265
FXUS64 KHUN 280315
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA. FURTHER EAST, THIS THREAT
WILL LINGER UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SOLID HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH IS FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A LOW-END THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS DISCRETE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN MS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 3KM, NOTED IN
THE EARLIER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM BMX AND OHX. RECENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY HAVE WARMED ENOUGH IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO ERODE THIS CAP AND ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST STORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
RECENT 00Z OHX AND BMX SOUNDINGS, CAPPING IN THE 1-3KM LAYER WILL
LIKELY WIN OUT OVER NORTHERN AL FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL THE
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID,
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER NORTHERN MS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND SPC HAS ISSUED
A TORNADO WATCH OVER FAR NW AL TO COVER THE THREAT BOTH FOR ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING,
TALLER UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN MS OVER THE PAST
HOUR AND HAVE BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. SO FAR, CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS CLOSER TO THE
AL/MS STATE LINE HAVE NOT BEEN SUSTAINABLE WHERE STORMS OVER NW
MS HAVE HAD BETTER LONGEVITY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, ANY
STORMS THAT FORM AND ARE ROOTED AT THE SFC AND REMAIN DISCRETE MAY
QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
TORNADOES.
THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY NW AL WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI GRADUALLY CONGEALS INTO AN MCS
AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE AREA. AS THIS COMPLEX EVOLVES, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
TRANSITION MORE TOWARD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, THOUGH
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WILL BE A KEY
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE.
WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RESIDENTS SHOULD ENSURE THEY HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY METHODS CAPABLE OF WAKING
THEM UP WHILE SLEEPING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD
ABOVE A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
INTO TN VALLEY REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WHILE MAINTAINING RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN DISCRETE STORMS/CLUSTERS EAST OF A DRYLINE FEATURE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION,
PARTICULARLY AS THE PROGRESSION AND EVENTUAL IMPACTS OF TONIGHT'S
STORMS MAY INFLUENCE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, INSTABILITY RECOVERY,
AND STORM MODE AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION COULD ALTER WHERE THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS AND MAY RESULT IN
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST SEVERE
THREAT IN LATER FORECASTS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS
OR A LINE/MCS OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS WOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER
TORNADOES IF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS CAN BE REALIZED. IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HOLD, THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY SHIFT TOWARD DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH THE OVERNIGHT MCS, THOUGH EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY FORM WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER
WEAKER INSTABILITY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND ENSURE THEY HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND COOLER TEMPS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF
CIN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW FOR NOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
1" FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ON PAR WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR RISES ON
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S-70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BIT OF A COMPLEX TAF FORECAST AS CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
HIGH (VFR) WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO OUR WEST CREATING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
TORNADO LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
GUSTING UP TO 25KTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AS HIGH AS 55KTS
WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOST LIKELY DURING HEAVIER STORMS. MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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