045
FXUS64 KHUN 181526
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1026 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SOME LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON
RADAR AT PRESENT. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S, IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH, THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. OVERALL, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING ABNORMALLY COOL
WEATHER TODAY (AROUND 23-24 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES) CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME
AS WELL AND, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NIGHT IS THEN ANTICIPATED, WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION, ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL (JACKSON
AND DEKALB COUNTIES), IN CASE A SHORT-FUSED FROST ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THINKING THAT IT MAY STILL BE A
BIT TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY, HELPING WITH THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURE VALUES GRADUALLY RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS
ACTUALLY 2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT, DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
THURSDAY, THAT THE AREA SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN DUE
TO THE WEAK FORCING AND DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL
PERSIST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH
ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL NORM. ALTHOUGH, IT
WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE HUMID, WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO
THE 50S. THIS MAY HELP OUR "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES BE A TOUCH
WARMER, ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
TURN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 80S IN
SOME SPOTS SUNDAY) UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, NO
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARCH 22ND ARE 88 DEGREES AT HSV AND 89 DEGREES AT
MSL, BOTH SET IN 1907. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF. A SURGE
OF MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE BROKEN TO AT
TIMES OVERCAST CONDITION INTO THE EVENING, WITH CLOUD BASES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE MVFR MINIMUMS (3000' AGL). LIGHT SE WINDS
EARLY WILL BECOME SW 5-10KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SE IN THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TG/26
SHORT TERM....TG/26
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
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