847
AXPZ20 KNHC 230944
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 08N78W
AND CONTINUES TO 09N88W TO 04N103W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THERE
TO 07N122W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 10N W OF 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS ALL
OF THE WATERS. LOCALLY MODERATE SW WINDS ARE ONGOING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N DUE TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW
SWELL OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS, AND 1-2 FT ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CONTINUING THE
QUIESCENT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BEGINNING ON FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA, COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA. A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, REACHING
DOWNWIND TO 88W PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SCATTEROMETER
ALSO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER THE COSTA RICA OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE TO E GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TODAY, THEN TO
MODERATE TO FRESH AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
AND EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING
AHEAD, MODERATE S SWELL SHOULD IMPACT THE EQUATORIAL ZONES ON SAT
AND SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AT 40N142W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND INTO
THE TROPICS TO ABOUT 15N. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADES FROM 03N TO 17N WEST OF 120W WITH 7-9 FT SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE OR WEAKER WITH 5-7 FT
IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
OUR N BORDER ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT, BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATE WINDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, ENHANCING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES SAT
AND SUN. A MODERATE S SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH OUR S BORDER
EAST OF 120W BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL SAT
NIGHT.
RAMOS
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