906
FXUS64 KHUN 121940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AN UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND HAS
SERVED AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MORE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TODAY, THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE TODAY THAN WE SAW
YESTERDAY, WITH LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKER LAPSE
RATES. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE
TODAY, AS THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS FIRE ALONG
SMALLER/REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS THIS
DISTURBANCE NEARS, RANGING FROM 1.8-2". THIS WILL CARRY A LOW RISK
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAIN IN PREVIOUS DAYS OR WHERE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK
TODAY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES POSITIONED IN OUR
NORTHEAST AREAS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER AS THE OTHERWISE SATURATED SOILS
AND CALM WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS IN NW AL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
TRENDS HAVE CHANGED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, NOW LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL STALL AND
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE OVER THE AREA, KEEPING A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) EACH
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE EXTREME HEAT RISK AT BAY AS HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE MID 80S, BUT IT WILL COME AT THE COST OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING EACH DAY. WPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DRIVEN BY PWATS RISING ABOVE 2" EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE HIGHEST FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY WET
PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS, SO THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER
DYNAMICS SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH (INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOWER (BUT NON-ZERO) SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. THAT SAID,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (PARTICULARLY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY). UNFORTUNATELY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS, ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, WILL SEND HEAT INDICES BACK OVER
100F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. REDUCTIONS TO IFR TO PERHAPS
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
AND AWWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT EITHER TERMINAL. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT
BOTH TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW.
AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY AS SOME CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25
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