891
FXUS21 KWNC 291754
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 29 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PROGRESSIVE SPRING PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
APRIL. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXITING THE EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK-2 BUT NOT
BEFORE BRINGING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). FOLLOWING THE FRONT, A QUICK CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND ADJACENT AREAS, MON, APR 6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS, FRI-SUN, APR 10-12.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 01 - SUNDAY APRIL 05:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY APRIL 06 - SUNDAY APRIL 12: BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL MODEL
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES FAVOR
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BOOKENDED BY A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS
RIDGE CENTERS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
MEAN SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THERE IS
WIDER SPREAD BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2
BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH TIME. THIS INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO APPROACH WIDESPREAD RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEST HAS EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, THE ECENS INDICATES POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS, WHILE THE GEFS MAINTAINS A MORE COMPACT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. BOTH TOOLS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TROUGHING TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST AND THEN CENTRAL CONUS AT THE END OF WEEK-2.
TIED TO THE PREDICTED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE EAST EARLY IN WEEK-2,
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) AND UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. TOOLS GENERALLY INDICATE A 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING
1 INCH ACROSS THIS REGION, MOSTLY FALLING ON DAY 8. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS A
THREAT WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
THE FAVORED TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE DEEPER TROUGHING FAVORED IN THE GEFS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S., THE GEFS PET FEATURES INCREASED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE MEAN SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE
ECENS PET AND UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE MAINTAIN LESS ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES. THE
WEEK-2 EXTENDED RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS A WHOLE. ONE OR TWO DAYS OF ANOMALOUS FROSTS OR
FREEZES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO INDICATE A HAZARD.
ACROSS HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
TO THE STATE DURING MID-MARCH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE
TRADE WIND REGIME, AND ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ANY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK LOOKS TO BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN
THE PETS, AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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