906
FXUS64 KHUN 070423
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 831 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
DID YOU SEE THE DEEP ORANGE AND RED HUE IN THE SUNSET TONIGHT?
THAT IS DUE TO THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT IS FILTERING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
THE BOUNDARY THAT SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERING LINGER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL SINK IN BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
FOR THOSE WHO WERE LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE RAINFALL TODAY. TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 70S, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL END UP IN THE LOWER
60S. ADJUSTED POPS AND HOURLY TEMPS, OTHERWISE TONIGHT'S FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, AS DRIER AIR RESIDES
OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AN UPPER VORT MAX WILL NEAR THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING, AND
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN AL. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN A 20-30% POP. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON
TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE,
WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WAA WILL
INCREASE TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WILL SEE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS FLOODING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO INTO MORE DETAIL AT THIS TIME. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSRA AFTER 18Z IN
NORTHEAST AL INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT EITHER LOCATION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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