830
FXAK67 PAJK 300640
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN
MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN WITH CIGS OF 1500 FT OR LESS
AND VIS OF 3 TO 5 SM, WITH SOME INTERMITTENT DROPS TO LIFR CIGS
AND 1 TO 2 SM VIS. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS DIPPING FROM PREDOMINANTLY LOW-END MVFR DOWN TO
IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING. LOW CEILINGS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SEEING CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING INTO
MIDDAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 TO
2500 FT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING MOST AREAS
MVFR STILL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS MORE LIKELY GOING INTO THE
EVENING AS SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE, BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND SOME ON AND OFF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE.
- A BRIEF LULL IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING OVER THE REGION ARE DRIVING THIS ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN,
WITH A WEAKER DIGGING TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCES THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ORGANIZED
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY LIGHTER SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH DAILY TOTALS
AROUND 0.1” TO 0.6”. ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INITIALLY NEAR YAKUTAT, BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN RATES OF 0.1” TO
0.2” PER HOUR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON
MONDAY, EXPECT LOWER TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN REGIONS,
SPECIFICALLY OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AS MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENHANCED BY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 24 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1.5” TO 2.5” OVER
THE NORTH AND 0.75” TO 1.25” OVER THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHEN’S PASSAGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAND ZONES.
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. BREAKS IN RAIN TOMORROW COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR CLEARING SKIES TOMORROW WILL BE IN NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM...
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL LONG TERM IN TERMS OF IMPACT, BUT SEVERAL
INTERESTING FEATURES AND TIDBITS. THE FIRST BEING TUESDAY MORNING,
AS THE STRONGER LOW MOVES DOWN FROM THE NE GULF COAST TOWARDS
DIXON ENTRANCE. RATHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW; AND WITH SOME LEESIDE TROUGHING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, IT COULD BE AS LOW AS 990 MB NEAR YAKUTAT
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 0 C. AS A RESULT,
EXPECTING LAPSE RATES AROUND THE LOW CENTER TO BE STRONGER. WITH
STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION, EXPECTING PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OUTER COAST. MOST OF THE RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE OUTER COAST WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW, BUT SINCE THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT, NOT
EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO HAVE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, MERGING WITH THE
EXISTING LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE, STRENGTHENING IT AGAIN. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE
ONGOING SYSTEM, BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARDS IMPACTING THE
CANADIAN AREAS.
GOING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING RETURNS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...DIFFICULT DAY FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. MANY AREAS OF
THE PANHANDLE ARE OBSERVING VIS AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES AND CEILINGS
DOWN TO 1500 FT OR LESS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EVEN DOWN TO 1 MILE
VIS (SITKA AND YAKUTAT) AND A FEW HUNDRED FEET CEILINGS (ALSO
SITKA AND YAKUTAT). THIS IS DUE TO THE SECOND OF TWO FRONTS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS JUST REINFORCING THE ALREADY LOW CONDITIONS
THAT MANY AREAS WERE SEEING THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM CAPE
FAIRWEATHER S AND E. THE LOW CONDITIONS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY
LOW FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN THEN WILL LIKELY STAY
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN SOME AREAS, BUT ONLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS
EVENING THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. ALOFT, WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SEEN
AT THE SURFACE AND PILOT REPORTS HAVE ONLY HAD SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF LIGHT TURBULENCE AT LOW ALTITUDES TODAY (AND LITTLE TO NO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REPORTS). THESE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND WINDS
LIGHTEN.
MARINE...INNER CHANNELS: INNER CHANNEL WINDS TODAY HAVE NOT BEEN
THAT STRONG. HIGHEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS
ISLAND (E WIND 25 KT MOST OF THE DAY), NORTHERN LYNN, AND CLARENCE
STRAIT (20 KT IN BOTH PLACES AT VARIOUS POINTS TODAY) SO FAR. AT
LEAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS INNER
CHANNELS WINDS ARE GOING TO GET. THE SECOND FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH RIGHT NOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE FIRST ONE LAST NIGHT WAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY.
LIKEWISE SEAS ARE AROUND 4 FT OR SO FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DO. OF GREATER CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. SOME AREAS HAVE
BEEN AS LOW AS 1 MILE AND MORE AREAS THAT LOW WILL LIKELY BE
ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
SUNDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AS A NEW FRONT MOVES IN AT THAT TIME. WIDE SPREAD
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE
INNER CHANNELS STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN LYNN
CANAL WHERE 30 KT WINDS COULD BE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.
GULF WATERS: SOMEWHAT ACTIVE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT LEAST TWO LOWS WILL BE MOVING SE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
FROM THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. OVERALL THE WIND PATTERN OVER
THE GULF FAVORS W TO NW WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES,
WHILE THE WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE NEAR THE COAST
SWITCHING FROM S AND SW AHEAD OF EACH LOW, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AS THE LOW PASSES, AND FINALLY BECOMING MORE N AND NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOWS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE WITH THE SECOND LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH NEAR GALE EXPECTED FOR
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. NEAR COASTAL WATERS WILL FEATURE WEAKER
WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT OR SO EVEN WITH THE SECOND STRONGER LOW.
SEAS WILL BE GOING UP AND DOWN AS WELL WITH UP TO 8 FT SEAS FOR
THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND UP TO 13 FT SEAS OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF
FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY, SEAS WILL BE
AS LOW AS 6 FT. PREDOMINATE SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 FT OUT OF
THE W FOR MOST OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661>663.
SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page