104
FXAK67 PAJK 060558
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 PM AKDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR,
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE
GULF IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW NORTH OF THE HIGH PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER INTO
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. LOW STRATUS, FOG
AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM YAKUTAT ON DOWN
INTO CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT, PERIL STRAIT AND TOWARDS
SITKA AND APPROACHING WESTERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND. FOG AND MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD BUILD
ALONG POW COASTLINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT RAIN BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT BUILDS ONSHORE, CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
STEADIER RAIN WILL GENERALLY FALL NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SPOTTIER RAIN TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, HYDER
AND POW. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
AN OVERALL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM FREDERICK
SOUND ON NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH, MID TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S, BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM
/ TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY / FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE ZONAL HEADED INTO MIDWEEK THAT WILL MEAN QUICKER
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS. A STRONGER FEATURE FOR LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
THEN WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING FEATURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
RUN ALONG THE FEATURE, AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OR
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BEHIND THAT, LOOKS LIKE SEAK MAY GET
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER, THAT MEANS WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THE SEAK FALL TO ARRIVE.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ARE
LOOKING TO BE MAYBE 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FOR THE 24 HR AND UP TO
MAYBE 1 INCH FOR THE DIFFERENT PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AND SKIES BRINGING
MORE BREAKS AND WHAT IS LOOKING TO BE START OF DRY WEEKEND, BASED
ON THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION
FLYING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE VERY LOCATION
DEPENDENT AS A MARINE LAYER HAS SET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTER
COAST AND IS WORKING INTO PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS. WITH THIS
MARINE LAYER, CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPING FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AND
LIFR. SOME VISIBILITY DROPS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLING BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE
CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEADING INTO THE MORNING,
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE LOWERED CEILINGS COULD PERSIST. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE WE SEE
THIS HAPPEN WOULD BE ALONG THE OUTER COAST WHERE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS BEEN AROUND LONGER.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND A NEW FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS THAT WILL INITIALLY BE
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY WILL START TO SWITCH TO A S AND SE DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY AS THE NEW FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KT,
THOUGH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS UP TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF KAYAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO
THE SW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH WITH MAX COMBINED
SEAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH
A LOW SW SWELL OF AROUND 3 TO 4 FT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE
IS EXPECTED FOR WAVES AND SWELL HEIGHTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE
GULF WATERS WILL BE LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE INNER
CHANNELS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
INNER CHANNELS...RATHER QUIET WEATHER FOR THE INNER CHANNELS WITH
MOSTLY N AND W WINDS TO 15 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 4 FT OR LESS. LYNN CANAL IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION FROM A STOUT SEA BREEZE COMING UP TAIYA INLET, WITH
SKAGWAY SEEING ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VARIOUS SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY ABSENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FROM THE GULF WILL HAVE
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE (PARTICULARLY THE NORTH)
SEVERELY HAMPERING SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS (DOWN TO 1 MILE OR SO) FROM MARINE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AGAIN ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
SUNDAY WHERE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE AREA.
.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-652-661-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...STJ
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