932
FXUS64 KHUN 081750
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR A SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- BETTER CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH
TOWARD THE CWA.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, AS A FEW
MORE (THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED) SHOWERS HAVE BUBBLED UP ACROSS
THE CWFA. THESE ARE MAINLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS A
FEW NOW DEVELOPING IN FAR NW AL. AS SUCH, HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW
OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SHOWERS WELL E ON THE TN/GA BORDER, AM NOT
ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH COVERAGE IN NE AL WITH THE RIDGING TO THE E
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE THERE (THOUGH POPS WERE NUDGED UP A FEW
PERCENT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS IN THE MOUNTAINS/EAST).
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER
90S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 90S WEST, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL
REMAIN BELOW 100F (WHICH IS A FAR CRY FROM THIS TIME LAST WEEK).
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ALOFT, AND AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSES THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL SEND A FRONT
SOUTHWARD, AND WITH IT, CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF THE TN RIVER HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING RAIN THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO IN THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES FOR US ARE HIGHEST
IN SRN MIDDLE TN (20-30%) AND ARE UPWARDS OF 60-70% OVER METRO
NASHVILLE. LOCALLY, IN CULLMAN COUNTY, RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS THAN
5%. AS WITH THIS PAST WEEKEND, GUSTY WINDS 30-40MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AHEAD OF MEDIUM CHANCES (~40%) FOR DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AXIS (INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY) WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOSE DEFINITION
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS,
ALONG WITH SW FLOW ALOFT (PROVIDED BY A WEAK MID- LEVEL TROUGH
DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY), WILL FORCE PWAT
VALUES BACK INTO THE 1.8-2" RANGE, LEADING TO A GENERAL INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. WITH NO
CLEAR EVIDENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, SUBTLE DEEP-
LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE
THE SOURCE OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION (LARGELY TIED TO THE DIURNAL
WARMING CYCLE, BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST
AT NIGHT, AS WELL).
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT RETROGRADES
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL IMPROVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH DEWPOINTS
RETURNING TO THE L-M 70S, PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
2" AND THIS COUPLED WITH COLLAPSING STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT MAY
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING DURING
THIS PERIOD. DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE U80S-L90S, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP IN THE VICINITY OF KHSV,
WITH ONE VERY NEARLY ATOP THE SITE RIGHT NOW. WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE, VCSH WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE TAFS, WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS CAUSING MVFR CONDS BRIEFLY AT BOTH SITES
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH SCT CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...12
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