997  
FONT11 KNHC 192041  
PWSAT1  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019  
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019  
 
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
NORFOLK VA 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)  
 
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)  
 
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)  
 
RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)  
 
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 44(44) 15(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)  
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)  
 
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)  
 
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)  
CHERRY PT NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 56(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)  
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)  
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
SURF CITY NC 34 X 66(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)  
SURF CITY NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 68(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)  
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 64(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)  
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
FLORENCE SC 34 23 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)  
 
COLUMBIA SC 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)  
 
LITTLE RIVER 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)  
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 59(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)  
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
GEORGETOWN SC 34 32 41(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)  
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
CHARLESTON SC 34 66 11(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)  
CHARLESTON SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)  
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
AUGUSTA GA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)  
 
SAVANNAH GA 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)  
SAVANNAH GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
KINGS BAY GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)  
 
WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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