155  
FGUS63 KKRF 231834  
ESGYEL  
 
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO  
149 PM CST MON FEB 22 2021  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 02/27/2021 - 05/28/2021  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LK WY BLO  
YLOW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LAMAR R AT TOWER FALLS WY  
TFLW4 15.0 16.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MT  
CORM8 11.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:YEL R AT LIVINGSTON MT 5S  
LIVM8 10.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:SHIELDS R AT LIVINGSTON MT 7NE  
SLDM8 5.5 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MT 1E  
BTMM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:STILLWATER R AT ABSAROKEE MT 1NE  
SRAM8 7.5 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN AT BELFRY MT 10SW  
BFYM8 8.5 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:YEL R AT EDGAR MT  
EDGM8 9.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:YEL R AT BILLINGS MT 1NE  
BILM8 13.5 14.5 15.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LTL BIGHORN R AT HARDIN MT 3E  
HRDM8 8.0 10.0 11.8 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT FORSYTH MT  
FRYM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:GOOSE CR AT SHERIDAN WY  
SHBW4 7.5 8.5 9.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TONGUE R AT BIRNEY MT  
BNYM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:TONGUE R AT MILES CITY MT 2S  
MICM8 10.0 13.0 15.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY MT 1NW  
MILM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 <5 <5 NA NA NA NA  
:POWDER R AT SUSSEX WY  
SXXW4 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT GLENDIVE MT 1E  
GLNM8 53.5 60.0 65.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOWSTONE R AT SIDNEY MT 2S  
SIDM8 19.0 20.0 21.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME  
PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B KRF 0227 Z DH12 /DC2102221349/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
 
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD = 02/27/2021 - 05/28/2021  
 
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
YLOW4 2.8/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 5.0  
 
:LAMAR R  
TFLW4 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.6/ 8.4/ 8.6  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
CORM8 5.2/ 5.5/ 5.9/ 6.2/ 6.9/ 7.6/ 8.0  
 
:YEL R  
LIVM8 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.3/ 7.2/ 7.7/ 8.3  
 
:SHIELDS R  
SLDM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.1  
 
:BOULDER R  
BTMM8 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 6.6  
 
:STILLWATER R  
SRAM8 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.3  
 
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN  
BFYM8 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 6.2/ 6.5  
 
:YEL R  
EDGM8 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 6.7  
BILM8 5.5/ 5.8/ 6.4/ 6.9/ 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.4  
 
:LTL BIGHORN R  
HRDM8 2.8/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 6.5  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
FRYM8 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 7.3  
 
:GOOSE CR  
SHBW4 0.3/ 0.5/ 1.1/ 1.9/ 2.9/ 4.4/ 5.0  
 
:TONGUE R  
BNYM8 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.6/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 3.6  
MICM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 4.5/ 6.6/ 8.7  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
MILM8 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.8/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 8.4/ 9.2  
 
:POWDER R  
SXXW4 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 5.0/ 7.0/ 7.5  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
GLNM8 44.3/ 44.6/ 45.3/ 45.7/ 46.4/ 47.5/ 48.5  
SIDM8 5.2/ 5.8/ 6.9/ 7.5/ 8.5/ 10.1/ 11.5  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B KRF 0227 Z DH12 /DC2102221349/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH  
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF  
 
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD = 02/27/2021 - 05/28/2021  
 
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
YLOW4 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4  
 
:LAMAR R  
TFLW4 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
CORM8 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.8  
 
:YEL R  
LIVM8 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4  
 
:SHIELDS R  
SLDM8 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6  
 
:BOULDER R  
BTMM8 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1  
 
:STILLWATER R  
SRAM8 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4  
 
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN  
BFYM8 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6  
 
:YEL R  
EDGM8 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8  
BILM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0  
 
:LTL BIGHORN R  
HRDM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
FRYM8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5  
 
:GOOSE CR  
SHBW4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
 
:TONGUE R  
BNYM8 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9  
MICM8 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
MILM8 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6  
 
:POWDER R  
SXXW4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3  
 
:YELLOWSTONE R  
GLNM8 43.0/ 43.0/ 43.0/ 43.0/ 42.8/ 42.7/ 42.6  
SIDM8 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.5  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 
.END  
 

 
 
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