692
FXAK69 PAFG 291411
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
611 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE TODAY SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF ALASKA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA, A COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY,
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.30" AND 0.40" POSSIBLE. WINDS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA AND CANADA BUILD FURTHER
INLAND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW 70S EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
- LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TOTALING AS HIGH AS 0.30" AND 0.40"
POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TODAY. WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING TO AROUND 70F IN THE VALLEYS
BY TUESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE, WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH
THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
TUESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE, WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS WEAKEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE TODAY SITUATED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA THIS WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE ARCTIC LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
FOLLOWING A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE. WETTING
RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM SOUTHEAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 0.30 TO 0.40" THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY. A
SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE STATE TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BROAD SCALE RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE STATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA AND CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS A WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS IS BROUGHT IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM
THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE LOW TRACKING EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BEFORE MOVING
OFF INTO CANADA BY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, THOUGH THEY ARE GRADUALLY MOVING FARTHER SOUTH. THE BULK OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM EAGLE TO GALENA SOUTH TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN AK RANGE. THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THEM AROUND THE AK RANGE, THEN SUNDAY
CONSISTS OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
FAIRBANKS, TOWARDS NORTHWAY AND IN THE NORTHERN AK RANGE AS A FRONT
INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY MAY BE AS HIGH AS 0.30”.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS, WETTING RAINS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S
TODAY BUT DO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40% IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
WITH SOME ISOLATED 20S IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE KOBUK VALLEY
TO KALTAG. RHS WILL DROP IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD 25 TO 30% READINGS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE
KOYUKUK/KOBUK VALLEYS, BUT REMAIN AROUND 30 TO 40% SOUTH OF THERE.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ANY ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY, BUT GUSTS WILL ONLY BE UP TO 15 MPH
FOR MOST SPOTS. ON SUNDAY, THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ONCE MORE
THROUGH THE AK RANGE PASSES AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
INTERIOR. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A DRYING WEEK WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL
INTO THE 70S FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. AS OF NOW, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: RIVER WATCH HAS CONCLUDED AS OF 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ICE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHANNELS INTO THE MOUTH WITH RELATIVE
EASE AND WITH UPSTREAM ICE MOVING UNHINDERED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL
USE CAUTION NEAR THE BANKS AS THE ICE RUN CONTINUES TO BE VERY
DYNAMIC AND WATER LEVELS CAN FLUCTUATE QUICKLY.
ALL FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
ST. MARY'S: AT 840PM TUESDAY, FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE HIGH WATER AND INUNDATION, THIS PROCESS
COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND
AREAS THAT WERE FLOODED.
EMMONAK: WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. THE ROADS TO THE AIRPORT REMAIN
IMPASSABLE BY VEHICLE AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN
AND AROUND HIGH WATER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE TRANSITION TOWARD A WARMER, MORE STABLE REGIME REMAINS ON TRACK
AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND EXITING INTO CANADA. WHILE THIS
FEATURE MAINTAINS LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SIBERIAN RIDGE WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO
EAST. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON SUNDAY MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED DRYING AND REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
TANANA VALLEY BEFORE THE RIDGE FULLY TAKES HOLD BY MONDAY. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS,
WHILE STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE WEST COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SANTIAGO
BIANCO - FIRE WEATHER
SATCHER - EXTENDED
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