700
FXAK69 PAFG 190910
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 AM AKDT FRI JUL 19 2019
DISCUSSION
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OUR MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY.
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
THE NORTH SLOPE. SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE INTERIOR).
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER THEY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN;
HOWEVER, THEY GENERALLY SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INTERIOR: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT
YUKON, TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE YUKON
FLATS. THE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MORE STABLE
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK
LINE. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND; HOWEVER, IT
WILL LIKELY BE VERY SPOTTY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A EAGLE TO NORTHWAY LINE. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR;
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN; HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT AT THE MOMENT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND EAST OF UTQIAGVIK AS IS MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT; HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE COAST, AS THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ARCTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE FIRST LOW ALONG WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
WEST COAST: A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING BUT
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING (HEAVIER)
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
A ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S IN THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE
YUKON FLATS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF A EAGLE TO NORTHWAY LINE ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE INTERIOR TONIGHT
AND THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH AN INCREASE IN RH VALUES. THE COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MORE STABLE, LIMITING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
HYDROLOGY
0.25 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE
AND THE BROOKS RANGE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES IN RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE
BROOKS RANGE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
CCC JUL 19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page