135
FXAK69 PAFG 182253 CCA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 PM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING, WITH A BAND MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.
- SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT NEITHER DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DROP
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE GUSTING AROUND
30 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WEAKENING ON ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS DEVELOP IN THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL. MOST SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF SAVOONGA.
- AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000FT
IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND.
-A STORM ARRIVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGS WITH IT WIND, RAIN,
AND POTENTIAL COASTAL IMPACTS DEPENDING ON THE FINAL STORM
TRACK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- EAST OF UTQIAGVIK LIKELY REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AS WELL AS IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES IN ANAKTUVUK AND ATIGUN PASS.
- LIGHT SNOW DRIFTS TO THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES OF WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PERIODS OF SHOWERS,
INTERSPERSED WITH DRIER WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES IN BETWEEN THEM,
WILL BE THE BIG STORY UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW IN THE BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS AUTUMN CONTINUES, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE ON AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS ALASKA, AND CHANCES OF
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH TO A SUBSTANTIALLY LESSER DEGREE THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND SOME PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER ARE ON THE HORIZON.
AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA HAS SHIFTED TO PARTS OF THE
WESTERN COAST, AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. BY CONTRAST,
MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN INTERIOR ARE NOW DRY.
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECKS HAVE EVEN OPENED FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE AK RANGE, OFFERING A RESPITE FROM THE CLOUDY AND
RAIN-FILLED DAYS OF RECENT WEEKS. THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY,
EXPECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TO REMAIN LARGELY ON THE
DRIER SIDE AS PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
LEADS TO DOWNSLOPING N OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE BROOKS RANGE.
THE SITUATION ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND FOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE. BANDS OF PRECIP
ROTATING A ROUND A DECAYING LOW BASED OVER THE SW INTERIOR ARE
KEEPING RAIN ABUNDANT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIVALINA, WHILE AN
APPROACHING POLAR FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING CHANCES
OF SNOW SQUALLS (AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS) TO THE NW ARCTIC
COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SNOW BECOMING THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE FOR
AREAS FROM THE BROOKS RANGE ON NORTHWARD (AND FOR ELEVATED AREAS
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA) AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DRIER WEATHER FOR AREAS E OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BE
BROUGHT TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONT ADVANCING OUT OF THE
S. THE FRONT ITSELF IS BY AND LARGE THE REMNANTS OF A SYSTEM
WHICH WAS LARGELY TORN APART BY THE AK RANGE'S TOPOGRAPHY AS IT
MOVED NORTH. AIDED BY LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR FROM
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, ALONG WITH STILL EXTANT BANDS OF VORTICITY,
THE SYSTEM'S REMNANTS WILL SUCCEED IN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
REORGANIZING, BRINGING WITH THEM A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS S OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, AND SNOW FROM WISEMAN ON NORTH. NO IMPRESSIVE TOTALS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID, AND BETWEEN
1 AND 3 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE, INCLUDING
ATIGUN PASS AND POTENTIALLY WISEMAN. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE (AND THE WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR) LOOK
SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY
DEPARTS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
AK RANGE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME MORE
MINOR PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY, CHANCES OF PRECIP LINGER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR, ALONG WITH THE NW ARCTIC COAST DOWN TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN, AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ALONG ITS SW FLANK
AND MOVES IN THE GULF OF AK, BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION RACING DOWN ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES STRETCHING
ACROSS MORE AND MORE OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH EACH
PASSING DAY, BEFORE FINALLY REACHING EVEN INTO THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE -1
TO -5 C RANGE) CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
AN ARCTIC TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST DEEPER INTO THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 500-2500 FT RANGE) IN
THE INTERIOR EACH NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT ACCUMULATE, SINCE
TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT AND GET WELL
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LACK OF
CONSENSUS ON ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A DEEPER LOW TRACKING FARTHER NORTH IN THE
BERING (OFF THE YK DELTA COAST), WHILE THE GFS SOLUTIONS FAVOR A
WEAKER LOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH (CLOSER TO BRISTOL BAY). THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST COAST.
WITH ANY LUCK, MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM THRESHOLD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY IN THE BERING WILL BRING WITH IT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IN ANY TRACK REMAINS LOW - A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
(THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME) WOULD SEE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
LARGELY FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (LESS LIKELY) COULD RESULT IN MORE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
LEVELS PERSIST. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOLDING NEAR 40 TO 55 PERCENT.
LOCALIZED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY, BRINGING
MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER. AS OF 4 PM,
RIVER LEVELS NEAR THE UPPER CHENA HAVE CRESTED AND ARE BEGINNING TO
COME DOWN. THE CHENA BELOW MOOSE CREEK DAM IS STILL RISING
STILL. PEAK WATER LEVELS NEAR MOOSE CREEK DAM WILL LIKELY BE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE AREN'T ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING, BUT HIGH WATER CAN LEAD TO PONDING OF
WATER IN TYPICAL LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY CREST BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY
THEN DROP THEREAFTER.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ801-802-804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806-807-
816-817-850-853-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ855.
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