615
AXPZ20 KNHC 170810
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BROAD SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 82W TO THE N OF 02N TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 104W/105W, FROM 01N TO 17N NEAR THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE
HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR
12.5N104.5W TO 14N114W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N EAST OF 95W,
AND FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT, ARE FUNNELING
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS
CENTERED NEAR 24.5N118.5W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS TO 8
FT, ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT LOW. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO,
WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 6-8 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE
6-8 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH WED, EXCEPT MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON AN AREA BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL FORMATION, INVEST EP96.
THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N118.5W. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS TO 8 FT, ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REMNANT LOW. OUTSIDE OF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MARIO AND EP96, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS
OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W OF 120W, AND 6-10 FT RANGE E OF
120W IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARIO WILL MOVE NW AND DISSIPATE BY THU
EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE AXIS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WILL
CONSOLIDATE AROUND EP96, WHICH HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AL
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