596
FXUS64 KHUN 250905
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 405 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, NW FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NM AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS QUEBEC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW, A WEAKENING VORT MAX (TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY) WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN
AL AROUND 12Z, BEFORE PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A MINOR INCREASE IN UVMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WITH THIS CLOUD DECK
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
SUNRISE, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (WITH TEMPS IN THE L-M 60S) SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO PRECLUDE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A FEW PATCHES OF VIRGA (OR PERHAPS EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO)
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSING UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE (MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 10-16Z), BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE SURFACE PRECIPITATION REMAIN AT 10% OR LESS. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE FROM N-TO-S BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
(ALLOWING ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE U80S-L90S),
AND WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
OZARKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MS/CENTRAL AL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LITTLE (IF ANY) NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 60S AND KEEP HI LARGELY IN THE 90-95F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAY IS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, AND
PERHAPS MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND THE
HIGHER PLATEAU LOCATIONS. A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY, BUT NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION
THIS FAR EAST GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS.
THAT CHANGES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE OR MCV
INDUCED WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM KS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THETA-E ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (PROBABLY ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS WEST OF I-65. THEN AS THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS RECEIVING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, SO A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED, SO CURRENT NBM HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S MAY BE SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. WE WILL MONITOR FUTURE MODEL
TRENDS ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WELL AS THIS SHORTWAVE DROPS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AN ACTUAL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS UNLIKELY NOW UNTIL
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINTAINING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-
WIDE BY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR NOW, HOWEVER, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL ENCOURAGED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS. BE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK SHADE IF OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLEAR AT THE MOMENT AT BOTH HSV/MSL, WEAK
ATMOSHPERIC LIFT (PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE TN VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST) WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF AC THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW LGT SHRA MAY
ALSO OCCUR REGION-WIDE IN THE 10-16Z TIMEFRAME, BUT SHOULD COME
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. AS THE DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES FURTHER
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING, SKIES
WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM N-TO-S BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTN, WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING PATCHES OF AC/CI EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LGT ENE SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING,
BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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