401
FXAK69 PAFG 281307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
507 AM AKDT TUE APR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BERING SEA LOW CIRCULATING NEAR ST. PAUL ISLAND WILL BRING
MULTIPLE FRONTS AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHED NORTH
BY ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS SEQUENCE
OF LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION REGION,
WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 50-65 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW.
- A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (1-5%) OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE, WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WEDNESDAY WILL TREND COOLER AND DRIER, AHEAD OF STRONG WINDS
REDEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE
COAST TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, AHEAD
OF WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT.
- A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3" FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST/PLAINS AND 3-6" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS.
- WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH, LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY EARLY THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY WARM
LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST AND PLAINS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW
30S FARTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK. A
SLOW-MOVING BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE NEAR ST.
PAUL ISLAND, TRAVELING EASTWARD TODAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO ITS SLOW-MOVING NATURE, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO TOMORROW, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE MORE RAIN. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE BROOKS RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE AS HIGH AS 3-6" WITH LOWER AMOUNTS LIKELY NORTHWARD. A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE, WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA, ESPECIALLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES GUSTING 50-65 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PUSHING THIS CURRENT LOW NORTHWARD. DUE TO
THESE LOWS BEING CLOSE TOGETHER, PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR ESPECIALLY WILL LIKELY BE MORE STEADY IN
NATURE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE TEMPERATURE
DEPENDENT, LIKE THE FIRST LOW. MORE ABOUT THIS LOW WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST SECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A BERING SEA LOW, OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA AND
RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, MEANING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD THE END OF
THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AND A NEW LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY MONDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-847-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-815-858-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-860-861.
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