989
FXUS64 KHUN 072201
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
MONDAY.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK INCREASE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RAIN RATES HAVE OVERPERFORMED FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST, WITH
WIDESPREAD SLOW-MOVING TRAINING OCCURRING THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AL
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED
1-2" WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5-7" OBSERVED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-4" ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL FURTHER WORSEN FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS, CREEKS HAVE ALSO OVERRUN BRIDGES IN
PORTIONS OF NW AL AND RIVERS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED DUE TO
RUNOFF. THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO IN MADISON COUNTY HAS RISEN
INTO ACTION STAGE (15 FT) AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE (17 FT) WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS RIVER WILL CREST IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (19 FT) AROUND 06Z TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING
TO GRADUALLY DECLINE. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS RIVER
BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW. NEWEST CAMS SHOW INSTABILITY FORECAST TO
INCREASE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY- WITH SFC CAPE VALUES REACHING
~2000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACHING ~7 C/KM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW AL. IN TURN, WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT HAND CONTINUES
TO BE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE 2-2.5" THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING CONTINUED EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS. SATURATED SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DOWNED TREES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO USE EXTREME CAUTION IF OUTDOORS OR ON
ROADWAYS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL DECREASE AROUND
02-03Z TONIGHT, HOWEVER, RECENT CAMS HAVE PORTRAYED LINGERING
RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
BOTTOM LINE: PLEASE DO NOT GO AROUND BARRICADES OR CROSS INTO
FLOOD WATERS (EVEN THOSE WITHOUT BARRICADES OR SIGNS). JUST 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN SWEEP AWAY AN ADULT AND 12 INCHES OF RAIN
CAN SWEEP AWAY SMALL CARS. AS NIGHTFALL ARISES, FLOODING WILL BE
HARDER TO SEE. USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ROADWAYS.
PREVIOUS AFD:
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT BOTH JAN AND BMX INDICATE PWATS OF ~2.1 TO 2.2",
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (NEAR MAX VALUES) AT BOTH
SITES. THEREFORE, EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING WILL INCREASE
THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5-1.5" IS LIKELY TODAY WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3-4" IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, PREVENTING STRONG STORMS FROM BEING A
CONCERN. FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY, WE CONTINUE TO URGE
CAUTION ON ROADWAYS AS PONDING OF WATER AND SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT,
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. RECENT
CAMS CONTINUE TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RAMP BACK UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY. WPC HAS
THE TN VALLEY OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
TUESDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 2-2.2" RANGE.
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PONDING
OF WATER IN ROADWAYS AND THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. DUE
TO THESE SATURATED SOILS, TREES HAVE A HIGHER RISK OF FALLING
EVEN WITH SUB-SEVERE WINDS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, REACHING THE LOW 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DISRUPTING THE VAST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER BE DAMPENED AS A WAVE OF
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
WE ARE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, IT WON'T
FEEL LIKE IT. WE'LL BE TRAPPED IN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY (LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
20-50%). WE WILL ALSO TURN UP THE HEAT AS TEMPS STAY IN THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SET UP WILL
ALSO PUSH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND VALUES GET A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. YES,
IT'S JUNE, HOWEVER WE DO NOT FEEL ACCLIMATED TO THE HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS LONG, SO ENSURE THAT YOU STAY HYDRATED AND SLOW
DOWN TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV AS LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH HEAVY SHOWERS. LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS DROPPING TO 300-400 FT. THESE HAVE BEEN ADDED AS PROB30
GROUPS. WHILE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, LOWERED
CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ALZ001-005-006-009.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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