774  
WTPZ42 KNHC 052043  
TCDEP2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022  
300 PM MDT WED OCT 05 2022  
 
PAINE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT  
18 HOURS, AND IT NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION  
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL.  
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT, WHICH IS BASED ON  
RECENT ASCAT DATA. STRONG SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT  
DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT LOW  
WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  
 
NOW THAT PAINE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW, IT HAS TURNED  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD  
MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION  
OCCURS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD  
AND IT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY ON PAINE. FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER  
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT  
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
12H 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
 
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