096
FXUS64 KHUN 100515
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (40-60%). FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-80%)
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. FLASH FLOOD AND
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO NW TENNESSEE AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS CONVECTION WAS SEVERE AT TIMES EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AND IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AT THIS
TIME. GOOD INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY (2000 TO 3000
J/KG). WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THOSE SAME GENERAL AREAS.
SO FAR, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING MORE DUE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MAIN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
INTO KENTUCKY.
LUCKILY, NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY AND
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY
INSTABILITY FAIRLY MEAGER OVERNIGHT (MAINLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MAYBE). IN ADDITION, WITH THE BETTER SHEAR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES, NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EVEN IF THE DECAYING MCS CAN PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH.
EXPECT THE DECAYING MCS TO PUSH SOUTH AROUND 1 AM INTO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR AS A DECAYING
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THOSE AREAS
MENTIONED. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THAT HAPPENS, BUT THE DECAYING NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MINIMIZE THAT.
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH ZONAL FLOW LATER IN
THE DAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH (1.8 INCHES) AND SBCAPE
CLIMBS TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 J/KG IN MANY MODELS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THETA E DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BETWEEN 3 KM AND 6 KM LAYER
ARE OVER 20 IN SEVERAL MODELS. DCAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. GIVEN ALL THESE PARAMETERS, DAMAGING WINDS
DUE TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS COULD OCCUR (THOUGH NOT A HIGH
PROBABILITY). THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKE
IT WOULD BE 1 PM TO 10 PM OVERALL. HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED FRIDAY
EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WORK AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LOW AND RE-ENFORCING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOWN
IN MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING
AHEAD OF A RECONSTITUTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. SHEAR
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN MUCH GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
THIS MARGINAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (2000 TO 3500
J/KG), HIGH PWATS, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ON SATURDAY.
THE TIMEFRAME WITH MORE THAN ONE POSSIBLE ROUND OF STORMS COULD
START AS EARLY AS 1 PM AND LAST UNTIL AROUND 10 PM. HIGHS SHOULD
BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AGAIN FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSH. AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY ON HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LOOK LIKELY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT (HIGH CHANCES)
GOING. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES
TOO SATURATED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE (MID TO UPPER 80S) WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE OUR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AS WE STEP INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE
PARKED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED THROUGH OUR
CWA. MID LEVEL RIDING TO OUR NORTH WILL WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROMPTING MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED, THE
VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR OUR TYPICAL
SUMMER THUNDERSTORM THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES REGARDING ANY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING.
ONE UPSIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COME
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SAG SOUTH, DISPLACING OUR PESKY
LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES OF COURSE ME WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGH
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINALS.
SOME REMNANT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL
AROUND 6Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ACTIVITY
WEAKEN AND NO THUNDER IS PRESENT ALONG THE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. A MORE CERTAIN PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED TO IFR CONDITIONS AND MADE
MORE PREDOMINANT IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS. FOR NOW, ENDED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AFTER 1100Z, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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