198
FXAK67 PAJK 230631 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1031 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z MONDAY/
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT CONTINUE
TO BRING CIGS OF AROUND 1500 FT TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS
OF 00Z. A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE HOWEVER IS STILL SEEING VFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH OVERCAST. OVERNIGHT, LOW
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
AROUND 3000 FT AND LOWER SCATTERED LAYERS CONTINUING TO FILTER
THROUGH. SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DROPPING
YAKUTAT DOWN TO IFR BRIEFLY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN BOTH VIS
AND CIGS BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO VFR.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, STARTING AROUND 12Z, CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECLINE IN EARNEST AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT
WILL PARTICULARLY BE RAMPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 00Z
MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AS
THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF VIS
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 700 FT. THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
GOOD CONDITIONS UP NORTH WILL BE YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
WHICH COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
CIGS, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BLOWING UP
THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, SO KETCHIKAN WILL MOST LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OTHER LOCATIONS UP NORTH MAY SEE SOME BLUE
SKIES PEAKING OUT AND SEA BREEZES INCREASING AFTER THE FRONT, BUT
THESE WOULD LIKELY BE WEAK AND SHOWERS MAY STILL BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
402 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED A THIS
TIME.
- CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN, AND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND ICY
STRAIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...
SOMEWHAT IMPACTFUL SHORT TERM FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. A SURFACE LOW DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT, MOVING NEAR THE EASTERN GULF BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MERGE
INTO A TRIPLE POINT OFFSHORE OF POINT ALEXANDER, WITH THE WARM
SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHOOT TO WELL OVER 10000 FT, AND WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ELEVATING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO GREATER THAN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN RATES DURING THE PEAK COULD
EXCEED 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA, AND 0.4
INCHES PER HOUR FOR MISTY FJORDS AND AT ELEVATION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, FOR BOTH HOW FAR THE RAIN WILL
EXTEND NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN.
THERE ARE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING AND
STRENGTHENING DOWN FURTHER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR MISTY FJORDS, BUT BRING KETCHIKAN AND
METLAKATLA OUT OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN. FURTHERMORE, THE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, THOUGH STRONGER SOLUTIONS WILL BUILD HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN. KEPT CHANCES AROUND 60-70% FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
30-40% FOR THE JUNEAU AREA. HAINES AND SKAGWAY LOOK TO AVOID THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CAUSING
DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
DIP BELOW THE UPPER 40S FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM.
WHILE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, ELEVATED CAPE
AND SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD LEAD TO SOME EXTREMELY
ISOLATED, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELIHOOD IS LESS THAN 5% AT
THIS TIME, BUT STRONG LIFT FROM DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TERRAIN
COULD PUSH PARCELS WELL ABOVE -20C AND INTO LIGHTNING TERRITORY.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA, CARRYING A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WITH
IT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BREAK APART FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, LEAVING A SHORT AND WELCOME BREAK TUESDAY.
UPSTREAM, ZONAL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF,
WITH A SIGNAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARRY WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA; HOWEVER, DEEP MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLE, LIMITING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO MID WEEK. ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS AND MORE
TYPICAL RAINFALL, WITH THE FARTHEST REACHES OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LIKELY ENJOYING DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK ENSEMBLES SHOW AGREEMENT ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND ELEVATED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG OUR COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z MONDAY/...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UP AND
DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO BC. A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE IS NOW SEEING VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE BROKEN NATURE OF
THE CIGS, THOUGH THE OCCASIONAL DIPS TO MVFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING. KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
CURRENTLY BRINGING VIS DOWN TO 3 SM IN KETCHIKAN. OVERNIGHT, LOW
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CIGS SITTING AROUND
3000 FT AND LOW SCATTERED LAYERS CONTINUING TO FILTER THROUGH.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, STARTING AROUND 12Z, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECLINE AGAIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE, BUT WILL PARTICULARLY BE RAMPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD. CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR AS THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF VIS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 700 FT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BLOWING UP THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT WILL BE THE
STRONGEST AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO KETCHIKAN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OTHER
LOCATIONS UP NORTH MAY SEE SOME BLUE SKIES PEAKING OUT AND SEA
BREEZES INCREASING AFTER THE FRONT, BUT SHOWERS MAY STILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING, AFFECTING OCEAN
ENTRANCES AND NORTHERN OUTER GULF ZONES, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE
SPENCER TO CAPE SUCKLING. A WEAK BARRIER JET ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-15 KNOTS. FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WINDS AROUND THE DIXON ENTRANCE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, PUSHING SEAS
TO 8 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL EASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS
SUBSIDE AND TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
INNER CHANNELS: DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE, WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
STRENGTHEN TO 15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT ELEVATED WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CLARENCE STRAIT TO SUMNER
STRAIT REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND LATE MONDAY MORNING, WITH
CLARENCE STRAIT SEEING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES, WITH THE NAM FAVORING A
SLOWER, STRONGER SYSTEM THAT PUSHES HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NORTHWARD
INTO FREDERICK SOUND, WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD. SEAS IN
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FEET DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
UPDATE...STJ
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BAS
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