321
FXUS64 KHUN 210843
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
A COOL, DRY AIR MASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY YESTERDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT, WHICH
HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY
NORMALLY MIGHT IN THIS AIR MASS. AS OF 0830Z, TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA -- WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S READINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKY TODAY, THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL VERY CHILLY OUTSIDE AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH
ABOVE THE LOWER 50S. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A
DEEPENING AROUND OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL, A GREAT
DAY TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU'RE HEADED OUTSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR TO THE REGION -- AND POTENTIALLY KEEP OUR WINDS
BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS GUSTY NW FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT
(SAVE FOR A VERY FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE). ADDITIONALLY THESE WINDS AND THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. THE REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO KNOCK HIGHS BACK A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES -- WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT FREEZE (THE FIRST ONE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD
IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE AIR MASS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST-MOVING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT -- BRINGING
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION DURING THE PEAK TRAVEL PERIOD FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. STILL A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, BUT WE MAY BE POSITIONED FOR
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING THIS WINDOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF. WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NW AROUND 5KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS OVER 25KT IN
THE LATE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 10KT AFTER DUSK.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...RSB
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