820
FXAK68 PAFC 051224
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 AM AKDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY
THIS MORNING, BRINGING A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
GAP WINDS. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE POPULATION
CENTERS BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME LINGERING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MAT- SU VALLEYS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SOUND. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COPPER RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, LEADING
TO THERMAL INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EACH DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN WED AND THU, BRINGING A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND GLOOMY
WEATHER.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
YESTERDAY EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SUNDAY. A LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL NUDGE TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, PUSHING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH KAMISHAK
GAP AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUT WEST, CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN TODAY. THE NEXT LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE CHAIN AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)
A LOW DIGS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW CROSSING THE
STATE REMAINS LOW BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH OF A CHANGE TO AN
OVERALL WET PATTERN FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK
FRONTS THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE OF A LATE-WEEK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA
CONTINUES TO INCREASE DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOCATION, STRONGEST WINDS AND OVERALL ONSHORE TIMING OF ITS
FRONT.
AVIATION
PANC...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A TURNAGAIN WIND AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH THE WIND
EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING AND CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, LATER
THIS MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE
RAIN AS SOME LOWER STRATUS MOVES UP THE INLET. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON.
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