453
FXAK67 PAJK 231809 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS ON-SHORE FLOW AND BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S. LAND WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. SOUTHERLY MARITIME
WINDS ACROSS LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST EXPECTED AROUND 15 TO 20KTS.
AVIATION.../18Z SATURDAY UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY/...
CERTAINLY, A LOW START TO THE MORNING WITH MANY SITES ALONG THE
COAST AND SOUTH REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS NEAR 2000 FT
TO 3000 FT AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION; HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN AT TIMES. ONE WORD OF CAUTION IS WE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL NEAR KETCHIKAN NEAR 0840 LOCAL SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL COULD BE PRESENT
UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWER, FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
SUNDAY A LARGE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS WILL BE MVFR RAIN AND LLWS FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDABURG,
KETCHIKAN, AND METLAKATLA. ANTICIPATE LLWS OF ABOUT 30 TO 40 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE 00Z TAF PRODUCTS BEGINNING TO CAPTURE THIS
THREAT MORE ACCURATELY.
FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, EXPECTING SOME EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 2000 FT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 542AM SAT MAY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRING MORE
RAIN SUNDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE REMAINS DRY.
- MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY, WITH CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...LINGERING, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PUSHING
INLAND OVERNIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. CALM WINDS MAY START TO PICK UP TO 15 KTS OR
LESS ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. ONLY
LIGHT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS THEY PASS OVER. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH.
A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING INLAND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN WILL BE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, ANNETTE
ISLAND, AND KETCHIKAN, BUT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE
SOUTHWARD OF SITKA TO PETERSBURG. BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SUNDAY, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE AND
DIXON THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CHANNELS, MAINLY NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE HELP OF SEA BREEZES. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE WILL STEADILY DRY OUT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOLLOWING SUIT BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD INTO MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SEE THE LONG TERM
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM...AS THE LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
MONDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
SEE SOME CLEARER SKIES, DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 60 DEGREE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW SETS
UP FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS NICER WEATHER WILL LAST UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING, AS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA BRINGS A
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING WITH THE NE OUTER COASTLINE AND MOVING INLAND
AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COASTLINE AND SOME N-S INNER
CHANNELS, BUT MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CALMER AND
PREDOMINANTLY BELOW 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POW SEEING SOME
10 TO 15 KT WESTERLY WINDS AS RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FOLLOWING THIS LOW. THE WINDS WILL STAY DIMINISHED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN COASTLINE PRIMARILY, BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN INTO LATE WEEK.
MARINE... INSIDE WATERS (INNER CHANNELS): AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY, RIDGING HAS BUILT-IN, & THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
TO 15 KT OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 3 FT OR LESS WITH A MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, PRIMARILY EXPECT WINDS OF LESS THAN 20
KT & SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND & THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CLARENCE
STRAIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 TO 35 KT WILL FUNNEL
INTO THAT AREA FROM THE HECATE STRAIT / DIXON ENTRANCE AREA FROM A
STRONG LOW PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GULF &
PANHANDLE.
OUTSIDE WATERS (EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA): THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, RIDGING HAS BUILT-IN, & THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED, CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE TO 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BETWEEN 6 & 9 FT WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FOR THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 -
35 KT FOR THE SE GULF, SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, & AREAS AROUND
THE DIXON ENTRANCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHES SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE, INCREASING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 9 &
14 FT OVER THAT AREA FOR THAT TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST VALES THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-036-642>644-663-664-671.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...JLC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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