267
FXUS64 KHUN 281050
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA. FURTHER EAST, THIS THREAT
WILL LINGER UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SOLID HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH IS FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SEVERAL WEAKENING BOW ECHOES HAVE TRACKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. WHILE
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED, NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS YET
BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 330 AM. A PERSISTENT CAP FROM THE EVENING
COUPLED WITH WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT HAS LIMITED THE CEILING
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF ONGOING STORMS HAS THEM
TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AROUND 7 AM, SO LONG AS THEY DO NOT
SLOW DOWN.
BEHIND THESE STORMS, ATTENTION TURNS TO APPROACHING BROAD SYNOPTIC
LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT WILL TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A TIGHTENING
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL STREAM ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THIS INTERACT WITH THE STORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK AND POTENTIALLY STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA?
PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS HARD. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
STORMS IS DRAPED AROUND I-20 TO I-22 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AL WILL
START TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE DESTABILIZATION OVER THAT AREA.
UNLIKELY SCENARIO #1 IS THAT THE OUTFLOW BECOMES REINFORCED WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND STRUGGLES TO LIFT THIS FAR
NORTH, THEREFORE PRECLUDING US FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER. UNLIKELY
SCENARIO #2 IS THAT THE RETREATING COOL AIR/ADVANCING WARM AND
MOIST AIR IS SO STRONG THAT OUR ENTIRE AREA DESTABILIZES AND WE
HAVE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. FOR NOW, WILL OPT FOR THE MOST
LIKELY AREA BEING WEST OF I-65. CONVECTION APPROACHES THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND MORE DETAILS ARE INCLUDED
BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD
ABOVE A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
INTO TN VALLEY REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WHILE MAINTAINING RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN DISCRETE STORMS/CLUSTERS EAST OF A DRYLINE FEATURE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION,
PARTICULARLY AS THE PROGRESSION AND EVENTUAL IMPACTS OF TONIGHT'S
STORMS MAY INFLUENCE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, INSTABILITY RECOVERY,
AND STORM MODE AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION COULD ALTER WHERE THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS AND MAY RESULT IN
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST SEVERE
THREAT IN LATER FORECASTS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS
OR A LINE/MCS OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS WOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER
TORNADOES IF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS CAN BE REALIZED. IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HOLD, THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY SHIFT TOWARD DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS, THOUGH EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY FORM WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER
WEAKER INSTABILITY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND ENSURE THEY HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND COOLER TEMPS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF
CIN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW FOR NOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1" FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ON PAR WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR RISES ON
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S-70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VCTS/TSRA WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OR IN THE VICINITY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE SUB
SEVERE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH AROUND 16Z. A TEMPO GROUP FROM 12-16Z HAS BEEN INCLUDED
FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT MAY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. AFTER 16Z, CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR THROUGH AROUND 00Z. FROM 00Z AND BEYOND
THE FORECAST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE WE CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS, WE EXPECTED SHOWERS, STORMS, AND LOW CLOUDS (MVFR TO IFR) TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page