443
FXUS64 KHUN 232144
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
444 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA. GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- WE ARE MONITORING A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS, AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SETS UP
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE SE COAST
WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SE LOWER-48. THIS DEEP
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS. AREA
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOWER 70S, WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS
(UNTIL THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON) SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
ONE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A WHILE IS FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S NE ALABAMA TO NEAR 60 NW
ALABAMA. WITH LIGHT WINDS, A FEW INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS IT NEARS, MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA AND GREATER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THAT, PLUS DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS NW ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE SHOWERS COMMENCE ANOTHER WARM
LATE APRIL DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS, AKA INSTABILITIES LIKE CAPE LOOK
MARGINAL IN THE ~200-500 J/KG RANGE, BUT HELICITY VALUES JUMP TO
150-250 M/S, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY OVER NW ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREATS POSED BY THE STRONGER
OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER MORE TO THE EAST AS WE GO
INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING), AS THE
AFORMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY NEARS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY LOOKS TO BE "GENERAL" FAR AS SEVERE PARAMETERS.
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE DISTURBANCE'S TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY. SUNSHINE
AND FAIRLY WARM LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN.
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET ALSO FEEDS THIS PROCESS. THIS WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
AS THIS STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, MUCH STRONGER FORCING
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD HELICITY, SHEAR,
AND INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN MOST GUIDANCE AHEAD OF IT. THIS COULD
BE BOTH A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION/OHIO VALLEY. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.7 INCHES AND VERY STRONG DYNAMICS FEED BY A STRONG SUB-
TOPICAL JET AND A COUPLED LOW/MID LEVEL JET STREAKS COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A MINOR FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN QUICKLY
BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN IN MOST GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE
A MORE SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING CONCERNS AS WE GO INTO THE
MID/END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17
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