331
FXAK67 PAJK 090540
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKDT SAT AUG 8 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z SET OF
TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 323 PM AKDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
-NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE CONTINUES TO FILL, AT THIS
TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULL SOMETIME AUGUST 10TH OR 11TH. IN
THE PAST, IT HAS TAKEN UP TO 6 DAYS FOR THE MAIN FLOODING EVENT
TO START AFTER THE BASIN IS FULL. VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/AJK/SUICIDEBASIN FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / AREAS OF CLOUDS STILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY THOUGH SEVERAL LARGE BREAKS ARE
VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE. THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING OVER THE JUNEAU AND
ICY STRAIT AREA FROM AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK
FRONT HAS MOSTLY MOVED W OUT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH UP TO 0.15 INCHES
MEASURED AT MOST. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART.
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AS
OVERALL FLOW REMAINS RATHER LIGHT, AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD STILL
BE OBSERVED ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HOWEVER, WHAT LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE IS IS STARTING TO TURN MORE OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY DO
TWO THINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS THAT IT MIGHT
START TO ENCOURAGE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO MORE SUNNY BREAKS MIGHT BE IN
THE WORKS. THE SECOND CONSIDERATION IS THAT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE BRINGING A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO WARM FROM AROUND 4 TO 5C
TODAY TO AROUND 7 TO 8C SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MEANS THAT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND COULD BE HIGHER IF AN AREA HAPPENS
TO BE IN ONE OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALSO MEANS THAT THE LOCAL SEA BREEZES COULD BE STRONGER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THEY MAY NOT EXCEED 15 KT OR SO.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE BECOMING
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN CANADA AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHTNING UP IN CANADA, BUT I AM CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. STILL HAVE A LEAST A
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND WHITE PASS AND HAINES
CUSTOMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
REMAINS FOR MAIN FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY
WITH A MEAN 24 HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 0.20” MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH 0.10” MORE LIKELY OVER LOCATIONS AT SEA
LEVEL. INTERMITTENT EASTERLY WAVES MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
REGIONS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE STRENGTHENS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AS
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS, CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DRIVE A WARMING TREND, SUPPORTED BY 850MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REACHING APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 5 DEG C ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) HIGHLIGHTS THIS
TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND BROADLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH SOME INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS
POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (80 DEG F) AS SKIES
CLEAR TOWARD THE WEEKEND. FINALLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH DIURNAL SEA BREEZES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
SHIFT TO WEAK WNW ONSHORE FLOW BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENT AS WE COOL OFF. SOME
POCKETS OF IFR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH WITH THE LOWERED
CEILINGS AND COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEARING FOR TOMORROW, SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE MID DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: A 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER
THE GULF, WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT IT WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
BROAD WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE NE GULF COAST DOWN TO
DIXON ENTRANCE. LOW CLOUDS AND MIST/PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 3 MILES ARE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO
EXCEED 15 KNOT SUSTAINED, NOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO EXCEED 4 FT THROUGH
MONDAY.
INSIDE: CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CALM, WITH WINDS GENERALLY NOT EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS. WITH A LACK OF
DRIVING FORCE FOR CHANGE, SEEING A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY WINDY SPOT BEING TAIYA INLET, WHICH
MAY REACH UP TO 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY...SUICIDE BASIN CONTINUES TO FILL TODAY. THERE WAS
ANOTHER CALVING EVENT OBSERVED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NOTED IN WATER LEVEL IN CAMERA IMAGES. THE
LASER GAGE IN THE BASIN CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASING
TREND DESPITE A 4 FT DROP IN THE DATA DURING THE CALVING EVENT
FROM SHIFTING ICE, AND WAVES. OVERALL MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
SAME OF EXPECTING THE BASIN TO BE FULL MOST LIKELY AROUND AUGUST
10TH OR 11TH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC
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