643
AXPZ20 KNHC 150900
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W, NORTH OF 02N THROUGH WESTERN
PANAMA, MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE NEAR THIS WAVE OVER PACIFIC WATERS AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W, NORTH OF 02N INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO,
MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 03N TO 18N MOVING WEST AT
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 15N105W TO
09N120W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO BEYOND
06N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE
FROM 04N TO 08N WEST OF 80W, AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM A RELATIVELY DEEP 1001 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AS
NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC. SEAS ARE
LIKELY 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 2 TO 3 FT FARTHER SOUTH. FARTHER WEST, WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PACIFIC TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE NW BREEZES
AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT NIGHT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE WILL PERSIST
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
ABOUT 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH
OF 06N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 06N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 05N THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF 05N. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5
FT RANGE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF 15N, WEST OF 120W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 4-6 FT SEAS IN
A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY PRODUCING IN GENERAL A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MODERATE SEAS. A
BUILDING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT
SAT WEST OF 130W. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 110W BY LATE
SAT, ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TRADE WIND AREA WEST OF
130W SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SUPPORT 6-8 FT COMBINED SEAS
SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 135W EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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