815
FZAK80 PAFC 072314
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM 300 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY 7 JANUARY 2026
FORECAST VALID…MONDAY 12 JANUARY 2026
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…MODERATE TO HIGH.
SYNOPSIS…HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTH SLOPE, BEAUFORT SEA,
CHUKCHI SEA, AND BERING STRAIT REGION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SIT OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE AND
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY, AND ONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER WILL REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY, AND THEN AGAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON
SATURDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ814-CAPE
HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO
DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT
FROM 45 TO 80 NM-PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80
NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, THEN NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL
COMPACT AND COMPRESS THE PACK ICE AGAINST THE EXISTING SHOREFAST
ICE, POSSIBLY ENCOURAGING MORE SHOREFAST DEVELOPMENT. AREAS OF
ESTABLISHED SHOREFAST ICE SHOULD REMAIN INTACT WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. PACK ICE MAY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5
NM/DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 NM/DAY OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO
MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE
KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON
OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ813-POINT
FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER
THAN 10 NM-PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-PKZ857-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT
TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE
HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOREFAST ICE ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO BREAK-OFF, ESPECIALLY FROM POINT HOPE THROUGH CAPE
KRUSENSTERN. A LARGE POLYNYA WILL FORM IN THAT SAME AREA, WHICH WILL
FREEZE FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE SHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ICE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD 10-20 NM/DAY IN THIS REGION. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
COMPRESS ICE AGAINST THE WALES TO ESPENBERG COASTLINE AND PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOREFAST ICE IN THE AREA.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ765-NORTH
AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO
15 NM-PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ803-KWIKPAK
PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES
POINT OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO
KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15
NM-PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ760-BRISTOL BAY GREATER THAN 15 NM-PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT
HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE
CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15
TO 80 NM-PKZ767-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN
15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 56 34’N 159
44’W TO 57 22’N 158 49’W TO 58 20’N 168 9’W TO 59 27’N 172 34’W TO
60 30’N 171 54’W TO 61 55’N 175 15’W TO 63 17’N 173 8’W AND
CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MARGINAL STRIPS OF
ICE.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN TO 40 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PILOT POINT TO 115 NM SOUTH OF CAPE MOHICAN TO 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO 25 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO
150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL TO 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
GAMBELL AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS
MARGINAL STRIPS OF ICE.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. ALONG THE ICE EDGE, MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THROUGH BRISTOL BAY.
CURRENTLY, THE ICE EDGE IS RUNNING UP AGAINST WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. EXPECT THE WINDS TO STRIP
ICE AWAY FROM THE MAIN PACK INTO A ZONE OF LOW CONCENTRATION
MARGINAL ICE STRIPS. THESE STRIPS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST IN THE WARMER
WATERS AND MELT. HOWEVER, A DRY AND COLD CONTINENTAL INTERIOR AIR
MASS FLOWING OFFSHORE WILL AID IN COOLING THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT THE MAIN ICE EDGE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD 10-20
NM/DAY.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-PZK741-KACHEMAK BAY PKZ742-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHOR POINT TO
AUGUSTINE VOLCANO. THERE IS ALSO ICE FROM THE NORTHERN HOMER SPIT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF KACHEMAK BAY.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN TURN SOUTHERLY UP THE INLET ON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING
BACK LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DURING THE PERIODS
OF NORTHERLY WINDS, THE ICE EDGE COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD AROUND 5
NM/DAY, HOWEVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN COOK
INLET WILL MELT ANY ICE SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE ICE TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SAME AMOUNT. HOWEVER, TIDES WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN ICE MOTION FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE NOTE THAT ICE MOTION IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
TIDES.
LAWSON
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