994
FXUS64 KHUN 011412
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS (50-60MPH)
AND LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1 INCH) ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65, SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. TO THE
NORTH, SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE TRENDS, WE
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE AFORMENTIONED
CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW COMBINED WITH
SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO MID TO UPPER 80S.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AL WHERE CLOUD
COVER LINGERS A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING.
OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MCS PROPAGATING SSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KY. THE CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT
THE MCS SHOULD FOLLOW ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NORTH-
CENTRAL TN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NE AL. DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5). THE AIRMASS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
INTO IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE FORECAST BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. BULK SHEAR INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE MCS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY MAKES THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (50-60 MPH) AND LARGE
HAIL (UP TO QUARTER SIZED). THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE AND LINEAR MAKING TORNADOES UNLIKELY TODAY. THE
MCS SHOULD ARRIVE INTO OUR NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES
AROUND 10-11 AM AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SSE, EXITING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 2-3 PM. WHILE THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING THREATS, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK, THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE AREA A DRY EVENING IS FORECAST.
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS STILL ARE FORECAST AS THE DRIER AIR
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP DOWN INTO
THE MID 60S. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AROUND OVERNIGHT, BUT IF
SOME CLEARING OCCURS FOG WOULD BE FAVORABLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AFTER OVER A WEEK OF DAILY RAIN CHANCES, BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL ON TUESDAY FROM THE
LOWER 60S DOWN INTO THE MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY. A NICE REPRIEVE FROM
THE SAUNA-LIKE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING TRANQUIL, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS MAY BRING LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS MOVED IN FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN IFR CIGS,
WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO LIFR, AND SOME SPOTS BEING IMPACTED BY
FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL AND FAR WESTERN KY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE SE, AND SHOULD IMPACTING THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WITH THIS COMPLEX COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS, ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A RISK OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD END AS WE GO
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS, SKIES CLEARING AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE, MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
PREDAWN OF TUE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RSB
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