038
FXUS64 KHUN 030251
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF 20-50% TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 40-60% BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN (AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A RISK FOR FLASH AND
AREAL FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
- A COLD FRONT WILL USHER A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THAT SWEPT IN A WNW-ESE MANNER
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
AS IT SWEPT EASTWARD HELPED DEVELOP MAINLY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN CONDITIONS WERE MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NW ALABAMA. THE BOUNDARY
WAS STILL EVIDENT VIA RADAR, NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHATTANOOGA,
TO NEAR ARAB. WITH COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES, LITTLE TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING WITH THE PASSING BOUNDARY. AREAS
THAT DID GET WET MAINLY RECEIVED LIGHT AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/10 OF
AN INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FURTHER NW ALABAMA.
AFTER A RATHER WARM TO HOT EARLY OCTOBER DAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 90S (A GOOD TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE), 9 PM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
A COLD FRONTAL HEADING TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE NW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
FRONT COULD HELP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (FEWER THUNDERSTORMS)
DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MAINLY LOWER END
RAIN CHANCES GOING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. WE CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
PRIMARILY IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND FOG FAVORED
LOCATIONS AROUND THE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN
A SW-NE MANNER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY, DEEPER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 2"), VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHEAR AND NOT VERY HIGH INSTABILITIES SHOULD KEEP OVERALL
STORM STRENGTH BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. DESPITE ON-GOING DRY
CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RUNOFF AND PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ISSUES IF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACT A SINGULAR AREA. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF REGION. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND AROUND
THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PER THE BLENDS AND 18Z MODEL
OUTPUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEW
NAM COMING IN WAS CONFIRMING A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY
SPELL, VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES SHOULD THEY OCCUR MORE TO THE NORTH
COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF AND FLOODING ISSUES IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PER THE BLENDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER ON SUN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE SUN NIGHT, AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE SUN NIGHT SHOULD SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN
MON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REIGN FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND CONTROLS THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS, DAILY HIGHS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 80 TUE AND WED, AND IN THE MID 80S THU AND FRI.
WITH LONGER NIGHTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FALL SEASON, LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO THE LOW/MID 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST
AL WHERE PREVIOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE WORST
CASE SCENARIO AND DEPICTED BY A FEW/SCT GROUP IN THE CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE. CEILINGS LIFT TO MVFR THEN VFR HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AT WHICH POINT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...30
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