303
AXPZ20 KNHC 260250
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 26 2021
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
THE REMNANTS OF RICK ARE CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 103.1W AT 26/0300
UTC MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RICK
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN THROUGH TONIGHT, AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS
GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPEP2.SHTML AND
FORECAST/ADVISORY AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 79W FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR THE COLOMBIA-ECUADOR BORDER,
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 94W NORTH OF 01N INTO MEXICO NEAR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO
ACROSS PANAMA TO 10N90W TO 13N94W, THEN RESUMES FROM 15N104W TO
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N112W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
11N122W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N137W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W, WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 117W, BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, AND
BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
RICK.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM THE WEST.
LARGE NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN MIXED SWELL.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SW-W WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH GAPS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS
TO 5 FT THERE, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG SW GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WED
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OPEN OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER POSSIBLE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOOKING
AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BY THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE
ECUADOR IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 26N130W TO 24N140W. A SET OF
NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WITH SEAS AROUND
20 FT ALONG 30N. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 06N IN
REMNANT MIXED SWELL, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 06N. NW-N WINDS MAY
BE LOCALLY STRONG JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF 125W THIS
EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WHILE THE LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD, WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BY
WED NIGHT. WINDS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DIMINISH BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION SLACKENS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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