597
FXAK68 PAFC 030104
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKST SUN NOV 2 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE GULF LOW) IS LIFTING ACROSS THE COPPER
BASIN, PROMOTING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE, WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS FAR WEST AS SEWARD. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION. COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO COOL, WHICH WILL MEAN THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEK AND SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, AND MAT-SU VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING, SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA ARE FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
COOL TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-
SU VALLEYS, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF A
SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND ONLY WEAK COLD
ADVECTION/COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THIS
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER PERSISTS AND WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OR FALL BELOW, EVEN A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE SHOWERS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SLIPPERY
SURFACES AND BLACK ICE. BY MONDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE COOLED ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING INLAND OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SNOW.
THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO LEAD TO
AREAS THAT ONLY SEE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES, WHILE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE
EFFECTS THAT BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA, BECOMING REPLACED BY RIDGING FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
DRY THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION AS
SNOW SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ITS FRONT WESTWARD INTO GULF, WITH LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INLAND AT
THIS TIME.
QUESADA
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
INTERACTION WITH REMNANTS OF A GULF LOW MAY BRING PROLONG SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN, A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRIER, CLEARER
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MILD OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
BETHEL AND KING SALMON.
IN THE BERING, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW FOR MONDAY, WHICH HAS NOW CROSSED INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES ATTU LATE MONDAY,
CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND GALE FORCE WINDS,
BEFORE DESCENDING BACK DOWN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR UMNAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CANADA KEEPS
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SURFACE LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING IN
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATION WILL STAY COASTAL. GAP WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
GULF LOWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST STAYS RELATIVELY QUIET.
THERE ARE SIGNALS OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING A
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ENHANCED RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION, BUT THE EXACT STORM TRACK AS IT
MOVES EAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF A RETREATING RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT CEILING AND
VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL. ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH. LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STEADIER SNOWFALL. SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAIN OVER COOK INLET.
TM
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