940
AXPZ20 KNHC 150401
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W
AND 97W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 10N117W TO 05N140W. A
1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N132W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG IS ALSO ONGOING FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE
WEST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND
SEAS ARE SLIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
5 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING LOCALLY FRESH WINDS MIDWEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND TEHUNATEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA. GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
LOW FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. IN ADDITION MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW CENTER, LIKELY
REACHING STRONG SPEEDS IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT ARE ALSO WITHIN THAT
DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COULD SUPPORT SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
RAMOS
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