796
FXAK68 PAFC 121326
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER
TODAY THEN INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE COPPER
BASIN SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NICE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE,
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR INLAND VALLEYS. WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
MORE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY TODAY, COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO FIRST KODIAK ISLAND AND WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHCENTRAL, THEN PROGRESSING INTO THE COPPER BASIN. THE NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST PRECIPITATION MAKER...AT LEAST EARLY ON...WITH THE GFS
BECOMING MORE ROBUST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE
TO THE NAM DEVELOPING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND AND DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH, HAVE STUCK WITH A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR NOW WITH THE FORECAST BEING REFINED AS
DETAILS BEGIN TO BETTER TAKE SHAPE.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS VARIES BETWEEN ONE STATUTE MILE TO
OVER 6 STATUE MILES AS THE EFFECTS FROM AN ELONGATED FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRING RAIN, MIST AND FOG TO THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH;
GREATEST IN THE ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THOUGH
SEPARATE THIS MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY OR LIGHT RAIN TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA / THE FAR EASTERN ALEUTIANS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS OF 5:00AM TODAY;
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTON SOUND AREA AS THE PARENT BERING LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT TODAY. THE SECOND AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING
ARRIVES AT THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE THIS MORNING BRINGING RAIN
AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
ALLOW INCREASED WATER LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDE TO MINIMAL IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS EVENING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR TOGIAK NORTHWARD.GAP WINDS
WILL BE STRONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY RESULTING DRYING CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FOG.
-DJ
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
BY FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA, LIKELY PLAGUING THE
BERING SEA WITH SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORABLE BAYS AND AND PASSES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND GETS PULLED INTO THE GULF. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ENHANCED WINDS, BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY. OVERALL, LOOK FORWARD
TO A GENERALLY SETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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