187  
WTNT42 KNHC 141435  
TCDAT2  
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025  
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
LORENZO REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED STORM OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP  
CONVECTION, ONE OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE  
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN AND NOW RANGE FROM 30  
TO 39 KT. IN ADDITION, VERY RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW PEAK WINDS OF  
ABOUT 35 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED  
TO 40 KT.  
 
LORENZO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. A TURN TO THE  
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN  
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TURN  
NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING  
MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN  
ATLANTIC. IF THE STORM SURVIVES, THE SYSTEM COULD TURN EASTWARD OR  
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND NO BIG CHANGES WERE  
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.  
 
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SHEARED AND DRY ENVIRONMENT,  
AND THOSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING. IN  
FACT, MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO REMAINING LOPSIDED, AND  
THEN OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON A  
COMBINATION OF THE MODELS AND THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY, THE NHC  
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD, AND NOW SHOWS  
DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY DAY 4.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 14/1500Z 18.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH  
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH  
48H 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH  
60H 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH  
72H 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH  
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
 
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