679  
WTNT44 KNHC 150847  
TCDAT4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022  
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2022  
 
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY LOW MID-LEVEL  
HUMIDITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A TOLL ON KARL. SATELLITE DATA  
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT  
PRODUCED ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND MIDDAY  
YESTERDAY, AND IT IS VERY UNLIKELY ANY WILL RETURN THIS MORNING.  
THEREFORE, KARL HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST  
NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE RADAR IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A  
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
WELL SOUTH OF KARL'S CENTER THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO UPSLOPE  
FLOW AGAINST THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN  
THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS  
BEEN NOTED IN THE GOES LIGHTNING MAPPER (GLM) DATA OVERNIGHT.  
KARL'S REMNANTS COULD STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES  
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND  
OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE GLOBAL MODELS  
INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN TODAY,  
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE BY TONIGHT WHEN IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT, AND A  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL  
DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE  
CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS  
MORNING, AND INLAND BY LATER TODAY.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS  
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KARL COULD  
PRODUCE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF  
HIGHER TERRAIN, ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERACRUZ, TABASCO, CHIAPAS AND  
OAXACA STATES IN MEXICO.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
 
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