982  
AXPZ20 KNHC 050855  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1005 UTC TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
HURRICANE BONNIE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 103.2W AT 05/0900 UTC  
MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972  
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.  
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 27 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG  
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF BONNIE'S CENTER. A WEST-  
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD  
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST  
TRACK, THE CORE OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT  
REMAIN SOUTH OF, THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO  
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED  
TO BEGIN THEREAFTER. PEAK SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 30 FT  
LATER TODAY AND WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY BONNIE WILL AFFECT  
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-  
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPEP4.SHTML AND FORECAST/  
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMEP4.SHTML FOR  
MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE BASIN AND EXTENDS ITS AXIS  
ALONG 86W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 09N, MOVING W AROUND  
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-10N  
BETWEEN 86W-91W.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO  
10N92W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 11N107W TO 09N119W,  
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 86W-91W AND  
FROM 02N-08N EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO  
NOTED FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 113W-133W.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON  
HURRICANE BONNIE.  
 
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALONG THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE  
WATERS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, EXPECT DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OFF THE  
COAST OF SW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK AS BONNIE MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. BONNIE SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY  
LATE FRI. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA  
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG AROUND 09N, VARIABLE WINDS ARE  
LIGHT TO GENTLE. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, S TO SW GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE  
CENTRAL AMERICAN AND EQUATORIAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON  
HURRICANE BONNIE.  
 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE NW CORNER OF OUR  
WATERS, EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 27N140W. SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH  
OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N140W TO 25N120W TO 20N110W. THE  
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER  
THE ITCZ IS FORCING GENTLE UP TO FRESH NE TRADES, STRONGEST  
BETWEEN 12N AND 22N. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,  
THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE AND TO THE SOUTH  
OF CLARION AND SOCORRO ISLANDS ON THU AND CONTINUE PROGRESSING  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND ON FRI. BEGINNING ON TUE, A  
LARGE LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
LANDSEA  
 
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