972
FXAK67 PAJK 280555 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2026
UPDATE...AFTER 06Z
NOT MUCH CONCERNS FOR THE TAF'S TONIGHT
WITH MOST SITES SHOWING GOOD FLIGHT WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. RECENTLY A SMALL POCKET OF PATCHY FOG
FORMING NEAR KETCHIKAN, THE HAS GONE TO LOWER CLOUDS FRIDAY
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM FRI MAR 27
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE IN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ THE PANHANDLE REMAINS SHARPLY
DIVIDED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER PATTERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH ITS SE FLANK
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW
HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND WILL CONTINUE
MEANDERING AROUND THE AREA BEFORE FALLING APART ON SUNDAY.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAKENING LOW AND A HIGH OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TIME FRAME,
ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE THAT THEY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
LOW FILLS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY DRIER WEATHER,
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME, AND NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES PRECIPITATION WISE. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT; WITH SOME SHELTERED AREAS
REACHING THE TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS, BEFORE SPIKING BACK UPWARDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LATE MARCH SUN MAKES ITS IMPACT
FELT.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY CONTRAST WILL SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH, WITH SNOW PREVAILING DURING THE EVENING,
OVERNIGHT, AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UP THROUGH ~500
MB, THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW, WARMER SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WILL LARGELY CUT OFF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH SNOW MELTING AS FAST AS IT CAN FALL IN SOME
LOCALES. WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, FINAL SNOW TOTALS WILL ULTIMATELY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE, WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 4-15 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR SEA LEVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF SATURDAY, AND BY SUNDAY, WILL HAVE FALLEN APART ENTIRELY.
EVEN AS THE LOW FALLS APART THROUGH SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE W LOOKS SET TO BRING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
BACK ACROSS THE OUTER COAST AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL, WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A BREAK
DAY FOR THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE WHOLE PANHANDLE THE CHANCE TO SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DETERIORATING LOW TAPER OFF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND AWAY FROM SE AK. A 500 MB LOW MOVES ALONG THE DEEPEST
PART OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PROCEEDED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE INFLECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OUTER GULF COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH THIS
DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN THE OUTER COAST.
A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUMPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL CATCH UP
WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORTWAVE BAND, WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PART OF THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BAND
MAY EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT THIS.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THIS WILL JUST MANIFEST AS FLURRIES FOR ANY
LOCATION NORTH OF ANGOON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-8 TO -10 DEGREES
C) WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS SNOW, WITH THE CHANCE TO
MIX INTO RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED SUN
ANGLE, WILL MAKE IT SO MOST SNOWFALL DOES NOT ACCUMULATE UNTIL THE
EVENING OR NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DECREASE, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE WATER.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPART QUICKLY, DIPPING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE EXACT IMPACTS THROUGH
THE EARLY WEEK, AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND RESULTING FRONT. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE EC, THOUGH STILL MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER
AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE GOING UP THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND, THOUGH THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, LIGHT OUTFLOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER LYNN CANAL. THIS
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN AND OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE
EARLY WEEK, POTENTIAL CLOUDING UP MORE BY TUESDAY WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL BAND. THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL START CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH UNTIL A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY/...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN, THOUGH IT IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS
FOR PASI & NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THEIR AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY REDUCE CIG & VIS CONDITIONS TO
THE MVFR CATEGORY RANGE WHEN THEY OCCUR. BETWEEN THESE SNOW
SHOWERS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE VFR CATEGORY.
GENERALLY, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY
RANGE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN & PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS
TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF TIMEFRAME. SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING THE LYNN CANAL / PAGY / PAHN AREA,
WITH A CONTINUED GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THAT REGION CONTINUES TO LOOSEN UP AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THE
OUTFLOW WEAKENS. GENERALLY, THOSE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY LLWS OF AROUND 25 KT CENTERED ALOFT AT
AROUND 1.5 KFT AROUND THE PAJN AREA LOOKS TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
MARINE...
INNER CHANNELS...OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW
DOWN LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF TAKU INLET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DECAY. HOWEVER, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR MANY OF THE THOSE NORTHERN
CHANNELS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE 20 KT OR
LESS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH OR EAST. CLARENCE STRAIT IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO SWITCH TO A NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DISINTEGRATES. THE HIGHER SEAS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE STILL
MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE OUTFLOW AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE LONGER FETCH
AREAS OF LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WHERE HIGH WINDS BLOWING
DOWN THE LONG LINEAR CHANNELS BUILT SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FT. THOSE SEAS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
GULF WATERS...FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF WITH ANY WINDS OVER 20 KT
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SE GULF NEAR PRINCE OF WALES AND DIXON
ENTRANCE. THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT
AS THE LOW WEAKENS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY N TO NW 15 KT OR LESS WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LOW
WITH 3 TO 8 FT SEAS AND LITTLE TO NO SWELL. A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE 5 FT OR
LESS BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328-330-
332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-661.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page