685
AXPZ20 KNHC 220406
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION IS EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA. WIND ARE FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE TO 35 TO 40
KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ON SUN. THEN, WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE BY SUN EVENING, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 TO 18 FT. GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUN INTO MON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM
FORCE BY MON MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT. STORM
CONDITIONS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON TUE.
LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WILL
SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED. MARINE
INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN
THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS UPCOMING GAP WIND EVENT, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE. THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUN THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 04N93W TO 02N105W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N106W TO 02N124W TO 06N140W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 01S112W TO 02S134W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N AND E OF
94W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N120W COVERS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 29N WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
BEYOND THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF
THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL SUPPORT A STORM-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON MON. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT, PROPAGATING WELL AWAY
FROM THE SOURCE REGION. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO NEAR 90W. SEAS ARE TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE
OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR TO ABOUT 08N AND E OF
90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUE
MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE
AZUERO PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N. SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION, SEAS GENERATED IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS N
OF 17N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 114W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W BY
SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
BUILDING SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
REGION ON MON. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
RAMOS
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