506
FXUS64 KHUN 171606
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- A BREEZY/VERY COOL DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A SLOW WARM UP TO MORE TYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH) WILL
LAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS IN A
FEW WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST
AL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
PESKY CLOUD COVER CONTINUES HOLD ON (PARTICULARLY IN NE AL) AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BETWEEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER, HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED AND SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOOKING AT MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, BELIEVE NBM DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
EXPECT SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LATE MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AND SURFACE ADVECTION UPSTREAM.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AS A RESULT.
N TO NNE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT, BUT MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
NE ALABAMA. IN THOSE AREAS, COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FROST.
DUE TO ITS EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. IF FORECAST TRENDS FOR WINDS WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED
TONIGHT, A FROST PRODUCT MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 39 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS. IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NE ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SOME LOWS COULD DROP TO BETWEEN 36 AND
39 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY IN MOST GUIDANCE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS, WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, AS EVEN BETTER MIXING OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A LONGER PERIOD ON SUNDAY. RH
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. JUST A TAD WARMER LOWS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 38 AND 46 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A BIT MORE OF
AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT UPSTREAM, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST BIT LIGHTER FROM THE E
OR ESE. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
PRIMARILY). THIS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
FROST AT BAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WARMUP DROPPING INTO THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL LARGELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND INTO THE SOUTH THIS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH THIS NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY LATE WEEK AS THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE THE REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. ULTIMATELY, IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO GRAB AT LEAST
A LIGHT JACKET WHEN HEADING OUT THE DOOR THIS WEEK!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
BKN DECKS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT
BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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