125  
WTNT41 KNHC 150839  
TCDAT1  
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020  
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2020  
 
JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED BURSTS OF DEEP  
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER,  
WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY BANDING FEATURES. IN SPITE OF THE  
SHEAR, THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING HIGH-LEVEL OUTFLOW INTO THE  
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT  
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER-BASED  
OBSERVATIONS, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. AN AIR FORCE  
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM  
LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD INTENSITY  
ESTIMATE. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BECOME  
QUITE STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO  
COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE  
PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL  
DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS  
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THIS TIME, BUT IT IS  
BELIEVED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF  
DEEP CONVECTION. THIS LEADS TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL  
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/13 KT. JOSEPHINE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY  
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST  
OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA, AND THEN TO TURN NORTHWEST,  
NORTH, AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE  
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NOAA CORRECTED MODEL  
CONSENSUS PREDICTION.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. JOSEPHINE SHOULD PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD  
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND TO PREVENT MAJOR IMPACTS. HOWEVER,  
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS UNTIL THE  
STORM HAS PASSED NORTH OF THAT AREA.  
 
2. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD  
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO AS JOSEPHINE PASSES BY  
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PUERTO  
RICO THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH  
24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH  
48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH  
60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH  
72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH  
96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
 
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