023
AXPZ20 KNHC 171513
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N88W TO 11N96W TO
10N102W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N102W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND
06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO
09N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W, FROM 05N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W,
AND FROM 06.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE OUTER BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, NEAR CABO CORRIENTES, AND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP THERE FRI THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE
AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SIMILAR WINDS WILL BE
WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WITH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER
PRESSURES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF 05N. S OF 05N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRESENT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD PER CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
31N133W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N AND
W OF 120W WHERE SEAS ARE 6-10 FT PER MULTIPLE RECENT ALTIMETER
PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 22N
AND W OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH
ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TODAY LEADING TO CONTINUING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE TRADEWIND BELT
WEST OF 120W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE N-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERALL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS DUE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 30N140W.
LEWITSKY
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