291
FXAK67 PAJK 161412 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
612 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BREAK WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A GALE FORCE FRONT WITH WINDS 35 KT TO 45 KT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE YAKUTAT AND
HOONAH AREAS. ALONG WITH THIS, THE ANTICIPATED FOG DEVELOPED NEAR
YAKUTAT PROMPTING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 SM. BOTH OF THESE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND FOG
TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
CONTINUED PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THIS, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NEXT, LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF WITH GALES
OF 35 TO 45 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH LAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY AND
PUSH INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO
ONCE AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS WILL OCCUR NEAR YAKUTAT AND THE NE GULF COAST WITH TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REST OF SE AK WILL
NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN, BUT IS STILL LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN RATES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISHING,
HOWEVER WITH THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEPING A BROAD UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA, THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA REMAINS IN A GENERAL ZONAL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION IS PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
HARD TO TIME WEAK AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. WE
ARE NOT BITING OFF ON THE GFS OUTLYING SOLUTION OF A STRONGER
SURFACE REFLECTION (LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM) GENNING UP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF MIDWEEK, BUT OVERALL A GENERAL PATTERN OF
PERIODIC RAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES) CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. 05/GARMON
AVIATION.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A BIT OF CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE MOST IMPACTED AIRPORT
SITE IS PAYA, WHICH HAS DIPPED DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FREEZING FOG.
OTHERWISE, OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT A SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO, MAINLY
NEAR PAPG AND PAWG, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR PAGY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR
PAYA AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): EXPECT VERY SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS YESTERDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED
RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THIS MORNING, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID, WIND
SPEEDS IN THAT AREA IS 10 TO 15 KTS. SIMILARLY SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
DUE TO A STRONG LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE PANHANDLE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 15
TO 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CROSS SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD TAKING THE PLACE OF THE RIDGE. THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND AN ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS. ALONG WITH
THESE STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AND ONCE AGAIN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
EVEN AS GULF WINDS GREATLY DIMINISH INTO MONDAY, SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDE REMAINING AROUND 8 TO 12 FT INTO MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-321.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-053-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB
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