226
FXUS64 KHUN 041145
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SEEN ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING,
ONE OF WHICH PRODUCED A CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE BUT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. LOW STRATUS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
OVER NW AL, BUT AREAS EAST OF I-65 MAY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING WHERE THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT UPDATE, AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SLOW MOVING FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS, WHICH SAT JUST SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER EARLIER THIS EVENING, HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A LOW
STRATUS DECK THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS MS AND
WESTERN TN. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE GIVEN THE LOW
CEILINGS AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOUD COVER ALSO WILL HELP
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE IF ANY
CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH IS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG ITS BASE.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT A TROPICAL
AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE AFORMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE TREND IN THE CAMS
DOES APPEAR TO BE MOVING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. WE ALSO CANNOT NOT RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GIVEN AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE. THAT BEING
SAID, GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS, THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE HIGH RAIN RATES THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL ACCUMULATION
TOMORROW WILL BE BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
2 INCHES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW BRINGING ANOTHER
TASTE OF FALL TO THE LOCAL AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL QUITE NICE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION. AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING A SE FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND HELP CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DESPITE THE DAYS
GETTING SHORTER PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AUTUMN, ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGHS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP UP A TAD BOTH THU AND FRI, WITH
HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS WED AND THU NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THOSE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS, TO
THE MID 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES
BY FRI, OCT 9TH ARE AROUND 79/55.
THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE GULF REGION WAS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ALSO BRING LOWER END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY - RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S, AND HIGHS ON SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT THE
KMSL TERMINAL WHILE KHSV HAS VARIED BETWEEN VFR TO IFR. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
MADE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS CHANGE DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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