337  
WTNT44 KNHC 250242  
TCDAT4  
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021  
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2021  
 
TERESA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED, EVEN FOR A  
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IS RATHER RAGGED IN  
APPEARANCE, AND SITUATED 100 N MI OR MORE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST  
OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE,  
40 KT, IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBTROPICAL  
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, BUT GIVEN THE DISHEVELED  
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  
 
TERESA HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD, ON  
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, AND THE  
CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/9 KT. DURING THE  
NEXT DAY OR SO, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND  
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT WILL  
BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC  
CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS  
ONE, BUT ALONG THE SAME GENERAL TRAJECTORY. THE HCCA MODEL  
CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE NHC PREDICTION.  
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS  
KEPT THE VERTICAL SHEAR FAIRLY LOW THUS FAR. HOWEVER, AS THIS LOW  
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, TERESA WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE  
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND NO STRENGTHENING IS  
EXPECTED. IN 48 HOURS OR SO, BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS, THE STORM  
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH  
24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH  
48H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
 
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