086
FXUS64 KHUN 222342
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AL
THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST TN INTO NORTHERN MS AND WILL CLIP NORTHWEST AL
BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM. A FEW OF THE CAMS SUGGEST A FURTHER EAST
PROGRESSION AS WELL. SINCE THE AIRMASS IS A BIT DRIER AND LESS
UNSTABLE OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S, A WEAKENING TREND MAY DEVELOP WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT, A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKY IS EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND LESS HUMID DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL BRING A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PRONOUNCED LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL LIE FROM MO THROUGH NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS INTO
WESTERN AL DURING THIS TIME, KEEPING OUR ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WOULD BE
HIGHER BASED/ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
(30-50%) ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY, THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLATTENS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FLATTENS AS WELL AND PUSHES
FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND OHIO VALLEY.
OVERALL, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE
ABOVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST. EXPECTING LOWER CHANCES COME
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN STORMS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE GREATER THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. AMPLE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION
TO BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG
C/KM, ALONG WITH DCAPE AROUND OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WILL WARRANT US
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL (BUT FREEZING LEVELS MAY BE TOO
HIGH). AS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL, SINCE MOST PWATS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.7-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES WHEN COMPARED TO BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
STAY WEATHER AWARE ESPECIALLY IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
AL INCLUDING KMSL. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. ONCE THESE TSRA MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
06Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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