830
FXUS64 KHUN 211823
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS GUSTY
WINDS AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH 2-4
INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF BRIEF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
STRETCH.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS AND JUST
ABOVE FOR LOWS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WITH EVEN LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING, SBCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THUS, A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS WERE DEVELOPING AT
THIS HOUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL. VERY LOW BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZATION AND DCAPE IS QUITE LOW TO DUE
WEAK LAPSE RATES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF BUT INTENSE
DOWNPOURS GIVEN PW VALUES SITTING ~1.8-1.9 INCHES.
WE STILL EXPECT A DECLINE IN PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, A NEW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP IN MS TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CAMS
SUGGEST A CELLULAR MODE, AND GIVEN INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 30-40KT, SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR GIVEN DECENT DEEP LAYER
CAPE VALUES. THUS, SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE FOR
DAY 2 INCLUDING A 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIMILAR WAVE THAT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR TRAITS. THUS, ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, SUBSIDENCE
MAY QUELL ACTIVITY A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1-1.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A 5H RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO GA AND FL NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A
SIMILAR LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE POSITION, THE
ECMWF IS FAVORED HERE DUE TO ITS PERSISTENCE THIS WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE, THE PATTERN WILL KEEP PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLAY FOR THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOWERING TO LOW TO MEDIUM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GREATEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 02-06Z WITH ANOTHER BATCH
ARRIVING AFTER 13Z. HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY WITH AMENDMENTS
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 01-02Z,
THEN DROP BACK TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS
REDEVELOP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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