814
AXPZ20 KNHC 211820 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC FRI FEB 21 2020
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO
WILL PROVIDE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION TODAY. WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT, AND BUILDING SEAS TO 20 TO
22 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING. AT THAT TIME, A
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM 08.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W, WITH SEAS UP TO
13 OR 14 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY
SUN AFTERNOON. SWELL GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT COMBINED
WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND
110W BY SUN MORNING. MARINE INTEREST TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 OR
AT WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N90W TO 04N106W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 04N106W TO
04N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
07N BETWEEN 95W AND 89W, AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 129W AND
132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW-N WINDS, AND SEAS
MAINLY OF 4 TO 6 FT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS COULD
REACH 25 KT OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO
6-9 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION,
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NW SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR LATE TODAY THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL REACH UP TO
14-16 FT NEAR 11N95W.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS
WILL REACH BETWEEN 8-10 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
GULF OF PANAMA: FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DIMINISHING
SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT AT TIMES
WITH THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ANDES OVER EASTERN ECUADOR AND
SW COLOMBIA LATE SAT NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N126W TO 25N135W, WITH FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTIMETER DATA
SHOWS SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT
WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES.
FRESH NE-E SWELLS GENERATED BY GAP WIND EVENTS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PROPAGATE FAR FROM ITS
SOURCE REGION INTO AN AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 90W
AND 110W THIS WEEKEND, GRADUALLY DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GR
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