260
FXAK69 PAFG 052227
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 PM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY (SATURDAY) AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PEAKS IN
STRENGTH TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
CAUSE GRADUAL COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH COOLER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. 0.5"-1.0" OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY IN THE HILLS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS, WHITE
MOUNTAINS, CHENA HILLS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING.
- HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER
- COOLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, THEN LOW 70S MONDAY, AND UPPER 60S
TUESDAY. 0.5"-1.0" OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING EAST OF
TANANA.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE YUKON
RIVER.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- HOT, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE NW INTERIOR. SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND KOBUK
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
- COOLER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH.
- INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HOT AND DRY, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST AND IN THE BROOKS
RANGE WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN BE AS HIGH AS 85 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SNOW POSSIBLE OVER ATIGUN PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
TODAY BEFORE A LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA,
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON
RIVER. BY MONDAY MORNING, AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SOUTH, BRINGING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -8 C TO THE NORTH
SLOPE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FROM
GULF MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THESE PRECIP AMOUNTS
UPWARDS WITH 0.5"-1.0" OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND ALSO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING AND SNOW LEVELS EVEN FALLING TO ROAD LEVEL IN THE BROOKS
RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS
ALOFT HAVE PUSHED SMOKE TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FIRES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY TO VENT AND BURN VERY ACTIVELY.
ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM THE RICK'S CREEK AND NINETYEIGHT FIRES SHOULD
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED SHADING TO THE NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE NINETYEIGHT AND RICK'S CREEK FIRES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERHEAD. PYROCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR FIRES EAST OF TANANA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST OF THIS STRETCH OF FIRE WEATHER BEFORE
A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY AND NULATO HILLS ALONG WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS NEAR 1", AMPLE CAPE AND EVEN
DCAPE NEAR 600 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE
YUKON RIVER AND FROM THE NULATO HILLS NORTH TO THE KOBUK VALLEY. THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL, AND WILL NOT BE
STATIONARY. ON MONDAY, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MOVES NORTHEAST AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE YUKON FLATS AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH,
BRINGING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -8 C TO THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FROM GULF
MOISTURE AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO TAKE A NOSE DIVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND THESE PRECIP AMOUNTS UPWARDS WITH 0.5"-1.0" OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ALSO THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAIN ON AMOUNTS. AREAS NORTHWEST OF TANANA ARE LIKELY TO SEE
VERY LITTLE PRECIP THIS COMING WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR BEFORE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AREAS NORTHWEST OF TANANA LOOK TO SEE LITTLE PRECIP NEXT WEEK
WHILE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ806>809-813-814-816-818-819-822-823-828-829-
831>833-846.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ928-931>934-938-942.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ937-947.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
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