684
FXAK67 PAJK 202330
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE DUE TO A
MARINE LAYER.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
MARINE LAYER ENCROACHES FURTHER INTO THE OUTER COAST AND CROSS
SOUND/ICY STRAIT.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
KETCHIKAN-WRANGELL LINE REMAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RIDGE IS
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A PERSISTENT
MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD WINDS WILL SHIFT JUST ENOUGH FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO MAKE
ITS WAY FURTHER INTO THE INNER CHANNELS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
DURING THE 'OVERNIGHT' TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ENOUGH
THAT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE.
WITH THIS MORE PREVALENT MARINE LAYER ALONGSIDE THE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS
EXPERIENCED TODAY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING OVER THE GULF
AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW. BY MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IS
LIKELY GOING TO SEE INCREASING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BY THE TIME THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW SE OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL HAVE FULLY
DEVELOPED, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY SE AK. WITH MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER AREAS NORTH OF PETERSBURG LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY CLOUDIER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE DEVELOPED LOW
IN THE WESTERN GULF CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THIS LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY, WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION DIRECTED
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF, ENABLING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EVEN AS
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON IT STAYING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRINGING LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.15 INCHES IN 24 HOURSFOR
THE NE GULF COAST AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR).
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, THOUGH THE
LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE
IS MAKING IT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR A STRONGER
LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII INTO
THE EASTERN GULF, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE EC AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO
FAVOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING MORE INTO THE PACIFIC AND KEEPING
THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTHWARD, RATHER THAN MOVING INTO OUR
COASTLINE, AND LIKEWISE LIMITING HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CLUSTERS REMAIN RATHER SPLIT BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS, WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST
BEING IN BETWEEN, WITH THE LOW STAYING NEAR HAIDA GWAII AND
SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN INTO THE PANHANDLE OR BYPASSING IT ENTIRELY
LIKE THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF SET WAS BASED ON PERSISTANCE FROM
CONDITIONS SEEN OVERNIGHT AND TODAY. THE LOW MARINE LAYER ALONG
THE COAST HAS RETREATED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND 16Z TO 17Z AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY 17Z TO 18Z. THIS LINGERED IN SITKA FOR A FEW EXTRA
HOURS, THOUGH THINNING OUT BY 19Z. THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA WAS
YAKUTAT, STAYING IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING AND MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MARINE LAYER SITTING AROUND 1000 FT. FROM
AROUND 13 TO 16Z, CONDITIONS DROPPED TO LIFR WITH CIGS AROUND 300
FT AND RESTRICTED VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH BACK IN TONIGHT AROUND 6Z TO 9Z ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
MAKING IT INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS MARINE LAYER MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO JUNEAU THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING, THOUGH IT SHOULD RETREAT BY 18Z. THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW THIN
AREAS OF CLOUDS LINGERING BY 18Z, AND THE REST WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS OF THE TAF FORECAST IS THE WIND SWITCHES, AS
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER THE SUN SETS. WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL SWITCH TO A SEA BREEZE
DIRECTION AROUND 16Z, AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES, BRINGING A SWATH OF
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ALONG THE COAST AND 8 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THE CENTRAL GULF IS SEEING
SOUTHEASTERLY GENTLE BREEZES ON THE FAR SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WHICH
WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. AS RIDGING SHIFTS,
THE STRONGER WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. 4 TO 5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TAKE
OVER, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 3 FT SWELL AT A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS.
ANOTHER SWATH OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH ASSOCIATED 6 TO 7 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SATURDAY, ENHANCED BY DAYTIME SEA
BREEZING. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE TYPICAL HOT
SPOTS OVERNIGHT. CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT ARE SEEING FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AROUND POINT
COUVERDEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GOING UP THROUGH LYNN CANAL, BUT
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN TAIYA INLET. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS
SEEING NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES INCREASE THROUGH NORTHERN
STEPHENS PASSAGE, DOWN CHATHAM STRAIT, AND DOWN CLARENCE STRAIT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND POINT GARDNER AND
CAPE DECISION THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SIMILAR
PATTERN. 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
CHANNELS, WITH AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS SEEING 3 TO 4 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319-328-
330>332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-641-642-661-662.
SHORT TERM...BUTWIN
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...ZTK
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