731
FXAK69 PAFG 081335
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WITH A STRONG, ONGOING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BERING SEA WHILE INTENSIFYING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING BY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROOKS RANGE AND COASTAL AREAS NORTH SLOPE WILL
SEE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH GUST SOUTHERLY WINDS EVEN IN DRIER
INLAND LOCATIONS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH CUMULATIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR HIGHER
POSSIBLE THROUGH WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.
- WIND IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE STRONG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO
35 MPH IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHUKOTKA PENINSULA.
- THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS HAVE
MOVED INTO INTO THE YUKON DELTA/LOWER YUKON VALLEY, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND.
- RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN KOTZEBUE SOUND
AND SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
- THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60+
MPH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE YUKON
DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT.
- THOUGH MOST GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 60-65 MPH, SOME
GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL WINDY
SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION, AND YUKON
DELTA.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE AROUND 0.25 TO 1 INCH AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BERING
STRAIT AND NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, WITH UP TO 1.50 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.
- COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTION. BUT, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED AND THEY HAVE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLOODING AS WELL.
- THESE CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND
SIGNIFICANT EROSION. THESE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL SECTION.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND THE NORTH SLOPE, 5 TO 10 INCHES IN ATIGUN
PASS AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE NORTH/EAST OF SHUNGNAK.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PARTS OF ATIGUN
PASSES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING
SNOW AS WELL AS VERY LOW VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE 970 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTKA PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA
BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN ALASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING. MOVING
INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE EAST AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE ARCTIC COAST, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS THERE
BECOMING WESTERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN WESTERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INLAND,
BUT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE BROOKS AND
ALASKA RANGES AND IN ELEVATED AREAS OF THE INTERIOR; WINDS OF
AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH AT 850 MB WILL GUST DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE EXTENT
OF MIXING NEEDED IS REDUCED. BY MID-THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW
WEAKENS INTO THE MID 990S MB WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST,
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT EXITS THE AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
BEING DRAWN FROM THE OPEN PACIFIC NORTHWARD WILL YIELD CONTINUING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES ARE MAXIMIZED. WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A
QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
HIGHER TOTALS IN ELEVATED AREAS. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE, WITH OBSERVATION DATA INDICATING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT SITES SUCH AS ATIGUN PASS.
SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE ONGOING AND
FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.
HYDROLOGY...
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA:
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
RAPIDLY TO NEAR BANKFULL ALONG INLAND AREAS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RIVERS LEVELS WILL BE COMBINED WITH HIGH COASTAL WATER LEVELS AS
THEY DRAIN INTO NORTON SOUND.
INTERIOR:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPLANDS NEAR FAIRBANKS AND ALONG THE DALTON
HIGHWAY. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MELT 3 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
THAT COVERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WILL INCREASE
RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS.
WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
RAPIDLY AND COVER GRAVEL BARS AND IN LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACH
BANKFULL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGHER PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEST COAST STORM FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS
OF THIS STORM EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF
RESPITE. IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA, ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY AND STALLS IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW REACHES THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW GETS CAUGHT BY THE WESTERN
BERING LOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THIS LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON HALONG CURRENTLY OFF
THE COAST OF JAPAN. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE BERING
SEA AND CONTINUE NORTH LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING IN THE STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH, BUT IS STILL NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO SPEAK TO ANY SPECIFIC IMPACTS YET. IT IS HOWEVER QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE STORM AFFECTING
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL COASTAL
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
STORM. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WARNING/ADVISORY DOESN'T MEAN
"IMPACTFUL/NON-IMPACTFUL". THIS WILL IMPACT EVERY COMMUNITY IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
EROSION. WHILE SOME PLACES WON'T SEE "WARNING LEVEL FLOODING"
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BEACHES, AIR STRIPS, DUMPS,
AND MORE. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE
ONGOING AND FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERFUL
STORM.
WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR MANY COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MOST, IF NOT ALL COMMUNITIES WILL SEE SOME
SORT OF IMPACT WITH THIS CURRENT STORM.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL
STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK THAT MAY IMPACT MANY OF
THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT ARE OR WILL BE IMPACTED BY TODAY'S AND
TONIGHT'S STORM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM. THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ801-816>818.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ828>830-851-852.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ815.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ820.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821-825-826.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ821.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ822.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ824.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-803-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-806-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ808.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-857>860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
DS
EXTENDED:STOKES
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