157  
WTNT41 KNHC 191446  
TCDAT1  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020  
1100 AM AST TUE MAY 19 2020  
 
ARTHUR HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THIS MORNING WITH  
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION, ANY DEEP  
CONVECTION ONLY ALONG THE FRONT, AND LOTS OF MORE STABLE CUMULUS  
CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER. THUS THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND MODEL  
ANALYSES.  
 
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDE A QUICKER  
DISSIPATION OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, SOMEWHAT LINKED TO THE  
MODELS SHOWING A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS, AND A  
CONTINUATION OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN A DAY  
OR TWO. THESE CHANGES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL  
CONSENSUS FOR TRACK AND SIMILAR TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR INTENSITY.  
 
DANGEROUS COASTAL SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S.  
COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page