011
FXUS64 KHUN 291334
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
834 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 834 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY ON TAP FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE
ESE/SE, TEMPERATURE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TODAY, WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, THANKS TO EXCELLENT
DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS (AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT BMX)
SHOW A VERY DRY PROFILE, INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE.
SOME OF THIS DRY AIR COULD AGAIN MIX DOWN, LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND
RH VALUES. ALL IN ALL, DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD
FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE OUTDOORS. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS, CLEAR SKY,
AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
AS A RESULT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-WEEK, HOWEVER. THIS WILL ATTEMPT
TO MODIFY THE DRIER AIR MASS, ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY.
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S, THIS
WOULD CREATE MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MUCH WARMER NIGHTS
(ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER MOVES IN) WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEPS. ALOFT, A LONG WAVE THROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AS RIDGING DEPARTS OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL FIND OURSELF
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PLACE US SOLIDLY WITHIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK AS A PIPELINE FOR
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 70S, WHILE ALOFT, PWATS LOOK TO PUSH
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER (2"+).
THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIME US FOR A VERY WET WEEKEND. WHAT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH FORCING WILL PRESENT AS THE PARENT
TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THIS GIVES US SOME PAUSE WHEN CONSIDERING WEEKEND RAIN
CHANCES. THE CURRENT QUESTION IS IF HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PROLONGED OVER A WIDE SPREAD AREA OR IF SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED CREATING A MORE LOCALIZED CONCERN. KEPT BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF PROLONGED RAIN AND SPEED
IT FALLS. IF THE RAIN FALLS AT A STEADY RATE, LOCAL DRAINAGE MAY BE
ABLE TO HANDLE IT WITH MINIMAL PROBLEMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP,
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOOD CONCERNS. PLEASE
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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