739  
FNUS74 KBMX 220239  
FWSBMX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE CREEK...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2200 CDT ON JUNE 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE WILDFIRE LOCATION OVERNIGHT.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD  
BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT, AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DUE TO  
RECENT RAINFALL. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW DISPERSION AND  
MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER 3  
AM.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
EVENING.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0500.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO  
7 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
DISPERSION INDEX....2.  
LVORI...............7.  
 
TIME (CDT) 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........42 39 38 55  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC PATCHY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE FOG  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 10 10 10  
LAL.............2 M M 1  
TEMP............72 70 69 69  
RH..............89 93 94 96  
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 BLW100 400 800  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2 SW 5 SW 7 W 7  
DISPERSION IDX..0 2 3 3  
LVORI...........7 7 6 8  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 AFTER 0700 UNTIL 1100. 4 AFTER 1300 UNTIL  
1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND  
5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 15  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 73 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 41.  
LVORI...............5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........42 55 42 61 67 74  
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC S CHC SCTTRD NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC SCTTRD NUMRUS  
CWR.............10 10 20 20 50 60  
LAL.............M M 1 M M 4  
TEMP............68 73 79 83 86 87  
RH..............97 89 76 66 61 60  
20 FT WIND......SW 2 W 2 SW 2 SW 3 SW 3 SW 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 8 10 11 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 2600 2900 3800 4700  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 7 W 13 SW 12 SW 12 SW 15  
DISPERSION IDX..2 3 6 41 53 44  
LVORI...........8 5 3 3 1 1  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE  
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT  
OVERNIGHT.  
LAL.................2 AFTER 1900 UNTIL 0500.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6  
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....21 DECREASING TO 4.  
LVORI...............5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........66 65 64 65 64 62  
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NUMRUS S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
CWR.............60 30 30 30 40 40  
LAL.............M M 2 M M 2  
TEMP............82 76 73 72 71 69  
RH..............68 83 91 92 96 99  
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 3 S 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 11 10 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 300 200 100 200 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 7 S 6 S 6 S 7 SW 9  
DISPERSION IDX..21 0 0 4 5 6  
LVORI...........1 5 7 7 7 8  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2 AFTER 0700 UNTIL 1100. 3 AFTER 1300 UNTIL  
1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO  
23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
DISPERSION INDEX....14 INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 71 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 93 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 79  
DECREASING TO 60 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........62 66 66 66 75 78  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CWR.............40 50 50 50 80 80  
LAL.............M M 2 M M 3  
TEMP............69 75 81 83 84 84  
RH..............100 88 76 69 67 65  
20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 16 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 3500 6000 7200 6400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 16 W 23 W 22 W 20 W 17  
DISPERSION IDX..10 18 31 72 94 79  
LVORI...........8 4 3 3 1 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...GRANTHAM  
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2008371.0/BMX  
.DELDT 06/21/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.25  
 
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