428  
NGUS86 KRSA 081438  
HCMRSA  
 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA  
740 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...  
...A LARGE COLDER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO THE  
REGION LATE SUN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
   
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (THU AM - WED AM)
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE  
BUILDS OVERHEAD. BEHIND THIS RIDGE, A LARGE UPPER LOW IS TRAVELING  
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO  
CA TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE  
OUR WARMING TREND TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE  
FORECAST BY ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEG F. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING  
MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CA (0.50-0.75") AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO  
TRAVERSE THE AREA. THIS MAY GENERATE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO  
OVER THE SIERRA LATER TODAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.  
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE WEEK  
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES  
TO RISE TO +10 TO +20 DEG F FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULF LOW ON SATURDAY  
HEADED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME INITIAL COOLING  
OVER THE NORTH COAST FOR SATURDAY WHILE AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE REST  
OF CA/NV WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE LOW  
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT SUNDAY SENDING SHOWERS INTO  
CA. THE TIMING OF PRECIP HAS SLOWED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY, AND MODELS  
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES OF 500  
MB HEIGHT PATTERNS ARE DIVIDED AS WELL ON THE TIMING AND POSITIONING  
OF THE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP  
FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ASIDE FROM  
LIGHTER SHOWERS REACHING SONOMA COUNTY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW  
THE LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE PACNW ON MONDAY WHILE TROUGHING DIGS  
INTO NRN CA. PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL CA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
TROUGHING WILL DIG DEEPER INTO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SRN CA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT INTO  
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY  
WEDNESDAY (MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND EASTWARD). AS THE LOW/TROUGH  
MOVES OVERHEAD, THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD  
REGARDING THE QPF REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH 24 HR QPF VALUES  
AT ARCATA ANYWHERE FROM 0" TO NEARLY 2" BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THERE  
IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS  
OF PRECIP.  
 
ALL THE QPF IN THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE  
SIERRA, IS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP LIKELY TO  
BE MONDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA AND THE  
SMITH BASIN. QPF 12Z SUN-12Z WEDS: 0.50-1" NORTH COAST/NRN SIERRA,  
0.25-0.75" SHASTA, 0.10-0.75" CENTRAL SIERRA, A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO  
0.25" SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THE REST OF NRN CA, AND LESS THAN A TENTH  
FOR COASTAL SRN CA.  
 
IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION, THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES  
FROM NW TO SE STARTING SUNDAY WHEN MUCH OF THE CA COAST WILL DROP TO  
BELOW NORMAL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD  
ANOMALIES OF -5 TO -15 DEG F. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR  
TUESDAY AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 10-13.5 KFT OR SO  
THIS WEEK TO 5.5-10 KFT NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER  
FREEZING LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWN  
TO 4.5-8 KFT NORTH OF I-80 MID MONDAY MORNING, THESE LOWER LEVELS  
WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTEREY COUNTY BY THE EVENING. FREEZING  
LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUESDAY AT 4.5-7.5 KFT NORTH OF POINT  
CONCEPTION BEFORE REBOUNDING FROM SW TO NE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED THIS  
SUMMER. PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC  
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF  
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.  
 
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP  
 
*********************** CONTACT INFORMATION ************************  
 
CNRFC OFFICE HOURS PHONE: 1 (916) 979-3056 EXTENSION 338  
AFTER-HOURS CALLING SERVICE: 1 (800) 218-0858  
LEAVE NAME...OFFICE...AND PHONE NUMBER  
 
AS  
 

 
 
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