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FZAK30 PAFC 261727
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
826 AM AKST THURSDAY 26 FEBRUARY 2026
…FEBRUARY 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
THE MONTH BEGAN WITH THE ICE EDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN THE ICE
MAXIMUM IN THE BERING SEA FOR MANY OF THE LAST 20 YEARS. THE ICE
EDGE HAD REACHED SAINT PAUL ISLAND ON FEBRUARY 4TH WHICH IS TIED FOR
THE 4TH EARLIEST DATE OF THE LAST 28 YEARS. HOWEVER, THE
METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN CHANGED, SHIFTING THE STORM INTO THE BERING
SEA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ICE EDGE MELTED AND RETREATED THE
ICE EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND TO NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM. COOK INLET HAD A SIMILAR TREND WHERE THE INLET HAD THE
MOST ICE EXTENT IN MANY YEARS, VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON. AIR
TEMPERATURES IN COOK INLET WARMED TO NEAR FREEZING, WHICH WAS ENOUGH
TO MELT MUCH OF THE NEWLY FORMED ICE, LEAVING A CORRIDOR OF FIRST
YEAR THIN ICE FROM THE UPPER INLET PAST KALGIN ISLAND.
LOOKING FORWARD TO LATE-WINTER AND EARLY BREAK-UP, MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE IS SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD OF ADVANCE AND
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE BERING SEA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ICE EDGE
RETURNS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ALASKA
REACHES THE SEA ICE MAXIMUM FOR THE YEAR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MARCH. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
BY THE END OF WINTER AND REMAIN FOR EARLY SUMMER.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
THE ICE EDGE REACHED SAINT PAUL ISLAND DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY BEFORE A MID-MONTH RETREAT. THE ICE EDGE WILL LIKELY REACH
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.
THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SAINT GEORGE DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH.
ICE FORMATION IN IZEMBEK LAGOON OR ICE IN FALSE PASS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT GEORGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
MARCH, HOWEVER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PREVAILING STORM
TRACK. A STORM TRACK TO THE EAST INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL LINGER ICE
NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LONGER.
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT PAUL ISLAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF APRIL.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-APRIL. ICE
FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MAY.
FOR KUSKOKWIM BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN BY THE END OF
MAY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY IN EARLY JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE OR ICE FREE
COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF MAY BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMONZOF, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MAY. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF MAY BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY
JUNE.
FOR CAPE ROMONZOF TO NUNAM IQUA, ICE COULD BE NO LONGER SHOREFAST BY
THE END OF MAY BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF MAY. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF MAY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY DURING EARLY JUNE.
FOR NORTON BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE END
OF MAY BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY-JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE
END OF MAY BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY-JUNE.
FOR THE NOME COAST, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF MAY.
FOR NORTON SOUND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF MAY BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN EARLY-JUNE.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND ICE FREE OR OPEN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF APRIL.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
APRIL.
FOR THE FORELANDS TO FIRE ISLAND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL.
TURNAGAIN ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE THIRD
WEEK OF APRIL.
KNIK ARM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL, ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
APRIL.
COOK INLET OUTSIDE OF TURNAGAIN AND KNIK ARMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE OR OPEN DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL.
COOK INLET SEA ICE FREE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
LAWSON
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