663
FXUS64 KHUN 221115
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S FROM
THURSDAY-SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE CLOUD COVER FROM LAST EVENING HAS LARGELY ERODED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN (ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE AL). THIS WILL BE MONITORED, AS MORE
CLEARING WOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SINCE
WINDS ARE CALM FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT PRESENT AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED
LOWER VIS PERIODICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FOG ON YOUR COMMUTE THIS MORNING, MAKE SURE TO SLOW DOWN, USE
LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN YOU AND THE
CAR IN FRONT OF YOU.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY. THIS, AND A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTH ALABAMA ARE
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT, THERE ARE NUMEROUS
STORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO OUR EAST OVER NORTHWESTERN
GEORGIA AND OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THAT ARE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE SOME CONVECTION TRIED TO FORM ALONG THE
GA/AL BORDER, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO THE EAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND DCAPE AS WELL AS LOWER DEW POINTS
(IN THE 60S). ALTHOUGH, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS
AS WELL AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON, THINKING THAT THESE WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, ANTICIPATING MOST OF ANY ACTIVITY TO
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
SOME DOWNBURST PARAMETERS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE, ONES THAT WOULD
INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS,
ARE ALSO A BIT LACKING (NOT MEETING STRONG/SEVERE THRESHOLDS).
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS TODAY
IS LOW; BUT, THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65, AS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). IF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STAY
WEATHER AWARE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS/ACTIVITIES! WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! SEE A
FLASH, DASH INSIDE!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. AS A RESULT, ONE MORE NIGHT
OF WARM CONDITIONS IS FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLIPPING PORTIONS OF OUR FAR EAST ZONES WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FURTHER WEST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FINALLY, THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT AND AT THIS TIME THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THEREFORE, KEPT THE NBM VERY
LOW CHANCE (5-15%) OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SEEMED TO
LARGELY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT FOG WILL BE AN IMPACT THIS MORNING AT THE TERMINALS, BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE
THE LOW CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (AND ALSO LOWER VIS AND
CIGS). THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH NO RAIN OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, LIGHT (5 KNOTS OR LESS)
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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