478
FXAK67 PAJK 131350 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKDT WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM REACHES SE AK LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THE FARTHER EASTWARD IT HAS MOVED. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER NIGHT INCLUDED DECREASING WINDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MINIMAL RAIN TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SIMILARLY TO PRECIPITATION, WINDS WERE DECREASED DUE TO WEAKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OVER
LYNN CANAL INTO SKAGWAY AND CLARENCE STRAIT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF,
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED, THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME SSE AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER END INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE
BERING SEA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TO
FALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS GENERALLY WEAKER
FRONT WILL NOT BRING UP THE WINDS MUCH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH, WITH THE WINDS OVER LAND AREAS LARGELY STAYING
BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AS THE LOW LINGERS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKENS,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LESS ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF B.C. AS SOME RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC ALONG WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE, KEEPING MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MORE SOUTHWARD WITH MORE OF A BREAK IN WEATHER FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS (DOWN
TO 1500 FT) ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT A FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
BY WED AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE OUTER COAST
SEEING IT COME IN THIS MORNING (AROUND 15 TO 20Z) WHILE AREAS
FARTHER INLAND LIKE WRANGELL, JUNEAU, HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL WAIT
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND 20 TO 23Z). INITIALLY VISIBILITY WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, BUT SOME AREAS OF MVFR VIS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING AS SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE IN.
CEILINGS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO LOWER AS WELL WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
(MOSTLY LOWER CEILINGS) WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLATED IFR TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SOMEWHAT. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MAYBE SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES AS THE
FRONT COMES INLAND WED.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE EVEN
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THOSE AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS. WINDS ACROSS OTHER INNER CHANNELS WILL ALSO STAY ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. THESE OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SHORT TIMES OF
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER AND
CALMER SIDE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL
REACH SE AK LATE THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
INTO THE PANHANDLE IS NOT AS STRONG AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
BEING SAID, THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE AND ARE STILL LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS THIS MORNING. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, IT IS LIKELY THAT AN AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST, NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS EVENING WITH THAT WESTERLY PUSH.
AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE GULF FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR SEAS,
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE GULF INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...CONTINO/GFS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAB
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