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FZAK30 PAFC 161645
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
845 AM AKDT FRIDAY 16 OCTOBER 2026
…OCTOBER 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
FREEZE-UP IS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. AS
OF MID-OCTOBER, THE CHUKCHI SEA IS AT 200% OF THE 2005-2025 AVERAGE
AND THE BEAUFORT SEA IS AT 123% (BASED ON NSIDC IMS). ICE GROWTH SO
FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN A WEEK OR TWO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF THE LATE MELT OUT. THE NORTH SLOPE MELTED THE LAST OF ITS
ICE IN NAVIGATIONAL WATERS IN LATE SEPTEMBER, THOUGH SOME VERY LOW
CONCENTRATION SECOND-YEAR ICE REMAINED BETWEEN KAKTOVIK AND
DEMARCATION POINT.
AS SEA ICE LINGERED IN MOST OF THE BEAUFORT SEA, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT HAD VERY FAR TO COOL COMPARED TO RECENT YEARS.
THE AREA BETWEEN THE COASTAL ICE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE
GROWING PACK IS BEGINNING TO FREEZE AS OF MID-OCTOBER. HANNA SHOAL
HAD A COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM SEA ICE LINGERING INTO SEPTEMBER AND
HAS ALREADY FROZEN UP WITH NEW ICE. PROTECTED AREAS OF KOTZEBUE
SOUND AND NORTON BAY HAVE FORMED NEW ICE AND ARE USUALLY THE FIRST
PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTON SOUND.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO FREEZE-UP, 2025 REMAINS THE CLOSEST ANALOG YEAR
DESPITE MORE ICE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT THIS YEAR. A
MODERATE EL NINO EVENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR A
STRONG EVENT. THE OUTLOOK WILL ADDITIONALLY LEAN ON THE ANALOG YEAR
OF 2015 DUE TO EL-NINO INFLUENCE. EL-NINO HAS A STRONGER CORRELATION
GOING INTO WINTER WHICH MAY DELAY FREEZE-UP IN THE BERING SEA AND
COOK INLET.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE FROM BARRIER ISLANDS,
SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR DEMARCATION POINT TO UTQIAGVIK TO 75N, MERGING WITH COASTAL SEA
ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF OCTOBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FOURTH WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW, SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK WEST TO 170W SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. ICE COVERED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST NEW ICE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR UTQIAGVIK TO 75N AND 170W, SEVEN TENTHS IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND
WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD
WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE BEHIND
BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN
TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER LINE, SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR NORTON SOUND THE FIRST NEW ICE (NORTHEAST COASTLINE) IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR THE YUKON DELTA, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK
OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK
OF NOVEMBER.
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, FREEZE-UP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY WARMER AIR FROM
EL-NINO CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE THE FIRST ICE
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE
END OF DECEMBER OR EARLY JAN. THE LAST STRONG EL-NINO YEAR OF 2015,
BRISTOL BAY DID NOT REACH THREE OR SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE.
THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AROUND
MID-DECEMBER.
THE ICE EDGE TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN IN THE
FIRST HALF OF JANUARY.
COASTAL ICE EXTENDING WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
THE ICE EDGE TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND HAPPENS AROUND 50% OF THE YEARS ON
RECORD. IF IT HAPPENS THIS YEAR IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FEBRUARY.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
IN ALL OF ALASKA WATERS, COOK INLET IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY STRENGTHENING EL NINO CONDITIONS WITH A LATER FREEZE-UP
AND MORE MELTING EVENTS IN WINTER. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN THE
BEGINNING PORTION OF WINTER WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE
NORTH WILL BE THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF FREEZE-UP. AS WE PROGRESS DEEPER
INTO WINTER, CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT WE WILL GET MORE WARM AIR
EVENTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION THE FIRST
ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE
FORELANDS THE FIRST ICE COULD HAPPEN DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DECEMBER.
NORTH OF THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE COULD BE DELAYED TO
JANUARY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING EL-NINO.
ALONG THE COAST FROM KENAI TO NIKISKI, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-DECEMBER.
FOR 60N TO THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL MID-JANUARY. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED.
ICE TO NINILCHIK OR ANCHOR POINT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON.
LAWSON
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