020  
AXPZ20 KNHC 010310  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC THU JUN 1 2023  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0300 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 10N92W TO 07N119W. THE  
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N119W TO 08N126W TO BEYOND 02N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM  
01N TO 13N E OF 95W, AND FROM 06N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN  
105W AND 129W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
 
 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS  
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FURTHER TO THE W AND BEYOND 120W. ACROSS  
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE WESTERLY GAP WINDS PREVAIL  
ACROSS SEVERAL PROMINENT GAPS IN EACH PORTION OF THE GULF. GENTLE  
TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS  
OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN S SWELL OVER THE OPEN WATERS  
OFF MEXICO. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS GULF OF CALIFORNIA  
DOWNWIND OF THE GAP WINDS, AND 1-3 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE  
GULF, EXCEPT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE  
NOTED.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL  
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A  
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS FROM THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY  
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA  
THROUGH MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W GAP WINDS WILL  
BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
FRI. NEW N SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THU  
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND THEN AGAIN MON.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE S WINDS PREVAIL IN THE ECUADOR AND GALAPAGOS  
ISLANDS OFFSHORE WATERS. MAINLY GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL  
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN MOSTLY CROSS  
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 02N AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU  
NIGHT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT N OF 10N AND INTO  
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SUN. MODERATE S TO SW CROSS  
EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL SEAS THROUGH SAT BEFORE  
LARGE SW SWELL BUILDS INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO MON  
NIGHT.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, CENTERED ON A  
1030 MB PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 38N.  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND  
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE  
TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 19N AND W OF 120W. FRESH NE  
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT PREVAIL WITHIN 120 NM N OF AROUND 08N126W.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE MONSOON  
TROUGH AND E OF 112W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.  
SEAS RANGE FROM 6-8 FT S OF 18N AND 5-6 FT N OF 18N.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRI, BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING  
GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN VERY  
MODESTLY ACROSS THE TRADE WIND BELT OVER THE WEEKEND. A NEW  
PULSE OF LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EASTERN  
TROPICAL PACIFIC ON SAT AND BUILD INTO SUN NIGHT, RAISING SEAS  
TO 8-9 FT TO THE EAST OF 120W AND SOUTH OF 10N.  
 

 
KONARIK  
 
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