849
FXAK67 PAJK 120038
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-GALE FORCE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RAIN AND WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE.
-BRIEF BREAK FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR TUESDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION
OF THAT SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
PANHANDLE CONTINUES AS WE HAVE YET ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW CENTER
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BAND HAS BROUGHT GUSTS TO 60 TO 65 MPH TO
THE KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS
ARE LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SPREAD UP
TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON (WILL ALL OF IT RAIN SINCE
SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT) WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP RATES (AROUND 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR) OVER THE SOUTH. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO HEAD TOWARD CAPE FAIRWEATHER BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND MOVING INTO THE YUKON. EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE WITH
MOST OF THAT OVER THE SOUTH.
AFTER THAT POINT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE A SOMEWHAT CALM PERIOD BEFORE OUR NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY. CALM IS RELATIVE HOWEVER AS SHOWERS WILL STILL BE SEEN
PANHANDLE WIDE AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AROUND PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND ARE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS FOR THE SOUTH
WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH ONLY
AN INCH AT MOST OVER THE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET PANHANDLE WIDE SO MOST
COMMUNITIES WILL SEE RAIN RATHER THEN SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
AFTER A LESS ACTIVE MONDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT
WILL MAINLY BE AN IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT. HIGH WIND WATCHES, FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH, HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CREATES A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THESE IMPACTFUL
HIGH WINDS, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
HAVE A DIFFERENT TRACK AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. IF THE
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE, AND MOVES INLAND NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER, STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE PANHANDLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TO SKAGWAY. IF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS SLIGHTLY MORE WEST, AND MOVES INLAND NORTH OF
YAKUTAT, THE STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR YAKUTAT AND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF. NO MATTER THE SOLUTION, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS TO QUICKLY INCREASE AND CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.
ALONG WITH THIS WIND, THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OVER A 24 HOUR TIME FRAME, THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE CAN SEE AMOUNTS AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SEEING SLIGHTLY LESS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN EXPECT FOR OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FREEZING WITH SNOW LEVELS INCREASING FROM 1000
FT TO AROUND 2500 FT. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW. WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SNOW RATES, A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING PUSHING NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE THE
STRONGEST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY BEFORE THE STRONGEST WIND,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GREATLY
DIMINISHING. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR YAKUTAT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER,
BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, SO THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
BEHIND THIS STRONG SYSTEM, A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN DOES OCCUR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING WAVE OF PRECIPITATION PASSING THROUGH FROM
S TO N, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN WAVE PASSES
THROUGH NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTING CIGS AOB 1500
FT WITH VIS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH, WITH CIGS REACHING AOB 800 FT AND VIS DROPS TO 2SM OR
LOWER DURING THE TIMES OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR TO POTENTIALLY SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WITH 4 TO
6 SM VIS AND 2000- 4000 FT CIGS, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
ELEVATED BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING, WITH
LARGELY 15 TO 25 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 35
TO 40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA INTO TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
THE WORST CONDITIONS IN BEING LIKELY TO SEE DROPS FROM MVFR DOWN
TO IFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE THE WIND CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS MUCH MOVING NORTHWARD. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED
40 TO 60 KTS FROM THE SE AT 2000 FT TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN WIND STRENGTH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE LULL INTO
THE EARLY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SW-LY DIRECTION.
MARINE
INSIDE CHANNELS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND
FRONT THAT IS MOVING NORTH TROUGH THE AREA. SHIP AND LINCOLN
ISLANDS HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO 60 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MOST
SOUTHERN AREAS DOWN TO 25 KT OR LESS BY MORNING. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MEANWHILE HAS SEEN WINDS SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BROUGHT ON BY A FLIP IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WILL THEN FLIP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AS THE GULF
LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT
SOUTHERLIES ONCE THE WIND SWITCH HAPPENS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLIES MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL MOVE FROM S TO N UP THE
PANHANDLE AS A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY WIND WAVE THOUGH SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE ARE NOTICEABLY HIGHER DUE TO HIGH S SWELL IN
THE GULF.
GULF WATERS: A LOW AROUND 180 MILES WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE IS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF WATERS EAST OF ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE AREA
FROM CAPE DECISION SOUTHWARD AND EAST OF 138 W THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHOWING A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE GULF WILL SEE LOWER WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS START RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS STORM FORCE AS THE NEXT STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. EXPECT THESE HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE RATHER HIGH RANGING FROM 12 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL GULF TO 23 FT NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. THIS IS MOSTLY BEING
DRIVEN BY A 13 TO 15 FT S SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 15 SEC.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE S
SWELL DIMINISHES TO 8 FT, BUT WAVES WILL START BUILDING AGAIN
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ317>319.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ320>322-324-325.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ323-326>330-332.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ326>332.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ330-332.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641-642-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-643-644-651-
652-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...EAL
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