769  
FOPZ13 KNHC 192036  
PWSEP3  
 
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018  
2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)  
 
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)  
 
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)  
 
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)  
 
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)  
 
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17)  
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)  
 
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)  
 
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17)  
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)  
 
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21)  
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)  
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)  
 
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19)  
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)  
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)  
 
10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)  
 
15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 27(29) 12(41) 1(42)  
15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)  
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)  
 
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)  
 
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)  
 
P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)  
 
HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)  
 
10N 95W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)  
 
15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)  
 
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)  
 
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
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