729
FXUS64 KHUN 251902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 TO 109 DEGREES
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
OVERALL, THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM
FORECAST REASONING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A GRADUALLY
DECAYING MCV WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MS
INTO SOUTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TX. AS THIS OCCURS, MINOR
HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN THE VICINITY OF A
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL. THUS, WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
(15-25%) POP FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH SUNSET, WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 0-2Z.
OVERNIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN (PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA) AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (ORIGINATING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW'S WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO)
WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
PRIOR TO 12Z. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER (COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS), WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE LOW CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO AREAS
EAST OF I-65, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER
WEAKENING MCV THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING IN NORTHWEST AL AND MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, AT THIS
POINT WEAKENING FORCING AND WARM AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY, A 5H RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL DIRECT
SHORTWAVES AND MCSS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY, INCLUDING
INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN TN AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THESE AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CLIP OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THESE AREAS IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DURING THE DAY
3 PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A VERY WARM, HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL CREATE MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT IMPACTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH,
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
EACH DAY (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S (WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY). THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-109 DEGREES EACH DAY. HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FACTORING THE VERY LIMITED RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT (LOWS
IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S).
NWS HEAT RISK VALUES HIGHLIGHT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN
MAJOR RISK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NWS
HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS AN EXTREME RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THESE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS, MEAN THAT THIS HEAT WILL
AFFECT EVERYONE, ESPECIALLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. HEALTH SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE HEATWAVE BUILDS WITH NO RELIEF OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, IT IS
ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS STAYING
HYDRATED AND MOVING/REMAINING INDOORS IN AIR CONDITIONING DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH 00Z, MAINLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT EITHER
KMSL OR KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OTHERWISE DURING THE
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
JULY 2-4. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ABOVE THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...17
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