908
WTPZ43 KNHC 080845
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2025
HENRIETTE’S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE THIS
EVENING, HAVING LOST NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FULLY EXPOSED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T2.5/35 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 26 TO 34 KT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A TIMELY 08/0534Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED QUITE A FEW 30 TO 33 KT WIND BARBS AND THIS WAS THE BASIS
FOR HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY STEADY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTHEAST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HENRIETTE BECOMES STEERED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
HENRIETTE WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII.
HENRIETTE WILL TRAVERSE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C WITH
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 50 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. DESPITE THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THE
CYCLONE’S WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
RESILIENT WITHIN THE PREVAILING LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FOR
OCCASIONAL PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. AS A RESULT,
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IF HENRIETTE CAN WITHSTAND THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER COOLER WATERS, AS
CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGAIN WITH THE
00Z CYCLE, RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE TO
LEVELS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT INTENSIFICATION, BRINGING HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
BY 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HIGHER LATITUDES, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER RAPID WEAKENING BEGINNING BETWEEN 96 AND 120
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE CTCI AND HMNI
INTENSITY AIDS, BUT BELOW THE PEAK DEPICTED BY THE HAFS MODELS.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON HENRIETTE CAN BE FOUND UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN HEADERS BEGINNING AT 500 AM HST. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA43 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON THE
WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 140.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.9N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.3N 149.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.9N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 31.1N 159.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 35.8N 163.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page