815
FXUS64 KHUN 221922
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
122 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 122 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- MODERATE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WINTER STORM FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAUDERDALE, COLBERT
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NW AL FROM 12 AM SATURDAY - 6 PM
SUNDAY, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND 5F.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH (MARKING THE CENTER OF A
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY, MAINTAINING LIGHT-
MODERATE NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MILD COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO NORTHERN GA. ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE TROUGH (WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT) WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH
THE AXIS OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUDS ALOFT
AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A SIGHTLY COOLER DAY
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) FEATURING HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION REGIME WILL REMAIN TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALIGNED WITH A BELT OF STRONGER WSW FLOW
AT THE 850-MB LAYER. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
CWFA, POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYERS OF STRATUS WILL LINGER
AND SHOULD OFFSET THERMAL ADVECTION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BITTERLY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION
(ORIGINATING FROM A 1050+ MB HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SK). THUS, WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF A
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS, A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SURGE OF
COLD/DRY AIR APPEARS AS IF IT WILL ARRIVE AT SOME POINT LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING (AFTER TEMPS MANAGE TO
REACH THE M-U 40S), WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, TO OUR WEST, AN AREA
OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ATTEMPTS TO PHASE
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST, STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO EASTERN AR.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 6-9Z SATURDAY, BUT WILL
INITIALLY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE M-U 20S AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICTING A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE IN THE LOW/MID-
LEVELS, THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR FREEZING RAIN,
AND AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR THREE NW AL
COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 6Z SATURDAY (WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN IS GREATEST). ALTHOUGH PROFILES
WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER, WARRANTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL ACROSS A BROAD REGION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
INTO THE TN VALLEY AS DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ABOVE
THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH, BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN
TO RISE, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN. PRECISELY WHERE THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SETS UP WILL BE CRITICAL IN DELINEATING
FREEZING RAIN FROM RAIN, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THIS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, WE EXPECT A SLOW BUT
PROGRESSIVE TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY (FROM SE-TO-NW),
BUT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN) AS WELL AS IN THE FAR
WEST, WHERE PROFILES MAY UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, INDUCING DEVELOPMENT OF
A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AL BY 12Z SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, AND WITH RECENT
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INDICATING RISES ON TRIBUTARIES, A FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED CAPE, BUT EVEN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS, ANY CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL BE
ELEVATED AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO VA/NC
SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NNW AND INCREASE, ALLOWING
COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY END AS THE NEW COLD
AIRMASS IS ARRIVING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ON
ITS TAIL END, FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES SUNDAY
NIGHT. PATCHES OF BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLEVIATE THIS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE, ELEVATED WINDS WILL CREATE WIND
CHILLS NEAR 0F AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ULTIMATELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY ERODE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY,
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE SUN MAY IMPROVE ROADS SOMEWHAT
BY THE AFTERNOON -- BUT ANY REMAINING SLUSH WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE
AFTER SUNSET.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 3 TO 8 DEGREES. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK IS, A FEW SUBZERO READINGS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE PLATEAU SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS TYPE OF COLD
DOESN'T OCCUR EVERY WINTER AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BE PREPARED
FOR IT. WE FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAY
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS EACH NIGHT. STILL, A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
HIGH RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN JANUARY 29, 2026 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1, 2026. THEREFORE,
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 17-20
DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...25
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