561
FXAK67 PAJK 220010
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
310 PM AKST SAT DEC 21 2024
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / THE WEATHER FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SHEARS APART OR WEAKENS OVER THE TOP OF THE
PANHANDLE. A FOLLOW ON LOW ROLLS NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF AS A LOW 960S LOW MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES A BAND OF
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BRINING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAINES
HIGHWAY, HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND PERHAPS THE
NORTHERN ARMS OF GLACIER BAY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE P-TYPE
WILL NOT BE RAIN.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THAT HAS BEEN MAIN STEERING MECHANISM THAT PAST FEW
DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST MID WEEK, AND THEN IS REPLACED
BY ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII MONDAY WAS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, IT IS STILL
A QUESTION. THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT
INTO A SMALL FAST MOVING GALE FORCE LOW TRACK UP FROM THE SOUTH
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SECOND FEATURE REMAINING OVER HAIDA
GWAII. THIS COMPLICATES NAILING DOWN PRECIP FOR THESE DAYS AS
STILL TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES. SO EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE PRECIP WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS
IN BETWEEN. OVERALL PRECIP WITH FALL A RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPS AND
THE SW FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING BOARDERS ALONG THE HAINES
AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WHERE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL. PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING SMALL CRAFT TO SOME GALES OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS INITIALLY BEFORE A GENERAL DIMINISHING OF
WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK, JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF
LOWS TO MOVE UP AND START THIS ROUND OF WINDY AND WET WEATHER FOR
SE AK.
AVIATION
THE NEXT FRONTAL TROUGH TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION IS CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BASED ON RADAR DATA. EASTERLY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT HAVE KEPT CEILINGS ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY, WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SPIN UP ALONG THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE SE GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE WINDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTY TO SPIKE UP
MORE AS IT PASSES BY FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING
LATITUDE WITH BARANOF ISLAND AROUND 6Z. EXPECT A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
TO THE SSE AND CONDITIONS TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN RAIN. LLWS REMAINS
THE GREATEST IMPACT TO AVIATION FROM EACH OF THE FRONTS THAT ARE
PASSING THROUGH. VAD WIND PROFILER FROM THE BIORKA ISLAND RADAR
HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ESE WINDS OF 40KT AT 2KFT TODAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT AGAIN AND WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO
THE ESE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A LARGE BAND GALE FORCES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THE
NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM WIND INCREASE UP TO STORM FORCE WINDS
SUNDAY FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. GALE FORCE WIND TO THE COAST AND INLAND
TO SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS LIKE CLARENCE STRAIT. SEAS OF THE
GULF WATERS INCREASE IN THE CONTINUED STRONG SE-S FLOW WITH WIND
WAVES AND SWELL IN TO 20 TO 30 FT RANGE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ317-330.
STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ327.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ328.
STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ329.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
AKZ330-332.
STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ330.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ641-661>664-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-642>644-651-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031-032-034-053.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page