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FZAK30 PAFC 271658
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
858 AM AKDT THURSDAY 27 AUGUST 2026
…AUGUST 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
SEASONAL MELT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS HAS ACCELERATED
OVER THE LAST MONTH. THE MACKENZIE RIVER DISCHARGE HAS NOT YET
COMBINED WITH THE WARMER WATER OF THE ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT.
MARGINAL ICE LINGERED OVER BOTH HANNA AND HERALD SHOAL AS WELL AS
THE RUSSIAN COAST IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. AN AREA OF PACK ICE LINGERED
BETWEEN PRUDHOE BAY AND BARTER ISLAND, BUT IS THINNING OUT QUICKLY
INTO MARGINAL ICE.
THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT HAVE
NOT YET ROUNDED POINT BARROW, HOWEVER SSTS ALONG THE COAST FROM PT.
BARROW THROUGH PRUDHOE BAY ARE 3-5C. SSTS IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER
DELTA ARE 12-15C, WITH A PLUME OF 6-7C EXTENDING OUTWARD TOWARD
HERSCHEL ISLAND. SEA ICE BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF WARMER WATER ARE
KEEPING THE SURFACE COOL. ICE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY-MID
SEPTEMBER IN THIS AREA.
LOOKING FORWARD TO SEA ICE MINIMUM, 2025 IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE A
CLOSE ANALOG YEAR WHERE THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA MOSTLY MELTS OUT
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF OLD ICE ROTATING AROUND THE BEAUFORT GYRE FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO EVENT IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR A STRONG EVENT. THE OUTLOOK
WILL LIKELY FEATURE DIFFERENT ANALOG YEARS FOR BREAKUP AND FREEZE-
UP. EL-NINO HAS A STRONGER CORRELATION GOING INTO WINTER WHICH MAY
DELAY FREEZE-UP IN THE BERING SEA AND COOK INLET. IT IS LESS CLEAR
WHAT FREEZE-UP FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA AS THE STRONGEST EL-NINO YEARS
HAVE A MIX OF BELOW TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR ICY CAPE TO BARROW WEST TO 170W, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS ONLY HAPPENED 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS, IF IT HAPPENS
THIS YEAR IT WOULD BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE DID NOT HAPPEN 2 OF THE LAST 5 YEARS, IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS DID NOT HAPPEN 3 OF
THE LAST 5 YEARS, IF IT DOES HAPPEN, IT WOULD BE AROUND MID-
SEPTEMBER.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD HAPPEN
BRIEFLY IN MID-CSEPTEMBER. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
THE FIRST NEW ICE WITHIN THE PACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS AND BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS, THE FIRST
NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS THE FIRST NEW ICE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. SEVEN-TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF OCTOBER.
FOR DEMARCATION POINT TO UTQIAGVIK TO 75N, ICE GROWTH EXPANDING
SOUTH OF THE PACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
MERGING WITH COASTAL SEA ICE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE FIRST HALF
OF NOVEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW, SEVEN-TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK WEST TO 170W THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST NEW ICE
IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR UTQIAGVIK TO 75N AND 170W, THE FIRST ICE WITHIN THE PACK IS
EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER.
THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE BEHIND
BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NOVEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY
IN EARLY DECEMBER.
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE END OF NOVEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR NORTON SOUND THE FIRST NEW ICE (NORTHEAST COASTLINE) IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
IN MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE-NOVEMBER.
FOR THE YUKON DELTA, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN LATE-NOVEMBER.
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED IN EARLY
NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN
TENTHS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL DECEMBER.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, FREEZE-UP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY WARMER AIR FROM
EL-NINO CONDITIONS AND NOT HAPPEN UNTIL DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
IN ALL OF ALASKA WATERS, COOK INLET IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY STRENGTHENING EL NINO CONDITIONS WITH A LATER FREEZE-UP
AND MORE MELTING EVENTS IN WINTER.
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION THE FIRST
ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE
FORELANDS THE FIRST ICE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF NOVEMBER BUT IS
MORE LIKELY IN EARLY DECEMBER.
LAWSON
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