215
FXAK67 PAJK 040656
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1056 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATE
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS, WAVEHEIGHTS OFF
CAPE EDGECUMBE HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 FT, AND WE DROPPED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE. FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WE HAVE A
FEW LOCATIONS IN STEPHEN'S PASSAGE RUNNING CLOSE TO 20 KTS (ROCKY
ISLAND, SCULL ISLAND AND FIVE FINGERS LIGHT), BUT ALSO NOT ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MARINE UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
05/GARMON
AVIATION.../UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A WEAKENING OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH SE AK. OVERALL A
SHOWERY REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AS RAIN, HOWEVER, A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED
FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF PAJN, PAGS AND PAYA. FOR TERMINALS
AROUND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SNOW UNTIL LATER SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WHEN IT COMES TO
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. HOWEVER, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD/EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
400 PM APRIL 3 2026
UPDATE...FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS, WAVEHEIGHTS OFF
CAPE EDGECUMBE HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 FT, AND WE DROPPED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE. FOR THE INSIDE WATERS, WE HAVE A
FEW LOCATIONS IN STEPHEN'S PASSAGE RUNNING CLOSE TO 20 KTS (ROCKY
ISLAND, SCULL ISLAND AND FIVE FINGERS LIGHT), BUT ALSO NOT ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MARINE UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 358 PM AKDT FRI APR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN BUT REACHING TO THE GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL REGION
WITH RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
- RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH IT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT THAT PUSHING
THROUGH ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRYING TO REACH THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA LATE EVENING OR NEAR
MIDNIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE PANHANDLE IS
LIQUID, WITH SOME MIXED POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
REGION.
EXPECTED TO SEE THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. THAT START OF THE NEXT IMPULSE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE PANHANDLE. SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNT
THAT WOULD BE FLOODING CONCERNS STREAMS SHOULD HOLD THE RUN OFF OR
THE SNOW PACK WILL. NOT ANTICIPATING REALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO GUSTING TO A MAX OF 25 TO 30 KT AND WILL
WEAKEN A BIT MORE INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN WITH
THE WARMER ORIGIN OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MIXING IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DON'T LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH FOR PLACES NEAR
SEA LEVEL. AFTER THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE,
SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HEADED INTO MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF BRINGING A BREAK TO
THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS IS HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MARINE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF.
HEADED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 6 TO 10 DAYS OUT
WHILE 2 WEEKS OUT LOOK TO BE AROUND NEAR NORMAL ACCORDING CPC
OUTLOOK GUIDANCES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...THE WEAKENING FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING FOR LONGER FOR AREAS NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO NOT BE LIKELY UNTIL THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND YAKUTAT / NE GULF COASTLINE AS THE LOW
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR APART. SHOWERS
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THIS AREA BY AROUND 06Z. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL DROPS FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR / IFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH FROM S TO N TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME DROPS TO IFR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS THE NEXT MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER BAND MOVES THROUGH, WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY JUMP BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE NOW INTO THIS EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND COASTLINE BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE PUSHES N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS AGAIN DOWN TO LOW END MVFR / IFR AFTER AROUND 12Z.
LARGELY EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO BRING CIGS DOWN TO 800 TO 1500 FT
AS THEY PUSH THROUGH, WITH VIS BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM AT THE TIMES OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING IN. NO WIND CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME, ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES
OVER THE NE GULF COASTLINE AND AS THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS:
ONLY HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON, ARE RESIDUAL SEAS UP TO 8 FT IN THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT FRAME. LIGHTER WINDS TOPPING OUT AT 20 KT IN THE
WEAKENING GULF FLOW NOT SUPPORTING BIG SEA DEVELOPMENT SO THAT AND
THE RESIDUAL SWELLS INTO THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART LATE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW
AGAIN AND A WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK FEATURE NEAR MID WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS:
WINDS HAVE DECREASED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WEAKENING ALONG THE LOW IN THE GULF. FOR MOST PART WINDS 10 TO 20
KT, AND PRIMARILY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. EXPECT THE NORTH WINDS TO
OVERALL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS LOWER EXCEPT FOR ANYTHING THAT COMING THROUGH THE OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...BEZENEK
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