330
FXAK68 PAFC 101311
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW RETURNS TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. MAINTAINING
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY SHELTERED BY
DOWNSLOPING WIND EFFECTS WILL NOT BE AS PROTECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS UNIMPRESSIVE, LEADING TO A LIGHT ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE THIS MORNING FOR MAT/SU, ANCHORAGE, AND WESTERN KENAI.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A PLAIN RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH. KODIAK ISLAND AND
WESTERN SUSITNA WILL BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES, IT
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL FROM SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, MEANING HIGHER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANSITIONS TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL
RAIN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
KM/CL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS ALLOWING FOR
SNOWFALL. THIS SNOWFALL WILL DWINDLE BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD. DUE TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM
LONGER DAYS, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MAY PERSIST EVEN WITH THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, A
FRONT FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY, IT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG TROUGH FOLLOWING IT FROM THE WEST.
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WITH SNOW AT NIGHT AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BERING BY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OVER THE MAINLAND AS THE FRONT BREAKS UP.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FRONT
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT.
-JAR
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
PATTERN ALASKA HAS BEEN UNDER WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A COLD AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER TO SPEAK, WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. KODIAK ISLAND, IN PARTICULAR, WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH CURRENTLY FORECAST AND STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
KAMISHAK GAP AND BARREN ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE EVOLUTION OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION,
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BEYOND TUESDAY,
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BECOMES
MOSTLY ZONAL WHILE A BROAD BUT BENIGN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
OVERSPREADS THE BERING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SEE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER NEXT
WEEK.
BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A BRIEF
ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CLEAR OUT FROM THE
TERMINAL BY THIS EVENING, BUT LINGERING LOW STRATUS IN MVFR RANGE
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page