138
FXUS64 KHUN 220028
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
728 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TOMORROW WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE SEEN LIFTING NORTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
IN CENTRAL AL AND MS. THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, LOW CLOUDS
AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF A DECAYING MCS THAT
LOOKS TO ENTER OUR AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE MORNING STORM
THREAT IS DISCUSSED BELOW, JUST MAKE SURE TO BRING A RAIN COAT
WHEN HEADING OUT THE DOOR TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
2:30 PM UPDATE: SPC HAS UPGRADED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO
SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
PROMPTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM ABOUT 2-8
PM. LIKEWISE, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A LOW TORNADO THREAT DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF SOME FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO
MAY OCCUR, WE FEEL THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW FOR
BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
ALLOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY,
THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES ON MONDAY. EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN MCS
WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR NW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE.
THROUGH THE MORNING THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE MAIN MCS LOOKS TO ENTER NW AL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AND MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY (+1000 J/KG) WILL
BE PRESENT. PAIRED WITH AN OKAY AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR (25-35 KTS),
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SPC WITH THE WHOLE AREA BEING UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/5).
UNFORTUNATELY OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND PWATS, MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN A CONCERN.
LOW CORFIDI UP SHEAR VALUES RAISE CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH, WPC HAS PLACE
MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE MCS LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
PUSH IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR, YET WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS, LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST, ALL
STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
MAIN CONCERN. WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM FORECAST, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO GET WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY), OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A LIGHT
(10-20 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FEATURING PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8" AND CAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH OUR REGION LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DRYING PROFILES, WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH WITH A LINGERING FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS LIKELY TO
LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NON-ZERO). HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE L-M
80S INTO THE M-U 80S BY SATURDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE FROM THE M-U
60S INTO THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, AS A BKN-OVC LAYER OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH A 5-10 KT SW WIND IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED (AND REDUCE CONCERN FOR BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT), A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS IL/IN/OH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FORMATION OF AN INITIALLY
SCATTERED LAYER OF STRATOCU BY 6Z, WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A
BROKEN LAYER OF MVFR STRATUS BY 10Z (THAT WILL LARGELY REMAIN
INTACT THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD). CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE LOW-LEVEL
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MCS. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SCATTERED AND WE WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST ATTM. GREATER IMPACTS FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY COME
FROM 10-16Z, AT WHICH POINT MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HVY RAIN AND
AWWS FOR LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35-45 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE MORNING MCS SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE REGION BY EARLY-MID AFTN, CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND
ADDITIONAL PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF
THE TAFS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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