422
FXAK67 PAJK 301805 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 AM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AVIATION UPDATE
FOR THE LATE MORNING AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE,
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF FORECASTS. GENERALLY,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AROUND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. MVFR
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, WE EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS (ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ELFIN COVE TO JUNEAU LINE).
WE EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TO
COME LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 404 AM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...AS OF 0400 SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE,
EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY, EXPANDING IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. AS SWELLING CUMULUS BEGIN TO FLOURISH THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST, BRINGING
A BREEZY DAY. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND. EITHER WAY, EXPECT A BREEZY DAY AND A FEW
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRAH OF RAIN, FOR NOW,
AS AN EXTENSIVE LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF DRIVING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS BY EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT WARM AND DRY TO PERSIST
INTO THE START OF THIS COMING WEEK.
LONG TERM...
/MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE GROWS AS
NEXT WEEK APPROACHES THAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SWEEP THE PANHANDLE. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES
IN HIGH AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE OVER 65
DEGREE TEMPS. THE AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 70 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO SIT AROUND 60%, BUT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THIS NUMBER INCREASE AS THE DAYS GO ON. IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WE ARE SEEING THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOVE 65 SIT AROUND 60%, BUT AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH
TIME. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THAT ARE DUE TO LOCAL INFLUENCES
NOT WELL RESOLVED ON MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY TO ENTIRELY CLEAR WHICH CAN
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE SUN CAN HEAT THE AIR, RAISING THE
TEMPERATURE.
DUE TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND
THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF, THERE ARE BREEZY WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY, ICY STRAIT AND LYNN
CANAL, BEING IMPACTED BY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO, TYPICALLY SEA BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING.
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF
AND BREAK APART BEFORE BRINGING ANY MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BEGIN SEEING
SHOWERS AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING BRINGING DECREASING CEILINGS AS WELL AS DECREASED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THESE SHOWERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE DAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AS WE
START TO SEE MORE QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
ACROSS THE COAST, 06Z ASCAT WIND PASSES SHOWING ESE WINDS OF
GENTLE BREEZES. SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY SW SWELL OF
4 TO 6 FT AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. RIDING ON TOP OF THIS SWELL IS SOME
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. MOVING THROUGH THE DAY SW SWELL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DECAY AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF FRESH BREEZES DRIVE SOME
FRESH SEA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM
TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, 4 TO 5 FT AND PERIOD SHIFTING TO 8 TO 10
SECONDS. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE A BREEZY DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THERE EXISTS A 15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG COASTAL WATERS NEAR PRINCE OF WALES. PRIMARY THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS BRIEF PERIODS OF ERRATIC GUSTS TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE.
MONDAY A BROAD LOW WILL STALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, DRIVING
EASTERLY WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS WITH NEAR-
GALES LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO STRONG BREEZES, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
NEAR-GALE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LONG FETCH OF CHATHAM STRAIT. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, SO ANTICIPATE
A WETTER DAY THAN WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WE
COULD SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTS REACH
NEAR-GALES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...PARK
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...FIELDING
MARINE...PARK
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