647
FXAK67 PAJK 251259
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NOCTURNAL MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
-SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE AK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
THE BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DRY AND
WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS A STALLED RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH. A MARINE LAYER WHICH MOVED
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF SE AK AND THE OUTER COAST OVERNIGHT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAJORITY
OF THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE
ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED, SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH SOME
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND PANHANDLE, AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR KETCHIKAN, PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, AND
ANNETTE ISLAND WITH WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED INLAND. TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER INDIVIDUAL SITES ARE
IMPACTED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THINK THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND SOME OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR COULD
BE KEPT IN THE 40S BY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, BUT CONVERSELY THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER WITH
CLEARING SKIES, MAY SEE DIURNAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS AND FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF UP TO 15KTS/17MPH.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF. UNFORTUNATELY, YAKUTAT AND THE NE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FROM A
CONTINUED MARINE LAYER. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO SEE LOW CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
STARTING MID WEEK, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DISRUPTS THE RIDGE
BRINGING WIDESPREAD BACK TO THE PANHANDLE AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE, LOW RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. AREAS SOUTH OF YAKUTAT HAVE A 70 TO 80% CHANCE THAT 24
HOUR RAIN TOTALS REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES. EVEN YAKUTAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO ONLY SEE AROUND 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT, BEHIND THIS WEAK
SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN.
WIND DURING THIS TIME REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THESE SEA BREEZES CAN SLIGHTLY
INCREASE WINDS BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, THE STRONGEST MARINE
WINDS REMAIN ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT INTO DIXON ENTRANCE WITH FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE. EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
SOUTHWARD.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WITH DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED, NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO
THE LOW TO HIGH 50S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND LASTING INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND,
KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND HYDER, EVEN HAVE A 40 TO 60% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS BRINGING FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS TO
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SITKA WILL STAY IN MVFR WITH MOISTURE
AROUND, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KLAWOCK WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE WIND
SHIFT, BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH WITH SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THESE
LOCATIONS, LIKE PAYA AND PAGS, DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER MOVING IN
SLOWER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT WITH DAY TIME
HEATING TO SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS BEFORE FALLING OFF AGAIN AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A STRATUS DECK
TRYING TO FORM AT PAJN WHICH WILL BURN OFF WITH THE SUN.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF, KEEPING COASTAL WINDS
RELATIVELY CALM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST
FROM CAPE DECISION THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE FAR NORTHERN
COAST TO THE WEST OF ICY BAY. A LOW MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN SITTING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS
SEEING NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT
FLOW THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND DOWN HECATE STRAIT, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF IS
SEEING SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST UP TOWARDS
CAPE SUCKLING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AND TURNING WESTERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF BEGIN TO EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN
GULF COAST, WITH STRONG BREEZES FLOWING INTO CROSS SOUND. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, INCREASING TO 7 TO 9 FT IN THE AREAS OF
STRONGEST WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 6 TO 9 FT AT A PERIOD OF
10 TO 13 SECONDS WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN 10-15 KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLACES. THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING ALONG
THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, THE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND
SUMNER STRAITS CHANNEL ENTRANCES, AND FLOWING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT. WHEN THE SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS PUSHES NORTH
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, FRESH BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO
CROSS SOUND AND DOWN ICY STRAIT. WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, DIURNAL SEA BREEZES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT, A LOW
MARINE LAYER WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO CHANNEL ENTRANCES SUCH AS
CROSS SOUND AND DOWN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, REACHING FURTHER AND
FURTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AGP/BEM
MARINE...GFS
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