755
FXAK67 PAJK 061821
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1021 AM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION SECTION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES
- FRONT WILL BE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.
- LEANING TOWARDS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
QUIET YET DAMP MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY.
THE REMAINS OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A
WEAKENING BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM WRANGELL SOUTH TO CENTRAL
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS
STILL SITTING UNDER A SHIELD OF CLOUDS WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT.
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS HAS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT
MUCH. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY
MIDDAY. WHAT WILL BE LEFT IS A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
GENERAL W TO SW ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD
COVER AROUND AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL
AND WINDS LOW AS WITH THE LACK OF WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG.
ONE COMPLICATIONS TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS A FRONT THAT WILL BE
ADVANCING ON THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET ANY FARTHER NORTH THEN THAT. THAT FEATURE IS
STILL LOOKING TO BRING S TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT FOR THE SE
GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAINLY TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO THE FRONT WILL SHIFT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY THOUGH THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE
SHAPED BY SEVERAL EVOLVING SYSTEMS. THE MAIN STORY BEGINS WITH THE
TAIL END OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SPECIFICALLY FROM HECATE STRAIT UP THROUGH
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN REGION ON MONDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS
LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND DRYING OUT, SO EXPECT WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MONDAY MIDDAY.
LOOKING TOWARD THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TRACK
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WHILE THIS FRONT BRINGS INCREASED WIND
POTENTIAL TO THE LYNN CANAL AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS
WEAK. A 500MB TROUGH BUILDING TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY
TERRAIN-DRIVEN, CHARACTERIZED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND PRIMARILY ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTHERN REGION. POST-FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE, NEAR HAIDA GWAII, AND ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, IT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, NORTH TO
SOUTH RESPECTIVELY, AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BY FRIDAY, A STRONGER LOW TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION, BUT ENSEMBLE MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING AND TRACK. THE GEFS FAVORS A FASTER, SOUTHERLY PATH TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
ENS SUGGESTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH COAST NEAR ICY
BAY WITH A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY/
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
A MARINE LAYER LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWN CIGS & SOMETIMES VISS TO WELL WITHIN THE MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY. CIGS MAY TEMPORARILY DIP DOWN INTO IFR, AS WELL, AT
TIMES. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY PAGY, WHICH WILL START OUT AS VFR AND EVENTUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR TONIGHT. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN A BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF
WRANGELL TO JUST EAST OF HYDABURG CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD,
COMPLETELY DEPARTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS UP A BIT FROM THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORY
RANGE TEMPORARILY, BUT THEN THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO PERIODICALLY
INFLUENCE THAT AREA, AS WELL, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD,
BRINGING FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO WITHIN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
AS FOR SFC WINDS, THEY WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGION(PAGY & PAHN) THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SFC WINDS LOOK TO STAY RATHER BENIGN. LLWS VALUES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS WELL.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS N
LYNN WHERE WINDS OF 24 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE LOW WIND CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND FOR SUNDAY
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH (N LYNN MAY STAY AROUND 25 KT TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY). THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL
HAVE THE NORTHERN EDGES OF A FRONT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
25 KT INTO CLARENCE STRAIT AND PRINCE OF WALES ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN INTO MONDAY.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD, BUT N LYNN TODAY AND
CLARENCE SUNDAY COULD SEE SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FT DUE TO THE HIGHER
WINDS EXPECTED THERE AT THAT TIME.
GULF WATERS: GENERALLY S WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF
TODAY, BUT AN INCOMING FRONT FROM THE S WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE SE SUNDAY MAINLY WEST OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND, WHILE OTHER AREAS OF THE GULF WILL MAINLY SEE 20 KT
OR LESS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 15 KT OR LESS OUT OF THE E
THIS TIME INTO MONDAY. SEAS ARE RATHER QUIET WITH MAINLY 5 FT OR
LESS COMBINED SEAS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SWELL. THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10
FT MAINLY FOR AREAS E OF 141 W BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AGAIN
INTO MONDAY TO 6 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-641-642-644-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page