055
FXAK69 PAFG 102314
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
WETTING RAINS QUICKLY LOOK LIKE A THING OF THE PAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
DRIFTING NORTHWEST OFF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE OVER THE PARKS
HIGHWAY SOUTH OF NENANA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS AND RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EVEN PARTS OF
THE NORTH SLOPE MAY REACH THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WETTING RAINS QUICKLY BECOME A THING OF THE PAST AS SKIES CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- VERY COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
70F AND LOWS AROUND 50F
- WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 80 F BY SUNDAY.
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A CLOSED LOW OVER THE KOBUK VALLEY IS BRINGING CUMULUS TO THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM
THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY AND NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY.
- NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S ON THE COAST, UP TO NEAR 80 NEAR UMIAT WITH 70S
ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS OF 1:30PM
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KOBUK
VALLEY AND WILL DRIFT WSW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.
MODELS SHOW LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT VERY
LITTLE CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH IT, AND COMBINED WITH VERY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. BEHIND THIS LOW, RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH A SLOW
MOVING LOW ALOFT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY OR EVEN
SATURDAY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS AND ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, THE RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SEE
EXTENDED FOR DETAILS BEYOND. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS IN PLACE
WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER ALASKA BY SATURDAY, THUS WE THINK THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE, BRINGING MORE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
SUNNY, CLEAR, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WETTING RAINS WILL
BE PUT ON HOLD FOR A WHILE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WETTING RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH
TO NENANA ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GIVEN HOW FAST SKIES
HAVE CLEARED TODAY, THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE LIKELY POSSIBILITY FOR
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH US FAVORING A LATER BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE (SEE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT). BY SUNDAY, EXPECT SOME 80S FOR HIGHS IN
THE INTERIOR AND EVEN THE KOBUK VALLEY AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR
BOROUGH HAVE SEEN RISES AFTER THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE
ARE NO CONCERNS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY UNDER AN INTERIOR RIDGE PATTERN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN TUESDAY AS TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS PRESENT THEMSELVES.
THE FIRST OF THESE IS EXEMPLIFIED BY THE GFS WHERE THE LOW OVER
THE ALEUTIANS CLOSES OFF, STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT EAST INTO CANADA
TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER, WETTER,
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT LOWS EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERIOR. THE SECOND SOLUTION
IS BEST EXEMPLIFIED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN STRONGER AND FORCING THE ALEUTIAN LOW TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS
SOLUTION OFFERS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN BERING
BRINGING COOL, WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT KEEPS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
DRY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHICH SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL, BUT WE ARE
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SECOND SOLUTION WITH THE STRONGER RIDGE
PATTERN DUE TO A GENERAL MODEL TENDENCY TO PUSH RIDGE BREAKDOWN TOO
QUICKLY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
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