639
FXUS64 KHUN 010853
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST, BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED DECKS OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TOWARD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW VERY LIGHT
POCKETS OF RAIN AND SPRINKLES WERE NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR JUST TO
OUR NORTH, BUT THINK THIS IS LIKELY FALLING AS VIRGA. CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
PLENTY OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE DAY (CLOSER TO A COLD FRONT), HOWEVER, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THIS SECOND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
STRONGER FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. STRONG ENOUGH FORCING
MAY EXTEND JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER AROUND 9 PM AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 75 DEGREES, BUT WITHOUT THE CLOUD COVER WE
WOULD BE LIKELY TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ENE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT BUILDS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BREAK FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 73 TO
78 DEGREE RANGE AT LEAST IN RESPONSE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SSW FLOW BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BEGINS PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC DOESN'T WANT TO BUDGE MUCH. DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. FOR
NOW KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WEAKENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA.
SBCAPE IS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, HELICITY IS WEAK AS
WELL IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MAINLY EXPECTING RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IF WE REALIZE CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AT TIMES THIS MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS, NO FOG IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS WITH WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER 16Z AT THE TERMINALS, AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
NEAR THE TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 7TH THROUGH 11TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
7TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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