814  
AXPZ20 KNHC 211820 CCA  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1255 UTC FRI FEB 21 2020  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO  
WILL PROVIDE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND  
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC  
REGION TODAY. WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT, AND BUILDING SEAS TO 20 TO  
22 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST  
TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING. AT THAT TIME, A  
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER THE FORECAST  
WATERS FROM 08.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W, WITH SEAS UP TO  
13 OR 14 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY  
SUN AFTERNOON. SWELL GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT COMBINED  
WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS  
OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND  
110W BY SUN MORNING. MARINE INTEREST TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE  
OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID  
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 OR  
AT WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR  
FURTHER DETAILS.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N90W TO 04N106W. THE  
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 04N106W TO  
04N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO  
07N BETWEEN 95W AND 89W, AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 129W AND  
132W.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE  
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS W  
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW-N WINDS, AND SEAS  
MAINLY OF 4 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL  
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE  
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA  
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS COULD  
REACH 25 KT OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO  
6-9 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION,  
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE  
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
NW SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF  
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA  
AND EL SALVADOR LATE TODAY THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL REACH UP TO  
14-16 FT NEAR 11N95W.  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE  
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING HOURS, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS  
WILL REACH BETWEEN 8-10 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
GULF OF PANAMA: FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL  
PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DIMINISHING  
SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT AT TIMES  
WITH THESE WINDS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL  
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ANDES OVER EASTERN ECUADOR AND  
SW COLOMBIA LATE SAT NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED  
FLOODING TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N126W TO 25N135W, WITH FRESH  
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTIMETER DATA  
SHOWS SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT  
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL  
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W  
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT  
WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES.  
 
FRESH NE-E SWELLS GENERATED BY GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PROPAGATE FAR FROM ITS  
SOURCE REGION INTO AN AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 90W  
AND 110W THIS WEEKEND, GRADUALLY DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
GR  
 
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