419
FXAK67 PAJK 181324
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
524 AM AKDT SAT APR 18 2026
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE PANHANDLE INTO SATURDAY EVENING FROM A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF AS
WELL AS ANOTHER LOW SPINNING OFF OF HAIDA GWAII. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN AT SEA LEVEL AS
SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500 FT. HIGHER INLAND AREAS OF
BOTH THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL SEE SOME WET
SNOW. WHITE PASS IS LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES DURING ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD. THIS COULD
ALSO BE LIMITED DUE TO SHADOWING FROM MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
RIDGE IN THE GULF. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY THEN RIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON A
DOWNWARD TREND RECENTLY.
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AS
THE LOW OFF HAIDA GWAII EVENTUALLY STALLS AND THEN WEAKENS WHILE
IT RETREATS SOUTHWARD, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BEGINNING TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGHEST
WINDS REMAIN NEAR SKAGWAY THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT REDUCED (DOWN
TO 15 KT) COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GULF
FROM THE WEST WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF, THOUGH
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND FRESH BREEZE (17 TO 21 KT). FOR MORE
INFO ON MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FORCING THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. UNCERTAINTY
HAS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH MODELS COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH A POTENTIAL BREAK IN RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
LOCATIONS NEAR YAKUTAT AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SEE
THE MOST RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS FRONT, PRECIPITATION HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FALLING AS SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
NEAR YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHERN HIGHWAYS. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
OUTER GULF WATERS AND INTO THE N/S ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THIS FRONTAL BAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AROUND MID 30S. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY, DRAGGING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE CENTRAL
& INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
POST-FRONTAL MOIST ONSHORE-FLOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT INTO THE FUTURE. FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WSW WINDS
UP TO 35 TO 40 KT GALES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
MULTIPLE FRONTS AND ONSHORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FLYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF COASTLINE REMAINING
BETWEEN LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. AS THE LOW TO THE SW OF HAIDA GWAII
MOVES A FRONT NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING,
AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO PREDOMINANTLY LOW-END MVFR, DOWN TO
IFR AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP TO ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DROP
TO LOW-END MVFR CLOSER TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE RIDGING TO
THE SE OVER B.C. KEEPS CIGS LARGELY ABOVE 3000 FT THIS MORNING,
WITH THESE LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL GULF COASTLINE WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR UP TO HIGH END MVFR TO POTENTIALLY VFR NEAR THE
VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...HIGHEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE CONCENTRATED IN
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL (UP TO 20 KT S WINDS AT ELDRED ROCK), AND
THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE SEEING 15 KT OR LESS OF WINDS FROM MAINLY
A S OR E DIRECTION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE 3 TO
4 FT OR LESS MAINLY FROM WIND WAVE EVEN IN THE OCEAN ENTRANCES
WITH VERY LITTLE INCOMING SWELL TO ENHANCE SEAS THERE.
GULF WATERS...THE GULF WATERS ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL GULF IS
ALREADY SHOWING A WIND SHIFT TO NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MAGNITUDES
WITH THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 20 KT AT MOST.
SEAS ARE RATHER QUIET TOO WITH COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 4 TO 5 FT
MAINLY FROM WIND WAVE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN SOME SOUTHERLY SWELL OF AROUND 4 FT WITH SOME WIND
WAVE TO 4 TO 5 FT WILL START TO BUILD COMBINED SEAS TO AROUND 6 TO
8 FT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 58N LATITUDE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661-664, 641, 643, 644.
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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