881
FXUS64 KHUN 291602
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1102 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR KBNA TO JUST NORTHWEST OF KCRX AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 50S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, BUT A FEW PEAKS OF SUN MAY DO JUST THAT.
MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN, SO MAINTAINING LOW
CHANCES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
ZONAL 5H FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL DAY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TEXAS
AND THEN THE GULF STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, PRIMARILY OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN THE TN VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAIN
AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. VERY LOW TO LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
ARE REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
CLIMBING INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH AL, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN TN
AND FAR NORTHWEST AL. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, WITH 0.5-1.0 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOL RAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF
A SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS) WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S (FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS IN THE M60S-L70S LATER ON
SUNDAY). SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE M-U70S BY TUESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED IN THIS REGIME,
BUT SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY TUESDAY, WARRANTING VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A SCATTERED (VFR) TO BROKEN (MVFR) LAYER AT 020-030AGL WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 20-23Z WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH CLOUDS RISING TO ~030-050AGL (VFR). THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHRA AND TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO VERY LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA AND TSRA
FROM 00-06Z BEHIND THE FRONT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES BY, BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF KMSL AND KHSV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT EITHER TERMINAL. THE SKY WILL CLEAR BY 12-14Z
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING AT 15-20KT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17
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