874
FXUS64 KHUN 142323
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS MAY BE OBSERVED TODAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WE HAVE HIT RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH
HSV AND MSL CURRENTLY SIT AT 91 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LUCKILY HUMIDITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
HIGHER THAN THE MID 90S MITIGATING A LARGER CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IT'S GOING TO BE HOT TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE HIGH 80S TO THE LOW 90S BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH THAT
ARE BOTH CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SUPPORT BROAD SCALE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE A VERY HOT AND MUGGY DAY. BE
SURE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE HEAT PRECAUTIONS IF YOU ARE GOING TO
SPEND TIME OUTSIDE, DON'T LET THE TIME OF YEAR PUT YOU OFF GUARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE VALLEY AREAS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL AL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR MID-OCTOBER, POTENTIALLY BREAKING THE
RECORD DAILY HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AT HSV (88 SET IN 1947) AND MSL (91
SET IN 2015) ON THURSDAY. THANKFULLY, DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHICH WILL
MITIGATE A LARGER THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. ASIDE FROM THE
HEAT, IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE HEAT, THERE IS RELIEF ON THE WAY! AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY ON FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT.
WE WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30MPH AT TIMES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE, WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COOL, DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH TEMPERATURES AS THEY
WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY POST FRONTAL WINDS OUT OF THE NNE WILL REINFORCE THIS AIR
MASS AS HIGHS WILL BE VERY NOTABLY LOWER ON SATURDAY AND ONLY PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND LOWS AGAIN DROPPING TO THE 40S.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AND VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO MODIFY THE AIR
MASS INITIALLY AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND,
THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...HC
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