415
FXUS64 KHUN 230530
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 939 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TO 40-60% FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED HEAT CONCERNS WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISE INTO THE 95 TO 103 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER, A BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WANED, WITH JUST A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS,
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, IT SHOULD END UP BEING A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,
WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT, WITH POPS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10%
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
WE REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES CLIP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND FOLLOW COMMON SENSE HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HEAT. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, A WARMING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH SOME
SPOTS IN THE MID 90S ON MONDAY). THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ~5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 103 DEGREES. WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING HEAT INDEX VALUES
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY, AS WE NEAR CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. NWS
HEATRISK HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK, WHICH
MEANS HEAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT (ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION) AS WELL AS SOME HEALTH
SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, BE
SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS STAYING HYDRATED AND SEEKING
SHADE WHEN OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A TEMPO FOR CIGS DROPPING BELOW 1000 FEET WAS INCLUDED AT
BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AT KMSL, WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER THROUGH 15Z (AROUND 4 KNOTS..MAYBE LESS). HOWEVER, CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT KHSV
MORE FROM THE NW AS WELL THROUGH 15Z. THEN EXPECT WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. AROUND 17Z, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BREAK UP
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 24/00Z. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED LATER TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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