146
FXAK69 PAFG 242204
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
NORTH SLOPE AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. SUNDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER
SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
UNUSUALLY COLD, MOST AREAS WILL MANAGE TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT. AROUND 1-2" OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES.
- BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FRESH SNOW ALLOWS FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES PERHAPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, BUT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1+" OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPINS NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR FROM A
GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.
- STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOW THE LIGHT SNOW WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES PERHAPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S.
- MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GENERALLY 1-3" OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-6" FROM POINT HOPE TO CAPE
LISBURNE.
- WINDS EVERYWHERE CONTINUE TO DECREASE THEN TURN OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH.
- TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO IN THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN LESS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN MANAGE
TO BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THIS IS BEING REFLECTED AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND HUGHES TO NEAR MCGRATH.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW EXPANDING
NORTH THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE ON UP ON THE NORTH SLOPE. SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HEAVY WITH THIS FEATURE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS SHOULD ALL WIND DOWN.
MEANWHILE AS ONE DISTURBANCE WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
COASTLINE ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE YUKON DELTA AND
SEWARD PENINSULA LATER SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SHIFT TO A DOMINANT UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE BERING
WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD BEEP MOST AREAS (ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST)
DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE CONTINUING TO BE UNDER A "TROUGHY"
PATTERN. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT MULTIPLE WELL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO ROTATE ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE OVERALL TROUGH
AXIS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL START OFF WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY CLEARER AND CALMER
CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE CHINOOKING, THE
OVERALL GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG TO HAVE THAT MUCH
OF AN IMPACT. THE EC AND CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR 960MB LOW
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO REMAIN
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING, IT COULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BE ALONG A FRONT THAT WOULD PROGRESS FROM THE SE TO THE NW. THE
OVERALL TROUGHY PATTERN IS LOOKING TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE.
EXTENDED - TWOMBLY
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-804-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-805>807-852-853-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ815-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ861.
LANEY
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