447
FXUS64 KHUN 271853 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
153 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- LOW MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA. FURTHER
EAST, THIS THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SOLID HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NW MISSISSIPPI
JUST BEFORE NOON, HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AT THIS HOUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ALONG THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG
THE AL/MS BORDER. A STRONG CAP IS STILL IN PLACED BASED ON THE
DEPTH OF THE 50 DBZ CORES AND LIGHTNING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME OF THOSE CELLS.
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED VIA SPC MESO-ANALYSIS OVER 3000 J/KG.
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/AL BORDER SBCAPE IS STILL BETWEEN 1000 AND
2500 J/KG, DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS. MORE THAN ENOUGH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE EML
CAN BE BROKEN THROUGH TO ALLOW ROBUST CONVECTION. 2-6KM LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 8.0 DEGREES/KM. LUCKILY, LOW LEVEL HELICITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK.
EARLIER SOME MODELS HINTED AT THE EML(CAP) BREAKING EARLIER IN IN
THE EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE BEARING OUT (MAYBE EVEN A TAD
EARLIER) BASED ON THIS LATEST RADAR DEVELOPMENT IN MISSISSIPPI.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NNE TOWARDS NW
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE WOULD APPROACH THE AL/MS
BORDER BETWEEN 2:30 PM AND 3:30 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. AT THIS
TIME, HELICITY LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF THEY CAN
BREAK THE CAP AS THEY MOVE INTO NW AL.
WE STILL EXPECTED THE INTERACTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND THE FRONT TO BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
(EARLIER THINKING WAS 8 PM TO 11 PM) BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG EML IS IN PLACE, SO THAT MIGHT DELAY ROBUST
CONVECTION UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN NW AL.
NW ALABAMA CONTINUES TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SOME LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, OR A TORNADO OR TWO.
FURTHER EAST, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF MORE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AFTER 10 PM. THOUGH ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LINGER THROUGH 6 AM FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. STRONG FORCING PUSHES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS EARLIER IN THE
EVENING CAN HOLD TOGETHER, THEN A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 10 PM NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A GOOD 3/4 TO
1 INCH OF RAINFALL SEEM REASONABLE OR MOST AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SUBSIDENCE AND A REDEVELOPING STRONG EML SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG EML
REDEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL LATER IN THAT
EVENING, AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS OR
MISSOURI. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS OCCURRING OVER ARKANSAS AND
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT HAD ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SETUP A VERY SHEARED AND DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
IT. LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8 DEGREES AND SHEAR AND
HELICITY ARE VERY STRONG. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AS WELL. LUCKILY THE EML SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A LID ON
THINGS UNTIL STRONGER FORCING PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
IN NW ALABAMA AND PROCEED EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (~4
AM) BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. GFS LOOKS TO BE HAVING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES, SINCE COUPLING JET STRUCTURE DYNAMICS
DON'T SEEM TO BE VERY EVIDENT. HOWEVER, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES IN THAT TIMEFRAME, WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR TRAINING/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE GET A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE (20-30
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE
AND WE MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS BETWEEN CLOUD COVER AND SOME
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL LIKELY BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE
LOWER SIDE ONE MORE NIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AGAIN.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE A SURFACE LOW MOVES AND INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA. THIS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A VERY BIG
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. SOME MODELS
DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND OTHER
MODELS WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION
WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST (INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
ALL THE RAIN AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CONCENTRATED MORE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH 6Z OR 7Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE PERIOD (PROB30) OF TSRA
AT KMSL BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z AND AT KHSV BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z. THEN
EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WITH -TSRA. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE AMENDED FOR STRONGER STORMS AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. AFTER 12Z EXPECT MAINLY -SHRA WITH CIGS BELOW 2000 FEET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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