491
FNAK71 PAFC 191439
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR BULCHITNA...DIVISION OF FORESTRY & FIRE PROTECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
639 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 AKDT ON JUNE 19.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
GMT SATURDAY...
DISCUSSION
A GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM TRACKS WILL BE SLOW AND DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHAFT COULD LEAD
TO NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM
SKY (%).........53 53 53 50 50 50 55 55 55 70 70
WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 60 60
TEMP............54 58 62 66 69 73 75 77 78 79 79
RH..............69 61 54 49 44 40 37 34 33 33 33
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.7 0.7 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE N N N NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........70 61 61 61 47 47 47 43 43 43 29 29
WEATHER COV.....NUM SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............78 76 74 72 69 66 62 58 54 52 50 49
RH..............35 40 43 47 51 57 66 75 81 86 88 91
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S S SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.7 9 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E NE NE NE N N N E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5
TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM
SKY (%).........29 15 15 15 17 17 17 28 28 28 40 40
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
TEMP............49 51 54 57 61 64 68 71 73 75 76 77
RH..............90 86 79 70 65 59 51 47 43 40 38 36
20 FT WIND DIR..E N N N N N N S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E SE SE SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8
FORECASTER...RUX
REQUESTED BY...TERESA ROSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2615762.1/AER
.DELDT 06/19/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TERESA.ROSE@ALASKA.GOV
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