048
FXUS64 KHUN 051041
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF THE
1 AM OBSERVATION, THE TEMPERATURE AT HSV IS 80 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 74 DEGREES. MOST OTHER OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS
REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG AND EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND THE 75TH-90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES
CLIMBING UP INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS NO REAL SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THAT OUTFLOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND COULD BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM
DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW, HAVE POPS AROUND 30-40% WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE MAIN STORY, HOWEVER, WILL BE
THE HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. LOWS THIS
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING FROM A HIGHER BASE. HIGHS
YESTERDAY AT THE ASOS SITES WERE ALL 98 DEGREES. THE HIGHS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO
GO WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 104-107 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES TO THE
WEST. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL BE DIRECTLY LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DUE TO
THIS, EXPECT WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH MAX HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 105-112 DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND A EXTREME HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME, EXPECT THE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED
WITH 30-40% CHANCES FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY
SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED BUT WITH NO SYNOPTIC LIFT, ONLY A 30-40% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 103-111 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AGAIN, MAY
A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE MAY GET
CLOSE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BUT THE RIDGE MAY
FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN SOME AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS, STILL DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT HIGHS WOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-110
DEGREE RANGE. OVERALL, WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL BUT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW STRONG
THE RIDGE WILL BE AT THIS POINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POPS AROUND
30-40%.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT ONE OF THESE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS, HAVE ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE "COOLER" WITH THESE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM....MA
LONG TERM....MA
AVIATION...MA
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