429
FXUS64 KHUN 272249
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA
FROM SATURDAY 7 AM TO 7 PM.
- COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S, WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10-20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH MINIMAL
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY AS OF 227 PM WAS LOCATED ABOUT FROM NEAR
CHATTANOOGA, SOUTH OF CULLMAN, AND NEAR TUPELO. WINDS AS THE FRONT
MOVED BY WENT FROM A NW TO W DIRECTION, THEN ARE MORE FROM THE
NW-N FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WAS MORE APPARENT
A HUNDRED OR SO MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM AROUND 50 OVER NW TENNESSEE, TO THE UPPER 70S SE PART OF THE
STATE.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WERE ALSO OCCURRING.
TEMPS NOW IN THE 70S WILL COOL A BIT QUICKER AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING. BY 6 PM, THEY SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
FAR NW ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES, TO LOWER 70S OVER
SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND CULLMAN COUNTIES. BY MIDNIGHT, FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA WILL PRODUCE
N-NE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY, NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CHILLY CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER
60S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AIR WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY DESPITE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW/MID 20S DEWPOINTS. THESE COLD DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S PERCENT. THESE VALUES WILL BE DRY ENOUGH, ALONG
WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUS OUTDOOR FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD POTENTIAL, THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE DAY SATURDAY. OUTDOOR BURNS TOMORROW ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
GIVEN THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS.
IT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS INTO THE LOWER
40S. THIS PALM SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S, AND LOWS THAT
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SUBSEQUENTLY, AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
WILL INCREASE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL DROP INTO THE 50S-60S.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE RETURN OF
RAINFALL CHANCES TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
THEREFORE, LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING HAS
INCREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS TRENDING MORE EASTWARD/OUT OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS TN AT THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF IT, WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE NNW WITH LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. AS
THIS FEATURE DROPS SOUTH, LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BRIEFLY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BUT
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE N AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWEST AL IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL 4TH-5TH.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR
EXCEED 1-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-
014-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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