469  
WTPZ45 KNHC 132040  
TCDEP5  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022  
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE  
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST 24  
HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF  
THE CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM HAS HAD SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED AND  
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT AND IS BASED ON  
A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND THE DVORAK  
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BE A RATHER  
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN  
AREA OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE  
FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A  
TROPICAL STORM, IT COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24  
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME FRAME, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED  
TO INCREASE AND LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.  
 
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT AROUND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,  
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD. AS THE VORTEX  
WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW, IT SHOULD SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED  
AND DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE  
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH  
24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH  
36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH  
48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN  
 
 
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