236
FNAK71 PAFC 181658
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE GRANITE CREEK RX...SOA DFFP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
858 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 AKDT ON MAY 18.
DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
LOW IN THE BERING SEA SENDING MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SPECIFICALLY FOR THE LITTLE GRANITE CREEK BURN AREA, THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SITE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
WILL MOVE ARE THE BURN SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKELY
THAT THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BLOCK THE RAIN WITH ONLY SPRINKLES MAKING IT
TO THE BURN SITE. WINDS TUESDAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THEM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (313-5648 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........77 81 81 81 73 73 73 72 72
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20
TEMP............42 44 46 48 49 50 50 51 50
RH..............60 55 49 42 36 35 34 33 33
20 FT WIND DIR..W S S SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 6 6 7 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 8 8 8 14 14 14 12 12
VENT (M^2/S)....313 56485648564856485648564844404440
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 4 TO 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (360-4440 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72 67 67 67 52 52 52 42 42 42 49 49
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
TEMP............49 49 47 46 44 42 40 39 38 37 37 37
RH..............33 33 37 40 44 52 58 63 65 67 70 69
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW S S NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 7 6 2 2 2 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 8 8 3 3 3 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S SE SE E E NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5
VENT (M^2/S)....4440444044404440360 360 360 360 360 360 517 517
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
WEST 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 11
TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (517-3891 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........49 77 77 77 82 82 82 85 85 85 87 87
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20
TEMP............37 38 40 43 45 47 48 50 50 51 52 51
RH..............69 69 61 54 48 44 41 37 37 38 36 37
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE E SE S SW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 8 8 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.9 15 15 15 13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E SE SE SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 12 13 13 13
VENT (M^2/S)....517 517 517 517 34203420342034203420342038913891
FORECASTER...ZINGONE
REQUESTED BY...JERED KEMP
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613745.2/AER
.DELDT 05/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JERED.KEMP@ALASKA.GOV
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