788
FXAK68 PAFC 011339
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
439 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS OF 430AM, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI, ANCHORAGE, AND THE MAT-SU
VALLEY IN WAKE OF A TROUGH PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY, UP-INLET FLOW HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING OR EVEN RISING JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. WITH FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, MANY
UNTREATED SURFACES REMAIN QUITE SLICK. WHILE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE NO LONGER OUT, PLEASE CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE OR TRAVELING.
FARTHER EAST, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CHUGACH AND COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS NOTE 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF A COUPLE INCHES FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATER TODAY.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A RESPITE FROM PRECIP TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURVES EAST TOWARDS THE YUKON AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER FOR THE
LONGEST ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN, ESPECIALLY FROM GLENNALLEN NORTH
TO PAXON AND MENTASTA LAKE.
A STRONG BERING LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY, SENDING ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY, IT
LOOKS LIKELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THIS TIME FOR MOSTLY
RAIN TO MOVE IN WITH THIS FRONT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. STILL, SOME
MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR SPOTS
THAT HOLD ON TO COLDER TEMPERATURES, SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY, WESTERN MATANUSKA VALLEY, OR EVEN THE TYPICALLY-COOLER
SPOTS IN ANCHORAGE. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END FOR THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS
AND HANGS UP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AS TEMPERATURES TURN THE
CORNER TOWARDS WHAT COULD BE A RATHER DRAMATIC COOLING TREND LATER
THIS WEEK.
-BROWN/AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING TROUGH REMAIN ANCHORED FROM ADAK TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA IN THE FORM OF A FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS ACTIVE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA FOR ONGOING FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY NOON TODAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, JUST WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS. AS
THE PATTERN WEAKENS, A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AIMS TO PHASE IN, RE-INTENSIFYING THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE NEW STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT, STORM-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
PHASING BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, SIMILARLY UP TO STORM-FORCE. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS DRIVEN THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES ARE EXPECTED SUCH AS
NEAR KING COVE AND COLD BAY WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS SYSTEM WILL REINVIGORATE THE PRECIPITATION REGIME ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST COASTLINE, INCLUDING THE FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS
SUCH, AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3AM TUESDAY TO
9AM WEDNESDAY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA,
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, INCLUDING BETHEL, ANIAK, AND CROOKED CREEK. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35
MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 15 MPH FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, DRIVING THE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING WIDESPREAD STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WEAKENING. THIS LEADS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
SPEEDS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL ALSO HAVE A DRYING TREND AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. ALL OF THIS LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE COOL DOWN DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN MOVING INTO FRIDAY AS THE COOL DOWN
CONTINUES. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER AIR KEEPING MORE TO THE
EAST, WITH WESTERN ALASKA SEEING LESS COLD TEMPERATURES WHEREAS
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKING A MORE WESTERN TRACK AND
ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE WHOLE STATE. THIS ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR STORM TRACKS AS WELL. IF THE COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR TAKES
THE WESTERN TRACK, LESS ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN
ALASKA, BUT IF THE EASTERN TRACK WINS OUT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOWS TO MAKE IT INTO THE BERING AND CAUSE SNOWFALL AND WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE STORY IS THE SAME FOR THE WEEKEND
REGARDING UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS, WHAT IS KNOWN
IS THAT SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COOLING TREND.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...MIXED PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING,
THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL FZDZ
OR --SN THIS MORNING BEFORE IT EXITS ENTIRELY. LATER TODAY, MVFR
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO
NE. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
POSSIBLE BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
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