947  
WTNT42 KNHC 180239  
TCDAT2  
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023  
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2023  
 
THE BROAD DISTURBANCE HAS FAILED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE  
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE EARLIER  
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THE DISTURBANCE WAS ONLY  
PRODUCING PEAK WINDS OF 25-30 KT. GIVEN ITS LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED  
SURFACE CENTER, POOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, AND THE CONTINUED  
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IT FACES, THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER  
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, THE RISK OF  
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED,  
AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THEREFORE,  
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  
 
THE REMNANTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE  
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEKEND.  
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS  
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY.  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS  
OF 14 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS, WHICH IS  
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS  
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER  
NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS  
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES  
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS JAMAICA, THE  
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 18/0300Z 20.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER REINHART  
 
 
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