389  
ABNT20 KNHC 170501  
TWOAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
200 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2024  
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:  
 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO:  
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA,  
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO, AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE  
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF  
THE LOW, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO  
FORM BY MIDWEEK WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-  
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  
 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA, AND  
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND FLASH  
FLOODING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND MORE INFORMATION ON  
THOSE WARNINGS IS AVAILABLE IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN AND  
NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.  
 
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN:  
A TROUGH OR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM A FEW  
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN A DAY OR TWO.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF  
THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-  
NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE  
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...30 PERCENT.  
 

 
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01  
KWBC, AND ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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