713
FXAK68 PAFC 311258
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THIS RIDGE
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN DUE WEST FLOW
ALOFT TO MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH
EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AS SATELLITE INDICATES THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE MORE CLOUDS THICKEN SOME TONIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND KENAI MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS IN THOSE MOUNTAIN RANGES.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLANDS, BUT SEWARD AND WHITTIER WILL ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH
EAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
PENINSULA WHICH MAY BRING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
BE AROUND THE BARREN ISLANDS TODAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COOK
INLET AND KACHEMAK BAY FOR TOMORROW. THIS IS A VERY REASONABLE
SOLUTION AND IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGHER WIND AND WAVES FOR
KACHEMAK BAY IN THIS MORNING'S MARINE FORECAST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING, BRINGING
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. GAP WINDS WEAKEN BUT WILL LINGER
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH LATE
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS UP UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION UNDER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, MEANING CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIPE FOR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE BERING SEA,
THEN GRADUALLY COOL OVERNIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS RAIN OR DRIZZLE, BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISH MONDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE DISTURBANCE, THOUGH LIGHTER
AND MORE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, FOG WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE SIMILARLY
BUILDS UP IN THE MARINE LAYER UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. MONDAY
NIGHT, A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN BERING,
BRINGING RAIN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LARGELY BELOW GALE FORCE. THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT, WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND TO
REPLACE THE WARMER AIR BROUGHT IN BY HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY NIGHT,
COLDER AIR NUDGES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH CONDITIONS FOR
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THE KUSKOKWIM REGION WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE BERING FRONT PUSHES EAST TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS BRINGING PRECIPITATION. THIS
MAY BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ONLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WHILE MORE STEADY RAIN IS SEEN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS A ROBUST LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE COURTESY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY, CONDITIONS MAY BE RIPE FOR A PERIOD
OF SUSTAINED SNOWFALL ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. THOUGH WARMER SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CUT DOWN ON
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THEIR ANNUAL
MINIMUM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO
REFINE THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY TO SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING ELONGATES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW THAT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS, STORM FORCE
GUSTS, ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TO ARRIVE AT THE
SURFACE AS RAIN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN, WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS SNOW. THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
FOR KODIAK, THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND NORTHERN GULF COAST.
A NEW FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE FRONT OF
A KAMCHATKA LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD, REACHING AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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