132
FXUS64 KHUN 250515
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
- WE ARE MONITORING A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA DID NOT GET MUCH RAINFALL
TONIGHT, AS A LARGER MCS SYSTEM HAS MOVED MORE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI BORDER JUST NORTH OF THE CHEROKEE COMMUNITY AND
AREAS WSW OF THAT LOCATION. THOSE AREAS RECEIVED RECEIVED BETWEEN
ONE HALF OF AN INCH AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
RAINFALL PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING BUT GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER INTO THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
LOWS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS AND DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EDGING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NW ALABAMA. AT THE
SAME TIME, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THIS FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA DURING
THAT PERIOD. SHEAR DOES INCREASE MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND 40
KNOTS, BUT INSTABILITY MAY LAG BUILDING INTO THE AREA UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY THEN. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING MORE GENERAL TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE
INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK IN MORE QUICKLY TO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO INDIANA SSW INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME STORMS COULD PUSH INTO NW
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD
OF IT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND HELICITY
IS MUCH STRONG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHOWING JUST ENOUGH (100 TO 600
J/KG) OF SBCAPE OVER THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. THERE MIGHT BE A LOW
END QLCS TORNADO AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT MOVING
INTO NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TIMING CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY
TUESDAY. A POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY PUSHING AHEAD OF THE
STALLING FRONT, INCLUDING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS,
BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THIS
RISK MAY DECREASE. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY, WITH GREATER CHANCES ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES, AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, PERHAPS EVEN
WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH MUCH CERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND REMAINING PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HINDER
DESTABILIZATION. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING CAN OCCUR LATER THURSDAY. BUT
THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE TN
VALLEY WOULD BE ON THE COLD SECTOR SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED MCS RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DOWN TO MVFR AS LOWER CIGS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page