182
AXPZ20 KNHC 151430
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY: A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N117W TO 15N140W, THEN IS STATIONARY TO 14N138W.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG- PERIOD NW
SWELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
PEAKING AROUND 13 FT NORTH OF 24N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED BY AN ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 06Z. THE ROUGH SEAS
HAVE REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 10N IN THE WESTERN
WATERS LATER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N105W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 06N105W TO 09N125W AND BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND
100W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE NW SWELL DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MODERATE SW WINDS
ARE STARTING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE GULF. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE STILL
ACTIVE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, REACHING PRIMARILY 180 NM
OFFSHORE, WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO
6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING, THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. FARTHER NORTH, A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY, BRINGING FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS LATE MON INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE
TO STRONG IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DOMINATES THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP BY MIDWEEK IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 05N.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING LARGE NW SWELL
FOLLOWING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE NW SWELL BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FLOWING INTO THIS AREA, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR, MIXING WITH NW SWELL. IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, THE FRESH SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, SUPPORTING SEAS TO 9
FT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MIXES
WITH SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY LARGE NW SWELL
NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 130W. LOOKING AHEAD, A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE TRADE WATERS WEST OF 120W BY MIDWEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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