064
FXUS21 KWNC 081854
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 08 2026
SYNOPSIS: A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST INCREASES THE ODDS
FOR PERIODIC HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SANTA ANA WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE, EAST OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, EPISODES OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST AND
EASTERN CANADA AND U.S. MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST,
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN LATE IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING
SEA, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA COMBINED WITH ADJACENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
YUKON MAY BRING LINGERING HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
OF ALASKA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR KONA LOWS BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
PERIODIC HIGH WIND GUSTS TO PARTS OF HAWAII, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FRI-SUN, JAN 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, FRI-THU, JAN 16-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, FRI-TUE, JAN 16-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST, APPALACHIANS, AND LEE OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO, FRI-TUE, JAN 16-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, SUN-THU, JAN 18-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA, FRI JAN 16.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 11 - THURSDAY JANUARY 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 16 - THURSDAY JANUARY 22: THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING WEEK-2, INDICATING AN AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, ALASKA AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, WITH TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN GENERAL
MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH AND DEEPENING QUICKER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WESTWARD, WITH
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SANTA ANA
WIND EPISODES FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT LEAST A 30% (20%) CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 20 MPH IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, JAN 16-18. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT WETNESS THERE SHOULD
QUELL ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SERIES OF
ADJACENT SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT INCREASED CHANCES FOR EPISODES
OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER CENTRAL U.S.
FROM CENTRAL CANADA, FURTHER SUPPORTING HIGH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, JAN 16-22. MULTIPLE PETS
SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25
MPH IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND
UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS INDICATING ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS IN THE REGION.
ACROSS THE EAST, MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE BORDER OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. / CANADA. THESE SERIES OF LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUPPORT INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED WINDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND APPALACHIANS. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC,
APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHEAST, JAN 16-20. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SURFACE
LOWS, THUS A BROAD AREA AND PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THIS RISK. THE GEFS AND
ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS INCLUDING HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO THE LEE OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS CONTINUED FOR THESE
REGIONS JAN 16-20. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SOME RISK AREAS OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY IN WEEK-2. MULTIPLE MODELS FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SINKING FURTHER SOUTH AND DEVELOPING EARLIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO MODELS AND ASSOCIATED TOOLS HAVING INCREASED
ANOMALOUS COLD SIGNALS EARLIER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL. THE SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS HAZARD IS ALSO EXPANDED IN TIME, VALID JAN
18-22. MULTIPLE MODEL PETS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND -10 DEG F. WIND CHILLS COULD FALL BELOW -20 DEG F IN THIS
REGION.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEMS TO
AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF THESE STORMS. IN GENERAL, THERE IS INCREASED POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION, SNOWFALL, AND HIGH WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS (INCLUDING GAP WINDS LOCALLY) IS DESIGNATED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, NOW ONLY VALID FOR JAN 16. MUCH OF THE IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO WEEK-2. MULTIPLE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK
AREA.
A SERIES OF KONA LOWS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN SUM FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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