739
FNUS74 KBMX 220239
FWSBMX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2200 CDT ON JUNE 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE WILDFIRE LOCATION OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT, AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW DISPERSION AND
MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER 3
AM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
EVENING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO
7 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............7.
TIME (CDT) 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........42 39 38 55
WEATHER COV.....S CHC PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 10 10 10
LAL.............2 M M 1
TEMP............72 70 69 69
RH..............89 93 94 96
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 5
MIX HGT (FT)....100 BLW100 400 800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2 SW 5 SW 7 W 7
DISPERSION IDX..0 2 3 3
LVORI...........7 7 6 8
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 AFTER 0700 UNTIL 1100. 4 AFTER 1300 UNTIL
1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 15
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 73 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 41.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........42 55 42 61 67 74
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC S CHC SCTTRD NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC SCTTRD NUMRUS
CWR.............10 10 20 20 50 60
LAL.............M M 1 M M 4
TEMP............68 73 79 83 86 87
RH..............97 89 76 66 61 60
20 FT WIND......SW 2 W 2 SW 2 SW 3 SW 3 SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 8 10 11 12
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 2600 2900 3800 4700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 7 W 13 SW 12 SW 12 SW 15
DISPERSION IDX..2 3 6 41 53 44
LVORI...........8 5 3 3 1 1
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1900 UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....21 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........66 65 64 65 64 62
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NUMRUS S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
CWR.............60 30 30 30 40 40
LAL.............M M 2 M M 2
TEMP............82 76 73 72 71 69
RH..............68 83 91 92 96 99
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 3 S 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 11 10 12
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 300 200 100 200 300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 7 S 6 S 6 S 7 SW 9
DISPERSION IDX..21 0 0 4 5 6
LVORI...........1 5 7 7 7 8
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 AFTER 0700 UNTIL 1100. 3 AFTER 1300 UNTIL
1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO
23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....14 INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 71 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 93 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 79
DECREASING TO 60 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........62 66 66 66 75 78
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............40 50 50 50 80 80
LAL.............M M 2 M M 3
TEMP............69 75 81 83 84 84
RH..............100 88 76 69 67 65
20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 16 14 14 14
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 3500 6000 7200 6400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 16 W 23 W 22 W 20 W 17
DISPERSION IDX..10 18 31 72 94 79
LVORI...........8 4 3 3 1 3
FORECASTER...GRANTHAM
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2008371.0/BMX
.DELDT 06/21/20
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.25
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