915
FXUS64 KHUN 260504
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BRINGING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAVE MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WELCOMED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY "CLEAR" SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING BY WILL ALLOW NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
50S (LOWER 50S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST). HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN
THE LOCAL AND REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE, ALONG WITH MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, SOMETHING THAT WE WILL MONITOR
REGARDING A POTENTIAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WITH A STRONG LATE APRIL SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S (WITH A FEW MID 80S IN THE WARMER SPOTS). LIGHT
WINDS BECOME NE 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
PLUS THE DAYTIME HEATING COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
OVER NW ALABAMA IN THE AFTERNOON, SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS
NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR MAINLY ON OUR WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT, OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A
TAD WARMER FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST. A DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE NE WHILE DEEPENING INTO A SUB
1000MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW, WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WITH THE NAM
SHOWING NOTHING UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE GFS, CANADIAN,
ECMWF INDICATING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING. THESE SPECTRAL MODELS ALL INDICATED
ELEVATED CAPE AND HELICITY PRIMARILY OVER NW ALABAMA. AS SUCH, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NW QUARTER OF OUR AREA,
ROUGHLY FROM MOORE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THEN FROM NW MADISON
COUNTY TO WEST OF FRANKLIN COUNTY AL IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY TN TO CULLMAN
COUNTY, AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS NE ALABAMA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THIS HAS CONTINUED
TRENDING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MAKING A SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL MORE DANGEROUS (AS MOST OF THE POPULATION IS
SLEEPING WHEN THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED).
THIS FIRST EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS
WE GO INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S. HOWEVER, MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THOSE THREE MODELS AGAIN WERE TO VARIOUS DEGREES SHOWING ELEVATED
SEVERE PARAMETERS, WITH EVEN GREATER TIMING DIFFERENCES, FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE NIGHT. MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, WITH MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RESIDENTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY CURRENT
WITH THE LATEST THINKING REGARDING THIS UPCOMING SEVERE EVENT,
WITH SOME OF OCCURRING IN THE LATE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY.
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NW. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS, SOME
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD RUNOFF CAUSE RISES
IN AREAS RIVERS AND STREAMS. WITH CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S.
NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS AROUND 50. THE COOLER TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. A BIT COOLER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. DESPITE THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, IT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE SE STATES,
AS WELL AS UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TERMINALS. FOG
CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IN PLACES
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TERMINALS DID
NOT SEE MUCH RAIN YESTERDAY THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES REACH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001-
005>010-016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH
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