870  
WTPZ44 KNHC 060242  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 34  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023  
800 PM MST SUN NOV 05 2023  
 
AFTER THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF PILAR DECOUPLED THIS  
MORNING, THE SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR  
THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED OVER WARM SSTS,  
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVENT  
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM RETURNING. THEREFORE, PILAR HAS  
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN  
LOWERED TO 30 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE  
ESTIMATES, BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THE SYSTEM COULD STILL  
PRODUCE A FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,  
BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE GLOBAL MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DEGENERATE INTO A  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 2-3 DAYS, IF NOT SOONER.  
 
THEY CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. A  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE  
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE  
SYSTEM WEAKENS. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW, THE  
NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP  
BETWEEN THE SHALLOW TRAJECTORY AND BETA MODEL (TABS), AND THE GFS  
AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON PILAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER  
FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
 
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