401
WTPZ45 KNHC 171438
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN THAT ELIDA'S STRUCTURE HAS
NOT IMPROVED BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DRY AIR IS STILL ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION, AND THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA, THE
INTENSITY OF ELIDA IS HELD AT 55 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON RECENT FIXES, ELIDA'S POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH A INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 300/9 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ELIDA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST, THUS THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE MODELS DO STILL HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AT DAYS 4
AND 5.
ELIDA HAS A VERY LIMITED TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, IF THE STRUCTURE CANNOT IMPROVE
QUICKLY, THEN THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO 65
KT WITH THIS ADVISORY. THIS DOES KEEP THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN-LINE
WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEING AROUND 36
HOURS DUE TO ELIDA MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF
INCREASING SHEAR. ELIDA COULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 16.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
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