771  
ABNT20 KNHC 212348  
TWOAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2018  
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF  
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING  
ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS  
TO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY AND A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE LOW LATITUDES  
OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.  
 
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF  
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS PRODUCED PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST  
OF ITS CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS  
CONTINUE, ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER  
TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL  
WINDS AND DRY AIR ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS  
SYSTEM WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT  
AROUND 10 MPH.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 150 MILES  
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER  
ACTIVITY, AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR  
TWO. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE  
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN  
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...30 PERCENT.  
 
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS  
WEEKEND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, MIDWAY BETWEEN  
BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR  
THE LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND A  
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND  
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
OCEAN.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.  
 

 
FORECASTER ZELINSKY  
 
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