122
WTPZ41 KNHC 260848
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
BEGUN TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION, RESULTING IN THE EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS EROSION
OF PORTIONS OF THE EYEWALL. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T4.5/77 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 75 TO 85 KT. GIVEN THE
RECENT DEGRADATION IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FAUSTO ON
SUNDAY. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN
SUBSEQUENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11 KT AS FAUSTO MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 H, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER AS FAUSTO PASSES NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA).
FAUSTO HAS LIKELY BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INCREASE BEGINNING IN AROUND 24 H. SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION, WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
GRADUALLY ERODING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE TIME
FAUSTO MOVES NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IT IS FORECAST TO BE A
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BASED ON THE PREDICTED SHEARED NATURE OF THE STORM, THE RISK OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-FORCE-WINDS ON LAND SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS LONG AS
THE FORECAST TRACK STAYS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN HAWAII
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS, INTERESTS ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAUSTO.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SWELLS GENERATED BY FAUSTO WILL REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE, PRODUCING
INCREASING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
FAUSTO APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 19.7N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 21.0N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.5N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 22.0N 151.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 22.6N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.9N 159.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 25.5N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE/EVANS
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