354
FXAK69 PAFG 141116
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 AM AKDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY TODAY, AND EVEN A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPED AROUND FAIRBANKS THIS EVENING. THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF
A DYING LOW REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTON SOUND COAST. A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AK RANGE INTO THE
INTERIOR LATER TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHINOOK WITH HIGH WINDS IN
THE AK RANGE AND GUSTY WARM WINDS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BEFORE LIFTING OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS AND ARCTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVELS AND ANALYSIS...
THERE IS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTH BERING SEA WITH A 500 HPA
HEIGHT OF APPROXIMATELY 521 DAM, ONCE AGAIN WEAKER THAN IT HAD
BEEN THE PREVIOUS DAY. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR WARMUP. THERE
IS A DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WARM FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A DEEP LOW WILL CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT A
SURGE OF STRONG CHINOOK WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE, INCLUDING
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OUT OF ISABEL PASS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE MINTO FLATS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL ALSO PULL
SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE TANANA VALLEY. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY SOAR INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MANY AREAS IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS. MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST, AND MAY
EVEN CLIP THE TANANA VALLEY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS CHANCE IS LOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE RATHER MINIMAL WITH
A GENERAL 1-2" FAVORING THE DALTON HIGHWAY WESTWARD. THIS BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW BEGINS TO FALL APART THURSDAY MORNING AND FALLS APART
COMPLETELY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A BLOCKING
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH BERING FINALLY WEAKENS TODAY,
BRINGING AN END TO THE REMAINING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WHICH HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A FRONT WILL BRING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON TODAY
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A POSSIBLE 1-2" OF SNOW BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF THE STORM WEARY COAST. THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS A STRONG FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY, BRINGING A BURST OF
VERY STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
QUIET WEATHER UP ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
WITH PRETTY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ONTO THE
ARCTIC COAST, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ATIGUN PASS WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
WEATHER MOVES BACK IN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO NOTE BEING A STRONG
STORM FORCE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST
ARCTIC AND WESTERN BROOKS ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY AND
WARM, BUT IT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
WEST COAST. THE BIG "IF" IS REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW
AROUND GIVEN THE MID APRIL SUN. IF IT IS ALL CRUSTED OVER, IT MAY
NOT BE THAT MUCH. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW
ALONE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY NOW THAT A MAJOR FLIP IN THE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT A DRY PATTERN, BUT A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, BUT NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY MOVING TOWARDS A POWERFUL
BLOCKING HIGH DOMINATING THE ENTIRE PATTERN OVER THE STATE. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS SIGNIFICANT WARM ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE NORTHLAND, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS IN THE
INTERIOR WILL BE APPROACHING THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER
NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.
AHSENMACHER APR 21
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