913  
WTNT43 KNHC 132036  
TCDAT3  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018  
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
AFTER A TOTAL OF 70 ADVISORIES, LONG-LIVED LESLIE HAS BECOME  
POST-TROPICAL JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL, FINALLY SUCCUMBING  
TO THE COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND  
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF  
THE CYCLONE HAS MOISTENED UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH FARO, PORTUGAL,  
REPORTING A DEWPOINT OF 70F/21C, BUT THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN PORTUGAL AHEAD OF LESLIE ARE ONLY IN THE LOW-60F RANGE,  
WHICH IS NOT INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS. THUS, THE CYCLONE IS  
NOW A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EVEN HAS A  
PARTIAL EYE NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT 2000Z PORTUGUESE COMPOSITE  
RADAR IMAGERY. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND  
LESLIE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER  
OR JUST NORTH OF SPAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.  
 
LESLIE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050/30 KT.  
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST NORTHEASTWARD  
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR OR JUST  
SOUTH OF PORTO, PORTUGAL BY 14/0000Z. THIS FORECAST MOTION IS  
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST TRACK MODEL  
GUIDANCE.  
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN ARE HANDLING  
HAZARDS INFORMATION FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES VIA LOCAL WEATHER  
PRODUCTS. THIS IS THE LAST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) ADVISORY  
ON THIS SYSTEM.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BRING NEAR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO  
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL LATER TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL  
CYCLONE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF  
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
2. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25 TO 75 MM (1  
TO 3 INCHES) WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 125 MM (5 INCHES)  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
3. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LESLIE, INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD  
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND  
ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO  
PRODUCTS FROM THE STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND  
24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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