742
FXUS64 KHUN 031734
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AL PUSHES EAST. TWEAKED POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COMING TO AN END A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE
LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA, CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SOME BLUE SKY
BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE, NO BIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED DURING THE
MORNING UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD.
LOWS SHOULD COOL OVERNIGHT, RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NEAR THE TN/AL
STATE BORDER TO THE MID 30S SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. UNDER
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S NW AL TO LOW/MID 50S NE AL - AGAIN SHOWING THE PUSH OF VERY
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THROUGH SUN EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS HOWEVER
WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SURGE OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF UPGLIDES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BEGIN A VERY WET
PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE DOMINATE SHOWERS, WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE RAINFALL PRODUCTION. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST WITH AMOUNTS NEARING 1.6 INCHES BY TUE MORNING, WHICH IS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE SCALE. THIS SHOULD HELP YIELD SOME RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL, WITH 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED MON AND
ANOTHER 1-2 LATE MON NIGHT. EVEN MORE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA
"OFFICIALLY" IS UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT AS OF LAST TUE
MORNING, THE 2-4" OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTERWARDS HAS
"PRIMED THE PUMP" REGARDING AS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE
AREA CAN TAKE, BEFORE HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES AND/OR FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
AN UNSETTLED, WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, SO KEEP THOSE RAIN BOOTS OUT. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE
IN BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE GULF, A TROUGH CENTERED UP IN CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE LINGERING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS SET UP
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PLACE US IN WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STREAMING WAA AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DEC BY
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS REACH 70 DEGREES. WITH THE INSOLATION OF
OVERCAST SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE LIKE OUR NORMAL LOWS
ONLY REACHING THE 50S. PWATS WILL RISE INTO THE 99TH OR MAX
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY AS THEY CLIMB TO 1.7".
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO BE RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT THAT WILL STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OF US OR ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
SLIDING THROUGH BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, THIS SETS UP FOR FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE TRAINING. RISES ON RIVERS,
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT. THIS WILL IMPACT RAINFALL TOTALS,
HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF IT'S LOCATION, THERE WILL BE A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT IN RAINFALL TOTALS. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, TUESDAY -
FRIDAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH +2" ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
WHILE CULLMAN CO. AL COULD SEE LESS THAN 0.5". AGAIN, TOTALS ARE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF HALTING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, WHILE OTHERS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIDE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. KEPT CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE AND LEFT IN LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
LOW CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NNW/N THROUGH
01-02Z, BEFORE THE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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