307
WTNT43 KNHC 102032
TCDAT3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
300 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2024
THE LIMITED CONVECTION THAT RAFAEL WAS PRODUCING IN ITS EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS COLLAPSED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES, AND A 1530Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOW THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND VERY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH
DIRECTION. SINCE RAFAEL DOES NOT POSSESS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IT NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON RAFAEL.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT, THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
THE ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
COAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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