893
AGUS76 KRSA 042038
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
1240 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
..DRY AND WARM TODAY INTO THURSDAY
..WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY
..NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (WED PM - TUE AM)
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED NICELY UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN US AND EXTENDS WELL
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END
UP ANYWHERE FROM PLUS 5- TO PLUS 25-DEGF OVER SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
WITH THIS STUBBORN UPR RIDGE SHIFTING VERY LITTLE INTO
TOMORROW...LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND WARM SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS.
INTO FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING WEST OF
CENTRAL BAJA ALONG 120W ALONG WITH A S/WV TROF MAKING ITS WAY
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL UPR TROF WILL PHASE TO
THE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION AND THEN MEANDER TOWARD BAJA THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN CA...AND SOUTHERN NV TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. OVERALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR LESS THAN 0.10-INCH.
MOVING BACK TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...THE 04/12Z MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER AND MORE NORTHWARD S/WV
TROF MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CA.
PRECIP FORECAST ON SUNDAY REMAINED RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE MORNING
FORECAST...FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE 04/12Z GFS AND EC...BUT NOW ALSO
INCLUDING THE CMC...AS IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS...PRECIP WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH TO ABOUT POINT
ARENA WITH THE BEST TOTALS OVER THE LOWER KLAMATH AND SMITH RIVER
BASINS (0.50- TO 1.00-INCH LOCAL TO 1.50-INCHES). INLAND AMOUNTS
WILL DROP OFF WITH THE BEST TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES
RANGING FROM 0.25- TO 0.75-INCH...AND THEN MUCH LOWER SOUTH OVER THE
SHASTA LAKE DRAINAGE AND NORTHERN SIERRA (0.10- TO 0.25-INCH). THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL REACH DOWN TO THE FEATHER OR YUBA RIVER BASINS.
FREEZING LEVELS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM 9000- TO 11000-FEET NORTH OF
I-80...AND THEN FALL TO 4500- TO 8000-FEET AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION A BIT WITH WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THEN
TURNING TO GENERAL TROFFING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
DRK
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