460
FXUS64 KHUN 260813
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
213 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENT 2 AM RADAR SHOWS SHALLOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS TRAVERSING
EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SW SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS KEEPING OUR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. HREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN TN ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE SEVERE, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AMONG THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THE
DISJOINTED LINE OF STORMS ENTERS NW AL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. TO OUR SOUTH, THE SW FLOW AND LACK OF MORNING RAIN
WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION BY MID MORNING. WITH HREF MODELS
SHOWING A RECENT UPTICK IN FORECASTED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON,
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL AL. THIS MARGINAL
RISK CLIPS PORTIONS OF CULLMAN COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARIES OF THE SPC RISK, IT SPEAKS TO A BROADER TREND IN THE
MODELS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY, WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SW PROGRESSION OF STORMS. SHOULD STORMS
TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA, OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE
ABLE TO REALIZE SOME ADDITIONAL CAPE INCREASING THEIR SEVERE RISK.
IF RAIN AND STORMS DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS REALIZED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HAIL AS LAPSE RATES RISE CLOSE TO 7 C/KM. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE DISJOINTED
LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. BY MID AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT
TO OUR SOUTH WITH GRADUAL CLEARLY FORECAST FROM THE NW.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
REINVIGORATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THEREFORE, LINGERING LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR LOCAL AREA IN THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH NO RAIN
FORECAST FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL AID IN HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY! AS FOR LOWS, A COOLDOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S IS
ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO FROPA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT/CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER, IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN (20-40%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE TIMING OF RAINFALL DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, TRENDS HAVE HINTED THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL OVER THE
AREA, WHICH WILL BRING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IF REALIZED.
BY MID WEEK, A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA. A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THIS OCCURRING BEYOND THE
LONG TERM WINDOW FOR THE FORECAST, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES AS WE
PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS IN THE TAF AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 7Z
FROM THE NW. AS THE RAIN AND STORMS MOVE SE THROUGH THE MORNING,
LOW IFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
THE TERMINALS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO VACATE
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z, LOW IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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