461
FXUS64 KHUN 300221
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
921 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50%-80%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT HAS
BROUGHT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN CO. AL, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 3-4 DEGREES OR HIGHER SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FOG AT BAY
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S BY TOMORROW MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE FARTHER TOWARD THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH LOWER THAN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. IN FACT,
FOR LATE JULY IT SHOULD FEEL MORE PLEASANT OUTSIDE AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS STAY NEAR OR BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK AND RH VALUES IN THE
50S AND 40S KEEP HEAT INDICES TOPPED IN THE LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHES GULF MOISTURE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR ON FRIDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THIS UPPER LOW/WAVE WILL STALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS HAPPENS,
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
RIGHT NOW WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS OF 2.2-2.3" AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1" LOOK REASONABLE. RIGHT NOW WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH MODERATE BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY IS LIKELY ACROSS
SOME PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING STORMS AND HOW RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT STORM EVOLUTION IS ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AS WELL AS WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THAT BEING SAID, IT IS STILL SUMMER AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
THAT LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING MAY PRIME THE STAGE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE PRIMARY TALKING POINT FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION. A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., BRINGING AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR
COVERAGE AREA. IN RESPONSE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65 (THOUGH THIS DEPENDS ON EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN). RECENT ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
THEREFORE HAS INCREASED OUR CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE
AREA. AT THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE AREA ALONG WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VAR
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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