871
FXAK67 PAJK 160607
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1007 PM AKDT SAT AUG 15 2026
EVENING AND 06Z AVIATION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THINGS EVENING. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. MAIN HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DENSE MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, FROM YAKUTAT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CROSS
SOUND AND SOUTHWARD TO PRINCE OF WALES. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES AND CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 200FT. BY MORNING, EXPECTING THIS MARINE DECK TO WORK WAY
ITS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, REACHING INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, S
CHATHAM, FREDERICK SOUND, AND SUMNER STRAIT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON HOW DENSE LAYER WILL BE. REGARDLESS, ANTICIPATE LOWERED
CEILINGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
AND S PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
AVIATION AND MARINE TRAVEL.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE, A MARINE LAYER HAS BEGUN TO ENTER FROM
THE WEST. PAYA HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO <1/2SM VSBY, AND WILL REMAIN
IN THAT IFR/LIFR REALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MORNING, IT MAY
LIFT TO IFR/MVFR WITH A CIG AROUND OR UNDER 1KFT, AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF RAIN FOR PAYA. THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT PENETRATE
FURTHER INLAND, LEAVING CLEARER VFR SKIES FOR INLAND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LOCALES. STRONGER WINDS WILL STIR UP ON SUNDAY THROUGH
LYNN CANAL, GUSTING UP TO 15-20KTS AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE AND MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, LEADING TO EITHER VFR OR IFR/LFR CONDITIONS
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MARINE LAYER TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND, KEEPING SITKA SOCKED IN IFR/LIFR WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AND CEILINGS AOB 300FT. FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THINKING KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN WILL JOIN
THE ACTION A BIT LATER TONIGHT, REACHING REACHING MVFR OR WORSE BY
12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 1000FT AND VISBYS AROUND
2 TO 4 SM. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z
SUNDAY TO PREDOMINATE VFR. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN AROUND 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SEAK TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 229 PM AKDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE FOR TODAY
BEFORE MORE MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /
MARINE DECK COVERS THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING
WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS TEMPS
WARM AND CLOUDS RISE SOME, HOWEVER, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE RIDING
THROUGH THE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCE TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT RANGE AND THEN THE BAND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST GOING FORWARD, BUT
STILL WITHIN THE SAME FLAVOR AS YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. TUESDAY
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE A LESS RAINY DAY. WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWN TO JUST A CHANCE FOR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND ALMOST REMOVED ENTIRELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL FROM THE AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS RIDGE OVER THE GULF QUICKLY
BREAKS DOWN, AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. STILL EXPECTING TO
SEE MOSTLY RIDGING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, DIRECTING A
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NE GULF COAST AND ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR. THIS TREND LOOKS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH A GENERAL ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH 18Z
ASCAT PASSES REPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. CURRENT SEA
STATE IS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST SEAS, SOUTHERLY SWELL, AND
NORTHWEST WIND CHOP; SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5FT AND DOMINANT
PERIOD NEAR 8 TO 10 SECONDS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST,
ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT GET MUCH STRONGER THAN FRESH BREEZES NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF PROMINENT CAPES. SEAS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 FT,
DOMINATED BY FRESH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
IS UNDERLYING SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 15 SECONDS SO ANTICIPATE SOME
BIGGER BREAKING WAVE ACTION ALONG FAVORABLE REEFS/BREAKS NEAR THE
COAST. A COMMERCIAL FISHING VESSEL REPORTED FOG NEAR CAPE
EDGECUMBE, WITH THIS THREAT LIKELY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SUNDAY A LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN, SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS BUILDING WINDS OF STRONG
BREEZES ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS BY SUNDAY EVENING, REACHING GALE
FORCE IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. MOVING EAST TO THE
FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS, WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES ARE FORECASTED, WITH
FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH TOWARD CAPE EDGECUMBE
AND PRINCE OF WALES.
OUR SUMMERTIME MELLOW SEA STATE GIVES WAY TO FRESH SEAS, BUILDING
TO NEAR 8 TO 11 FT MONDAY, A WARMUP FOR WHAT’S TO COME LATER THIS
FALL AS WE MOVE INTO OUR STORM SEASON. PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR
SMALLER RECREATIONAL BOATS OPERATING ALONG OUR COAST.
INSIDE:
LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES, AND A
LOW MARINE LAYER, REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE HIGHEST WINDS OF FRESH BREEZES TO
IMPACT CROSS SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS A LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF, BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES TO MANY
PASSAGES ALONG AND NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND; HIGHEST WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL. MARINERS OPERATING THE UPPER ARMS OF GLACIER BAY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. REID INLET COMES TO MIND, WHERE FOLKS WILL
OFTEN FIND SHELTER FROM THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY TO FIND
THEMSELVES EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE BRADY
ICEFIELD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-642>644-651-661>664-671-
672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...MUSALL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM/VFJ
MARINE...AP
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