204
FXUS64 KHUN 031114
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY, DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TODAY (MAINLY FROM MID-DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS).
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-60% FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: HEAT WAVE PERSISTS AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH 105-109 DEGREES, STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE RIDGE WILL EVERY SO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SCOOT EASTWARD,
CENTERING MORE OVER VA/NC/SC TODAY. THE HEAT WAVE WILL PERSIST
THOUGH, AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE 105-109 DEGREES. WITH THIS, A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM SATURDAY.
AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL SEEM LIKE A RINSE AND
REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS. WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL OUTLOOK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM SPC FOR THE CHANCE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. SOME CONVECTION COULD
START LATER ON THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A DISTURBANCE SLIDING NW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOW/MEDIUM
CHANCES OF 30-60% BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1-8PM BUT AS LATE AS 10PM. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
WINDS ~55-65 MPH, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPE
OF 3-4,500 J/KG, AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PWATS
WILL STILL BE JUST SHY OF 2", 1.6-1.9", AND WITH STEERING FLOW
WEAKENING DOWN TO JUST 10KTS, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CREATING LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS, POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING.
DON'T FORGET: NEVER LEAVE PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES, CHECK IN ON
YOUNG CHILDREN/ELDERLY/VULNERABLE, STAY HYDRATED WITH WATER, SEEK
SHADE AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN OUTSIDE. YOU CAN FIND MORE
HEAT SAFETY TIPS ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND LOCAL WEBSITE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY LOCATED ACROSS VA/NC)
WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES (AND GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY). THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL MOISTEN THE MID-LEVELS AND PROVIDE WEAKER
LAPSE RATES/CAPE (AND A LOWER RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS)
AS WE PROGRESS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2-4Z (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS), LEAVING ANOTHER MOIST BUT RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS IN
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING (FEATURING LOWS IN THE L-M 70S). THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WEAK CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN, AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY MAY BE IMPACTED BY EARLY
DAY CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN IL. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE AN
IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, THEN AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CAPE WILL
TEND TO REDUCE THE RISK FOR HIGHER- CALIBER DOWNBURST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING, WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO ~2"
LEADING TO A GROWING CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN
IN THE L-M 90S THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HEAT INDEX PREDICTED
TO ONLY REACH THE 100-104F RANGE ON SUNDAY, WE WILL NOT PLAN TO
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST) WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH OUR
CWFA LIKELY TO BE LOCATED BENEATH THE NORTHWESTERN RIM OF THE
RIDGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS AN INITIALLY WEAK CUTOFF LOW ACROSS MO/AR
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT IN THIS REGIME (PWAT VALUES AROUND
2"), SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION. THUS, WE WILL
MAINTAIN MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, DECREASING TO 20-40% AT NIGHT. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (TO OUR NORTH) MAY LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE MAIN STORM IMPACTS AT THIS POINT
APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE U80S-L90S WITH LOWS IN THE L-M 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT WILL
BE HARD TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN THE TERMINALS WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE A PROB30 20-02Z WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG, BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR
NOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS
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