325
AXPZ20 KNHC 100811
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W AND EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 128W AND EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 08N86W TO
07N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 08N110W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH RESUMES FROM 08N110W TO 12N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 06N TO 16N
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC CONFIRMED FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH 3-5 FT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT
SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE W OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT IN SW SWELL
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE MORNING, REACHING NEAR GALE-
FORCE SPEED AT NIGHT. THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A FETCH OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLIES WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THROUGH LATE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE. MODERATE OR WEAKER SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORES BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE PATTERN NORTH OF 20N. CONVERGENT
TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ARE ALTOGETHER SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 125W.
LOW PRESSURE MAY BE STARTING FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL AT 128W.
FRESH WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N
WEST OF 135W. FARTHER EAST, FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS
ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ARE REACHING AS FAR
AS 100W ALONG 08N TO 10N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST W OF 125W LIKELY THROUGH TUE. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE EAST PACIFIC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
CHRISTENSEN
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