370
FXAK67 PAJK 031257
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO YAKUTAT.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUPS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
- CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH SOME AREAS ENTERING
THE TOP TEN DAILY HIGH FOR EARLY MAY ACROSS S PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH TUESDAY / WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE. LIGHT RAIN SPREADING THE NE GULF COAST AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY. OVERALL THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE RUNNING ON TRACK THAT WE WERE WATCHING THE
LAST DAY OR SO. MONDAY WITH A QUICK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THERE IS
POCKET OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MODELS
SOLUTIONS BEING CONSISTENT IN THAT. UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS AND NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTH IS THE ANTICIPATED HIGH
TEMPERATURE. TEMPERATURES REVERT BACK ON TUESDAY TO A MORE
SEASONAL VALUE BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WRITTEN SATURDAY/
A SLOW
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN (BY SPRING STANDARDS) INCREASINGLY TAKES HOLD.
THE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SHIELDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE BULK OF THE PRECIP BEGINS TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
BACK SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY, AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST AND THE PANHANDLE IS
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY IMPULSES MOVING UP ALONG ITS ITS
EASTERN FLANK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK AREAS OF
RIDGING WILL CONSEQUENTLY RACE UP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK,
PARADING THROUGH SE AK. AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, EXPECT PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH THROUGH AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THESE WAVES, BUT ALONGSIDE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN, DO EXPECT
THEM TO KEEP BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS ALL
AREAS OF SE AK, AS OPPOSED TO BEING LARGELY FOCUSED ON THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS HAD BEEN THE CASE PREVIOUSLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED BAG. WHILE TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE (WHERE LOW TO MID 60S REMAIN VERY MUCH POSSIBLE), THE
SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CONCURRENT RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE BETWEEN
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BROADLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, THOUGH THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THESE
ELEMENTS STILL REMAINS A FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING CONTINUE
TO BE VERY MUCH LOCATION DEPENDENT WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR
DOWN TO LIFR. SOME DROPS IN VISIBILITIES MVFR TO IFR ARE ALSO
STARTING TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE
START TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT DURING DAYTIME HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE LOWERED
CEILINGS PERSIST LATER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SHELTERED
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET RID OF THE CLOUD LAYER. ONE THING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: AN INCOMING FRONT INTO THE NE GULF COAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25-30 KNOTS BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY
CAPE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 9-13 FT FOLLOWED BY 15-20 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COAST LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHWESTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND DIXON
ENTRANCE TO 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE:
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LOOKING TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAYTIME THEN DROP TO CALM CONDITIONS BY 10 PM TONIGHT.
LOOKING TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND UP TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLIES.
LYNN CANAL AND TAIYA INLET GETS SPECIAL MENTION FOR ITS CONTINUED
FRESH BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LEE TROUGHING IN THIS CHANNEL
FOR LONGER. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR THIS OUTCOME, BUT FROM
PATTERN RECOGNITION, WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC BY KEEPING
STRONGER WINDS IN FOR LONGER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...BEZENEK
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