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FXUS07 KWBC 191330
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICA REGION JUST
PRIOR TO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND PENETRATIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
(I.E. STRONG -AO PROJECTION) DOMINATED THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY AND EARLY
FEBRUARY. THE STRONG BLOCK IMPACTING THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC-GREENLAND REGION,
ETC. DISSIPATED AND ALLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND AN EASING OF THE STRONG
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN MID FEBRUARY, TROUGHING REPLACED A
PERSISTENT RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A MUCH MORE STORMY, ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ENTERING EARLY MARCH WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFTED STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS TO FIRST ORDER - CONSISTENT WITH A +AO AND -PNA - QUITE
OPPOSITE OF WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN EARLY-MID FEBRUARY. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD SHIFTED WESTERLIES AND MORE AIR OF
PACIFIC, MARITIME ORIGIN ENTERING THE CONUS SUPPORTS PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.S. AS FORECAST BY ECMWF, GEFS AND JMA
SUBSEASONAL MODEL GUIDANCE INTO MID-MARCH.
THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AND INTO EARLY MARCH IS REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS - RIDGING/BLOCKING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR
THE DATE LINE AND TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
- AS ANOMALOUS ENHANCED CONVECTION REMAINS OBSERVED NEAR INDONESIA. THE MJO HAS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT COHERENT IN RECENT WEEKS AS OTHER MODES OF COHERENT TROPICAL
SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY HAVE FOCUSED THE ANOMALOUS ENHANCED CONVECTION AT THE
MARITIME CONTINENT. MODEL RMM FORECASTS ARE MIXED WITH ANY MJO STRENGTHENING
AND ORGANIZED EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THE ECMWF FORECAST IS FOR NO CLEAR
ORGANIZED SIGNAL, WHILE THE GEFS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION
BUT WITH LARGE FORECAST SPREAD. THE STATE OF THE MJO WILL BE REVIEWED PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE MONTH UPDATE. OTHER FACTORS CONSIDERED IN PREPARATION OF THE
OUTLOOK ARE POTENTIAL REMAINING SNOWPACK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, EXTENSIVE
SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE SNOW DROUGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ABOVE CLIMATE FACTORS AND EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHERN FAR WEST, SOUTHWEST, MOST OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE HIGHEST
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND TOOLS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LESS FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHARP DEMARCATION IN THE FORECAST ANOMALOUS HEIGHT PATTERN IN
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA MAY ALLOW COLDER AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
AND SO A NARROW REGION OF SLIGHTLY FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. EQUAL-CHANCES (EC)
FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME TROUGHING AND SNOWPACK INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
STRONG RIDGING FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE WEST OF ALASKA SUPPORTS AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH STRONG ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND SO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. FOR NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, TRENDS IN BELOW-NORMAL SEA ICE COVERAGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
NEAR COAST SSTS KEEP THESE AREAS EC FOR THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK, ALTHOUGH THIS
FORCING IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS FEBRUARY THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
FOR PRECIPITATION, A NORTHWARD SHIFTED STORM TRACK ENTERING MARCH AS INDICATED
BY EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH IN THE COMING WEEK AND ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS AREA MEETS ANOTHER REGION OF
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
CONSISTENT WITH RESIDUAL LA NINA AND POTENTIAL MJO INFLUENCED PRECIPITATION,
ALONG WITH FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONUS.
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON SAT FEBRUARY 28 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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