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NGUS86 KRSA 091426
HCMRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
730 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS
..UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
..BEST PRECIP FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA INTO EASTERN NV ON SUN
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI AM - THU AM)
THE ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT BRINGING THE PROLONGED HEAT EVENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN US TO AN END IS FINALLY HERE WITH COOLING
STARTING TODAY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST HAS SHIFTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA AND IS NOW ALIGNED OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WITH THREE FEATURES BECOMING THE PLAYERS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST IS A BROAD TROF OVER BC THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
NEXT IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 33N/128W. FINALLY...TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL CONTINUES TO SPIN WELL WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
IN THE VICINITY OF 23N/124W WITH A FORECAST TRACK PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT WITH ANOMALIES MAINLY FROM PLUS 5- TO PLUS 15-DEGF. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE TROFFING DIGS
ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE WEST COAST TROF SHARPEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS CA...WHILE THE UPR LOW AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL PHASE IN THE
VICINITY OF 30N/120W. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD SOUTHERN CA. THE
MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS TO BRING THE MOISTURE BIT
MORE WESTWARD...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF PW IN THE RANGE OF
1.00- TO 1.50-INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN NV WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN LOS ANGELES AND SAN
DIEGO NEARING 2.00-INCHES. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 11/12Z AS THE PHASED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA. HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST IS DEPICTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM COASTAL
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES INLAND TOWARD SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
AND WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. TOTALS ON SUNDAY ARE LOOKING TO
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND
3.50-INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. THEN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST RIDING ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER...PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NV WITH WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 0.50- TO JUST OVER 1.00-INCH.
BY MONDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE SHARP UPR TROF THAT DUG
SOUTHWARD FROM BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PW VALUES BETWEEN
0.50- AND 0.75-INCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED PRECIP TO CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF THE SIERRA AND POINTS EASTWARD ACROSS NV...AS WELL AS NEAR
THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA. WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 0.10-
TO 0.33-INCH.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING ACROSS EASTERN NV THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...AN OFFSHORE UPR RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
COAST BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRYING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
*********************** CONTACT INFORMATION ************************
CNRFC OFFICE HOURS PHONE: 1 (916) 979-3056 EXTENSION 338
AFTER-HOURS CALLING SERVICE: 1 (800) 218-0858
LEAVE NAME...OFFICE...AND PHONE NUMBER
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