309
AXPZ20 KNHC 190140
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT LARGE NW SWELL: NEW LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL WITH
SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER IS JUST N OF 26N AND PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD, WHILE ROUGH SEAS COVER A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF IT,
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 110W. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND
15 FT ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 12 FT BY THU EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND LARGE NW SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NW WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 02N98W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
02N98W TO 02S120W, CONTINUING W OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO SUPPORTS FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS ACROSS NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO NEAR-GALE SW WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 29N TO 31N DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AND REACHING FROM 31N112.5W TO 30N115W. SEAS ARE 4
TO 7 FT THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N
OF 19N, WITH LIGHT GO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FT IN OLD NW SWELL IS FOUND OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
WITH NEW NW SWELL OF 8 TO 14 FT MOVING IN ACROSS THE WATERS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, PRODUCING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY FRI. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SW WIND OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN, FRESH
TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU, THEN AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY MON DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
DECAYING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A STRONG GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEING SO FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE MON NIGHT. VERY LARGE
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS GAP WIND EVENT. PLEASE STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND VEER NE AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA. WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SOME ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE NORTH, CONTINUING THROUGH
THU NIGHT, THEN BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. FRESH TO
NEAR-GALE WINDS MAY RETURN THERE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH
THE EVENING, RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SEND OUTER FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS INTO THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, AND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE EVENT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER FAR NW MAINLAND MEXICO TO
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT. VERY ROUGH SWELLS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NEAR
30N140W TO OFFSHORE SW MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING PREVAILS
JUST W OF 140W TO THE W-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W. ASSOCIATED
FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS COVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 13N
TO 30N MAINLY BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE
OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. FOR SEAS, ROUGH
SEAS COVER THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 30N BETWEEN 114W AND 140W. VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W, WITH
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
THE ITCZ WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE
W-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR OR JUST W OF 140W. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES N OF THE
ITCZ TO NEAR 24N AND W OF 130W THROUGH EARLY FRI, ALONG WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. EXPECT ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ACCOMPANY THESE INCREASING TRADES. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. NEW,
LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELLS MAY MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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