362
FXUS64 KHUN 221855
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY-LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING, AS SUNNY SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BREEZE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE L-M 50S BY SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AT THE 500-MB LEVEL WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH LIGHT (5-15 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN RIM OF A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST, WITH LIGHT-MODERATE
SW FLOW TODAY BACKING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MT INTO SOUTHERN SK/MB IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF AN INTENSIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA
(WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND CAPE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER), WE
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO L-M 80S IN THE
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITHIN A REGION
OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ARKLAMISS
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY, BUT CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR CWFA, WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
L-M 50S (AND BRIEF DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY MIST/FOG POSSIBLE IN
NORMALLY FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z).
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW BUT AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM OT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION
BENEATH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, A LEAD VORT
MAX LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PHASE
WITH A STRONGER WAVE DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES TO FORM A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX (THAT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN SK FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD). AS THE INITIALLY DOMINANT SURFACE LOW RELATED TO THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF TWO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL WAVES EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE REGION AS WELL AS ACROSS
CENTRAL IA. ALTHOUGH A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LOCALLY WILL LEAD TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S, ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TOMORROW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY A 5-10%
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS THE TN VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES OBSERVED TODAY, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE M-U 50S ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE FRONTAL
WAVE ACROSS IA WILL TRAVEL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND WEAKEN, AS THE SOUTHERNMOST WAVE DECAYS ACROSS EASTERN
TX. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL
WILL WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT, BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BOTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (FROM IL SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AR) DURING THE
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A COUPLE OF SMALL MCSS BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHICH (IF EITHER) CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT REGARDLESS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (LARGELY DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TO 20-25 KNOTS).
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES (WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT CAPE TO
250-500 J/KG EVEN AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S), AND WITH
A DECENT CHANCE THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, THIS
WOULD FAVOR LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, SHOULD WE BE CLIPPED BY ONE OF THE SMALL STORM CLUSTERS,
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BECOME A RISK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL OVERTAKE THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO STALL IN CENTRAL
CANADA, PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO LOW
CHANCES (30% OR LESS) SUNDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOME COULD BECOME
STRONG ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ~500-900 J/KG OF CAPE INFLUENCES
THE AREA WITH MINIMAL SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES CAUSING MINIMAL PONDING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND EARLIER- REACHING THE AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY BETWEEN SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON SUNDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE TN VALLEY WILL BE IN A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR
A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY- DURING WHICH
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A LOW RISK (15%) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN OFFICIAL
TIMING AND THREATS DUE TO THIS EVENT BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH/COVERAGE
OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN UPDATED
ON THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW-HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN
(BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET), WITH A
SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF CU EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BEYOND 16Z
THURSDAY. SW SFC FLOW OF 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH AND BACK
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS ONCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BRIEF FORMATION OF LGT BR/FG MAY
OCCUR IN FEW LOCATIONS BTWN 10-13Z, CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH TO INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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