714
AXPZ20 KNHC 211951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 044N102W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N102W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 97W AND 121W, AND
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 8-11
FT, CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PERSIST ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
MAY START SUN NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE STARTING
MONDAY.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 90W. ROUGH SEAS OF
7 TO 9 FT ARE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA IN SWELL GENERATED BY THE
PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT. MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS IN
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SUPPORT PULSING OF MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NW
TO N SWELL GENERATED BY PREVIOUS GALES OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OVER TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRING A
NEW SET OF LARGE NW TO N SWELL OVER THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A PLUME OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT CONSISTING OF SHORTER-
PERIOD NE AND E WINDS WAVES GENERATED FROM THE ONGOING
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENTS MIXING WITH LONGER
PERIOD NW SWELL EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
96W AND 114W. SUBSIDING NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT OVER
THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N AND WEST OF 138W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND MODERATE COMBINED SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL,
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PLUME OF ROUGH SEAS THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LARGE NW
SWELL WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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