144  
FXAK67 PAJK 302247  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
247 PM AKDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
OVERALL, SOUTHEAST ALASKA  
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE GULF WITH  
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT, MOVING TOWARD  
THE PANHANDLE. THESE WILL BRING WITH THEM INCREASED CLOUDINESS &  
ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN  
DISTURBANCES UNTIL AROUND NOON TOMORROW WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE  
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED,  
THEY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
SOME AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING SOME ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON THAT RECEIVED ENOUGH SUNSHINE/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS &  
WARMED UP ENOUGH. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND/  
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ON-  
AND-OFF RAIN CHANCES.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
-CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON TEMPS.  
-ON/OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
-RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  
-POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
DETAILS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH THE  
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SWING WAVES OF RAIN FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING ON/OFF  
RAIN TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL THAT  
MUCH THOUGH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE AVERAGING 24 HOUR AMOUNTS  
TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH, LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.  
THE 75TH PERCENTILE GETS UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR PARTS OF THE  
NORTH.  
 
SO, EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ISN'T A LOT BY  
SOUTHEAST ALASKA STANDARDS. SO WHILE YES, RAIN IS IN THE DAILY  
FORECAST, IT'S NOT MUCH.  
 
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO PLAY OUT A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GUIDANCE HAS  
REALLY PULLED BACK ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. KEPT "CHANCE  
RAIN" FOR ALONG THE COAST AND "SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN" FOR PARTS OF  
THE INNER CHANNELS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.  
 
AS FAR AS THE NEXT LOW GOES, MODELS SEEM TO BE NARROWING DOWN ON THE  
SOLUTION THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING THE HEAVIER  
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WOULD  
SEE LIGHT RAIN, IF ANY RAIN AT ALL. SO FAR, THE GFS ENS AND EURO  
ENS MEANS ARE SIMULATING 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON SUNDAY  
WITH ANOTHER .75 TO 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY. AND AGAIN, THE EURO IS  
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS (90TH  
PERCENTILE) ARE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS.  
 
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH  
MODELS AVERAGING AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILES  
UPWARDS OF 1/2 INCH. SO YES, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN, IF ANY, IS MORE  
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IF THIS SOUTHERN TRACK  
PANS OUT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
CEILINGS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. SOME AREAS, MAINLY NEAR THE CENTRAL TO  
NE PANHANDLE, CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT. SITKA HAS  
CONTINUED TO SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT  
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM AT TIMES.  
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FOR  
THOSE AREAS TO 2500 FT OR ABOVE. AREAS FARTHER EAST, AWAY FROM  
THE GULF COAST, HAVE SEEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR CEILINGS  
AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, CEILINGS  
AND VISIBILITIES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR WITH  
TIMES OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
INSIDE WATERS: A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT  
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL MAINLY KEEP WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR  
LESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE  
STRAIT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AT BIT AS THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC  
DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. THE SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN FOR  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO  
10 KT OR LESS, ONCE AGAIN. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 FT OR LESS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT  
AROUND THE WEAK MEANDERING LOW IN THE GULF WILL CAUSE  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN AROUND 10 & 20 KT INTO THE WEEKEND.  
PEAK SEAS OF UP TO AROUND 6 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PUBLIC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...JLC  
LONG TERM....GJS  
AVIATION...EAB  
MARINE...JLC  
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
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