839
FXAK69 PAFG 162200
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WORKS TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY FURTHER NORTHWEST. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND SHIFTING TO BEING
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. A CLOSED LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC COAST. FURTHER NORTH IS WHERE
WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW. THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET OVERALL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH FAIRBANKS LIKELY SEEING ITS LAST 60
DEGREE OR WARMER DAY FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.
- A CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING STEADIER RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS, WITH
0.25-0.50" OF RAIN FROM CHENA HOT SPRINGS EAST TO THE ALCAN
BORDER.
- SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN 50S/60S THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK, COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EAST TO WEST ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NULATO HILLS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM
THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TO BRISTOL BAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S/50S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- INCREASING NE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST (25-30 MPH) ACROSS THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY NEAR POINT
HOPE.
- 20-25 MPH NORTH WIND THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY.
- A CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING STEADIER RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW CHANCES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST.
- 0.5-1.0" OF QPF EXPECTED WITH THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM,
SOME OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A T-3"
ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ATIGUN PASS,
LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO AROUND 3-6" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. TODAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN FAIRBANKS FOR THE REST OF THE
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WIND GUSTS
TODAY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO AROUND 35-45 MPH AT ISABEL AND
WINDY PASSES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS TODAY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY
OVERALL.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CLOSED LOW WORKING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, SUPPORTING STEADIER RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN. OUR LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BULK OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EAST OF CHENA HOT SPRINGS WITH A BROAD 0.25-
0.50" ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. FURTHER NORTH, LOOK FOR 0.50-1.00" OF QPF
IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A T-3" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ATIGUN PASS, LOCALLY HIGHER UP
TO AROUND 3-6" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE LOW. OUR LATEST FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS IT FALLS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE HIGH PASSES AND PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
NE WINDS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 15-30 MPH, STRONGEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY EAST OF UTQIAGVIK
ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER MOVES TO
MACKENZIE BAY AND OFFSHORE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO BEING OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH SOUTH OF
DELTA JUNCTION ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
LIGHTER WINDS BACK TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND SHOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.5"
ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, HEAVIEST NEAR THE BORDER. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. OTHERWISE, THE WEEK LOOKS
COOL AND SHOWERY OVERALL. MINIMUM RHS WILL DROP TO 40-55% ON TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM FAIRBANKS EAST ACROSS THE
TANANA VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A
FEW LOW 60S NEAR FAIRBANKS ON TUESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
SHOWING A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS WORKING EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN
ENCOMPASSES THE STATE. THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SEE A COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT OVERALL, WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION HELPING TO
KEEP RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LIGHT AND SHOWERY IN NATURE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-857-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page