023
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO
04N81W TO 07N92W TO 04N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N115W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04S106W
TO 02S137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03S-05N BETWEEN 86W-97W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN
105W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 20N110W TO 15N108W.
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE NW MODERATE TO FRESH OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS NW OF CAPE CORRIENTES AND OVER THE S GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 5-6
FT IN NW SWELL NW OF CAPE CORRIENTES, 4-5 FT IN S SWELL SE OF
CAPE CORRIENTES, 3-5 FT OVER THE S GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 1-2 FT
OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON
FRI. ELSEWHERE, LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA
SHOULD CAUSE A TEHUANTEPER GAP WIND EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN S SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03S-05N BETWEEN 86W-97W
AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 105W-140W INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE FRESH NE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE GALAPAGOS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, BY THU NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN AND EQUATORIAL WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N136W TO 30N125W TO
20N110W TO 15N108W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES OVER FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN
MIXED SWELL. NO ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AWAY FROM
THE SURFACE TROUGH/ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WINDS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT WATERS NORTH OF
27N AND EAST OF 125W THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LANDSEA
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