319  
AXPZ20 KNHC 250338  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC MON MAY 25 2020  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0315 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND  
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF GUATEMALA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10  
KT. AT THE PRESENT TIME, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 07N.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OVER  
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WESTWARD TO ACROSS NORTHERN  
PANAMA AND TO THE COAST AT 09N84W. IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST TO  
11N96W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N109W 1008 MB, THEN TO LOW PRESSURE  
NEAR 10N121W 1011 MB AND TO ANOTHER 1011 LOW NEAR 10N132W, WHERE  
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ  
TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG  
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH  
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 126W-127W AND WITHIN  
30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 124W-126W.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N136W TO THE  
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER  
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS  
SUPPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WEST OF  
BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. WAVE  
HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 5-6  
FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2  
FT RANGE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS WILL  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A  
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES FROM  
NEAR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL  
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES  
SOUTH OF 10N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON  
TROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ARE DUE TO SOUTHWEST  
SWELL.  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. MODERATE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO  
NEAR 8 FT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE  
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM A FEW HUNDRED  
MILES SOUTH OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA AND AND  
EL SALVADOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED  
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
WITH GUSTY WINDS, TO THESE WATERS.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR  
34N136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW  
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN THE MONSOON  
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE  
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE  
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE  
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM SUN AFTERNOON  
REVEALED A FEW AREAS OF WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON  
TROUGH. ONE OF 1008 MB IS NEAR 11N109W, ANOTHER ONE WITH A  
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS NEAR 10N121W AND ANOTHER ONE WITH THE SAME  
PRESSURE IS NEAR 10N132W.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE NIGHT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 102W-118W. THIS WILL  
HELP BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT OVER THESE WATERS.  
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART  
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP  
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE TROUGHING NEAR 25N130W.  
 

 
AGUIRRE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page