831  
WTPZ44 KNHC 182033  
TCDEP4  
 
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018  
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
LANE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE  
IMAGERY. THE DISTINCT 15 NMI-WIDE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A RING  
OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUDS TOPS AROUND -65 TO -70C. THE CLOUDS  
TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK  
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT.  
A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE SHOULD KEEP THE  
HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD  
WESTWARD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE LANE ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE  
BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4, LANE WILL BE APPROACHING THE  
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK  
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LASTEST ITERATIONS OF THE UKMET  
AND GFS MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN  
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF REMAINS ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALSO DEPICTS A MUCH FASTER  
FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED  
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO BE NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.  
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS  
ADVISORY. LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY  
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE. AS A RESULT,  
GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR LATE IN THE  
FORECAST PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT DAYS  
4 AND 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE  
GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND THEN IS CLOSEST TO  
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  
 
LANE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN VERY SOON AND THIS IS  
LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LANE CAN BE  
FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER  
BEGINNING AT 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2, WMO  
HEADER WTPA32 PHFO, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC .  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH  
12H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH  
24H 19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH  
36H 20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W 105 KT 120 MPH  
48H 20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH  
72H 21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W 95 KT 110 MPH  
96H 22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W 70 KT 80 MPH  
120H 23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W 60 KT 70 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO  
 
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