433
WTPZ41 KNHC 061036
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 05 2025
KIKO HAS HELD STEADY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY, MAINTAINING ITS CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND IS MOSTLY
SURROUNDED BY A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LIGHT GRAY SHADE ON THE DVORAK BD
CURVE, WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EVEN STRONGER PATTERN WHEN A
NEARLY SUFFICIENTLY LARGE BLACK SHADE SURROUNDS THE EYE. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES VARIED, WITH TAFB AT
6.5/127 KT, AND SAB AND HFO BOTH AT 6.0/115 KT. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED BETWEEN 115 AND 122 KT. BLENDING THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DATA SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 120 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
KIKO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT,
AND WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THE
CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE’S WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK (DAYS 3 TO 5), IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, KEEPING
THE CENTER NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND BETWEEN THAT SOLUTION AND THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE TRAVERSING WATERS NEAR 26 C AND UNDER MINIMAL SHEAR.
ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RESIST WEAKENING
LONGER THAN TYPICALLY OBSERVED, EVEN AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, KIKO WILL ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STEADILY INCREASING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING AT A MORE
RAPID RATE AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS KIKO ABOVE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS AIDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON KIKO CAN BE FOUND UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
HEADERS BEGINNING AT 500 AM HST. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA44 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON THE
WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. KIKO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
2. SWELLS GENERATED BY KIKO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK ALONG EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LISTEN FOR LATER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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