996
FXUS64 KHUN 050838
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
338 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AL/GA) WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE (MAINTAINING A SCATTERED-
BROKEN COVERAGE OF CIRROFORM CLOUDS), THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO DEFLECT ANY MEANINGFUL
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST, AND WE WILL RETAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
TODAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY A
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH (POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS) AS IT BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SSW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS. FOLLOWING MORNING LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S (WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER), HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE U70S-L80S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE M-U
80S IN THE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND UNDERNEATH THE
AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST BRINGING IN A MORE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS OFF THE
GULF. AS A RESULT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO ADVECT IN A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS IS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S BY SUNDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
(40-80% CHANCE), WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THAT WILL CLIP OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT,
ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR
EARLY JUNE AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BROKEN LAYER OF CI WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISPERSE LATER THIS
MORNING, PERMITTING SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT FAIR-WEATHER CU BASED ARND 4 KFT. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER, CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTIONS AT EITHER HSV
OR MSL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN CALM THRU SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD ASSUME A SSW COMPONENT
AT 5-10 KTS BY 16Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD
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