863
FXAK69 PAFG 102223
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER FORTYMILE COUNTRY, THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR TOMORROW WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
REESTABLISH. A SERIES OF WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
BERING LOW. BROAD TROUGHING IS LOOKING TO SETUP OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WETTING RAIN OPPORTUNITIES
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED IN INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON FLATS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 85F. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A COOLING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COULD ALSO DEVELOP THE YUKON FLATS
AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SATURDAY, COVERAGE SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, OVER THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 50 AND 60 MPH
RESPECTIVELY THROUGH ISABEL AND WINDY PASS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF FNSB ON
SATURDAY, INCLUDING FAIRBANKS, FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN INTERIOR
VALLEYS TODAY. ALONG THE COAST, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE YK DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRAVEL NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW SUPPORTS HALF AN INCH OR MORE IN
THE THE YK DELTA AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA ON SATURDAY,
AROUND A QUARTER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY, AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER IN MOST OTHER REGIONS.
- WINDS LULL TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE BERING. AREAS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH. FARTHER INTO THE
INTERIOR, GUSTS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
- FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE BERING ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE WEST COAST AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL COOL FRIDAY, PEAKING
CLOSER TO 70 THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE COOLER, IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S, AND IN THE 40S AROUND UTQIAGVIK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN AN AREA
FROM ANAKTUVUK PASS TO ARCTIC VILLAGE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL REACH THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FROM THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SETTLE IN OVER THE STATE AS
THE WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOOKING WEST, A BERING
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BROAD TROUGHING IS LOOKING TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW,
THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY E/NE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN
ALASKA FARTHER EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ONTO ITS STRENGTH, AND
THIS RESULTS IN THE SHORTWAVE DEVIATING FROM ITS NE TRACK,
TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) FROM THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE TAPPING INTO A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE'S TRACK BECOMING MORE NORTHWARD, THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SATURDAY, STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FNSB. SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SPREAD FARTHER
EAST DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE CAA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL.
GENERALLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
DRY, BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE,
AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS A TEXTBOOK
CHINOOKING PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT
MORE ON SATURDAY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAMS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERIOR, THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT SOME OF
THE SOUNDINGS, LCL HEIGHTS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETWEEN
8 AND 10 KFT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF DCAPE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
FORM. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE ON THIS
IN THE FIRE WX PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY BUMPS THE RIDGE OFF TO
THE EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR AS MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STAYS TO THE
WEST. THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE AL-CAN BORDER THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK. BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK, WITH RIDGING SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST INTO CANADA.
FIRE WEATHER
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WARM/DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST
AS AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE BERING, PUSHING MULTIPLE
WAVES ACROSS THE WEST, RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS,
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, COOL TEMPS, AND HIGH RH. TROUGHING
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
WETTER/COOLER CONDITIONS, SEVERELY LIMITING FIRE WEATHER.
AS THE WEST SOAKS, SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C
BRING SURFACE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S. MID 80S, PERHAPS THE UPPER
80S, IN THE YUKON FLATS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF TANANA
FLATS, UPPER 70S EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER. GUSTY WINDS ARE A
CERTAINTY IN THE AK RANGE PASSES, WHERE 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE
FORECASTED. A RED FLAG ISSUANCE IS NOT LIKELY FOR DELTA JUNCTION;
RECORD RAINS ON WED/THURSDAY HAVE LEFT THEIR MARK. ONE NOTE, GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH COULD MAKE IT AS FOR NORTH
AS FAIRBANKS ON SATURDAY.
NOW ON TO THUNDERSTORMS, THE NORTH/CENTRAL INTERIOR EAST THRU THE
FLATS LOOK TO SEE PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WITH SOME
STORM INDICES THE STRONGEST WE’VE SEEN THIS SEASON. OUTFLOW WINDS
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG, PERHAPS LEANING INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH
RANGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION ON IF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET OR DRY. LIKELY DRY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH WETTER CELLS SATURDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING ALONG THE TANANA
RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. THIS MAINTAINS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND PREVENTS MEANINGFUL RIDGING FROM REESTABLISHING
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL LOWS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
EACH PASSING SYSTEM WILL SEND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS ALASKA,
PROVIDING PERIODIC EPISODES OF ASCENT AND REINFORCING A COOLER AND
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD AS
EACH DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HELPING MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA, WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD STILL
SUPPORT SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, THOUGH THIS WILL
DEPEND ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, BECOMING LOCALLY
STRONGER ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH TERRAIN AS EACH LOW BRINGS
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ830-852.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ933.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ841-844-845.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
KEY MESSAGES...TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER...PARK
HYDROLOGY...TWOMBLY
EXTENDED......CRUZ
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