001
FXAK67 PAJK 141336
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKDT WED APR 14 2021
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A GALE FORCE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IS TRACKING NORTH AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS DRENCHING THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
YAKUTAT RECORDED 1.28 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND, SINCE
MIDNIGHT, HAS SEEN AN ADDITIONAL 0.65 INCHES AS OF THIS WRITING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE EXCESS PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED THE
ACCUMULATED YAKUTAT PRECIPITATION DEFICIT, (SINCE JANUARY 1ST),
TO LESS THAN 1 FOOT. AT THE JUNEAU AIRPORT, A DAILY RECORD WAS SET
YESTERDAY WITH 0.64 INCHES RECORDED. OTHER CO-OP SITES MAY COME
IN WITH RECORD PRECIPITATION AS WELL, BUT THOSE NUMBERS WILL NOT
BE IN UNTIL LATER TODAY. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS IS THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE, NO
SNOW WAS REPORTED OVERNIGHT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THERE ARE
RELIABLE OBSERVATIONS...JUST RAIN. AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS NORTH
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT. BASED ON HOW THE FRONT IS ORIENTED, DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEGINNING TODAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. NORTH OF
THERE, PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH STEADILY BEGINNING LATER TODAY,
BUT RELIABLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL NOT
ENSUE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LONG AWAITED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TODAY COURTESY OF THE SAME FRONT THAT IS PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. IF
THINGS REMAIN AS FORECAST, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL FINALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES TODAY WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPANDING NORTH TO FREDERICK SOUND ON THURSDAY. THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST AS WELL.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST IS - JUST HOW WARM WILL THE PANHANDLE GET THIS
WEEKEND?
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO, AT LEAST, THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH WARM AIR AND CLEARER SKIES
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
AND WHEN I SAY WARM AIR, I MEAN NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LOW TO MID 60S ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTH IS LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD 50S.
ONE VARIABLE THAT WOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS IN THE NORTH IS THE
SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND. THERE ARE STILL MANY AREAS WITH A PRETTY
DEEP SNOWPACK. HERE IN JUNEAU, WE MEASURED 19 INCHES OF SNOW AT
THE OFFICE IN THE BACK OF THE VALLEY WHILE THE AIRPORT IS
REPORTING 0 INCHES OF SNOW. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPS CAN STILL WARM
NICELY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK. HYDER IS REPORTING 36 INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND THEY WERE STILL ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S ON
TUESDAY.
THE WARM TEMPS WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BUT TUESDAY AND ON IS LOOKING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S TO 50S AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
AS FAR AS WIND THIS WEEKEND, THEY ARE LOOKING OVERALL ON THE
CALMER SIDE FOR MOST. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
WINDS NEARING 25 KTS THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. BUT OTHER AREAS ARE LOOKING AT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-053.
FCF/GJS
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