828
WTNT34 KNHC 100843
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES WITH ISAIAS
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 86.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY, AND ISAIAS IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS.
FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
TORNADOES: A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS.
STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SURF: SWELLS FROM ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
GULF COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES, MEXICO, AND WESTERN CUBA THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1000 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES ARE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
FORECASTER BLAKE
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