317
FXUS64 KHUN 010644
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
144 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN
AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH 7PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES UP TO 114F. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
7PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST REGION-WIDE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A DANGEROUS HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY
AS A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
RESIDES AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105-112 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. NWS HEAT
RISK HIGHLIGHTS LEVEL 3 OF 4 (MAJOR RISK) TO LEVEL 4 OF 4 (EXTREME
RISK) ACROSS THE REGION DAY. THUS, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 7 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TODAY -- STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
IN ADDITION TO THE DANGEROUS HEAT, A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%)
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS A
WEAK PERTURBATION ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS (2-8 PM). THE STORM ENVIRONMENT
IS "CUSTOM MADE" FOR DOWNBURSTS TODAY, WITH VERY STEEP 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9 C/KM, DCAPE VALUES OF 1300 J/KG, MLCAPE
VALUES OF 4000 J/KG, PWATS AROUND 2", AND A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V
PROFILE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS, ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AS ALWAYS, HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO GET WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER PATTERN (UPPER RIDGE) WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND FURTHER FLATTEN ON FRIDAY. RIPPLES OF SUBTLE UPPER
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS DOWN INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
PERSIST. THEREFORE, HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING LEVEL (BUT
HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL). HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL CONTINUE
(WITH LOWS IN THE 70S), WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110 DEGREE
RANGE. NWS HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES AND
FORECAST WBGTS CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. THEREFORE, WHILE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS EXTENDED
FURTHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY
AND STAY WEATHER AWARE IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH NO RAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIURNAL PATTERN, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE THE NORM THROUGH LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION, THE DOWNBURST RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY, AS THE
PARAMETERS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN
VALUE. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE DOWNBURST PARAMETER VALUES
DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK, JUST
PERHAPS NOT FOR HIGH-END DOWNBURSTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
OVERALL, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DOWNBURSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND SOME SMALL HAIL ALSO THREATS. STAY WEATHER AWARE!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
WE HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN THE THICK OF THE HEATWAVE THIS WEEK BUT
LET'S CONTINUE TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY: THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND YOU
NEED TO ENSURE THAT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND PETS ARE
STAYING SAFE FROM THE HEAT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS, HEAT
EXHAUSTION CAN LEAD TO HEAT STROKE. HYDRATE WITH WATER, WEAR LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING, SEEK SHADE OR TAKE BREAKS INDOORS, NEVER LEAVE
PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES, CHECK IN ON YOUNG CHILDREN AND THE
ELDERLY. MORE SAFETY INFO CAN BE FOUND ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND
WEBSITE.
THIS WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
EASTWARD, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE TN VALLEY AND THE
REGION. SATURDAY/JULY 4TH, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE
IF ANOTHER HEAT PRODUCT NEEDS TO BE ISSUED AS HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH NEARLY EVERYONE FEELING A HEAT INDEX OF
100 AND SOME SPOTS REACHING A HEAT INDEX OF 105. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH LOW CHANCES (20-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL CREATE A SFC LOW THAT WILL TOTE
A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR MEDIUM CHANCES ON SUNDAY
(40-60%), THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES ON MONDAY (50-70%) AND
TUESDAY (60-80%) AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL BE VERY WEAK
TO NO WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CAPE, HIGH PWATS, AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE,
THERE WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND RISK WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES, WE WILL SEE
A DECREASE IN TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-00Z. SHOULD A TSRA IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL,
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP
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