700  
FXAK69 PAFG 190910  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
110 AM AKDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OUR MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY.  
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO  
THE NORTH SLOPE. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS  
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE  
NORTHERN PART OF THE INTERIOR).  
 
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN  
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER THEY  
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN;  
HOWEVER, THEY GENERALLY SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN  
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
INTERIOR: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TODAY, SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT  
YUKON, TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS  
THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO  
AREAS NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A  
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR, WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE YUKON  
FLATS. THE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MORE STABLE  
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND  
EAST OF A ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK  
LINE. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND; HOWEVER, IT  
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SPOTTY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON  
SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS  
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A EAGLE TO NORTHWAY LINE. A WEATHER FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BRING  
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR;  
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE  
YUKON RIVER. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE INTERIOR  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN; HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIFFER  
IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT AT THE MOMENT.  
 
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS  
RANGE AND EAST OF UTQIAGVIK AS IS MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.  
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT; HOWEVER,  
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH  
OF THE COAST, AS THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN  
WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE ARCTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT  
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE FIRST LOW ALONG WITH MORE  
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT  
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 
WEST COAST: A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING MORE ORGANIZED  
RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING BUT  
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING (HEAVIER)  
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THIS SECOND FRONT  
WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC  
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF  
A ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK LINE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE  
BROOKS RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO AREAS  
NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S IN THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE  
YUKON FLATS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS  
SOUTH AND EAST OF A EAGLE TO NORTHWAY LINE ON SATURDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE INTERIOR TONIGHT  
AND THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FOR  
MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH AN INCREASE IN RH VALUES. THE COOLING  
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL BE MORE STABLE, LIMITING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
0.25 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE  
AND THE BROOKS RANGE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES IN RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE  
BROOKS RANGE.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.  

 
 

 
 
CCC JUL 19  
 
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