479  
WTNT42 KNHC 230833  
TCDAT2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021  
900 AM GMT THU SEP 23 2021  
 
ROSE HAS WITHERED AWAY. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT PRODUCED ORGANIZED DEEP  
CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS NOW, AND THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM NO  
LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY OF THE REMNANT LOW IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER  
ASCAT DATA.  
 
ROSE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS  
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEAST TO EAST MOTION AS THE  
SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER  
TROUGH. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF  
DAYS AND COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  
HOWEVER, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR  
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING.  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE CAN BE FOUND IN  
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER  
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 23/0900Z 25.2N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
 
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