593
FXAK67 PAJK 210116
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
416 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2024
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS, SO COOL/COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUES.
BIGGEST CHANGES MADE TO TODAY WERE TO SOME TEMPERATURES TO BRING
TIME IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST MODELS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES. BUMPED UP SOME SPEEDS FOR THE SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AS
WERE UNDER FORECASTED BEFORE.
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, SO
CONTINUING THE WARNING TO THE EVENINGS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK/
BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR, THOUGH MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT ENHANCE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NE AND
EASTERLY ORIENTED VALLEYS AND INTERIOR PASSES.
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE RESTS ON THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BREAKING DOWN. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DO SO, OR AT LEAST WEAKEN THE RIDGE SUCH
THAT A SHORT WAVE CAN DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION, SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST
SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES
GUIDANCE ARE STILL LEANING TOWARDS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MORE SNOW, THIS POTENTIAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 24 HR SNOW TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY.
THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP
IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE, THE BLOCKING RIDGE
COULD BE AROUND FOR A WHILE, WHICH MEANS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FULL VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE HERE IN SE AK. STILL DEALING WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS BUT LLWS LOOKS TO LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT, LEAVING TOMORROW
HAVING A BIT SMOOTHER FLYING WEATHER.
MARINE
GALE FORCE OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND INTERIOR PASSES/RIVER VALLEYS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST, AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. WITH THE PERSISTENT WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL AND DOWN CHATHAM STRAIT, HAVE ENHANCED SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ319.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ325.
STRONG WIND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-032-643-644-651-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-033>036-053-641-642-652-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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