016
FXUS64 KHUN 241947
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 IN NORTHERN AL
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER CULLMAN COUNTY SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THAT AREA WILL BE OUR BIGGEST CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN OVER WINSTON COUNTY CAN BE SEEN
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO CULLMAN COUNTY AND WITH PWATS NEAR
2.3-2.5" IN SOME LOCATIONS, WE COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 2" PER
HOUR. WITH THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STATIONARY ALONG CULLMAN,
MARSHALL, AND DEKALB COUNTIES, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL WILL EXPIRE AT 7PM THIS EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENSION IF THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TRENDS HIGHER TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BRING A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND - BUT NOT NECESSARILY IN A GOOD WAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH PWATS NEAR
2.2-2.3". THIS WILL PROLONG THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN
AL, BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND RAINFALL SO FAR THIS WEEK HAS
KEPT CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. THAT BEING SAID, ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WOULD WORK TO EXACERBATE FLOODING
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WE WILL TRADE THE RAIN AND
STORMS FOR A BIGGER HEAT CONCERN STARTING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH HUMIDITY BRINGING HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET AT THIS POINT, IT WILL BE THE FIRST OF A LONG STRETCH OF
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED INCIDENTS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REMEMBER
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT
CLOTHING, AND NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A NW
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RISING TEMPERATURE TREND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES THIS WEEKEND AS HEAT
INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM HEAT IS ON THE TABLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT/DEPTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME, WHICH BRINGS LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF RAINFALL
BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROKEN DECK
OF STRATUS CLOUDS HOLDING NEAR 2-3KFT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO INCREASING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR
NOT WE WILL SEE FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING, SO
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH MORE AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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