268
FXUS64 KHUN 181900
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
200 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- HEATRISK IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND ARE ON TRACK TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE MOMENT. THESE VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE (AND OUR FORECAST); HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TIME
FOR THESE TO MIX OUT SOME AND BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. EITHER
WAY, IT'S A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. ENJOY
YOUR TUESDAY, BUT REMEMBER TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS JUST IN CASE IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. MAKE SURE TO HAVE SOME EXTRA WATER AND
TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TODAY. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, IT MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT CLIP CULLMAN COUNTY. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TODAY
(VERSUS THE LOWER TO MID 70S LIKE IN RECENT DAYS). IN ADDITION,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM, AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS
OVER SOME AREAS IN NE AL MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THOUGH, IN THE
UPPER 80S. THEREFORE, NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR NEEDED
TODAY; BUT, IT'S STILL A GOOD IDEA TO REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY IF YOU
WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED!
THERE MAY BE VERY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO FURTHER EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK; HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A
BOUNDARY LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
LITTLE TO NO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%)
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BULK SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (1000-3000
J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL REFERENCED). NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON
THURSDAY, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THESE MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS
HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH, DEW POINTS DON'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
EVEN SO, NWS HEATRISK HIGHLIGHTS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. WBGTS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS WELL.
THEREFORE, IT WILL STILL BE WARM, WHICH MEANS THAT HEAT SAFETY IS
STILL IMPORTANT. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL BE MONITORING A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES SET TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS
A RESULT, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACCOMPANIED BY HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104 DEGREES. WHILE NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE
ON THE TABLE AT THIS TIME, WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO
REMAIN HYDRATED AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
A TRANQUIL PERIOD IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE DAY AND CALM WINDS AT NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT; THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG CONCERNS AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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