670  
WTNT43 KNHC 271448  
TCDAT3  
 
HURRICANE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025  
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025  
 
MELISSA HAS THE CLASSIC STRONG HURRICANE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE  
IMAGERY THIS MORNING, WITH A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED  
IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THE  
HURRICANE ALSO HAS A LARGE COMPLEX OF OUTER BANDING OVER THE  
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A CIRCULATION THAT COVERS MOST OF THE  
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 70 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND  
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL  
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB, WITH BOTH AIRCRAFT RELEASING  
DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL  
INTENSITY OF 145 KT. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM EARLY AFTER  
EXPERIENCING SEVERE TURBULENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL.  
 
THE EYE IS WOBBLING AROUND DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION, BUT THE BEST  
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
NORTH OF MELISSA IS WEAKENING AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH  
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD  
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 H OR SO AT  
A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 24 H, MELISSA SHOULD TURN  
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE  
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING  
MECHANISM. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MELISSA WILL  
BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY, CROSS  
EASTERN CUBA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MOVE NEAR  
OR OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER  
THAT, THE CYCLONE COULD REACH THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY  
NIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE  
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS, THE  
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H  
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT MELISSA WILL START AN EYEWALL  
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO WEAKEN MELISSA  
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THERE IS NO PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE IN MELISSA  
MAKING LANDFALL IN JAMAICA AT CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY, SINCE BOTH  
CATEGORIES PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE. AFTER REACHING JAMAICA,  
A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR  
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING, ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS STILL FORECAST TO  
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES CUBA. ONCE OVER THE ATLANTIC,  
STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING, AND MELISSA  
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE  
PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. JAMAICA: DO NOT VENTURE OUT OF YOUR SAFE SHELTER. CATASTROPHIC  
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND NUMEROUS LANDSLIDES ARE  
LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CATASTROPHIC WINDS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE  
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE TOTAL STRUCTURAL FAILURE ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER  
ELEVATION AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE, LONG-LASTING POWER AND  
COMMUNICATION OUTAGES, AND ISOLATED COMMUNITIES. LIFE-THREATENING  
STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
2. HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: CATASTROPHIC AND  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN HAITI, EXTENSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND  
ISOLATION OF COMMUNITIES IS LIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
3. EASTERN CUBA: HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING AND  
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IS EXPECTED  
BEGINNING TODAY. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE  
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  
 
4. SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS: HURRICANE CONDITIONS,  
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON  
WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS  
AND BE SURE TO HAVE PREPARATIONS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH  
12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH  
24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH  
36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH  
48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH  
60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH  
72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH  
96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH  
120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
 
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