408
FXAK67 PAJK 311302
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
502 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
-N-S ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
-WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
DETAILS:
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE AK AGAIN TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, IN THE UPPER 40S/MID-50S.
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. N-S ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS ARE STARTING THE
DAY WITH SPEEDS AS LOW AS ~5 KNOTS TO AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON, LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND
CHATHAM STRAIT COULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. BUT TONIGHT, THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO LOOSEN UP A BIT, SO WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
OVERALL, ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO RETRACT, THOUGH LYNN CANAL WILL STILL
SEE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
QPF REMAINS LOW IN MOST AREAS.
A DEEP LOW FORMING IN THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GALES OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
CHANNELS, THOUGH HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
HIGH MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, PEAKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / OVERALL LITTLE IN WAY OF
CONCERNS FOR TODAY. DRY WEATHER, MAINLY LIGHTER WINDS OF 20 KT OR
LESS, ALTHOUGH WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND SOUTHERN STEPHENS
PASSAGE THIS MORNING BLOWING A BIT STRONGER. A GOOD DAY OF DRYING
LIMITING POTENTIAL MORNING FOG, ALTHOUGH MAY STILL LOCALLY FORM IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GOOD FLYING WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY
AND EVENING.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MON AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SE AK. FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE EASING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MUCH STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR GALES IN THE GULF IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-641>643-661>664.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...NM
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