853
FXAK68 PAFC 280001
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKDT SAT JUN 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE IN THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NORTHERN COPPER
BASIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A SMALL
CHANCE (10%) OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SPEAKING OF THE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST, A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL, IN THE SEASONABLY NORMAL
RANGE, AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDIER, COOLER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS AS
LOWS DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO SEE A
BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY PICK UP SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. A WEAKENING,
VERTICALLY STACKED, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE PRIBILOFS BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD, MOVING OVER THE MAINLAND COASTLINE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY THE DECAYING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE LOW
BREAKS UP, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST MAY CREATE
JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. THESE SYSTEMS WOULD LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED, COMING TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EXPECT WINDS UP TO ABOUT
20-30 KT THIS EVENING AROUND THE WEAKENING BERING SEA LOW, AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A NEW STRONG BERING SEA LOW
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING SHEMYA, AMCHITKA, AND
ADAK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GALES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LEADING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING, AND UNALASKA
AND THE PRIBILOFS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACTIVE ENOUGH, AND PROMOTE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING TO BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG IN THE BERING
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DUE TO MANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MOVING IN, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL TRACK. WEDNESDAY WILL START
WITH SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS IN THE BERING CAUSING ELEVATED WINDS
AND RAINFALL FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE THIS TROUGHING STRETCH INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS MEANS THAT RAINFALL IN SOUTHCENTRAL COULD BE DELAYED IF THE
TROUGHING MOVES IN SLOWER. THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MORE FEATURES MOVE IN. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE BERING BY FRIDAY, WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLANDS, INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, IT SEEMS LIKE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR NOW.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DIPS INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
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