627
FXAK68 PAFC 300356
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
756 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, STRONGEST ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES.
- A COLDER PATTERN SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POSSIBLE IN COLDER INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH FAVORABLE GAPS AND PASSES. INLAND WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER, AND WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT,
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 40S, WITH COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER
AIR ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
MOUNTAINS PASSES, INCLUDING BROAD, TAHNETA AND THOMPSON PASSES.
SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL, THOUGH
RELATIVELY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS ON PAVED
SURFACES. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.
A SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL AND
THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WHILE COLDER AIR ALOFT KEEPS SNOW
LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW AND SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAINING REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES AND SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR BEHIND THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE COLDER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
LM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY,
WHICH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN AND ELEVATED WINDS
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW.
THE SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING REPEATED BURSTS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SMALL-CRAFT
WINDS FROM THE ADAK AND ATKA REGION, THROUGH THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS, AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING
AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN, INCLUDING THOSE AREAS UNDER THE RIDGE FROM
ADAK TO UNALASKA, SMALL-CRAFT WINDS WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA OF RIDGING AND IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS TIME, OTHER
THAN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS EACH
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE EASTERN BERING. REINFORCED NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GULF
WILL BRING MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES, WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED, WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE
MOVING EAST AND LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING TO DEEPEN, RESULTING IN A STOUT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PRIBILOFS AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH ITS SURFACE FRONT,
WILL DRIVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST FOR THURSDAY.
THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AT WHICH TIME THE RIDGE WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE
JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE
DRIFTED EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE BERING SEA BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR BOTH THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON THURSDAY TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE TWO MAIN FEATURES SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST IS INCREASING.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP USHERING IN DRIER AIR SO FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
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