420
FXUS64 KHUN 240521
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 936 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF DENSE FOG ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING
- LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
TONIGHT, THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DENSE FOG AS CALM WINDS AND LOW
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALIGN OVER THE TN VALLEY. WHILE SKIES WILL
NOT BE FULLY CLEAR, CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO BE HIGH IN
ALTITUDE WITHOUT THE ABILITY TO STRONGLY DISSUADE FOG FORMATION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE ONE WILL BE ISSUED
OVERNIGHT. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE BY USING
LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND INCREASING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS.
WEDNESDAY, THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COEXISTING MCS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THIS
ACTIVITY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, NEWER CAMS
KEEP THE ACTIVITY DIVING INTO THE GULF REGION WITH THE TN VALLEY
MOSTLY REMAINING DRY. POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS LOW CHANCES (20% OR
LESS) PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS
THAT VENTURE MORE NORTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY ALONG
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SNEAK IN THURSDAY MORNING,
CAUSING LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS (AIDED BY MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW). NO STRONG NOR SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH MINOR INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY WARM,
HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE AND THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AMPLE
SUNSHINE EACH DAY WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES EACH DAY,
AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. SHOULD
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
NEXT WEEK -- ESPECIALLY FACTORING THE VERY LIMITED RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT (LOWS IN THE MID 70S). NWS HEAT RISK VALUES HIGHLIGHT A
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN MAJOR RISK FOR THIS TIMEFRAME,
MEANING THAT THIS HEAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANYONE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
(ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION) AS WELL AS SOME
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS
STAYING HYDRATED AND SEEKING SHADE WHEN OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY WITHING 1 DEGREE OR LESS OF THE TEMPERATURES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE IMPACTED BY THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WEAK ADVECTION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
NE MAY HELP TO HINDER DENSE FOG MORE SO EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
DESPITE THIS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 8Z. WITH LESS MODIFICATION VIA LOWER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AT KMSL, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KMSL
BOTTOMING OUT VSBYS BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z AT 1/2SM. MAY HAVE TO AMEND
AT KHSV LATER TO DO THE SAME, BUT CONFIDENCE THERE IS NOT AS
HIGH. AFTER 14Z, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 1-3. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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