722  
WTPZ42 KNHC 120233  
TCDEP2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025  
800 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
RAYMOND HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND  
HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW. BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT  
DATA AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA  
SUR, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KT.  
 
THE REMNANT LOW OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR  
330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING LOW SHOULD MOVE  
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS  
EVENING. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW  
OF RAYMOND DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS  
REASONABLE, GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTION.  
AN HOUR 12 FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED HERE FOR CONTINUITY.  
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF RAYMOND WON'T SURVIVE BEYOND SUNDAY  
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE  
FROM RAYMOND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN  
FLASH FLOODING, INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 12/0300Z 22.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 12/1200Z 25.3N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER HAGEN  
 
 
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