704  
WTNT41 KNHC 101441  
TCDAT1  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020  
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020  
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, DOPPLER RADAR DATA, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM  
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE NO  
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE  
WINDS IN THE AREAS WHERE THE RADAR DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS  
ARE OCCURRING, SO BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO  
30 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE  
ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND  
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS, AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHEASTWARD OR 035/14. THE FLOW  
BETWEEN A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE  
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DELTA  
OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM  
DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IT LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND DELTA IS FORECAST TO  
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN ABOUT 24 H. THE  
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN  
TO A TROUGH BETWEEN 48-60 H, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS  
THIS SCENARIO.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DELTA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC  
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT  
4 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON  
THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY ALONG THE  
LOUISIANA COAST. CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
2. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE  
HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN  
ARKANSAS.  
 
3. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR RIVER  
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS TODAY, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.  
MINOR TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THOUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND  
24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
 
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