329
WTPZ44 KNHC 030835
TCDEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 03 2026
DOUGLAS IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT PRODUCED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND ITS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED IN PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DUE
TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWED THE SYSTEM IS
STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND THE EXTENT OF THOSE WINDS WAS SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. SINCE DOUGLAS IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL LOW, THIS
WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT BASED
ON THE SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED THE CENTER OF DOUGLAS IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST (335/7 KT), BUT A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT, THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED TO THE LEFT, WHICH BRINGS IT
CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY SHEAR, INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
AND DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS, THE LOW IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 22.0N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 22.9N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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