027
AXPZ20 KNHC 082206
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 8 2022
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2150 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 07N78W TO
06N83W TO 07N89W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N89W TO 09N120W TO
10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
120W AND FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS SUSTAINS
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ALONG THIS REGION ARE UP TO 5 FT IN NW
SWELL. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION IS ALSO
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF. SEAS ALONG THE GULF ARE 3-6 FT, HIGHEST NEAR THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE SEEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING
THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH WINDS THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7 FT AT THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI
MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE SUN, BRINGING
LARGE NW SWELL TO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE FRONT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN EVENING INTO SUN NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W.
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 05N. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL. AMERICA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF
05N ACROSS THE NW SOUTH AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3-4 FT IN REGIONS OUTSIDE OF PAPAGAYO.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH TO
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND ECUADOR. SLIGHT
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 17N125W SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
IS JUST N OF THE THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THIS WIND ZONE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE
EQUATOR, BETWEEN 110W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD, APPROACHING 140W BY FRI. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
12N TO 24N AND W OF 130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N
WATERS WEAKENING THE RIDGE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
FORECAST REGION EARLY ON FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT LATE ON SAT. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9-13 FT BY SUN NIGHT.
RAMOS
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