357  
WTPZ32 KNHC 161752  
TCPEP2  
 
BULLETIN  
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172019  
100 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
...DISTURBANCE NOW UNLIKELY TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS TO  
THE COAST OF MEXICO...   
..RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...16.6N 96.6W  
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO  
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES  
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH  
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  
----------------------  
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE  
NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  
WHILE THE CHANCES THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL  
CYCLONE ARE DECREASING, THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP IF THE CENTER CAN RE-FORM ALONG  
THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
RAINFALL: THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO  
FROM CHIAPAS TO JALISCO, AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.  
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN MEXICO.  
RAINFALL IN BOTH GUATEMALA AND MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING  
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
WIND: A FEW WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR ALONG  
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY.  
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM  
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE  
ONGOING RAINFALL THREAT.  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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