658
FXAK67 PAJK 242251
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
251 PM AKDT MON JUN 24 2019
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
HAIDA GWAII CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY YET PROVIDE SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MANY
LOCATIONS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SKIES OPENING UP WILL HELP TO PROMOTE A LARGER
DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY.
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK WINDS UP TO SCA IN
CROSS SOUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BASED ON KEEPING CONSISTENT, KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE IDEA OF NUDGING SLIGHTLY TO THE SREF AND NAMDNG FOR THE
POP AND CLOUDS AS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY / WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, CONTINUES TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
BEGINS BREAKING DOWN ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER MORE CONFUSED PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MADE FEW FORECAST CHANGES TO THE LATER TIME FRAMES WITH
THE INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENTS, OR
USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, TO TRY
AND STAY MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTING POINT.
A LITTLE MORE WORK WAS DONE LOWERING POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR THE BC INTERIOR UP TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE SHOWING LITTLE IN WAY OF RAINFALL
MAKING TO OR PAST THE COASTAL RANGE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
DID ALLOW THE TREND TO GO BACK THE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
A GLACIER DAM RELEASE IS OCCURRING INTO THE TAKU
RIVER. RIVER LEVELS BEGAN RISING ON SUNDAY, WHILE OTHER RIVERS
ALONG THE COAST MTNS WERE STEADY OR FALLING. THE RATE OF RISE
INCREASED SHARPLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, CONFIRMING THE GLOF. DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY EARLY TIME OF YEAR FOR THIS EVENT TO OCCUR, AND
BASED ON HISTORICAL CRESTS, THE RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF
ITS BANKS. INSTEAD IT WILL LIKELY NEAR BANKFULL, THEN FALL
SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. THOSE IN THE AREA OF TAKU
INLET SHOULD WATCH FOR EXTRA DEBRIS IN THE RIVER AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.
JDR/BEZENEK
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