235  
WTNT44 KNHC 120848  
TCDAT4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018  
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2018  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MICHAEL HAS  
BECOME A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE COAST  
OF THE UNITED STATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO  
55 KT BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND SOME ADDITIONAL  
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H. AFTER  
THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND IT IS FORECAST  
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 H. THE REVISED  
INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECAST ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE GUIDANCE FROM  
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/25. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE VERY RAPIDLY  
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION NEAR  
THE END OF THE CYCLONE'S LIFE.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE  
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND AVAILABLE  
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.SHTML.  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMAINING IMPACTS OVER THE UNITED  
STATES CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING FROM  
EASTERN NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE HIGH WATER,  
FLOODING, AND FLASH FLOODING MAY PERSIST TODAY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL  
VERY RECENTLY IN THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  
 
2. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA, THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND  
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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