410
FXUS64 KHUN 052230
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SETS UP BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY
THEN TAPERING OUT IN THE EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST, AS THINGS REMAIN ON
TRACK. CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST OF I-65 AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-65 (UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE
MUSCLE SHOALS AREA). ALTHOUGH NOT SWELTERING OUTSIDE, IT IS STILL
A GOOD IDEA TO MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS
IN THE SHADE IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
EVEN WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST
OF I-65 AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-65. IT WON'T BE SUPER
MUGGY OUTSIDE, BUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT
WINDS (LESS THAN 10 MPH) ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TODAY, BECOMING
NEAR CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE FORECAST
WINDS, THINKING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND LARGER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL HINDER MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH,
THERE MAY STILL BE INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
LASTLY, LOW TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ANOTHER, MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN SWINGS INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE FRONT SLIDES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY UNTIL VERY LATE INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCES THEN INCREASE TO BE MEDIUM TO HIGH
(40-80%) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH MODELS SHOWING INSTABILITY RANGING BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG OR SO DURING THE DAY, BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS (PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON). FURTHERMORE, MODEL HODOGRAPHS DON'T
LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. ON THE OTHER HAND, MODEL PWATS ARE FAIRLY HIGH,
RANGING BETWEEN 1.9-2.1 INCHES ON SUNDAY. THESE VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.7 INCHES), SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL THEREFORE BE CONCERNS, WHICH CORRELATES TO WPC'S
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING, LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ON SUNDAY. STAY WEATHER AWARE
(ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES) AND REMEMBER, WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! SEE A FLASH, DASH INSIDE! IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
LASTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO ADVECT IN A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS IS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S BY SUNDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
(40-80% CHANCE), WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THAT WILL CLIP OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT,
ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY JUNE AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SE. A SCATTERED CU FIELD AROUND 4 KFT
WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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