483  
WTNT45 KNHC 112033  
TCDAT5  
 
REMNANTS OF JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025  
500 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
A COMBINATION OF SCATTEROMETER DATA, GOES-EAST DERIVED MOTION  
WINDS, AND A RECENT GPM MICROWAVE PASS SEEMS TO CONFIRM THAT JERRY  
DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A  
TROUGH WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE  
AXIS. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS  
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA  
FROM THIS MORNING.  
 
THE ROUGH MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD, OR 360/14 KT. THE REMNANT  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD, WITH  
THE EUROPEAN, CANADIAN, AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING IT MERGING WITH A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTH IN 24-36 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE  
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH UNTIL IT  
MERGES WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REMNANTS AS A  
DISTINCT FEATURE, BUT GIVEN THAT ITS INITIAL POSITION OF THE  
REMNANTS IS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT IS STILL CONSIDERED AN  
OUTLIER SOLUTION.  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS  
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS  
HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
 
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