519
WTNT44 KNHC 281446
TCDAT4
REMNANTS OF DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2026
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CENTER OF DOLLY PASSED JUST NORTH OF
NOAA BUOY 41041, WHICH DID NOT OBSERVE ANY WESTERLY WINDS.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DOES NOT
READILY INDICATE ANY WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS, DOLLY HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE, WITH THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST POSITIONS BEING THAT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT, WITH THOSE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
VORTICITY CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 280/22 KT, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 H. AFTER THAT TIME, A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD
TAKE THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY, AND NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT, WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
ANTILLES OR THE BAHAMAS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND THE REMNANTS SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 24 H OF POINTS
WHERE THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER. AFTER THAT, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BELOW 35 KT, AND THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS WELL-DEFINED. SOME GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
DOLLY COULD REGENERATE IN SEVERAL DAYS, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS MIGHT OCCUR. SHOULD CONDITIONS
WARRANT, FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY WILL BE PROVIDED IN SUBSEQUENT TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLLY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0000Z 15.6N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/1200Z 16.4N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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