444
AXPZ20 KNHC 081553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN BEFORE WINDS
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 13N97W BY MON NIGHT, AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THESE WINDS.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS THEREAFTER THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
11N106W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 27.5N121W, AND MODERATE
N WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, AND RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW 8
TO 11 FT SEAS OVER THIS REGION. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH 1 TO 2
FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS TODAY, AND WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE
LATE SUN NIGHT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR
13N97W BY MON NIGHT, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THESE WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED MORNING, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS THEREAFTER
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NW AND S
SWELL ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH 7 FT SEAS
NOTED SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUE.
FRESH N WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AND
OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR BY MIDWEEK. FARTHER WEST, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS
WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
125W AND 135W, AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
WATERS, STEMMING FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR
40.5N144W. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 8 TO 10
FT SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
27.5N121W, AND MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED TO THE SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS, WITH NW SWELL DOMINATING NORTH OF 05N, AND MIXED NW AND
SW SWELL FARTHER SOUTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING NORTH OF 20N, AWAY FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST
WATERS, THROUGH SUN MORNING, AND SOUTH OF 20N THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS LATER
TODAY, AND FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 135W AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE OVER THIS REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW. A NEW NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W BY LATE SUN,
AND NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W
EARLY SUN INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL OCCUR AROUND 10N AND EAST OF 110W EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ADAMS
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