726
FXAK69 PAFG 212307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
HROUGH THE CHUKCHI SEA DOWN TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. PERIODS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
ARE OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY FROM POINT HOPE TO POINT LAY AND NEAR
DEADHORSE. WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FROM POINT HOPE THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT TOWARDS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BRINGING BLOWING SNOW
AND LOW VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ICE-PACK.
- BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY POINT
HOPE TO POINT LAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS COULD STAY STRONG INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
PRODUCING LOCALIZED GROUND BLIZZARDS. UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE POINT LAY AREA.
- WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE ON SATURDAY, BUT LIKELY
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION.
FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
INTENSIFIES. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA.
A CLOUDY PATTERN WITH SOME MINOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER ALASKA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, LIGHT MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE HAS
LEAD TO WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HINT AT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE NORTHWARD LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRONGER LOW POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY WITH THESE FEATURES SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
REGARDING SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. LIGHT LOW TO MID- LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN THE RIDGE MAY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF RAIN SHADOWING SO
SNOW MAY NOT BE CONFINED TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE LOWS TRACK AND HOW THEY
EVOLVE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-812-814-856-858-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-817-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
JK
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