046
AXPZ20 KNHC 112114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING
STORM-FORCE NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE
AREA. ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD RAPIDLY, REACHING VERY
ROUGH RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM MON MORNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY THU
MORNING, GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL RESUME DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N100W TO 10N126W, THEN RESUMES W OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 10N132W TO 09N140W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N129W
TO 05N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N AND E
OF 85W, AND FROM 07N TO 16N AND W OF 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE STORM WARNING OVER
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE GALE WARNING
DESCRIBED ABOVE, IS ALSO RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN PASSAGES INTO ITS
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA'S OFFSHORE
WATERS ARE IN THE ROUGH RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE S AND SW
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE ON MON MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING IS POSSIBLE ON THU,
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON.
AFTER THAT, FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WITH ROUGH SEAS
AT TIMES. PULSING FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL FROM A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.
THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR STARTING TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL RESUME THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS AND DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO
18N. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM
JUST N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 25N. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE
ROUGH PER RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AND SEAS MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FAR WESTERN TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MON ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO AFFECT THE OPEN WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NEW
NW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN WATERS W OF 130W TUE EVENING AND
SUBSIDE THU EVENING.
ERA
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