775
FXUS64 KHUN 261036
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 TO 109 DEGREES EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD, HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE
NOW BEING OBSERVED IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE NOT INITIALIZING WELL, HOWEVER,
THE ONES THAT DO SHOW ACTIVITY IN THIS VICINITY CONTINUE TO HAVE
IT WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE
A FEW SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING WILL GRAZE
PORTIONS OF NW AL BEFORE FULLY DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY RAISED (BUT
REMAIN VERY LOW) THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TO BE LIKELY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS AFD:
A QUIET WEATHER EVENING IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 70S. GENERALLY SMALL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
TODAY HAVE ALL DISSIPATED IN THE WEAKLY-FORCED ENVIRONMENT. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHERN MISS (AND STILL WEST
OF OXFORD AS OF THIS TYPING) IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWRD, BUT WOULD
APPEAR TO HAVE LOW CHANCES OF MOVING INTO NORTHERN AL. A BROADER
AREA OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED FARTHER
NORTH IN THE OH VALLEY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED DEW
POINTS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, THE POLAR JET AND THE AFORE-MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, SHEARED VORT MAXIMA
EMBEDDED IN THE UPR WESTERLIES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH, THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT IN AN AREA OF
BROAD (BUT WEAK) LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE AS OBSERVED IN NEAR
SURFACE STREAMLINES. THE RESULT COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AGAIN DURING THE DAY. CHANCES WOULD BE FAVORED IN
NORTHERN AREAS, BUT THE CURRENT DEPICTION IN NBM GUIDANCE MAY BE A
BIT TOO LOW. VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME STRONG
UPDRAFTS COULD OCCUR, BUT STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE LACKING IN
THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AS WE TRANSITION IN THE SHORT TERM, A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
SOUTHERN/WARM SIDE OF THE OH VALLEY FRONT WILL MOVE PARTLY INTO
THE AREA. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS (FOCUSED IN
MIDDLE TN). FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS THE STREAM OF SHEARED
VORT MAXIMA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONGSIDE BUILDING
INSTABILITY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ~700-600 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH
EML) AND INCREASED LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL YIELD CAPES ~2500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MAX/MIN THETA-E
DIFFERENCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY, AND ALONG WITH
HIGH PWS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS, BUT LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR TO BE LACKING. FORCING WILL BE BETTER IN NE PARTS OF THE
AREA, AND THERMO PARAMETERS AND PROSPECTS FOR SOME STRONG ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN THE PLACEMENT OF THAT PART OF OUR AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SUNDAY, A BROAD PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WEST CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TAKING SHAPE
IN THE MISS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE START OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL CLIMB FURTHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MAX IN THE
LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND HIGH INSOLATION WILL ACCORDINGLY LEAD TO HIGH
HEAT INDEX, HEATRISK AND WBGT VALUES. THE COMBINATION MAY
NECESSITATE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS FOR THIS
WARM SEASON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL
HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT EVENT WITH
DAILY TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPR 90S EACH DAY AMID
ONGOING HIGH DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY. ADDING TO THIS, INSOLATION WILL
TEND TO BE HIGH EACH DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY EXACERBATING THE
SITUATION. HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WORK NEXT
WEEK, PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 3.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...HC
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