095  
WTPZ41 KNHC 040235  
TCDEP1  
 
HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018  
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018  
 
NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT  
THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THEY WERE EARLIER  
TODAY, AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME DURING THE PAST FEW  
HOURS. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED, AND A BLEND OF  
THE LATEST ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80  
KT.  
 
NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 18 KT STEERED BY A  
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL  
HEADING, BUT WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE NORMAN NEARS THE EDGE OF  
THE RIDGE. THEREAFTER, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN  
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WHILE NORMAN MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND  
TOWARD A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THERE  
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN NORMAN MAKES THE  
TURN, BUT THE GUIDANCE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERALL THIS CYCLE.  
THEREFORE, ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,  
AND THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
NORMAN COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY, BUT THE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY FLATTENING OUT IN THE 24- TO 48-HOUR  
TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME, HOWEVER, A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR,  
COOLER WATERS, AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT  
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE  
PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
NOW THAT NORMAN HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN, FUTURE  
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC  
HURRICANE CENTER. THESE FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT  
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 04/0300Z 19.8N 140.2W 80 KT 90 MPH  
12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W 75 KT 85 MPH  
24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W 70 KT 80 MPH  
36H 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH  
48H 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W 70 KT 80 MPH  
72H 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W 65 KT 75 MPH  
96H 08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W 50 KT 60 MPH  
120H 09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W 35 KT 40 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
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