001  
FXAK67 PAJK 141336  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
536 AM AKDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
A GALE FORCE LOW OVER  
THE WESTERN GULF IS TRACKING NORTH AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS DRENCHING THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.  
YAKUTAT RECORDED 1.28 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND, SINCE  
MIDNIGHT, HAS SEEN AN ADDITIONAL 0.65 INCHES AS OF THIS WRITING.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE EXCESS PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED THE  
ACCUMULATED YAKUTAT PRECIPITATION DEFICIT, (SINCE JANUARY 1ST),  
TO LESS THAN 1 FOOT. AT THE JUNEAU AIRPORT, A DAILY RECORD WAS SET  
YESTERDAY WITH 0.64 INCHES RECORDED. OTHER CO-OP SITES MAY COME  
IN WITH RECORD PRECIPITATION AS WELL, BUT THOSE NUMBERS WILL NOT  
BE IN UNTIL LATER TODAY. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS IS THAT ALL OF THE  
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE, NO  
SNOW WAS REPORTED OVERNIGHT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THERE ARE  
RELIABLE OBSERVATIONS...JUST RAIN. AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS NORTH  
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AS WILL THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONT. BASED ON HOW THE FRONT IS ORIENTED, DRY  
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEGINNING TODAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF  
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. NORTH OF  
THERE, PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH STEADILY BEGINNING LATER TODAY,  
BUT RELIABLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL NOT  
ENSUE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE LONG AWAITED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY  
CONTINUES TODAY COURTESY OF THE SAME FRONT THAT IS PRODUCING  
STRONG WINDS AND THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. IF  
THINGS REMAIN AS FORECAST, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL FINALLY SEE  
TEMPERATURES REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES TODAY WITH SIMILAR  
CONDITIONS EXPANDING NORTH TO FREDERICK SOUND ON THURSDAY. THAT  
TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE  
LONG TERM FORECAST IS - JUST HOW WARM WILL THE PANHANDLE GET THIS  
WEEKEND?  
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO, AT LEAST, THE EARLY PARTS  
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH WARM AIR AND CLEARER SKIES  
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.  
 
AND WHEN I SAY WARM AIR, I MEAN NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. LOW TO MID 60S ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE  
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE NORTH IS LOOKING AT  
WIDESPREAD 50S.  
 
ONE VARIABLE THAT WOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS IN THE NORTH IS THE  
SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND. THERE ARE STILL MANY AREAS WITH A PRETTY  
DEEP SNOWPACK. HERE IN JUNEAU, WE MEASURED 19 INCHES OF SNOW AT  
THE OFFICE IN THE BACK OF THE VALLEY WHILE THE AIRPORT IS  
REPORTING 0 INCHES OF SNOW. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPS CAN STILL WARM  
NICELY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK. HYDER IS REPORTING 36 INCHES OF SNOW  
ON THE GROUND AND THEY WERE STILL ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
THE WARM TEMPS WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BUT TUESDAY AND ON IS LOOKING  
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S TO 50S AS THE RIDGE  
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.  
 
AS FAR AS WIND THIS WEEKEND, THEY ARE LOOKING OVERALL ON THE  
CALMER SIDE FOR MOST. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL COULD SEE SOME STRONGER  
WINDS NEARING 25 KTS THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS. BUT OTHER AREAS ARE LOOKING AT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20  
KTS OR LESS.  
 

 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041-042-053.  
 

 
 

 
 
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VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
 
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