495
FXAK68 PAFC 301411
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKST FRI JAN 30 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM YESTERDAY IS
NOW QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA, BUT A VERY
MESSY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ELONGATE, TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE, A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF, OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SUSITNA VALLEY. EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WINTERY MIX (MOSTLY RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN) FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA NORTH TO ANCHORAGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM EACH OF THESE WAVES
IS ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES
IS LOW, BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT, THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE COOK INLET
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN KENAI,
AND AT TIMES THE GREATER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO GET LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 1400 AND 1800 FT. WITH LIMITED COLD AIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ANYWHERE, PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS IS LIKELY TO BE
RAIN UNTIL WE CAN DRY THINGS OUT ENOUGH FOR THE WET-BULB PROFILE
TO GO BACK BELOW FREEZING.
BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WE'LL GET SOME WEAK RIDGING,
LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES (BARRING FOG
FORMATION) FOR MANY AREAS. GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH, MOVING INTO
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME. LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
-CJ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING LOW FROM THE GULF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AHKLUN AND KILBUK
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF DILLINGHAM WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
(UP TO 6 INCHES) WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM
KING SALMON, DILLINGHAM, CAPE NEWENHAM, THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THE BRISTOL BAY SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FACING SLOPES
OF THE AHKLUN AND KILBUK MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW, SNOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND MAKE IT
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FOR SUNDAY, ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA.
FARTHER WEST, REMNANTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR INTO EASTERN RUSSIA.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN BERING NORTH
OF SHEMYA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE DAY AS ADAK/ATKA, UNALASKA, AND
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE.
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN), SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BERING CONTINUES. FLOW SWITCHES TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER GALE-FORCE NORTH PACIFIC
LOW LIFTS ITS FRONT TO NEAR ADAK AND ATKA BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH CONTINUES TO
BE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TREND WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE ALASKA
INTERIOR AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOUTHERN
ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. UNDER THIS PATTERN,
STORM SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TRACK
INTO THE GULF BEFORE ROTATING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING. EXPECT A NEW
STORM SYSTEM EACH DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS
ACROSS THE GULF, KODIAK ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MUCH DRIER
LARGELY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS, THOUGH SOME OF THE SHORT-WAVES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INLAND. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN) WHILE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD LIKELY
SEE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT
LATER, AS WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AK
AND THE BERING SEA. STILL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION. BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION,
WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW. WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE QUIETER WITH WEAKER SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER FLOW AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
-SEB/KC
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AS EARLY AS 21Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL, BUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
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