427
FXAK67 PAJK 112351
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY SLOWLY PUSH BACK INLAND OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
- AREAS OF HAZE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY DUE TO WILDFIRES IN CANADA.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS EXPECTED, THERE HAVE BEEN
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. BUT FARTHER NORTH, CLOUDINESS HAS REMAINED
IN PLACE, INCLUDING THE YAKUTAT AREA, WHERE PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED THE MOST PERSISTENT SUN. AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING, A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF SHOULD HELP
ADVANCE THE MARINE LAYER BACK INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF HAZE AND SMOKE ASSOCIATED
WITH CANADIAN WILDFIRES PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT HAS CAPTURED THIS WELL AND SHOWS IT
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATER TONIGHT, FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN, ESPECIALLY WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THE FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
INCLUDING PETERSBURG, KETCHIKAN, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, WHERE
IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS, WHERE THE WIND REGIME MAY
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FURTHER WEAKENS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, SHOWER CHANCES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, PARTICULARLY FROM
YAKUTAT WESTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR KENAI PENINSULA.
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM.../ TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER, AND SEND DISTURBANCES
TOWARD ANCHORAGE; WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED. MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH ON
SHORE FLOW, BUT WEST OF YAKUTAT COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO
1.5". WITH THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, EASTERLY WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS AND WAVES UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ICY BAY
AND KAYAK ISLAND.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED, WHICH IS A PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CANADA. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE
TO COME OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, THERE MAY BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVER THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW
THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING CONFLICTING LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF INTO ICY STRAIT AND THROUGH N LYNN CANAL ALLOWING FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND
3000 FT. AREAS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT HAVE SEEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. FOG ONCE AGAIN IS A
CONCERN FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE FOG INCLUDE PETERSBURG AND PRICE OF WALES ISLAND. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP IT CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 2 SM WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPACTED BY A MARINE LAYER THAT WILL
KEEP CEILINGS LOW. BECAUSE OF FOG AND THE MARINE LAYER PERIODS OF
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY. THE NEXT
LOW BRINGS MORE RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO SE AK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER THING WE ARE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE AREA IN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA CANADA AREA. WE WILL WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD, IN CASE THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
DO MOVE INTO THE AREA THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SKAGWAY
AREA WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS BEING SAID,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS AROUND TAIYA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF INCREASED WINDS. TOMORROW, STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER N LYNN CANAL, ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT TAIYA
INLET. TAIYA INLET SPECIFICALLY COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE. THE TREND OF STRONGER
AFTERNOON OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MUCH, BUT
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE
NORTHERN GULF, NEAR KAYAK ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH WINDS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE GULF, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 8 FT WAVES NEAR KAYAK
ISLAND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN THEN DIMINISH MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAB
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page