097
FXUS64 KHUN 071019
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF AND IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE AL/FL COASTLINE. ISAIAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINING A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS AND A LOW RISK OF FLOODING TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WAS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SUNNY DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 AND LOWER 80S EAST
OF I-65 (COOLER ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MID TO LATE WORK
WEEK, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE, REINFORCING THIS DRIER AIR MASS. AS A
RESULT OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE, THURSDAY WILL BE AN
EVEN WARMER DAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, BUT THERE WILL
BE AN UPWARD TREND, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S LOWS BEING COMMON.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIG TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PIVOT TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF, TOWARD THE MS/AL/FL COAST.
THOUGH NO IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY -- A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WON'T IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER TOO
MUCH AS ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL CHANGE
OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATE AT 514 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026...
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED AS OF THE 09Z UPDATE. A FASTER
MOVEMENT AND TRACK THROUGH AL INTO MIDDLE TN IS NOW FORECAST,
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACTFUL GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
POTENTIAL HURRICANE WEAKENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF OUTER BANDS OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE FASTER MOVEMENT. THE FASTER MOVEMENT MAY LESSEN RESIDENCE TIME
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD KEEP THE FLOOD RISK LOW.
NEVERTHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW RISK OF FLOODING DUE
TO TROPICAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
AND WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY WPC FOR DAYS 3-4.
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AS NOTED ABOVE, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED IN THE GULF AND
WILL BE THE FEATURE OF FOCUS THAT WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS STORM IS OFFICIALLY FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO (AND EVENTUALLY COMES ASHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING), IT WILL BE INTERACTING AND
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TROPICAL
WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY INTO A
DEPRESSION OR LOWER BY THE TIME IT MOVES THIS FAR NORTH. HOWEVER,
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL
ADIVOSRY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE IMPORTANT. IF IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND THEN SWINGS NORTH OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS, THIS WOULD PLACE OUR AREA IN THE DEVELOPING DRY
SLOT -- LOWERING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND KEEPING ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TROPICAL TORNADO THREAT TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, IT IT WERE TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER WEST, WITH THE
REMNANT CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI,
THIS COULD PUT US IN LINE FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AND AT
LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE TRACK WILL
COME TO LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM FORMS AND ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, RESIDENTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SHOULD BE AWARE AND PREPARED FOR A POTENTIALLY WINDY/RAINY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND STAY TUNED AND UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION -- ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17/AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...17
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