124  
WTPZ42 KNHC 050900  
TCDEP2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025  
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2025  
 
LORENA HAS NOT PRODUCED ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR THE  
LAST 18 H, AND SINCE THE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 24-25C THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT CONVECTION  
WILL RE-DEVELOP. WHILE THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES MISSED  
THE CENTER, SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE QUICKLY DECREASING AND  
ARE NOW IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS, LORENA HAS  
DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KT. THE SYSTEM  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER, WITH DISSIPATION  
FORECAST BY 72 H.  
 
LORENA HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. TRACK MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD FOR  
THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST  
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A  
LITTLE SOUTH OF, THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  
 
WHILE LORENA IS NOW A REMNANT LOW, THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT  
CONTINUES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD AWAY  
FROM LORENA, AND A SURFACE TROUGH SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER  
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN LORETO AND GUYMAS IS TRIGGERING A  
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND  
FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA  
SUR, AND THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY, AND  
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LORENA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE  
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER  
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP  
 
RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH  
FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP  
 
FOR RAINFALL FORECASTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS  
FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH LORENA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT  
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES  
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO.  
 
2. MOISTURE FROM LORENA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS  
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ARIZONA  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 
3. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT  
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TODAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
12H 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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