487
AXPZ20 KNHC 230408
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 12N.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SE GULF OF AMERICA, WILL PROVIDE A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO STORM-FORCE SHORTLY TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
20 FT. STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 24 FT. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG
GALE FORCE SPEEDS TUE MORNING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE UNTIL DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. LARGE SEAS GENERATED FROM THIS VERY STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT WILL SPREAD WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, WITH SEAS
8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W, AND AS FAR SOUTH
THAN 04N BY MON NIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS TRANSITING ACROSS OR IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS GAP
WIND EVENT, AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE AFFECTED WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY ON WED.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10
FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUE MORNING
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR AND NW PERU ARE EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO PERSISTING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (100 TO 150 MM) ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES (150
TO 200 MM). THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 01N105W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
03S103W TO 01S130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE PANAMA
OFFSHORE WATERS.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROVIDES FOR
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS ARE NEAR 7 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
31N122W DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS
IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 88W, WITH SEAS CURRENTLY TO 4 TO 6 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
25 TO 30 KT ON MON, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUE MORNING THROUGH
WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND JUST S OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA TO ABOUT 03N MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT
WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION, THE
LARGE EXTENT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THESE WATERS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE AREA PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB SITUATED NEAR 31N122W DOMINATES THE
WATERS N OF 18N AND W OF 110W, INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FT IN DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE NOTED S OF 20N AND W OF
120W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 4 TO
6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
WATERS, AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A NEW SET OF LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS TO 14 FT
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION ON MON. IN THE
MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. LOOKING AHEAD, A
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N140W ON WED,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page