710  
FGUS61 KTIR 241957  
ESGTIR  
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER  
WILMINGTON OH  
300 PM EST WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 24 2021  
 
...FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF  
THE MAINSTEM AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...  
 
...FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 90-DAYS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS
 
 
PRECIPITATION WAS 75% OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.  
RAIN AND SNOWFALL WAS 150% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE KENTUCKY WATERSHEDS  
AS WELL AS THE THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN.  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE
 
 
STATE RANKINGS:  
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS - WET  
INDIANA - WET  
OHIO - WET  
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA - WET  
WEST VIRGINIA - WET  
KENTUCKY - WET  
TENNESSEE - WET  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT/MONITORING/SMP.SHTML  
   
..USGS STREAMFLOWS
 
 
 
STATE RANKINGS:  
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS - ABOVE NORMAL  
INDIANA - NEAR NORMAL  
OHIO - NEAR NORMAL  
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA - NEAR NORMAL  
WEST VIRGINIA - NEAR NORMAL  
KENTUCKY - ABOVE NORMAL  
TENNESSEE - ABOVE NORMAL  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WATERMONITOR.GOV  
   
..RESERVOIR CONDITIONS
 
 
RESERVOIR STORAGE IS NEAR WINTER POOL LEVELS AND; THEREFORE, HAS  
STORAGE TO MITIGATE FLOOD IMPACTS, IF NECESSARY.  
 
OHIO RIVER FLOWS...  
 
VALUES ARE IN PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH ABOVE 100% ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND BELOW 100% ARE BELOW NORMAL.  
 
PITTSBURGH - 85%  
HUNTINGTON - 105%  
CINCINNATI - 105%  
LOUISVILLE - 95%  
EVANSVILLE - 95%  
SMITHLAND - 85%  
   
..SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK
 
 
4.6 INCHES IN DAVIS, WEST VIRGINIA  
1.7 INCHES IN THE UPPER WABASH  
1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE MAUMEE AND GREAT LAKES  
1-2 INCHES IN THE CONEMAUGH AND ALLEGHENY  
1/2 INCH IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE WHITE, MIAMI, SCIOTO, AND MUSKINGUM  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA  
   
..ICE COVER
 
 
6-9 INCHES THICK ON THE TIFFIN RIVER IN THE MAUAMEE WATERSHED  
6 INCHES THICK ALONG THE VERMILLION IN THE GREAT LAKES  
12 INCHES THICK NEAR RIMER AND BRADY BEND, PA ALONG THE ALLEGHENY  
12+ INCHES THICK ALONG THE HEADWATERS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY  
   
...2-WEEK AND 90-DAY FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY
 
 
ZONAL FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM LEADING TO AN  
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINS AND;  
THEREFORE, FLOODING SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILNL  
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN USA PRODUCING A DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL FEED  
PERTURBATIONS EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW AND INTERACTING  
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE OHIO  
VALLEY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL SUPPORT  
CONVECTVE RAINS INCREASING RAINFALL RATES AND ADDING TO RUNOFF  
EFFICENCY. THIS IS A CLASSIC WEATHER PATTERN SETUP IN THE OHIO RIVER  
BASIN FOR PROBLEMATIC FLOODING.  
   
..OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS
 
 
VALUES ARE IN PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH ABOVE 100% ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND BELOW 100% ARE BELOW NORMAL.  
 
PITTSBURGH - 185%  
HUNTINGTON - 250%  
CINCINNATI - 300%  
LOUISVILLE - 300%  
EVANSVILLE - 300%  
SMITHLAND - 250%  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE 10-DAY FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS  
 
OFFICIAL FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC  
   
..90-DAY OUTLOOK INTO MAY 2021
 
 
ATMOSPHERIC SIGNALS POINT TO A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION INTO APRIL LEADING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL  
FOR THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE MAUMEE AND GREAT LAKES  
DRAINAGE NEAR CLEVELAND,  
 
   
..STATE BY STATE 90-DAY FLOOD RIVER FLOOD RISK
 
 
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
INDIANA - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
OHIO - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
WEST VIRGINIA - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
WESTERN VIRGINIA - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING  
KENTUCKY - MINOR, MODERATE, MAJOR FLOODING  
TENNESSEE - MINOR, MODERATE TO MAJOR (MILL CREEK, HARPETH AND RED  
RIVER) FLOODING  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE 90-DAY FLOOD RISK PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMAION...  
 
FLOOD RISK IS DEFINED AS FOLLOWS:  
BELOW NORMAL - FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED  
NORMAL - MINOR FLOODING  
ABOVE NORMAL - WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH MODERATE OR MAJOR POSSIBLE  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. IT ALSO ASSESSES THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD RISK. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
CONDITIONS.  
 
THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER ALSO ISSUES A 30-90 DAY WATER RESOURCES  
OUTLOOK MONTHLY THROUGHOUT THE YEAR FOR A CONTINUOUS WATER WATCH. THIS  
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC/WRO .  
 
FACTOR CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS, PAST PRECIPITATION, CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND RESERVOIR LEVELS,  
SOIL MOISTURE, WATER CONTENT IN SNOW COVER, ICE CONDITIONS AND FUTURE  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
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