007
FXAK69 PAFG 122338
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
338 PM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WHERE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN AK RANGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST
IN DELTA JUNCTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH STRONG WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE, REMAINING
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS A GULF OF ALASKA LOW PROVIDES
MOISTURE TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEYS WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE.
CHANCES FOR ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO 3/4" IN DIAMETER.
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR DELTA JUNCTION AND ISABEL PASS AS WINDS
INCREASE AND MINIMUM RHS DECREASE TO CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND, GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND RHS
NEAR AS LOW AS 20%. SUNDAY CONSISTS OF STRONGER WINDS, 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND RHS NEAR 30%.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM, OTHERWISE
AREAS OF STRATUS ON THE WEST COAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST
WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SEASONABLY WARM ALONG THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FROM WALES NORTHWARD, WITH
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. 40S TO NEAR 50 IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AROUND 0.25 TO 0.75" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SEASONABLY MILD ON THE ARCTIC COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER IN THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND EVEN 70S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SHUBLIK MOUNTAINS.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO AIM AT THE BROOKS RANGE FROM
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
UNCERTAIN BUT A WIDESPREAD 1/2" TO 3/4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE LOCALIZED HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO 1" OR MORE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVELS AREN'T MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR, CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH BRANCHES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING INTO THE INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS BEGUN DEVELOPING
AT 10AM AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT 10PM
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. A 19Z SPECIAL SOUNDING
SHOWED OVER 600 J/KG OF SBCAPE, ~350 J/KG OF DCAPE WITH MINIMAL
SHEAR. THESE PARAMETERS CAN SUPPORT FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN COVERAGE AREA WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE.
OTHERWISE, MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS WARM
AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR DELTA JUNCTION AS CHINOOK FLOW INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
40 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. RHS WILL BE
DRIEST ON SATURDAY, AS LOW AS 20%, THEN 30% ON SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY A FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
1/4" TO 3/4" POSSIBLE, HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN ALASKA WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1" OR MORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SAME FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR BUT WITH SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW, THESE WILL BE SPORADIC
SHOWERS RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY ISSUED FOR
DELTA JUNCTION AND ISABEL PASS THIS WEEKEND. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN 40 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RHS
WILL BE DRIEST ON SATURDAY, AS LOW AS 20%, THEN 30% ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
MIN RHS AROUND 20% TO 30% THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN
THE AK RANGE PASSES BUT FAIRLY WEAK ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE INTERIOR SITTING AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS,
HIGHEST AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE BY MONDAY THE PATTERN
BECOMES A BIT WETTER AND COOLER AS A GULF OF ALASKA LOW BRINGS A
HIGH CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN
INTERIOR. CHANCES ARE LOWER IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT MORE SPORADIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN LOW AFTER TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM ON SATURDAY,
THEN A NARROW SWATCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE ON
SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE RIVERS HAVE BROKEN UP WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. MOVING FORWARD AS SUMMER ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES RISE,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT RISES. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WHICH INCLUDE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
ARE PREDICTED AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK.
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAPID MELT
AND RIVER RISES. WE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD 1/2" TO
3/4" OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY EXACERBATE RIVER RISES
SINCE THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN RUNOFF.
MOST OF THE ICE ON THE LARGER RIVERS HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT WHICH
LEAVES MORE ROOM TO ACCOMMODATE THE INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RAIN.
THIS CONTRASTS WITH LAST YEAR'S LATE BREAKUP WHEN THE SNOWMELT
ALL ENTERED THE RIVER SYSTEMS WHILE ICE WAS MAINLY STILL IN PLACE.
RISING OF WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. FARTHER
SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, YET MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEDNESDAY STARTS TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WIDESPREAD RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ937.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
BIANCO
CRUZ - EXTENDED DISCUSSION
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page