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FZAK30 PAFC 212123
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
123 PM AKDT TUESDAY 21 APRIL 2026
…APRIL 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
MARCH ENDED WITH THE GREATEST ICE EXTENT THE EASTERN BERING SEA HAS
SEEN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS. SEA ICE HAS NEARLY COVERED THE ENTIRETY
OF THE CONTINENTAL SHELF IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA, WITH
COASTAL ICE EXTENDING DOWN THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO NEAR CAPE
SARICHEF. STRIPS OF ICE FROM THE MAIN PACK EVEN MIGRATED INTO UNIMAK
PASS. SEA ICE CHOKED OFF FALSE PASS WHICH ALSO HAS NOT HAPPENED IN
THE LAST 50 YEARS.
THE WESTERN BERING SEA, HOWEVER, REMAINED NEAR AVERAGE DUE TO THE
POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE, BRINGING ON-ICE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
THE ICE EDGE. THE STORM TRACK SHIFTED IN APRIL, BRINGING SEVERAL
SUCCESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE BERING SEA, AND A PATTERN
OF SIGNIFICANT RETREAT. THE STORM TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
DID BRING CONSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA,
AND THE GREATEST EXTENT OF THE SEASON. AN IMPORTANT CONTEXT IN THE
ICE SEASON IS THAT ARCTIC-WIDE SEA ICE SET A RECORD FOR LOW-MAXIMUM
ICE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
COOK INLET HAD A LARGELY ABOVE AVERAGE EXTENT FOR THE SEASON.
HOWEVER, SEA ICE MELTED OUT THROUGH APRIL AT A FAIRLY NORMAL RATE
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. DESPITE THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN
MARCH, CONSTANT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTED THE THICKEST ICE SOUTHWARD
INTO WARMER WATERS NEAR KAMISHAK BAY TO MELT.
LOOKING FORWARD TO BREAK-UP, LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IN SPRING WITH CHANCES FOR EL NINO
RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH SUMMER.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AND SAINT PAUL ISLAND, WE MAY HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THE LAST ICE. WITH THE ICE RETREATING ~100 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS OF 4/21, IT WOULD TAKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS WE MOVE INTO BREAK-
UP.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK
OF MAY.
FOR KUSKOKWIM BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMONZOF, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR CAPE ROMONZOF TO NUNAM IQUA, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR NUNAM IQUA TO UNALAKLEET, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
END OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-
JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-
JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
JUNE.
FOR THE NOME COAST, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON SOUND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR PORT CLARENCE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO EARLY JULY.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE BY MID-JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE-
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID-JULY.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND MID-JULY.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AROUND MID-JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF JULY.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF JULY, BUT IS MOST LIKELY INTO
EARLY AUGUST.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE END OF JUNE BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE
BEGINNING OF JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
FOR THE FORELANDS TO FIRE ISLAND, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
TURNAGAIN ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE LAST
WEEK OF APRIL.
KNIK ARM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ICE FREE OR OPEN CONDITIONS DURING THE
LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
COOK INLET OUTSIDE OF TURNAGAIN AND KNIK ARMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE OR OPEN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
COOK INLET SEA ICE FREE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
LAWSON
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