673
FXUS64 KHUN 160510
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY CLIMB TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY OVER THE WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
ONLY A COUPLE OF REMAINING SMALL SHOWERS REMAIN THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND LIGHT
FLOW CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS SHIFTED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OZARKS
AND WILL LIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, THEN
INGESTED INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOW AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER GA RESULTING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG AN EXISTS SHEAR AXIS. THE MODELS SHOWS THIS MCV
SHIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO WESTERN GA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS PIVOTS
FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WHICH
MAY INFLUENCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. IN EITHER CASE, LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW WILL IN PART INDUCE MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO START THE NEW WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUN. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE TO
THE EAST, WITH LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE WEST. WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS, SEASONABLY WARM OR HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST, AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE SE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO MON, ALONG
WITH MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL HELP RETURN MAINLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR MON-WED.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD
SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH SOME MID 90S ON TUE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 FOR THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HEAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ON TUE, WITH AN AREA AROUND
GREATER HUNTSVILLE RISING INTO THE 105-106 DEGREE. THIS PERIOD IS TOO
FAR OUT TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY THIS ISSUANCE, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND FOR NEXT WEEK. RATHER WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PERIOD, IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD
BRING LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO MVFR CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND
LUNCHTIME BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THEM WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP DO TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH
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