554  
WTNT42 KNHC 142033  
TCDAT2  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019  
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019  
 
BARRY'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS  
CONTINUED TO ERODE, AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO  
LOCATE IN RADAR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SHREVEPORT,  
LOUISIANA, AREA WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING BARRY'S POSITION. ALTHOUGH  
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 34-36 KT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE  
PAST FEW HOURS AT THE NOAA NOS SITE AT CALCASIEU PASS, LOUISIANA  
(PACL1), THOSE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY'S  
CIRCULATION AND ARE INSTEAD LOCALLY ACCELERATED STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.  
THEREFORE, BARRY'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS  
ADVISORY, MAKING THE CYCLONE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT. BARRY IS FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY  
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE, AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST  
AND NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST  
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND  
OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA, TVDG, AND HCCA.  
 
BARRY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE  
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND, DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY OVER  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
EVEN THOUGH BARRY IS WEAKENING, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, INCLUDING RIVER FLOODING, WILL CONTINUE FROM  
LOUISIANA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER ON BARRY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN  
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING  
AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND  
ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG BARRY'S PATH  
INLAND FROM LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI,  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA.  
 
2. GALE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO  
THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  
HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY'S  
CIRCULATION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND  
24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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