891
FXUS64 KHUN 181729
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA
THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD TEND TO MIX OUT WITH TIME. DEW POINTS IN
THESE AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. FURTHER
EAST, DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH WINDS GUSTS AT 25-30 MPH AT TIMES, MAINLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE GULF COAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWER CLOUDS MAY ENTER
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST TO LOWER
60S WEST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE SURFACE AND 8H HIGHS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT 5H TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. OTHER THAN SOME LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ON THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, AND
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BROAD MID/UPR RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OVER THE PERIOD, BUT THE TENDENCY FOR LONG WAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST CONUS VS THE WEST. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL RIDGE ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE TO OUR WEST
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. AN ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WITH OVERALL LIFT AND
RESULTING RAINFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE LIKEWISE WEAKENING.
NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA, BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS EVENT, SO CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY, BUT THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT,
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GREATER
PORTION OF THE MODEL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY
GRADUALLY, ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY LINGER IN THE
REGION. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT QUICKLY TRANSITING UPR WAVES
MAY BRING OTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT DUE TO THE FEATURES INVOLVED AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE BROAD SCALE BOUNDARY, POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE DAY BUT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL SLACK WITH SUNSET, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. GUSTS
WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE LATE MORNING. A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT CIGS
MVFR FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR FURTHER REDUCTION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...JMS
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