883
FXUS64 KHUN 061535
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND BRIEF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING OVER THE NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS HINTED VIA AN INFRARED OR VISIBLE
VIEW, BUT WAS MORE DEFINITE VIA THE WATER VAPOR SPECTRUM. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
LOWER-48 WILL PRODUCE LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THIS AREA, ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE MID WEEK.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE
VALLEY, WITH AREA TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOG THAT IMPACTED PARTS OF THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE ADVENT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO UPPER 80S; MOST CERTAINLY A BREAK
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S MUCH OF THE VALLEY EXPERIENCED LAST
WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD MAX OUT INTO THE MID 90S TO 101
THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WERE A TAD COOLER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS. AREA DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.8". DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE
SURFACE BASED CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND LOW HELICITY VALUES
BELOW 100 M/S. THUS THUNDERSTORMS OF "GENERAL" INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY, THE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER, ALONG WITH AN INSTANCE
OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. PLACES THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WOULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FLOODING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END THIS EVENING, AS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT RETURNS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIKE THIS
MORNING, FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE LATE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVE WETTING RAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE POTENTIAL OF HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE IT WILL BE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION TUE/WED. THIS IN ITSELF WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER. ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING LOW/MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS TODAY IS, OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN "GENERAL" WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUE SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO
INTO THE NIGHT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO
AROUND 70. WED FORECAST SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER, IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDEXES FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES AND DIRECTED EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS HAPPENS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY AS A RESULT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY LOW MAINLY
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP, PEAKING AT 50-80% SATURDAY, DROPPING TO
40-60% SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR AND CIGS AT KHSV AND KMSL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 13Z. DURING THIS TIME SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT
ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE BY
AROUND 13Z-14Z. VCSH COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 12Z-15Z,
ESPECIALLY AT KMSL WHERE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. HAVE PUSHED FORECAST TIMING
FOR TSRA TO 19Z-23Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS
REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page