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FZAK30 PAFC 281857
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1056 AM AKDT THURSDAY 28 MAY 2026
…MAY 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
THE MELT SEASON GOT INTO FULL SWING OVER THE LAST MONTH. DESPITE THE
RECORD ICE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA, SEA ICE MELTED OUT AT A
SIMILAR RATE TO THE LAST 5 YEARS. PACK ICE STILL REMAINS BETWEEN ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND ST. MATTHEW ISLAND, HOWEVER THE RATE OF MELT IS
INCREASING SO QUICKLY THAT ONLY MARGINAL ICE MAY BE LEFT BY JUNE.
SHOREFAST ICE REMAINS QUICKLY DEGRADED FROM THE YUKON DELTA THROUGH
ALL OF THE NORTON SOUND COAST. A LARGE POLYNYA EXISTS BETWEEN CAPE
LISBURNE AND POINT FRANKLIN AND WILL LIKELY START TO EXPAND AS WE
MOVE INTO BREAK-UP.
LOOKING FORWARD TO BREAK-UP, LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IN SPRING WITH CHANCES FOR EL NINO
RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH SUMMER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUMMER, THE RATE OF MELT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES MATERIALIZE.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR BRISTOL BAY, AN AREA OF PACK ICE REMAINS BETWEEN CAPE NEWENHAM
AND CAPE CONSTANTINE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR KUSKOKWIM BAY, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR ETOLIN STRAIT TO CAPE ROMONZOF, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR CAPE ROMONZOF TO NUNAM IQUA, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NUNAM IQUA TO UNALAKLEET, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THE END OF JUNE.
FOR SHAKTOOLIK LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS OF ICE AND ICE FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON BAY, THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR GOLOVIN BAY, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE NOME COAST, ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR NORTON SOUND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR PORT CLARENCE, LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N, THERE IS LINGERING ICE BETWEEN CAPE
NEWENHAM AND CAPE CONSTANTINE, OTHERWISE THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF 60N
IS ICE FREE.
FOR THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JUNE.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
JULY.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE-
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE SHOREFAST DURING
THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE, WEST TO 170W, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE OR OPEN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, ICE COULD NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF JUNE, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE FIRST
WEEK OF JULY.. LESS THAN THREE-TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
FOURTH WEEK OF JULY.
FOR WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF JULY, BUT IS MOST LIKELY INTO
EARLY AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE FIRST
HALF OF AUGUST.
FOR ICY CAPE TO BARROW WEST TO 170W, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. ICE FREE OR OPEN
CONDITIONS COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF AUGUST BUT ARE MORE LIKELY IN
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE OR ICE FREE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR BUT IF
IT DOES IT WILL BE IN MID-SEPTEMBER.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE OR
OPEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST.
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE OR ICE FREE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN SEPTEMBER.
FOR CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE
SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE OR ICE FREE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF AUGUST BUT IS MORE
LIKELY INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES IT WOULD HAPPEN IN
MID-SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT, ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO BE SHOREFAST BY THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. LESS THAN THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF AUGUST BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO
THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID-SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N LESS THAN THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS YEAR BUT IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE IN MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LAWSON
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