722
FXUS64 KHUN 022358
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AL-TN
BORDER.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM (50-60%) FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
DATA STILL INDICATES A FAIR COVERAGE OF LOW-REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
(PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA).
HOWEVER, WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING HIGH (10-12 KFT), ONLY A FEW
REPORTS OF SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED. THUS, WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS
IN THE 10-20% RANGE, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
EVENING, LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE L-M 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF A FLAT
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT WILL SPREAD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A LIGHT-
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A DECAYING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR AND A STRONG HIGH THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH
TIME. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EMBEDDED WITHIN WNW FLOW
ALOFT) IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART AS IT ADVANCES FROM
THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. NEVERTHELESS, WEAK LIFT RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
SUPPORTED A VAST COVERAGE OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE DECAYING LOW NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN TN AND INTO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN KY. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS OUR CWFA WILL BE REINFORCED BY COLD AIR DAMMING IN
THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE MAJORITY OF
HYDROMETEORS ALOFT SHOULD EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN, WE
WILL RETAIN A 10-20% POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AL-TN BORDER. DUE
TO AN OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS (THAT SHOULD NOT BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING),
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT
SHOULD STILL RANGE FROM THE M-U 60S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE L-M
70S IN THE VALLEY. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA BTWN 0-3Z, WITH DRY BUT MILD
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE BENEATH A
PERSISTENT 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, DEVELOPMENT OF
LOWER STRATUS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE (WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE IN A FEW WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS). DUE TO LINGERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT TO OUR EAST, WE WILL
EXPERIENCE LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING (U40S-L50S IN THE EAST AND MID
50S IN THE WEST).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN INTENSIFYING 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE MO
VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME, TO THE SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. AS THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH (RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD AIR
DAMMING TO OUR EAST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD) BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
RETREAT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE L-M 50S REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OF
RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE U50S-L60S), LACK OF A SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING MECHANISM WILL PRECLUDE POPS HIGHER THAN 5-10%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
U70S-L80S BY WEDNESDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE
M-U 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE SW ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, KEEPING WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL HELP
KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S - WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW FAR EAST A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK. WITH
THAT IN MIND, WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS STARTING
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF I-65. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING TROUGHING AND A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH
CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY RESULTING IN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HELD TO OUR
WEST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE AL/TN BORDER. GIVEN THE TRACK OF SHOWER NEARING KMSL,
HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING SE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE DAY HOURS TUE. THE STRONG SE FLOW WILL
BRING MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS DECK
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-15KT FROM MID
TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 10TH AND 11TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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