425
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019
DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT RETURNED, NOW BEING ABSENT FOR AT LEAST 12
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND OCTAVE IS DRY AND STABLE, AND IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL COME BACK ANY TIME SOON.
OCTAVE HAS THEREFORE BECOME A REMNANT LOW, AND ITS MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH
ITS INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY OR DECREASING DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30-40
PERCENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS VERY SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 070/2
KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING REGIME, AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONLY MOVING A NET
DISTANCE OF 50-100 N MI DURING THAT PERIOD. A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THIS LAST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF, WHICH LIES
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BERG
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