215
FXAK69 PAFG 042256
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST AS THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSUES AND WE BEGIN TO SAY GOODBYE TO SUMMER.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
START TO DRY OUT A BIT. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
GET A BIT OF A BOOST AFTER THE RECENT CHILLY CONDITIONS OF THIS
PAST WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS TRY AND PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS A COMBINATION
OF A LINGERING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1.00 TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN OVERALL RAINFALL BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.
- MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NOTICEABLE RISES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER FEEDER STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD SEE WATER LEVELS
NEARING BANKFULL IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
- WHILE THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY HAS MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
PICK UP OVER THIS AREA IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER
60'S, EVEN A BIT WARMER IN LOCATIONS NOT IMPACTED BY RAINFALL.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
- HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE
NORTON SOUND THROUGH HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS
MORE NORMAL TIDE CYCLES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION FOR A
FEW DAYS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50'S TO
NEAR 60 FURTHER INLAND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
AND PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
- SNOWFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW AT TIMES NEAR THE DALTON THROUGH ATIGUN PASS.
- LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE ARCTIC
COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE
40'S AND 50'S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ALASKA CONTINUES
TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.
FRIDAY MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED NORMALIZED
ANOMALIES OF UP TO +4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AS DEEP NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINED
TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BERING AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH READINGS OF .50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE ALSO INDICATING A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THESE SAME AREAS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXTRA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO DELIVER A SECOND ROUND OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE MAIN STEM RIVERS APPEAR TO STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ROOM TO HANDLE THIS EXTRA VOLUME OF WATER, THERE WILL BE
NOTICEABLE RISES AND SWIFT FLOWS ALONG THESE WATERWAYS. SMALLER
STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD EVEN SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE, THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
CONNECTION SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR,
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT DRYING TREND FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO LABOR DAY. HOWEVER WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER
THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE BERING
TROUGH AND SET UP A 996 SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING BY
MONDAY. AS OF NOW, THE GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE FOR LABOR DAY.
HOWEVER AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE RANGE, INCREASED
GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TO START THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME ON MONDAY, GENERAL TROUGHING WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS, WITH
RIDGING OCCUPYING THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS THIS OCCURS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE BROOKS RANGE,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE BROADER LONGWAVE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT RAIN
TOTALS AND TIMING, BUT THE HIGHEST TOTALS (POTENTIALLY OVER AN INCH)
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THE YUKON FLATS/NORTHEASTERN
INTERIOR COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LOCAL DRIER SPOT. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH
SLOPE, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FARTHER SOUTH.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LOW,
POSSIBLY MOVING OUT OF SIBERIA, WILL BRING RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
LIKELY IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA. THIS RAIN COULD SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
INTERIOR/NORTH SLOPE BY FRIDAY. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, BUT HIGH WATERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME COASTAL AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTON SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IN GENERAL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST HAVE DIMINISHED, BUT THERE REMAIN
A LARGE FETCH OF WATER BEING TRANSPORTED TOWARDS THE NORTON
SOUND. HIGHEST LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR GOLOVIN AND ELIM. A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE, BRINGING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK. FAIRBANKS NSB AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
RECIPIENTS OF THE MOST CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER AREAS EAST
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS CONTINUED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THAT REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR, THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL REMAIN THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOWER
HUMIDITIES KEEP AREAS EAST OF TANACROSS WITH RHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FORTYMILE COUNTRY, AND WILL BRING LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES
BRING POTENTIAL FOR DELTA JUNCTION TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE MINIMUM RHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S HELPING MITIGATE POTENTIAL WIND DRIVEN FIRE RISK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODERATE, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 70 IN THE UPPER TANANA ON SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK
INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED INTO THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
YUKON FLATS, BETTLES, AND MCGRATH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ESPECIALLY. EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT RISES IN LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH SANDBARS
POTENTIALLY COVERED, BUT THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS IN THE AREA. AVERAGE RETURN INTERVALS OF 2 TO
5 YEARS IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE HEAVIER TOTALS SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE CHENA BASIN, THERE MAY BE CONCERNS FOR FNSB.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ822-824.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ812-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ861.
SYNOPSIS.......LANEY
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY
SHORT TERM.....LANEY
LONG TERM......SALTZMAN
COASTAL........LANEY
FIRE WEATHER...CRUZ
HYDROLOGY......LEWIS
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