972
AXPZ20 KNHC 260332
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05S81W TO 02S97W TO 04S109W.
TWO SURFACE LOWS, BOTH ANALYZED AT 1007 MB, ARE ALONG THE TROUGH
WITH ONE LOW AT 04S85W AND THE OTHER AT 02S97W. THE ITCZ IS
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND RUNS FROM 04S109W TO BEYOND 02S140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10S TO 03S AND E
OF 85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT
FOR NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA WHERE NW WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT
AND THU. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF CABO
SAN LAZARO SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
W AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AND
MON NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 10N90W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. IN
ADDITION, EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO
ABOUT 02N88W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, THEN AGAIN MON
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS N OF AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL DOWNWIND
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
10N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL ARE NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N125W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N
OF 15N W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS OBSERVED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA
IN THE SW PART OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 17N W OF
135W WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. SEAS
GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. A
SET OF NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW WATERS, MAINLY W OF
130W AND N OF 20N, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. ROUGH SEAS
ARE ALSO NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF
5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
WATERS, REACHING FROM 30N135W TO 20N140W BY THU EVENING, THEN
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SAME AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION, THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL IMPACTING THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NW
WATERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ADAMS
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