303  
AXPZ20 KNHC 260250  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC TUE OCT 26 2021  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0200 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF RICK ARE CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 103.1W AT 26/0300  
UTC MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30  
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH  
OF 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RICK  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND  
MICHOACAN THROUGH TONIGHT, AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL  
LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS  
GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST  
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE  
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.  
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPEP2.SHTML AND  
FORECAST/ADVISORY AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 79W FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR THE COLOMBIA-ECUADOR BORDER,  
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED  
BELOW.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 94W NORTH OF 01N INTO MEXICO NEAR  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED  
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO  
ACROSS PANAMA TO 10N90W TO 13N94W, THEN RESUMES FROM 15N104W TO  
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N112W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR  
11N122W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N137W TO 10N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM  
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W, WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 117W, BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, AND  
BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON  
RICK.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FROM THE WEST.  
LARGE NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT  
MOVING INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS  
ARE 6 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN MIXED SWELL.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SW-W WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG ARE FUNNELING  
THROUGH GAPS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS  
TO 5 FT THERE, AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG SW GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT IN  
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WED  
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE  
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OPEN OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS 12 FT OR  
GREATER POSSIBLE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
NORTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OFF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOOKING  
AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
BY THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL  
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE  
ECUADOR IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS PERSIST  
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTH OF  
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 26N130W TO 24N140W. A SET OF  
NW SWELL IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER  
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N WITH SEAS AROUND  
20 FT ALONG 30N. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 06N IN  
REMNANT MIXED SWELL, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 06N. NW-N WINDS MAY  
BE LOCALLY STRONG JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF 125W THIS  
EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE  
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH  
MID-WEEK WHILE THE LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE  
SOUTHWARD, WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BY  
WED NIGHT. WINDS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DIMINISH BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ACROSS THE REGION SLACKENS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED  
SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO  
LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
LEWITSKY  
 
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