685
FZAK80 PAFC 082200 AAA
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS...AAA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
100 PM AKDT MONDAY 8 DECEMBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 13 DECEMBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA BY MID-WEEK. A LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA ON THURSDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT
SEA ON FRIDAY. A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN SPREAD TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND THEN WINDS BECOME VARIABLE ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA. BY
SATURDAY, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AGAIN. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SO
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. EXISTING SHOREFAST ICE WILL REMAIN,
BUT FURTHER EXPANSION IS UNLIKELY AS WE HAVE NOT HAD A LONG-DURATION
COMPACTION EVENT TO REALLY ENCOURAGE ICE TO BE BOTTOM-FASTED.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE SHOREFAST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF ALASKA AS THE PACK GETS
COMPRESSED AGAINST THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN WESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO A LOW
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL AGAIN
ENCOURAGE SHOREFAST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
ALASKA.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
TO 60 26’N 170 3’W TO 61 28’N 169 49’W TO 61 59’N 173 29’W TO 63
41’N 173 37’W AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS
OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TO 80 NM WEST OF CAPE MOHICAN TO
105 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HOOPER BAY TO 115 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL TO 50
NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE
EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20
NM/DAY. ON THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP FROM ABOUT NUNIVAK
ISLAND NORTH WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA. BY SATURDAY, WINDS NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. ON THURSDAY, A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INHIBIT
THE ICE EDGE FROM ADVANCING MUCH.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYONEK TO 61 8’N
150 36’W TO NEAR POINT POSSESSION. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET
EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYONEK TO 16 NM NORTHEAST OF TYONEK TO NEAR POINT
POSSESSION. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE PREVENTED FREEZE-UP DESPITE AN AIR
MASS WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE UPPER-INLET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK FREEZE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORELANDS AND
ALONG THE KENAI COASTLINE. IN GENERAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, EXPECT SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR ICE GROWTH.
FENRICH
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