868
FXUS64 KHUN 020450
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOONS OF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LOWER CHANCES (20-40%) MID-WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNING ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 12026
THE LAST OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF NE AL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF TIME IT HAS LEFT WITH US,
HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING, SPECIFICALLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF JACKSON CO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
MARSHALL CO. IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY NUISANCE FLOODING, DO NOT WALK
OR DRIVE THROUGH IT. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. FLOODING IS HARD TO
SEE AT NIGHT, SO BE CAREFUL.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN GIVEN SOME DRIER
AIR THAT SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER TIME ON SUNDAY
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR IS WELL EAST OF
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN MOST GUIDANCE SO GENERAL SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING SEVERE.
DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
HIGHS SHOULD BE RATHER COOL, ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS MORE
SSE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON (50-70%). AGAIN, DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS
UPPER LOW, NOT REALLY SEEING AMPLE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY IN PLACE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SOME
TRAINING OF BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MAYBE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER
LOW. A BIT MORE MORNING SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB A TAD
HIGHER, BUT STILL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT INT THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 85 DEGREES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND THEN NW AS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRAWS IT THAT
DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-60%) CHANCES OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
LOOK TOO MEAGER FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO AN
OPEN WAVE THAT MERGES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE CATEGORY.
GFS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER,
THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT THIS TIME. SO
STAYING WITH LOWER POP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (20-40%). HOWEVER,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCE
POTENTIAL IF THAT MATERIALIZES. AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING EXPECTED.
MODELS DO SEEM A BIT MORE CONVERGENT ON A WEAK FRONT (LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT) PUSHING EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD CREATE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN,
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
CONCERNS. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES MAY BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
BREAKUP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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