020
AXPZ20 KNHC 010310
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 1 2023
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 10N92W TO 07N119W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N119W TO 08N126W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
01N TO 13N E OF 95W, AND FROM 06N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
105W AND 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FURTHER TO THE W AND BEYOND 120W. ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE WESTERLY GAP WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS SEVERAL PROMINENT GAPS IN EACH PORTION OF THE GULF. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN S SWELL OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS GULF OF CALIFORNIA
DOWNWIND OF THE GAP WINDS, AND 1-3 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF, EXCEPT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE
NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS FROM THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
THROUGH MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W GAP WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRI. NEW N SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND THEN AGAIN MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S WINDS PREVAIL IN THE ECUADOR AND GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS OFFSHORE WATERS. MAINLY GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN MOSTLY CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 02N AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU
NIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT N OF 10N AND INTO
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SUN. MODERATE S TO SW CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL SEAS THROUGH SAT BEFORE
LARGE SW SWELL BUILDS INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, CENTERED ON A
1030 MB PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 38N.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 19N AND W OF 120W. FRESH NE
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT PREVAIL WITHIN 120 NM N OF AROUND 08N126W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND E OF 112W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
SEAS RANGE FROM 6-8 FT S OF 18N AND 5-6 FT N OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRI, BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN VERY
MODESTLY ACROSS THE TRADE WIND BELT OVER THE WEEKEND. A NEW
PULSE OF LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC ON SAT AND BUILD INTO SUN NIGHT, RAISING SEAS
TO 8-9 FT TO THE EAST OF 120W AND SOUTH OF 10N.
KONARIK
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