394  
FXAK69 PAFG 202340  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
240 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEST COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT  
AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR SHAKTOOLIK  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE  
PASSES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A STRONG STORM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND  
EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE WESTERN  
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY AND  
THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT 2 TO 4  
INCHES OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND 1 TO 3 INCHES  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY. A COLD  
AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST AND  
WESTERN INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
ALOFT AT 500 MB A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA  
AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST  
OF ALASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO THE  
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AS THE TOUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE WEST  
COAST A COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN  
ALASKA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS CURRENTLY NEAR 5 BELOW  
WILL DROP TO 8 BELOW ON FRIDAY MORNING AND 14 BELOW ON SATURDAY  
AND NEAR 24 BELOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN  
ALASKA ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THESE AREAS  
ON BEGINNING MONDAY, HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO  
PERSIST IN INTERIOR VALLEYS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
ON THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS NEAR KOTZEBUE  
THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO MOVE  
NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WHERE IT WILL BE  
ABSORBED BY AN 1000 MB LOW JUST EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. A MIX OF  
LOW CEILINGS, FOG AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE  
COAST. A 985 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO  
WEAKEN AS IS PUSHES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR  
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EAST LIGHT SHOW WILL PUSH  
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR. THE HEAVIEST  
SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE YK DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE 2 TO 4  
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND 1 TO 3  
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH  
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS.  
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST OF FAIRBANKS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE BERING  
STRAIT AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S  
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ON  
FRIDAY AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURE DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S BELOW AND COLDER BY MONDAY  
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
MODELS, THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED FAIR IN RESPECT TO FEATURE  
LOCATION AND TRACK BUT LACKED APPROPRIATE DEPTH ON THE LOW MOVING  
EAST OUT OF BRISTOL BAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND ON THE LOW  
IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH THE NET AFFECT BEING THAT THE  
ADVERTISED GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS STRONGER THAN  
ADVERTISED. WE INCREASED FORECASTED WINDS AND LOWERED VISIBILITY  
FORECASTS IN FALLING SNOW ALONG THE BERING STRAIT, NORTHERN BERING  
SEA, THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST COAST AS  
A RESULT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS  
EVENING AS THE LOW FILLS IN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR. MODEL  
SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IS MINIMAL IN  
THE SHORT RANGE AND MID RANGE AND IS REASONABLE IN THE LONG RANGE.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ212.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213-AKZ214.  
 
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.  

 
 

 
 
CCC FEB 20  
 
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