106
FXAK69 PAFG 022234
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE THIS WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST, STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE WHILE SURROUNDING VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER,
MORE SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS.
- WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR AND IN THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES INCREASE SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW IN THE NOATAK VALLEY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATING ELSEWHERE.
- CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY PM THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S.
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR AND UP TO 45 MPH ALONG
THE STRAIT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH
DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
- 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.
- INCREASING WINDS WILL CREATE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND THROUGH HOWARD PASS ON
MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THEIR
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NORTON SOUND SOUTHWARDS. ELSEWHERE, A MORE PROLONGED PATTERN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TO INCLUDE CLOUDIER SKIES,
COOLER TEMPS, AND EVEN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE SLOW TRANSITION INTO EVENTUAL WINTER CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS
TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS A BIT UNSETTLED TODAY. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO
TIME. IN CONTRAST, A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS, BUT NOT BY MUCH. MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE ERODING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN GOING BELOW ZERO
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARDS AND DISPLACE THE COLD UPPER TROUGH, WE COULD SEE
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE HAVE SEEN BANDS OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BEAUFORT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE COULD
EVENTUALLY TALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE MUCH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARDS TOWARDS
ALASKA'S SOUTHWEST COASTLINE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES BRISTOL
BAY, WINDS THROUGH THE NORTON SOUND AND NEAR THE YUKON DELTA
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER MOST OF THIS
WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW, SO NO MAJOR WATER LEVELS RISES ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS ALONG THE
BERING COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS BERING SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
BROAD, THERE WILL ALSO BE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS
WELL LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER ENERGY IN
THE NORTHERN GULF GETS DRAWN NORTHWARDS. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES, LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS. STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS THIS ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHWARDS.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THAT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUING ITS APPROACH
TO BRISTOL BAY. AS WE APPROACH TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH, AND STALL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AS IT DOES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WARMING MARGINALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN,
AND DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
STORM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING EAST TOWARDS THE BERING SEA. THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND THE PATH THAT THIS STORM WILL TAKE LATE NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BEAUFORT SEA WOULD STALL AND FORCE THIS
STORM TO TREND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. AS OF TODAY, THE
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THAT AT THE SAME TIME THE STORM WILL
BE APPROACHING ALASKA, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
COULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TREND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE OR THE SPECIFIC SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL.
HOWEVER, IF THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTION HOLDS TRUE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND YK-
DELTA. THIS STORM WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED UNTIL ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON ITS PATH AND IMPACTS IS REACHED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS THAT THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS
WILL STAY SOUTH OF HOOPER BAY. WATER LEVELS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGH TIDES ALONG THE YUKON DELTA
COAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND
THE YUKON DELTA COAST, BUT GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 35-
45 MPH RANGE.
A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW WILL ENTER THE BERING
LATER NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK THROUGH THE BERING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL,
THERE IS STILL A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. AT THIS TIME IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT A
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE BERING COASTLINE. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
IMPACT LOCATIONS AS WELL AS SPECIFIC TIMING, ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO LOCAL HIGH TIDES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, WINDS AND WATER
LEVELS WILL RISE LATER NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL BE
FOLLOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO AREAS OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS WEEKEND OR FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ASIDE FROM COASTAL IMPACTS FROM BERING SEA STORMS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ805-806-816-817-853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ814-
860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ851-852.
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY
SYNOPSIS.......LANEY
SHORT TERM.....LANEY
LONG TERM......DONNER
COASTAL........LANEY
HYDROLOGY......LANEY
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