861
FXUS21 KWNC 191812
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS: MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY IN WEEK-2, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
TENNESSEE, OHIO, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST U.S., MON-WED, APR 27-29.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 22 - SUNDAY APRIL 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY APRIL 27 - SUNDAY MAY 03: ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS
FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AS WELL
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE LEE OF ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLIFIED BUT FORM WHILE MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN
THE WAKE OF A SIMILAR SYSTEM ACTIVE DURING WEEK-1. THIS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE BOTH FAIRLY BULLISH,
WITH >50% PROBABILITIES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 1” EARLY
IN WEEK-2. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ALSO
INDICATE A SIMILAR REGION HIGHLIGHTED WITH >20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 1”. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE, OHIO, AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST U.S.,
VALID APR 27-29.
SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY THIS PASSING SYSTEM AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEED SHOW NO
SIGNAL AT THE 25MPH THRESHOLD, WHICH PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND
HAZARD. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME SIGNAL
AT THE 20MPH THRESHOLD, IS CURRENTLY IN DROUGHT AND WITH DRY AND STRESSED
VEGETATION. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY, AND CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRE
INITIATION.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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