495  
FNUS74 KBMX 292046  
FWSBMX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKJACK ROAD...ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
246 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 CST ON NOVEMBER 29.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEAR THE BURN SITE INCLUDE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY  
WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 50-60% RANGE. WINDS ARE SUSTAINED 10-15  
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~25 MPH. MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY  
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING THOUGH WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY.  
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUAL LEAD  
TO A SOAKING LATER TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 22 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....39.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (CST) 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........85 89  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE  
CWR.............60 60  
LAL.............2 2  
TEMP............69 66  
RH..............68 78  
20 FT WIND......S 8 SE 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.19 21  
20 FT WIND DIR..160 150  
MIX HGT (FT)....2100 1700  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 22  
DISPERSION IDX..39 38  
LVORI...........3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
CWR.................80 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT  
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400, THEN 4.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 14 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
DISPERSION INDEX....37 DECREASING TO 14.  
LVORI...............5.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........91 94 96 100 100 94  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
CWR.............80 80 90 100 100 90  
LAL.............3 3 3 4 4 4  
TEMP............65 64 64 64 63 62  
RH..............84 90 90 90 93 93  
20 FT WIND......SE 8 S 9 S 10 S 10 SW 9 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.22 23 24 25 22 18  
20 FT WIND DIR..150 160 170 180 210 240  
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1300 1400 1400 1100 900  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 23 S 23 S 23 S 17 SW 14  
DISPERSION IDX..37 35 36 26 15 12  
LVORI...........4 4 4 5 5 5  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 16  
TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....17 INCREASING TO 54 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 59 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 47 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 33.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........86 41 13 2 1 2  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............30 30 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............60 58 55 55 54 50  
RH..............90 77 69 55 46 48  
20 FT WIND......NW 8 NW 10 N 10 N 8 N 8 N 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 19 18 16 14  
20 FT WIND DIR..300 330 340 340 350 350  
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1500 1900 2300 2800 2300  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 NW 18 N 20 N 20 N 20 N 17  
DISPERSION IDX..13 21 13 53 60 47  
LVORI...........5 5 3 1 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...SIZEMORE  
REQUESTED BY...SHANE WOODHAM  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2221943.0/BMX  
.DELDT 11/29/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
 
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