400
FXAK67 PAJK 251302
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
502 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NO MAJOR WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SEAK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE SUN AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS.
SHORT TERM
A BENIGN SHORT TERM CONTINUES, WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING A WEAK
FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
AVOIDING IT ALL TOGETHER. BROKEN SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE FRONT WITH HOW WEAK IT LOOKS TO BE, AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
WIDELY CLEAR OUT AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN OVER THE GULF. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
GOING INTO TUESDAY, WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS SPREADING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE N/S ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL LOOKS TO FEEL THE BRUNT OF THESE WINDS AS USUAL, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING CLOSER TO 30 KTS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTING
INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SPEEDS LEADING UP TO
THE EVENT, SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
GUSTS WILL BE.
FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY MORNING, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED THROUGH SOME OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INLETS, MAINLY NEAR
JUNEAU, ANGOON, HOONAH, TENAKEE, AND KAKE. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FOG IN HOONAH, TENAKEE INLET, PARTS OF PERIL
STRAIT, AND ANGOON. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE
SPREAD. PERIODS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN THICKER
BANKS, BUT LOOKING AT CAMERA, PERSISTENT AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY THIN. YAKUTAT IS SEEING A LOW MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000
FT PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RETREAT THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SEEING CLEAR SKIES,
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO LOW
20S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, IN THAT
THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT ON A LARGE HIGH BEING SITUATED OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH ALMOST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY. AS A
LOW RECEDES SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII FURTHER TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND A TONGUE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES BACK SOUTH TO THE GULF FROM
SOUTH- CENTRAL ALASKA, GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT
WEAKEN OVER TIME INTO THURSDAY FOR THE UPPER INNER CHANNELS, SUCH
AS LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME WITH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH BREAKS DOWN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF IMPACTS WITH
THIS LATTER SYSTEM FROM RUN-TO-RUN. AT THIS LENGTH OF FORECAST,
CONJECTURING AT EXACT IMPACTS IS A FOOL'S ERRAND, BUT ELEVATED
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS THE NEXT BOUT OF
NOTABLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF RAIN ONSET
WOULD BE FRIDAY PM FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
/THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/
GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAIN AVIATION TROUBLE IS MVFR
NEAR YAKUTAT, AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR OF INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS AOB 200FT AND
VISBYS DUE TO PASSING FOG. BY 18Z, EXPECTING RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS, OUTSIDE OF
YAKUTAT WHO WILL STAY PREDOMINATELY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK
FRONT PUSHES E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LIKELIEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR YAKUTAT BY 21Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING,
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS SITKA, GUSTAVUS, AND EVENTUALLY
JUNEAU BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING, AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): RIDGING IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE, SPREADING THE SWATH OF WINDS FROM JUST ALONG THE COAST
TO THE REST OF THE GULF MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF AND CONTINUE COASTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FRESH BREEZES WITH AREAS OF STRONG BREEZES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. 5 TO 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH 3 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
INCREASE BACK UP TO 8 TO 9 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AGAIN. A LOW MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2000 FT HAS BEEN PUSHING INTO YAKUTAT ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
INSIDE WATERS (INNER CHANNELS): A GULF RIDGE IS KEEPING WINDS
RELATIVELY CALM SUNDAY, WITH LYNN CANAL EXPECTED TO FLIP SOUTHERLY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHILE STAYING BELOW 10 KTS. SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, MAINLY ALONG
LAND NEAR TENAKEE, HOONAH, ANGOON, AND KAKE. THESE BENIGN INNER
CHANNEL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
N/S ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING
CLOSER TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY WENT WITH LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE
CHANNELS MIDDAY TUESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT GUSTS OR GREATER IN LYNN CANAL
DURING THIS TIME. 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE
WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, WITH 4 TO 6 FT EXPECTED IN UNSHELTERED
LOCATIONS. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LOOK TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ321-324.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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