627
FXUS64 KHUN 241945
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
245 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 840 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
BE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A DRIER AIR MASS NOTED THANKS TO RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE FEW CLOUDS THAT HAVE FORMED SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN
A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE
ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AN ALMOST CARBON COPY ON TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON AND AGAIN A MINIMAL HEAT RISK AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY ACTUALLY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN AIR
TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL PIVOT
INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPLY JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH TO SUPPORT A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TO START THE LONG TERM, WITH SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE
FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK;
BUT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A REINFORCING FRONT THAT SWINGS
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES THEN DECREASE
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERED INTO
THE REGION.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES AND LAPSE RATES HAVE DECREASED
SINCE YESTERDAY. SO, CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER STORMS (DOWNBURSTS) HAS
ALSO DECREASED; HOWEVER, THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
REGARDLESS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
REPEATEDLY, MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. ULTIMATELY,
KEEP ANY EYE ON FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS! FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOWER WITH CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...99
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