251
WTPZ44 KNHC 141434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
900 AM CST SAT JUN 14 2025
DALILA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BURSTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE RANGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THIS MORNING FROM 45 TO
65 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A SCATTEROMETER PASS
IS SCHEDULED OVER THE SYSTEM AROUND 16Z, WHICH MAY GIVE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF SURFACE WINDS.
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 305/10
KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DALILA TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO A SHALLOWER VORTEX
ON SUNDAY, DALILA WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FLOW. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES
NEAR THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
DALILA MAY BE NEARING PEAK INTENSITY, WITH ONLY ABOUT 6 TO 12 H LEFT
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS, THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TODAY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK, DALILA WILL MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS TONIGHT AND
BEGIN TO ENTER A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING, AND EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE,
HOWEVER NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 48 H,
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. BY DAY 4, MODELS DEPICT THE
REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN AND GUERRERO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.
2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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