430
FNAK71 PAFC 031646
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE GRANITE CREEK RX...SOA DFFP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
846 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 AKDT ON MAY 04.
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE BULK OF ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND A VARIABLE WIND BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION, IS EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 MPH LIKELY.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
40 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST 5
TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 400 FT AGL IN THE MORNING RISING TO AROUND
1300 FT AGL BY NOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (1192-1474 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........99 95 95 95 93 90
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN
CWR.............50 50 50 50 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 60 60 60 50 40
TEMP............46 47 48 48 49 48
RH..............78 81 75 70 65 68
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 5 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST. 7 9 11 13 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 8 8 9 9
VENT (M^2/S)....119211921192119214741474
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) IN THE EVENING
BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........E WIND 4 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 4 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL IN THE EVENING FALLING TO AROUND
500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 5 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (78-1474 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........85 80 72 68 74 80 85 87 87 87 94 94
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20
TEMP............47 47 46 45 44 43 43 42 41 40 39 39
RH..............72 75 71 66 62 64 67 70 72 75 77 73
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E E E E NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 12 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5
VENT (M^2/S)....1474147414741474455 455 455 455 455 455 78 78
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS BY AROUND NOON.
CWR.................AROUND 5 PERCENT EARLY INCREASING TO AROUND
30 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
60 PERCENT BY NOON.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN THE MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH BY AROUND NOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING RISING
TO AROUND 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 9 AND 13 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (78-3749 M^2/S).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94 93 93 93 96 96 96 95 95 95 94 94
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 20 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 30 40 60 60 50 40 40
TEMP............39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 49 50 49
RH..............71 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 52 49 51
20 FT WIND DIR..NW SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST. 6 6 6 9 9 9 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 5 4 4 8 9 9 12 12 12 9 9
VENT (M^2/S)....78 78 78 78 34673467346734673467346737493749
FORECASTER...MARKLE
REQUESTED BY...JERED KEMP
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612149.0/AER
.DELDT 05/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JERED.KEMP@ALASKA.GOV
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