254
FXAK69 PAFG 282310
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW AND AREAS OF WINTRY MIX. WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY ALONG THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM, BUT COULD
REACH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THERE PRIMARILY THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN QUICKLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE REGION BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS INCREASING TO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. THE YUKON FLATS
NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE REMAINS COLDER WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
- CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY NIGHT SEES AREAS OF FLURRIES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.
- WETTER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
STARTS LIGHT AS SNOW, BUT BECOMES HEAVIER AND WETTER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW WINTRY MIX TO BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER YUKON TO
UPPER KUSKOKWIM PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 30S.
- NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA, KOBUK VALLEY, AND CHUKCHI
SEA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
- CHANCES OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND WINTRY MIX FROM THE YUKON
DELTA EAST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM INCREASE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES SATURDAY AND REMAIN WARMER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG STILL LINGER. AREAS WITH LINGERING FOG COULD SEE A GLAZE
OF ICE FORM ON SURFACES MAKING THEM SLICK.
- EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COASTLINE. WEST OF POINT BARROW WILL SEE WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND GUST UP 25 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FRIDAY, A 546 DECAMETER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SITS AT THE TOP OF A
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND A 516 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS. THIS
LOW PUSHES WARMER, WETTER AIR TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND REACHES THE ALEUTIANS EARLY MONDAY. THE
WARM, MOIST AIR BRINGS WITH IT HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX TO
THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM AS WELL AS LESSER POTENTIAL TO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. FURTHER NORTH MOSTLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED WHICH COULD PRODUCE UP TO 12 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, MONDAY NIGHT, THE
FIRST INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM A LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
WILL HAVE MOSTLY PASSED. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SMALLER LOW ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER
ONE. HOW THESE TWO LOWS COMBINE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ENDS UP. THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THESE FEATURES DEVELOP, BUT AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
AND SOME WINTRY MIX ARE VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINTRY
MIX WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH MOSTLY
SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
AFTERWARDS, THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY SEES HIGHER PRESSURE MOVE
EAST FROM SIBERIA OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA QUICKLY PUSHING OUT ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE AND RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE
IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING. ANY RAIN FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL FREEZE WHEN THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES
COME IN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-860.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817-856-857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
STOKES
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