330
AXPZ20 KNHC 110405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF AMERICA WED NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
THU MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ALLOWING STRONG WINDS TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY REACH NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEEDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
ACCELERATE TO GALE SPEED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO 10 FT ON THU MORNING, BECOMING VERY ROUGH
TO 14 FT BY THU EVENING. GALES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE IN SPEED AND AREAL COVEREGE
THROUGH SAT MORNING.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04.5N77W TO 00.5N83W TO 01.5N93W TO
01.5N104W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 02N105W TO 02N127W TO BEYOND
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
S OF 03N BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W AND FROM 01N TO 02.5N
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON A
GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE
REGION AND COVERS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL
AS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES TO JALISCO. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORES
S OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND THE SOLUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE JALISCO, MEXICO. SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ROUGH TO 9 FT WHILE MODERATE SEAS IN THE 5 TO
7 FT RANGE ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, ALLOWING STRONG WINDS TO
FUNNEL ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY REACH NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEEDS
LATER IN THE MORNING AND ACCELERATE TO GALE SPEED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO 10 FT ON THU
MORNING, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO 14 FT BY THU EVENING. GALES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING, THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE IN
SPEED AND AREAL COVEREGE THROUGH SAT MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD
TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT THROUGH
THU, WHILE NEW NW SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND CABO CORRIENTES, INCLUDING LAS TRES MARIAS,
THROUGH WED EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE THE
RIDGE WEAKENS MODESTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E GAP WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNWIND
TO APPROXIMATELY 89W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNSTREAM TO 06N.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
IN SW SWELL. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE AREA. MODERATE N WINDS WILL ALSO
PULSE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SAT. MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION. AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 14N AND W OF
107W. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUSTAINING FRESH NE TO E
WINDS FROM 08N TO 21N BETWEEN 112W AND 140W. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED N AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE NW OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT, AND EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS. NEW NW
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORES TO ABOUT 130W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU, AND SUBSIDE
THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LARGE S-SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N AND NE, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS AS FAR N AS
20N THROUGH WED, BEFORE SUBSIDING FROM EAST TO WEST WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS MAINLY E OF
120W OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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