902
FXAK69 PAFG 082335
AFDAFG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 PM AKDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOST SNOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY THIS
EVENING, WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED WEST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY. ELEVATED TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIMES THIS WEEK WHICH WILL BE
DRIVEN BY SOLAR HEATING. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ARCTIC
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW. GENERALLY WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA, WHICH WILL
USHER IN SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
SOME RESIDUAL SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE ALASKA RANGE, MOSTLY WEST
OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY, WILL BE ENDING BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN.
- SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE, MOSTLY IN REMOTE PARTS WEST OF THE
PARKS HIGHWAY, SHOULD END BY TONIGHT.
- THERE WILL BE CHANCES EACH DAY FOR SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL MOSTLY FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMONG THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S EXPECTED FROM
TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE NORTON SOUND AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE YK DELTA AND NORTON SOUND
AREAS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIMES OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
AND LOWER YUKON VALLEYS.
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR RISE INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE
ARCTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST. WEST WINDS SOUTH
OF AN ARCTIC LOW WILL PICK UP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
- WEST WINDS SUSTAINED INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
- SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND COULD EXACERBATE ANY BLOWING SNOW WHERE IT
COMBINES WITH THE STRONGER WEST WINDS. VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE
MILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THE CURRENT TIME.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 530 DM UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FOCUSED SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERTICALLY-STACKED 533 DM UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS COLOCATED WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW.
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER HERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR EACH DAY DURING THE DAYTIME. A 519 DAM LOW ON MONDAY
WILL BRING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN, TO THE
WEST COAST, WITH LESSER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THE LOW
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH SOME GENERAL EAST WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA ARE LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH WARMER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WHEN WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S
WILL BE LIKELY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS IN THE KUSKOKWIM AND
LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAYTIME. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. SUNDAY
WILL SEE WEST WINDS PICK UP OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, WITH HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT FT. YUKON BROKE UP TUESDAY WITH MINOR
FLOODING FROM AN ICE JAM THAT RELEASED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BREAKUP FRONT REMAINED STALLED AT 6 MILE ISLAND
BELOW FT. YUKON AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WATER
LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP AT FT. YUKON. THE WATER THAT HAS
BEEN CARRYING THE BREAKUP FRONT HAS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM AND IS
HELPING TO LIFT AND SHIFT THE ICE BETWEEN FT. YUKON AND BEAVER;
HOWEVER WITHOUT A PULSE OF WATER FROM UPSTREAM BREAKUP MAY BE
SLOWED FOR A FEW DAYS. THE TIMING OF THE BREAKUP FRONT REACHING
STEVENS VILLAGE AND THE DALTON HIGHWAY BRIDGE COULD BE ANYWHERE
FROM 1-5 DAYS. THE RIVER WATCH TEAM PLANS ONE MORE FLIGHT TO
THIS REACH ON THURSDAY TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION AND WILL
PROVIDE UPDATES AS INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT A
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A BROAD AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE BROADEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH
UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID POSSIBLE IN THE YK
DELTA AND LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY, WITH LESSER TOTALS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION STILL YIELDS
SOME HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA BUT IS MORE CONSTRAINED ON
PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR, AND THE SAME HOLDS FOR ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHILE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WINDS, MOSTLY IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE YK DELTA COULD STILL SEE SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TO
OVER 20 MPH ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
GENERAL EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALSO LIKELY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
DS
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