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FZAK30 PAFC 271845
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SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 AM AKDT THURSDAY 27 MARCH 2025
..MARCH 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY AND MARCH FEATURED A WILD SWING IN THE ICE EXTENT IN THE
BERING SEA. IN MID-FEBRUARY THE ICE EDGE HAD NEARLY RETREATED TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, ALONG WITH A LARGE POLYNYA OFF OF THE YUKON DELTA.
HOWEVER, MARCH FEATURED LONG DURATION NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A STORM
TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THE LARGE ADVANCE IN
THE LAST SIX WEEKS, THE ICE PACK IS WHAT I WOULD CALL, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE LIMITED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ICE EDGE ARE
1-2C WITH AREAS OF 3C NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. EVEN WITH CONTINUED
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR, SEA ICE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO WARMER
WATERS TO MELT. THOSE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE PASSING OF SPRING
EQUINOX MEANS WE ARE LIKELY CLOSE TO OUR MAXIMUM EXTENT FOR THE
SEASON. ICE GROWTH BECOMES HARDER AND HARDER AS DAYLIGHT INCREASES
RAPIDLY IN APRIL.
THE BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THIS SEASON IS TRICKY DUE TO THE RAPID
RETREAT THEN REGROWTH. MUCH OF THE SEA ICE WITHIN 200-300 NM OF THE
EDGE IS NEW AND YOUNG ICE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. IT WILL
LIKELY MELT FASTER IN THESE AREAS THAN YEARS PAST. HOWEVER,
NORTHWARD OF THE YUKON DELTA/ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, WINTER
TEMPERATURES AND SEA ICE HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FINDING ANALOG YEARS WAS DIFFICULT ONCE AGAIN THE CLOSEST ANALOG IS
2016, HOWEVER IT WAS NOT RELIED UPON HEAVILY DUE TO THE EARLY
MELTING DATES COMPARED TO OTHER ANALOG YEARS; THE PERIOD OF 2002-
2006 WERE ALL VERY CLOSE IN TERMS OF ICE EXTENT.
AS WE LOOK FORWARD THROUGH THE END OF “WINTER” AND INTO THE VERY
BEGINNING OF BREAK-UP SEASON, WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TOWARD ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GENERAL
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE LAST 10 YEARS. DESPITE THE ICE EDGE RECOVERING
RECENTLY, THE ICE WILL NOT HAVE HAD MUCH TIME TO THICKEN WHICH WILL
LIKELY FAVOR EARLIER THAN NORMAL BREAK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS,
WHERE I PUSHED BACK BREAK-UP DATES 1-2 WEEKS.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET
COOK INLET HAS VERY LITTLE ICE LEFT IN LATE-MARCH, WITH MAINLY OPEN
WATER OVERALL. RECENT TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE LOW-20S
HAVE ENCOURAGED SOME DIURNAL ICE GROWTH THAT IS MELTING DURING THE
DAY. COOK INLET IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
APRIL FOR THE SEASON.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA
BRISTOL BAY WILL BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF APRIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEW GREASE ICE FORMS UNDER
TRANSIENT COLD AIR MASSES AT NIGHT, HOWEVER THAT ICE WILL BE DIURNAL
AND SHORT-LIVED.
IN THE LAST MONTH, THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AS THE STORM TRACK HAS
BEEN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY.
AT ONE POINT, RETREAT AND WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR FLOW HAD MELTED MOST
OF THE PACK ICE BEFORE REGROWING LATE IN THE SEASON. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHOREFAST ICE HANGING ON LONGER WHILE THE
PACK ICE MELTS QUICKLY.
WITHIN KUSKOKWIM BAY, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THREE TENTHS BY THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL AND BECOME SEA ICE FREE
BY MID-MAY.
ETOLIN STRAIT SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THREE TENTHS DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF MAY AND BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMANZOF, ICE WILL NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MID-MAY.
FOR CAPE ROMANZOF TO NUNAM IQUA, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NUNAM IQUA TO UNALAKLEET, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. THREE-TENTHS CONCENTRATION
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF MAY. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING LATE APRIL,
AND ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY.
FOR NORTON BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF MAY. THREE-TENTHS OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING LATE MAY.
ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LATE MAY BUT MORE LIKELY IN JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, SEA ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST
DURING LATE MAY. THREE-TENTHS CONCENTRATION OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
DURING LATE MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
JUNE.
FOR THE NOME AREA, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST AROUND
MID-MAY. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF MAY, BUT
MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON SOUND, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-MAY.
ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF MAY, BUT MORE LIKELY
IN EARLY JUNE.
FOR PORT CLARENCE, ICE WILL NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST IN EARLY JUNE.
THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID-JUNE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY.
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY.
FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE.
THE BEING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
THE BERING SEA WILL BE ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST
DURING EARLY JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND
HALF OF JUNE. OPEN WATER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF JUNE.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST IN
EARLY JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-JUNE, AND
OPEN WATER IN LATE-JUNE.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST IN LATE-MAY. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF JUNE. OPEN WATER IS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF
JUNE.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST AROUND MID-JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF JUNE, BUT MORE LIKELY INTO JULY.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO BARROW ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST
IN LATE JUNE.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
BY THE END OF JUNE, BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN JULY.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
BY THE END OF JUNE BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY JULY.
LAWSON
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