858
FZAK80 PAFC 250011
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
311 PM AKDT MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 29 NOVEMBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS...A DUAL-CENTER LOW STRETCHES FROM ADAK THROUGH COLD BAY
WHICH WILL SPIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A NEW LOW WILL
APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A NEW SYSTEM/WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH SATURDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE PACK ICE
PUSHING UP AGAINST THE COAST/SHOREFAST ICE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
PROLONGED EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THE PACK
ICE AND THE SHOREFAST ICE ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST. THE PACK
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 NM/DAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
THE BERING STRAIT HAS FROZEN WITH NEW ICE, HOWEVER TWO AREAS OF ICE
FREE CONDITION/OPEN WATER EXIST OUTSIDE OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AS WELL AS
WEST OF POINT HOPE.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. PROLONGED EASTERLY WINDS WILL OPEN A POLYNYA
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COASTLINE OF ALASKA. THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH
THAT THIS POLYNYA SHOULD FREEZE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED FREEZE-UP, THE CHUKCHI AS A WHOLE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY PACK ICE SAVE FOR AN AREA OF MARGINAL ICE THAT DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO WEST OF POINT HOPE.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
TO 61 42’N 167 11’W TO 64N 165W TO 65 23’N 168 23’W TO 63 46’N 173W
AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TO 40 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY TO
45 NM SOUTH OF NOME TO 13 NM SOUTH OF WALES TO 30 NM WEST OF GAMBELL
AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT NORTON SOUND TO CONTINUE TO FREEZE, POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE OUTER SOUND ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FORM A
POLYNYA ALONG THE EASTERN SOUND. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER
BRISTOL BAY, NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH WILL PAUSE ICE GROWTH IN
THIS AREA.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
THERE IS ICE GROWING IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK ARM, PRIMARILY ON THE
MUDFLATS. THIS ICE IS GETTING MOVED OFF THE MUDFLATS WITH THE TIDES.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IS ENCOURAGING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL AND
GROWING ICE IN PROTECTED AREAS. GROWING CONDITION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATE WEEK, A WARM FRONT WILL STOP GROWTH AND
LIKELY MELT MUCH OF THE EXISTING ICE THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND UPPER
COOK INLET.
LAWSON
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