397
WTNT45 KNHC 222038
TCDAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026
500 PM AST THU OCT 22 2026
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF JOSEPHINE NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A
WARM FRONTAL BAND, WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL-CYCLONE LIKE
CURVATURE. IN ADDITION, THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND COLD-AIR CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND THE EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, JOSEPHINE
HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT, AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055/15 KT.
JOSEPHINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD TURN AS IT
BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THIS EVENING AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS AGAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TONIGHT
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES, WITH WINDS REACHING
HURRICANE FORCE. AFTER TONIGHT THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN, AND THEY
FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO DISSIPATE BY 72 H AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A NEW
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED MAINLY ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AND AGAIN HAS ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE LAST FORECAST. THE WIND RADII FORECASTS
HAVE ALSO BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOSEPHINE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND
ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP
PLEASE ALSO SEE PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
EFFECTS OF JOSEPHINE IN COASTAL AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/0600Z 41.3N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/1800Z 42.9N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0600Z 43.5N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 43.8N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 43.6N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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