192  
WTPZ45 KNHC 060239  
TCDEP5  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 14  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018  
800 PM MST MON NOV 05 2018  
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW REMAINED ABSENT IN XAVIER FOR ABOUT TWELVE  
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, DRY  
MID-LEVELS, AND ONLY LUKEWARM WATERS TO BE ENCOUNTERED BY THE SYSTEM  
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PERSISTENT DEEP  
CONVECTION WILL MAKE A COMEBACK. THEREFORE, XAVIER IS NOW  
CONSIDERED TO BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST  
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
DESPITE THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS, XAVIER IS SHOWING A WELL-  
PRONOUNCED, THOUGH SMALL, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE LAST FEW  
VISIBLE IMAGES. PEAK WINDS IN THE SYSTEM ARE AROUND 40 KT, ASSUMING  
THAT SOME SPINDOWN HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE 45 KT OBSERVED FROM THE  
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SEVERAL HOURS AGO. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING  
IS VERY LIKELY AND XAVIER IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  
 
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND  
5 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST  
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION, UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF XAVIER.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, PLEASE SEE  
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER  
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT  
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
24H 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER LANDSEA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page