589
FXUS64 KHUN 230140
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PAINT A FAIRLY CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE CURRENT SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
JUST TO OUR SW, CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NW OF THIS FEATURE, WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO THE NORTH, BEGINNING OUR INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AS SET UP IN NE AL. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A COLD
AIR DAMAGING REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH, SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP IN NE AL. PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM THE TROUGH, THIS WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR NE AL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH,
IF THE TROUGH SETS UP SW OF OUR CWA, MOST OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN
DRY. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH CAA BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AND LIFT NORTH. WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG THIS FEATURE,
SLIGHT GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS, MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ALOFT, WE WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN
TROUGHING TO OUR NE AND RIDGING TO OUR SW. THIS WILL PLACE US
SOLIDLY WITHIN NW FLOW, WHICH WILL REINFORCE OUR COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MAIN TALKING POINT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONITORING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REMAINING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST, SUPPORTING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THE END OF THE LONG TERM COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST OF OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES,
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE, A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WILL BE IN
STORE FOR US. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AGAIN TUESDAY AFTER BEING LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL
PATTERN WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DON'T BREAK OUT THE
HOT CHOCOLATE YET- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
OCTOBER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, NO HEAT PRODUCTS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A LOWER
MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING IN AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK
TO VFR TO MIDDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND LOCATION IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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