260
FXUS21 KWNC 131758
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS AND
ECENS MODELS REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HAZARDS. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO MOSTLY OCCUR
DURING WEEK-1, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA EXPERIENCING
LINGERING HEAT AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. THERE ARE CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCES
FOR EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MAY BRING EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND LEE OF THE
ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT HIGH WINDS IN THESE REGIONS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS, THU,
MAY 21.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA, THU-FRI, MAY
21-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND GREAT PLAINS,
THU-MON, MAY 21-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND OREGON, THU-SAT,
MAY 21-23.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MAY 16 - WEDNESDAY MAY 20:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MAY 21 - WEDNESDAY MAY 27: MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EXPANDING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH
POSSIBLE HEAT LINGERING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2
OVER A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR
PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS MAY 21, WHERE THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) AND UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE
OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 90
DEG F.
ACROSS THE WEST, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN, WITH THE ECENS FAVORING POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES EXTENDING
FURTHER INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND FOR A LONGER
DURATION INTO WEEK-2. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THE GEFS DEVELOPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD TRANSLATING TO THE ECENS HAVING GREATER SIGNALS
FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST THAN THE GEFS. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS MAINTAINED FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY
OF CALIFORNIA MAY 21-22, WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
90 DEG F. UNCALIBRATED ECENS FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASED
CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEG F ACROSS THE RISK AREA ON DAY 8 (MAY
21).
ENHANCED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LOCALLY AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS REGARDING THESE FEATURES, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DESIGNATE
ANY AREAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SURFACE LOW FORMATION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH ADJACENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE EAST, TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS MAY LEAD TO EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. A BROAD AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GREAT PLAINS, MAY 21-25. THESE AREAS ARE INDICATED AS HAVING
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE IN THE PETS
AND/OR POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KTS (~ 40 MPH). ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK IN
SOME AREAS. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS SOME AREAS IN THE
GREAT PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION HAVING A MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1.
A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS REMAINS POSTED OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON MAY 21-23, WHERE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE SURFACE GUIDANCE.
IN ALASKA, THE TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND
ICE JAM FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS
CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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