541
FXAK69 PAFG 112306
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST MONDAY BRINGING HIGH
SURF, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST COAST.
SKIES CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY WITH
WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW STRATUS ON
THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE WEST.
- COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BERING SEA STORM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS:
-2 TO 4 FEET WATER RISES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST IN THE NORTON SOUND.
-WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.
-HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
SOUTH FACING SLOPES ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE FAR WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE, HEAVIEST WEST OF KIANA.
-RIVERS/STREAMS EXPECTED TO SEE NOTABLE RISES IN WATER LEVEL.
-STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST, EXCEPT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
TIMING:
-HIGHEST WATER LEVELS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO PEAKS ARE EXPECTED, THE FIRST LOWER PEAK
MONDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND HIGHER PEAK TUESDAY EVENING.
-HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT, REACH THEIR PEAK
MONDAY EVENING, WEAKEN TUESDAY, AND SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES MONDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST IMPACTS:
-2.5 TO 3.5 FEET OF WATER RISE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE AT
POINT HOPE. AROUND 2 FEET OF WATER RISE FOR POINT LAY.
-WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.
-HEAVY RAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH ESTIMATED TOTALS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, HEAVIEST WEST OF KIANA.
-STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE AT ANAKTUVUK PASS AND UP TO 35 POSSIBLE AT
ATIGUN PASS.
TIMING:
-HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT, PEAKING TUESDAY MORNING.
-HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
-SOUTH WINDS INCREASE MONDAY, PEAK TUESDAY, AND DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY AND INTO THE 60S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 528 DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC
OCEAN. A 552 DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND THE ARCTIC LOW
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. UNDER IT A 995MB SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND IS BRINGING HIGH SURF, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS,
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST COAST. A WEAK RIDGE SITS
EAST OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BRINGING WARMER, DRIER WEATHER TO
THE INTERIOR AND STALLING THE LOW OVER THE NORTH BERING SEA. THIS
LOW IS EXCEPTIONALLY WET BRINGING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS FAIRLY WIDE WITH ALMOST 2 INCHES OF DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 48HR 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL. THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE THE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BROOKS RANGE, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS INCREASE TO NEAR 70 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RHS
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER WEST. A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. WEDNESDAY THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY LOOK TO REMAIN THE DRIEST AREAS EVEN
AFTER THIS RAIN, BUT A WETTING RAIN IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN WESTERN ALASKA
WILL CAUSE NOTABLE RISES TO WATER LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. RIVERS SOURCED
IN THE FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEAR BANKFULL WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING.
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED BY LOWER WATER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE EVENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE STATE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALIGNS WITH THE ARCTIC
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR GOING INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS PATTERN, GIVING US GREATER FORECAST CONFIDENCE, BUT THE
STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THIS PATTERN IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS OF
RIGHT NOW. DESPITE RIDGING RETURNING TO THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, AND
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. OVERALL, CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY LOOK TO
BRING US CLOSER TO THE FALL SEASON.
-SANTIAGO
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF RECEED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. EXPECTED IMPACTS DAYS 1 AND 2, PLEASE SEE KEY WEATHER
MESSAGES.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824-825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-807-811-812-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-805-810-817-852-853-856>858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-808.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
STOKES
EXTENDED- SANTIAGO
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