319
AXPZ20 KNHC 250338
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 25 2020
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF GUATEMALA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KT. AT THE PRESENT TIME, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 07N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WESTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN
PANAMA AND TO THE COAST AT 09N84W. IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST TO
11N96W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N109W 1008 MB, THEN TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 10N121W 1011 MB AND TO ANOTHER 1011 LOW NEAR 10N132W, WHERE
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 126W-127W AND WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-126W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N136W TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 5-6
FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2
FT RANGE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES FROM
NEAR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF 10N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ARE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
SWELL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODERATE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
NEAR 8 FT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA AND AND
EL SALVADOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH GUSTY WINDS, TO THESE WATERS.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM SUN AFTERNOON
REVEALED A FEW AREAS OF WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ONE OF 1008 MB IS NEAR 11N109W, ANOTHER ONE WITH A
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS NEAR 10N121W AND ANOTHER ONE WITH THE SAME
PRESSURE IS NEAR 10N132W.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE NIGHT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 102W-118W. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT OVER THESE WATERS.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE TROUGHING NEAR 25N130W.
AGUIRRE
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