357
FXUS64 KHUN 050112
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
ONE INCH HAIL ON SUNDAY.
- A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THUS FAR, ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHRA AND A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DEPLETE
THESE UPDRAFTS RATHER QUICKLY. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER CLUSTER IN
NEARBY MARION COUNTY HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW NORTHEASTWARD THAT HAS
SPARKED A FEW MORE SHRA AND TSRA IN NORTHWEST AL THIS EVENING. AN
MCV THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CONVECTION OVER AR WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO MS OVERNIGHT, SO WON'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING FAR WESTERN AL OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO CHANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN A WET AND LESS OPPRESSIVELY HOT PERIOD. A
TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
OZARKS AND RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, SLOWLY DEEPENING INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
ON SUNDAY, STRONGER INSTABILITY REDEVELOP OWING TO A MARGINAL
RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE REGION (MAINLY FROM DOWNBURSTS
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL). THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AGAIN WITH SOME FORCING ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE RISK MAY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. BY
TUESDAY, THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHIFTING THE WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH PWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE NEW NBM
PROVIDES, BUT I FORESEE THE POP TREND DROPPING FOR TUESDAY WITH
TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGESTING
LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER TREND WE NEED TO MONITOR
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A WARM AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, KEEPING THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2 INCHES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IF SLOW MOVING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH 06Z. THE CHANCE IS A BIT HIGHER
AT KMSL SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AS A FEW -SHRA HAVE ALREADY
ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. PATCHY BR OR FG IS EXPECTED
FROM 09-12Z, WITH A TEMPO FORECAST OF 5SM BR (MVFR) AT KHSV AND
KMSL. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY 05/18Z, AND
HAVE INCLUDED PROB 30 GROUPS FOR BOTH KHSV AND KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17
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