678
FXAK69 PAFG 010011
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKST SAT FEB 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE.
THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 30 TO
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AND THIS MAY END
UP BEING THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE,
ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS, THE REST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WHILE AREAS OF CLOUD COVER LINGER IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, THEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH AS
FRONT EXITS THE AREA, WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE NEGATIVE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM SOMEWHAT AFTER TONIGHT, RISING FROM THE
-40S TONIGHT INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S AND 30S IN MOST AREAS DURING
THE SUCCESSIVE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOMALOUS AND DEEP COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH CONTINUES.
LOWS WILL REACH THE 20S TO 30S BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST, 30S
AND 40S BELOW ZERO IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 15F TO 30F BELOW ZERO
ABOVE 1500FT.
- NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE BERING STRAIT WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED.
BLOWING SNOW AND LOWERED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY MILDER, BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 0 ALONG THE
COAST, SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 30S BELOW.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SET IN ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY NEAR OR BELOW 1/2 MILE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO DEADHORSE AND NUIQSUT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM POINT THOMSON TO KAKTOVIK
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 65
MPH AT TIMES.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF UTQIAGVIK. ASIDE FROM
THESE PERIODS OF SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15F TO 30F
BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NORTHERN ALASKA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA AND A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA. THE END RESULT IS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THAT CONTINUES TO USHER IN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA. LOW TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE
BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM AND
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO MODERATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY THANKS TO
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THIS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT, BUT AS
THE INVERSION DEVELOPS, PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WILL FALL VICTIM TO
THE ICE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK, TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT
READINGS STILL SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC WHICH WILL SERVE TO BROADEN AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE.
TO THE NORTH, AREAS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST MANAGED TO GET A SHORT
BREAK FROM THE BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THIS BREAK WAS SHORT LIVED AS THE MAIN UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG
THE COAST WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG, BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY'S, STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AS
A RESULT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN TUESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND POTENTIALLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND..
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND WESTWARD
WITH A BETTER DEFINED UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE YK DELTA
REGION. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER THE ECMWF REMAINS JUST A BIT
FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WHEN LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, MEMBER SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPS IS MUCH LOWER
WITH THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. THAT SAID, LITTLE RELIEF
FROM PERSISTENTLY COLD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE THE MUCH LARGER DISCREPANCIES LIE
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS TRACKS A STRONGER
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH BRINGS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR SNOWFALL. THE EURO TRACKS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND IN TURN KEEPS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
DEEP FREEZE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808>810-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page