284
ABPZ20 KNHC 162328
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (CP90):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JOHNSTON ATOLL IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST OF ITS CENTER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. BY
THIS WEEKEND, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT.
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM BY LATER THIS WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH..90 PERCENT.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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