274
FZAK80 PAFC 202229
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
230 PM AKST FRIDAY 20 MARCH 2026
FORECAST VALID…WEDNESDAY 25 MARCH 2026
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…HIGH.
SYNOPSIS…LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BREAK-OFF OF SHOREFAST ICE IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
PACK ICE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT POLYNYAS OPEN UP ALONG NORTH-FACING COASTLINES
SHOREFAST ICE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF ANYWHERE ALONG THE ALASKA
COASTLINE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ760-BRISTOL BAY GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ766-PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEARSHORE WATERS-
PKZ767-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ756-PORT HEIDEN TO NELSON LAGOON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ757-PORT HEIDEN TO NELSON LAGOON 15 TO 60 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ758-NELSON LAGOON TO CAPE SARICHEF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ759-NELSON LAGOON TO CAPE SARICHEF 15 TO 70 NM-
PKZ414-BERING SEA EAST OF 171W-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 54 54'N 164
31'W TO 56 41'N 172 26'W TO 60 46'N 179 45'W AND CONTINUES IN
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM 25 NM NORTHEAST OF CAPE SARICHEF 88 NM WEST OF
SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TO 286 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AND CONTINUES
INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN STRIPS OF ICE.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. ICE COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS NEARING
RECORD LEVELS AS ARCTIC AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE IN THIS AREA TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD 10-15 NM/DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN SLOWING TO 5-10 NM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE ICE EDGE IS ENCROACHING ON WARMER WATERS (~2C) AS NORTH WINDS
STRIP ICE AWAY FROM THE MAIN PACK. THESE STRIPS ARE MELTING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AND MAY AFFECT HOW FAST THE EDGE PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD.
COLDER AIR WILL HELP CONDITION THESE TEMPERATURES LOWER THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE PACK ICE MOVE SOUTHWARD IT WILL SPREAD OUT AND MELT
INTO MARGINAL STRIPS OF ICE.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ730-WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
PKZ738-SHELIKOF STRAIT
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
PZK741-KACHEMAK BAY-
PKZ742-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM ANCHOR POINT TO
AUGUSTINE VOLCANO. THERE IS ALSO ICE IN KAMISHAK BAY FLOWING INTO
SHELIKOF STRAIT.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOK
INLET TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. A WARMER AIR MASS ON SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING SOME BREAKS TO THE ICE PACK, MELTING SOME OF THE NEW
ICE IN THE INLET. COLDER AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEK, BUT AS WE PASS
EQUINOX, NEW ICE WILL BECOME HARDER AND HARDER TO GROW.
PLEASE NOTE THAT ICE MOTION IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
TIDES.
LAWSON
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