341
FXUS64 KHUN 251953
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EROSION AND A SHIFT EASTWARD WAS
TAKING PLACE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
THROUGH WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS. THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TREND AS WELL, SO EXPECTING A RAPID CLEARING
TREND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
FLOW EXPECTED. THUS, FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 30-33F RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO TEND TO FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL, SO WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SKY COVERAGE FOR
THIS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHEAR OUT A BIT AS IT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN
MS/AL. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT
THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHWEST TN THAT MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL BY
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MODEST DPVA ARRIVE, THE RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR A PERIOD, BEFORE
SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT, RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN NORTHWEST
AL AND SOUTHERN TN TO JUST UNDER 1/4 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF, BECOMING MORE
NEUTRAL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR IF AT ALL, SO HAVE DROPPED SUGGESTED MODEL BLEND HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY THANKS TO ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND A WEAK/BROAD RIDGING PATTERN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM THE BENIGN PATTERN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TX AND AND PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD ALONG
(OR SOUTH) OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK
LOW, AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AND LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
BY THURSDAY, MORE ZONAL FLOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE E TO SE AND HELP TO SLIGHTLY PUSH SOME
EXCESS MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE N.
GULF COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO LATE JAN. NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020
CEILINGS OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21-22Z
BEFORE EITHER LIFTING TO ~035AGL (VFR) OR SCATTERING/CLEARING.
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HOWEVER, AND THE CLOUDS COULD TEND
TO LINGER AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ON SUNDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 060AGL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...BARRON
AVIATION...17
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