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FZAK30 PAFC 261712
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
912 AM AKDT TUESDAY 26 MARCH 2024
..MARCH 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK
ANOTHER ROUND OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA
BROUGHT THE ICE PACK SOUTH AGAIN, AND STRIPS OF SEA ICE REACHED ST.
PAUL ISLAND IN MID-MARCH. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THEN SWITCHED
AGAIN WITH LOWS MOVING NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA AND BRINGING WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THEM. THE ICE PACK RETREATED AND MADE ONE MORE
ADVANCEMENT SOUTH DURING THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH, WITH STRIPS OF
ICE MAKING IT WITHIN A FEW MILES OF ST. PAUL ISLAND ONCE AGAIN.
LOOKING AHEAD TO BREAK-UP SEASON, EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA WATERS TO
OVERALL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING LATE SPRING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE ICE PACK TO BREAK UP QUICKER THAN AVERAGE ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
INTO MAY AND JUNE.
DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN EACH PERTINENT SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE BY THE END OF
MARCH.
FROM THE FORELANDS TO FIRE ISLAND, THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.
TURNAGAIN ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF APRIL.
KNIK ARM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THREE-TENTHS THEN BE SEA ICE FREE BY
THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL.
COOK INLET IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR BRISTOL BAY, WHILE SEA ICE CONCENTRATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON, THE LAST TIME IT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS THE FOURTH
WEEK OF MARCH. BRISTOL BAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE
SEASON DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL.
FOR KUSKOKWIM BAY, THE SHOREFAST ICE IS TYPICALLY THE LAST ICE
WITHIN THE BAY TO MELT. THAT ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL OR FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SEA
ICE WITHIN KUSKOKWIM BAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AND BE SEA ICE FREE BY
THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION BY THE END OF APRIL AND BE SEA ICE FREE BY MID-MAY.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMANZOF, ICE WILL NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
AROUND MID-APRIL. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
THIRD WEEK OF MAY.
FOR CAPE ROMANZOF TO KWIKPAK, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST BY MID-MAY. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE THEN SEA ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY.
FOR KWIKPAK TO UNALAKLEET, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST
BY MID-MAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATION WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TENTHS BY THE
END OF MAY AND BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-MAY.
SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF MAY.
AROUND NORTON BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST AROUND
MID-MAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATION WITHIN NORTON BAY WILL REACH 3 TENTHS
BY THE END OF MAY AND SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS COULD HAPPEN BY THE
END OF MAY BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
ALONG THE NOME COAST, DATES OF THE LAST SHOREFAST ICE ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE FROM MAY TO JUNE AND WILL DEPEND ON THE PREVAILING STORM
TRACK AND AIR TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT ICE
TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST BY MID-MAY. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF MAY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR PORT CLARENCE, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION THEN BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID-MAY.
THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA
ICE FREE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THREE TENTHS SEA ICE CONCENTRATION AROUND MID-JUNE.
THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE TO 20 NM NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTER LINE AROUND MID-JUNE.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE BY THE FOURTH WEEK OF
JUNE.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR WALES TO SHISHMAREF, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST
BY THE END OF MAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THREE
TENTHS AROUND MID-JUNE AND BE SEA ICE FREE FOR THE SEASON DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST BY
THE END OF MAY. SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3
TENTHS THEN BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, SEA ICE
IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-JUNE AND SEA ICE
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FROM FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO
LONGER BE SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE.
SCHRECK
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