939
FXUS64 KHUN 250615
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
115 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 TO 109 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
OTHER THAN A FEW BANDS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ROUGHLY 5-8 DEGREES, THINK THAT IT WILL BE A LOT TOUGHER TO GET
FOG TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MAY
STILL DEVELOP IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS, BUT IT WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A REMNANT MCV OVER THE OZARKS WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. AMPLE
SUNSHINE/HEATING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS TEXAS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. A COUPLE OF STORM COMPLEXES MAY TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY (MID-MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS). HOWEVER, OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUD COVER (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES), THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DEVOID
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT
THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE THIS WEEK. AMPLE SUNSHINE,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS (WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES). THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD OBSERVE COMMON SENSE HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A VERY WARM, HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL CREATE MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT IMPACTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH,
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
EACH DAY (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S (WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY). THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-109 DEGREES EACH DAY. HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FACTORING THE VERY LIMITED RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT (LOWS
IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S).
NWS HEAT RISK VALUES HIGHLIGHT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN
MAJOR RISK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NWS
HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS AN EXTREME RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THESE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS, MEAN THAT THIS HEAT WILL
AFFECT EVERYONE, ESPECIALLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. HEALTH SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE HEATWAVE BUILDS WITH NO RELIEF OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, IT IS
ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS STAYING
HYDRATED AND MOVING/REMAINING INDOORS IN AIR CONDITIONING DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
SOME PASSING VERY THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER. CALM WINDS OR VERY LIGHT
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS ARE 2 OR 3 DEGREES. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MOST GUIDANCE FORECAST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST ABOVE 1000 MB. THE SETUP FOR SOME FOG LOOKS TO BE A TAD
BETTER AT KMSL BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 12Z AT KMSL. BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z, SOME FORCING ALOFT MAY HELP TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER DISSIPATING
ANY FOG. THUS, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KMSL FOR 4SM VSBYS BETWEEN
8Z AND 12Z. A WINDOW FOR SIMILAR VSBYS DROPS DUE TO FOG MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED AT KHSV VIA AN AMENDMENT LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z. VERY LOW 15-25% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AFTER 15Z WITH THE MENTIONED EASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORCING MOVING INTO WESTERN CENTRAL AL IN THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, LEAVING THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 2-4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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