179
FXUS64 KHUN 261807
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 928 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
- STORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AS TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AS OF 18Z AND WILL EVENTUALLY PEAK IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
MOSTLY DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET,
EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WE ENTER A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE FOLLOWING 48 HOURS
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES (MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT), WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES (70-100%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING BOTH
WINDOWS.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT US NICE WEATHER TODAY
WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
MID SOUTH ON MONDAY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE SOME
BACKED SURFACE WINDS MAY REINFORCE THE DRIER "WEDGE" AIR MASS FROM
THE EAST ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A GLANCE AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATES THIS AND IS INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. FURTHER WEST,
HOWEVER, A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SB CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A
FORCING MECHANISM DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY LET ALONE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE AS AS TRIGGER FOR CLUSTERS
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AROUND
00Z, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY DIP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN 03-06Z. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, ENHANCING OUR 0-1
KM TO 20-30 KTS -- WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 60 KTS. THIS
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A WELL ORGANIZED
LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ROUGHLY DURING THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME. WHAT
IS FAR LESS CERTAIN IS WHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
LOOK LIKE AND IF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. IF THE
PROGGED CINH IS LOWER THAN FORECAST, A CONDITIONAL SETUP FOR ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST (DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND
TORNADOES), ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST 1-3 KM EVIDENT ON HODOGRAPHS. SHOULD STORMS STRUGGLE TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED OR REMAIN MORE ELEVATED AS THE MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW AND OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL). GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST MONDAY
EVENING, WITH A CONDITIONAL, LOWER THREAT OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
AT THIS POINT AND REMAIN SUBSEVERE. HOWEVER, SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75" TO
1.25" THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS MORNING
ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY, RESULTING IN SOME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S -- CREATING
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INTERACTING
WITH A COLD FRONT AND FORCING IT TO THE SE. THIS WILL DEVELOP
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TN/AR/OK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT, HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING SURFACE-
BASED, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AS WELL, PUTTING ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING TORNADOES.
AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE EVENTS, THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS AND THE MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY
A BIG PART IN THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE EVENT. HOWEVER, DO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT TIMEFRAME. OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WILL BE NEED TO
BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY AND FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES -- AND PLAN ON HAVING MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET
WARNINGS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY.
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NW. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS, SOME
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD RUNOFF CAUSE RISES
IN AREAS RIVERS AND STREAMS. WITH CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S.
NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS AROUND 50. THE COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. A BIT COOLER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. DESPITE THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, IT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE SE STATES,
AS WELL AS UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SE/SSE TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SSW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 10
TO 20 KTS AT TIMES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP
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