557
FXAK67 PAJK 040100
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE FRONTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE CURRENT FRONT MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE
- THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BY TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION.
- A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WARD LAKE AREA DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MINOR FLOODING. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP
BELOW MINOR FLOODING, THE STAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THE
INCOMING RAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH SIMILAR MESSAGES
GOING FORWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PASSING NEAR THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WITH ENERGY MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE YUKON. BEHIND THE FRONT, CURRENTLY NICELY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE,
IS A SOCKET OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. PULLED BACK
SOMEWHAT FROM THE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE DURATION BETWEEN
FRONTAL PASSAGES HAS SHORTENED. WHILE STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT, THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY 10 PM TONIGHT. WITH THE SECOND FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD,
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER'S MOISTURE FEED, CURRENTLY POINTED AT HAIDA
GWAII, IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVED BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OF RAIN, IS EXPECTED. THIS ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO FURTHER
FUEL THE MINOR FLOODING IN WARD LAKE.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER, WARM ONSHORE
FLOW, AND WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE THE
THEME. TOUCHING ON PRECIPITATION FIRST, 850MB TEMPERATURES
(TEMPERATURES NEAR 5000 FT) CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE UPPER 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY AT ANNETTE ISLAND, TRANSLATING
SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 2000 FT MOST THE REGION, PERHAPS A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER SECTIONS OF THE HAINES/SKAGWAY HIGHWAYS IF
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, LIGHT AND
SCATTERED RAINFALL THURSDAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY, WITH
24 HOURS AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW 3 INCHES.
REGARDING WINDS, THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES CONTINUE IN THE GULF, WITH SOUTHERLY SEAS NEAR 11 TO 14
FT AND A PERIOD NEAR 8 TO 11 SECONDS. ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL
TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING ALONG OUR COAST FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE, FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WOULD INCREASE TO SOUTH
EASTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ALONG OUR
COAST, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS INCREASING TO
STRONG BREEZES; HIGHEST WINDS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND AND OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. WHILE OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE CONDITIONS
LISTED ABOVE, NBM PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT A 10% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT, REVILLA, AND NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/ FLYING CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH
STARTING OFF ON THE UNFAVORABLE SIDE, WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE MORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LLWS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ONWARDS WITH LLWS
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING. THAT BEING SAID, THIS BRIEF LULL
WILL SEE FOG AND LOW CIGS/VIS DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SE AK. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH, TEMPORARILY ENDING
THE FOG BUT BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS AND RAIN TO THE
PANHANDLE. LLWS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGEST FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AFTER THIS NEXT SYSTEM, FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: ONGOING SOUTHERLY FRESH BREEZES IN THE OUTER WATERS
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND SHIFT EASTERLY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTH. SIMILAR STORY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO 14-17 FT DOWN FROM AROUND 25 FT. EXPECTING
TO SEE THE NEXT FRONT BE LARGELY EASTERLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY
FAST, WITH NO AREAS SEEING GALES FOR LONGER THAN A 3-4 HOUR
PERIOD.
INSIDE WATERS: A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF FRESH BREEZES IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH LYNN CANAL. NOT EXPECTING THESE BREEZES
TO LAST, AS THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE,
EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING TO SEE LARGELY EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, FOLLOWED BY FRESH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-644-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-033>035-053-641>643-651-652-
661>663-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...NC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page