736
WTPZ35 KNHC 072039
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 PM CST WED OCT 07 2026
..DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM SIMON
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SIMON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BY LATE THURSDAY. IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLIMA
AND MICHOACAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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