656
FXUS64 KHUN 011938
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
238 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME AREAS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 88 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED AND LIKELY ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING 94 DEGREES TODAY. SOME GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 3 OR 4 PM BEFORE DECREASING. HOWEVER,
EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE 90 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE BEFORE THE
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA MAKING FOR A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG AT
BAY, BUT A FEW FOG PRONE LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING OVER THE AREA CHANGES LITTLE. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. BETTER
FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THAT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PRIMARILY. HOWEVER, SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING
WITH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN. HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 93
OR 94 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE AS DEWPOINT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING
INT SATURDAY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS, MEANING THAT A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY (THANKS TO PWATS NEAR 2").
AS WE MOVE FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, A SECOND IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS STRONGER
FORCING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SHOULD SHIFT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR
SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2026
IN IT'S WAKE, EXPECT A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
MEAN BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN OCTOBER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW
MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED CHANCE (~ 20%)
WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AREA EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD
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