875
AXPZ20 KNHC 091522
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA BEGINNING ON SAT. WITH THIS, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEAR STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N97W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N97W TO 08N126W, THEN RESUMES NEAR 07N132W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N127W TO 06N129W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WHERE ROUGH SEAS
ARE PRESENT. FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NW AND SEAS ARE MODERATE. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE N OF 28N
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS PREVAIL AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
GULF. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT, EXCEPT TO MODERATE N OF 28N. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. NEAR STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT, WITH GALES PERSISTING THROUGH TUE MORNING.
LARGE SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
INTO SUN, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. A STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SAT EVENING WILL
RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS SPREADING TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF 08N AND WEST OF 120W,
WHERE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WIND WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF
110W. MAINLY GENTLE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FROM 09N TO 22N WEST OF 115W
THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS IN PLACE FOR
WATERS NORTH OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W SAT NIGHT, AND COVER THE
AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W BY LATE MON.
ERA
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