754
FXUS64 KHUN 051835
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, WITH A LOW RISK OF A TORNADO OR
TWO.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH A LOW
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA,
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE VIA THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF MEMPHIS ARE TRYING TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, NEWEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATING. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION ARE VERY HIGH 10 TO 15 DEGREES AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS.
THIS WILL WORK AGAINST THE PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
AS IT PUSHES EAST AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE AREA,
SOME LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN EXTREME NW AL
AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN BEFORE IT DISSIPATES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON (NOON TO 2 PM). EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LESS THAN
0.3 INCHES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND NOON
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS REGARDLESS. THIS SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS
SLIGHTLY, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GUIDANCE MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT THROUGH WEAK
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ESE THIS EVENING INTO INDIANA AND ILLINOIS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THIS TROUGH AXIS IS,
CONVECTION WILL INTIMATE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE BETTER FORCING DOESEN'T PUSH INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 1 AM IN MOST GUIDANCE. NOT SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY IN MOST
GUIDANCE. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD, BUT JUST EXPECTING RAIN AND ELEVATED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO MAINLY AFFECT NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND STRONG FORCING, A GOOD
0.5 TO 1.0 INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS THROUGH 2 PM ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS DISTURBANCE EAST INTO GEORGIA AROUND
1 PM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DROP OFF.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOP ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AMPLIFIES OVER SE COLORADO, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SWINGS
SOUTHEAST PROVIDING A MECHANISM FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THIS
SETUPS UP VERY DEEP AND STRONG FORCING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 4
PM ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SHOWN AND PWATS STILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SURFACE BASED CAPE RECOVERS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG (MAYBE A BIT MORE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE AREA. THUS, THERE REMAINS A
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAHIL. A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE THREAT MAY
END A BIT EARLIER IF WE LOSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL DEVELOP. GIVEN
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, NOT SURE HOW MUCH FLOODING WE WILL SEE, BUT
SOME IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF THE LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OCCURS). MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE RAIN
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LINGERING
CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR AS THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER SHOT OF PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS SHOULD LOWER BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS BACK TO A ZONAL PATTERN INTO
THE WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING TROUGH AXIS RACES EAST FROM IOWA INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTHWEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, A NEW COLD FRONT DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVES EAST FORWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA. MODELS DIVERGE WHETHER THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE
OUR AREA MORE AND ADD INCREASED AND DEEP FORCING TO AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD BE A PERIOD WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR STRONGER STORMS AND A POTENTIAL FLOODING RISK
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOME -SHRA WILL OCCUR AT KMSL THROUGH 19Z, BUT ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. FURTHER EAST, NOT SURE
VIRGA WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND THAT FAR EAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO BECOME PREDOMINANT WITH SOME -SHRA. A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED
(HSV - 10Z TO 14Z AND KMSL 08Z - 12Z) FRO -TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS AS
WELL AS CIGS. IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page