757
FXUS64 KHUN 291855
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-90%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS),
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST REASONING
SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 20-22Z, AS LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REGION-WIDE EARLY THIS EVENING, AS
CONVECTION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MS ENTERS THE REGION AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS (PERHAPS UP
TO 40 MPH), LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS EVENING CONVECTION BEGINS TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND FOG (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE) AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE M-U 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A WEAK BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTED 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER-MS VALLEY TODAY, PROVIDING A
MODEST INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A LENGTHY AXIS OF STREAMLINE
CONFLUENCE WILL EXIST FROM MO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
AND INTO SOUTHERN GA ALONG THE INTERFACE OF EASTERLY FLOW (RELATED
TO A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES) AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW (RELATED TO A SMALL LOW OVER AR AND STRONGER LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CO).
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, WITHIN A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS
LAYER PERMIT LIMITED INSOLATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH THE
BROADER CONFLUENCE AXIS AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AS CAPE RISES
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE (PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS). CELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME
AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE), BUT DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW, THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LOWER, THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE FLOW AROUND AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. STEERING FLOW, HOWEVER, WILL VEER TO THE
WEST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH CELLS TRAVELING EASTWARD AND EXITING
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL INTO THE L-M 60S AND WINDS
SUBSIDE, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A
REINFORCING DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL FORCE A LENGTHY LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOMORROW IN THE FORM OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF MINOR HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE (THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING), SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO AN ABUNDANT COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING, CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY. HOWEVER, AS MID-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 25-30
KNOT RANGE, A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP,
INCREASING THE RISK FOR STRONG/SPS-CALIBER WIND GUSTS.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PREDICTED TO ADVECT
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
AL PERHAPS REACHING THE L60S EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, AS MINOR COLD AIR DAMMING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS IN MIND, CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA (WHERE POPS REMAIN IN THE 60-70% RANGE AT THE CURRENT
TIME). WITH THE DRY AIRMASS BEING REINFORCED ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE U50S EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG TERM, MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THIS
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPRESS ON HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND BRING IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON.
LIKEWISE, THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUR CURRENT MUGGY
DEW POINTS FURTHER SOUTH, REPLACING THEM WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. MODERATE TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
LOCAL RADAR DATA INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CELLULAR CONVECTION
(MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING) NOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTACT AT
BOTH AIRPORTS, AND THAT TSRA WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR HSV
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE CELLS EVENTUALLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AS IF
LOW CLOUDS MAY TEMPORARILY DISPERSE AROUND 0Z, CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY ACROSS AR) SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM MS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN EASTWARD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THUS, WE HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA AT MSL/0-6Z AND HSV/2-8Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN THE
WAKE OF LATE EVENING PRECIPITATION, VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
BR/FG APPEAR LIKELY EARLY SAT MORNING, WITH DIURNAL MIXING
PROMOTING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page