598
FXUS64 KHUN 251753
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
-WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO WSW INTO NE OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO EDGE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SEEMS TO BE
LOSING STEAM AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
FRONT. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH 700
MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE DYING FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS MORE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST AND OVERTAKE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS THIS SECONDARY FRONT OVERTAKES THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, MUCH STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEWLY
STRENGTHENED FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE IN A LARGE PART TO
LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS THAT INCREASE AHEAD OF IT (850 MB JET TO
40 KTS/500 MB JET 50-60 KTS). STRONG SHEAR (0-6KM) AND HELICITY
DEVELOP AS WELL. LUCKILY, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY MEAGER ELEVATED
CAPE DEVELOPING (<300 J/KG). EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
MAYBE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRONG FORCING MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MEDIUM TO HIGH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE ELEVATED
AND WEAK NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY, DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 DEGREES AND THE STRONG SHEAR, NO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND POSSIBLY LATER, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS
SOUTH OF THE AREA, BEFORE A DRIER CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL, HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY GIVEN STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGHS DESPITE
SOME ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE WARM, BUT STILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
925 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN MODEL GUIDANCE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES. GIVEN SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOWN IN
MODELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED,
HIGHS SHOULD JUMP A BIT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT LEAST.
THIS MAY BE A TAD COOL GIVEN FACTORS JUST MENTIONED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
POST-FRONTAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER
18Z AND LIFT TO BECOME VFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHEAR
IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP AROUND 2000 FEET AFTER 03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 KTS FROM 220
DEGREES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AROUND THEN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
REALLY INCREASE AFTER 6Z (6Z AT KMSL AND 9Z AT KHSV). THUS,
PREDOMINANT -RA WAS INCLUDED DURING THAT PERIOD ALONG WITH MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL. A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER VSBYS (IFR) AND TSRA WAS
INCLUDED AS WELL (KMSL BETWEEN 6Z AND 10Z/KHSV BETWEEN 9Z AND
13Z). MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER 13Z WITH MORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND -RA AT THE TERMINALS. WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KTS AFTER 13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW
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