363  
FXAK69 PAFG 211603  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
703 AM AKST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOUTH OF THE  
BROOKS RANGE TUE WITH A MORE RAPID WARM UP ON WED. A SERIES OF  
WEATHER FRONTS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL  
BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO WED,  
WHILE EAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT  
AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH LATE TUE.  
 
ALOFT...  
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST COAST OF  
ALASKA TODAY, THEN MOVE OVER THE BERING ON TUE CAUSING THE LONG  
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA TO DEEPEN TUE AND PERSIST INTO  
THE WEEKEND. A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE, THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL  
CAUSE WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUE AND THEN INCREASE  
TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS  
RANGE TO WARM RAPIDLY FROM TUE THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE  
CHINOOK WINDS TO DEVELOP TUE AND INCREASE THROUGH WED.  
 
SURFACE...  
A 1016 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE BERING  
STRAIT AS A 1011 MB LOW BY 3PM MON, TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF  
GAMBELL AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE, THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWEST. A  
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR  
INUVIK WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT. SNOW NEAR THE  
FIRST LOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES LATE TODAY.  
 
A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST  
BERING BY TUE PM. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW  
WILL MOVE TO THE YK DELTA TO KING SALMON BY 3AM TUE, TO  
PROVIDENIYA TO POINT LAY TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM TUE THEN WEAKEN.  
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTH TUE.  
 
A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE YK DELTA BY 3PM TUE, TO  
NORTON SOUND TO BIG DELTA BY WED. THIS WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING  
SNOW ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY TO ZONES 214 AND 213 TUE PM INTO  
WED.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ALOFT AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS MOST  
FIELDS THROUGH 3PM WED. GFS AND ECMF ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM  
IN BRING PRECIP NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE,  
THEN KEEP PRECIP FURTHER WEST TUE NIGHT AND WED. PREFER THE GFS  
FOR PRECIP TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS THROUGH WED.  
 
AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z, MODELS VERIFY A FEW MB TOO WEAK ON THE LOW  
NEAR BARROW, AND A FEW MB TOO WEAK ON THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BEING 3-5 KT  
STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG THE COAST FROM BARTER ISLAND  
TO THE BERING STRAIT TODAY.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ219-AKZ221.  
 
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.  

 
 

 
 
JB JAN 19  
 
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