472
WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182025
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE CENTER OF SONIA HAS BECOME EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
DECREASING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
LOWER WINDS (30-35 KT) WITHIN THE CIRCULATION THAN THE OVERNIGHT
PASS, AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE ALSO DECREASING.
THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT.
SONIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS COOLER SSTS. FURTHER SLOW
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD DUE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SONIA HAS PRODUCED ITS
LAST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BURST, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN IN
12 HOURS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE CONSENSUS/CORRECTED-CONSENSUS
AIDS. THE CIRCULATION IS STILL FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS
SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.4N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 15.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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