075
FXAK68 PAFC 010451
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
851 PM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)...
A SERIES OF MOIST SYSTEMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRENCHING KODIAK ISLAND WHERE OVER 1/2
INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KODIAK AIRPORT OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS OF 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH
THE GULF AND REINFORCES THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE COAST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRIER DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. STRONG SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK/COPPER VALLEYS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST, SNOW IS LIKELY AT
ELEVATION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND EVEN DOWN TO THE TOWN OF VALDEZ FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAVY WET SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS FALL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOMPSON PASS TO BRING AWARENESS TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY POTENTIAL.
THE FRONT WEAKENS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY. SOME STEADY
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WESTERN
PRINCE SOUND DUE TO CONTINUED UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY ENHANCEMENT.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
UPPER-DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE GULF STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS THE WET AND WINDY
PATTERN UNFOLDS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. A LARGE, COMPLEX LOW
ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM ADAK AND COLD BAY CONTINUES TO DRIVE ITS
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE HAS BROUGHT IN
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. KAMISHAK GAP WINDS
PEAK LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
WAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. DUE TO LIFT FROM UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT, THE CORRIDOR OF THE MOST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS ON THE ORDER OF 0.75 TO
1 INCH, WHILE THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IS ON TRACK TO SEE 0.5 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BEING STUCK IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE AND ACTIVE PATTERN, THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE BERING, ALEUTIANS, AND NORTH PACIFIC
WILL DIG AND ACQUIRE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT, IN WHICH CASE WILL
REORIENT THE UPPER LEVEL JET FARTHER SOUTH.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A KAMCHATKA LOW SENDS A WEAKENING GALE FORCE
FRONT TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BRINGING RAINY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
-AM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OF
THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
EASTERN GULF. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRUGGLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL SEND A FRONT ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SOME
DRYING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY, BUT AN OVERALL UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
TURNAGAIN ARM WIND HAS TURNED ON WITH SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ROUGHLY
06Z BEFORE BECOMING DOWN INLET. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BL
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