918
FXUS64 KHUN 241144
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 959 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE GREATER
NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, WITH RATHER DEEP TROUGHING IN PLACE OFF OF
THE WEST COAST, WHILE UPPER RIDGING PREVAILED OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE HEIGHTS HAS PRODUCED ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEED OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE (~6000 FT AGL)
ACCOMPANIED BY PASSING WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
295K REGION, WAS PRODUCING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS EARLIER MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NE
ALABAMA, THEN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THESE CLOUDS HELPED TO ALLEVIATE FOG THAT WAS FORMING ACROSS PARTS
OF NW ALABAMA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED MOVING TO THE
SE ACROSS PARTS THE VALLEY. GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE,
DID NOT OPT FOR SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH SHOULD THEY FORM.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS (FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE) REIGNED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 4 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S AND LIGHT WINDS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS, ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 53 DEGREES. OLD RECORD HIGHS TODAY OF 78/1964 MUSCLE SHOALS
AND 76/2015 HUNTSVILLE WILL LIKELY SURVIVE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE SLOW AND MINOR, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER (NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S, LOWS IN THE MID 30S) AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BOTH CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. IN FACT,
LOWS WILL BE EVEN WARMER, ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, WE MAY TIE OR BREAK
RECORD HIGHS AT HSV (73/2016) AND MSL (73/2016) ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LAST OF THE STRING UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
ASSESS STABILITY TRENDS AS WE MOVE CLOSER GIVEN THE STRONG BULK
SHEAR. BUT AT THIS TIME, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, BUT STAY
TUNED. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY,
THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 20S SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE HELD TO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, DIMINISHING GREATLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS COVERING A PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CLOUD BASES WERE VFR, A FEW AREAS HAD MVFR CIG. A FEW
LOCATIONS FURTHER TO OUR WEST WERE BEING IMPACTED BY FOG
(OCCURRING BECAUSE THESE CLOUDS FADED). DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
S-SW FLOW BEGINNING A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RSB
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