333  
WTNT43 KNHC 091442  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022  
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 09 2022  
 
JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA WITH A  
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE  
CENTER. THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA IS NOT AS  
RUGGED AS AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND JULIA IS  
PROBABLY ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WHILE IT CROSSES LAND. BASED ON  
A TYPICAL DECAY RATE, AND INTERPOLATING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,  
JULIA IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.  
 
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PROPEL THE  
STORM QUICKLY WESTWARD (270 DEGREES) AT ABOUT 13 KT, AND THAT  
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY, WITH JULIA'S CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT AND  
MONDAY, JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND  
MOVE VERY CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COASTS OF HONDURAS,  
EL SALVADOR, AND GUATEMALA. THE MODEL TRACKERS LOSE JULIA IN A DAY  
OR TWO AND INSTEAD SHOW A POTENTIAL TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE BY  
KEYING IN ON A BROADER CIRCULATION FARTHER WEST THAT IS ASSOCIATED  
WITH AN ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. HOWEVER,  
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS, IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND ECWMF, SHOW JULIA'S  
SMALLER CIRCULATION MORE CLOSELY HUGGING THE PACIFIC COAST OF  
CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST MORE CLOSELY  
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.  
 
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE JULIA CONTINUES MOVING  
OVER LAND, BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE AT TROPICAL STORM  
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. IN KEEPING WITH THE  
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, JULIA'S CONTRACTING CIRCULATION IS  
FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS, COINCIDENT WITH  
AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, JULIA  
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY AND THEN  
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE MOVING CLOSE TO THE COAST OF  
GUATEMALA.  
 
REGARDLESS OF JULIA'S TRACK AND FUTURE STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,  
THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS OVER  
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH COULD  
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  
 
SINCE JULIA'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE ITS  
PASSAGE ACROSS NICARAGUA, THE CYCLONE WILL RETAIN THE SAME NAME  
WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THE INTERMEDIATE  
ADVISORY AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME  
ATLANTIC PRODUCT HEADERS AS BEFORE. HOWEVER, NOW THAT ALL COASTAL  
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL  
AMERICA, PRODUCT HEADERS WILL CHANGE TO EASTERN PACIFIC HEADERS  
BEGINNING WITH THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),  
WITH THE ATCF IDENTIFIER CHANGING FROM AL132022 TO EP182022.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. JULIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES  
ACROSS NICARAGUA TODAY AND REACHES THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS  
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE  
PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA, HONDURAS, AND EL SALVADOR TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THOSE AREAS  
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL-FORCE-WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
ON MONDAY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA, WHERE A TROPICAL  
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.  
 
2. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS  
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO EARLY THIS  
WEEK.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND  
12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER  
24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH  
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
 
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