055  
FXAK69 PAFG 102314  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
314 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
WETTING RAINS QUICKLY LOOK LIKE A THING OF THE PAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR THIS  
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE  
DRIFTING NORTHWEST OFF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE OVER THE PARKS  
HIGHWAY SOUTH OF NENANA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS AND RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EVEN PARTS OF  
THE NORTH SLOPE MAY REACH THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES  
 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...  
- WETTING RAINS QUICKLY BECOME A THING OF THE PAST AS SKIES CLEAR  
AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, TO  
NORMAL ON FRIDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
- VERY COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND  
70F AND LOWS AROUND 50F  
 
- WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
HIGHS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 80 F BY SUNDAY.  
 
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND  
ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY,  
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.  
 
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...  
- A CLOSED LOW OVER THE KOBUK VALLEY IS BRINGING CUMULUS TO THE  
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEWARD  
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  
 
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM  
THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY AND NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY.  
 
- NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS  
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA.  
 
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...  
 
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE 60S ON THE COAST, UP TO NEAR 80 NEAR UMIAT WITH 70S  
ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
- WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES  
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS OF 1:30PM  
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KOBUK  
VALLEY AND WILL DRIFT WSW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.  
MODELS SHOW LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT VERY  
LITTLE CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH IT, AND COMBINED WITH VERY  
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH  
THE GROUND EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. BEHIND THIS LOW, RIDGING  
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE NORTHWEST, THOUGH A SLOW  
MOVING LOW ALOFT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP  
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY OR EVEN  
SATURDAY. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS AND ONE TO WATCH  
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, THE RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SEE  
EXTENDED FOR DETAILS BEYOND. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS IN PLACE  
WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER ALASKA BY SATURDAY, THUS WE THINK THE  
RIDGE WILL PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE, BRINGING MORE WARM  
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
SUNNY, CLEAR, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS  
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WETTING RAINS WILL  
BE PUT ON HOLD FOR A WHILE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE  
ONLY AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WETTING RAIN AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH  
TO NENANA ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  
ARE HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GIVEN HOW FAST SKIES  
HAVE CLEARED TODAY, THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE LIKELY POSSIBILITY FOR  
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH US FAVORING A LATER BREAKDOWN OF THE  
RIDGE THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE (SEE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT). BY SUNDAY, EXPECT SOME 80S FOR HIGHS IN  
THE INTERIOR AND EVEN THE KOBUK VALLEY AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY  
AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR  
BOROUGH HAVE SEEN RISES AFTER THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE  
ARE NO CONCERNS.  
 
 
   
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7  
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
MONDAY UNDER AN INTERIOR RIDGE PATTERN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE  
OVERALL PATTERN TUESDAY AS TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS PRESENT THEMSELVES.  
THE FIRST OF THESE IS EXEMPLIFIED BY THE GFS WHERE THE LOW OVER  
THE ALEUTIANS CLOSES OFF, STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF  
OF ALASKA WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT EAST INTO CANADA  
TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER, WETTER,  
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW  
SUBSEQUENT LOWS EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERIOR. THE SECOND SOLUTION  
IS BEST EXEMPLIFIED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING  
IN STRONGER AND FORCING THE ALEUTIAN LOW TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS  
SOLUTION OFFERS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION  
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE  
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN BERING  
BRINGING COOL, WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF  
THE WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT KEEPS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR  
DRY.  
 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHICH SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL, BUT WE ARE  
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE SECOND SOLUTION WITH THE STRONGER RIDGE  
PATTERN DUE TO A GENERAL MODEL TENDENCY TO PUSH RIDGE BREAKDOWN TOO  
QUICKLY.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE  
 
 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AK...NONE.  
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-853-854.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.  
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.  
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.  
 
 
 
 
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