664
FXUS21 KWNC 101902
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 10 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGS
INCREASED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW, AND WIND TO THE
REGION. ACROSS THE WEST, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS INCREASES CHANCES FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD,
THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RAPIDLY
EVOLVING PATTERN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR KONA LOWS
BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND PERIODIC HIGH WIND GUSTS TO PARTS OF
HAWAII, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SUN-MON, JAN 18-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST,
APPALACHIANS, GREAT LAKES, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, SUN-MON, JAN 18-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
AND FLORIDA, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
MON-FRI, JAN 19-24.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 13 - SATURDAY JANUARY 17:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 18 - SATURDAY JANUARY 24: THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING WEEK-2 INDICATING AN AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE THEN FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE TOOLS REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WHICH COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
STATE.
THE SURFACE PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST COULD RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SANTA
ANA WIND EPISODES FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, JAN 18-19,
PRIMARILY BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) HAVE DECREASED ITS SIGNAL FOR HIGH WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS REGION. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT WETNESS THERE SHOULD
REDUCE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
ACROSS THE EAST, MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ONE OR MORE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUPPORT INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS INCLUDES PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHEAST, VALID JAN 18-20. THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH. BASED ON
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW (JAN 18-20) INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND GREAT LAKES. THE GEFS SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET NOW INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SWE
TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. MANY OF THE
RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR SNOW INTO THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN REGIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BUT IN LIGHT OF THE
MOST RECENT RUNS, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO NEAR
INTERSTATE 95 FROM RICHMOND NORTHWARDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS, COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2. APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS
CRITERIA ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LESS ROBUST THAN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INITIALLY DESIGNATED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES (JAN 18-19) AND THE GULF COAST (JAN 18-20), SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST, JAN 19-24. MULTIPLE MODEL PETS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST
15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND -10 DEG F (WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEG F)
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HAZARD AREAS, AND FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE GEFS AND ECENS IN TERMS OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN ALASKA. THE ECENS FAVORS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE, WHEREAS THE GEFS MAINTAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE
ECENS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MUCH COLDER PATTERN THAN THE GEFS FOR WEEK-2. DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE SPECIFIED FOR ALASKA AT
THIS TIME.
A SERIES OF KONA LOWS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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