700  
WTNT42 KNHC 111442  
TCDAT2  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022  
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2022  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY, NWS RADAR DATA, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INDICATE THAT NICOLE STILL HAS A WELL-ENOUGH  
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE  
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL  
THAT ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1001 MB WHILE ITS  
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 KT. THOSE WINDS ARE OCCURING  
JUST OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH NICOLE'S WINDS  
ARE DECREASING, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF TORNADOES TODAY, ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE  
NORTHEAST OF NICOLE'S CENTER IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.  
 
THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATED NORTHWARD EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW  
APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE WILL LIKELY BECOME POORLY DEFINED  
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO  
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  
 
SINCE NICOLE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH NO TROPICAL WIND OR STORM  
SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY  
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION  
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO POPULATE ON THE NHC WEBSITE AS LONG AS  
NICOLE REMAINS A FLOODING THREAT TO THE U.S.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. RENEWED RIVER FLOODING ON THE ST. JOHNS RIVER (FL) IS ONGOING.  
ISOLATED FLASH, URBAN, AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON  
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, PARTICULARLY IN  
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS  
WILL EXTEND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN OHIO, WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA,  
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH  
12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY  
 
 
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