446
FXUS64 KHUN 131011
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A HOT AND HUMID
DAY. HEAT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-105F.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RISK OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN SOME RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN THESE
AREAS. THIS IS BENEATH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 95-100F
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 100-105F,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AL. THE HEATING AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG
RANGE. THUS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE TO GUSTY WINDS, SUDDEN
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER, IT MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY (09-12Z),
BRINGING STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
(70-80% CHANCE), WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN
THIS BIGGEST CONCERN. GUIDANCE WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWS IT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUING
DURING THIS WINDOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY, OUR HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DISPLACED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALABAMA -- WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A COLD FRONT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING A TEMPORARY BUT MUCH
WELCOMED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN FACT, TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS, PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS WELL WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(60-80%) TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
PATCHY DENSE FG IN SEVERAL RIVER VALLEYS WILL DISSIPATE BY ~14Z.
THIS WILL AFFECT KMSL AND AREAS NEAR KHSV WITH VISIBILITY OF
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO, VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (AFTER 06Z) ENTERING
FAR NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT KMSL OR KHSV, SO CHECK FUTURE UPDATES LATER
TODAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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