504
FXAK68 PAFC 221318
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
418 AM AKST SAT FEB 22 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
DESPITE SEVERAL SYSTEMS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE GULF,
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL LOOKS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET THIS WEEKEND. A LOW LIFTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MERGING WITH WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A SPLIT LOW LOOKS TO FORM WITH THE NORTHERN LOW MOVING
TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. BOTH LOWS LOOK TO JUST WASH OUT AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
REESTABLISH OVER THE GULF, THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF KODIAK
ISLAND, KENAI PENINSULA, AND THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW WORKS ITS WAY UP THE GULF SIDE OF THE AKPEN.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DECREASES MONDAY AS MODELS
EACH WANT TO TAKE THE UPPER LOW ON A DIFFERENT TRACK. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK, THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY COULD
SEE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION...OR NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IT'S ANOTHER VERY QUIET MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE PREVAILING PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY
WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH A COUPLE WEAK
LOWS DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ONE OF
THESE LOWS IS NOW SKIRTING NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE CHAIN AT TIMES. OUT
CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST, A SURFACE LOW SITTING SOUTH OF KODIAK IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS INTERACTION IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SPOTS SOUTH OF KING SALMON HAVE DROPPED DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK, AND THIS MAY BE RESULTING IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION HAS
REMAINED VERY LIGHT, AND NO MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE BANDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY, SPREADING AREAS
OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND EVENTUALLY UP
INTO THE PRIBILOFS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS THE SMALL UPPER LOW MOVING UP
INTO BRISTOL BAY BEGINS TO SHEAR APART AND MOVE OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME
CLEARING SKIES EVEN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE POSSIBLE CLEARING OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD A SLOW COOLING TREND ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE SEASONABLY
WARM 20S TO UPPER 30S BACK DOWN TO THE 10S AND 20S FOR ALL BUT THE
AKPEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7) TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING, WITH THE
CONVOLUTED FLOW PATTERN DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
SYSTEM BECOMES SMOOTHER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
SHORTWAVES BRIEFLY FLATTEN A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
INTO INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW CENTERS
ALOFT SLIP OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEK, SUPPORTING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A PAIR OF EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC LOWS
BRING WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WELL DEVELOPED NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL INCREASE THE
WEATHER INTENSITY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SOME UPPER DISTURBANCES DRIVE AREAS OF RAIN, RAIN AND SNOW OR
SNOW OVER THE OPEN BERING THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE EAST, A MODERATE
LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE AKPEN ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND ON
TUESDAY, AND EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST WITH MORE
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME AREAS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR INLAND AND OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATES THURSDAY. A SECOND WELL
DEVELOPED NORTH PACIFIC LOW SPREADS SNOW UP TO THE PRIBILOFS AND
NORTHERN BERING THURSDAY, CHANGING TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE AKPEN ON FRIDAY.
- KUTZ
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
THE TERMINAL. AS A GULF LOW APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW 5000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
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