532  
WTPZ43 KNHC 191457  
TCDEP3  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018  
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
 
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED LATE YESTERDAY WITHIN A  
SPRAWLING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL  
AMERICA WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS SOUTH OF MEXICO.  
THE EASTERNMOST LOW SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS SMALL AND HAS SPUN UP  
QUICKLY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF  
CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE DATA, FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES, AND  
VALUABLE RADAR DATA FROM GUATEMALA ALSO SHOW A TIGHT CORE AND  
INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 30 KT,  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE LAST EVENING'S ASCAT PASS AND A T1.5 DVORAK  
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S WELL-DEVELOPED  
STRUCTURE.  
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)  
AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT  
FURTHER STRENGTHENING, AND THE DEPRESSION'S SMALL SIZE MAY ALLOW FOR  
INTENSIFICATION HIGHER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY  
MODELS. FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR  
THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEVELS OFF THE MAXIMUM  
WINDS IN 3-5 DAYS WHEN THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.  
 
SINCE THE LOW FORMED RECENTLY, THE DEPRESSION'S CURRENT MOTION IS  
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT IT HASN'T MOVED  
MUCH SINCE LAST EVENING, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/2 KT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING  
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE  
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. AFTER DAY 3,  
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT EASTWARD A BIT, AND THE CYCLONE  
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ANOTHER  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT ON  
HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM COULD GET TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND  
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS  
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE IT GETS  
TO THE COAST, HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING, IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND  
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 19/1500Z 13.3N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH  
24H 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH  
48H 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH  
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH  
96H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH  
120H 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
 
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