243
FXUS21 KWNC 291927
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS: A CHILLY PATTERN IS PREDICTED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING GREATER SIGNALS OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MID WEEK-2, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LATTER PART OF WEEK-2 REGARDING THE
EXTREME COLD EXTENT. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC, AS WELL AS POSSIBLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
DURING THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS TO THESE AREAS
AND WOULD LEAD TO LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO
PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD WEATHER. A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC,
SUN-MON, FEB 8-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SUN-THU, FEB 8-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND APPALACHIANS, FRI-TUE, FEB 6-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SUN, FEB 6-8.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12: ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE PREDICTED FOR THE MEAN WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD.
THIS COLD PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (-AO). MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING LONGER ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS
TRANSLATES TO INCREASED SIGNALS FOR HAZARDOUS COLD, SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, FEB
8-9. THE GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES HIGHER PROBABILITIES
COMPARED TO THE ECENS, WITH THE GEFS (ECENS) INDICATING PEAK PROBABILITIES ON
FEB 8 OF AT LEAST A 50% (40%) CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A BROAD AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, FEB 8-12, WHERE AND WHEN THERE IS THE MOST AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD
AREAS TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLD. BELOW ZERO DEG F WIND CHILLS
ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MAY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND/OR THE
EAST COAST, BRINGING ENHANCED WINDS TO PARTS OF THE EAST. THE SLIGHT RISK OF
EPISODIC HIGH WINDS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND APPALACHIANS, FEB 6-10. A BROAD AREA AND TIME
PERIOD IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THIS RISK SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS. THE ECENS PET
SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20
MPH, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY INCREASED CHANCES IN THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING GUSTS
EXCEEDING THIS SPEED. WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD LEAD TO LOWER WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
SUPPORTING INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS IN THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FEB 6-8. THE ECENS AND CMCE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE OF WIND GUSTS.
SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING SEA
DURING WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY OF THE LOWS AND ORIENTATION ARE NOT AS
CONDUCIVE TO WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA,
ALTHOUGH LOCAL AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COULD HAVE LOCALIZED ENHANCED WINDS AND HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE INCLUDED FOR ALASKA IN
TODAY'S OUTLOOK.
MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR KONA LOWS APPROACHING
HAWAII DURING WEEK-2, WHICH COULD BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE CPC 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (50-60% CHANCE) FOR ISLANDS WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page