721
FNAK71 PAFC 130401
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR NELCHINA GLACIER FIRE...SOA DOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
801 PM AKDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 AKDT ON JULY 12.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN TO WESTERLY
TONIGHT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES FOR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THEIR OCCURANCE IN THE VICINITY JUST TO THE NORTH
IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF GUSTS THROUGH THE NELCHINA GLACIER TERRAIN GAP
IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN THROUGH TAHNETA PASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN OVERALL FOR MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHALLENGE WITH THE WIND FORECAST
FOR MONDAY IS THAT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH TAHNETA PASS
AND THROUGH ANY SOUTHERLY TERRAIN GAPS AS A WEAK FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........40 40 28 28 28 57 57 57 72 72
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW FOG FOG
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............57 55 53 51 50 48 47 46 45 46
RH..............67 72 78 82 85 89 93 97 100 98
20 FT WIND DIR..S S W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 12 12 12 14 14 14 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........72 56 56 56 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 40
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG RNF RNF RNF RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............46 47 50 53 55 58 60 62 64 65 66 65
RH..............95 92 83 76 69 63 58 53 50 47 45 47
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 6 6 6 3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.12 8 8 8 5 5 5 6 6 6 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W E E E S S S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (35-55 PERCENT)
THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFT
WEST 12 TO 14 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........40 52 52 52 42 42 42 51 51 51 80 80
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
TEMP............64 63 60 58 56 54 51 49 49 48 48 48
RH..............50 53 59 66 73 78 84 90 91 91 91 91
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.9 15 15 15 18 18 18 18 18 18 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................8 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........80 65 65 65 89 89 89 74 74 74 90 90
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 40 40
TEMP............47 47 49 50 52 54 55 57 58 58 58 57
RH..............90 90 85 80 76 69 64 58 57 54 53 55
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8
FORECASTER...RUX
REQUESTED BY...TOBY STAPLETON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517468.5/AER
.DELDT 07/12/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DANIEL.WHITE@ALASKA.GOV,ANDY_JOHNSON@FIRENET.GOV,FIRENCOLORADO@GMAIL.COM,TOBY.STAPLETON@USDA.GOV,JERED.KEMP@ALASKA.GOV
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