495
FNUS74 KBMX 292046
FWSBMX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKJACK ROAD...ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 CST ON NOVEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEAR THE BURN SITE INCLUDE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 50-60% RANGE. WINDS ARE SUSTAINED 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~25 MPH. MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING THOUGH WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY.
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUAL LEAD
TO A SOAKING LATER TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....39.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (CST) 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........85 89
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............60 60
LAL.............2 2
TEMP............69 66
RH..............68 78
20 FT WIND......S 8 SE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.19 21
20 FT WIND DIR..160 150
MIX HGT (FT)....2100 1700
TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 22
DISPERSION IDX..39 38
LVORI...........3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
CWR.................80 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT LATE IN THE
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400, THEN 4.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 14 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
DISPERSION INDEX....37 DECREASING TO 14.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........91 94 96 100 100 94
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
CWR.............80 80 90 100 100 90
LAL.............3 3 3 4 4 4
TEMP............65 64 64 64 63 62
RH..............84 90 90 90 93 93
20 FT WIND......SE 8 S 9 S 10 S 10 SW 9 SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.22 23 24 25 22 18
20 FT WIND DIR..150 160 170 180 210 240
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1300 1400 1400 1100 900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 23 S 23 S 23 S 17 SW 14
DISPERSION IDX..37 35 36 26 15 12
LVORI...........4 4 4 5 5 5
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 16
TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....17 INCREASING TO 54 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 59 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 47 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 33.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........86 41 13 2 1 2
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............30 30 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............60 58 55 55 54 50
RH..............90 77 69 55 46 48
20 FT WIND......NW 8 NW 10 N 10 N 8 N 8 N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 19 18 16 14
20 FT WIND DIR..300 330 340 340 350 350
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1500 1900 2300 2800 2300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 NW 18 N 20 N 20 N 20 N 17
DISPERSION IDX..13 21 13 53 60 47
LVORI...........5 5 3 1 1 1
FORECASTER...SIZEMORE
REQUESTED BY...SHANE WOODHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2221943.0/BMX
.DELDT 11/29/22
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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