654
FXAK68 PAFC 291353
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
553 AM AKDT WED OCT 29 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
KEY POINTS:
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FOR KODIAK ISLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST AND AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO EASTERLY CHANNELED WINDS.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KENAI
PENINSULA AND KACHEMAK BAY BY LATE MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF KACHEMAK BAY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH IN CORDOVA AND ALONG
THE COAST TO MONTAGUE ISLAND FOR A FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION:
THE LOW THAT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF IS QUICKLY TAKING SHAPE TO THE EAST OF SAND
POINT THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH WESTERN GULF BUOYS REPORTING
40-50 KT AND KODIAK CITY ALREADY SEEING GUSTS OF 50 MPH. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, IT WILL SEND A STRONG FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF. WINDS WILL PEAK FOR KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH, BUT REMAINING GUSTY.
THIS SWATH OF STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLANDS BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH TO IMPACT THE KENAI PENINSULA.
STRONG DOWN INLET FLOW AND THIS SWATH OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WORKING OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOWING DOWN THROUGH KACHEMAK BAY.
WINDS FUNNELING DOWN THE VALLEYS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY
WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR SELDOVIA AND HALIBUT
COVE, BUT HOMER AND THE HOMER SPIT WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. CORDOVA AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS SECOND FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF. THIS
LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AKPEN TOWARDS BRISTOL
BAY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WITH IT. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS LOW APPROACHING, CONFIDENCE QUICKLY ERODES ONCE THEY BRING THE
LOW INTO THE GULF WITH EACH MODEL HAVING DIFFERENT PLACEMENT AND
TRACK. AS SUCH, DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS OUR CURRENT
SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AKPEN REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING THIS
MORNING. ON SATELLITE, YESTERDAY'S AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A REGION OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FILTERING INTO DUTCH HARBOR AND THROUGH UNIMAK
PASS. WINDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30 KNOT RANGE ACROSS DUTCH HARBOR ALL NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE PEAKING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH WINDS TO DIMINISH
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW AND STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS NEWER LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ABSORBING/PHASING WITH YESTERDAY'S AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, SOMETHING
KNOWN AS THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT, AND WILL RESULT IN THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE SURFACE PRESSURES DIPPING BELOW 950 MB BY AROUND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO ROUGHLY
80 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MUCH OF THE BERING, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, VERY GUSTY WINDS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KAMISHAK GAP AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
WATERS OF BRISTOL BAY. INLAND, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL GUST UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH FOR LOCATIONS FROM ILIAMNA DOWN INTO
DILLINGHAM AND KING SALMON. AS WINDS MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
AND INTO BRISTOL BAY, THE LOWER FRICTION OF THE SURFACE OF THE BAY
WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WITH A ISOLATED HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN BRISTOL
BAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 18 TO 20 FT RANGE ON THE BERING
SIDE OF THE AKPEN FROM NORTH OF PORT HEIDEN TO NORTH OF FALSE
PASS. PEAK CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. GUSTY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND THE BERING
TONIGHT, THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO GALES WILL LIKELY BLANKET MUCH OF THE EASTERN
BERING ON WEDNESDAY, FROM AS FAR NORTH AS SAINT MATTHEW AND SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLANDS, TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWARD.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MODERATES ANY
PREVIOUS WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FURTHER SOUTH, DILLINGHAM TO ILIAMNA WILL
SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS ILIAMNA. A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM DILLINGHAM AND NEW STUYAHOK INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH ARE FORECAST, REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW MAY BE THE BIGGER IMPACT.
IT HAS BEEN A COOL MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW TO MID 20S.
COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS . BETHEL, IN PARTICULAR, MAY SEE WIND
CHILLS DIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FINALLY, THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN WINDS. FRIDAY WILL SEE
A NEW LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
-BL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
FOLLOWING THE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK, THE
PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY CALMER. WHILE
STILL UNSETTLED, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE DRIVING THE PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION. A DEEP DRAW OF
COLD AIR PULLED SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE EASTERN
BERING WILL WORK TO KEEP WINDS GUSTY IN THE MARINE AREAS AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. WINDS TO CALM BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE BERING WEAKENS, BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. EXPECT COASTAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL, EXPECT A SLOW BUT
STEADY TRANSITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST MAY CONTINUE, HOWEVER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW.
-CL
AVIATION
PANC... NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AS A
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
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