464
FXAK67 PAJK 181431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
631 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT AND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MARITIME INTERESTS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE STRONG FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING GALE FORCE TO POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF YAKUTAT THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY.
OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
MAIN CONCERN THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INNER CHANNELS
AND COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF PETERSBURG. OTHERWISE THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL LIKELY BE THE "BEST" CONDITIONS WE WILL SEE THROUGH MID WEEK.
MONDAY SEES THE PRELUDE TO THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING IN TUESDAY.
A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NE
GULF COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY ROUND OF
ENERGY RACING UP INTO KODIAK ISLAND WILL REINFORCE THIS LOW
PRESSURE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, DEEPENING TO 970 MILLIBARS OR
LOWER BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE WIND FORECAST SO FAR, ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED DURING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OUTSIDE OF
THE WIND ADVISORY, START PLANNING FOR A WET AND WINDY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
EXPANDED FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, INCLUDING JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY.
AS FOR RAINFALL, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
WITH YAKUTAT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOMING LONG DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR YAKUTAT, SITKA, PELICAN, AND ELFIN
COVE, RAIN TOTALS OVER A PERIOD OF 36 HOURS IS AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR YAKUTAT AND LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR
SITKA. FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING HOONAH AND NORTHERN
ADMIRALTY ISLAND, RAIN TOTALS OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE AROUND
2-3 INCHES, SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS STORM. FOR CONTEXT, THESE
TOTALS ARE UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT ARE NOT
HISTORICALLY EXTREME. AS FOR JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS RAIN TOTALS FOR
THIS EVENT ARE AROUND 2-4 INCHES OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD, THOUGH
EXPECTED TOTALS. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR IMPACTS TO
THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM WE SAW ON FRIDAY, WHERE SALMON RIVER,
JORDAN CREEK, AND MONTANA CREEK REACHED EITHER NEAR OR INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE HYDROLOGY AND
LONG TERM SECTION.
LAST AND CERTAINLY CAN'T BE FORGOTTEN MOVING INTO LATTER HALF OF
OCTOBER, BUT DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME LEVEL OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT AT WHITE PASS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND NEARBY WEBCAMS SUPPORTING THIS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AT UPPER
ELEVATIONS OF WHITE PASS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM ABOVE
PUSHES INLAND, ALBEIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHING ASHORE WITH A DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF, WITH A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE GULF
AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, CLEARING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL TAP INTO A DEEPER FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS FEEDING INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS AND STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY, PRODUCING GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS IN INNER CHANNELS SUCH
AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, WITH WIDESPREAD GALES
(34-47 KT) TO STORM-FORCE WINDS (48–63 KTS) AND COMBINED SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET ALONG OUTER COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY FROM CAPE
EDGECOMBE NORTHWARD.
AS THE PRIMARY LOW STALLS AND WEAKENS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBTLE TROUGHS
SWINGING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SEAK
THROUGH THURSDAY. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE LOW TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S (LOW 50S POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SNOW LEVELS MAY INITIALLY BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
NEAR WHITE PASS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DOWN TO 1-2KFT BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE HAINES HIGHWAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FOR
NOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF
CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME ISOLATED PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD COME TO AN LATER
TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BE HOW QUICK DO PLACES SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO CONCERNS FOR
LLWS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS WE SEE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
MARINE.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
OUTER WATERS:
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 80NM S OF YAKUTAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WITHIN SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SYSTEM REACHES THE
GULF COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
GULF, AND GULF COAST WATERS WITH GALE FORCE TO POTENTIALLY STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND ELEVATED SEAS REACHING 20 TO 30 FT FROM SOUTHERN BARANOF
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO THE ENTRANCE OF YAKUTAT
BAY.
INSIDE WATERS:
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, GOING LIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH AND CALM AND VARIABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. BENIGN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINDS TURN PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTER GULF COAST. BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD STRONG BREEZES TO
NEAR GALES ACROSS THE AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING
WITHIN N LYNN CANAL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
GULF, REINFORCING THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND DRAWING A
DEEPER FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY, AND IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 500 KG/MS IVT FOR
AROUND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NE GULF COAST. EXPECTING YAKUTAT TO BE THE BIG
WINNER IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH NEAR PERFECT PERPENDICULAR
FLOW, STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING LIFT POTENTIAL, AND
DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THIS, YAKUTAT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 6
INCHES DURING A 36 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 2
YEAR ARI EVENT. FOR THE JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS AREAS SPECIFICALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER FROM LAST WEEK WHICH PUT SALMON RIVER AND MONTANA CREEK INTO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE, ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR
THESE AREAS FOR EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING AT THE LEAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
AKZ017. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-664-671-672. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-053-641>644-651- 661>663.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...NC
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