084
FZAK80 PAFC 202038
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
1140 PM AKST FRIDAY 20 DECEMBER 2024
FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 25 DECEMBER 2024
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW COMPLEX WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE BERING OR NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BEAUFORT SEA ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY NORTHERLY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT GENERALLY WESTERLY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP SEA ICE ALONG
THE COAST STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER SO DRIFT EXTENT WILL BE MINIMAL. OVERALL, THICKENING ICE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809- MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SEA ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO PREVIOUSLY MELTED AREAS, AND OVERALL
THICKENING ICE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEW POLYNYAS WILL FORM OFF SOUTH-FACING COASTS SUCH AS POINT HOPE
AND KIVALINA. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI TO FILL WITH PACK ICE BY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEW GROWTH AND THE PACK ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ760-BRISTOL BAY GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PEIRCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
IN THE BERING SEA, THE ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR QUINHAGAK TO 60
15’N 167 58’W TO 61 54’N 169 59’W TO 63 15’N 168 2’W TO 65 21’N 169
40’W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS
OPEN WATER. THERE IS ALSO NEW ICE GROWING AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
QUINHAGAK TO 15 NM WEST OF CAPE MOHICAN TO 110 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY
TO 90 NM WEST OF THE YUKON DELTA TO 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF WALES AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWEST INTO RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
THERE IS ALSO NEW ICE GROWING AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEA ICE GROWTH WILL BE MODEST SOUTH OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT MORE EXPANSIVE NORTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN NORTON SOUND AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. ANY
SHOREFAST ICE OFF WEST AND SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES IN THIS AREA WILL
BE VULNERABLE TO BREAKING OFF AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY, AND THEN A FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYONEK TO NEAR NIKISKI. THE ICE
EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH. WINDS ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION WILL BE PERSISTENT OUT OF
THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, NEW
SEA ICE GROWTH WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FENRICH
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