404
FXAK69 PAFG 072344 CCA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF FNSB AND ALASKA RANGE PASSES, WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN BY FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AK RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 60-70 MPH ON SATURDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE MAIN STORY IS A BERING SEA LOW WHICH WILL BRING STRONG
WIND AND MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
ELABORATION ABOUT THE COASTAL IMPACTS IN THE COASTAL SECTION.
- SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE BULK
OF IT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST AND MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF.
- 10" TO 14" OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF
THE KOBUK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, 2" TO 4" CAN BE EXPECTED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO 1" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
- STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NW ARCTIC COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LIKELY ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SNOW
IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. TOTALS OF 10-14 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45
MPH POSSIBLE IN ATIGUN AND ANAKTUVUK PASSES AND 30 MPH ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST.
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS DEPART OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY, USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WHICH LASTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (AND FOR
THE EASTERN INTERIOR, POTENTIALLY THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL SEE A VERY DIFFERENT STORY. A STRONG FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA, BRINGING WITH IT ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS, HIGH WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE, WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY SUBSIDED IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WEAKER
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, BUT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST, WHICH IS FORCING BOTH FRONTS EAST AS
WELL AS BRINGING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TO THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND BEFORE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY.
A GROUP OF WEAKER SURFACE LOWS PHASE TOGETHER IN THE WESTERN BERING
(ROUGHLY 500-700 MILES WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA) AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT
950 MB ON THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA FORCES THE
LOW TO STALL IN THE WESTERN BERING WHILE IT WEAKENS THROUGH
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE BERING FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE/WHILE THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND CALM SLIGHTLY AFTER THE WARM
FRONT PASSES, BUT REMAIN STRONGER THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WATER RISES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS STARTING FRIDAY, SEE
THE COASTAL HAZARDS SECTION FOR MORE DETAIL.
THIS LOW PRESSURE ALSO PULLS A SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS
(ABOUT 35 DEGREES NORTH) UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, BUT A
PORTION OF THAT MOISTURE IS PULLED UP THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE WARMTH ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS, SO MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN ON THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR, WITH TOTALS IN THE 0.25"-0.5" RANGE BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. TOTALS UP TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NULATO HILLS AND SEWARD PENINSULA DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO
GET UPSLOPE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FT. SNOW TOTALS IN THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 3"-6"
RANGE, WITH TOTALS IN THE 6"-12" OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS BETWEEN
THURSDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST, FLOW
BECOMES EASTERLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST, A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STEEPEN ALONG THE
PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN ISABEL PASS. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS IN BOTH
PASSES PICK UP FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER
IN ISABEL PASS DUE TO THE STEEPER GRADIENT (THERE IS STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO WINDY PASS), WITH GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A ONCE POWERFUL LOW BY THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT OCCLUDES AND MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW WEAKENS, ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TREND BACK DOWNWARDS SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AS THE DECAYING FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR, WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK FOR THE FNSB AND AREAS EAST.
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, BUT THE BY NOW MOISTURE DEPRIVED FRONT
WILL LACK THE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THIS. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER BRING CHINOOKING
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING FROM THE AK RANGE INTO THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY CONTRIBUTE
TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE AK RANGE, BUT
ALSO TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS ADIABATIC
AND DIABATIC HEATING RELATED THERMODYNAMICS TAKE HOLD.
A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF WHAT'S LEFT OF THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL MOVE NORTH, BUT WILL LARGELY
DISSIPATE MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
TUESDAY, THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL HAVE DECAYED INTO A REMNANT
TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING
ALASKA. THIS LOW, IN CONTRAST TO RECENT SYSTEM, WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER TO TAKE THIS
NEXT SYSTEM INTO EITHER BRISTOL BAY OR THE GULF BUT IN EITHER
CASE THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECT FAIRLY MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. WHILE WATER LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED,
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NATURE OF THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION WILL
KEEP THE WORST IMPACTS AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS, WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE COAST. SOME COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA,
ALONG WITH HOOPER BAY. WHILE WATER LEVELS WILL PEAK DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATE THAT LEVELS WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ801.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY
FOR AKZ801-815-820-824.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY
FOR AKZ818.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
AKZ820-821.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR AKZ821-822.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ822-823.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ827.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ847-849.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ801-802-805-810-853-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ803-808-809-852-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ806-807-850-854.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ806-850-
854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ811-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ851.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ858.
KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS.......SPANN
SHORT TERM.....SCHLEZINGER
LONG TERM......SPANN
COASTAL........SPANN
HYDROLOGY......SPANN
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