988  
FXAK69 PAFG 062313 CCA  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
313 PM AKDT MON APR 6 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA USHERING IN A MORE  
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. WIDESPREAD SNOW  
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW  
AND LOWER VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH TO THE  
SURFACE IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR  
AND WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND  
WESTERN INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL  
DIMINISH THIS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL  
INTERIOR AND WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ALOFT...AT 500 MB A COMPLEX LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A 495 DAM LOW  
CENTERED 300 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 505 DAM LOW CENTERED  
OVER THE MCKENZIE DELTA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A  
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL PUSH EAST OVER  
BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO  
BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG  
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN AND 500 DAM LOW JUST NORTH OF POINT  
BARROW AND A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN WILL START  
OFF UNSEASONABLY COOL THIS EVENING AND WILL WARM SLOWLY THROUGH  
THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY NEAR 20 BELOW OVER  
FAIRBANKS WILL WARM TO NEAR 14 BELOW ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 10 BELOW BY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL  
PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN  
ALASKA HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE  
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL  
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
SURFACE...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE  
TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EAST PAST DEMARCATION POINT  
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO THE  
INTERIOR. A 992 MB LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST  
GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EAST A  
FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN  
INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR  
EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS...  
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z SURFACE  
ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.  
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES  
THAN THEY WERE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. MADE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO  
ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE AND LOCAL EDITS FOR KNOW WINDY AREAS.  
 
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE: A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH  
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL  
BRING PERIODS OF PERIODS OF SNOW RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF  
SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
EAST OF UTQIAGVIK, LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AND  
BECOMING WESTERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE  
EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.  
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BLOWING SNOW IN ZONE 204 THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY IN THIS AREA THROUGH  
MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 206  
FOR LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EASTERN BROOKS  
RANGE PASSES CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES ARE  
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS THROUGH THE  
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES DIMINISH.  
 
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR: CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE  
TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND  
WEAKEN. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL TAPER OFF  
THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH  
OF SNOW POSSIBLE EAST OF GALENA THIS EVENING. COLDER TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND BELOW ZERO  
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO  
UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES  
WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR: SNOW SHOWERS, SOME PRODUCING BRIEF  
HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW  
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND  
TUESDAY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES  
ACROSS THE STATE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS  
THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
EXPECTED OVER HIGHWAY SUMMITS. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
NONE.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ206.  
 
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.  

 
 

 
 
CCC APR 20  
 
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