402
FXUS64 KHUN 122338
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF WINDOW
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO SOCIETAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE A GOOD
EVENING/NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COLLING ONCE WE LOSE THE SUN IN THIS
COOL AIR MASS -- WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY,
EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. IN FACT, WITH SW/WSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (WITH
LOWS ACTUALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S). THESE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO HINDER HEATING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME WSW FLOW
SHOULD STILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S PLAUSIBLE BEFORE THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES -- LIKELY IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE,
SWITCHING THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY MID TO LATE MORNING --
WITH LOW-MEDIUM POPS (20-70%) GENERALLY IN THE FORECAST BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH
THE AREA. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND AROUND
0.25" OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SOME LOW CHANCES (20-30%) NOTED
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THESE LOW POPS WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND/OR SNOW FLURRIES
DURING THIS WINDOW. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SOCIETAL IMPACTS OR
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND A LIGHT DUSTY (ON GRASSY SURFACE) -- AND ONLY
IN A VERY FEW ELEVATED LOCATIONS. AS FOR ROADS, THE BRIEF WINDOW
AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, STILL FAIRLY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY WINDS (WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OFF ROADS),
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALSO FILTERS IN. THIS
WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 20S BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THERE'S NO OTHER WAY TO SAY IT: THURSDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY.
DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK (WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
BEING COMMON).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND THAT SHOULD BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT, DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT AS IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, BUT KEEP IT MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, A
FEW MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. KEPT WITH NBM GUIDANCE ON THE DRIER SIDE,
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR IF THE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ~17-18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
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