087
FXAK67 PAJK 061306
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
506 AM AKDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES, WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WHILE GENERALLY DRIER
WEATHER CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE RETURNED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
THE OUTER GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE OVER SE AK HAS WEAKENED,
ENABLING IMPULSES TO BEGIN MOVING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS, BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE SWILL REMAIN MORE SEASONAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER,
WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF SE AK WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH LIKE KETCHIKAN. PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO
THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN WINDS FOR KETCHIKAN AND
FOR LYNN CANAL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
ON THE HORIZON FRIDAY, AS A MUCH STRONGER LOW PUSHES INTO THE GULF
AND BREAKS APART THE RIDGE, HERALDING THE RETURN TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND WIND FOR SE AK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS WEEKEND BRINGS RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GULF. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER POW ISLAND AND MAKE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SO
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS.
WINDS IN DIXON ENTRANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 25MPH
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CHANNEL UP CLARENCE STRAIT
AND DIE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WINDS
WILL PICK UP IN THE INNER CHANNELS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE SEAK
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 6000FT AND 4 TO 6 SM.
LOCALIZED IFR NEAR YAKUTAT THIS MORNING AS 10Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING
A SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS IS SURFACE LOW AND
ITS ATTENDANT INCOMING MID- LVL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP YAKUTAT IN
CONTINUAL RAIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH SLOW
IMPROVMENTEXPECTED FROM LIFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
IN COMBINATION WITH A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N PACIFIC,
EXPECTING ON-SHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TERMINALS OF PASI, PAJN, AND PAGS, WITH IMPROVEMENTS EITHER SIDE
WITH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PAHN AND PAGY AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM PAPG TO PAKW IMPROVING TO PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AOA 4500FT. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PAKT AND
PAKW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SEAK TERMINALS WITH SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF THE
USUAL SUSPECTS OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25KTS,
RESPECTIVALLY, WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP 35KTS AT SKAGWAY. NO LLWS
CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON ACROSS S PANHANDLE
- HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
AND STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 10 TO 12 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FOLLOWING THE WINDS, REACHING A MORE
UNIFORM 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY 4 TO 5
FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 7 TO 8 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT A
10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 2 FT AT 8 TO 10
SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SWATH OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SURGES NORTHWARD WITH WAVES REACHING 9-12 FT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE: WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ALONG WITH PARTS OF CROSS SOUND AND
ICY STRAIT NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING THURSDAY AND TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH.
2 TO 3 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST IN THE CHANNELS EXPERIENCING
THE STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING
3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 7 FT
WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SWEEPS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS
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