028
FXAK69 PAFG 130006
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY
FOCUSING CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH NUMEROUS VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
30F AND 50F BELOW ZERO. A SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AK PANHANDLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NEAR THE FRONT. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY
SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- FOR ISABEL PASS, PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW ADDS UP TO 6-10 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH.
- SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE 1000FT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- CLOUDS SHIFT WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. UP TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR, POSSIBLY AS FAR
WEST AS FAIRBANKS.
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING THE FAIRBANKS AREA.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND MOSTLY CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO
IN INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
COAST.
- WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 60 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR IN THE VICINITY
OF GALENA AND MCGRATH.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ON THURSDAY.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT POINT THOMPSON AND BARTER
ISLAND TONIGHT THEN UP TO 50 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AFTER A LULL ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE CONTINUED FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
70 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS
RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 489 DAM UPPER LOW NEAR UTQIAGVIK GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE YK DELTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND MOVES INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTS ON THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH THE BEAUFORT LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. THIS RESULTS
IN FRONTOGENESIS THAT EXPANDS CLOUDINESS AND SNOW CHANCES WESTWARD
WHILE ALSO SHIFTING THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. SNOW IS
WORKING INTO A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS SO WE'RE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
SOUTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING ISABEL
PASS WERE 6-8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER TO MOST OF ALASKA. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA COMBINED WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS (+3 STANDARD
DEVIATION) RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR HAWAII INDICATING A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FLOWING NORTH INTO ALASKA. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, STRONG SOUTHERLY
CHINOOK WINDS, AND LOCALIZED MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES. A STRONG
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR INCLUDING SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. A VERY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO SET UP ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE
THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL COULD RENEW BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
ATIGUN PASS. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MAY ALSO FOCUS A BAND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RATES, BUT RELATIVELY FAST FRONTAL MOTION SHOULD LIMIT
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT'S ALSO UNCLEAR HOW MUCH WARM/DRY
CHINOOK FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OR MIX P-TYPES CLOSER
TO THE AK RANGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH-IMPACT SYSTEM AT THE SHORT TERM/EXTENDED TIME FRAME
INTERFACE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY INTO FRI
NIGHT LEAVING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TWO SMALLER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME TO BRING BANDS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PERHAPS
THE BEST NEWS IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WARMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THE
RESULT OF THE INTENSE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ849-850.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809-828>830-852.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805-831>834-846.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
KUTTA
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