177
FXAK69 PAFG 150000
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG,
AND FLURRIES AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERALL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST OUT TOWARDS
POINT HOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE BERING SEA STARTING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS SNOW CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILD
IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG, AND
FLURRIES.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST LOCATIONS MOSTLY
OUT ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 20 TO 30
BELOW.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW CHANCES RETURN.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THROUGH WINDY PASS AND
ISABEL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH
POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG,
AND FLURRIES.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
STORMS IN THE BERING SEA LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST,
SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AT
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEE GUSTS PEAK AROUND
20-40 MPH.
- SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING IN WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO REINFORCE
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF
BEGINNING A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
- E/NE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST OUT TOWARDS POINT HOPE AND THE LISBURNE
PENINSULA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAINS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN THE SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO, WITH COLDEST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW CHANCES RETURN.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG, AND
FLURRIES. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ARCTIC PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
STRONGEST AROUND POINT HOPE AND THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WHERE GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
TRACKING SW FROM THE NE ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL
HELP REINFORCE BROAD NE FLOW OVER OUR REGION, HELPING TO KEEP A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE IN
ADDITION TO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST.
LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, A BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 965 MB WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SETUP THE NECESSARY STEERING
FLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO WORK IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS A 960 MB LOW LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, AS
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE BERING INCORPORATE INTO ONE AND MOVE UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES NORTH, WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, STRONGEST OFFSHORE AND AT ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEE GUSTS PEAK AROUND 20-40
MPH. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON DELTA.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, A PERSISTENT COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COLDEST AREAS SEEING
LOWS DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL HELP TO CREATE A
MODERATE GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUB-ADVISORY GAP WINDS THROUGH
WINDY PASS AND ISABEL PASS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS IN
THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST SYSTEM AROUND 970 MB WILL TRACK
NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY LOW
BUILDING IN THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SNOW CHANCES WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERALL
FOR NEXT WEEK. SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND OR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-806-810>813-856>858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-810-816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-817-851-854-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
MACKAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page