080  
AXPZ20 KNHC 221541  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC TUE JUL 22 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1530 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 113W FROM 02N NORTHWARD TO 16N  
JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, MOVING SLOWLY  
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED  
FROM 08N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 106W AND 119W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 139W FROM 05N TO 19N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS WAVE.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N100W TO 09N115W. THE  
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N116W AND CONTINUES TO 08N138W. NUMEROUS  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 11N E OF 96W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N  
BETWEEN 97W AND 105W, AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF  
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING  
MODERATE NW WINDS FOR THE WATERS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND  
SLIGHTLY WEAKER MORE OFFSHORE. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALSO  
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WATERS OFFSHORE MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC, 4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE SW MEXICO, AND 3 TO 5 FT  
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, TO 4 FT IN  
THE NORTHERN GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. PULSING FRESH TO  
LOCALLY STRONG NORTH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC INTO WED NIGHT AS A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO.  
WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THERE THEREAFTER.  
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FRESHEN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK  
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY, THEN INCREASE TO  
FRESH TO STRONG MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT THERE  
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF  
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS  
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN S  
TO SW SWELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. VERY ACTIVE  
CONVECTION WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS OF PANAMA, COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY  
THU, THEN PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE  
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THU  
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE WATERS BY THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE  
DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SSE TO  
AROUND 19N AND 108W. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE SOUTH OF THE  
RIDGE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, ONE NEAR 139W AND ONE NEAR 113W. WINDS  
NEAR AND WEST OF THE 139W WAVE ARE FRESH WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT  
IN THE VICINITY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE FROM  
ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH  
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, ALONG WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS. SOUTH  
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, WINDS ARE MODERATE WITH SEAS OF  
6 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SWELL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 139W WILL  
MOVE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS ACCOMPANYING  
IT AND SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT  
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS  
THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY NEAR 113W MOVES WESTWARD.  
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL LINGER FROM NORTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO AROUND 20N THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE  
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXITS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page