730
FXUS64 KHUN 122043
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
- AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE-NO CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROMOTING
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. LOCALLY, THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO HIGH 50S MAKING FOR A
SEASONABLE MID FEBRUARY DAY. TONIGHT, CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
PROMOTING A DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL VEER TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE LOWER 60S,
WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WEEKEND, A STACKED TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN JET, IT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME CUT OFF ON SUNDAY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST, AND START TO SLOW DOWN. DEPENDING ON THIS
EVOLUTION, PRECIP CHANCES MAY LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL STICK WITH THE NBM FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SHOWERS WILL EDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR NEAR
SATURATION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS HOVER AROUND 1"
(50-75TH PERCENTILE) AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR
(0-3KM 30-40KTS AND 0-6KM 40-60KTS). INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL BE
LACKING, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED CAPE THAT COULD PROVIDE
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC
HAS NW AL CLIPPED IN A MARGINAL ERO, AS WE COULD SEE 1-2" OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW/MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND THE UPPER 60S ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
AS THE NEARLY STACKED LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH AL ON
SUNDAY, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BAND IN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS SUNDAY MORNING. BY
EVENING, LIGHTER BUT STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
LOW TRACK, ENDING BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE RATHER MODEST BEHIND THE LOW WITH 8H TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RIDGE IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWS THROUGH ON MONDAY SWINGING FLOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. 8H
TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 10S MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE 5H
RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 8H AND THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES THE RIDGE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING 8H TEMPS INTO THE 15-18C RANGE ALONG WITH A
MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND POTENTIAL LOWER CLOUDS.
THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DESPITE THE WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORESEEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.
OUR REGION WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS,
SO CHANCES WOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAD
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