300
FXAK67 PAJK 020531
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
931 PM AKDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A BIT OF A STRONGER
MARINE PUSH INTO THE INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING AS FRONT SHIFTS
OUT OF SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO EASTERN GULF.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS
EVENING AND CAPE DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
HOWEVER MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF.
-MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
MONDAY. NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
-HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL NO MAJOR WEATHER
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE TO AVIATION AND MARINE INTERESTS FROM FOG AND THE LOW
CLOUD DECK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC PULLS EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THAT DRIER AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT A DAILY RHYTHM TO THE
CLOUDS, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REBUILD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED SPOTS NEAR YAKUTAT AND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
THEN DAYTIME HEATING BURNS THE SHALLOW LAYER OFF ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REDEVELOPS THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE PARKED IN THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW STAYS ONSHORE AND KEEPS FEEDING MOISTURE OFF THE WATER,
SO SOME CLOUDS HANG AROUND EVEN DURING THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY. EVEN SO, SPOTS THAT BREAK OUT WILL WARM WELL, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST IN THE BERING, A STRONG LOW
PUSHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, SENDING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER THE TOP OF THIS PARKED RIDGE.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING YAKUTAT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
INCLUDING JUNEAU, BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MID WEEK. ANY
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN 0.10"
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
MARINE LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY THE PVA WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN (MORE LIKELY
DRIZZLE) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST AND INTO THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THE RIDGE WILL PERIODICALLY FLATTEN SOME
(DIRTY RIDGE) AND ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO STREAM IN, NAMELY FOR
THE YAKUTAT AREA. MEANWHILE, AREAS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS (CHATHAM STRAIT TO CLARENCE STRAIT) WILL HAVE NWLY
(DOWNSLOPE) FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MAJORITY OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
MOST MODELS WERE IN LOCK-STEP TODAY ON KEEPING THE RIDGE OFFSHORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK AND SHARPER AS WELL. THE GFS REPRESENTED THESE
WIND DIRECTIONS WELL WITH NWLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO DIXON ENTRANCE AS WELL AS STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS. THESE SPEEDS WERE RAISED IN THE FORECAST TO ABOUT 15-
20KT, BUT SOME AREAS OF 25KT ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF CAPE
DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE AND WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/
MARINE LAYER BUILDING BACK
IN TONIGHT AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. FOR SITES ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND PAGS AND PAPG, CIGS DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH VIS REDUCTIONS. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PAKW
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS SUNDAY AS
STRATUS LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SITES NOT CLEARING OUT AND REMAINING MVFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KT, ALTHOUGH THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN BRING WINDS 15 TO
20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR PAGY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
CLASSIC SUMMER DAY OUT AND ABOUT THIS SATURDAY, WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GULF, BRINGING A LOW MARINE LAYER TO
MUCH OF THE COAST. CURRENT SITREP AS OF 1400 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IS NW WINDS OF MODERATE BREEZES. SEA STATE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED
BY SOUTHERLY SWELL 15 SECONDS AT 3 FT, WITH A NW WIND WAVE ON TOP.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES OUT OF THE NW BURYING THE
SOUTHERLY SWELL, DRIVING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF
THE COAST, WITH NW WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. SOUTHERLY
SWELL DOMINATES OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND WAVES ONCE AGAIN BURYING THE
SOUTHERLY SWELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT CONTINUE.
INSIDE:
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS SEA BREEZES OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES IMPACTING FAVORED AREAS (LIKE ICY STRAIT, NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL ETC.) IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND
ALSO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD LAYERS ALONG THE COAST. IF MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WE COULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN
FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT. IF YOU WAKE UP SUNDAY AND YOU
ARE SOCKED IN WITH FOG, IT WILL CLEAR BY 0900-1100 AKDT SUNDAY
MORNING.
SEA BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ICY STRAIT AND
LYNN CANAL BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS
PLANNING TO OPERATE THROUGH BOTH INIAN PASSES IN WESTERN ICY
STRAIT SHOULD BE AWARE OF HIGHER THAN FORECASTED SEAS, AS WESTERLY
WIND COLLIDE WITH THE OUTGOING TIDE. OUR MARINE WAVE FORECAST
DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE COMBINED TIDE/WIND IMPACTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-641.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...FERRIN
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
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