355
FXUS64 KHUN 151839
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
139 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 828 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REACHING
IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER TN AND
NORTHWEST AL AS ADVECTION OF THETA-E INCREASES IN MID LEVELS.
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHWEST AL.
COOL POCKETS IN NORTHEAST AL DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 828 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PENETRATE THE RIDGE AXIS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN GA ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD CLIP EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AL AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST AL. OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90. AT LEAST DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S KEEPING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAME RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL INCREASE/REINFORCE A VERY WARM, MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
SWINGS ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHARPER TROUGH
MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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