062
AXPZ20 KNHC 251603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SONIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD FAR FROM LAND. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 118.1W AT
25/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PEAKING AROUND 16 FT (5
M). THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
TODAY. A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AND SONIA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AB OUT 90 NM
W SEMICIRCLE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SONIA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 99W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 09N95W AND TO 11N105W, THEN
RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA NEAR 11N122W TO 07N136W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 78W AND 86W, AND FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND EXTENDS TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE SATELLITE WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE AFFECTING
THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. LASTLY, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF SW AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS LATE THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN
IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY MON MORNING. THEREAFTER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA BY MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, AT WHICH TIME ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL SET
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAME WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
ON TUE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF PANAMA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUSTAINS MODERATE
S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE ARE PREVALENT NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONSHORE
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 10N ON SUN AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM SONIA.
OUTSIDE OF SONIA, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 110W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST
OF 120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 8 TO 11 FT DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N. MEANWHILE, THE
SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W
OF 115W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED BY
TROPICAL STORM SONIA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM SONIA IS NEAR
13.5N 118.1W AT 8 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SONIA WILL MOVE TO 13.6N 118.9W THIS
EVENING, 13.7N 119.7W SUN MORNING, 13.9N 120.3W SUN EVENING,
14.4N 121.0W MON MORNING, 14.9N 122.1W MON EVENING, AND 15.2N
123.3W TUE MORNING. SONIA WILL WEAKEN AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR 15.0N 126.5W EARLY WED.
GR
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