132
FXUS64 KHUN 130159
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MAX TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE
MID 90S AREAWIDE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AFTER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS EARLIER RAINFALL MOISTENED UP THE
NEAR SFC LEVELS AND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. WHILE NO FOG CAN BE SEEN
CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA YET, AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS ARE ALREADY SEEING VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS EVIDENT
BY CURRENT SATELLITE AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOWS TO FALL TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FACTOR ON SUNDAY AS THE TN VALLEY SITS ON THE FRINGE BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP WARM
CONDITIONS AROUND DESPITE THE LOWER HUMIDITY AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. NO HEAT RELATED
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS TIME AS LOWER HUMIDITY WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS HEAT IS STILL DANGEROUS FOR THOSE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO HEAT AS WELL AS THOSE WITHOUT PROPER
HYDRATION AND COOLING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TRACKS EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
INFLUENCED BY DRIER AIR OVER THE APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN FETCH
FROM THE GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEAT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF AND COMPOUNDING THE HEAT
DANGER. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BRING HEAT INDICES UP TO
THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS
RANGE, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE HEAT INDICES
AROUND THAT 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD BECOME MORE LIKELY. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MUCH OF THE SAME AS RIDGING
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. ESE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR
AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH HEAT BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT
AND SUN SAFETY.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE RIDGING OVER THE SE LOOKS
TO RETROGRADE. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT EXITS IN THE MODELS REGARDED IF AND WHEN
THIS FRONT COULD COME THROUGH. AS SUCH, ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN
FRIDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY REGARDING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
NEARLY NEARLY A TEN DEGREE SPREAD WIDELY SHOWN IN THE MODELS. SHOULD
THE FRONT NEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. LOWER VSBYS WERE INCLUDED FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
10-15Z WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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