630
FXUS64 KHUN 082320
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH, A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TORNADOES, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HSV AND MSL BOTH
RECORDED AT LEAST AT 90 F THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
STREAMING IN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF HURRICANE ISAIAS, BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY STILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ATTENTION RAPIDLY TURNS SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MS/AL/FL COASTLINE. THE TN VALLEY WILL SEE CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST AL, AND THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST
UP TO 20-25 MPH, PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STARK DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH NORTHWEST AL AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AND THOSE UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUDS STICKING CLOSER TO 80, IF
NOT THE UPPER 70S. OTHER FEATURES OF FOCUS WILL BE THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST THAT WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT THIS WEEKEND AS ISAIAS APPROACHES.
FOR NOW, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE INITIAL RAIN BANDS TO MOVE IN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS WHERE
THE SPECIFIC LANDFALL LOCATION OF ISAIAS CAN BRING FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN IMPACTS AND LOCATIONS. FROM HERE ON OUT,
I'LL BREAK THE AFD INTO SPECIFIC TROPICAL THREATS IN ORDER OF
CONCERN FOR OUR AREA AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.
WIND: ISAIAS WILL BE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING INLAND ON SATURDAY. AS
IT MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE TN VALLEY, WE ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH AREA-WIDE. HIGH TERRAIN REGIONS OF NORTHEAST AL WILL BE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS MOVED THE PATH OF
THE CENTER OF ISAIAS FROM NORTHWEST AL INTO NORTHEAST MS, WHICH
WILL BRING THE MORE INTENSE WIND FIELD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER MORE OF THE TN VALLEY. THE PLAN IS FOR A WIND-RELATED
HEADLINE TO BE OUT FOR THE WHOLE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SEVERAL OTHER OFFICES.
TORNADOES: DUE TO THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK, MORE OF
THE RAIN BANDS WILL PROGRESS OVER OUR AREA. THE TORNADO THREAT
WOULD BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE FIRST BANDS APPROACH.
THIS THREAT WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. THE FLY IN THIS
OINTMENT IS AS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES WITH
ISAIAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THIS MAY STALL OVER THE TN
VALLEY, WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WILL BE IN A TORNADO
WATCH ON SATURDAY.
FLOODING: TROPICAL SYSTEMS BRING INTENSE RAIN RATES, AND NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED RAIN BANDS WILL RESULT IN WIDE VARIABILITY IN RAIN
TOTALS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. BROAD SWATHS UP TO 3-4" ARE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH END SWATHS UP TO 5-7"
IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE TROPICAL BANDS. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED THAT ENCOMPASSES THIS THREAT, PLEASE SEE
THAT FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID OCTOBER. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
DRY CONDITIONS HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH CIRRUS
STREAM INTO THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE ISAIAS
OVER THE GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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