438
FXAK67 PAJK 272348
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
- BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF PANHANDLE SUNDAY, BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE OUTER COAST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF CLEARING PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY LASTING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/
THE EASTERLY SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAIN RATES
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT AFTER IT PASSES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT FROM ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM THE MORE
FREQUENT AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS FROM THE GULF INTO THE OUTER COAST. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
GULF COASTLINE, WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD WILL
CONTINUE TO AVOID THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH THE CLEARER SKIES
AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOKING TO LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WON'T BE AS
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN INLAND PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE BY SKAGWAY AND HAINES, THOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER MAY
REMAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO START OFF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, COMBINED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN
THE GULF AND BRING DAMPER, OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE.
CHANCES FOR THE ONSHORE SHOWERS LOOK TO LAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ON IF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO SIT OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY, IT
WILL MAKE THE FLOW MORE OFFSHORE, AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AMPLITUDE OFFSHORE INCREASING AND MAKING THE W-LY ONSHORE FLOW
BECOME MORE NW-LY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND GIVE A BREAK FOR THE AREA. A LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF THURSDAY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BACK TO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY AT MOST TAF
SITES AS EXPECTED, BUT THIS MAY BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED BEFORE THEY
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AS THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND ADVANCES INLAND
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A FINAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD AND BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL END IN
MOST LOCALES BY 12Z WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS AFTER 15Z AND
PREVAILING MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TODAY, KEEPING UP TO
25 KNOT NW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE OUTER COAST. COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES. FOR SEAS, DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH AND STRONGER FOR LONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, EXPECTING TO SEE WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 8 FT,
PRIMARILY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST OF THE AREA (WESTERN COAST
OF POW).
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
ARE THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, LYNN CANAL, AND CLARENCE STRAIT,
PRIMARILY DUE TO WEATHER OCCURRING IN CANADA. TROUGHING IN CANADA
ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN NORTHERLY CORRESPONDING
CHANNELS TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
AROUND LYNN CANAL. FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, DAILY THERMAL TROUGHING IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO POSSIBLY 20 KNOTS BY MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>664.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...NC
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