041
FXUS64 KHUN 301845
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CDT WED APR 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF AROUND 0.5" FORECAST
- A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT HIGHS A TAD BELOW
EXPECTED VALUES, BUT NOT FAR OFF. WINDS ARE STARTING TO DROP OF A
BIT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.
THESE SHOULD DROP OFF EVEN MORE, BUT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME THICKER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE,
DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE FRONT OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES BEGINS TO
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THAT
STRETCHES FROM SE CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING ANY BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BECOME THICKER AND SOME RAIN MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. HIGHS DON'T REALLY LOOK TO REBOUND MUCH REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER LOUISIANA, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA BY THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY SHOWN EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THOUGH
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG AS WELL.
THUS, EXPECTING MAINLY SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA INTO GEORGIA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
QUITE COOL AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN MOST GUIDANCE ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS. MORNING CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
(DESPITE SOME ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS) SEEN IN
GUIDANCE MAKE THIS LOOK REASONABLE. THIS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NORMAL HIGHS - THE MID TO UPPER 70S).
WITH A LARGER AND MORE DOMINANT HIGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE
FORECAST IN MOST GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, IF DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES DROP A FROST THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A TAD HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION (VIA NW FLOW ALOFT) WILL
KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT. FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES (MID TO UPPER 70S.)
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, INSTABILITY
DOESN'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z ON
FRIDAY. WIND SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER
01/13Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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