610
FXUS64 KHUN 051144
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL TODAY.
- A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WE ARE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH SOME FOG THAT HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY BUT HAS NOT BECOME DENSE (0.25 MI). PLEASE TAKE IT
SLOW WHEN DRIVING THIS MORNING UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
BEYOND THE FOG, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND SPC HAS PLACED
US IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK (RISK LEVEL 1/5). SHORTWAVES COMING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH TODAY,
EXTENDING IT INTO THE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MO
TO FAR NORTHERN TX COULD MAKE IT IN HERE AT WELL TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE, PWATS ~2",
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE ~2,000 J/KG. WITH THIS,
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS (DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL), HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL BE A TAD "COOLER" TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE 99-105 DEGREES AND
WE'RE IN A LEVEL 2 HEAT RISK (MODERATE). EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT
A HEAT PRODUCT IN EFFECT, YOU STILL NEED TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN OPPRESSIVE, AND THIS IS NOT
PROVIDING ANY TRUE RELIEF.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO CHANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN A WET AND LESS OPPRESSIVELY HOT PERIOD. A
TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
OZARKS AND RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, SLOWLY DEEPENING INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
ON SUNDAY, STRONGER INSTABILITY REDEVELOP OWING TO A MARGINAL
RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE REGION (MAINLY FROM DOWNBURSTS
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL). THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AGAIN WITH SOME FORCING ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE RISK MAY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. BY
TUESDAY, THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHIFTING THE WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH PWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE NEW NBM
PROVIDES, BUT I FORESEE THE POP TREND DROPPING FOR TUESDAY WITH
TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGESTING
LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER TREND WE NEED TO MONITOR
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A WARM AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, KEEPING THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2 INCHES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IF SLOW MOVING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FOG LINGERING AROUND THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR
VIS, AND WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-24Z, CREATING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR UNTIL FOG TONIGHT THAT COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09-12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...JMS
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