200
FXUS64 KHUN 021106
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 252 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 110-114F. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY-7 PM FRIDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (MAINLY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
- THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A DANGEROUS HEATWAVE CONTINUES TODAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TODAY WILL ESSENTIALLY
BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS COUPLED WITH
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (SOME WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE). EARLY THIS MORNING WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS. ANY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. AMPLE MORNING SUNSHINE WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN
TODAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S, WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 110-114
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS LEVEL 3
OF 4 (MAJOR RISK) TO LEVEL 4 OF 4 (EXTREME RISK) ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY. THUS, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. PLEASE
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TODAY -- STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AS MENTIONED ABOVE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THANKS TO A WEAK PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL MOST
DEFINITELY FAVOR DOWNBURSTS GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 9 C/KM, DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, MLCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG, PWATS AROUND 2", AND A PRONOUNCED
INVERTED-V PROFILE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP MAY BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING STRIGHT-LINE
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO VA/NC AS A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF,
AND FOR THIS REASON, STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER AS WE MOVE FORWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SMALL
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TOMORROW EVENING, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 2-4Z,
LEAVING ANOTHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT FEATURING LOWS IN THE L-M 70S
FRIDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR NORTH/EAST, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE
PROPELLED WESTWARD INTO OUR CWFA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
DUE TO WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW, COVERAGE MAY BE CONFINED TO A
SMALLER PORTION OF NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN BEFORE
DISSIPATION OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS) THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CARRY A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OFF THE COAST OF NC, AND WITH LESS IMPACTS FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A GREATER SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BEGIN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY (PERHAPS AIDED BY ASCENT FROM A MORE DEFINED EASTERLY
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW
AND LIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO AL/MS THIS WEEKEND) AND COULD ALSO
EXTEND FURTHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CONVECTION
FROM STORMS ACROSS MO/IL/IN MAY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. FORTUNATELY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
TO THE WEST OF THE 500-MB RIDGE AND TO THE EAST OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THIS WILL LESSEN
THE RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GRADUALLY FALLING BACK INTO THE L-M 90S BY
SATURDAY, WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN
THE MID-LEVELS (LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST) WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SW TO WSW
FLOW, PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES TRAVEL ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
MAY KEEP OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
LOWER AT OUR LATITUDE, WE WILL ADVERTISE A 40-60% POP (MAINLY
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND SUB-SEVERE, WITH
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
U80S-L90S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT RISK DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-01Z. SHOULD A TSRA IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL,
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AND AWWS AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24
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