481
AXPZ20 KNHC 240348
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 24 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE WILLA CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 105.5W AT 24/0300 UTC MOVING
NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 105W TO 107W OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LARGE
SWELLS FORECAST ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST, AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, BETWEEN 103W AND 109W, AND ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL FORECASTS FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM WILLA. REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVE
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 03N ALONG 92.5W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING S OF 08N WITHIN 60
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 09N76W ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NW PANAMA TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W, THEN TURNS SW THROUGH A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 07N96W TO 07N107W, THEN RESUMES AT 16N106W AND
CONTINUES SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 12.5N116W TO
09N122W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ, WHICH THEN CONTINUES W-SW THROUGH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SURFACE
LOW AT 08N136W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THE SURFACE LOW
AT 12.5N116W ROUGHLY WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
14N111W TO 10N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE
SURFACE LOW AT 08N136W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07.5N80W TO 09N93W TO 07N104W, AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 18.5N104.5W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES PARAGRAPH FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
CYCLONES WILLA.
W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED
ON WED WAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE WILLA ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N, AND LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N WILL BOTH SUBSIDE
WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA BY WED
EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE
FROM THE N WITH MODERATE NW WIND AND 4 TO 6 FT FORECAST AT
SUNRISE WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT CONTINUING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERAT NW FLOW
EXPECTED ON FRI.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WED MORNING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
STRONG DRAINAGE EVENT WILL BEGIN ON SAT EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS MON EVENING.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSES OF FRESH NE FLOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THU MORNING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NE GAP WINDS LATE
MON NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRI MORNING, WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS,
ARE FORECAST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12.5N116W WILL DRIFT NW FOR A DAY BEFORE
TURNING SW AND REACHING NEAR 11.5N122W LATE THU. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NW QUADRANT ON WED
SUPPORTING A STRONG NE BREEZE, THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON
THU.
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 08N136W
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W LATE WED.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THROUGH THU
THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADES
AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM
08N TO 14N W OF 135W FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. LARGE
NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7 TO 9 FT SEAS, WILL REACH ALONG 32N135W
TO 28N140W ON WED, AND REACH FROM 32N130W TO 22N140W ON WED
NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE AS FRESH NE TRADES WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS,
DEVELOP FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 131W.
NELSON
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