168
FXAK69 PAFG 141340
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
540 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD UP OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE YK-
DELTA FROM THE BERING SEA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION, TODAY, WILL BE SNOW. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TOMORROW, AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SW. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY SETS UP IN A E-W
ORIENTATION ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHER YUKON FLATS TO THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA. ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY STRONGER, SURFACE LOW WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SET UP JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YK-
DELTA. THIS WILL HELP SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT AND NW ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TODAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT SETS UP, FROM EILSON TO NOME, BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY, MOSTLY
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1" AND 3".
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONSISTENT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF
HUSLIA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
- PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW TODAY AND BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY, MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MOSTLY
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. TRAVEL THROUGH
ANAKTUVUK PASS OR ATIGUN PASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY IMPACTED BY LIGHT
SNOWFALL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
POSSIBLE BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY. PERIODS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FALL TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH AS COLD AS
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS
PERSISTENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG. SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A LOW, PREVIOUSLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA,
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SE DOWN THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. OVER THE
BERING, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. BEHIND THIS RIDGE IS A DEFINED
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE BY THE START OF THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE BERING, THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE WEST COAST, HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PATCHES OF FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. OVER THE ARCTIC, A DISTINCTIVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST, PROVIDING MOST OF
THE NORTH SLOPE WITH A SHALLOW CLOUD DECK, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
AND PATCHY FOG.
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY
THE FRONT IN THE BERING AND THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE
ARCTIC. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH,
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BEFORE
STALLING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT'S ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
MOVING W/NW OVER THE YK-DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE OVER THE
BERING, AN E-W ORIENTED 522 DECAMETER LOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE YK-DELTA, THE FRONT WILL GET
STRETCH ZONALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
STALLING ALONG A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN YUKON FLATS TO THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL START OFF AS SNOW. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE TROPICS. BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND,
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BECOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX DURING THE DAY, MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MOSTLY
SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOWING PUSHING EAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT
SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALREADY HAVE BEEN SET UP IN THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE YK-DELTA, RESULTING IN GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NW ARCTIC COAST, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PEAK BY THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL TO RETURN OVER THE
LISBURNE PENINSULA. WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE, ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR BLOWING SNOW.
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST COMES TO AN END WITH THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO PROGRESS INLAND OVER THE YK-DELTA. THIS
WILL SET UP THE, ALL TO FAMILIAR, "TROUGHINESS" PATTERN ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE. A MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC, WHICH MAY CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE TROUGHINESS PATTERN AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION, A DECENT BIT OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT CREEPS IN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE
STATE, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THEY ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE MID WEEKEND.
BEYOND THIS, MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DECLINE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE BECOMING
MORE PRONOUNCED AND EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAINS, EAST OF THE AL-CAN BOARDER. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS STRONG MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
HAVING THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING OVER BRISTOL
BAY. IT ALSO SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND GETTING WRAPPED INTO THIS LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FROM A SHORTWAVE
THAT GETS WRAPPED INTO THE BROAD TROUGH, OVER THE STATE, FROM THE
LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE AS IT PUSHES
EAST, COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. BY THE TIME THE END OF
THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO BE WATCHED AS THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEASONABLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE STATE BY THE MID-WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-856>858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
TWOMBLY
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