722
WTPZ42 KNHC 120233
TCDEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
800 PM MST SAT OCT 11 2025
RAYMOND HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND
HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW. BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT
DATA AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KT.
THE REMNANT LOW OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING LOW SHOULD MOVE
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW
OF RAYMOND DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE, GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTION.
AN HOUR 12 FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED HERE FOR CONTINUITY.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF RAYMOND WON'T SURVIVE BEYOND SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER ENVELOPE
FROM RAYMOND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING, INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 22.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/1200Z 25.3N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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