697
AXPZ20 KNHC 240300
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
050 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 137.0W AT 24/0300 UTC
MOVING NW AT 10 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WNW THEN W IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
TUESDAY, AND KIKO SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
WEDNESDAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 05N98W TO 15N98W IS
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 05N108W TO 17N107W
IS MOVING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND
110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N76W TO 07N81W TO 13N95W TO
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N100W TO 15N111W TO 13N130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 10N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TAKING
PLACE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W AND FROM 11N TO 14N W
OF 130W. LOW PRES MEASURING 1010 MB IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 13N100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 114.6W THIS
EVENING AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE AND DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TUE.
TCPEP3
LOOKING AHEAD, SW MONSOON FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WED THROUGH FRI AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK, WHICH WOULD
FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS AND BUILD OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF
8 FT.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH FRI AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE, THEN BUILD TO 8 FT OR GREATER BY LATE
WEEK ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUATEMALA TO NORTHERN COSTA
RICA.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. KIKO AND A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 39N139W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO THE N OF KIKO FROM 17N TO 28N W
OF 130W AS INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA. MIXED SWELL FROM KIKO IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF 8 FT
SEAS OR GREATER ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 26N W OF 132W. THIS AREA OF
8 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF KIKO THROUGH WED
AS IT PASSES TO THE W OF THE FORECAST REGION. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON T.S. KIKO.
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED JUST N OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
GENERATED N OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 9
AND 10 FT FOR THE WATERS N OF 28N AND W OF 125W BY WED MORNING
AND FOR THE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 125W BY THU MORNING.
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 13N100W OR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO NW DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
CAM
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