623
FXUS64 KHUN 132158
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
458 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
- A LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES RETURN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- CONCERNS FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY (HEAT INDEX VALUES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES).
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON INTO EASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS,
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3.5 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
PRODUCED ONE QUARTER TO AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING PRODUCED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT IS MOVING
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CULLMAN COUNTY (AL) FROM NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA.
THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL & POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING REMAIN IN PLACE: 1) THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONSISTENT
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW 2) A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS
(PWATS OF 1.9 TO 1.9 INCHES), AND TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
A SECONDARY HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FROM
WESTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY (TN) SW INTO LAWRENCE COUNTY
(AL) OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SPECIFICALLY FOR FLASH FLOODING IF SHOWERS
INTENSIFY AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THAT CONVERGENCE AXIS.
SOME ACTIVITY (COVERAGE 40-60%) SHOULD CONTINUE LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS (SOME HIGHER CHANCES BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT) BEFORE DISSIPATING. CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER LOW
(LIKELY NEAR CULLMAN COUNTY OR THE BIRMINGHAM AREA) WILL LIKELY
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCUR ISOLATED
LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER VIA UPSTREAM ADVECTION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE WEST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
UPPER LOW TO ITS EAST. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW BY THEN WILL
LIKELY KEEP 60 TO 80 PERCENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY OVER LOCATIONS
NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
MORE EAST OF I-65, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE EVEN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PWATS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR AND
WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR THE FLASH FLOODING CONCERN TO REMAIN
IN PLACE IN THOSE AREAS. MORE LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL
OCCUR FURTHER EAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A BIT LOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THE SAME, DESPITE MAYBE SEEING A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ALLOW FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMMON. LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LESSEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
UPPER LOW IN MOST GUIDANCE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND WEAKENS. WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE ALONG IT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
NEW GUIDANCE KEEPS A BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
NNW TO SSE ORIENTATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG
IT. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-60%) CHANCES OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THOUGH WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
RIDGING AT THE MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK TO DISPLACE OUR LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AT THE MID LEVELS
AND WORK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER, LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
IN WAKE OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HEAT WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH
HIGHS MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S. THIS WILL ALLOW WEEKEND HEAT INDICES TO CREEP INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, PROPER HEAT SAFETY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY FOR
THOSE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES, A STRAY STRONGER STORM EACH AFTERNOON
WILL POST A SNEAKY SECONDARY THREAT BEHIND HEAT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AMONG THE STRONGEST
STORMS. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATE TSRA WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 05-06Z, AND LOWER
TO 010-015AGL BY 09-13Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON TUESDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH
TAF LOCATIONS FOR NOW. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE TSRA WHEN
TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE DEFINED. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY NLT THAN 20Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17
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