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FXUS21 KWNC 141817
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 14 2025
SYNOPSIS: PRECIPITATION, OR THE LACK THEREOF IN PLACES, REMAINS THE HAZARD
STORY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE ANOTHER GULF SURGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY INTO
THE PERIOD. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
LINGERING FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVERSELY,
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT REMAINS A RISK FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, MON-TUE, SEP 22-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MON-WED, SEP 22-24.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 17 - SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22 - SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 28: THE WEEK-2 FORECASTED HEIGHT
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS WE APPROACH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST
TO PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. POSITIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE THEN FORECAST TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS FORCES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING IT TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND POTENTIALLY TOUCH OFF ANOTHER GULF
SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) BASED ON
THE ECENS HIGHLIGHTS AREAS FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 0.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SEP 22-23.
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE ECENS PET AND RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH. THE GEFS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS ROBUST IN THESE AMOUNTS
BUT DOES HIGHLIGHT INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR SEP 22-24.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS FLORIDA, THAT
THE CPC HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS, LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE BY
WEEK-2. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) IS FORECASTING UP TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING WEEK-1. CORRESPONDINGLY THE NATIONAL WATER
CENTER (NWC) IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE SECOND
HALF OF WEEK-1 ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS FLOODING MAY LINGER TO WEEK-2 AND
A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS POSTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, ALBEIT WITH GENERALLY LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE COMBINATION
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 30 TO 60-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, AND
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SUPPORTS A RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA. DRY
VEGETATIVE FUELS IN THIS AREA TYPICALLY MEANS INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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