023
FXUS64 KHUN 271058
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 938 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A DECAYING MCS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO S IL WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MORNING LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID
80S. LATEST CAM RUNS SHOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS W TN INTO N MS ALONG A THETA-E GRADIENT. HOWEVER, THESE
SHOULD NOT REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD
INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TAKE SOME TIME TODAY WHILE THE WEATHER
IS NICE TO MAKE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
MUCH MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE DETAILS IN THE
FOLLOWING SECTION.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CAPPING INVERSION WHICH THE NAM SEEMS
TO KEEP HOLDING ONTO WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL TUESDAY
POTENTIALLY. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAP
WILL NOT HOLD OFF STORMS THAT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS KY WESTERN TN INTO AR.
CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTH AL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS 8H WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY AND SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, CAMS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. CLUSTERS OF
SUPERCELL CONVECTION SHOULD ERUPT OVER MO AND AR AND SPREAD EAST
INTO KY, TN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS EVOLVE
INTO A POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE MID SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THAT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND AL
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH A DECENT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ALL THIS BEING SAID, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE, SO MORE CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SHAPE UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A FEW WEAKER WAVE DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS REMAINS LOW AND LIKELY WILL UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 05Z AND QUICKLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...GH
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