370
FXAK69 PAFG 191301
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH
HAS SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, STATIONING ITSELF IN A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
INTERIOR STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH COMING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH WATER ALONG THE LOWER YUKON RIVER
HAS CAUSED FLOODING IMPACTS IN GRAYLING, HOLY CROSS, AND RUSSIAN
MISSION. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COMMUNITIES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
TODAY, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AMONGST
THE SHOWERS.
- BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY. WIND GUSTS THROUGH ISABEL AND WINDY
PASS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ISABEL PASS AND DELTA JUNCTION.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTERRUPTED
BY OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR DELTA JUNCTION.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY S-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER YUKON AND YUKON
DELTA REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY NEARER THE WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT SOME PERIODS OF SNOW
AND LIGHT WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE BERING STRAIT COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHERN SLOPES.
- BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. E TO ENE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG PERSIST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS PERSISTENCE CONTINUES
TO HOLD ON STRONG. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
THE BERING LOW THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN FILLING IN SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE ARCTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AROUND PEAK
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING THE EASTERLY WINDS, FOG, AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY, NW, TOWARD THE NORTON
SOUND. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE AROUND ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND GET WRAPPED BACK IN TO THE FLOW OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING. AS THIS HAPPENS, ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESS, REACHING BRISTOL BAY COAST SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW FOR THE BROAD TROUGHING TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-
ZERO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS LOW, THIS ONE IS ABLE TO PROGRESS FARTHER
EAST, WHICH WILL BE A BETTER SET UP FOR POTENTIAL GAP WINDS AS
BANDS OF ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TODAY AND THURSDAY. TO
ADD ON, LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE LOW TO FILL IN SLOWER
WITH EACH RUN, WHICH COULD HELP KEEP THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTER
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL PLAY MORE OF A ROLE FOR
THE INCREASED WIND POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO SET UP BETWEEN
THE 150 AND 140 LONGITUDE LINES, ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
NONETHELESS, THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
COULD KEEP AREAS NORTH OF THE RANGE DRIER WITH THE DOWNSLOPING.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GAP WINDS,
COULD BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND DELTA
JUNCTION TODAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
WITH THIS NEXT LOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO PROGRESS FARTHER EAST
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY FLOW TO
RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND YUKON FLATS BY
THURSDAY. THESE WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPE VALUES TO BE
AROUND 150 J/KG, WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET A POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING. THIS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA.
FIRE WEATHER
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY THE SAME THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WILL WORK TO KEEP MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR DRY AND WARM WITH A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW, A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LARGELY
DIMINISH AFTER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
BROOKS RANGE, AND YUKON FLATS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 20 TO 30% IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND 30 TO
40% IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
THE GREATEST AREA OF FIRE CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR DELTA
JUNCTION AS STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
THROUGH ISABEL PASS. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE RESTRENGTHENS LATER THIS WEEK. A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR DELTA JUNCTION BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND DRY AIR WITH MIN RHS VALUES NEAR 25%. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION NEAR DELTA JUNCTION ON
THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER:
THE BREAKUP FRONT ON THE YUKON HAS PASSED RUSSIAN MISSION. AS OF
MONDAY MORNING, AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED DOWNSTREAM OF RUSSIAN
MISSION THAT HAS CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE. A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. WATER REMAINS HIGH ON THE YUKON UPRIVER FROM
THE BREAKUP FRONT DUE TO SNOWMELT AND THE YUKI ICE JAM RELEASE.
WATER HAS INUNDATED THE ROAD TO THE AIRPORT AT GRAYLING AND HOLY
CROSS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE JAM RELEASES.
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY RISE NEAR THE JAM AS HIGHER WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE JAM. WATER LEVELS ARE
CONTINUING TO DROP AT GALENA AND BEGINNING TO DROP AT KOYUKUK. NO
ADDITIONAL WATER LEVEL RISES ARE EXPECTED AT KOYUKUK OR GALENA. AS
OF 1:50PM AKDT, MONDAY, THE RIVER GAUGE AT GALENA SHOWS THE WATER
LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO 122.6 FT WHICH IS BELOW THE MINOR
FLOODING STAGE.
BUCKLAND RIVER:
WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND THE RIVER UPSTREAM OF BUCKLAND IS
OPEN. OPEN LEADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DOWNSTREAM OF BUCKLAND AND
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
CHENA:
THE CHENA RIVER CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWMELT LEADING TO RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW ACTION STAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
TO START THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED
WELL INTO THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ARCTIC WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS TO BLOW ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND IN THE
SEWARD PENINSULA/KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL BE A BAND OF NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR IN
ITS WAKE. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
ALASKA RANGE, WITH GAP WINDS DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING, SNOW WILL
DECREASE IN THE ALASKA RANGE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
ON THE NORTH SIDE, INCLUDING ON THE NORTH SLOPE. GENERALLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH 20S AND 30S ON THE NORTH SLOPE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ826-830.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ937.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
TWOMBLY
MACKAY - EXTENDED
SANTIAGO - FIRE WX
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