424
WTPZ44 KNHC 270233
TCDEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
ISELLE CONTINUES TO HAVE NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL FULLY EXPOSED DUE TO DRY AIR
AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR. WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION OCCURING,
ISELLE IS NOW CONSIDERED TO HAVE BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX HAS 1.5/25 KT AND THE OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 25-43 KT. BASED ON
THAT DATA, THE CURRENT NHC INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 30 KT.
ISELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. INCREASING WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN
AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER, IT STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD SPIN DOWN EVEN SOONER. VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 23.0N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/1200Z 23.6N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/0000Z 24.3N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z 24.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 131.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN/PAPIN
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