453
FXAK67 PAJK 040653 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
857 PM AKST MON NOV 3 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, LOWERING CEILING
BRIEFLY, AND SPREADING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND THEN IMPROVING.
NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD MAINLY VFR BY MORNING. NOT SEEING VERY
QUICK CLEARING FROM WHERE THE BAND WAS 7 HOURS AGO BUT THE ENHANCE
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ON. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ROTATING NORTH TO DIXON
ENTRANCE BY MORNING AND WILL SEE THIS ONE WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SO SHOWERS AND WEATHER
IMPACTS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THEN IMPROVEMENT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH AS WELL. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO AVIATION
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 237 PM AKST 3 NOVEMBER 2025
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR APART AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. WHAT IS LEFT IN MANY PLACES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE OCCASIONAL
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. WINDS TOO ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE,
WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING AROUND A LIGHT BREEZE. EXPECTING TO
SEE THE MOSTLY DRY TREND CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE SE GULF BY TOMORROW.
MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
EAST QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND
FALLING APART IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR PLACES
LIKE KETCHIKAN, THIS MEANS RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WHILE AREAS
LIKE JUNEAU OR SKAGWAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP NICELY.
LONG TERM...
LAND AND MARINE WINDS WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT FOR THE
PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND 35 KTS AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF,
AND HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1015 TO 1020 MB BUILDS OVER THE YUKON AND
BC, THE EAST TO WEST FACING CHANNELS WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS. SPECIFICALLY, THE NORTH AND CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH
AND EAST, DEPENDENT ON THE CHANNEL ORIENTATION. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO CREATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGE. THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND STRENGTHS
NEAR JUNEAU AND TAKU INLET. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE THE
STRONGEST MOUNTAIN WAVE, JUNEAU HAS A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER INSIDE WATERS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF NORTHERLY 15 TO 25
KTS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS
THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. TIMES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TO END THE WEEK, ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW IS ASSISTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
THIS LOW, BUT BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST SUNDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND PAYA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BRING SHOWERS MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TODAY IS LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR PAGS, PAJN AND PAYA THROUGH THE
EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS, THEN PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES AND PASI,
BECOMING 10 TO 15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LLWS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP, MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE SE GULF COAST, INCLUDING
PASI AND PAKW.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GALE FORCE
EASTERLIES IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE SE GULF. EXPECTING TO SEE A LONGER
DURATION PERIOD OF WINDS EXCEEDING A STRONG BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY, RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 15 TO 25 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A DISTINCT SOUTHEAST SWELL.
INNER WATERS: LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PREDOMINANTLY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH AND STRONG NORTHERLIES
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. EXPECTING TO SEE A GRADUAL
PICKUP IN NORTHERLY WINDS IN GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL, AND OUT OF
TAKU INLET TOMORROW EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY TO A NEAR GALE. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FREEZING SPRAY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS, BOTH
WATER TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FAR TOO WARM FOR ANY
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH TO SOUTH
CHANNELS DOWN TO SUMNER STRAIT, WHERE EASTERLIES ARE DOMINANT TO A
FRESH BREEZE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NC
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