300
WTPZ41 KNHC 041445
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEPICTS KARINA'S
NORTHWEST QUADRANT DEGRADING AS DRY AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE SYSTEM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED SLIGHTLY, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ACROSS KARINA'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS 5.0/90 KT,
WITH OBJECTIVE RATINGS FROM CIMSS BETWEEN 75-82 KT. BASED ON
KARINA'S DEGRADING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 280/9 KT. KARINA MOVED MORE WESTWARD
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, KARINA IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS
AN ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO HOW KARINA WILL REACT TO LOWELL ONCE
THE TWO APPROACH EACH OTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERALLY EXHIBITS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED LEFTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
LIGHT OF KARINA'S MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION, BUT AFTER 24 H,
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK FROM THE LAST ADVISORY WERE MINIMAL.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SHIPS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT KARINA IN A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS KARINA
MAKES ITS MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS FORECAST. THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND GENERALLY FALLS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
KARINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.
NOW THAT KARINA IS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS HURRICANE CAN BE FOUND UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS
BEGINNING WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST. FUTURE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP5 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA45 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON
THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 20.4N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS
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