264
FNUS74 KBMX 150006
FWSBMX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG OAK A...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
BUSY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BIG OAK SITE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 80%+ PROB OF RAIN AFTER 3 AM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6 AM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SE INITIALLY WITH GUSTS OVER 20MPH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY TOMORROW
EVENING. GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 12 OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........85 86 92 89 86 80 81 87 86 92 95 97
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 80 80 80
TEMP............59 58 56 54 53 53 53 52 52 51 51 50
RH..............40 41 43 47 48 48 49 54 59 63 71 80
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND DIR..130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 140 140 140
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.11 13 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 18 20 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 13 14 13 13 12 13 14 16 15 16
DISPERSION IDX..0 0 0 3 4 1 10 11 12 14 13 14
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8
TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....19 INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 23 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 7 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........99 99 99 99 98 98 96 95 94 97 94 95
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............100 100 100 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............51 50 51 54 56 57 60 62 62 63 62 60
RH..............86 96 100 100 98 96 90 81 84 78 81 90
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SW W NW
20 FT WIND DIR..140 140 140 150 150 160 170 180 190 200 270 320
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 14 12 11 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 23 21 20 21 21 17 15 15 12 8 8
DISPERSION IDX..15 21 23 22 23 37 31 26 27 18 11 2
LVORI...........5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8 TO 17
MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 17 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING TO 23 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING
TO 11 OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............7.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........84 86 83 91 82 75 80 75 78 76 73 66
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............30 30 30 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............58 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46
RH..............93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND DIR..340 340 350 350 350 350 000 000 000 000 000 010
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 12 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 15 14
DISPERSION IDX..0 7 13 20 21 23 12 12 12 11 10 9
LVORI...........8 8 8 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 10 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57 50 45 40 33 26 19 15 10 6 5 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............45 47 49 51 55 59 63 65 66 68 65 62
RH..............100 96 93 86 77 67 60 55 52 48 54 60
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND DIR..010 020 030 040 050 080 090 100 130 140 140 140
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.9 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5
DISPERSION IDX..8 8 7 4 4 14 18 20 23 25 14 6
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2
FORECASTER...OWEN
REQUESTED BY...TROY MCFARLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602738.1/BMX
.DELDT 02/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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