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FXAK68 PAFC 010145
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED WESTWARDS OUT OF THE WESTERN KENAI
AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AND INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS
INLAND TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
MAKING IT OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
UPPER COOK INLET. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S FOR MANY AREAS ALONG THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU VALLEYS. BEHIND
THIS WAVE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN OPTIMIZE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS ALONG COOK INLET, INCLUDING THE KNIK ARM. FOR NOW,
HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THESE AREAS TO TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO FULLY CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
MAY ALSO BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND FOG FREE, AND GENERALLY IN THE
20S IF LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS. THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF COAST AND
KODIAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO
COASTAL AREAS...LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD GALES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM FORCE BARRIER JET
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. DEPENDING ON THE ALIGNMENT OF
THIS FEATURE, GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
FOR NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA, WHILE A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS FAIRLY
BENIGN. COLDER AIR STREAMING SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
ANDREANOF ISLANDS (ADAK AND ATKA) TO THE FOX ISLANDS (UNALASKA AND
NIKOLSKI). THE INVERTED TROUGH IS PROMOTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, PARTICULARLY NEAR
TOKSOOK BAY AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
DRY BUT COVERED IN STRATUS. AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST
OVER THE BERING SEA ALONG WITH COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CHUKOTKA, SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE BERING SEA, INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE EAST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO END ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY ON
SUNDAY AND ON NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PUSHING A FRONT UP TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. FOR THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE PENINSULA, EXPECT
MOSTLY RAIN. FOR THE BERING SIDE, AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH CONDITIONS STARTING OFF COLDER. ONLY A SMALL PORTION
OF MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS LIKELY TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE, AFFECTING ILIAMNA SOUTH TOWARD PORT HEIDEN.
FURTHER WEST PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY LIKELY STAY ALL SNOW, AT
LEAST INITIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER, THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ALOFT TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS, TEMPERATURES
TREND COLDER HEADING INTO THE WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW CONTINUES TO BRING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH FROM FAR EAST RUSSIA.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING PERSISTENT ACTIVE AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER.
WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE WITH THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPE OF WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN. GENERALLY, EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
AS STORMS TRACK UP FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GULF COAST WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM
EACH STORM, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION (LOW ELEVATION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW) AND STRONG WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN
RECENT DAYS, LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD INLAND IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. A PERSISTENT RIDGE FROM CANADA
INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR WILL CAUSE STORMS TO CURVE WESTWARD AND
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THUS, IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL BE MUCH
LESS OVER SOUTHWEST AK. QUIETER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS UNDER PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW.
-SEB/CL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. AS SKIES CLEAR AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING, CHANCES FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL INCREASE.
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