076
FXAK68 PAFC 030052
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 3,000 FT AGL AND
ABOVE, IS QUICKLY DRIVING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE, SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEARING,
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS MAINLY ALONG THE ATOP
THE TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
THIS WAS AN IMPRESSIVE AUTUMN STORM, WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTH
TO ANCHORAGE AND PALMER, OVER AN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY, HALF AN INCH IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FROM VALDEZ TO CORDOVA. SNOW LEVELS HOVERED
AROUND 3,000 FT AGL THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT, WITH 6 INCHES OF
SNOW FALLING IN THOMPSON PASS, 2 TO 5 INCHES NEAR TAHNETA PASS
AND ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DENALI HIGHWAY, AND OVER 6
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING AT HATCHER PASS LODGE WITH ONE SNOTEL SITE
AT INDEPENDENCE MINE (3,450FT) REPORTING 15 INCHES OF SNOW.
FOR FRIDAY, MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR IN THE
MORNING MAY HELP TO BRING SOME RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TALKEETNAS NEAR
HATCHER PASS. OTHER THAN MAYBE PALMER AND SUTTON, MOST NON-
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT OFF
OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, A STOUT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
GULF, WITH A BROAD TROUGH AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
BERING. THIS WILL REALLY AMPLIFY THE FLOW ALOFT AND PLACE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
BRING THE RAIN, AND TO HOW WAVES ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
SET-UP IS ONE THAT COULD BE PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SUSITNA VALLEY, SEWARD, VALDEZ AND
CORDOVA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO SOAR, PUSHING SNOW LEVELS UP
TO THE 7000+ FT LEVEL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY. ANY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM THAT DO MOVE
OVER ANCHORAGE FOR SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SHIFT AWAY FROM TOWN
AND DOWN COOK INLET FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MAINLAND AHEAD THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A STORM BRINGS RAIN AND WIND TO THE MAINLAND
COAST CAUSING COASTAL IMPACTS. THIS SAME LOW BRINGS PRECIPITATION
AND AREAS OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS A FAST-MOVING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
A 973MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WEST OF ADAK
AND INTO THE BERING SEA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT WILL CAUSE GALE AND
STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BERING
STRAIT KEEPING WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, CONTINUED GALE TO
STORM FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE EXPECTED. AREAS ALONG THE MAINLAND, FROM CAPE NEWENHAM
TO KIPNUK, ONSHORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING GUST TO 45 KNOTS. THIS
PERSISTENT WIND FLOW COULD RESULT IN COASTAL IMPACTS, INCLUDING
INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS THIS WEEKEND, TOO.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
ALL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CONFINED TO WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND LARGELY OVER THE BERING.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF COAST, WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL AID IN ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO START THE NEW WORK
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN ON TUESDAY AND DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AND LARGELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THE THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD INVOLVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING ON TUESDAY. WHILE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS FORECAST
FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN UP INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOMETHING
THAT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. LOCATIONS NEAR
KONGIGANAK AND KWIGILLINGOK COULD SEE COASTAL FLOODING,
CONDITIONAL UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND INTENSITY OF ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN. LOW PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE REPEAT DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER LARGE
BERING SEA LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE MOMENT, MODELS ARE
KEEPING THE 2ND LOW FURTHER WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST IN THE CLEAR.
BL
AVIATION
PANC...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE SATURATED AT LOW LEVELS AND CONDUCIVE FOR
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THIS IS A
SOUTHERLY WIND UP TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY HELP KEEP THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER MIXED.
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