038
WTPZ41 KNHC 311437
TCDEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
800 AM MST SAT MAY 31 2025
COOL WATERS, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON ALVIN. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS, AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A
POSSIBLY GENEROUS 30 KT. CONTINUED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY RETURN OF DEEP CONVECTION,
AND THEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM AS IT
HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.
THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ALVIN ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CREATING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page