022
FXUS64 KHUN 160527
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL
4/4) HEAT IMPACTS FORECAST.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR EXTREME WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THAT. IF IT DOESN'T MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS, THEN MIXING
MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
- A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR AND EAST OF I-65 MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
CURRENTLY ANY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WOULD EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DO THE SAME THIS FAR NORTH. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT, THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AT 10 PM. THIS IS STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
NIGHT. THINKING WE COULD AT LEAST SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM OR SO. THINK THIS WOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THOUGH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP DEWPOINTS GIVEN WSW TO W FLOW SEEN AROUND
925 MB. THIS AND VALLEY DRAINAGE SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY BREAK
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OR DENSE SUNDAY MORNING.
NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE MAINLY KEEPS 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 28 OR 29 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON TODAY'S COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 95 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC. BELIEVE MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY, SO AT THIS TIME A EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD BE AIDED SLIGHTLY BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT TO OUR NORTH. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
THIS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THERE IS SOME QUESTION CONCERNING HOW
QUICKLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
IF THIS FRONT IS SLOWER AND DOESN'T MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MAY BE FOCUSED MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD LIKELY
KEEP US IN A GENERAL HEAT ADVISORY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH QUICKER AND FOCUSES HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 110 DEGREES COULD BE MET IN SOME AREAS. OVERALL GOOD
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BETTER SHEAR
(25-30 KNOTS) IN MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS,
EASTERN TENNESSEE, AND NE GEORGIA. IF THIS IS THE CASE, AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, A STRONG OR
SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING MOVING
INTO THE AREA (MAINLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IF SEVERE STORMS
ARE REALIZED. TIMING OF ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPREAD IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IN GUIDANCE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, LEANING
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOW NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
CURRENTLY, NBM IS GOING THE DRIER ROUTE. EITHER WAY, HIGHS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS
SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY CLIMBING TO AROUND
106 OR 107 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS NW FLOW CONTINUES AND
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MORE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOWER-48 WILL
CONTROL THE GENERAL WEATHER FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE SE COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT FOG IS UNLIKELY AT
KMSL, OTHER MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BE IMPACTED BY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER DAYBREAK.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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