856
FXUS64 KHUN 280810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSING IN BUT A BANK OF CLOUD COVER HAS STREAMED
IN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS FROM BECOMING A WIDESPREAD DENSE HAZARD. IT WILL ALSO
KEEP THE LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHEN YOU WAKE UP, SO GRAB THAT
LIGHT JACKET ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BUS STOP AND YOUR MORNING COMMUTE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REFUSES TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
YET ANOTHER DAY AND ITS PLACEMENT WILL PROVIDE ESE WINDS. MIN RH
VALUES WILL NOT BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT WILL STILL BE LOW,
30-40%, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AL. SO USE
CAUTION WHEN BURNING OUTDOORS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH THE CLOUD DECK EASTWARD, REVEALING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MIDDAY, AND WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 70S IN NE AL TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM, BUT THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF WHILE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY
TROPICAL STORM VANCE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND INTO THE MIDWEST.
WE WON'T REALLY BEGIN TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE CHANGES UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF INCREASES OVER
THE AREA AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN STORY
FOR US IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
RISING TO THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY WHEN
THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER THE TN VALLEY. WHILE WE WON'T BREAK
RECORD TEMPS (87 AT HSV AND 86 AT MSL), HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, A QUICK PATTERN TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE, WITH
THE 5H AND 8H RIDGES SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE OZARKS AND MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE GREATEST UVVS WILL BE ON SUNDAY FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH OUR
GREATEST SHOWER CHANCES. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EXISTS AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. QPF OF 0.4-1.3 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST OF I-65 LOOKS OK FOR NOW. WITH THE
SURFACE/WEDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., A COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED. CHANCES WANE LATE SUNDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LOOK FAVORABLE GIVEN SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVES. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
MINOR UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACES AND SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BUT THE DEEPENING AND
SLOW NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BECOMING SMALLER,
WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT
BOTH TERMINALS. BEYOND THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JMS
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