897
FXUS64 KHUN 161308
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
808 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOCALIZED EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) IMPACTS MAY OCCUR IN
URBANIZED AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
A 6 DKM 5H ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COOL AND DRY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDED
A RIDGE AXIS INTO GA AND AL. THIS INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO MIX INTO THE 60S AGAIN TODAY IN MANY AREAS. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW ENHANCED CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S IN VALLEYS (LOWER 90S ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS), LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
A CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 5H
HIGH WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AND INTO AR AND TX ON FRIDAY. THIS AS A TUTT/LOW MOVES
WEST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. THUS, A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ENTERS THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT, THIS CHANCE IS
STILL LESS THAN 10%, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE ANCHORED RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED TO OUR WEST AS THE WONDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS ARE EVEN MORE SPLIT
TODAY ON WHAT THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THIS LOW WILL BE. IT
SEEMS TO STALL FOR A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NE GULF LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EITHER SLIDING WESTWARD, OR WEAKENING AND
FADING OUT COMPLETELY. REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE
LOWER 90S IN NE AL/PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDEX VALUES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SITTING AROUND 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER
WE WILL REMAIN IN A LEVEL 2-3 HEATRISK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. SO
ENSURE TO BE HEAT SAFE/SMART. SLOW DOWN, HYDRATE AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FEATURE. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TRY TO PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. WILL SEE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN
(20-45%) ON MONDAY, BUT WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY STALLING ON
TUESDAY, WE WON'T SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT HAVE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE. THIS WILL AT LEAST HELP THE TEMPS LOWER A TAD WITH SOME
SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SE/SSE WINDS
AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP
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