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FXUS07 KWBC 161231
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2025
THE NOVEMBER 2025 OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A LA NIñA
ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN ENHANCED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) SIGNAL. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND BEYOND. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM A NEAREST
NEIGHBOR ANALYSIS OF THE PAST 12 MONTHS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND UPPER OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND
NORTHERN ALASKA. MEANWHILE, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE BASED
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX HAS BEEN WEAK SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER BUT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EMERGING IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. BOTH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS (ECMWF) PREDICT THIS EMERGING MJO EVENT TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH
THE WESTERN PACIFIC BY THE START OF NOVEMBER. COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF WESTERN
PACIFIC MJO EVENTS IS SUGGESTIVE OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER IN THE MONTH (IF THE MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROPAGATION). RECENT ANALYSIS OF EXTRATROPICAL INDICES SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
POSITIVE IN EARLY OCTOBER WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) INDEX HAS
LARGELY BEEN NEGATIVE. ALL THREE OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING PHASES TO THE OPPOSITE SIGN FROM THAT OBSERVED
EARLIER IN THE MONTH. COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT EVOLUTION
OF THESE EXTRATROPICAL INDICES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE IN NOVEMBER, CONSISTENT WITH THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF BOTH THE AO AND NAO AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
SUGGESTIVE OF A RETURN TO A NEGATIVE PNA. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES
DERIVED FROM THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES DEPICT
A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. WEAKLY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ILLUSTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15 YEARS FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHERN FLORIDA,
THE NORTHEAST, CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IS CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT AT RECORD LOW
LEVELS. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES, TRENDS, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE
COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S), NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
(NMME), THE COUPLE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE FORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOL (CON) (WHICH INCLUDES BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE) FORM THE BASIS OF THE NOVEMBER OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST CPC
WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF), GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
(GEFS), AND THE CFS ALSO CONTRIBUTED. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUCH AS
EXTRATROPICAL SSTS, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND SNOW COVER ANOMALIES WERE ALSO
CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL CPC WEEKS 3-4
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS SHOW THE MOST SUPPORT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE NMME AND CFSV2 SHOW LITTLE OR NO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE SIGNALS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ADDITIONALLY, COMPOSITES FROM THE PREDICTED ENHANCED MJO SIGNAL IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES FROM
THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL INDICES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A
MEAN NEGATIVE AO PATTERN IN NOVEMBER. COMPOSITES FROM A COMBINED NEGATIVE AO
AND LA NIñA STATE FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH ARE AT ODDS WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE C3S. FOR
THESE REASONS EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS LA NIñA COMPOSITES DEPICT A WEAK OR EVEN COLD
SIGNAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. MOREOVER, COMBINED NATURAL ANALOGS FROM THE
CURRENT EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL DRIVERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS REDUCED CONFIDENCE
IS SUPPORTED BY THE NMME, WHICH HAS A WEAK TEMPERATURE SIGNAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FROM CPCS WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS, WHICH HAS EC ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THESE REASONS, EC IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, APPALACHIANS, GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OWING LARGELY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS. DESPITE
THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING SUGGESTED BY NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WAS POSTED DUE TO SUPPORT FROM RECENT TRENDS, ABOVE NORMAL
OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC, AND THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS ALASKA AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED AT BEST.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE NMME OFFERING A WEAK SIGNAL
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE WITH A TILT TOWARD COLD FORECAST FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND WHILE THE C3S AND CFSV2 ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF WARMTH ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION OF
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PRESENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COHERENT PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE,
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS AND OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL
SEA ICE EXTENT.
ONE OF THE MORE CONFIDENT ASPECTS IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER IS THE PROSPECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE NMME, C3S, AND CFSV2, AND LA NIñA COMPOSITES ARE ALL
SUPPORTIVE OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND AREA WHERE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT MORE MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE SOUTHEAST AS SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS
ROBUST. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THESE AREAS HAVE AMONG THE STRONGEST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE
COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES. ADDITIONALLY THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION SHOWS
A WET SIGNAL FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST
CONFIDENT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE)
CORRESPONDS TO THIS SIGNAL IN THE FINAL CONSOLATION COMBINED WITH NATURAL
ANALOG COMPOSITES. THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM HERE TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE
LARGELY TO LA NIñA COMPOSITES. MOST OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS. AS WAS THE
CASE WITH TEMPERATURE, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AS THE NMME HAS VIRTUALLY NO SIGNAL AT ALL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY, AN AREA OF MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WAS POSTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
FINAL CONSOLIDATION.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI OCTOBER 31 2025
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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