760  
FXUS64 KHUN 291055  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
455 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
ONGOING HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE  
WEST AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY. WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
INFLUENCES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT  
LIVED AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE SHORT-TERM SECTION  
BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FORCES HIGH  
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)  
TO RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THESE CHANCES ARE  
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, ACCOMPANIED  
BY INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS GUSTS REACH 15-20 MPH (WITH  
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION). HIGH CHANCES  
OF SHOWERS (90-100%) ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS  
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS  
THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CONVECTION  
POSSIBLE WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM.  
SHOWER/POSSIBLE STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS  
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A POTENTIAL 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO RIVER RISES ARE  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF  
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE SUCH AS ROADWAYS.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S  
AND LOWS IN THE 40S-50S. CLOUD COVER MAY SUBSIDE FOR A BRIEF  
AMOUNT OF TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME OF THE DAY SUNDAY FOR  
THOSE WHO ARE MISSING THE SUN BY THEN. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BE  
SHORT- LIVED AS CLOUDS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW CHANCES OF  
RAIN RETURN (20%). MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG-TERM SECTION BELOW!  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
FORMING THROUGH THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING  
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT OF THIS, A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD,  
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THERE  
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW  
AS WELL AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE, STUCK WITH  
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES WHICH RESULTED IN MEDIUM CHANCES  
OF RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING  
LIGHTNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV TODAY WITH  
LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CEILINGS. LATE TONIGHT, A LOW  
CHANCE (30%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA, CAUSING A  
POTENTIAL FOR DECREASED VISIBILITIES AND LOWERED CEILINGS. BY THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS, HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN (90-100%) AND SUBSEQUENT  
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HC  
SHORT TERM....HC  
LONG TERM....HC  
AVIATION...HC  
 
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