637  
WTNT45 KNHC 092042  
TCDAT5  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021  
500 PM AST FRI JUL 09 2021  
 
SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT ELSA'S DEEP  
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A SHIELD NORTH OF ITS CENTER AND THAT  
A FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. FOR THOSE  
REASONS, ELSA WAS DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 1800 UTC.  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 40 KT WERE  
REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE NEARBY  
WATERS AS ELSA CROSSED THE STATE, SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS  
45 KT.  
 
ELSA IS MOVING QUICKLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH  
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/27 KT. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD  
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS  
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS  
MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT ELSA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE  
GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THE CYCLONE WILL OPEN  
INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 H OR SO, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN  
THE NHC FORECAST.  
 
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT CENTER OF ELSA MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF  
LONG ISLAND NEAR SOUTHAMPTON AROUND 1430 UTC (10:30 AM EDT), AND  
AGAIN NEAR WATCH HILL, RHODE ISLAND NEAR 1615 UTC (12:15 PM EDT).  
ELSA'S CLASSIFICATION AT THE TIME THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST WILL  
BE DETERMINED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED  
THAT THE LANDFALL POSITION HAD LITTLE BEARING ON THE LOCATION OR  
TIMING OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH WERE WELL REMOVED  
FROM THE CYCLONE'S CENTER.  
 
SINCE ELSA IS NOW POST-TROPICAL AND ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM  
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED, THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY.  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS  
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS  
HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. AS ELSA MOVES OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING, HEAVY  
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.  
 
2. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL  
CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF  
ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER ZELINSKY  
 
 
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