549
FXAK69 PAFG 151216
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
416 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SPRING-TIME IS HERE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR AS
THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT, RIVER BREAKUP PROGRESSES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM, AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADILY IN THE 50S AND 60S
TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH SLOPE, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, IT WILL BE JOINED BY ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THESE TWO LOWS WILL BRING LOTS OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY STEADY PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND CLEARER SKIES
POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE CURRENTLY QUITE DRY. ANY
SHOWERS THAT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ISOLATED DUE TO THE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE YK DELTA AND
SEWARD PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY
ON SATURDAY FOR THE YK DELTA.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REACHING
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD OVER
THE YUKON FLATS TODAY, BRINGING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE INTERIOR
BESIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THIS ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.
OUR MAIN WEATHER-MAKER WILL BE A LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA
THAT WILL APPROACH THE YK DELTA, BUT NOT QUITE MAKE LANDFALL. THIS
LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR THE YK DELTA AND
SEWARD PENINSULA SATURDAY. A SECONDARY, MORE MOIST LOW WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, ALONG WITH THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIGHT, NONZERO
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THESE SHOWERS. ACCOMPANYING
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE YK
DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR. AREAS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION, MEANING ANY SHOWERS
THAT FALL WILL HAVE TO RISE THE DEW POINT, LIKELY RESULTING IN
THE SHOWERS BEING ISOLATED.
DUE TO THE FIRST LOW REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND AN EASTERN ARCTIC HIGH, A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM
OVER THE STATE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. UPWARDS OF 6 MB
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND, BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AS IT
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS CANADA. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A NEW LOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA, HELPING TO
REESTABLISH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TIGHTENS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH PASSES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ISABEL
PASS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED AREAS SEEING LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN DRY AROUND 20% THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, YUKON FLATS, AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY
WITH THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING VALUES AROUND 30%. DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DUE TO
LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY, CHANCES REMAIN UNLIKELY.
OVERALL, EXPECT LOW FIRE RISKS THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE FIRE
RISKS POSSIBLE NEAR DELTA JUNCTION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
KOYUKUK RIVER:
THE ICE JAM ON THE KOYUKUK RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF HUGHES FLUSHED OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING WATER LEVELS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH NO FLOODING OBSERVED IN THE COMMUNITY. THE RIVER WAS NEARLY
ICE FREE FOR AT LEAST 20 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF HUGHES AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM OF THE VILLAGE.
YUKON RIVER:
AN ICE JAM AT THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT, ABOUT 20 MILES
DOWNSTREAM OF RUBY AT THE MOUTH OF THE YUKI RIVER, HAS CAUSED
WATER LEVELS TO RISE UPSTREAM IN RUBY AND THE BIG EDDY AREA. IN
THE BIG EDDY AREA, SEVERAL STRUCTURES WERE OBSERVED SURROUNDED BY
FLOODWATERS. IN RUBY, WATER LEVELS ROSE BY SEVERAL ADDITIONAL FEET
AND WERE JUST BELOW RIVER ROAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THE JAM, WATER
LEVELS IN GALENA LEVELED OFF AND SLOWLY FELL THROUGH THE DAY.
LITTLE MOVEMENT WAS OBSERVED IN THE INTACT ICE SHEETS DOWNSTREAM
TO BISHOP ROCK. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GALENA THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING FROM AN ICE JAM
DOWNSTREAM, INCLUDING NEAR BISHOP ROCK.
HIGH WATER LEVELS ON THE PORCUPINE RIVER CONTINUES MOVING
DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE YUKON RIVER. HEAVY RUNS OF BANK-TO-BANK ICE
WERE SEEN MOVING PAST RAMPART ALL DAY WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE FORT YUKON AREA AND A FLOOD
WARNING FOR HIGH WATER LEVELS NEAR STEVENS VILLAGE REMAIN IN
EFFECT.
CHENA RIVER:
THE CHENA RIVER HAS BEGUN TO RESPOND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASED SNOWMELT LEADING TO RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER AND GAGES
GETTING CLOSER TO OR REACHING ACTION STAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE PATTERN REMAINS
DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS PREVENTED FROM MOVING
EAST TOWARDS THE GULF BY A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE GULF AND INTO
THE YUKON. ALL THE WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SPLIT OFF FROM
A LOW FAR TO THE EAST IN CANADA SLOWLY MOVES WEST ACROSS THE STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC COLLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES COMPLICATES HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY SPEAKING MOST SOLUTIONS FAVOR HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE MAJORITY OF
THE VARIANCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH VARIANCE TO KEEP THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN. SHOULD THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADFAST
IN ITS POSITION, THEN THE WEATHER OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK WITH GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
AND OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS. SHOULD THIS HIGH BE PUSHED ASIDE OR
WEAKEN, THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE FELT
FURTHER INLAND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PEAK IN AREAL
COVERAGE DIURNALLY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH COLDEST
CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ829.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
LEWIS
MACKAY - EXTENDED
SANTIAGO - FIRE WEATHER
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