082  
WTNT41 KNHC 230235  
TCDAT1  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018  
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2018  
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE EARLIER TODAY, IT HAS  
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CENTER  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. AFTER MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME  
DISRUPTED BY CONVECTION TO ITS EAST, AND IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT  
IF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY  
IS NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE AND RECENT ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 0000Z  
WAS INCONCLUSIVE, AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED UNDER  
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT QUITE YET DISSIPATED.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE  
SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/3 KT. NO  
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY OR TRACK  
FORECASTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE  
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG  
WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, IT NO LONGER  
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRIOR TO  
DISSIPATING. THEREFORE, THE NHC FORECAST NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 36 H, IF NOT SOONER.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH  
12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH  
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W 20 KT 25 MPH  
36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER ZELINSKY  
 
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