467
FZAK80 PAFC 210023
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
325 PM AKST WEDNESDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2024
FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 25 NOVEMBER 2024
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE
SYNOPSIS...A LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA ONTO THE MAINLAND WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OCCUPIES THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. ON SATURDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THEN WEAKENS AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA INTO
MONDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
WINDS WILL LAY DOWN ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR A SEA ICE GROWTH
REGIME TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA. EXPECT ICE TO CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
SHOREFAST ICE TO CONTINUE TO GROW AWAY FROM THE COAST. WEAK WESTERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT THE GENERAL EAST TO WEST MOTION OF THE
BEAUFORT GYRE AND MAKE FOR A GENERALLY STATIONARY ICE PACK.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809- MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
IN THE CHUKCHI SEA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR WALES TO 67
1’N 164 56’W TO 69 17’N 166 53’W TO 69 32’N 168 42’W TO 68 5’N 167
26’W TO 66 2’N 169 33’W. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM
NEAR WALES TO 25 NM WEST OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO 25 NM NORTHWEST OF
CAPE LISBURNE TO 65 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE TO 20 NM SOUTHWEST
OF POINT HOPE TO 20 NM NORTHWEST OF DIOMEDE. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN
WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS
WEEK, THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. EASTERLY WINDS WILL OPEN POLYNYA ALONG THE WEST FACING
COASTLINES OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND PUSH ICE TO THE WEST 20-30 NM. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL INHIBIT ICE GROWTH THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
LIKELY MELT SOME OF THE NEWLY FORMED ICE IN THE LAST WEEK. ONCE THAT
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PASSES, THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD
OF ICE GROWTH.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
IN THE BERING SEA, THE ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TO
61N 166 30’W TO 64 8’N 164 33’W TO NEAR WALES. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN
WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA
EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TO 40 NM SOUTH OF HOOPER BAY TO 30
NM EAST OF NOME TO NEAR WALES. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)... FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND A
WARMER AIR MASS WILL PAUSE ICE GROWTH FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA MIGHT
FOSTER SOME NEW ICE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING ONSHORE WINDS TO THE KUSKOKWIM AND
YUKON DELTA AND LIKELY MELT SOME OF THE EXISTING ICE.
SCHRECK/LAWSON
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