564
FXAK69 PAFG 211500
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORMY HOLIDAY WEEK, AS THREE SEPERATE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST, WESTERN INTERIOR, AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE FIRST
SYSTEM IS ONGOING ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COASTLINE AND NORTHWEST
ARCTIC COASTLINE, WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TO INTERIOR ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN FAIRBANKS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH ONLY FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH VALLEY LOWS IN THE -30S TO
-50S. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 0 IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BEFORE COOLING
BACK TO LOWS IN THE -30S TO -50S LATE NEXT WEEK.
- SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE FAIRBANKS
NORTH STAR BOROUGH, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A N-S ORIENTED FRONT STALLS ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OF 40 TO 60 MPH
LEADS TO PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR POINT HOPE, WALES, TIN
CITY, AND DIOMEDE.
- TWO WAVES OF SNOW WASH OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDENSDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BOROUGH AND
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND. WINTER STORM HAZARDS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE WEST OF POINT BARROW.
- THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE
LISBURNE PENINSULA AND AT POINT HOPE. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
- A SERIES OF STORMS BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDES INTO THE BERING SEA.
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF 3 FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE OVERTOP THIS
HIGH PRESSURE, WEAKENING IT WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING, WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND GET SHEARED APART IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS FRONT IS
BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE. SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES. BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE
A WEAK RIDGE LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO
THE WEST COAST. MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING HAS MORE MOISUTRE BEING
BROUGHT IN FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO DRAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS SIBERIA. THIS TROUGH WILL
REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. PAIRED WITH A
300 MB JET STREAK, THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING TO WEDNESDAY COULD BE UP TO 12 INCHES.
AS THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST IT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT IS THE
NORTH PACIFIC. AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN, IT WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE BERING SEA
INTO THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
PAST FEW RUNS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE ECMWF HAS HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM HAVE HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN AND THE AMOUNT OF MOVING PARTS
THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES. THE AREA WITH THE
MOST CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE PARKS HIGHWAY AT DENALI PARK. 8 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE, WHILE IN THE TANANA VALLEY COULD
SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT POLAR AIR
WILL QUICKLY FILL RUSH INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PAIRED WITH SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS COULD KEEP MUCH OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
COVERED IN LOW STRATUS, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES. LOW
STRATUS AND FLURRIES COULD INHIBIT A STRONG INVERSION FROM
FORMING IN THE VALLEYS, KEEPING IT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. ANY
AREA THAT IS CLEAR WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COMPRABLE OR COLDER TO
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
COULD BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING A RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. IF THIS RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR, THEN SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE ALCAN BORDER.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801-820-821.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ813>817-819.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ822>824.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ834-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-805-808-809-850-852-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-811-854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
DENNIS
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