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FZAK30 PAFC 232049
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1249 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2026
…SEPTEMBER 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
SEASONAL MELT CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER APPROACHING
SEA ICE MINIMUM. LOWER CONCENTRATIONS OF MARGINAL ICE ON THE EDGE OF
PACK ICE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE BEAUFORT GYRE WERE THE MAIN AREAS
OF MELT. THE PACK ICE IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DID BEGIN TO SHOW SOME
WEAKNESS WITH SMALL LEADS OPENING AS ICE MELTED. HOWEVER, WE BEGAN
TO SEE NEW ICE STARTING TO GROW WITHIN THESE LEADS AS EARLY AS
SEPTEMBER 9, THOUGH NEW SEA ICE GROWTH DIDN’T BEGIN TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED FOR ANOTHER 1-2 WEEKS. WHILE WE STILL HAVE SOME MARGINAL
ICE REMAINING ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN PRUDHOE BAY AND THE MACKENZIE
RIVER DELTA, A WESTERLY WIND/WAVE EVENT IN THE LAST MONTH TOOK A BIG
BITE OUT OF MUCH OF THAT ICE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO HAVE PEAKED FOR THE SEASON AND
ARE COOLING BACK DOWN TOWARD FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE ARE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES C COOLER THAN LAST YEAR. THERE ARE
WIDE AREAS OFFSHORE THAT ARE BELOW 0C AND WILL ICE UP QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
LOOKING FORWARD TO FREEZE-UP, 2025 REMAINS THE CLOSEST ANALOG YEAR
DESPITE MORE ICE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT THIS YEAR. A
MODERATE EL NINO EVENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR A
STRONG EVENT. THE OUTLOOK WILL ADDITIONALLY LEAN ON ANALOG YEARS OF
2015 AND 2018 DUE TO THEIR EL-NINO INFLUENCE. EL-NINO HAS A STRONGER
CORRELATION GOING INTO WINTER WHICH MAY DELAY FREEZE-UP IN THE
BERING SEA AND COOK INLET. IT IS LESS CLEAR WHAT FREEZE-UP FOR THE
BEAUFORT SEA AS THE STRONGEST EL-NINO YEARS HAVE A MIX OF BELOW TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
FOR FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS AND BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS, THE FIRST
NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS THE FIRST NEW ICE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER.
FOR DEMARCATION POINT TO UTQIAGVIK TO 75N, ICE GROWTH EXPANDING
SOUTH OF THE PACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
MERGING WITH COASTAL SEA ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF
OCTOBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW, SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO UTQIAGVIK WEST TO 170W THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. ICE COVERED IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF NOVEMBER.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICE CAPE UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST NEW ICE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR UTQIAGVIK TO 75N AND 170W, THE FIRST ICE WITHIN THE PACK IS
EXPECTED AROUND DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS IS
EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK
OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND WEEK OF
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO ESPENBERG UP TO 20 NM OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ICE BEHIND
BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NOVEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY
IN EARLY DECEMBER.
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN-TENTHS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
FOR THE BERING STRAIT WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER LINE, SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR NORTON SOUND THE FIRST NEW ICE (NORTHEAST COASTLINE) IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
IN MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE-NOVEMBER.
FOR THE YUKON DELTA, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NOVEMBER.
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN MID-
NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE FIRST HALF OF
DECEMBER.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, FREEZE-UP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY WARMER AIR FROM
EL-NINO CONDITIONS AND NOT HAPPEN UNTIL EARLY-DECEMBER. THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL JANUARY.
THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AROUND
MID-DECEMBER.
THE ICE EDGE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF DECEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN IN JANUARY.
COASTAL ICE EXTENDING WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
IN ALL OF ALASKA WATERS, COOK INLET IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY STRENGTHENING EL NINO CONDITIONS WITH A LATER FREEZE-UP
AND MORE MELTING EVENTS IN WINTER. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN THE
BEGINNING PORTION OF WINTER WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE
NORTH WILL BE THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF FREEZE-UP. AS WE PROGRESS DEEPER
INTO WINTER, CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT WE WILL GET MORE WARM AIR
EVENTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT EL-NINO WINTERS,
FREEZE-UP DATES COVER A 6 WEEK RANGE.
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION THE FIRST
ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE
FORELANDS THE FIRST ICE COULD HAPPEN BY THE END OF NOVEMBER BUT IS
MORE LIKELY IN EARLY DECEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DECEMBER.
NORTH OF THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER, BUT COULD BE DELAYED TO JANUARY DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING EL-NINO.
ALONG THE COAST FROM KENAI TO NIKISKI, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-DECEMBER.
FOR 60N TO THE FORELANDS, THREE TENTHS ICE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL JANUARY. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED.
ICE TO NINILCHIK OR ANCHOR POINT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS SEASON.
LAWSON
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