707
FXUS64 KHUN 041143
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY, DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-80% FROM SUNDAY-FRIDAY (HIGHEST ON MONDAY).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HAPPY JULY 4TH! SOME OF US ARE STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH PATCHY
FOG THANKS TO MOISTURE IN PLACE, CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, SO BE SURE TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT LIFTS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
DANGEROUS HEATWAVE CONTINUES, SO PLEASE ENSURE YOU ARE BEING SAFE
OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
BUT THE HEAT INDEX WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT'S 100-108 DEGREES.
MOST OF THE TN VALLEY REMAINS IN A LEVEL 3 OF 4 HEAT RISK (MAJOR
RISK) FOR TODAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY RELIEF AS THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ABOUT 5-15% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXISTS FOR THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, INCLUDING FIREWORK TIMES. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO
GET UPDATED WEATHER INFO THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND KNOW WHERE TO GO
IF/WHEN STORMS APPROACH WHEN YOU ARE OUTSIDE. REMEMBER, IF YOU
SEE A FLASH, DASH INSIDE! WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS
TODAY LIKE WE HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THESE CAN PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING.
STAY SAFE AND HAVE A GREAT FOURTH OF JULY!
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST)
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
OT/QC. THIS, ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF, WILL ALLOW LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO RETURN TO THE REGION, SUSTAINING PWAT VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 2".
AS THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO UNFOLD, A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS (ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST) MAY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, PROPAGATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
IN ITS WAKE (EARLY SUNDAY MORNING) APPEARS UNLIKELY, CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS IL/IN/OH. WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION, ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW-INITIATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. REGARDING STORM IMPACTS,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO MONDAY, LARGELY AS A RESULT OF MOISTENING PROFILES
ALOFT. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER
EACH DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE U80S-L90S BY MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING
IN THE L-M 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THIS RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THEREFORE TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES WON'T
BE QUITE AS HOT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PWATS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE 2-2.2" RANGE AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. DAILY
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
FOG HAS FLUCTUATED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING BUT VIS HAS REMAINED
VFR. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WILL REMAIN
VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BETTER CHANCES
FOR IMPACTFUL FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM ~09-12Z SUN. LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH
THE LOW COVERAGE, KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...JMS
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