206
WTPZ41 KNHC 070236
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
500 PM HST SAT JUN 06 2026
AMANDA IS QUICKLY ON THE PATH TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SPORADIC AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ADDITIONALLY, THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-CLOUD SWIRL.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NORTH OF
THE CENTER, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, OR 215/3 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, DESPITE
THE WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREES IN SHOWING ONLY
OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST, AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 12.1N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.7N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 11.3N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z 11.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 10.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/1200Z 10.5N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 10.2N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 9.7N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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