019
FXUS64 KHUN 141439
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
939 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 939 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING.
- DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO
THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, WHERE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
- MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
REPEAT EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AT THIS HOUR, OTHERWISE STARTING TO SEE SOME BLUE SKIES OUT THE
WINDOW. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
TO WARM US UP QUICKLY TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) THROUGH
LUNCHTIME AS STORMS FIRE OFF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE DECAYING MCS OFF TO OUR WEST. MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING, HOWEVER A FEW CAN
BECOME STRONG AS ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS START TO IMPROVE FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL BE FOCUSING ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS WILL DEVELOP STORMS THAT COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. RIGHT NOW, HIGH RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NW AL ABOUT 2PM, NORTH
CENTRAL AL/S. MID TN 3-4PM, AND NE AL ABOUT 5PM. EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST: CAPE 2-3,000 J/KG, BULK SHEAR 20-25KTS, SHEAR MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL, PWATS UP TO 2", AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
7-8 C/KM. WITH THIS, STORMS CAN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. IN FACT, SPC'S MORNING UPDATE, EXPANDED THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE TN VALLEY. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL,
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND LIGHTNING.
AFTER THAT LINE PASSES, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
WILL HELP CLOUDS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED OVER THE ONTARIO, HUDSON BAY,
QUEBEC OF SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA, SHOULD REMAIN OVER THAT REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FROM SE
VIRGINIA, TO SOUTH OF ATLANTA, NEAR MONTGOMERY, TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY ACROSS SOME OF OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH WE'RE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF JUNE,
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS A "REAL" BOUNDARY DEPICTING TWO
DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
A COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT FAR
NORTHERN ALABAMA, TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGER BODIES OF WATER SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 60S. IT SHOULD BE
A TAD WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ALSO A
BIT MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. NORMAL HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 89/68 FOR REFERENCE.
FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND NEARBY POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP LOWER END RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR OUR AREAS SOUTH OF OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS A LARGE, UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EASTWARD AND
FLATTENS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS APPEARS TO CHANGE COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK AND LARGELY PERSIST OVER THIS REGION
INTO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH FROPA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT A DRY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%)
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE BY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WITH LOWER BULK SHEAR ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY (ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING BY LATE WEEK. PWATS INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.7
INCHES ON THURSDAY TO OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THAT PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION,
EVEN WITH A BRIEF "DRIER" PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SATURATED (THE GROUND IS VERY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL). THUS, THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO EVEN SUB-SEVERE
WINDS, MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNED TREES. OVERALL, PLEASE
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
LASTLY, FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, IT'LL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES. LOWS WILL INCREASE TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE, BUT ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE COOLER (IN THE 60S) BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING
IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE OPTED FOR VCSH WITH PROB30
GROUPS FROM 16-24Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT IN AND NEAR TSRA
WHEN CEILINGS SHOULD DROP BELOW 030AGL (MVFR) WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITY IN EITHER MODERATE TO HEAVY RA. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY 02-04Z. PATCHY
LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 025AGL (MVFR) ARE INDICATED AFTER 02Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page