886  
FZAK30 PAFC 251937  
ICOAFC  
 
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA  
1137 AM AKDT THURSDAY 25 SEPTEMBER 2025  
 
…SEPTEMBER 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…  
 
THE ARCTIC SEA ICE MINIMUM WAS DECLARED ON SEPTEMBER 10TH, 2025.  
DURING THE PAST MONTH, SEA ICE HAS CONTINUED TO MELT ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE CHUKCHI SEA, HIGH ARCTIC, NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA, AND NEAR THE  
NORTHERN COAST OF ALASKA. THIS RESULTED IN SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS  
ALONG THE ENTIRE ALASKA COAST AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD AREAS OF OPEN  
WATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHUKCHI, BEAUFORT, AND HIGH ARCTIC. SEA ICE  
MELTED BACK TO NEAR 78N IN MUCH OF THE HIGH ARCTIC WHILE AN AREA OF  
MULTI-YEAR ICE LINGERED BETWEEN 73N TO 75N NEAR THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI  
SEA. A SMALLER AREA OF SEA ICE JUST OFF THE NW ALASKA COAST (HANNA  
SHOAL) ALSO LINGERED WHILE SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGHOUT SEPTEMBER.  
LASTLY, THERE WAS A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF MULTI-YEAR SEA ICE THAT  
REMAINED WITHIN THE BEAUFORT SEA BETWEEN 72N AND 73N THROUGH  
SEPTEMBER. NEW SEA ICE GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE ICE PACK  
IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CHUKCHI SEA.  
 
AS WE LOOK FORWARD INTO THE FIRST MONTHS OF FREEZE-UP, ENSO-NEUTRAL  
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO LA NINA WITHIN THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF MONTHS. STORM TRACKS DURING LA NINA TEND TO TRACK SOUTH  
OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS DOESN’T MEAN A FEW STORMS  
WON’T TRACK THROUGH THE BERING SEA, HOWEVER THE FLUCTUATION BETWEEN  
ICE GROWTH AND ICE MELT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED COMPARED TO RECENT  
YEARS. FREEZE-UP LOOKS TO BE EARLIER THAN NORMAL THIS SEASON AS  
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF ICE LEFT IN THE BEAUFORT SEA AND SEA  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.  
 
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.  
   
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
 
 
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, SEA ICE HAS  
MOSTLY MELTED, BUT MULTI-YEAR ICE IS STILL PRESENT FROM 73N TO 75N.  
ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON  
   
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA
 
 
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT, SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE  
PRESENT FROM THE COAST NORTH TO ABOUT 71N. THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF  
MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 71N AND 72N AND ALSO BETWEEN 73N AND 75N.  
THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.  
ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON NORTH OF 71N.  
 
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE  
PRESENT FROM THE COAST NORTH UP TO ABOUT 72N. THERE IS STILL A BAND  
OF MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 72N AND 73N. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE AND ICE  
FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON DUE TO THE BAND OF  
LINGERING MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 72N AND 73N.  
 
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N, SEA ICE FREE  
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FROM THE COAST NORTH TO ABOUT 71N. THERE IS  
STILL A BAND OF MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 72N AND 73N. THREE TENTHS  
COVERAGE AND ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON DUE TO  
THE BAND OF LINGERING MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 72N AND 73N.  
 
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…  
 
NEW SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING BEHIND THE BARRIER ISLANDS  
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
SEA ICE WILL LIKELY BEGIN EXTENDING BEYOND THE BARRIER ISLANDS BY  
THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE OF SEA ICE BEYOND  
THE BARRIER ISLANDS UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST  
WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
 
FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO BARROW OFFSHORE TO 75N, SEA ICE WILL  
LIKELY BEGIN FORMING SOUTH FROM THE MAIN ICE PACK DURING THE FIRST  
WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
 
FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO BARROW OFFSHORE TO 75N, THE MAIN ICE PACK  
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH THE NEW SEA ICE OFF THE ALASKA  
COASTLINE BY THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
 
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…  
 
FROM ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING  
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. FOR UP TO 20 NM  
OFFSHORE, SEVEN TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST  
WEEK OF NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW, SEVEN TENTHS  
CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER BUT IS  
MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW OFFSHORE WEST TO 170W, THE FIRST NEW  
ICE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF OCTOBER OR DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF  
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND  
HALF OF NOVEMBER. ICE COVERED IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-DECEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT HOPE TO ICY CAPE, THE FIRST SEA  
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE  
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN  
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, DATES OF FREEZE-UP ARE  
HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM YEAR TO YEAR. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION  
OF ICE NOT COMPLETELY MELTING OUT, FREEZE-UP SHOULD BE QUICKER THAN  
RECENT YEARS. THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE  
THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-  
NOVEMBER.  
 
WITHIN KOTZEBUE SOUND, THE FIRST SEA ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, THE FIRST  
ICE WIDELY VARIES FROM YEAR TO YEAR FROM OCTOBER THROUGH NOVEMBER  
BASED ON WEATHER PATTERNS BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE SECOND WEEK  
OF NOVEMBER THIS YEAR. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG, THE FIRST SEA ICE  
FORMATION BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED BY THE THIRD WEEK OF  
OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.  
SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF NOVEMBER OR DURING  
THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.  
 
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE OF ICE IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE  
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.  
 
THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE WITHIN  
20 NM OF THE CENTER LINE AROUND MID-DECEMBER.  
 
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…  
 
WITHIN NORTON SOUND, THE FIRST SEA ICE USUALLY FORMS WITHIN NORTON  
BAY, THEN GOLOVIN BAY BEFORE FORMING WITHIN THE MAIN SOUND. THE  
FIRST SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF  
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF  
NOVEMBER BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.  
 
ALONG THE YUKON RIVER DELTA, THE FIRST ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED  
BY MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND  
HALF OF NOVEMBER.  
 
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER DELTA, THE FIRST ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.  
 
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE VARIES YEAR TO YEAR BASED ON  
HOW QUICKLY ARCTIC AIR SETS UP OVER THE AREA, FROM NOVEMBER INTO  
DECEMBER. THE FIRST ICE IS POSSIBLE BY MID-NOVEMBER, BUT COULD BE  
DELAYED TO THE END OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.  
 
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AROUND  
MID-DECEMBER.  
 
THE MAIN ICE EDGE COULD REACH SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY THE END OF  
DECEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY.  
 
COASTAL ICE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER.  
 
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…  
 
SEA ICE IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL AND  
DURATION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THE PREVAILING  
STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHETHER INTO BRISTOL  
BAY, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, OR TOWARD THE PANHANDLE, DICTATES WHEN  
ICE FORMS AND IF IT IS ALLOWED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  
 
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO PT. POSSESSION, THE FIRST  
SEA ICE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER, BUT MORE LIKELY  
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.  
 
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE  
FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
NOVEMBER.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF  
NOVEMBER OR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.  
 
NORTH OF THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING  
THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER, BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED TO  
JANUARY.  
 
ALONG THE COAST FROM KENAI TO NIKISKI, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED  
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER, BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED TO  
JANUARY.  
 

 
FENRICH  
 
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