478  
FZAK30 PAFC 281839  
ICOAFC  
 
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA  
1036 AM AKDT FRIDAY 28 JUNE 2019  
   
..JUNE 2019 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK
 
 
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, WHILE SEA ICE MELTED OR DRIFTED WESTWARD  
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS IN MAY, THERE WAS  
LITTLE MELTING OVERALL DURING JUNE. THE MAIN AREA OF MELTING WAS  
NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN ICE PACK IN THE BEAUFORT SEA.  
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY THINNER SEA ICE MELTING AND  
LEAVING BEHIND THE THICKER FIRST YEAR ICE AND MULTI-YEAR ICE.  
 
AS WE LOOK FORWARD THROUGH BREAK-UP THROUGH SEPTEMBER, WITHIN THE  
BEAUFORT SEA, THE MAIN AREA OF MULTI-YEAR ICE BEGINS 130 TO 150 NM  
NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA AND IS QUITE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF  
THERE. THERE IS ALSO SOME MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI  
SEA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LOCATION OF THE  
MULTI-YEAR ICE IN TO THE SUMMER MONTHS AS THE FIRST YEAR ICE MELTS.  
THE MULTI-YEAR ICE WILL MELT MUCH SLOWER AND COULD AFFECT  
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS WELL INTO THE SUMMER MONTHS.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN EACH PERTINENT SECTION BELOW.  
   
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
 
 
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT  
SOME OF THE REMAINING SEA ICE THAT INCLUDES MULTI-YEAR ICE WILL  
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTO NAVIGATIONAL WATERS DEPENDING ON  
WEATHER PATTERNS DURING BREAK-UP. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE CLOSER TO  
WAINWRIGHT AND UTQIAGVIK. ADDITIONAL SEA ICE FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA  
COULD STILL DRIFT AROUND POINT BARROW AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA  
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THEREFORE, PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THE  
CURRENT SEA ICE ANALYSES AND FORECASTS WELL INTO THE SUMMER IF YOU  
PLAN TO BE IN THESE WATERS.  
 
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICY CAPE TO 170W, SEA ICE CONCENTRATION IS  
EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF  
JULY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MULTI-YEAR ICE  
MOVES, AND SEA ICE COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE WESTERN PORTION  
OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR SO.  
 
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON BY THE MIDDLE OF JULY. THIS IS HIGHLY  
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MULTI-YEAR SEA ICE MOVES AS BREAK-UP  
PROGRESSES AND WHETHER OR NOT SEA ICE MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR  
POINT BARROW, SO PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.  
 
FROM ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW WEST TO 170W, SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS  
MAY REACH 3 TENTHS BY THE FOURTH WEEK OF JULY AND SEA ICE FREE FOR  
THE SEASON BY MID-AUGUST. WITH MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THE WESTERN PART OF  
THIS AREA, THESE DATES MAY BE 2 TO 4 WEEKS LATER THAN EXPECTED.  
 
NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, THIS AREA IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TENTHS CONCENTRATION BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER DUE  
TO THE MULTI-YEAR ICE THAT PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.  
   
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA
 
 
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA BREAK-UP, SEA ICE  
QUICKLY MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA DURING LATE  
MAY AND EARLY JUNE, EVEN CREATING A SMALL OPEN PATH TO THE CHUKCHI  
SEA. BREAK-UP WILL CONTINUE AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE THROUGH SEPTEMBER  
AS THE REMAINING ICE PACK CONSISTS OF FIRST YEAR THICK ICE AND MULTI-  
YEAR ICE BEYOND THE SHOREFAST ICE. AS STATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE  
SEA ICE OUTLOOK, MULTI-YEAR SEA ICE CURRENTLY NORTH OF APPROXIMATELY  
72N MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NAVIGATIONAL WATERS THROUGH  
AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, SEA ICE  
IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TENTHS CONCENTRATION BY MID-AUGUST AND BE SEA  
ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT,  
SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TENTHS CONCENTRATION BY THE END OF  
JULY AND BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON BY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.  
 
BEYOND THE SHOREFAST ICE FROM FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO  
72N, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TENTHS CONCENTRATION DURING THE  
FIRST HALF OF AUGUST. THIS AREA MAY BE SEA ICE FREE BY THE END OF  
SEPTEMBER.  
 
BEYOND THE SHOREFAST ICE FROM PT. BARROW TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 72N,  
SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TENTHS CONCENTRATION FOR THE SEASON  
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA WILL  
BECOME SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER, HOWEVER  
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL WEATHER PATTERNS AND HOW FAST THE  
MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THIS AREA MELTS.  
 

 
SCHRECK  
 
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