282
FXAK67 PAJK 280043
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
- IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL EVENT BEGINNING ON SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A FOLLOW UP
SNOW EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
RAIN LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF.
SHORT TERM
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BARANOF ISLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE NORTH HAVE KEPT
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY. THE LIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NEW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES. THESE WIDELY SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS ARE SEPARATE
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEMS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, A LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE
DEEPENING. THIS WILL BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA
WITH RATES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM
OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST WITH A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. SOME
AREAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER. SNOW WILL THEN END ON
THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW, FROM SITKA TO JUNEAU NORTHWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
GUSTAVUS TO POW AND HYDER. AREAS TO THE NORTH (YAKUTAT, HAINES,
SKAGWAY) ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY. FOR THE KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA AREAS, 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY SEE MIXING WITH RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT
THEN REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL LIKELY HOVER IN VICINITY OF SUMNER STRAIT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW FOR THE PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREAS AND LIGHTER SNOW NORTHWARD. A SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN.
LONG TERM
WINTER CONTINUES TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL HELP TO ANCHOR HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND DRIVE COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE EXCESSIVELY
STRONG (AROUND 1040 MB), THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND OVERALL STAYING POWER. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALSO STEER MORE STORMS AND SHORT WAVE FEATURES INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVERALL, BEING A CLASSIC SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING TO BRING
AMPLE SNOW TO A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. AFTER THE FIRST INFLUX OF
SNOW IMPACTS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
AND/OR DECREASE IN RATES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
BEFORE IT RAMPS UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE KEY QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY STAYS ENTRENCHED.
THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP
IN THE VICINITY OF SUMNER STRAIT BY THE START OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AND HOVERING AROUND THAT AREA TO START THE WEEK.
WAVERING OF THIS RAIN SNOW LINE COULD LEAD TO HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS SNOW CHARACTERISTIC IN TERMS OF BEING LIGHT AND
FLUFFY OR WET AND OTHERWISE HARDER TO DEAL WITH. WHILE COMMUNITIES
NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL AS WELL AS
NORTHERN PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL BE WATCHED VERY
CLOSELY IN THIS REGARD. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL AS THEY REMAIN IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT RANGE
DISCUSSION, AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, A QUICK TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANNETTE ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
THIS WILL BE LOOKED AT IN GREATER DETAIL AND ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY
BASED UPON HOW THE FORECAST PLAYS OUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY.
FOR THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT, TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, AND LIKELY BE LIGHTER AND MORE FLUFFY. WHILE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY EXPECTED MARINE IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE BECOMING FEWER
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY, AND ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND
CEILINGS WITH THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGE FLYING
CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS ONE
MINUTE BECOMING IFR OR EVEN LIFR 15 MIN LATER BEFORE REBOUNDING
BACK TO VFR OR MVFR ONCE THE SHOWER PASSES. CEILINGS DOWN TO 2000
FT ARE ALSO BEING ENCOUNTERED FROM GUSTAVUS AND HOONAH DOWN TO
ANGOON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF
OVERRUNNING COLD AIR OUTFLOW IN THE INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. EXPECT MOST AREAS IN THE SOUTH TO BECOME
MOSTLY VFR INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL
LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 4000 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INTO TONIGHT ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTHWARD THAT MAY BRING MORE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AS MORE SNOW MOVES IN.
INTO TOMORROW, A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THAT WILL START TO SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM CAPE
FAIRWEATHER SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP
TO 2500 TO 1000 FT AND VIS TO DROP TO 1 TO 2 MILES FOR MANY AREAS
AS SNOW STARTS SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL NOT REALLY BE A FACTOR UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO SHOW UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST. THIS WILL BE SOME
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR DUE TO WINDS AT 2000 FT COMING OUT OF
THE SW AT 30 TO 40 KT WHILE SEA LEVEL WINDS MAY STILL BE SE AT 15
KT OR LESS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF AND OUTSIDE WATERS WITH OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA REPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. SEA STATE HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WITH GULF WATER BUOYS. THIS
DIMINISHED WINDS AND SEA STATE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THOUGH
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT LOW WORKS NORTH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TO THE OUTER COAST ALONG WITH A BUILDING SEA STATE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10-14 FT SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE AS THIS
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS SIGNIFICANT. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE S-SW DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
OUTSIDE WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOW WEAKENING WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO TREND UP AGAIN
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BUT
SOME POCKETS OF NEAR GALES TO GALES COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH AREAS OF NARROW TERRAIN. WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO SET UP, PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ320>322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
AKZ324-327-328.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ325-
326-329.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ326-329.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON AKST SUNDAY FOR
AKZ331.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-033-034-641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...SF
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