460
FXAK67 PAJK 221302
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 AM AKST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS MOVING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO THE INNER CHANNELS.
AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
HAVE STARTED TO REPORT RAIN AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
AS THIS STORM ORIGINATING FROM FARTHER SOUTH, ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION
LOCATIONS AT ELEVATION WHICH COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF, ANOTHER FRONT WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
(ESSENTIALLY UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK) WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WITH SMALL BREAKS IN BETWEEN. WHETHER GOOD NEWS
OR BAD, PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR
THE SEA LEVEL AREAS, WITH UPPER ELEVATION ROADS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AT RISK OF SOME SNOW DEVELOPMENT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE A SYSTEM MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH,
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE QPF
FORECAST, AND MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST, MAINLY
TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN AREAS WHICH ARE SHELTERED TO A SE WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT SEES A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE,
BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FOG POTENTIAL. KEPT FOG CHANCES OVER
LAND AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER MARINE WATERS. IT MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP AS A LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD OF PROPER FOG.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEES A POSSIBLY MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY COMES
FROM ALOFT DIRECTING FLOW, WHICH SEEMS TO BE BIMODAL IN NATURE. THE
FIRST, MORE LIKELY SOLUTION AT AROUND 60%, SEES THE DIRECTING FLOW
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SECOND, DIRECTS THE ENERGY SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE AND TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. NAEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY HAS SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, AND EPS EFI GUIDANCE HAS ROUGHLY 60% CHANCE OF SEEING A
WIND GUST EVENT GREATER THAN 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WHILE
THIS IS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE MARINE AREAS, SUCH AS SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT AND DIXON ENTRANCE, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD. SIMILARLY FOR PRECIPITATION, THE MORE
LIKELY SOLUTION HAS HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AT AROUND 1.0-2.5 INCHES IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD.
AVIATION
FROM THE OVERNIGHT, THE JUNEAU AREA HAD SOME CLEARER
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WHICH ALLOWED FOR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AIRPORT, IN THE VALLEY, AND NEAR DOWNTOWN. REPORTS WERE DOWN TO
1/4SM AND A CIG OF 200 FEET.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE PANHANDLE, IT WAS A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH-END
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS.
GOING FORWARD, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF. AS IT DOES, IT WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EARLY THIS MORNING, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT PAKW AND PAKT. CIGS ARE DOWN TO 1500
FEET, AT WORST, AND VIS IS DOWN TO 3 MILES AT TIMES.
WEATHER LIKE THAT WILL TRACK NORTH, MAKING IT TO THE ICY STRAIT AREA
BY AROUND 1800Z SATURDAY. LLWS IS ALSO A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWING UP
AGAIN TODAY FOR MAINLY ICY STRAIT AND SOUTH AGAIN.
MARINE
A GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS TO THE INNER CHANNELS AS
WELL AS THE OUTER COAST WATERS. COMBINED SEAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF
LARGER SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. FOR THE
INNER CHANNELS, PASSAGES THAT ARE ORIENTED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH WILL
HAVE HIGHER SEAS WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH. EAST TO WEST WILL
HAVE LOWER SEAS BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SEAS,
ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES LIKE CROSS SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-053-642>644-651-652-
663-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF
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