555
FXAK69 PAFG 072138
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONGTHE
AL-CAN BOARDER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE BERING FROM SIBERIA, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST COAST STARTING SATURDAY
MORNING. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE CHANCE TO LAST THROUGH THE
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE AL-CAN BOARDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR & ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTING THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.25" EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5" POSSIBLE ALONG THE YK-DELTA
COAST.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, LASTING THROUGH PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A W-E MOVING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH SLOPE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM WHAT HAS BEEN
MESSAGED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A 555 DECAMETER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. AN ASSOCIATED N-S ORIENTED
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES STILL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AREAS ALONG THE AL-CAN
BOARDER COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY.
THE 555 DECAMETER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE AND MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT S/SE OUT OF SIBERIA SATURDAY MORNING, TRACKING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF ST.
LAURENCE AND NUNIVAK ISLANDS, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE THE WEST COAST
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. NOT
MUCH IS EXPECTED IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION IN COMPARISON TO THE
PREVIOUS LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BLOCK THE TRACK OF THE
LOW MOVING SE FROM SIBERIA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DEVIATE THE LOW
BACK TO THE WEST AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN FORMING OVER THE CHUKCHI ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS HIGH TO MERGE WITH THE ONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND HELP SET UP RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THOSE WARMER, SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TO SPREAD FARTHER WEST BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY,
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ALASKA. THIS IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS UP OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. IN
ADDITION, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE YUKON FLATS DOWN TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES TO
START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50'S AND TO NEAR
60 ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60'S FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLOWLY WITH MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS NEAR 70
SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70'S TO START NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE
COOLER TEMPS WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND, BUT
DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE TANANA VALLEY BY SUNDAY WHERE RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30% RANGE WITH THAT DRYING EXPANDING
WESTWARDS AND NORTHWARDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK INTO THE BERING AND
CONTINUE SOUTH TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING PRECIP TO WESTERN ALASKA, GENERALLY
FROM THE SEWARD PENN TO THE YK DELTA. WHILE IT REMAINS WET, OVERALL
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP. WHILE
WARMER TEMPS MEAN LOWER RH VALUES, THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS THE WEEK WEARS ON AS
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ENSUES AND MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED NEAR THE
SURFACE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BROAD SCALE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE STATE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. THIS LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
IMPACTFUL OTHER THAN KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY COOL AND MILDLY WET
ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE OUT WEST, ANOTHER SIBERIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WITH THIS LOW, ITS PATH IS FAR ENOUGH OUT WEST TO NOT CAUSE MUCH
OF AN IMPACT TO WESTERN ALASKA AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE MOST INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS,
BUT A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ONCE THE LOWS MERGE
TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR OUR AREA, THIS NEWLY
CREATED BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LARGELY CONTINUES TO SEE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AFFECTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERALL, EXPECT FAIRLY BENIGN, SUMMER- LIKE CONDITIONS GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...NONE.
SYNOPSIS............TWOMBLY
KEY MESSAGES........TWOMBLY
FORECAST ANALYSIS...TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER........LANEY
EXTENDED............SANTIAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page