613
WTPZ41 KNHC 200234
TCDEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
800 PM MST MON OCT 19 2026
TRUDY'S CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY VANISHED OVER THE LAST 6-9 HOURS. IN
FACT, THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALL DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING ONLY A WEAK REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. AS A RESULT,
TRUDY NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THIS
IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KT ASSUMING ADDITIONAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
FROM EARLIER TODAY.
THE VORTEX OF TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE FURTHER AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PULSES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED
AND INSUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES IN THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TRUDY, PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB
AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 19.5N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0000Z 19.4N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 19.6N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN
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