401
FXAK67 PAJK 271202
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WITHIN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES MAINLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING,
EXPECT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE RAINFALL
TOTALS WERE GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH SATURDAY, SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2-4" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING, SO THAT
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS. THIS MORNING, A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR MOUNT FAIRWEATHER. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR BARANOF ISLAND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ON THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST, AND THIS MEANS RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY TO SATURDAY/ A WEAKENING LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED IN THE GULF TUESDAY DISSIPATING AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND
MELTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
LOW MOVING NE OUT OF THE PACIFIC LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE HAIDA
GWAII OR BC COAST REGION THURSDAY RAIN MAY COVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BUT ANOTHER FEATURE WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AND WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO FRIDAY.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND ARCING TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY
SATURDAY WITH 20 TO 30 KT APPROACHING THE GULF COASTAL ZONES
SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE END OF THE WEEKS FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE WET SIDE
WITH FAIRLY CONTINUOUS RAIN, WITH BETTER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED TO
THE FRONTAL BANDS AND LOWS.
AVIATION
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE TODAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN AND WIND
WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PREDOMINANT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO
INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE COAST AND 925MB WINDS BECOME RATHER INTENSE FOR
ABOUT A 6 TO 12-HR PERIOD LATER TODAY UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA, BEFORE DECREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
INSIDE WATERS THIS MORNING DUE TO A FRONT. ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, A DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS CONSENSUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A
SECONDARY LOW TO FORM NEAR BARANOF ISLAND DUE TO THE DISTURBANCE,
AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, SUMNER STRAIT,
FREDRICK SOUND, AND CHATHAM STRAIT.
GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THERE IS A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
INCLUDING KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA FROM SUNDAY MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE OCCURRING NEAR
CAPE SUCKLING DUE TO A BARRIER JET WITH EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA IS PUSHING MULTIPLE FRONTS
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MEANS
THAT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
OUTSIDE WATERS. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW TUESDAY, EXPECT ELEVATED
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS, WINDS ARE ALSO GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ327-328.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-033>036-053-641>644-
651-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...MUSALL
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MUSALL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page