867
AXPZ20 KNHC 130807
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO: A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW. CURRENTLY,
WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SEAS OF TO 8
FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W, AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE NW BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR AT 02N NORTHWARD TO NEAR
THE PANAMA CANAL AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 99.5W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION, WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS ALSO IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 133W FROM 04N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N132W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 10N86W TO 09N94W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 09N98.5W, THEN RESUMES WEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N101W TO 04N119W TO 12N131W. ANOTHER
MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM 12.5N133.5W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W, WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 95W AND 114W, AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN
87W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO
12N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PER RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH MODERATE SEAS OBSERVED BY A PAIR OF
RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES, IN MIXED SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
MODERATE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH MODERATE SEAS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OAXACA TO ABOUT 11N BETWEEN 96W
AND 101W ALONG WITH MAINLY ROUGH SEAS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE
NW AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY MODERATE, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT OFFSHORE OF THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN AND SW
MEXICO AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE WEEK,
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION OBSERVED BY AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO FRESH TO STRONG IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS PER ASCAT AND OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS. AREAS OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TODAY DUE TO THE DEPARTING PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 110W.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE OBSERVED BY RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES, WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL. SOUTH OF 20N, THERE ARE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
21N121W TO 09N121W, WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE NEAR 99.5W AND
132W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA ANALYZED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 132W IS SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 97W AND 120W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS
MONITORING SEVERAL AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THREE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. ONE
IS A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WHICH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PRIMARILY EAST OF ITS CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ITS DEVELOPMENT CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECREASING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS. FINALLY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING WINDS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN OPEN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH.
LEWITSKY
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