163
FXUS64 KHUN 121033
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY INTO THE EVENING,
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN IN, IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THIS WAS FEEDING OFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST
LLJ OF 25-30KT. THE CAMS HAVE INDICATED VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
TODAY. ONE SCENARIO IS THE LINE WEAKENS OR DISSIPATES AS IT
ARRIVES IN THE TN VALLEY AND LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
RUNS INTO A BUILDING 8H RIDGE. OR, THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN
OR EVEN INTENSIFY A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTING CAPE VALUES. IN EITHER
CASE, A SECONDARY REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN TN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DOWNBURSTS INVERTED V PROFILES AND HIGH POTENTIAL DCAPE. WILL
MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING. BUT HAVE KEPT THE
TIME WINDOW OF THE STORMS RATHER LARGE TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY BUT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE
PROGGED TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE
TN VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE
MUCH OF NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN REMAINS IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS. THIS WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS
THE CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN PWATS IN THE 2-2.2"
RANGE, ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST
WEEKEND. GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LINGERING SOGGY GROUND,
IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE RAIN THAT FALLS TO BECOME RUNOFF
AND START TO CAUSE RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS. PLEASE REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE MINDFUL OF THE FLOODING
THREAT ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE TRAVELING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT
SATURATED SOILS. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING PWATS AROUND 1.8-2.2", WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE, THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES
HOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS AS WELL AS IF THERE'S A RISK FOR STRONGER
STORMS. CURRENTLY, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL PLACEMENT/TIMING, THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AND URGE EVERYONE WITH
OUTDOOR INTERESTS TO CHECK BACK IN FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A LINE OF TSRA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTHWEST
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN BY 15-17Z. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THE TSRA WILL REMAIN INTACT. IF THEY DISSIPATE, THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSRA FROM
19Z-24Z. GUSTY WINDS AND +RA WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE TSRA. AFTER THE TSRA DEPART, A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY 02Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17
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