682
FXAK69 PAFG 212219
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND BOTTOM OUT SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING AS MUCH AS 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM BETTLES TO MINCHUMINA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST YUKON INCREASES CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
- VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES (NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED), AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OVER 0.5 WITH NORTON SOUND AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE HAVING THE POSSIBILITY TO
RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE NEAR PRUDHOE BAY AND
KAKTOVIK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
- A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACES OF SNOW, WITH 1-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, WHICH WILL BE WEST OF UMIAT SATURDAY AND FROM UMIAT
EAST SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY-SATURDAY, SUNDAY-MONDAY, AND LATE NEXT WEEK THAT BRING
WITH THEM PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF. MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THE EASTERN INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER AND
WARMER THOUGH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. AS THESE
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE NORTH SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO SEE
ITS FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON, BUT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
STICK NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FRIDAY, A FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT IS BEING SOURCED FROM A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST A MORE DISTINCT LOW FORMS OUT OF IT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY EVENING WHICH WEAKEN AND FADE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT RETAINS ITS STRUCTURE WELL UNTIL IT GETS TO JUST WEST OF
FAIRBANKS WHERE IT BEGINS TO FALL APART, TURNING STEADY RAIN
INTO MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST
TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ENOUGH THAT THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. SNOW WILL BE MOST COMMON IN THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS AND
ATIGUN PASS. SNOW NEAR THE COAST IS REALLY ONLY EXPECTED WHEN
TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR COOLEST IN THE MORNINGS AS THE FRONT
PASSES AND WILL LIKELY NOT STICK ON THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GROUND.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING, FED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, BUT BRIEFLY CLEARER
SKIES AND CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR.
YET ANOTHER LOW THEN APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES
PAST IT MONDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT IN FORECAST
MODELS THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THIS LOW WHICH MAKES MANY OF ITS STRONGEST IMPACTS DIFFICULT
TO GAUGE. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES, ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HIGHER WATER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
AND EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, MONDAY, A ROUGHLY
990 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR. IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA THROUGH MONDAY. AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST GUSTY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. THESE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WATER LEVELS IN
THE NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE YUKON DELTA AND MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF HIGH SURF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
KEEPING THE REGION VERY WET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN AS THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH ASSERTS
ITSELF. ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN BERING
SEA YET AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS TO MIRROR THE
STORM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW TO BE
ABLE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT ITS IMPACTS BEYOND YET MORE GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY FRIDAY HAS RISEN
WATER LEVELS SLIGHTLY. HIGH TIDES FRIDAY CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN NORMAL FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST
MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE
CURRENT ONE. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, BUT CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
HINTING AT WATER LEVEL RISES AROUND 2-6 FEET IN NORTON SOUND
(HIGHEST NEAR SHAKTOOLIK/KOYUK) WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 FOOT RISE IN
THE YUKON DELTA. THESE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT HIGH SURF
IS LIKELY WITH HIGH TIDES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ACCELERATED BEACH EROSION.
FIRE WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN, THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR REMAINS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR
FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC
ARE SOAKING THE WESTERN HALF OF ALASKA OVER THE COMING DAYS, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THEY PRODUCE IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE
REST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
FRIDAY, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW
IN GULF THAT SUPPORTED THEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WINDS IN
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH POSSIBLE. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO LEAD TO INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR. CURRENTLY,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS PAIRED
WITH NORTHWARD STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH MIN RHS IN THE MID 30S TO 40S. SATURDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER
TO FORTYMILE COUNTRY.
SUNDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN A MILD
TANANA VALLEY JET WHICH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
WILL WEAKEN THE CHINOOK OFF THE ALASKA RANGE AND, IN ADDITION TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW
OVER CANADA, WILL HELP REDUCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND BUMP UP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LOW 60S WITHIN RHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PATTERN LOOKS TO REBUILD FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE BERING ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF ALASKA AND WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IN
THE INTERIOR, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AND TOMORROW, ARE
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE FORMS BETWEEN THE NEW AND OLD TROUGHS. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTING RAINS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO THE WEST COAST, WESTERN INTERIOR, AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RAIN, RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE TO THE POINT OF BECOMING HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ802-805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ808-809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ850-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ856.
KEY MESSAGES...STOKES
SYNOPSIS...STOKES
SHORT TERM...STOKES
LONG TERM...STOKES
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...STOKES
FIRE WEATHER...TROYKE
HYDROLOGY...STOKES
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