266
WTPZ43 KNHC 061446
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 06 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT RACHEL'S INNER CORE HAS
DEGRADED, WITH THE SYSTEM NOW FEATURING A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. THE
DEEPEST COLD CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 77 AND 82 KT. BASED
ON THESE SATELLITE TRENDS AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 275/7 KT. A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. IN
A FEW DAYS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO SLOW DOWN, MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND AIDS.
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON RACHEL,
WITH A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO
COOL BELOW 26C IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. SIMULATED INFRARED IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWS RACHEL STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP, ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST NHC FORECAST NOW INDICATES THAT
RACHEL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 96 H. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE SHORT
TERM, AND THEN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.0N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.8N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 27.7N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KELLY
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