724
FZAK30 PAFC 262303
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT FRIDAY 26 JUNE 2026
…JUNE 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
THE BERING SEA HAS MOSTLY MELTED OUT, THE ONLY REMAINING ICE IS
AROUND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND A SMALL PATCH OF BRASH ICE BETWEEN
THE EASTERN ENDS OF ST. LAWRENCE AND ST. MATTHEW ISLAND. THERE IS
ALSO LINGERING ICE IN THE GULF OF ANADYR. OTHERWISE SEASONAL MELT
IN THE CHUKCHI SEA MIRRORS THE LAST FIVE YEARS AS FAR AS CURRENT SEA
ICE EXTENT AND TIMING. DESPITE THE NEAR-RECORD ICE COVERAGE IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THIS PAST WINTER, MELT OUT OF THE PACK HAS BEEN
CLOSE TO THE LAST 5 YEARS. THE POINT OF THE MELT SEASON HAS BEEN
REACHED WHERE THE MAJORITY OF REMAINING SEA ICE IS MOSTLY FIRST YEAR
THICK (>=120 CM) AND MULTI-YEAR ICE. GENERALLY THE RATE OF MELT
SLOWS DOWN AT THIS POINT OF SUMMER. THE NEXT AREAS TO WATCH ARE THE
NORTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE FROM CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH UTQIAGVIK
WHERE SHOREFAST ICE WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT MONTH AS THE
ALASKA COASTAL CURRENT BRINGS WARMER WATER UP FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING FORWARD TO BREAK-UP, ENSO-NEUTRAL WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK
TO MODERATE EL NINO EVENT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A STRONG EVENT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUMMER INTO EARLY FALL, THE
RATE OF MELT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES
MATERIALIZE. THE 2023 SUMMER-FALL SEASON FEATURED A MODERATE EL
NINO, WHICH MAY BE LEANED ON FOR AN ANALOG YEAR FOR THIS MONTH’S
OUTLOOK.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
JUNE.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE, WEST TO 170W, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE OR OPEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY, BUT COULD BE AS
LATE AS THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR ICY CAPE TO BARROW WEST TO 170W, THIS AREA DID NOT BECOME LESS
THAN THREE-TENTHS OR ICE FREE IN 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS. IF IT DOES
HAPPEN, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE THIRD WEEK OF
AUGUST. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF
AUGUST BUT ARE MORE LIKELY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS ONLY HAPPENED 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS, IF IT HAPPENS
THIS YEAR IT WOULD BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE OR
OPEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE DID NOT HAPPEN 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS, IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN LATE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS DID
NOT HAPPEN 2 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS, IT WOULD BE IN THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE OR ICE FREE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF AUGUST BUT IS MORE
LIKELY INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD HAPPEN
BRIEFLY IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LAWSON
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