932  
WTPZ42 KNHC 170233  
TCDEP2  
 
REMNANTS OF TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018  
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
DATA FROM SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES, LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE  
IMAGERY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT TARA NO  
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF  
THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARED TO MOVE INLAND EARLIER THIS  
EVENING, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE SURFACE CENTER MADE IT  
THAT FAR. REGARDLESS, THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS CAUSED THE  
SURFACE CIRCULATION TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND  
DISSIPATE. THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON TARA. ALTHOUGH THE  
REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE  
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT, CONTINUED CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD  
PREVENT IT FROM REORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND ALL OF THE  
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN OVER  
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  
 
ALTHOUGH TARA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, ITS REMNANTS  
COULD STILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF  
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND  
MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA  
12H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER ZELINSKY  
 
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