398  
FXAK67 PAJK 251321  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
521 AM AKDT MON OCT 25 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT / DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR  
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. MID TO HIGH-  
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
PANHANDLE. A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES COVERS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE  
THIS MORNING. UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PATCHY FOG  
HAS FORMED, AND WHERE THE FOG HAS NOT FORMED, TEMPERATURES HAVE  
COOLED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND A LOW  
WILL APPROACH THE PRINCE OF WALES REGION OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THIS LOW APPROACHING AND SPREADING LIGHT  
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MOISTURE AND IMPULSE BEING  
ROTATED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION FROM A LOW SOUTHWEST OF  
VANCOUVER ISLAND, THIS IS PUSHING RAIN AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD  
THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT TO JUNEAU  
LINE. 20 TO 50 POP VALUES WILL PUSH NORTH TO HAINES/SKAGWAY  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS FROM CONTINUED WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS FLOWING FROM SKAGWAY  
INTO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING/MIDDAY  
TIME RANGE. WHEN THE NEW LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE  
LOCATION, WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
ALASKA COASTAL WATERS, EXPECT SMALL CRAFTS TO MOVE IN BY SUNRISE  
OVER THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST GULF. SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25  
KT ARE LIKELY TUESDAY FOR THE CLARENCE STRAIT AREA.  
 
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR  
NORTHWEST OF KLUKWAN ON HAINES HIGHWAY OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY / THE  
LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT AREA OF  
FOCUS, AS A DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF SLOWLY PUSHES N. THIS LOW  
WILL BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS IN  
THE N PANHANDLE AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED  
IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE  
FORECAST. WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES  
COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS TO SEE SNOW FLAKES,  
MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS  
LIKELY SYMPTOMATIC OF THE ISSUES OVER THE STRENGTH OF ANTICIPATED  
S FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO TURN THE CHANCE OF SOME  
SNOW FLAKES FALLING INTO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL. FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF  
SOME AREAS SEEING A MIX, THOUGH DO SUSPECT THAT THE HAINES AND  
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR  
SNOWFALL.  
 
FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WAVE ENTER THE AREA. WHILE  
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A FINAL WAVE MAY TRY TO ENTER SE AK  
OVER THE WEEKEND, ADVANCING AHEAD OF A NEW SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN  
THE W GULF, DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME INCREASING  
OFFSHORE FLOW.  
 
THIS LEADS US INTO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT HALLOWEEN WILL  
BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE ALIKE HAVE BOTH BEGUN  
PUSHING THE TIMING OF A POSSIBLE SYSTEM BACK FURTHER AND FURTHER.  
MANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE EVEN GONE SO FAR AS TO  
KEEP THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA ENTIRELY, INSTEAD FAVORING ANOTHER  
SYSTEM TRYING TO REACH THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECASTING CHALLENGE -  
THE IMPACT OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON SYSTEMS CAN BE NOTORIOUSLY  
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT - IT DOES SIGNAL INCREASING CHANCES THAT  
HALLOWEEN PROPER WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR MANY AREAS.  
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE YAKUTAT, SHOULD THE  
EARLIER MENTIONED SYSTEM SUCCESSFULLY ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH W.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER AREA OF NOTE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE  
TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER SUN ANGLES AND CLEARER SKIES ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE NIPPY CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN,  
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE  
IS AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PUBLIC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.  
 

 
 

 
 
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