192
AXPZ20 KNHC 181926
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC PER A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE 8-12
FT ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING WELL DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 09N101W.
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO JUST
BELOW GALE-FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 14-15 FT DURING
THIS EVENT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N88W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 03.4S110W TO 03N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
98W AND 103W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON A GALE WARNING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GENERATING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING,
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS, INCREASING TO MODERATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, THEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AHEAD, SEAS MAY BUILD IN FRESH N SWELLS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SEAS OF 7-10 FT
ARE OFFSHORE WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO AN ONGOING GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE-FORCE GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN AGAIN ON FRI. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE NIGHTLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING THU
NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA STARTING THU
NIGHT, THEN PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THIS WEEKEND. GENTLE BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 25N125W. MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS MAINLY FROM 08N TO 12N AND EAST OF 101W INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. FRESH N SWELL MAY
BUILD S OF 30N FROM OFF CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A FRONT MAY MOVE JUST SE OF 30N140W BY TUE
EVENING, STALLING OVER THE NW WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS W OF IT.
LEWITSKY
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