027  
AXPZ20 KNHC 082206  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC THU DEC 8 2022  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2150 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 07N78W TO  
06N83W TO 07N89W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N89W TO 09N120W TO  
10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND  
120W AND FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 130W.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST  
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AGAINST LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH  
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS SUSTAINS  
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA PER RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ALONG THIS REGION ARE UP TO 5 FT IN NW  
SWELL. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION IS ALSO  
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF  
THE GULF. SEAS ALONG THE GULF ARE 3-6 FT, HIGHEST NEAR THE  
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, FRESH TO NEAR  
GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. LIGHT TO  
GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE SEEN ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER  
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING  
THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH WINDS THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FRESH TO  
LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER  
THE GREAT BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7 FT AT THE  
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI  
MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE SUN, BRINGING  
LARGE NW SWELL TO THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE SUN  
THROUGH MON. THE FRONT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHERN  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN EVENING INTO SUN NIGHT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE PRESENT  
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W.  
SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE  
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 05N. LIGHT TO  
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL. AMERICA  
OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF  
05N ACROSS THE NW SOUTH AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY  
3-4 FT IN REGIONS OUTSIDE OF PAPAGAYO.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH TO  
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL  
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
BELOW 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS  
FORECAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND ECUADOR. SLIGHT  
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 17N125W SUPPORTING AN  
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. A SURFACE  
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS BEYOND THE  
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS  
IS JUST N OF THE THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 24N AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS  
ARE 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THIS WIND ZONE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS  
ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE  
EQUATOR, BETWEEN 110W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE  
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD, APPROACHING 140W BY FRI. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS  
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK  
TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM  
12N TO 24N AND W OF 130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS WILL  
DECREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N  
WATERS WEAKENING THE RIDGE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE  
FORECAST REGION EARLY ON FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND STRONGER  
COLD FRONT LATE ON SAT. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST  
TO REACH THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 9-13 FT BY SUN NIGHT.  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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