093
WTPZ42 KNHC 201436
TCDEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022
900 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2022
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BLAS HAS BEEN UNABLE
TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER FOR ALMOST 24
H. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SPORADIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED
TO ITS NORTH THIS MORNING, THIS IS NOT DEEMED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ITS
STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO
A REMNANT LOW, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON BLAS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 275/4 KT, AND IT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page