656  
WTNT41 KNHC 192041  
TCDAT1  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019  
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019  
 
THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR MADE LANDFALL ALONG ON  
ST. VINCENT ISLAND, FLORIDA, AROUND 1730 UTC. SINCE THEN, THAT  
CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN  
APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. HOWEVER, DURING THE PAST HOUR, A NEW  
CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED FARTHER WEST ALONG A QUASI-OCCLUDED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EARLIER 40-45 KT WINDS OVER WATER HAVE MOVED  
INLAND AND WEAKENED, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON  
A RECENT WIND REPORT OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 KT AT 5-METERS  
ELEVATION FROM NOAA BUOY 41008/GRAY'S REEF, GEORGIA.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHEASTWARD OR 055/20 KT.  
NESTOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR  
SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE  
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ON DAYS 2 AN 3, UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS  
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING A  
WEAKENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR BEHIND. THE CYCLONE SHOULD  
THEN DISSIPATE OR MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 H OFFSHORE  
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR  
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE  
TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE  
ROBUST CIRCULATION MOVING OUT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE FAR  
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHERE LESS FRICTION WILL AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE  
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS AN AVERAGE OF THE 1200  
UTC GFS, UKMET, AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON  
NESTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH  
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS  
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS  
AND ALONG THE COASTS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TONIGHT, AND  
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.  
 
2. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  
UNITED STATES INTO SUNDAY.  
 
3. WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL  
BE COVERED BY NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS  
OFFICES, SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL  
CHARACTERISTICS AFTER IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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