764
FXUS64 KHUN 191125
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE (~10%) OF STRONGER STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HEAT RISK WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, FROM MODERATE VALUES
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) TODAY AND THURSDAY, DOWN TO MINOR VALUES (LEVEL
1 OF 4) LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LAST
NIGHT HAS BECOME STATIONARY, ORIENTED APPROXIMATELY FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, TO NORTH OF MONTGOMERY, TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED WELL SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM YESTERDAY HAS
FADED, WITH JUST THINNING CIRRUS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A COOLER
AIRMASS IS NOTICEABLE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 (COMPARED TO MID/UPPER 70S YESTERDAY). ALTHOUGH COOLER,
DEWPOINT VALUES WERE NEAR OR MATCHING DRYBULB TEMPERATURES. THUS
THERE IS A RISK OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG FORMATION
(WHICH WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE SUMMER
AND BEYOND), AS DAYS BECOME SHORTER.
ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI
MOVING BIT TO THE SOUTH OF DUE EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM IT
SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF US, GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF 1.7" TO 1.9" THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS. THIS BRINGS
HEAT INDICES BACK INTO PLAY, AS THEY RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
107 OVER PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. MOST OF THE MODELS DID NOT CATCH THE
SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT THE SPC VIEW OF THE HREF DID. SO HAVE ADDED
LOW POPS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW DOWNBURST-TYPE WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE
MIXING OF THE LOWER LEVELS FROM DAYTIME HEATING, AND MORE CLOUDS
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAT TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY THIS GO AROUND.
SHOWERS SHOULD FADE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEARING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING LOWER END RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. STAYED WITH THE BLENDS OUTPUT, WHICH KEEP THE SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE TN/AL BORDER. THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
SHOULD THEY MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTH, WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
OF THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE, THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE
IT COULD BE THE MOST INTERESTING, WITH A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED
YET, A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW YET AGAIN
WILL SPARK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS TIME, MODEST INSTABILITY AND EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME IN SEEING SEVERE
STORMS, BUT IF MONDAY WAS ANY INDICATOR, IT'S DEFINITELY AN
OPTION ON THE TABLE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIMEFRAME FOR
ANY FORECAST SHIFTS/TWEAKS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE OR
THE INCREASING/DECREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT MAY AID IN BETTER
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THIS TIME LAST WEEKEND
WHEN WE SAW HEAT ADVISORY/EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS WEEKEND WON'T EVEN CRACK THE
CENTURY MARK, TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 95F.
RAIN RETURNS BY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
LOWER 60S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE AL)!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE AT KMSL AND KHSV. GIVEN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING LOW CLOUD/FOG FORMATION INCREASING, WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG IMPACTING A TERMINAL. ANY FOG THAT
FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AROUND 5KT, THEN VEER TO THE NE-E IN
THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NW AL THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...RSB
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