477
WTNT41 KNHC 101443
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
300 PM GMT FRI OCT 10 2025
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO KAREN'S STRUCTURE OR INTENSITY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE AND AN 1110 UTC ASCAT
PASS DETECTED PEAK WINDS OF 38 KT. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF ST2.5.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
OF 11 KT. KAREN'S SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. KAREN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THAT THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WANE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE, SOME WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 12 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER, KAREN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 46.3N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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