464
WTPZ45 KNHC 201435
TCDEP5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
ELIDA NO LONGER POSSESSES ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IT
HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. AS
ELIDA MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
ENCOUNTERS MORE DRIER AIR AND WIND SHEAR, THE REMAINING CIRCULATION
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT, BASED ON THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
FIX OF 2.5/35 KT.
ELIDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATED AT
345/10 KT. THIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND LIES NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH THE
CYCLONE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ELIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 26.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 28.5N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1200Z 31.1N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 33.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 37.7N 126.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ
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