532
AXPZ20 KNHC 301544
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 102.6W AT 30/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 15 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, IN BANDS,
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. FLOSSIE IS A
LITTLE STRONGER. STEADY-TO-RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N94W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 14N112W TO 08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF CABO SAN
LUCAS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OUTSIDE OF FLOSSIE, SEAS ARE MODERATE IN
MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 16.5N
103.8W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N 105.4W
TUE MORNING, 18.2N 106.9W TUE EVENING, 19.2N 108.2W WED MORNING,
20.0N 109.3W WED EVENING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
20.9N 110.4W THU MORNING. FLOSSIE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 23.0N 112.6W EARLY FRI. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE,
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 05N, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
N OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
FORECAST, MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WED. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS
EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N138W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 16N BETWEEN 115W
AND 119W. ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 4 TO 6
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY THU NIGHT, AND N
OF 26N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W BY FRI MORNING.
GR
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