514  
FXAK67 PAJK 051304  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
504 AM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SHORT TERM  
LITTLE TO NO WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS HAS  
KEPT AN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE NORTHER AND  
CENTRAL PANHANDLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. MOST MODELS ALSO HAVE THE  
CLOUDS PUSHING NORTHWARD WITH A DISTINCT BREAK BETWEEN THE  
NORTHERN CLOUDS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IDEA IS  
STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SATELLITE, BUT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE  
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MODELS HAVE, SO BACKED OFF ON THE  
IMPROVING TREND TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUKON ON FRIDAY TRACKED  
SOUTHWARD OVER HAINES/SKAGWAY LATE LAST NIGHT, CAUSING SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS, EXTENDING TO YAKUTAT BRIEFLY. MOST MODELS HAVE THESE  
SHOWERS FIZZLING OUT, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES SEEM PROBABLY ENOUGH  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UP NORTH AND INTO THE AFTERNOON  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
FURTHER SOUTH, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK  
ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO  
INCREASE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT CATCHES UP AND MERGES WITH THE  
FIRST, PUSHING THE WHOLE FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL  
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPS WERE NOT ADJUSTED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HOWEVER ANY  
CHANCE FOR HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S WILL BE HIGHLY  
DEPENDENT ON SUNNY BREAKS. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY  
COVER FORECAST, THERE IS ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM  
/AS OF 353PM FRIDAY/ KEY MESSAGES:  
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
- FRONT TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.  
- THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF AT THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
- HEAVY RAIN STILL ON TRACK FOR FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY.  
 
DETAILS: TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE  
NORTHWEST GULF AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT WILL BRING A SHIFT  
TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND INCREASING  
PRECIPITATION RATES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO  
BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAN THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE  
SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN,  
WITH HEAVY RAIN ON TAP FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG WITH  
INCREASED MARINE WINDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE MARINE  
DISCUSSION.  
 
MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS EARLY WEEK  
SYSTEM, HOWEVER OVERALL THE TREND HAS WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE  
EASTERN GULF TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH A  
FRESH INFLUX OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SPREADING  
NORTHWARDS TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTHERN  
PANHANDLE. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX STILL HAS SOT VALUES  
NEAR 2 FOR QPF FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OF MORE THAN 80%  
MEMBERS, FOR THE 24 HR PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE  
FOR PRODUCING THIS HEAVY RAIN AND THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS GUIDING  
IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE HEADING INTO THE NEXT  
WORK WEEK. WHILE CONTINUED MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PROVIDING A  
SPREAD RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, FORECASTER  
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN  
PANHANDLE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PREDOMINANT  
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME FOG  
AND LOW LYING STRATUS WHICH FORMED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN  
A FEW SPOTS QUICKLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CHANCES  
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH MORE WINDY CONDITIONS AS A  
SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY,  
ANTICIPATE MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BACK TO MVFR, WITH CEILINGS FOR  
SOME PLACES FALLING BELOW 3,000 FT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
INSIDE WATERS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START  
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME LARGELY S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE CLARENCE STRAIT THAT WILL SEE A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES DIXON  
ENTRANCE, HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED SE WINDS FOR THIS AREA TO 20KT  
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE INCREASING TREND WILL SPREAD  
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT WITH 15-20KT WINDS MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY AS  
A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
.OUTSIDE WATERS: A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN SE GULF WILL CAUSE  
SE-E WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20KT TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS  
THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. TONIGHT, A LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH A FRONT PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GULF  
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS FRONT TO  
20-25KT, AND A BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST OF  
25-30KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT THE  
GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING 3-5FT, WITH A S-SW SWELL OF AROUND 9  
SECONDS. NOT EXPECTING A BIG INCREASE IN SEAS WITH THE SUNDAY  
FRONT, BUILDING 6-8FT WITH THE BARRIER JET/SMALL CRAFT AREA.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
/AS OF 353PM FRIDAY/ MAIN STORY FOR HYDRO IS HEAVY  
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY COULD SERVE AS A  
PRIMER FOR STREAMS DOWN THERE, HOWEVER THE FORECASTED LOCATION OF  
THE PARENT LOW MEANS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED  
TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.  
 
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS KEY TO THE  
AMOUNT OF TIME THE HEAVIEST BANDING OF RAINFALL AND OVERALL  
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A MORE  
IMPACTFUL MODEL SOLUTION WOULD SEE 24 HR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR  
METLAKATLA AND KETCHIKAN REACHING UPWARDS OF 2.5 INCHES, WITH  
HEAVIEST RAIN RATES PROJECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. A LESS IMPACTFUL SOLUTION WOULD SEE  
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE WARNED AREA, DUE TO THE  
SYSTEM BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE PERIOD FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. EITHER WAY, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE  
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIVER AND STREAM  
RISES TO BANKFULL ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PUBLIC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...FERRIN  
LONG TERM....STJ  
AVIATION...GFS  
MARINE...FERRIN  
HYDROLOGY...STJ  
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab AK Page
Main Text Page