227  
WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA  
TCDAT5  
 
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37...CORRECTED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025  
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
CORRECTED EYE DROPSONDE WIND TO 19 KT AND MINIMUM PRESSURE TO 941 MB  
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE  
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED WITH PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL  
WINDS OF 115 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. USING A REDUCTION  
FACTOR SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN THAT WHICH WOULD BE USED FOR EYEWALL  
WINDS, THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A DROPSONDE  
IN THE EYE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 943 MB WITH 19 KT WINDS  
SO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AN ESTIMATED 941 MB.  
THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS  
MORNING WITH A SYMMETRIC-LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN AND NUMEROUS BANDING  
FEATURES. THE EYE HAS AGAIN BECOME EVIDENT ON THE IMAGERY AND  
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS.  
 
ERIN'S IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF  
350/11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK  
FORECAST GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ERIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB HIGH, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT  
ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THEN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD  
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE MOVING WITHIN  
THE SOUTHERN BELT OF THE THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL  
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
WITH THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS.  
 
ERIN STILL HAS A RATHER BROAD INNER CORE BUT THE EYEWALL APPEARS TO  
BE REFORMING. THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST  
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS  
CURRENTLY LIGHT, THE SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN  
SHEAR IN 12-24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE HURRICANE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  
STRENGTHEN SOME MORE IN THE SHORT TERM, PARTICULARLY IF THE INNER  
CORE BECOMES EVEN BETTER DEFINED. BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND, WESTERLY  
SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY HIGH, SO A WEAKENING  
TREND IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE LATER ON THURSDAY. SIMULATED SATELLITE  
IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ERIN WILL BECOME AN  
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.  
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES  
IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE  
RISK OF THOSE WINDS OCCURRING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FORECAST WIND  
FIELD OF ERIN IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER THAN AVERAGE COMPARED TO THE  
WIND FIELD USED TO DERIVE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP  
CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF  
THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
BEACHGOERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS,  
LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.  
 
2. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BEGINNING LATER TODAY. THE  
STORM SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES, LEADING TO  
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH, MAKING SOME ROADS  
IMPASSIBLE.  
 
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE  
VIRGINIA COAST. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY ALONG  
PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND COASTS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  
 
4. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH  
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH  
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH  
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH  
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH  
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH  
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH  
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
 
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