143  
FONT14 KNHC 120848  
PWSAT4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018  
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018  
 
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)  
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)  
 
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)  
 
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
PTX BASQUES 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 46(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)  
SABLE ISLAND 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
YARMOUTH NS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
HYANNIS MA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
NANTUCKET MA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
MONTAUK POINT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)  
 
CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
NEW RIVER NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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