717  
WTNT43 KNHC 281440  
TCDAT3  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PABLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019  
1100 AM AST MON OCT 28 2019  
 
COLD WATERS OF 16C AND INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED THE DEEP CONVECTION  
NEAR PABLO'S CENTER TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THE  
CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS. THIS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED PABLO TO NOW  
BECOME POST-TROPICAL. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 30 TO  
35 KT WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF PABLO, AND THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON THOSE DATA. IN ADDITION, THE  
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A MUCH LARGER AREA OF GALE-FORCE  
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF, BUT NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH  
PABLO.  
 
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER  
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER  
MID-LATITUDE LOW TO ITS WEST. THE GALES OCCURRING NORTH OF THE  
PABLO ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED.  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN:  
 
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50  
LFPW AND ON THE WEB AT  
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/  
METAREA2.  
 
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER  
FQNT21 EGRR AND ON THE WEB AT  
METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/SPECIALIST-FORECASTS/COAST-AND-SEA/HIGH-  
SEAS-FORECAST/.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER LATTO  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page