573
FXUS64 KHUN 072333
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NE AL AND ALONG THE TN RIVER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA AND AS A RESULT A FEW
STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING
ISSUES AS STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 70S. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT GET ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHTS OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS, WE DO NOT EXPECT
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE LOCAL FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THEREFORE, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. OVERALL, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. FOG CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT REMAIN LOW, BUT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WHERE THE RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON (THANKS TO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE). AS A RESULT, HEAT/HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF OUR MESSAGING. EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES) IN
MOST LOCATIONS. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
CATEGORY.
COINCIDING WITH THESE HEAT CONCERNS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PRIMED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD JUST NORTH OF THE KMSL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. THUS, A
VCTS WAS INCLUDED PREDOMINANTLY AT KMSL WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 00Z
AND 01Z FOR A POSSIBLE TSRA IMPACTING THE THAT TERMINAL. THIS
COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS TO THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER
EAST, ACTIVITY HAS PUSHES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE KHSV TERMINAL.
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WERE KEPT THERE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
NEAR THE KMSL TERMINALS TO DISSIPATE AROUND 1Z. THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BE A
DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG.
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISED LOWER IF DENSER FOG DEVELOPS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 13Z (MAYBE A HOUR OR TWO LAYER IF
DENSER FOG FORMS). THEN PROB30 GROUPS (MAINLY 18Z TO 23Z) FOR
TSRA ACTIVITY WERE INCLUDED IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA DEVELOPMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page