331
FXAK69 PAFG 132204
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKDT WED AUG 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNT WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH,
WITH NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND
YUKON FLATS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND OW 70S.
- A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (40-50%), WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (50-60% CHANCE) ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING
OUT OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN YUKON DELTA AND LISBURNE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND MILD WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (40-50% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTHERN YUKON DELTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW
SHOWERS, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO
EAST, TAPERING OFF IN THE EAST BROOKS RANGE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
LONGWAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF
ALASKA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT, MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ALASKA TOMORROW, AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY.
AN AREA TO FOCUS ON WILL BE THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE NORTH SLOPE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 0C TO -7C WILL MAKE
RAIN/SNOW MIX, OR EVEN ALL SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY (WESTERN HALF OF
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE) AND FRIDAY (EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE).
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE NORTH OF AN INTENSIFYING CUT-OFF LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO HELP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(TOTALS UNDER 0.25 INCHES) MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FEW REMAINING DRY
AREAS OF THE SUMMER: NAMELY THE YUKON FLATS AND THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, AND
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR FIRES, AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM WEST ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CONTINUED CONCERN, HOWEVER, WITH THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY STAYING DRY AND WARM INTO FRIDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, MUCH NEEDED RAIN, ALBEIT LIGHT AND PATCHY,
SHOULD WORKS ITS WAY INTO THESE REGIONS.
HYDROLOGY
THOUGH RAIN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA,
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HERE, UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, THE 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAVE FALLEN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE AREA
RUNNING HIGH. ELEVATED RIVER FLOW AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FOR 1-2
DAYS AFTER RAIN ENDS AS EXCESS RAIN WATER RUNS OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOUNDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
IN GENERAL, BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL PROMOTE MILD CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S). REMNANT
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED (30-40% CHANCE) RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ALASKA. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
MOST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND INTO
THE NORTH SLOPE. TROUGHING OVER THE CHUCKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS
WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION,
SUPPORTING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS, LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND/OR
DRIZZLE THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY,
THE LACK OF ANY STRONG DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP FROZEN PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ822.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-806-853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-810-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
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