281
FXAK67 PAJK 210620
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1020 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 356 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
PANHANDLE. TODAY WE GOT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AROUND MIDDAY AND A SECOND
SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING BARANOF ISLAND FROM THE S AS OF 2 PM.
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY HEAVY ESPECIALLY SINCE AIR
TEMPERATURES AT SEA LEVEL HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN EVENT OF THE SHORT RANGE IS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORT WAVES (THAT ARE SPINNING UP
THEIR OWN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE GULF) SEND A SERIES OF BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT AREAS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A
FEW FACTORS. FIRST THE PRECIP BANDS LOOK TO BE CLUSTERING ALONG
THE OUTER COAST FOR THE INITIAL WAVE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS CHATHAM STRAIT UP TO HAINES. LESSER
AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST, BUT THOSE AREAS LOOK TO BE HIT BY THE SECOND
WAVE BEHIND IT THAT WILL BE MOVING MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. SECOND FACTOR IS DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
AT SEA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR A
LOT OF AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
HIGHER SNOW RATES TO THE MORNING HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. DURING
THE AFTERNOONS PRECIP WILL LIKELY STILL BE SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLE GIVEN HOW COLD ALOFT IT STILL IS (-8C AT
850 MB), BUT THE SNOW WILL BE MELTING AS IT REACHES THE GROUND.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THE WINTER STORM WATCHES THAT WERE OUT FOR THE
PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MANY
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHANNELS. ONLY HAINES HAS A
WINTER STORM WARNING AS TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SNOW RATES WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MORE THERE THEN ELSEWHERE.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER FACTOR, THE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS IN THE GULF ARE
BRINGING PERIODS OF 25 TO 40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW CENTERS. IN ADDITION THE
STRONGER PRECIP BANDS ON SATURDAY ARE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PANHANDLE MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED
TO THE SOUTH). WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR THE SOUTH WHILE THE
GUSTY WINDS FARTHER NORTH HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...LINGERING SHOWERS FOLLOW BEHIND THE LARGER
FRONT ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE OUTER
COASTLINE SITKA SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM MIDDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE START OF SUNDAY, AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WELL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING TO
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND FALLS APART.
THE ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL, GIVING A WINDOW OF GENERALLY MORE BENIGN
CONDITIONS IN BOTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ALIKE FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY BRINGS A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
FROM THE SOUTH, BUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM COMES WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL. THE MOST AGREED UPON SOLUTION NOW BETWEEN MOST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME, IS THE STORM FORCE LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY MODEL WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT
SOLUTION IS THE GEFS AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL, KEEPING THIS LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INTO CANADA SOONER, BUT THIS AS OF
TODAY APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.
THE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING FINALLY AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING LARGELY
GALES TO STRONG GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND CLARENCE STRAIT SEEING SOME STORM FORCE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE LOW WEAKENING BY THE TIME
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS OF NOW IS UNCERTAIN, WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT ON IF
THE LOW WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD INTO CANADA, MORE DIRECTLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, OR LINGER JUST OFF THE COASTLINE TO THE WEST AS
IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTHWARD
THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES, AS WELL AS THE WIND IMPACTS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL SEE THESE HIGHEST
WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY ALONE BRINGING SOME OF THE WINDS
HIGHER AND SHOWING IT TO BE A STRONGER LOW CENTER, BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.
OUTFLOW WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM, AS
THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH A HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
ENABLE SOME STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE GAP WINDS COMING OFF OF THE
NE GULF COASTLINE, ALONGSIDE SOME 30 TO 50 KT WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS IMPACTING
SOME OTHER NE ORIENTED CHANNELS SUCH AS TAKU INLET AND WINDS COMING
OUT OF CROSS SOUND INTO THE GULF. THESE STRONG OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER
WITH THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE FURTHER NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO BE VARIED DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. MOST AIRPORTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
PASSING SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DURING THOSE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR LLWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS...MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CHANNELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THOSE AREAS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO CLIMB AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY 25 TO 30 KT SOUTH WINDS
FOR MANY INNER CHANNELS AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH) ON SATURDAY.
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MIN GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHANNELS MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BURST OF SW WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF ONE OF THE GULF LOWS PUSHES SOME STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CHANNELS. LIKELY ANOTHER PERIOD OF 25 TO
30 KT WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL CHANNELS NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
BECAUSE OF IT. SEAS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY TO AROUND 6 TO 7
FT OR SO AS WINDS INCREASE WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
EXPOSED TO A SOUTH SWELL.
GULF WATERS...THE GULF WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS
MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF STRONGER
COMPACT LOW CENTERS MOVE N AND THEN NW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
EXPECT PERIODS OF UP TO MIN TO MODERATE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST OF THESE LOWS MOVE NORTH. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LOW CENTERS WILL MAINLY BE 25 KT OR LESS BUT WIND DIRECTION
WILL ALMOST CONSTANTLY BE SHIFTING FROM E TO S TO W THEN BACK TO E
AS THE LOW CENTERS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS QUIET DOWN AGAIN AS WE GET
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6 TO 8 FT WITH A 8 FT W
SWELL. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY (UP TO 13 FT IN SOME
NEAR SHORE AREAS) AS THE INCREASED WINDS FROM THE VARIOUS LOW
CENTERS BUILD SEAS. ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
AKZ320-321-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
AKZ322-323-327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR AKZ326.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-641>643-661-662-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-053-644-651-
652-663.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
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