717
FXAK67 PAJK 042350
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN WEATHER WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
STORE FOR THE REST OF THE FOURTH OF JULY.
- A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, LIKELY HEAVY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- OUTER COASTAL AND INNER CHANNEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AND BECOME ELEVATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY SUNNIER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS ANNETTE ISLAND WERE A MESO LOW, JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA,
HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINY CONDITIONS. THIS
SMALL LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD, SO LESS RAINY AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE NEXT MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER EASTWARD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND INCREASED
WINDS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE AK. WITH THIS
SYSTEM WE WILL SEE A FEW DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A VERY BRIEF
BREAK POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW ON THAT BREAK. IT WILL
BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DIFFERENT LOWS IN THE GULF INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER. THE MAIN LOW, IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL FIRST BRING
RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT 24 RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND 2
TO 3 INCHES FOR ANNETTE ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE, OR
LESS, DEPENDING ON THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OTHER AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE ARE LESS LIKELY TO RECEIVE AS HIGH OF RAIN AMOUNTS. THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS LOOKING MOST LIKELY TO SEE 24 HOUR TOTALS
AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH, WITH FAR NORTHERN AREAS, LIKE SKAGWAY, HAINES,
AND YAKUTAT MORE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES.
ALONG WITH RAIN, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY, AND
THEN REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIKE HEAVIEST
RAIN, STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND. ONE LAST THING TO
NOTE IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SINCE THIS WOULD DEPEND ON A LOT OF
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR
INCREASED CAPE, BUT WE WILL ALSO BE DEPENDING ON A DRY PERIOD,
BETWEEN SYSTEMS, TO HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SIT OFFSHORE, SLOWLY WEAKENING AFTER THE STRONGER FRONT ON
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS A DRY SLOT AT 700 MB THAT MOVES
INTO THE OUTER COASTLINE AND INTO POW UP TO BARANOF ISLAND, AHEAD OF
ONE LAST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE MULTIVORTEX LOW
BEFORE IT FULLY WEAKENS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, STILL LARGELY OFFSHORE, OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY CORRESPONDING WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES
AND PVA ALOFT JUST ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAY BRING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO POW AND BARANOF ISLAND, BUT HIGHEST
CHANCES REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW ITSELF IS
WEAKENED BY THIS POINT, AS IS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ASIDE FROM LAPSE
RATES / CAPE / DRY AIR ALOFT, SO THESE MAY NOT END UP BEING AS
IMPACTFUL ESPECIALLY AS HEATING STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY OVER THE LAND
AREAS FROM HOW EARLY IN THE MORNING THIS WILL BE. THIS NEXT WEAK
BAND OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
COASTLINE, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL EVEN
MAKE IT DUE TO THE WEAKENING LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
SLIDING SE TO SIT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE.
EITHER WAY, MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON IF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR ANCHORAGE, AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM A BERING SEA LOW. AS OF NOW,
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE CHANCES FOR A LONGER BREAK LOOKING MOST POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE WEAK TROUGH OR REMNANTS FROM THE LOW MAY
KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS END OF WEEK
SYSTEM.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON / NEARLY ALL OF THE
PANHANDLE HAS CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 7000 FEET. EXPECT TO SEE
THE CLOUDS TO START TO LOWER AFTER THE 06Z DOWN TO THE 1500 TO
3000 FT RANGE IS SOME LOCATIONS. ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH PATCHY FOG BUT
MAY SHOW UP, ADDED SOME TO THE PETERSBURG AREA. THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL SEE CLOUDS AND RAINS START TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
10-15KTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY OR WESTERLY COMPONENTS. WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN DIRECTION AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30KTS
AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY.
WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 8-9FT ON MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
BENIGN ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 18KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OVERALL,
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH WIND SPEED UP
TO AROUND 15KTS. CLARENCE STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ELEVATED WIND
SPEED MONDAY AS WINDS ARE CHANNELED UP DIXON ENTRANCE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS OF 25 TO MAYBE 30 KT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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