070
FXUS64 KHUN 101831
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
131 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 816 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A VERY DRY PROFILE, INDICATIVE OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, THINK IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE VERY FLAT CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUSNET, WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 753 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE DISTURBANCE OVER MS AND SOUTHWEST AL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY, SPREADING MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY, ALONG WITH HIGHER PW VALUES AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THEN, A TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY,
ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HIGH (70-90%). DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW, SO SLOWER MOVING
STORMS AND HIGH PW VALUES WILL LEND TO A RISK HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKED BY WPC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED BY THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, WITH MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE
HIGH DEW POINT VALUES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN AGAIN
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
WILL INDUCE WEAK SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND KEEP HUMID SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE EACH DAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
NEAR AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY. WHILE NOT APPROACHING ANY
RECORDS, THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH,
PRESENTING MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN MID SEPTEMBER. PLEASE MAKE SURE TO
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT AND SUN SAFETY DURING OUR
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR MID SEPTEMBER, WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY SCATTERED. WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC FORCING
MECHANISM IT WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES OR LOCATIONS
THAT MAY HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
REGARDING OUR LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP
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