363
FXAK69 PAFG 211603
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
703 AM AKST MON JAN 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE TUE WITH A MORE RAPID WARM UP ON WED. A SERIES OF
WEATHER FRONTS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL
BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO WED,
WHILE EAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH LATE TUE.
ALOFT...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA TODAY, THEN MOVE OVER THE BERING ON TUE CAUSING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA TO DEEPEN TUE AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE, THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL
CAUSE WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUE AND THEN INCREASE
TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TO WARM RAPIDLY FROM TUE THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE
CHINOOK WINDS TO DEVELOP TUE AND INCREASE THROUGH WED.
SURFACE...
A 1016 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT AS A 1011 MB LOW BY 3PM MON, TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF
GAMBELL AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE, THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWEST. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
INUVIK WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT. SNOW NEAR THE
FIRST LOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES LATE TODAY.
A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING BY TUE PM. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE YK DELTA TO KING SALMON BY 3AM TUE, TO
PROVIDENIYA TO POINT LAY TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM TUE THEN WEAKEN.
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTH TUE.
A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE YK DELTA BY 3PM TUE, TO
NORTON SOUND TO BIG DELTA BY WED. THIS WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY TO ZONES 214 AND 213 TUE PM INTO
WED.
DISCUSSION
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ALOFT AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS MOST
FIELDS THROUGH 3PM WED. GFS AND ECMF ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM
IN BRING PRECIP NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE,
THEN KEEP PRECIP FURTHER WEST TUE NIGHT AND WED. PREFER THE GFS
FOR PRECIP TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z, MODELS VERIFY A FEW MB TOO WEAK ON THE LOW
NEAR BARROW, AND A FEW MB TOO WEAK ON THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BEING 3-5 KT
STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE ALONG THE COAST FROM BARTER ISLAND
TO THE BERING STRAIT TODAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ219-AKZ221.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
JB JAN 19
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