294
FXUS64 KHUN 250359
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
UPDATE
FOR 06Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
THE THICK CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH PROVIDED A PICTURESQUE SUNSET LOCALLY
HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN. WILL MAKE SKY
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BEFORE THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THE CAMS
AND 18Z NAM STILL INDICATE WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
IN NORTHWEST AL BETWEEN 09-12Z. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTHWEST TN WHERE STRONGER -DIVQ, LLJ
AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND NEW
MODEL DATA, BUT AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD BESIDES UPDATING THE NEAR TERM SKY TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
THE ABOVE NOTED SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY IS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW IN THE 995MB RANGE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NW MISSOURI, WITH CONVECTION FORMING SOUTH OF IT. THE LOW
ITSELF SHOULD HEAD TO THE ENE, REACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY,
AND OVER LAKE ERIE BY THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE
LOW WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST, REACHING NW ALABAMA IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING TOMORROW, AND RAPIDLY SWEEP TO THE EAST, BEING EAST OF
THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS, MAINLY OVER NW ALABAMA
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS, ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MON SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN MON NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THAT DAY
WITH HIGHS A BIT COOLER IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. NOT AS COOL TUE NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER POWER HOUSE SYSTEM NOW
MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY DYNAMIC WX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CNTRL TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION, BEFORE IT LIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES HAVE
THIS SYSTEM SWEEPING EWD THRU THE REGION DURING THE DAY WED, WITH NUM
SHOWERS & STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. SHEAR IS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATENT
INSTABILITY THOUGH MAY BE CUTOFF MORE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. RAINFALL WILL TAPER
OFF WED EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH A DEEP UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO ROTATE THRU THE REGION WILL BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOLER
AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MID WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TRENDING 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 11-13Z BEFORE CEILINGS OF
020-030AGL (MVFR) MOVE IN, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA MOVE INTO
THE AREA. A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO
HAVE LEFT OUT OF BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM 15-17Z, WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING BELOW 010AGL (IFR) FOR A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD. THEN, THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
AND THE SKY CLEARING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...17
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