645  
WTNT45 KNHC 100855  
TCDAT5  
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025  
500 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
JERRY IS STILL A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN  
REMAINS SHEARED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RECENT  
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE BECOMING ELONGATED, AND  
DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY RISING  
DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION. THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER  
ORGANIZED SINCE THAT TIME, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT  
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT WIND DATA AND MORE RECENT  
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JERRY IS  
PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, RADAR DATA SHOW THAT HEAVY  
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, LEADING TO AN  
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE  
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JERRY.  
 
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST (315/15 KT), BUT A  
NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AS JERRY MOVES ALONG THE  
WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE  
ISLANDS. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
KEEPING THE CENTER OF JERRY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ON  
SUNDAY. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON  
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC  
PREDICTION, WHICH LIES NEAR HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND MEAN. BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, JERRY IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND  
EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PART OF THE TRACK  
FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS GREATER SPREAD IS NOTED IN THE MODELS  
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY JERRY BECOMES CAPTURED WITHIN THIS FLOW.  
DURING THIS PERIOD, THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY  
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, FOLLOWING THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL  
CONSENSUS TRENDS.  
 
JERRY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DEVELOP A MORE COHERENT STRUCTURE OVER THE  
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR  
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE AND THE CONTINUED SHEAR,  
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. IN FACT, THE  
LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, AND SOME MODELS  
SUGGEST JERRY MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL GOING FORWARD. SINCE THERE  
ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS THAT THE SHEAR  
COULD LESSEN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST SHOWS  
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING, BUT JERRY IS NO LONGER PREDICTED TO  
BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE HIGH END OF THE  
GUIDANCE, SO FUTURE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY IF  
JERRY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,  
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH  
TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN  
AREAS AND IN STEEP TERRAIN.  
 
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN GUSTS, COULD STILL AFFECT  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS JERRY MOVES AWAY  
FROM THE AREA.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH  
36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH  
48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH  
60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH  
72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH  
96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH  
120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH  
 
 
FORECASTER REINHART  
 
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