599
FXUS64 KHUN 180513
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND PUSH IN LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD IN LOWER 70S.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS DEGENERATING THIS EVENING AS IT SITS
OVER THE NORTHEAST TX COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK WHAT IS LEFT
OF IT ON A SOUTHERLY ROUTE INTO CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST MAJOR IMPACTS SOUTH OF HERE,
HOWEVER WHAT WE COULD SEE IS CONDITIONAL ON A FEW FACTORS. WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS KEEPING THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH, THIS HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE CORE OF THE RAINFALL AND ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACK FOR ANY CHANGES
AND MONITOR WHERE THE BANDS MOVE INTO.
IF THE TRACK SHIFTS NORTHWARD, IT COULD BRING IN HEAVIER BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE FLOODING AND
SEVERE CHANCES. RIGHT NOW, THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS 0.5" TO 1.5" IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT, WITH MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HERE.
REGARDLESS, ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS PUSH JUST OVER 2" WHICH IS
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AND THAT CAN LEAD TO
NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY CELLS OR
BANDS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. FOR THIS, SPC HAS PLACED US IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5). CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK
TROPICAL TORNADO THOUGH WITH CELL INTERACTIONS AND JUST HOW LOW
THE CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
REMNANTS SLIDING EASTWARD WILL BRING A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR NW
AL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN, LATE AFTERNOON AND NE AL BY THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND
THIS, THERE CAN STILL BE LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EVEN
THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL BE PUSHED OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, THERE IS STILL MORE TO TALK ABOUT, SEE SHORT TERM BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE FORECAST ISN'T DONE AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR GETS OUT OF
HERE, AS THERE IS A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
LUCKILY, THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TRENDING ON THE LATER SIDE,
LETTING THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SLIP ON BY BEFORE IT ARRIVES
FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, AND PUSH SOUTH OF US
AFTER LUNCH. IT IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT WILL
DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE DECENT BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE, BUT
INSTABILITY REALLY DECREASES AND MOISTURE CONTENT DECREASES
(DEWPOINTS, PWATS) AS WELL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S, AND LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
WE'LL REALLY SEE SOME DRIER AIR FILTER IN ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING
FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T FULLY ESCAPE THE
RAIN THOUGH AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH WILL PROVIDE US WITH
LOW CHANCES (20% NE AL/S MID TN - 30% ELSEWHERE) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FLOW
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING HOLD. AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY, WITH FROPA THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MIDWEEK.
OVERALL, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WITH HIGHER
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY (40-80%) AND LOWER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY (20-40%). WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED DUE
TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAINLY BETWEEN 5-6.5 DEGC/KM. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER,
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.7-2.1 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THESE STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING (ESPECIALLY WITH SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS). MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE SUMMERTIME-LIKE PATTERN THEN SETTING UP
(DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT, LOWS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO FROPA AND DECREASING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND
IS SOON EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS. THIS IS A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, BUT AN APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. S TO SW
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE LOWER STRATUS DECK
EVOLVES THIS MORNING AND RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page