364
WTPZ42 KNHC 031432
TCDEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 AM HST SUN AUG 03 2025
COOL WATERS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON GIL. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45
KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN THE COOL
WATERS, DRY AND STABLE AIR, AND STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, NO NEW ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM AS IT HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL.
GIL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND MIDWEEK AS IT OPENS INTO A
TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16 KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0000Z 21.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 21.7N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 21.9N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 22.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 22.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 22.8N 151.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page