731  
FXAK69 PAFG 182230  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
230 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE IN A SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN  
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WILL RECEIVE OCCASIONAL RAIN DURING THIS  
TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE WILL RECEIVE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...UNTIL MORE  
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES UP AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS COLDER  
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY...BUT WARMS INTO  
THE 50S AGAIN BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
 
 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.  
 
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...  
 
- OCCASIONAL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY WEST OF A HUSLIA-  
MCGRATH LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.  
 
- WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE AND 15 MPH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH  
SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY FOR SATURDAY...60S NEAR THE WEST  
COAST...70S IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY.  
 
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...  
 
- EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY...  
DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH SUNDAY.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE  
BROOKS RANGE THIS WEEKEND.  
 
- GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW  
60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH 70S POSSIBLE IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN.  
 

 
   
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN A  
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL  
THIS EVENING BUT MORE THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
FORMATION IS FAVORED OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND EASTERN  
ALASKAN RANGE. STORMS WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE BROOKS RANGE THIS  
WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY WEST OF  
HUSLIA-MCGRATH LINE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT FOR 60S ALONG THE WEST  
COAST WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS COLDER  
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY... BUT WARMS INTO  
THE 50S AGAIN BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE WEST  
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR; CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HANG ON  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND EVEN THE NORTH SLOPE. SOUTHWEST  
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE RAINFALL AND  
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE INTERIOR. RHS LOOK TO REMAIN PLENTY  
WET IN THESE PATTERNS, MAINLY ABOVE 40% WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE  
30-40% RANGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY EACH DAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE  
YUKON FLATS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS  
WILL GUST TO 30 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL  
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE DAY 3-7 HAZARDOUS RAINFALL PROJECTIONS BY  
WPC .  
 

 
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A  
LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING SEA BY SUNDAY...AND THEN UP NEAR  
THE BERING STRAIT BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS  
PUSHED EAST OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON AND BREAKS DOWN. A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND MOVE UP OVER THE  
INTERIOR IN A MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAZARDOUS RAINFALL  
REMAINS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...AND ALONG THE  
DENALI PARK ROAD AND NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF THE  
PARKS HIGHWAY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WANT TO MOVE THE BERING LOW  
ENERGY DOWN OVER THE INTERIOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS IT  
TRACKS EAST. HAZARDOUS RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY.  
THIS IS A WET PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY SETTLE DOWN OUR WILDFIRE  
ACTIVITY EVEN MORE. EVEN THE YUKON FLATS COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD  
RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE  
 

 
   
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
 
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AK...NONE.  
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850-851.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-815-858.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.  
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.  
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.  
 

 
 

 
 
MAIER/PARK (FWX)  
 
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