612
FXUS64 KHUN 071108
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE COOLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE DUE TO DEW POINTS RANGING BETWEEN 69-73 DEGREES. SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
SEEN BY THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO SURFACE STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SO FAR. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
MORNING, AS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG REMAINS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHETHER THIS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. REGARDLESS, ANY FOG WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TODAY'S
FORECAST. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S ARE ALSO FORECAST, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. ALTHOUGH THE CRITERIA IS NOT MET FOR THE
ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY, PLEASE REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY AS IT
WILL STILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY. MAKE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE
OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM, HUMID DAYS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%)
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEAKENS/DISSIPATES BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE WILL
LOWER RAIN CHANCES TEMPORAILY ON SUNDAY (10-30%), WITH HEAT COMING
TO THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
100 TO 105 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON (THANKS TO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE). AS A RESULT, HEAT/HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF OUR MESSAGING. EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES) IN
MOST LOCATIONS. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
CATEGORY.
COINCIDING WITH THESE HEAT CONCERNS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PRIMED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FOG HAS YET TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MUCH SO FAR THIS MORNING;
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF AT LEAST MVFR VIS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z. THEREFORE, MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT BOTH SITES. ANY FOG WILL THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THE MAIN
FOCUS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, ANY
STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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