284
AXPZ20 KNHC 011530
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB, CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 09N125W, WELL SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS DISORGANIZED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FROM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 82W, N
OF 05N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOP N OF 05N AND E OF 87W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE,
IMPACTING WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 108W FROM 05N TO 15N, MOVING W
AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 10N110W TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N125W TO
06N140W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH ALREADY DEPICTED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE,
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 133W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
111W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION TO JUST NW OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR 3 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL NEAR
THE ENTRANCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN
LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, BRINGING ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL. THE
EXCEPTION IS MODERATE GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL ARE OVER THE WATERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
NOCTURNAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GALAPAGOS ADJACENT
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THU AFTERNOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO E TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF TRADE WIND WAVES
AND NW TO N SWELL. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT
IN S TO SW SWELL.
ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN\.
HOWEVER, A CONTINUATION OF A MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL COMBINED WITH TRADE WIND WAVES
WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS INTO LATE WEEK.
KONARIK
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