108
AXPZ20 KNHC 070917
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 123.7W AT 07/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO NEAR 26 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
MARIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED
STATES CAN BE FOUND AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
MARIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 109W FROM 03N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-114W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400 NM S OF THE
TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
T.S. MARIE.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ON THE OUTER FRINGE
OF MARIE ARE OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS MAINLY N OF 24N.
SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SWELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SWELL ARE OVER THE REST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL MOVE TO 24.8N 124.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 25.4N 125.8W TUE MORNING, 26.5N 126.9W TUE
AFTERNOON, 28.2N 127.9W WED MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
30.4N 129.2W WED AFTERNOON, AND 32.4N 130.8W THU MORNING. MARIE
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 36.0N 134.6W BY
EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK AS MARIE MOVES
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY AROUND
MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUILDING
RIDGING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN STRONG GAP
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THERE, WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR
GALE SPEEDS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS TUE THROUGH WED. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
T.S. MARIE.
OUTSIDE FROM MARINE IMPACTS ATTRIBUTED TO MARIE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THIS PART OF THE REGION, FRESH CYCLONIC
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST FROM 22N TO 26N AND WEST OF 138W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS OF
KARINA THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.S. MARIE WILL MOVE TO 24.8N 124.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 25.4N 125.8W TUE MORNING, 26.5N 126.9W TUE
AFTERNOON, 28.2N 127.9W WED MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
30.4N 129.2W WED AFTERNOON, AND 32.4N 130.8W THU MORNING. MARIE
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 36.0N 134.6W BY
EARLY FRI.
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEST OF 100W DURING THE WEEK. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE MIDDLE
OR LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
ERA
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