423
AXPZ20 KNHC 311540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 31 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY
THIS MORNING, BELOW STORM-FORCE, BUT POWERFUL GALES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 16
FT. THEN, NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS BY FRI MORNING. MARINE INTERESTS
TRANSITING ACROSS OR NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED
SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 05N95W TO 13N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 24N BETWEEN 108W AND
112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS.
FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS. LOW
PRESSURE WELL W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CAUSING FRESH SE WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS MAINLY NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS THIS
MORNING. FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS WILL LIFT N OF PUNTA EUGENIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE W OF THE OFFSHORES MOVES NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL MAY BRING ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS INTO FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE
NIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH FRI. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE ANOTHER
ARCHES SW TO 16N131W. EAST OF THE LOW, A BROAD REGION OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 08N
TO 30N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT N OF 15N AND W OF 131W
WHERE SEAS ARE ROUGH TO 9 FT DUE TO LARGE MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS
TODAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE FAR NW TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF 25N INTO THU. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATER ON
THU AND WITH THE MAIN FRONT BY THU EVENING FROM 30N134W TO
24N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT. SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BRINGING ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGHLY SEAS.
KONARIK
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