532
FXAK69 PAFG 081237
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
437 AM AKDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
WAY OUT WITH PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL FORM ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SOME EARLY SEASON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN, APART FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULD OCCUR.
- COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. SIMILARLY, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE LOW 30S, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
- GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY, FOR THE
SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND DALTON HWY SUMMITS, WINDS
COULD GET UP TO 35 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY, CHANCES ARE BEST NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. SUNDAY, CHANCES LOOK
LESS LIKELY AND MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COOL, DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WILL BE COLDER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE LOW 30S
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE STRAIT BY THE EVENING. STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, PEAKING SATURDAY EVENING.
- SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID.
- A FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, PRODUCING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAILY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST PLACES.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AT TIMES GUSTY, WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ALONG THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE WINDS
PEAK UPWARDS OF 40 MPH.
- NORTHERLY GAP WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE PASSES ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY
SOURCE OF THE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER THIS WEEK, WILL BEGIN TO
WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MORNING, THE LOW IS 526 DAM OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER CANADA WILL POINT FLOW MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH,
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO GET FARTHER NORTH INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
ARCTIC OCEAN IS CREATING A PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE STATE. A 528 DAM LOW, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 981 MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW, WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF
ALASKA FROM THE PACIFIC, FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES, THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE LOW CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY, FURTHER TIGHTENING
THE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE ARCTIC AND WEST
COAST WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR POINT
HOPE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AND BERING STRAIT WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
A SWATH OF MOISTURE TRAVELS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE LOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
CAUSING IT TO DEEPEN AS IT TO DEEPEN OVER BRISTOL BAY.
SUNDAY, THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS NOW A BROAD 519 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST. IT
WILL SEND A FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONALLY AVERAGE OR ABOVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TODAY. THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
REACHING 60. AREAS THAT SEE A QUICK WARM UP, ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND, MAY ALSO SEE QUICK DROPS IN RH AS WELL. MINIMUM RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30% AND 40% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH FOR THE YUKON
FLATS, YK DELTA, AND SW INTERIOR TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ISOLATED TODAY, BUT POSSIBLY MORE SCATTERED ON SATURDAY IN THE SE
INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY EAGLE, AND ON SUNDAY IN TANANA VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR CHALKYITSIK.
PUBLIC REPORTS OF AN ICE JAM ALONG THE DRAANJIK HAS RESULTED IN A
RAPID RIVER RISE.
BREAKUP CONTINUES ALONG THE UPPER YUKON AS EAGLE BROKE UP EARLIER
THIS WEEK. AS OF EARLIER THIS MORNING, A 25 MILE RUN OF ICE IS
MOVING THROUGH CIRCLE WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT PASS THE JAM SPOTS.
UPSTREAM OF EAGLE THE RIVER CONTINUES TO BREAKUP. ADDITIONAL DELAYED
ICE RUNS WILL HAPPEN THERE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE RIVERS CONTINUED TO RISE WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REMAINING
IN ACTION STAGE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH RIVER FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CIRCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY TO THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT GOING INTO MONDAY AND TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT,
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE
FORM OF RAIN, AS SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, THOUGH SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OVER THE BERING
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM LOWER LATITUDES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK. ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED FOR THE INTERIOR INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY MORNING AS A NEW LOW IS LIKELY TO
ENTER THE BERING SEA ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND LOW IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BRING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER NORTHERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ223.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PCS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
FOR PCS.
JT/EK/SCL
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