621
FXUS64 KHUN 071154
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK GO UP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A PARTIALLY CUTOFF LOW (INITIALLY ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE) WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND ACQUIRE A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE-TILT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS,
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL CONTRACT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF), SUPPORTING A
LOW-LEVEL JET THAT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN
KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING, AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE L-M 70S AND PWATS QUICKLY INCREASE
INTO THE 2-2.2" RANGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS
(CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MS/WEST-CENTRAL AL)
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST AL
THROUGH 12Z. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK
(AND PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF DEEP-LAYER WAA), IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH LIFT (GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES) FOR THIS REGIME TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z (ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
22-0Z). WEAK LAPSE RATES AND TEMPS PEAKING BETWEEN 75-80F WILL
GENERALLY KEEP CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE (PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER IN THE WEST IF SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS LAYER CAN OCCUR).
THUS, THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWAT VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ORIGINAL 8H/5H WAVE SHIFTING ONLY
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT I'M
NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL NOT BE CONTINUED CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS IN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST AL.
THE OKLAHOMA UPPER LOW WILL HAVE BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT. WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW BEING FAIRLY WEAK (8H-5H WSW AT
15-20KT), EXCESSIVE RAIN APPEARS TO BE A DISTINCT THREAT ON
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EDGES EAST
INTO THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEY. THE WPC ERO OF SLIGHT RISK BOTH
DAYS LOOKS GOOD AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DISRUPTING THE VAST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER BE DAMPENED AS A WAVE OF
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
WE ARE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, IT WON'T
FEEL LIKE IT. WE'LL BE TRAPPED IN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY (LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
20-50%). WE WILL ALSO TURN UP THE HEAT AS TEMPS STAY IN THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SET UP WILL
ALSO PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND VALUES GET A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. YES,
IT'S JUNE, HOWEVER WE DO NOT FEEL ACCLIMATED TO THE HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS LONG, SO ENSURE THAT YOU STAY HYDRATED AND SLOW
DOWN TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SCATTERED LGT-MOD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE QUICKLY EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSIFYING TO INCLUDE EMBEDDED TSRA BTWN 14-16Z.
ONCE THIS REGIME BEGINS, WE HAVE INCLUDED TSRA AS THE PREVAILING
WEATHER CONDITION THRU 22Z, AS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND EXTEND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, PROVIDING IFR-MVFR CIGS (WITH ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
FOR IMPROVEMENT BTWN 22-2Z). REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 9-12Z TIMEFRAME ON
MONDAY, AND FOR THIS WE HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SSE AT PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
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