398
FXAK67 PAJK 251321
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
521 AM AKDT MON OCT 25 2021
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT / DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. MID TO HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES COVERS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PATCHY FOG
HAS FORMED, AND WHERE THE FOG HAS NOT FORMED, TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND A LOW
WILL APPROACH THE PRINCE OF WALES REGION OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THIS LOW APPROACHING AND SPREADING LIGHT
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MOISTURE AND IMPULSE BEING
ROTATED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION FROM A LOW SOUTHWEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND, THIS IS PUSHING RAIN AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT TO JUNEAU
LINE. 20 TO 50 POP VALUES WILL PUSH NORTH TO HAINES/SKAGWAY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS FROM CONTINUED WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS FLOWING FROM SKAGWAY
INTO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING/MIDDAY
TIME RANGE. WHEN THE NEW LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
LOCATION, WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA COASTAL WATERS, EXPECT SMALL CRAFTS TO MOVE IN BY SUNRISE
OVER THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST GULF. SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25
KT ARE LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CLARENCE STRAIT AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWEST OF KLUKWAN ON HAINES HIGHWAY OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY / THE
LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT AREA OF
FOCUS, AS A DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF SLOWLY PUSHES N. THIS LOW
WILL BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS IN
THE N PANHANDLE AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED
IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS TO SEE SNOW FLAKES,
MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
LIKELY SYMPTOMATIC OF THE ISSUES OVER THE STRENGTH OF ANTICIPATED
S FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL 850 MB
TEMPERATURES, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO TURN THE CHANCE OF SOME
SNOW FLAKES FALLING INTO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS SEEING A MIX, THOUGH DO SUSPECT THAT THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL.
FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WAVE ENTER THE AREA. WHILE
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A FINAL WAVE MAY TRY TO ENTER SE AK
OVER THE WEEKEND, ADVANCING AHEAD OF A NEW SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN
THE W GULF, DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS LEADS US INTO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT HALLOWEEN WILL
BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE ALIKE HAVE BOTH BEGUN
PUSHING THE TIMING OF A POSSIBLE SYSTEM BACK FURTHER AND FURTHER.
MANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE EVEN GONE SO FAR AS TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA ENTIRELY, INSTEAD FAVORING ANOTHER
SYSTEM TRYING TO REACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECASTING CHALLENGE -
THE IMPACT OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT - IT DOES SIGNAL INCREASING CHANCES THAT
HALLOWEEN PROPER WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR MANY AREAS.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE YAKUTAT, SHOULD THE
EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM SUCCESSFULLY ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH W.
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER AREA OF NOTE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER SUN ANGLES AND CLEARER SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE NIPPY CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN,
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.
BEZENEK/GFS
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