876
AXPZ20 KNHC 290418
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 98W FROM NEAR PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W
AND 102W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 123W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W
AND 131W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
CORRECTED
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA TO
09N85W TO 07N91W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM
07N91W TO 07N97W, THEN FROM 07N99W TO 11N122W, AND FROM 10N124W
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN
80W AND 85W, AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
120W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE REST OF THE ITCZ FROM 00N TO 07N
WEST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO,
SOUTHWARD TO THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS UP TO 8 FT PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION FROM 30N TO 31N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER OVER THAT PORTION OF
THE GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DIURNAL TROUGH. SEAS OVER
THE REST OF THE GULF ARE ALSO 3 TO 4 FT, EXCEPT AT THE ENTRANCE,
WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SWELL ARE PRESENT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES
GENERALLY REVEAL LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
FROM THE NIGHTTIME TO LATE MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING
THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG W TO SW WINDS SHOULD PULSE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA UNTIL EARLY MON MORNING, AND AGAIN
MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NW SWELL IS GOING
TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS AT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE MON AND TUE.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. AFTERNOON
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM
OF THESE WINDS, ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS AS
DETECTED BY MULTIPLE ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES, AND 5 TO 6
FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NE TO E SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CREATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WELL
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL SHOULD KEEP MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND OFF ECUADOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SPORADIC
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
COLOMBIA COAST, SPREADING TO SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY
MON EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF
ABOUT 20N. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF 10N AND WEST OF 119W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WEST OF 112W DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LONG-PERIOD NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL WITH
TRADE WIND GENERATED WAVES. TO THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST SWELL IS
INDUCING SEAS UP TO 10 FT SOUTH OF 02N BETWEEN 87W AND 120W AS NOTED
IN VARIOUS ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MOSTLY MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST
TO NORTH SWELL, EXCEPT MIXED WITH EAST SWELL WEST OF 129W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 122W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY LATE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY
SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO DECAY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CHAN
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