083
FXAK67 PAJK 250007
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKST TUE FEB 24 2026
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WED NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A
MIXED BAG ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA ARE HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING WITH
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO MOSTLY ISOTHERMAL AROUND FREEZING THROUGH THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET SO THAT IS RESULTING IN MIXING OR SNOW
THAT IS RIMED OVER WHEN SURFACE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AS A RESULT (AROUND 1 TO 4
INCHES) WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN JUNEAU
TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS WITH FIVE FINGERS AND SCULL ISLAND REPORTING 25 TO 30 KT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. THE EFFECTS FROM
THIS FEATURE MOVING IS WILL BE SEVERAL FOLD. FIRST, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS DOWN INTO THE NEG TEENS C WILL
BE FLOWING ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE WEST AND WHILE THE WARMER GULF
WATERS WILL MODERATE THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT, THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE SO COLD THAT ALL OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH WHILE 20S WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SECOND, ALL THIS COLD AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
GULF WATERS WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
IMPACT THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE RATHER HEAVY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR MASS COMING ACROSS THE
GULF (20 DEGREES F) AND THE GULF WATERS WATER TEMPERATURE (MID 40S
F). EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO START IN THE NORTH AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGE LINES ORIENTED
NW TO SE BEING THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. AT THE
MOMENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ELFIN COVE,
PELICAN, JUNEAU, SKAGWAY, SITKA, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FOR
SNOW RATES IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH PER 12 HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER, WITH HOW
HIT OR MISS SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS TYPE OF WEATHER SITUATION TEND
TO BE, VARIOUS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW TOTALS THAT END UP A FEW INCHES HIGHER OR
LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THIRD, WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE INCREASING WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GOOD PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE STARTING
TO RAMP UP AGAIN, BUT THEY WILL NOT START UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THAT POINT EXPECT LYNN CANAL TO START REACHING GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS COMING OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST.
LONG TERM
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AK, WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WILL FILTER IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE PANHANDLE, EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF THE SNOW FROM THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTH. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE FROM ICY STRAIT SOUTH, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
NEAR PORT ALEXANDER AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW, BUT LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL KEEP FAIRLY SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
WITH THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW STRENGTHENING AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL
850 TEMPS ALOFT, EXPECTING COLD TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AK FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH TO
UPPER 20S AND 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DIP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS
AND 20S SOUTH. BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
HIGHWAYS, ESP THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THEY
REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRADDLING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH AND UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH AND A STEADY UPPER-LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE WAVES AND UPTICKS IN MOISTURE WILL PASS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING MORE SNOW.
PRELIMINARY FORECAST IS SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND JUNEAU WITH 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE, WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 8+ INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WARMER AIR AND RISING SNOW
LEVELS COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN THAT WOULD EAT
INTO SNOW TOTAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FOR YAKUTAT AND ESPECIALLY SKAGWAY AND HAINES. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND THE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
AVIATION
AS RAIN AND SNOW PERSIST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A LOW OVER THE GULF BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DURING THE LIGHTER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
DECREASE DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS. THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTING
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY HEADED INTO TOMORROW.
WITH THE SHOWERY NATURE, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO VFR CONDITIONS WHILE AREAS IN THE SHOWERS COULD
BE DROPPING DOWN TO LIFR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ONE CONCERN HEADED INTO TOMORROW WITH THE SHOWERS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO CONVECTION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GOING INTO THE DAY.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. FIVE FINGERS,
SCULL ISLAND, AND ROCKY INLAND ARE ALL BLOWING 25 TO 30 KT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS FOR WINDS RIGHT NOW. INNER CHANNELS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT WHEN THE HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE GULF REACH THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY, THE MORE EAST/WEST
CHANNELS (LIKE ICY STRAIT, AND FREDERICK SOUND) WILL SEE SOME
INCREASES IN W TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. FINALLY TOWARD
LATE WED NIGHT, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL BE STARTING UP IN THE NORTH
SO EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH FROM S TO N FOR LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER
BAY WITH LYNN CANAL WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST MIN GALE FORCE BY
LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 4 FT OR LESS WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING UP TO 6 FT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AS THEY CROP UP.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY RETURNS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
CHANNELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OUTFLOW STARTS UP AND AIR
TEMPERATURES START DROPPING.
GULF WATERS: EXPECT INCREASING W WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL THEN LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WILL SEE WINDS REACHING MID RANGE GALE
BY WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE
SITTING AROUND 7 TO 10 FT CURRENTLY WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF (SWELL IS AROUND 7 TO 8 FT FROM THE SW
AT A PERIOD OF 8 SEC). EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE WITH A LONG FETCH
OF INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST TO EAST DISTANCE OF THE
GULF. SEAS MAX OUT AROUND 20 TO 30 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO SUBSIDE INTO THURSDAY. ONE OTHER THING IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING SPRAY FOR EVEN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY
WED NIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
HIGHER WINDS. IT IS MAINLY GOING TO BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY THOUGH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM AKST
THURSDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM AKST
THURSDAY FOR AKZ323-328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ661-663-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-034-035-053-641>644-
651-652-662-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
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