388  
FZPN03 KNHC 181618  
HSFEP2  
 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1630 UTC WED SEP 18 2019  
 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS  
 
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE  
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE  
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.  
 
SECURITE  
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE  
EQUATOR E OF 120W  
 
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 18.  
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 19.  
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 20.  
 
.WARNINGS.  
   
..HURRICANE WARNING
 
 
.TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 17.4N 103.5W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP  
18 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT  
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE  
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 20 NM NW  
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT  
120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW  
AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.  
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W WINDS 20  
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 18.6N 104.4W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 19.8N 105.4W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR  
GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 60 NM NW  
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS  
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.  
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 102W  
AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 20.5N 106.2W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 21.2N 107.4W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  
WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR  
GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO  
18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20  
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA E OF LINE FROM  
16N107W TO 21N111W TO 23N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12  
FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 22.4N 110.0W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.  
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 24.0N 112.4W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.  
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 26.7N 114.2W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.  
   
..HURRICANE WARNING
 
 
.TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 14.5N 111.0W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP  
18 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT  
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE AND SW  
QUADRANTS...40 NM NW QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT  
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH  
SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM S AND 150 NM E QUADRANTS  
AND WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13  
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W  
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIO NEAR 16.2N 112.6W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  
WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE  
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE...150 NM SE  
QUADRANTS AMD 0 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE  
WITHIN 390 NM S AND 180 NM E QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 90 NM NW  
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF  
AREA FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  
SEAS TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIO NEAR 17.4N 113.1W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF  
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE  
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER AND 390 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.  
SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA BOUNDED BY 25N115W TO  
13N105W TO 07N116W TO 19N123W TO 25N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 18.3N 113.1W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.  
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 20.2N 114.1W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.  
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 22.3N 115.6W.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.  
 
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE  
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE  
AND INTENSITY.  
   
..HURRICANE WARNING
 
 
.TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.0N 126.7W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP  
18 MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT  
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N  
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN  
90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW  
AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.  
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W WINDS 20  
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 15.8N 128.4W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW  
AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN  
210 NM NW AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO  
15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W  
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 16.6N 129.8W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  
WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE  
WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.  
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 127W  
AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 17.0N 131.2W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.  
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 16.0N 133.5W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.  
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 15.5N 136.5W. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.  
 
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE  
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE  
AND INTENSITY.  
 
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.  
 
.LOW PRES NEAR 14N135W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE  
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N136W 1009 MB. WITHIN 150 NM  
N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 14N137W 1010 MB. WINDS  
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  
 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 03.4S110W TO 01S116W WINDS 20  
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 03.4S109W TO 00N120W WINDS 20  
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.  
 
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  
 
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC WED SEP 18...  
   
TROPICAL STORM KIKO
 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN  
150 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE  
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W.  
   
TROPICAL STORM LORENA
 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG  
WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.  
   
TROPICAL STORM MARIO
 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG  
WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W AND 123W.  
   
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N73W TO 08N78W TO 14N97W...RESUMES FROM  
14N131W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 14N135W TO BEYOND 12N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N E OF  
86W...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W AND FROM 12N TO 16N  
BETWEEN 134W AND 137W.  
 

 
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
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