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FXUS21 KWNC 141912
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 14 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 LEADING TO WIDESPREAD UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEVEL OF HEAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH COMPARED TO THE LATE
WEEK-1 PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DECREASING. THE EARLY-SEASON
WARMTH IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE SPRING SNOWMELT WHERE SEASONAL SNOWPACK HAS BEEN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FAVORS
INCREASED WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FAVORS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LEADING TO
ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS, SUN, MAR 22.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUN-TUE, MAR 22-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
SUN-MON, MAR 22-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, SUN-TUE, MAR 22-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUN-TUE, MAR 22-24.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 17 - SATURDAY MARCH 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 22 - SATURDAY MARCH 28: DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A PERIOD OF EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-1. THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO
PEAK LATE IN WEEK-1 TIED TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, WITH LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST INDICATING
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +20 TO +30 DEG F ON DAYS 6
AND 7 (MAR 20-21) OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
BY DAY-8 (MAR 22), THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT DECREASING POSITIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, A SIGN THAT THAT MOST SUBSTANTIAL WARMTH IS BEGINNING TO
WANE. THE MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS POSTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, DESERT
SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS FOR MAR 22 AS THERE
IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THESE REGIONS. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) DEPICT SOME AREAS WITH A 40-70 PERCENT
CHANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE 98TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S TO 80S DEG F ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE 90S
DEG F OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST AREAS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BY DAY-9 (MAR 23), THERE IS A NOTABLE DROP IN THE PET PERCENTILE
PROBABILITIES AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE, THE MODERATE RISK IS DISCONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MAR 24.
LATER IN WEEK-2, THE 0Z GEFS SHIFTS TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO CLOSER
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE
INSTEAD WEAKER WITH ANY TROUGHING AND INCREASE POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN WEEK-2. WHILE THE GEFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR
COLDER CONDITIONS EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OUTCOMES WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO ELEVATED
SIGNALS FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS AND UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST TIED TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2,
PRECLUDES ANY ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ACROSS THE WEST.
WHILE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO EXPERIENCE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, A RELATIVELY COLDER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR GREENLAND. THIS
EMERGING PATTERN RESEMBLES A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(-NAO), WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING WEEK-2 OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE 0Z
GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL DEPICT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH ADDED
SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF WIND PETS WHICH DEPICT AT LEAST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE WIND SPEEDS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND
20-MPH, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS IS POSTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, MAR 22-23.
RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE WEST OF ALASKA COMBINED
WITH TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR, IT IS BECOMING HARDER TO REACH HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
STATE. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HAVING PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 20 PERCENT FOR
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 10TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) FOCUSED
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CORRESPONDING UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. THESE SIGNALS SUPPORT
A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, MAR 22-24. SOUTHEAST ALASKA
IS REMOVED FROM THE SLIGHT RISK GIVEN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW REDUCING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE INTERIOR.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND,
WITH THE PETS SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS, MAR 22-24. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM FAVORS INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDS THRESHOLDS.
FOLLOWING A KONA LOW EVENT ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THAT LOOKS TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS, HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING TO HAWAII, ENSEMBLES DEPICT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO RELOAD TEMPORARILY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY
EARLY WEEK-2, WHICH MAY INDUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE ECENS AND
GEFS PETS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. IF IT MATERIALIZES AS
EXPECTED, THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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