394
FXAK69 PAFG 202340
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEST COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR SHAKTOOLIK
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG STORM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY AND
THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY. A COLD
AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALOFT AT 500 MB A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AS THE TOUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE WEST
COAST A COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN
ALASKA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS CURRENTLY NEAR 5 BELOW
WILL DROP TO 8 BELOW ON FRIDAY MORNING AND 14 BELOW ON SATURDAY
AND NEAR 24 BELOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALASKA ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THESE AREAS
ON BEGINNING MONDAY, HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN INTERIOR VALLEYS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ON THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS NEAR KOTZEBUE
THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WHERE IT WILL BE
ABSORBED BY AN 1000 MB LOW JUST EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. A MIX OF
LOW CEILINGS, FOG AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE
COAST. A 985 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IS PUSHES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EAST LIGHT SHOW WILL PUSH
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE YK DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS.
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE BERING
STRAIT AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S BELOW AND COLDER BY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MODELS, THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED FAIR IN RESPECT TO FEATURE
LOCATION AND TRACK BUT LACKED APPROPRIATE DEPTH ON THE LOW MOVING
EAST OUT OF BRISTOL BAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND ON THE LOW
IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH THE NET AFFECT BEING THAT THE
ADVERTISED GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS STRONGER THAN
ADVERTISED. WE INCREASED FORECASTED WINDS AND LOWERED VISIBILITY
FORECASTS IN FALLING SNOW ALONG THE BERING STRAIT, NORTHERN BERING
SEA, THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RESULT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW FILLS IN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR. MODEL
SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IS MINIMAL IN
THE SHORT RANGE AND MID RANGE AND IS REASONABLE IN THE LONG RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ212.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213-AKZ214.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
CCC FEB 20
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