399
FXAK69 PAFG 252123
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT THU APR 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BERING SEA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BERING SEA LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTH SLOPE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS HAS SEEN THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SEEN LARGE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
BEYOND SUNDAY IS ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN THESE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
INCONSISTENCIES.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTERIOR ALASKA
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING NEAR 60 THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR, WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN
INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE UPPER LOW IN THE
BERING SEA DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND.
SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS, WHILE INLAND AREAS
SEEN PERIODS OF RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST REGION
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO 40S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR MID NEXT WEEK. BUT, THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE NEXT BERING SEA LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE CONFIDENCE THIS PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL ZONES 804 AND 805, MAINLY DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 45 MPH WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO UNDER ΒΌ
MILE AT TIMES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH AND TRACK, BUT SOME ENERGY LOOKS TO WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
TEENS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH 20S TO LOWER 30S UPPER ALONG
THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ804-805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812>815-858>861.
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