108
FXAK69 PAFG 241242 CCA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKDT SUN MAR 24 2019
DISCUSSION
A ONE TWO PUNCH OF WINTER WEATHER AS WELL AS HIGH SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND BERING
STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS A FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TO THE INTERIOR BY MID
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR.
ALOFT AT 500 HPA, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL SWEEP INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS BACK OVER WESTERN
ALASKA ON MONDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY
AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TODAY AND MONDAY AND WILL GENERATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING.
ON THE SURFACE, A 955 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 948 MB MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES
RAPIDLY NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
TO AROUND 958 MB AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SIBERIA JUST WEST OF THE
GULF OF ANADYR ON TUESDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN, HIGH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF ALONG THE YK DELTA COAST, NORTON SOUND,
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT.
A LONG FETCH AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP BERING
SEA LOW WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO RUN
TO THE TOP OF THE BEACHES ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES.
ICE AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE PUSHED ON SHORE WITH THE
SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THE DEEP LOW IN THE
BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN ZONE 213 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
WINTERY WEATHER IS RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE ONGOING EVENT.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WHERE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED
BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY
ON ACCOUNT OF THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWING QUICKLY
ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST STORM.
THE ONGOING CHINOOK EVENT IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO SHELTER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS FROM MOISTURE
THAT HAS PUSHED EAST AND NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING
SEA. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND
BROOKS RANGE. AS THE CHINOOK BREAKS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRIM OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY FROM THE
RECENT NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO RIPEN AND SLOWLY MELT OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES NOTED AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT MINOR PONDING OF MELTWATER TO CONTINUE ALONG LOW
SPOTS, DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS AS MELTING CONTINUES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A LONG FETCH AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE SECOND
BERING SEA LOW WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES
TO RUN TO THE TOP OF THE BEACHES ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING
COASTLINES. ICE AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE PUSHED ON SHORE WITH
THE SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ217.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
CCC MAR 19
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