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FXAK69 PAFG 072343
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 PM AKST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS CONTINUED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ARCTIC
COAST, SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW CHANCES, WHICH WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-3" OVERALL. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO WESTERN ALASKA WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG, BUT RAPIDLY
DECAYING, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE BERING SEA WILL BRING
ABOUT STRONGER WINDS AND SNOW MOVING IN TOMORROW AND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BUT
THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS GOING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS TREND
PREDOMINANTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW CHANCES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1-3" THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWING BY A
DRYING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW, WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
THEREAFTER THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SNOW CHANCES SHIFT EAST TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER FOR
MONDAY AS PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- CLEARER SKIES SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COLDER, AS HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS
REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS AND N/NW WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1-3".
- E/SE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED.
- SNOW CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
YUKON DELTA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY AS THE NORTHWEST COAST
REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS INLAND TO 20S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES TREND
COLDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1-3". HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- ISOLATED SNOW CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY TO ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST AND ALCAN BORDER AS PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS TO BELOW ZERO IN THE BROOKS RANGE. TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER
STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WEAKENING LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS ONLY BEEN
PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON, AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR WITH RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPS IN THE DGZ WITH LOWER LEVEL SATURATION HAS ALSO EVEN ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE TO BE MIXED IN WITH LIGHT FLURRIES IN, AND
AROUND THE FAIRBANKS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY,
WHICH ENTAILS ALL OF DETAILS. AS ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENTERS INTO THE EASTERN GULF, THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OF THIS WILL MOVE UP OVER THE REGION BY LATER ON THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF MORE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A REINFORCEMENT OF MORE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SOUTH. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF GOING INTO TOMORROW AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE BERING SEA TOMORROW, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE WILL BE SOME
WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF THE ISLAND
ACTUALLY REACHING CRITERIA, AND ALSO THE DURATION OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT, GIVEN HOW RAPID THE DECAY OF THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE. THE TIMING OF THIS IS ALSO GOING TO COINCIDE
WITH HIGH TIDE TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER WATERS LEVELS BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET HIGHER FOR SOME OF THE AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YK DELTA,
SUCH AS SCAMMON BAY, HOOPER BAY, AND CHEVAK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW
LITTLE TO MINOR ISSUES WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS, SO
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN-UP OR COASTAL FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA, IT IS GOING TO HELP TO DRAW IN MUCH COLDER AIR
DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE MAINLAND, WITH NOTABLY COLDER HIGHS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE CLEARING OUT OF A LOT OF CLOUDS WITH A MORE DRIER
PATTERN BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
ARCTIC PLAINS DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CARRY ON
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 2 AND 3... THIS SYSTEM IN THE BERING
SEA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL
BE WITH THE HIGH TIDE EACH AFTERNOON FROM NUNAM IQUA SOUTH INCLUDING
SCAMMON BAY, HOOPER BAY, AND CHEVAK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDE CYCLES DUE
TO THE NEARLY FULL MOON AND THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL BRING IN
ELEVATED WATER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS, SO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN-UP OR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE NOT EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS REGION TO COVER THESE IMPACTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THIS UPCOMING MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE OVERALL COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND THE NEGATIVE PWATS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MAINLAND REFLECT THIS. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO AGREE WITH THE
SOLUTION BRINGING BACK MORE TROUGHING TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE AGAIN IN THE PWATS, WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE COLDER AND DRIER SIDE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ840-843-844.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
STEWEY
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