405
WTPZ41 KNHC 212038
TCDEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2022
ESTELLE HAS NOT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN
AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECASTS FROM GLOBAL MODELS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. THE UPDATED
PREDICTION REFLECTS THIS SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR A LITTLE NORTH OF WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 22.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 22.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 22.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 23.1N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 23.3N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
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