354  
FXAK69 PAFG 141116  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
316 AM AKDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY TODAY, AND EVEN A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS  
DEVELOPED AROUND FAIRBANKS THIS EVENING. THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF  
A DYING LOW REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTON SOUND COAST. A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE  
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AK RANGE INTO THE  
INTERIOR LATER TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHINOOK WITH HIGH WINDS IN  
THE AK RANGE AND GUSTY WARM WINDS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
INTERIOR. A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG  
THE EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BEFORE LIFTING OVER THE EASTERN  
BROOKS AND ARCTIC COAST.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER LEVELS AND ANALYSIS...  
THERE IS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTH BERING SEA WITH A 500 HPA  
HEIGHT OF APPROXIMATELY 521 DAM, ONCE AGAIN WEAKER THAN IT HAD  
BEEN THE PREVIOUS DAY. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE  
INTERIOR, WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR WARMUP. THERE  
IS A DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH A VERY  
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE  
INLAND TODAY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WARM FLOW ALOFT OVER THE  
EASTERN INTERIOR.  
 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...  
A DEEP LOW WILL CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT A  
SURGE OF STRONG CHINOOK WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE, INCLUDING  
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OUT OF ISABEL PASS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
TRACK ACROSS THE MINTO FLATS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL ALSO PULL  
SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE TANANA VALLEY. TEMPS WILL  
LIKELY SOAR INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS IN THE EASTERN  
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS. MIXED RAIN AND  
SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST, AND MAY  
EVEN CLIP THE TANANA VALLEY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION,  
BUT THIS CHANCE IS LOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE RATHER MINIMAL WITH  
A GENERAL 1-2" FAVORING THE DALTON HIGHWAY WESTWARD. THIS BAND OF  
RAIN/SNOW BEGINS TO FALL APART THURSDAY MORNING AND FALLS APART  
COMPLETELY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM  
FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A BLOCKING  
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...  
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH BERING FINALLY WEAKENS TODAY,  
BRINGING AN END TO THE REMAINING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS  
WHICH HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A FRONT WILL BRING A  
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON TODAY  
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A POSSIBLE 1-2" OF SNOW BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND  
LIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE  
THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF THE STORM WEARY COAST. THE NEXT FEATURE OF  
INTEREST IS A STRONG FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND  
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY, BRINGING A BURST OF  
VERY STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...  
QUIET WEATHER UP ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE  
WITH PRETTY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ONTO THE  
ARCTIC COAST, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH  
THURSDAY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING  
ATIGUN PASS WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DRY  
WEATHER MOVES BACK IN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO NOTE BEING A STRONG  
STORM FORCE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST  
ARCTIC AND WESTERN BROOKS ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY AND  
WARM, BUT IT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW OVER THE  
WEST COAST. THE BIG "IF" IS REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW  
AROUND GIVEN THE MID APRIL SUN. IF IT IS ALL CRUSTED OVER, IT MAY  
NOT BE THAT MUCH. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW  
ALONE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...  
THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY NOW THAT A MAJOR FLIP IN THE PATTERN WILL  
DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS  
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT A DRY PATTERN, BUT A MORE ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT, BUT NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY MOVING TOWARDS A POWERFUL  
BLOCKING HIGH DOMINATING THE ENTIRE PATTERN OVER THE STATE. WHAT  
THIS MEANS IS SIGNIFICANT WARM ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST IF  
NOT ALL OF THE NORTHLAND, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS IN THE  
INTERIOR WILL BE APPROACHING THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.  

 
 

 
 
AHSENMACHER APR 21  
 
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