421
NGAK88 PAFC 302155
HCMAFC
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE
ALASKA-PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
108 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2025
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CONTACT:
MICHELLE MCAULEY 907-266-5161 907-350-9219 (CELL PHONE AFTER 5 PM)
LOCATION/KNOWN FLOOD AREA (KFA)*: KENAI RIVER
PRODUCT TYPE: SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
EXPIRATION TIME: NOV 6 1200Z
PRIMARY CAUSE:
GDL
BASIS:
THE SKILAK GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS BELIEVED TO BE RELEASING BASED ON
OBSERVED STAGE INCREASES DOWNRIVER. WITHOUT RECENT AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO BE 100% SURE THAT RECENT RISES AREN'T DUE TO
PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, BASED ON RECENT PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES A GDL
IS THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE.
IMPACTS:
RESIDENTS ALONG THE KENAI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF SKILAK LAKE SHOULD BE AWARE OF
RISING WATER THROUGH MONDAY. THE KENAI RIVER BELOW SKILAK LAKE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ACTION STAGE (12 FT ABOVE GAGE DATUM) LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (11/01)
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (11/02) AND CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE (13 FT)
MONDAY MORNING (11/03). THE KENAI RIVER AT KENAI KEYS WILL CREST IN ACTION
STAGE (10 FT) MONDAY. THE KENAI RIVER AT SOLDOTNA WILL CREST BELOW ACTION
STAGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS RELEASE OF THE LAKE
OCCURRED SEPTEMBER 2023 AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
LAKE WAS AT LEVELS COMPARABLE TO THOSE OBSERVED PRIOR TO THE 2023 RELEASE.
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*AFC HAS THE FOLLOWING KNOWN FLOOD AREAS (KFAS):
RIVERS/LAKES:GLACIER DAMMED LAKES:ICE JAMS:
ANCHOR RIVERBEARANCHOR RIVER
ANCHORAGE BOWLKENNICOTTKENAI RIVER
CORDOVASKILAKSHIP CREEK
E DENALI HWYSNOWWILLOW CREEK
KENAI RIVERVALDEZUPPER KUSKOKWIM
KODIAKMIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
MATANUSKA RIVERLOWER KUSKOKWIM
PARKS HWY
RICHARDSON HWY
SEWARD
TALKEETNA RIVER
VALDEZ
W DENALI HWY
YENTNA/SKWENTNA
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