130
FXUS64 KHUN 060039
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
739 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND BRIEF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY AS THE COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AL AND
NORTHEAST MS. THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING A RESURGENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY REMAINING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN DISSIPATING
SOON AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS.
ON MONDAY, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FIELD AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK MCV MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO 90 IN VALLEY AREAS AND LOWER 80S ATOP
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS CONCERN FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAIN GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 VALLEYS (MIDDLE 80S PLATEAU), WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES AND DIRECTED EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS HAPPENS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY AS A RESULT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY LOW MAINLY
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP, PEAKING AT 50-80% SATURDAY, DROPPING TO
40-60% SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME ISOLATED THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 08-09Z WHEN PATCHY BR OR FG
DEVELOPS. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PATCHY IFR.
FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY OF ~5SM AT KHSV AND KMSL
THROUGH 13Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH TEMPORARY
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OR IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHRA AND
TSRA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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