILT TOWARD BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA, MODELS FROM THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2 FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE WEEK 3-4
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALSO FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS ENTIRE
REGION; THUS, PROBABILITIES ARE DAMPED BUT REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL RATHER THAN EC
OR BELOW-NORMAL. DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING C3S, NMME, AND CFSV2 FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THOUGH WITH WEAK
PROBABILITIES, AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. SIMILAR REASONING SUPPORTS THE TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN AREA OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IS INDICATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE OHIO,
TENNESSEE, AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. OVER ALASKA, TOOLS WERE AGAIN
QUITE MIXED AND DID NOT SHOW MUCH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EMERGES IN NMME AND C3S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE, ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY THE OCN TOOL. THE
WEAK TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: JOHNNA INFANTI
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUL WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE JUNE 30 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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