227
FXAK67 PAJK 182256
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH WIDESPREAD DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY!
- INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER
SIDE, REACHING INTO THE MID 60S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER INTO TOMORROW. THE GULF COAST IS LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE ALSO SEEING AREAS OF BLUE SKY. ALONG WITH THIS, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF SE AK. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TO START THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE HIGH 60S TO MID
70S. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
TO AROUND 14 TO 16 C. THIS HELPS TO CREATE AROUND A 70% CHANCE
THAT AREAS NEAR HYDER WILL REACH 80 DEGREES F OR GREATER. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AROUND 10 MPH. WITH
CLEARING SKIES, EXPECT DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES THAT CAN INCREASE
WIND GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER ICY STRAIT AND THE
YOUNG BAY AREAS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEE MORE INFORMATION
IN THE MARINE SECTION.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOLLOWING A PARTICULARLY
WARM MONDAY, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE DIRECTED
MORE OFF SHORE, BRINGING COOLER AIR IN OFF THE WATER RATHER THAN
WARM AIR OFF OF THE INTERIOR. THROUGH THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD TOWARDS HIGH 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO YAKUTAT AND POSSIBLY OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED RAIN TO JUNEAU
AND OTHER INTERIOR COMMUNITIES, BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS COULD BE DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS
LIKE A MORE PREVALENT MARINE LAYER, OR TERRAIN INFLUENCED SHOWERS.
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED
LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
A FRONT DEPARTING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CIGS TODAY FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES, BECOMING VFR
4-6KFT. FOR COASTAL AREAS, A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH MARINE
LAYER SLOWLY BURNING OFF, WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS BECOMING
BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR 2-4KFT. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS, WITH VIS AND CIGS BECOMING MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR, BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE MARINE LAYER BURNS OFF. GUSTY DAYTIME BREEZES 20-30KT FOR
PAGY, OTHERWISE DAYTIME WINDS GENERALLY 6 TO 12 KT WITH LIGHTER
NIGHTTIME WINDS.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS (INNER CHANNELS): .
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT SETTING UP, LEADING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR ICY STRAIT, PERIL STRAIT AND BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS
ISLAND. THE N-S CHANNELS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL GENERALLY
SEE WINDS GENTLE TO MODERATE, EXCEPT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES UP TO 20KT EACH AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND BECOME
MODERATE TO FRESH DURING THE DAY AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS SKAGWAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT PREVAILING
FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS, WITH HIGH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE
EDGECOMBE. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM NEAR CAPE DECISION TO DIXON ENTRANCE.
SEAS IN THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH WAVES ALONG CAPE DECISION DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE
COULD INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT DUE TO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WAVES COULD
FURTHER INCREASE AROUND LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAME
REGION WITH THE UPTICK IN WINDS. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
THIS FOR OUT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE. FURTHERMORE,
EXPECTING MOSTLY GOOD VISIBILITY GREATER THAN 2 MILES, AS THE
MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND 1000 FT OR GREATER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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