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FZAK30 PAFC 232300
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER 2025
…OCTOBER 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
DURING THE PAST MONTH, THERE WAS A VERY SEASONABLE TRANSITION FROM
MELT REGIME TO GROWTH REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC, BEAUFORT SEA,
AND CHUKCHI SEA. THE SEA ICE MINIMUM FOR THE ENTIRE ARCTIC WAS
DECLARED BY THE NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER ON SEPTEMBER 10TH.
NEW ICE STARTED FORMING WITHIN THE ICE PACK IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. NEW ICE STARTED FORMING BEHIND
BARRIER ISLANDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE LAST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER/FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS, SEA
ICE HAS FROZEN UP FROM POINT LAY THROUGH THE NORTH SLOPE, WITH SOME
ICE GROWING BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS. THE COLD POOL OVER HANNA SHOAL
HAS FROZEN UP QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NEW ICE IS ALSO
GROWING OUT FROM PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN KOTZEBUE SOUND.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGH ARCTIC IS ICE COVERED.
AS WE LOOK FORWARD INTO FREEZE-UP, LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
AND ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY 2026. FOR NOVEMBER AND
DECEMBER 2025, STRENGTHENING LA NINA CONDITIONS COULD KEEP THE
GENERAL STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THUS, THE FLUCTUATION BETWEEN ICE GROWTH AND
ICE MELT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED COMPARED TO RECENT YEARS, AND SEA ICE
MAY BEGIN TO ESTABLISH BEYOND THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS EARLIER THAN
RECENT YEARS. WHILE THE GENERAL STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA AND POSSIBLY THE
CHUKCHI SEA, AND THIS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE FOLLOWING FREE-UP
DATES. FOR JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY 2026, LA NINA IS FAVORED BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA, SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE OF SEA ICE
BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER, BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO BARROW OFFSHORE TO 75N, THE MAIN ICE PACK
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH THE NEW SEA ICE OFF THE ALASKA
COASTLINE DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER, BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED
TO THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW, SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW OFFSHORE WEST TO 170W, SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE IS LIKELY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. ICE COVERED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT HOPE TO ICY CAPE, THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, DATES WHEN THIS AREA
REACHES SEVEN TENTHS VARIES FROM YEAR TO YEAR. THIS YEAR, SEVEN
TENTHS COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER BUT
COULD BE DELAYED TO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
WITHIN KOTZEBUE SOUND, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, THE FIRST
ICE WIDELY VARIES FROM YEAR TO YEAR FROM OCTOBER THROUGH NOVEMBER
BASED ON WEATHER PATTERNS BUT LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER THIS YEAR. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG, THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, OUTSIDE OF KOTZEBUE SOUND, THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE WITHIN
20 NM OF THE CENTER LINE BY THE END OF NOVEMBER OR FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
SEA ICE HAS BEGUN TO FORM WITHIN GOLOVIN BAY AND NORTON BAY. THREE
TENTHS SEA ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAIN SOUND DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE
LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
ALONG THE YUKON RIVER DELTA, WE HAVE BEGUN TO OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME
SMALL AREAS OF NEW ICE. THIS NEW ICE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
BY THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER DELTA, THE FIRST ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THE INCREASE FROM FIRST SEA ICE
TO THREE TENTHS COVERAGE CAN TAKE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE DAYS TO A
FEW WEEKS DEPENDING ON HOW PERSISTENT THE COLDER AIR IS IN THE AREA.
THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE THIRD
WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
NOVEMBER.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE VARIES YEAR TO YEAR BASED ON
HOW QUICKLY ARCTIC AIR SETS UP OVER THE AREA, FROM NOVEMBER INTO
DECEMBER. AT THIS TIME, WE EXPECT THE FIRST SEA ICE FORMATION WITHIN
BRISTOL BAY BY MID-NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. IF ARCTIC AIR IS PERSISTENT,
SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE COULD HAPPEN SOMETIME TOWARD THE END OF
DECEMBER, HOWEVER DATES VARY WILDLY HISTORICALLY, EVEN INTO JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY.
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER, MORE LIKELY DURING THE SECOND WEEK.
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY.
COASTAL ICE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AROUND MID-
DECEMBER.
THE ICE EDGE REACHING SAINT PAUL ISLAND OCCURS ABOUT 50% OF THE
YEARS ON RECORD. IF IT OCCURS THIS YEAR, IT COULD BE AROUND THE END
OF JANUARY BUT IS MORE LIKELY IN FEBRUARY.
COASTAL ICE LIKELY WILL NOT REACH PORT MOLLER THIS SEASON, BUT IF IT
DOES, IT COULD HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SEA ICE DEVELOPMENT IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE FIRST ARCTIC AIR MASS SETS UP OVERHEAD. AS SUCH, DATES
OF FIRST ICE VARY WILDLY FROM YEAR TO YEAR. THIS YEAR, LA NINA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH DECEMBER AND THEN
WEAKEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEA ICE
EXTENT WITHIN COOK INLET WILL BE LESS IN EARLY 2026 THAN IN LATE
2025.
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO PT. POSSESSION, THE FIRST
SEA ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THIS CAN
FLUCTUATE A WEEK OR SO EARLIER OR LATER DEPENDING ON LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERNS THIS FALL.
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE
FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER.
NORTH OF THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER, USUALLY HAVING SIMILAR TIMING TO WHEN
THE FIRST SEA ICE FORMATION OCCURS SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. SEVEN
TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER, BUT IT
COULD BE DELAYED TO THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY.
ALONG THE COAST FROM KENAI TO NIKISKI, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KALGIN ISLAND BY THE END OF
DECEMBER.
FOR THE AREA FROM 60N TO THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY.
SEA ICE MAY REACH NINILCHIK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY.
SEA ICE MAY NOT REACH ANCHOR POINT THIS SEASON, BUT IF IT DOES, IT
COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF JANUARY.
FENRICH
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