062   
AXPZ20 KNHC 251603  
TWDEP   
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025  
  
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
  
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
  
TROPICAL STORM SONIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES  
WESTWARD FAR FROM LAND. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 118.1W AT   
25/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL   
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH   
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 16 FT (5   
M). THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD   
TODAY. A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST   
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS   
WEEKEND AND SONIA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.   
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS   
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AB OUT 90 NM  
W SEMICIRCLE.   
  
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST  
SONIA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
  
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 99W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING   
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR   
THE TROUGH AXIS.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH  
  
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR  
10N85W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 09N95W AND TO 11N105W, THEN  
RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA NEAR 11N122W TO 07N136W. THE   
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FOR THE  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION   
IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 78W AND 86W, AND FROM   
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 114W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO  
  
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT FRESH TO STRONG N  
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. SEAS IN  
THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS   
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE  
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND EXTENDS TO THE   
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE SATELLITE WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED   
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE AFFECTING  
THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY   
ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA   
SUR. LASTLY, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS  
ARE FOUND INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF SW AND   
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS LATE THIS   
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN   
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY MON MORNING. THEREAFTER, A STRONG  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA BY MIDWEEK,   
SUPPORTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC   
REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N WINDS WILL CONTINUE   
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.   
LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA   
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, AT WHICH TIME ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL SET   
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAME WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE   
ON TUE.   
  
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,   
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
  
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, INCLUDING  
THE GULF OF PANAMA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUSTAINS MODERATE   
S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.   
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE ARE PREVALENT NORTH OF THE   
MONSOON TROUGH.  
   
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN   
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE   
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC   
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA LOCATED IN THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.   
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA  
  
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON   
TROPICAL STORM SONIA.  
  
OUTSIDE OF SONIA, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N  
AND W OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT  
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE,   
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST   
OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 11 FT DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD  
NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS   
CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER  
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N. MEANWHILE, THE   
SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH   
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W   
OF 115W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9 FT.  
  
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS  
THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES  
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST SWELL  
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED BY   
TROPICAL STORM SONIA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS NEAR   
13.5N 118.1W AT 8 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM   
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM   
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SONIA WILL MOVE TO 13.6N 118.9W THIS  
EVENING, 13.7N 119.7W SUN MORNING, 13.9N 120.3W SUN EVENING,   
14.4N 121.0W MON MORNING, 14.9N 122.1W MON EVENING, AND 15.2N   
123.3W TUE MORNING. SONIA WILL WEAKEN AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE   
NEAR 15.0N 126.5W EARLY WED.  
  
  
GR  
 
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