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FZAK80 PAFC 172352
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
252 PM AKDT MONDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
BERING SEA MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY/ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL TEST SHOREFASTED ICE.
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT MOST SHOREFAST ICE SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS REDEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MOVE PACK ICE TO THE WEST AROUDN 5-10 NM/DAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
WARMER AIR MASS TO THE AREA WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ICE GROWTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR WALES TO 66
43’N 165 12’W TO 69 1’N 168 40’W TO 70 16’N 163 9’W TO 70 19’N 168
14’W AND CONTINUES NORTHWEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN
WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI
SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR WALES TO 42 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN
TO 50 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT HOPE TO 25 NM WEST OF ICY CAPE TO 100 NM
WEST OF ICE CAPE AND CONTINUES INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS
OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL BRING CHANGING
WINDS TO THE ICE EDGE, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A POSSIBLE
SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE UPON. EXPECT A
BRIEF PAUSE IN THE ICE EDGE ADVANCE WHILE SOUTHWESTERLIES PUSH THE
ICE EDGE BACK NEAR POINT HOPE. HOWEVER, ICE GROWTH WILL RESUME LATE
IN THE WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN, MOVING THE ICE EDGE
SOUTHWARD 10-15 NM/DAY.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA BEGINS NEAR PLATINUM TO 59 34’N
164 34’W TO 61 11’N 167 31’W TO 64 1’N 165 18’W TO 65N 167 44’W TO
WALES. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA STARTS NEAR PLATINUM TO 45 NM EAST OF CAPE MENDENHALL TO 60 NM
NORTH OF CAPE MOHICAN TO 22 NM SOUTH OF NOME TO 25 NM SOUTHWEST OF
PORT CLARENCE TO WALES. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA WILL
PAUSE ICE GROWTH WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECT THE ALASKA COASTLINE
THROUGH NORTON SOUND. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
COMPRESS ICE AGAINST THE COAST WHILE MELTING MOST OF THE EXISTING
ICE IN THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL RETURN ICE GROWING
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA, HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS LOOKS
WARMER FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. NORTON SOUND THROUGH THE YUKON DELTA
HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE THE ICE EDGE BEGIN TO ADVANCE AGAIN LATE
WEEK ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 NM/DAY.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
THERE IS ICE GROWING IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK ARM, MAINLY ON
MUDFLATS THAT IS GETTING MOVED OFF WITH THE TIDES.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH. AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR WIDESPREAD ICE
GROWTH, BUT DIURNAL ICE ON THE MUDFLATS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.
LAWSON
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