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FZAK30 PAFC 261924
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1123 AM AKDT SUNDAY 26 JULY 2026
…JULY 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
OVER THE LAST MONTH, THE RATE OF MELT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA AS ALL OF THE REMAINING SEA ICE IS FIRST YEAR THICK
(>120 CM) OR MULTI-YEAR ICE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LAST MONTH IS
KOTZEBUE SOUND COMPLETELY MELTING OUT AS WELL AS ANY NEAR COAST ICE
BETWEEN THERE AND WAINWRIGHT. SHOREFAST ICE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE COASTLINE RIGHT IN-LINE WITH SEASONAL NORMAL.
THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA HAS MELTED OUT, BUT THE PLUME OF WARMER
WATER HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED LIKE IT HAS IN YEARS PAST, FOR
INSTANCE IN 2019 SSTS IN THE DELTA WERE +10C(AS WELL AS COASTAL NW
ALASKA). IN JULY 2026, THE CURRENT AREA OF OPEN WATER IN THE
MACKENZIE DELTA IS +3C.
LOOKING FORWARD TO PEAK MELT SEASON, A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A STRONG EVENT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUMMER INTO FALL, THE RATE OF
MELT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES
MATERIALIZE. THE 2023 SUMMER-FALL SEASON FEATURED A MODERATE EL
NINO, WHICH MAY BE LEANED ON FOR AN ANALOG YEAR FOR THIS MONTH’S
OUTLOOK.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE, WEST TO 170W, ICE FREE OR OPEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THE LAST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY, BUT COULD BE AS LATE AS THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR ICY CAPE TO BARROW WEST TO 170W, THIS AREA DID NOT BECOME LESS
THAN THREE-TENTHS OR ICE FREE IN 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS. IF IT DOES
HAPPEN, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE THIRD WEEK OF
AUGUST. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF
AUGUST BUT ARE MORE LIKELY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS ONLY HAPPENED 1 OF THE LAST 4 YEARS, IF IT HAPPENS
THIS YEAR IT WOULD BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT ICE LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE OR OPEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE DID NOT HAPPEN 2 OF THE LAST 5 YEARS, IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS DID NOT HAPPEN 3 OF
THE LAST 5 YEARS, IF IT DOES HAPPEN, IT WOULD BE AROUND MID-
SEPTEMBER.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD HAPPEN
BRIEFLY IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR NORTON SOUND (NORTHEAST COASTLINE) THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-OCTOBER.
FOR THE YUKON DELTA, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF OCTOBER.
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE FIRST NEW ICE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF
OCTOBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK WEST TO 170W THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST NEW ICE
IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF OCTOBER.
FOR UTQIAGVIK TO 75N AND 170W, THE FIRST ICE WITHIN THE PACK IS
EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
OCTOBER BUT MORE LIKELY INTO NOVEMBER.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-OCTOBER.
THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF OCTOBER BUT IS MORE
LIKELY IN EARLY-NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE BEHIND
BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
THE FIRST NEW ICE WITHIN THE PACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS AND BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS, THE FIRST
NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER.
BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS THE FIRST NEW ICE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. SEVEN-TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER BUT MORE
LIKELY IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR DEMARCATION POINT TO UTQIAGVIK TO 75N, ICE GROWTH EXPANDING
SOUTH OF THE PACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
MERGING WITH COASTAL SEA ICE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER.
LAWSON
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