000
FXAK69 PAFG 202319
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS WORK THEIR
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS,
BLOWING SNOW, AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST DROPPING
VISIBILITY TO HALF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. A WARM FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THEY WILL SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST TO THE TANANA VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
ON IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT EAGLE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER EAGLE SUMMIT ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. EXPECT VISIBILITY OF
ONE HALF MILE OR LESS TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE TANANA VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRY, MILD, AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
FRIDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- CONDITIONS IMPROVE ALONG MUCH OF THE ARCTIC COAST FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA COAST.
- QUIETER AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH EAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COAST.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NOME, GOLOVIN, AND EASTERN NORTON
SOUND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THURSDAY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM KIVALINA, RED DOG DOCK,
DEERING, AND SHISHMAREF, WITH MINOR COASTAL EROSION EXPECTED WITH
WATER LEVELS REACHING UP TO 2 TO 4FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MANY AREAS NEAR THE COAST SEEING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, TRACKING EASTWARD TO BE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE CENTER THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OUT
OF THE HIGH ARCTIC TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT MARCHES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SEA, LIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE YUKON,
SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 976 MB LOW IS IN THE HIGH
ARCTIC WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST
TO EAST. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTON SOUND AREA TO AS FAR EAST AS
THE TANANA VALLEY FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TANANA VALLEY. BY THURSDAY, THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR, SHIFTING PRECIP
BACK TO SNOW. THE RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING
ONSHORE THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT
WILL BRING GALES THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND,
AS WELL AS A MIX OF PRECIP TO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY,
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE, RIDGING
REBUILDS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>804-809.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ815-818-820.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-824.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ835.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-811-812-856>858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808>810-855.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ813-859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ860-861.
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