067
FXAK67 PAJK 260016
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
416 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD LATE INTO
SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
OVER THE WEEKEND A BROAD LOW WILL DOMINATE SOUTHEAST’S WEATHER,
DRIVING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION. PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WAS
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE THIS EVENING PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. FURTHERMORE, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRIKES
OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
WITH 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 10PM SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING THIS WAVE WILL HAVE
COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OVER SOUTHEAST, STALLING OUT, WITH EXPANDED
CLOUD COVERAGE, CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AND COOLER TEMPS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE AREA. MONDAY ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SERVING AS THE SOURCE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND INCREASED EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS, WITH
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AREA WIDE AND STRONGER
WINDS TO DIXON ENTRANCE TO CLARENCE STRAIT (UP TO 20 KTS). THAT
INITIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY, BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASES
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS, THEY LOOK TO BRING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVERALL IS LOOKING FAIRLY WET FOR THE
END OF JULY. WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER,
SOME NORTHERN INLAND LOCATION COULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, CAUSING PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN TAF SITES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING CEILINGS TO AT OR ABOVE
1,500 FT AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
INTERACTION WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO TRIGGER GUSTY WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A SLOW-MOVING, WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING THESE SHOWERS NORTHWARD, WITH CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
IMPROVE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. AS
SHOWERS EXIT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CENTRAL SITES WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY. BY TOMORROW, THE LOW WILL
DEPART, LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY RAIN AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALTHOUGH PAKT MAY SEE INCREASED
SPEEDS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST INTO BRITISH COLOMBIA, OCCASIONALLY PUSHING FRONTAL BANDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS STAY
SEASONABLY NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH TO REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN, THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE AND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CAPE DECISION. DUE
TO THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO BELOW 25 KTS, AS THEIR
STRENGTH LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVERGENCE THROUGH DIXON
ENTRANCE. SEAS INCREASE TO 6-8 FT NEAR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ENTRANCES AND COASTAL WATERS AND DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
INNER CHANNELS: PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING DOMINATED THE WIND PATTERN
OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE YUKON AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CLEARING OF SKIES, NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN
STARTING TO SEE WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THEREFORE, SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN DIRECTION. NORTHERLIES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 10-15 KTS, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO PREDOMINATELY S-SE AS FRONTAL BANDS PROGRESSIVELY TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SOUTH TO CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS ARE
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS IN SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661-662.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...BAS
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