658  
FXAK67 PAJK 242251  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
251 PM AKDT MON JUN 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF  
HAIDA GWAII CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.  
AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY YET PROVIDE SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND  
FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RIDGING BUILDING  
INTO THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MANY  
LOCATIONS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS  
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SKIES OPENING UP WILL HELP TO PROMOTE A LARGER  
DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE  
RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY.  
 
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS. AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF  
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK WINDS UP TO SCA IN  
CROSS SOUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
BASED ON KEEPING CONSISTENT, KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
PACKAGE IDEA OF NUDGING SLIGHTLY TO THE SREF AND NAMDNG FOR THE  
POP AND CLOUDS AS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A  
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
/ WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY / WE HAVE  
BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST  
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, CONTINUES TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AND  
BEGINS BREAKING DOWN ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER MORE CONFUSED PATTERN  
OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. MADE FEW FORECAST CHANGES TO THE LATER TIME FRAMES WITH  
THE INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENTS, OR  
USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, TO TRY  
AND STAY MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTING POINT.  
 
A LITTLE MORE WORK WAS DONE LOWERING POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT OR LESS  
FOR THE BC INTERIOR UP TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY TO  
THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE SHOWING LITTLE IN WAY OF RAINFALL  
MAKING TO OR PAST THE COASTAL RANGE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  
DID ALLOW THE TREND TO GO BACK THE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
A GLACIER DAM RELEASE IS OCCURRING INTO THE TAKU  
RIVER. RIVER LEVELS BEGAN RISING ON SUNDAY, WHILE OTHER RIVERS  
ALONG THE COAST MTNS WERE STEADY OR FALLING. THE RATE OF RISE  
INCREASED SHARPLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, CONFIRMING THE GLOF. DUE  
TO THE RELATIVELY EARLY TIME OF YEAR FOR THIS EVENT TO OCCUR, AND  
BASED ON HISTORICAL CRESTS, THE RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF  
ITS BANKS. INSTEAD IT WILL LIKELY NEAR BANKFULL, THEN FALL  
SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. THOSE IN THE AREA OF TAKU  
INLET SHOULD WATCH FOR EXTRA DEBRIS IN THE RIVER AND MUCH COLDER  
TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.  
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PUBLIC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.  
 

 
 

 
 
JDR/BEZENEK  
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
 
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