858
FXAK67 PAJK 111349
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY.
- PATCHY FOG ONCE MORE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK, AND RAIN TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM
THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE STARTS OFF SATURDAY
CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AND
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS RADIATION FOG HAS DEVELOPED ONCE MORE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR
LESS OBSERVED AT YAKUTAT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE AREA THROUGH 9AM BASED UPON SURFACE AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING SOME BROKEN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE OUTER COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NOT HAVE ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO IN THE INNER
CHANNELS, PRIMARILY IN INTERIOR PASSES IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM THE ONGOING OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S RANGING TO TO THE MID
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF TO END THE WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW GULF. THIS SYSTEM
STILL SHOWS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT ARE ABNORMALLY COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR , WITH -7 TO -9 C TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AND
A COLD LOW CENTER AT 500 MB. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE KEEP SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DUE
TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPS,
BRINGING MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS FRONT, KEEPING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FROM N TO
S BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING
UP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE N
PANHANDLE, BECOMING RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE RAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH SOME
SNOW MIXING IN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS IS MORE UNLIKELY THAN
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MUCH AT ALL,
ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE HIGH 30S TO LOW
40S MONDAY. EXPECTING AROUND A TRACE OF SNOWFALL UP TO 0.5 INCHES
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SEA
LEVEL LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW 1 INCH FOR 48 HR SNOWFALL. CHANCES
ARE HIGHER FOR THE NE GULF COAST AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREAS FOR
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL, BUT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BEGIN
TO QUICKLY MELT INTO THE MORNING AND ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE
WET AND SLUSHY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING
IN, BUT NONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE, AND IF IT DOES WILL ONLY
BE A TRACE BEFORE MELTING DURING THE DAY. MAJORITY OF THE QPF FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NE GULF COASTLINE, BETWEEN
0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES OF QPF FOR YAKUTAT, LARGELY FALLING AS RAIN
ASIDE FROM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / OVERALL A GOOD DAY FOR
FLIGHT OPERATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY. PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE ARE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS OUT OVER THE
GULF. THUS FAR ONLY ONE POCKET OF MORNING FOG HAS BEEN SPOTTED ON
SATELLITE OR BY THE SENSORS AND THAT IS IN YAKUTAT, WITH A
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR LESS. THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
ONLY HAZARD FOR TODAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS LIKELY THAT ONLY THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL END UP THE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILING LEVELS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SPEEDS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KT) EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. PRIMARY WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FT WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE WEST, AND BEGIN INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY, REACHING 25 TO 30
KT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES (11 TO 27 KT) IMPACTING
GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM STRAIT, STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
CLARENCE STRAIT. FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS ARE LIMITED GIVEN WARMER
AIR TEMPERATURES. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO
SE AK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-661.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page