871
FXAK67 PAJK 132323
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM N TO S NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES TO BE
THE BIG STORY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SE AK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES THROUGH. AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT
PUSHING INLAND HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING MOST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OUTER GULF
COAST. RAINFALL RATES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE E ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM,
ALTHOUGH BY MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE AND FOR MORE INTERIOR AREAS (LIKE JUNEAU).
INCREASED QPF TOTALS IN THE FORECAST, BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THE
NBM GENERALLY HAS THE RIGHT TRENDS, ALBEIT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
UNDER DOING PRECIP. ANTICIPATE 2-4 INCHES FOR YAKUTAT, 1-2 INCHES
FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, AND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, ANOTHER 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SHOWERS IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL LEAD TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WITH GENERALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, SEABREEZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE BRINGS SINKING AIR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
INITIAL FRONT OF THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE RAIN, VIS AND CEILINGS REMAIN MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD
AND GUSTAVUS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 500 FT AND VIS DOWN TO 2 MILES
(MAINLY AT YAKUTAT FOR THE VIS). WE HAVE THE DRY SLOT OF THE
SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
MOSTLY SHUT OFF THE RAIN FOR A TIME AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FRONT (WHICH IS STRONGER THEN TODAY'S
FRONT) WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED TO START UP ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AS EARLY AS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND FROM THERE FROM FREDERICK SOUND
NORTHWARD. YAKUTAT WILL BARE THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WITH VIS
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY BEFORE IT MOVES E TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY WITH 2000 FT AGL
WINDS REACHING 40 KT OUT OF THE SE) AND TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY BE
AN ISSUE ALONG THE NE GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STAY MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS THE RAINFALL MOVES IN.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF): FOR THE WEEKEND, GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST, FRESH SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT, AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
FURTHER DETAIL:
WINDS WILL EBB A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
DON'T LET THIS LULL YOU INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY. WINDS
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED TO START SOMETIME NEAR 12 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HEAVIEST WINDS WEST OF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE ST.
ELIAS. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME JUST SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. WAVE
GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY;
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE, EXPECT SHORT PERIOD FRESH SEAS OF AT LEAST
17 FT TO AS HIGH AS 20 FT NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS. AGAIN, THE HEAVIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS AND EAST TOWARD THE
FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. FOR FOLKS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST OF POW, EXPECT WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
AND SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS SLOWLY RAMP UP SATURDAY, REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY SUNDAY.
FURTHER DETAIL: FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS A GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. FOR THIS
SURFACE PRESSURE REGIME, THE MAIN PROBLEM AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY LOOK TO BE CHATHAM STRAIT, PERIL STRAIT,
AND ICY STRAIT, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS OF AT LEAST
MODERATE BREEZES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS WIND UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO JUMP ASHORE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE INSIDE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ON MONDAY.
A NOTE ON GLACIER BAY FOR SUNDAY: MARINERS NAVIGATING THE UPPER
ARMS OF GLACIER BAY SUNDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF AN OCCLUDING FRONT
MOVING OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SOUTHEASTERLIES TO BUILD
SUNDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES OVER, WHICH COULD BRING PRETTY
INTENSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INLETS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH LIKE REID
INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
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