091
AXPZ20 KNHC 141553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W AND EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO TO 04N92W
MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 04N TO 19N MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N76W TO 08N85W TO 12N101W TO 11N120W TO
08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N
E OF 80W, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED NEAR 37N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE
TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A
MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LUCAS AND CABO SAN LAZARO
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS. IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S
WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN THERE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW OF
THE UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 OF 7 FT
WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 06N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED S OF 06N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 06N THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF 06N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS, KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED NEAR 37N131W DOMINATES THE WATERS
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W PRODUCING IN GENERAL GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
SEEN S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT BASED
ON ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PRODUCING
IN GENERAL A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MODERATE
SEAS. ON SAT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS
ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE W OF 130W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
7 FT.
GR
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