335
WTNT42 KNHC 262038
TCDAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
800 PM CVT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO HAS
BECOME EVEN FURTHER SEPARATED FROM ITS CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
INCREASED SEPARATION IS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, DIAGNOSED AT NEARLY 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON BY UW-CIMSS. IN
ADDITION, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, LIMITING CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THAT
THE NEAREST CONVECTION IS NOW MORE THAN 100 N MI AWAY FROM THE
CENTER, LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION, AND THAT THESE VERY
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, GONZALO IS BEING
DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT, ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS EXIST IN
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
045 DEGREES AT 6 KT. DOWNSHEAR CONVECTION MAY STILL ATTEMPT TO TUG
THE CENTER MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H. HOWEVER, AS THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES, A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
REMNANT LOW MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.3N 23.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 20.1N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 20.8N 23.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 21.3N 24.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 21.5N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 21.7N 25.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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