887
FXAK67 PAJK 111151
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MODERATE RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
- QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- A LARGER, IMPACTFUL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GULF MIDWEEK AND
IMPACT SEAK BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. RAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH RAIN RATES DECREASING AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS AS IS WORKS ASHORE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
LIGHTER RAIN CONTINUING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUST 20 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH.
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND SOME A BIT
OF DRIER WEATHER. FURTHER NORTH, ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE RIDGE WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON
NORTH AND OVER TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT COULD BE CONVECTIVE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY, BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHTNING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER NORTHEAST GULF COAST, 0.5 TO 1 INCH FOR ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, TO 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE
DRIER, COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SNOW LEVELS
COULD INITIALLY BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHWAYS
(1.5-2.5KFT) LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SNOW TO MIX IN
AS THE RAIN BEGINS NEAR WHITE PASS AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
HAINES HIGHWAY, BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ANY SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS
QUICKLY REBOUND. COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN MID 40 TO LOW
50S.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAKER WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH FROM HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING ENOUGH
DISTURBANCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE LARGER IMPACTS MAY COME AS EARLY AS THURSDAY FROM A
MUCH DEEPER LOW. THE LATTER LOW WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WESTERN
GULF, AND WILL HAVE AMPLE TO MATURE AS IT LOOKS TO BE HELD OUT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF BY SOME FUJIWARA EFFECT RELATED
TO A SMALLER ORBITING LOW WHICH MOST GUIDANCE HAS COMBINING
TOGETHER.
BY FRIDAY THE EXTENT OF ITS INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY REACH US HERE
IN SEAK. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFERS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
RUNS. ONE OF THE LARGER VARIABLES BEING HOW LONG THE TWO LOWS
ORBIT ONE ANOTHER BEFORE JOINING AND ALLOWING THE RESULTANT LOW TO
TRACK EAST. A LATER ARRIVAL WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER
SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
A FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
TODAY, BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE INITIALLY, THEN PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SOON BECOME PREDOMINATELY
MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT CIGS AT
PAYA DOWN TO 1800 FT, WITH OTHER SITES FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND
AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST. LOWERING CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED
TO REACH OTHER NORTHERN SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY,
SEEING CIGS AS LOW AS 1000 FT AT TIMES WITH REDUCED VSBY (4-5SM) DUE
TO PASSING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE REGION, THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG
FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN SITES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER POST-FRONTAL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR PAGY AND PAHN INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTS TO
30KTS, BY AROUND 18Z. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY
AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MANY OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS NEAR
PAYA FROM 15Z TO 18Z AS A STRONG 925MB JET PUSHES IN ALONG THE NE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THIS IS MAINLY FOR SPEED
DIFFERENCE AS DIRECTION IS FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AND
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
NEAR TERMINALS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE FRONT WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS WEST TO EAST
TODAY WITH A WIDE SWATH OF S TO SELY 25-35KT ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING THIS
MORNING AND OVER THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD 10 TO 14+ FEET WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE SWLY AND SEAS BECOMING 5 TO 7 FT
BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENTIAL STORM FORCE LOW/FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE GULF AND IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WEEK, WITH
WIDESPREAD GALES AND SEAS 15-20+FT LIKELY.
INSIDE WATERS: SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH
TO STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR FREDERICK SOUND ON NORTH. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS, BUT SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP AND BECOME FRESH IN
CLARENCE STRAIT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME RELATIVELY BENIGN EARLY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE. SIMILARLY TO THE GULF, INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONGER
LOW/FRONT IMPACTING THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-053-
641>644-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...DS
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