058
FXUS21 KWNC 221842
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 22 2026
SYNOPSIS: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST
COAST IS PREDICTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS, SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL
CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING WEEK-2. ADDITIONALLY, AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW AND SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FAVORS AN
INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S.
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST AT
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST
OR UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. A STORMY
PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA, AS A SERIES OF STRONG CYCLONIC SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE BERING SEA AND THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF CONCERN WOULD
BE HIGH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, SUN-MON, NOV 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS,
SAT-MON, OCT 31-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
SUN-TUE, NOV 1-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, SAT-MON,
OCT 31-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, SAT-THU, OCT 31-NOV 5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
TUE-THU, NOV 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGES,
SAT-THU, OCT 31-NOV 5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, TUE-THU. NOV 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, SAT-TUE, OCT 31-NOV 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
TUE-THU, NOV 3-5.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-SUN, OCT 30-NOV 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST,
FRI-MON, OCT 30-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, FRI-SAT, OCT 30-NOV 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
AND ALEUTIANS, FRI-SAT, OCT 30-OCT 31.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 25 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 30 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 05: A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BRING ENHANCED MOIST FLOW TO PARTS OF THE WEST DURING WEEK-2,
SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA, NOV
1-2 WHERE THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST
A 70-80% (40-50%) CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATES 3-DAY
TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN PARTS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, OCT 31-NOV 2 WHERE
THE ECENS (GEFS) PET INDICATES AT LEAST A 50 (40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING. FURTHER
NORTH, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS CONTINUED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, NOV 1-3, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED
TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES (6 INCHES LOCALLY).
WITH THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED MOIST
FLOW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SLIGHT RISKS
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
OCT 31-NOV 2, CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, OCT 31-NOV 5, AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NOV 3-5. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, WITH
SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TOTALS THE ECENS INDICATES 3-DAY TOTALS
EXCEEDING ONE INCH BROADLY ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND OREGON, SHIFTING NORTH WITH
TIME, WHEREAS THE GEFS INDICATES TOTALS REACHING 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COASTAL CALIFORNIA BUT KEEPS HIGHER TOTALS (1 INCH OR GREATER) FURTHER NORTH
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDING SLIGHT RISKS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGES, OCT
31-NOV 5, AND THE CASCADES, NOV 3-5. THESE RISK AREAS MAY RECEIVE 3-DAY
SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 4-6 INCHES. WITH SURFACE LOWS PREDICTED NEAR AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER INLAND, SLIGHT RISKS OF
HIGH WINDS ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, OCT 31-NOV 3, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NOV 3-5. THE ECENS PET
INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
AND 25 MPH, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS INDICATING WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS (ABOUT 23 MPH).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLE
SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A
POTENTIALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
(20-25 MPH) FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, OCT
30-NOV 1.
POTENTIAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST SUPPORTS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
DELINEATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
OCT 30-NOV 1 WHERE PETS INDICATE 30-40% CHANCES OR GREATER OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE. A BROADER AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST, OCT 30-NOV 2, WHERE PETS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA
TO WESTERN ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS, OCT 30-31,
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE ECENS, WHERE THE PET AND UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE INDICATE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH.
THE MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK ACROSS THE WESTERN
MAINLAND IS DISCONTINUED TODAY DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODELS RELATED TO
WIND SPEEDS REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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