920
FXAK69 PAFG 311009
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE NORTHERN MAINLAND IS ENTERING INTO A STORMIER PATTERN AS A
STRONG ARCTIC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT BRINGS SNOW TO THE INTERIOR. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE S
INTERIOR AND AK RANGE AND BRING PERIODS OF SNOWFALL ALL THE WAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE WARM, THUS IT WILL BE MESSY,
WITH TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS RISING ABOVE FREEZING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SNOW FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WITH BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE E ARCTIC COAST.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
THE LEADING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR
AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING. WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLUSHY SURFACES. MINOR BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH, BUT
THEY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, GUSTING TO 40 MPH OVER
THE HIGHWAY SUMMITS, WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
LIKELY OVER EAGLE SUMMIT. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES
INLAND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
AS ROADS MAY BECOME VERY SLICK. SNOW ONCE AGAIN TAPERS OFF LATER
IN THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY, AND IT WILL ALSO
BE RATHER WARM IN THE DAYTIME, WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS
GETTING CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE
SNOWFALL, ALBEIT LESS HEAVY, TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LAST
STORM WILL SEE RISING FREEZING LEVELS WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
MIXED RAIN/SNOW DOWN TO 400 FEET AT TIMES.
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING TAPERS TO PERIODIC SNOW, WITH RISING
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS.
- TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
FOR TUESDAY.
- BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTS IN
THE VALLEYS TO 30 MPH, AND HIGHER ELEVATION GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 1000 FEET, MAINLY OVER
HIGHWAY SUMMITS SUCH AS EAGLE SUMMIT.
- MORE SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WED, ALBEIT LIGHTER, WITH WARMER TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON APPROACHING 40, WITH SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA (EXCEPT SE ALASKA) FOR PERIODS OF SNOWFALL AND MULTI-DAY
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 12 INCHES, HEAVIEST IN THE UPPER CHENA
BASIN AND TOWARDS EIELSON AFB. ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK WITH THE
PROCESS OF MELTING/REFREEZE AT NIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS IS ALSO BRINGING MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND FOG TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST COAST. TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE IN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
(MIXED PRECIP FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD) AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, THIS SHOULD
SEVERELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOWFALL,
BUT IT WILL STILL BE WINTERY OUTSIDE. A THIRD LOW WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SNOWFALL AND MIXED
PRECIP, ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL TURN EVERYTHING
BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE YK DELTA AND NORTON SOUND WITH THIS THIRD LOW.
- ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
FOG ACROSS THE YK DELTA TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
- MULTI-DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE FROM THE NULATO HILLS TO THE W SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. SNOW TOTALS OVER
THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ONSHORE INCREASES TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND LOW, WITH
THE THIRD LOW BRINGING STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
AN ARCTIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE E ARCTIC ALONG
WITH BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
BLOWING SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING OVER THE W ARCTIC AS SNOW HAS
ENDED. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT THIS MORNING BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS LEADING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WEST WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NORTH SLOPE AND ARCTIC. MORE BLOWING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH OVER THE W ARCTIC TO NEED A
SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TUE NIGHT
BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND E
ARCTIC WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES END THIS MORNING OVER THE W ARCTIC.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE E ARCTIC THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- WEST WINDS PEAK TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS, AND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN ANOMALOUS 981 MB ARCTIC LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE E ARCTIC COAST.
THE SAME WARM FRONT IS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING SEA WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 580
DAM. SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MAINLAND, WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. SNOWFALL
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL COME IN ROUNDS, WITH THIS FIRST FRONT
WEAKENING TODAY, A SECOND STRONGER LOW MOVING IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AND A THIRD LOW MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE S INTERIOR BELOW 1000 FEET, MAKING FOR
PARTIAL MELTING AND REFREEZING ON INTERIOR ROADS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY, THE MASSIVE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF
OF AK, AND THAT WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE INTERIOR, PUSHING TEMPS UP
QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE E INTERIOR. CHANCES FOR
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AK RANGE. CURRENTLY,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL LATER WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL BE OVER
THE W INTERIOR TO THE ARCTIC, AS THE E INTERIOR WILL BE WARMER,
DRIER, AND LIKELY EXPERIENCING DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK FLOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805-808.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ838>845.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-813-850-858>860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-853-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
AHSENMACHER
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