434
FXUS64 KHUN 120538
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. CLEAR
SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COULD ADVECT EAST CULLMAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER
20S), EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY DECOUPLE AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT,
FOG SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME FORMING GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN MOST PLACES.
MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SLIGHTLY, AS A GOOD DEAL OF HEATING IS
EXPECTED (DESPITE MAYBE SOME VERY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS) AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE VIA WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 45
TO 50 DEGREE RANGE LOOK REASONABLE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
AS A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW SWINGS ESE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH LOWS HIGHER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AREA. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE
DEEPER DRIER AIR ALOFT RESIDES. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE
MAINLY.
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP
HIGHS A BIT COOLER, BUT THEY STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT IS A FAIRLY SLOW MOVER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS, VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS
SOUTH WITH IT AND ACCELERATES THE FRONT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH CYCLOGENESIS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S BETWEEN
9 AND 11 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE TIME
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND AIR TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT
DROP TO BELOW FREEZING UNTIL CLOSER TO 1 OR 2 AM ON THURSDAY. THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MAY BE PUSHING EAST
OF THE AREA BY THEN INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE AROUND THE SEWANEE AREA AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW.
EITHER WAY, ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A TRACE TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS
OUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WINDS CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
THURSDAY A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES, BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY NE OF THE AREA
AREA. BITTERLY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS WELL
IN THE MORNING, HIGHS SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
(MAYBE EVEN MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF THE TN RIVER). WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY BREEZY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THEY WILL LIKELY STILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND
15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL KEEP WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S MOSTLY.
AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND THAT SHOULD BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT, DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT AS IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, BUT KEEP IT MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, A
FEW MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. KEPT WITH NBM GUIDANCE ON THE DRIER SIDE,
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR IF THE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME VERY
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS MAY EDGE EAST INTO THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, NO FOG IS EXPECTED. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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