344
WTPZ45 KNHC 090244
TCDEP5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2024
EMILIA HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SINCE THE PRIOR BURST WANED EARLIER THIS MORNING, ASIDE FROM A SMALL
PATCH OF -50 C CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE TAFB FINAL-T NUMBER IS DOWN TO 2.0/30-KT WHICH
WAS CONSTRAINED FROM GOING LOWER. WHILE THERE MIGHT CONTINUE TO BE
SOME OCCASIONAL PUFFS OF CONVECTION WITH EMILIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED THE 24 C ISOTHERM AND HEADING TOWARDS
EVEN COOLER OCEAN WATERS, AND THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE IS LOW. THUS, EMILIA IS BEING DECLARED A 30-KT
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS CYCLE, AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 290/10
KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN MORE WESTWARD BEYOND 36 H AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS. THE LATEST
FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING AFTER 72 H, A BIT
FASTER THAN BEFORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 22.3N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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