444
FXAK69 PAFG 051403
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
603 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW IN
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA PUSHES A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH. AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE RAIN, POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SNOW
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN UTQIAGVIK
TO NUIQSUT. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH
FALLING SNOW AND/OR WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE BLOWING 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN
DELTA JUNCTION WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE 50 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHILLY, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW FAVORED
OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.
SIMILARLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 30S STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING ALONG A FRONT EAST OF
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WEST OF THE FRONT, WITH RAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY DAYTIME HEATING.
- BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES INLAND. INTERIOR WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING
BUT REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST AND INTO
KOTZEBUE SOUND. THURSDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UTQIAGVIK BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN UTQIAGVIK AND NUIQSUT.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ATIGUN PASS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NUIQSUT TO
KAKTOVIK ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO
DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS FRESH AND/OR
FALLING SNOW.
- CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS FROM THE ARCTIC ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES, ESPECIALLY AT ISABEL PASS. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY EVENING. A WIDE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM SPANS FROM AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCGRATH AND UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL BE SNOW WITH RAIN FAVORED TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT. ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT, THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS, BUT DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PROLONGED
DAYTIME HEATING, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS,
AND ALASKA RANGE, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, SNOW TOTALS COULD EXCEED 6 TO 8
INCHES WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS ARE PRESENT. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING,
SNOW REACHES PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC PLAINS
BEFORE EXTENDING WEST TOWARDS UTQIAGVIK. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST AND WHEN THERE IS FALLING AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ARE UNCERTAIN RIGHT
NOW, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES, MAINLY
BETWEEN NUIQSUT AND UTQIAGVIK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH ACROSS THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND PARTS OF
THE YUKON FLATS, BUT OVERALL CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.
ONCE THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
BEAUFORT SEA, BROAD SCALE TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE STATE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR REACHING AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING, FROST MAY DEVELOP ON VEHICLES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND POSE A THREAT TO ANYONE GETTING A HEAD START ON THEIR GARDENS
THIS YEAR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH IS PRODUCING A NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS ALASKA. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL WORK WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOWER
OVER WESTERN ALASKA TO BRING COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST
OF NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE DRY COLD NORTHERLY AIR
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST REGIONS FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ADVECTING
ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WHICH
WILL EXPAND INTO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AS THE
LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS PREDICT SNOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHTER SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING DECENT
LIGHTNING CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WHICH I WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON.
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES US TOWARDS A PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE OF
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY CLOUDIER SKIES WITH
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
IN THAT IT WANTS TO BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE, BUT GIVEN THAT IT'S THE
EXCEPTION AND THAT IT KEEPS TRYING TO ESTABLISH THIS PATTERN WITH
LITTLE SUCCESS IN PREVIOUS RUNS, I'VE ELECTED TO HEAVILY DISCOUNT
ITS SOLUTION.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ805.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
CS/JT
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