595
FXAK69 PAFG 112240
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
140 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE INTERIOR HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR BREVIG MISSION AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE AK RANGE PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND
ATIGUN PASS.
NONETHELESS, AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND AROUND EAGLE ON MONDAY. THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO SEE SNOW ENDING TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A LOW IN THE INTERIOR WILL SWIRL SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IT, BUT WHERE IT REMAINS CLEAR (ESPECIALLY WESTERN
INTERIOR), TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO BY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS AND MAY KEEP SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WARMER.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND COLD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE.
- ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE.
- ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN FNSB (UP TO 5 INCHES NEAR EAGLE
SUMMIT).
- 1 INCH OR LESS AROUND CHICKEN/EAGLE.
- THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ISABEL PASS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK ON MONDAY BUT SNOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
- SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME STRATUS LINGERING IN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES (WHERE CLEAR) DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO
BY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE 1000FT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW
ZERO.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- TUESDAY EVENING, CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST
AS FAIRBANKS/NENANA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES, HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS TO CHALKYITSIK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BREVIG MISSION WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WINDS WEAKEN.
- COLD AND MOSTLY CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO
IN INTERIOR VALLEYS (MCGRATH IS ALREADY 44 BELOW ZERO AS OF 11
AM AKDT) WITH TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST BY
TUESDAY.
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC WITH SOME MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE WILL BE
ENDING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- VERY COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO SUNDAY/MONDAY,
AND MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 40S BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH SLOPE/BROOKS RANGE AS TEMPERATURES
REFUSE TO MODERATE AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY.
- WIND CHILLS MAY BE AS LOW AS 70 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A 496 DECAMETER LOW IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR PROVIDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. HEIGHTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 530
DECAMETERS TOWARDS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AS A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. IN THE ARCTIC
AT ABOUT 77N/150W THERE IS ANOTHER 490 DECAMETER RETROGRADING LOW
WHICH WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH FROM NORTH OF SIBERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC AND LOW OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL JOIN FORCES ON MONDAY AND BRING CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE EASTERN
HALF. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF VORTICITY FROM THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
STRETCHES FROM BANKS ISLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
SOUTH OF THIS VORTICITY WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WHILE NORTH
OF IT WILL BE VERY COLD CONDITIONS. THE STRUGGLE WITH THIS IS
PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BE. AS OF NOW, WE
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE FROM ~ARCTIC VILLAGE TO BRISTOL BAY. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW. THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
AFTER TUESDAY, THE BROAD TROUGH FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE NPAC WILL
GET SHEARED APART ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW,
HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THERE WILL BE MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST BELOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL
BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOSED OFF LOW
WILL PHASE WITH A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CARRY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
ORIGINATING FROM 20N. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES NORTH, A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR, THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE WARM FRONT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS STEADILY KEPT A
WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAD
PREVIOUSLY HAD AN EASTERLY TRACK BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANNED OUT, THERE
WOULDN'T BE A LOT OF SNOW IN THE TANANA VALLEY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WOULD DOWNSLOPE MOST OF THE MOISTURE. THE
ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS TRENDED TO A MORE WESTERLY
SOLUTION. THIS TREND IS STEADILY BUILDING CONFIDENCE ON A MORE
WESTERLY SOLUTION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THERE IS A STEADY TREND BETWEEN THE MODEL SUITES
THAT THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ALASKA RANGE PASSES, AND SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ821.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805>808-810-853>856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-816-817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
BIANCO
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