108  
FXAK69 PAFG 241242 CCA  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
442 AM AKDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A ONE TWO PUNCH OF WINTER WEATHER AS WELL AS HIGH SURF WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND BERING  
STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF THE PAST  
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS A FRONT  
SWEEPS THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TO THE INTERIOR BY MID  
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR.  
 
ALOFT AT 500 HPA, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE  
WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL SWEEP INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL  
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN  
PARKED OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON FOR THE LAST SEVERAL  
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS BACK OVER WESTERN  
ALASKA ON MONDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY  
AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG  
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA  
TODAY AND MONDAY AND WILL GENERATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING.  
 
ON THE SURFACE, A 955 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 948 MB MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES  
RAPIDLY NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN  
TO AROUND 958 MB AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SIBERIA JUST WEST OF THE  
GULF OF ANADYR ON TUESDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH  
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND  
THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN, HIGH  
WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF ALONG THE YK DELTA COAST, NORTON SOUND,  
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT.  
 
A LONG FETCH AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING  
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP BERING  
SEA LOW WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET  
ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO RUN  
TO THE TOP OF THE BEACHES ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINES.  
ICE AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE PUSHED ON SHORE WITH THE  
SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON ST  
LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST  
AND MOST PERSISTENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR  
THESE AREAS.  
 
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THE DEEP LOW IN THE  
BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND A MIX OF  
SNOW AND RAIN. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS WARM AIR  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE ONGOING  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN ZONE 213 WAS  
EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND OF  
WINTERY WEATHER IS RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE ONGOING EVENT.  
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WHERE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN  
SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED  
BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING WINTER STORM  
WARNINGS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY  
ON ACCOUNT OF THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWING QUICKLY  
ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST STORM.  
 
THE ONGOING CHINOOK EVENT IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO SHELTER  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS FROM MOISTURE  
THAT HAS PUSHED EAST AND NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING  
SEA. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF  
FAIRBANKS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND  
BROOKS RANGE. AS THE CHINOOK BREAKS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON SOME  
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR  
SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION WILL TRIM OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY FROM THE  
RECENT NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY  
WITH A RETURN TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO RIPEN AND SLOWLY MELT OVER THE SOUTHERN  
INTERIOR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES NOTED AT THIS  
TIME. EXPECT MINOR PONDING OF MELTWATER TO CONTINUE ALONG LOW  
SPOTS, DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS AS MELTING CONTINUES.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...  
A LONG FETCH AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING  
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE SECOND  
BERING SEA LOW WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF AROUND 2 TO  
4 FEET ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES  
TO RUN TO THE TOP OF THE BEACHES ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING  
COASTLINES. ICE AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY ALSO BE PUSHED ON SHORE WITH  
THE SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON ST  
LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST  
AND MOST PERSISTENT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR  
THESE AREAS.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ217.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.  
 
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.  

 
 

 
 
CCC MAR 19  
 
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