076
FZAK80 PAFC 132315
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
315 PM AKDT MONDAY 13 OCTOBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 18 OCTOBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SYNOPSIS...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN HIGH ARCTIC AND NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE HIGH ARCTIC
LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND LATER WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC, BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS, AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH
SATURDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 140 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 60 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 20 TO 45 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BEAUFORT SEA EXTENDS FROM 72 3’N 154 54’W
TO 70 20’N 140 52’W AND CONTINUES EAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS. THE ICE
EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BEAUFORT
SEA EXTENDS FROM 55 NM NORTH OF IKIAK TO 38 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT AND CONTINUES EAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN
WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. MOST OF THE DEVELOPED ICE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE COAST HAS MELTED IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL PAUSE ICE GROWTH
CONDITIONS AND WILL CAUSE THE ICE EDGE TO RETREAT APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 20 NM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF ADVANCE OF THE ICE EDGE (5 TO 10 NM)
ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SEA ICE GROWTH ONCE AGAIN.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA EXTENDS FROM 72 3’N 154 54’W TO
169 51’N 72 52’N AND CONTINUES WEST INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE
EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI
SEA EXTENDS FROM 55 NM NORTH OF IKIAK TO 225 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT
FRANKLIN AND CONTINUES WEST INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS
OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. OVER THE MAIN ICE PACK, MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL RETREAT THE ICE EDGE 10 TO 20 NM TO THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL MOVE SEA ICE WITHIN THE MAIN PACK TO
THE WEST APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 NM PER DAY.
FENRICH
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