285
FXAK69 PAFG 262333
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
333 PM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN DUE
TO LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE SW INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL BE THE HOT SPOT AGAIN, BUT WE WILL SEE
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AS WELL. OTHERWISE, A
FRONT HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND
BROUGHT A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO THE AREA. THEN IN THE INTERIOR,
WE WERE MODERATELY CONFIDENT IN HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY THAT WAS CAUSING THIS RAIN IS
DRIFTING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING VERY IMPACTFUL RAIN.
HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING RAIN, THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY AS
INITIALLY THOUGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALCAN BORDER AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE DALTON, ALLAKAKET AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TAKE A TUMBLE ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- WHAT WAS ONCE HEAVY RAIN, LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 0.25
TO 0.50" AROUND THE INTERIOR, HEAVIEST IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
- THE ONE CAVEAT IS DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MAKE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SW INTERIOR FROM MCGRATH TO
ST. MARY'S TO KALTAG. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS
RECEIVING OVER 1" OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY UNDER THE MOST PERSISTENT
STORMS.
- A COOLING TREND ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
- THE KOBUK VALLEY HAS BEEN WARM AND DRY, BUT THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN BY SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- MUCH COLDER IN THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
- A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONT BRINGS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
- THE BROOKS RANGE WILL GET SOME RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACHING 0.5" TO 1.0", ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES. LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF
RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS THE SAME, BUT MOVING FORWARD IS QUITE
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WITH
THE ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF AND AND THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA LOW.
TO GET INTO THE PATTERN, WE HAVE A 539 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING, AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH EXTENDS TO WASHINGTON STATE AND A 516 DECAMETER LOW IN THE
ARCTIC. IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS IS A RIDGE IN CANADA WHICH IS
EXTENDING INTO THE INTERIOR. THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS STILL GOING
TO BREAK OFF OF THE PARENT LOW, HOWEVER THE FRONT MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST FROM THE BERING IS A BIT SLOWER AND WILL AID IN PUSHING
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM OUT. YESTERDAY, IT WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
PHASED WITH THE VORT MAX WHICH THEN PROMPTED IT TO LIFT NORTH AND
UNLEASH A FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE. TODAY, EVERY PIECE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE MAIN ENERGY AWAY FROM ALASKA. THIS LEAVES US
WITH A MORE TYPICAL FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN THE INTERIOR,
EXPECT A FRONT ON SATURDAY WHICH PUSHES NORTH OF THE AK RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS
FRONT ON THE NORTH SIDE DURING THIS TIME, THEN SHOWERS AND WILL
FOLLOW. AROUND 0.25" INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WITH AROUND 0.5" IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, IF THERE ARE PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME
SPOTS WILL RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL NOW BE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE WHERE UP TO 1" IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO APPROACH THE VERY DRY NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND KOBUK VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS THERE AND MAY
PUT THE FIRE SEASON ON A BRIEF PAUSE.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, BUT GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN 48 HOURS, I
AM TAKING THEM WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SW AK, THE NORTHERN INTERIOR,
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN INTERIOR FOR LIGHTNING. THE MOST
ROBUST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE SW INTERIOR AND
AROUND COLDFOOT THIS EVENING.
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
WARM DAY FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 70S
AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE KOBUK AND LOWER KOYUKUK
VALLEYS WITH RHS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 25%. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH BUT GUSTS MAY APPROACH
18 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT AS A LOW IN
THE BERING SEA BRINGS A FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WETTING RAINS ARE STILL
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE, BUT THE
HEAVY RAIN (1.00"+) IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. IN
GENERAL, THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 0.25" OF RAIN
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH UPWARDS OF 0.50". THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE MAY RECEIVE NEAR 1" OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. RHS WILL ALSO BE MUCH
HIGHER WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A COOL AND WET TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR AND DENALI NATIONAL PARK
AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN MODELS
INITIALLY SUGGESTED. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS PRECIPITATION BUT BECAUSE WATER LEVELS ARE NORMAL (LOW)
THESE RISES WILL NOT RESULT HIGH OR IMPACTFUL WATER LEVELS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR, BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM TOO IMPACTFUL AS OF
NOW.
SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV FOR CURRENT AND FORECAST WATER LEVELS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCE THE STATE. A
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA NORTHWARD INTO THE
ARCTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A LOW SLOWLY
MOVES INLAND FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS BERING SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA, HELPING KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR COMPARATIVELY DRIER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW IN THE BERING MAY MOVE INTO THE GULF
WHILE AN ARCTIC LOW DROPS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND
BROOKS RANGE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ926-929-930-952.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ912-931>933-935.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
BIANCO
CRUZ - EXTENDED DISCUSSION
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