373
FXAK67 PAJK 130050
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-BRIEF BREAK FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER STORM FORCE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY.
-MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS, ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF SEAK ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
-SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
COASTAL PANHANDLE WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WERE TO NARROW DOWN ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
A STRONG LOW JUMPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SENDS A STORM FORCE
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. ONLY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF WHERE THE FRONT JUMPS
ONSHORE. DUE TO HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE, RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS NOT AS BIG OF A PROBLEM AS
WINDS WILL BE. A SWATH OF SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS
NEARING LOW-END HURRICANE FORCE WILL SHOOT UP THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TUESDAY MORNING, FUNNELING INTO N/S FACING CHANNELS
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW CENTER JUMPS ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, THE STRONGEST INNER
CHANNEL WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH STEPHENS PASSAGE AND LYNN CANAL,
LINGERING IN NORTHERN LYNN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE
CHANNELS CALM DOWN. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING THE FRONT, AND A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY PAST MILE 10. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL START CLEARING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
LONG TERM
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE LOW
AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INLAND INTO THE
YUKON AND INTERIOR ALASKA. WITH THIS LOW WORKING INLAND, THERE IS
AN EXPECTED JUMP IN THE WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. WITH
THIS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
KEEPING THE WET WEATHER GOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE COMPARED
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PREVIOUSLY. HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE MORE
DOMINANT PATTERN FOR THE SE AREA. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY STABLE BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
IS GREATER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH TOO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FOR THE
YAKUTAT AREA AND FARTHER TO THE WEST OF YAKUTAT BAY WHERE AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER TOWARDS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST OFFICE
CWA. FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA, 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION COULD JUMP UP TO
2- 2.5" OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA, EVEN MORE SO WHEN
COMPARED TO THE WEATHER THAT SE HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
MONTH. CPC GUIDANCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOW SE AK MOVING TOWARDS A NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING
RAIN AND VARIABLE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VIS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS COULD DROP DOWN TO
IFR UNDER HEAVIER/STEADIER RAIN. VIS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP
DOWN TO IFR STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS AT PAHN AND PAGY 15-25G25-35 KT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS 25 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS 50 TO
60+ KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH AND REACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TAF SITES BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS WILL BE
INCREASING AS WELL, WITH WINDS 2KFT ALOFT BECOMING 40-65+ KT.
MARINE
INSIDE CHANNELS: THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLIES
MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL MOVE FROM S TO N UP THE PANHANDLE AS A PRE-
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WIND WAVE
THOUGH SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE ARE
NOTICEABLY HIGHER DUE TO HIGH S SWELL IN THE GULF.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INTO CLARENCE AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM
BECOMING STORM FORCE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO STRONG
GALES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CROSS SOUND,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND LYNN CANAL AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TO THE
NORTH WITH A STRONG SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
IN CHANNELS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTS OF THE CHANNELS THAT
MAY SEE SOME CONVERGENCE, SUCH AS AROUND POINT ARDEN AS WELL AS INTO
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL NEAR ELDRED ROCK AS THE WIND FUNNELS INTO THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. GUSTS AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARE LIKELY
TO REACH ABOVE 60 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM S TO N TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT AT THE HIGHEST.
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS START RAMPING UP AGAIN INTO TUESDAY AS A STORM
FORCE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY UP THE COASTLINE FROM S TO N AS THE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD, REACHING THE NORTHERN COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW, WITH NEAR GALES UP TO STRONG GALES FURTHER WEST
OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PASSES, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
TO SE-LY DIRECTION TO A SW-LY DIRECTION AS ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS TONIGHT REMAIN BETWEEN
10 AND 12 FT, BEFORE BUILDING FROM S TO N BEGINNING WITH THE WATERS
OFF OF POW AND NEAR HAIDA GWAII. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 25 TO 32 FT
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOSTLY
BEING DRIVEN BY A 25 TO 30 FT S SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 15
SEC.
HYDROLOGY
ANOTHER FAST MOVING AND WET SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 65 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL FOLLOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE
RISING TO 4000 TO 6000 FT ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
SNOWMELT. EXPECT RAPID RISES ON SMALLER AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY LATE TUEDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENT. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, TAPERING OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS WILL FOLLOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN, OCCURRING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE RISING TO 2000 TO 5000 FT. ANY AREAS THAT
ARE CONTINUING TO SEE DRAINAGE ISSUES OR PONDING WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL POOLING OF WATER. WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ317>319.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ318.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-324-325.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ323-326>330-332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-033-036-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-032-034-035-053-652-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...CONTINO
HYDROLOGY...DS
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