376  
FXUS64 KHUN 151712 AAC  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1212 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 18Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(REST OF TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION  
TODAY, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A  
CURRENT GLANCE AT SATELLITE RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION  
PUSHING NNE FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE WESTERN ALABAMA  
BORDER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, AND WOULD  
EXPECT A STEADY UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS THIS OCCURS. WITH VERY HIGH  
PWAT VALUES (CLOSE TO 2" ACROSS THIS AREA), WOULD EXPECT HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY  
IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHEN 2-3" OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED  
SINCE 12Z SUNDAY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT RAINFALL RATES IN THE  
DEEPEST CONVECTION OF 1-2"/HR COULD CAUSE SOME CONCENTRATED AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING -- ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.  
 
AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM, WE'LL HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF  
THINGS CAN DESTABILIZE A LITTLE MORE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONCERN IS A BAND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
CURRENTLY MOVING NNE FROM AROUND THE GWX RADAR SITE INTO FAR  
NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 15-18Z. WITH SOME DENSE MORNING CIRRUS, WE'VE  
REMAINED CAPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA -- BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME  
BREAKS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST  
SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION (CAPE ~ 1000 J/KG). THIS COMBINED WITH A  
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES COULD CREATE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE  
LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A  
WEAK, BRIEF TORNADO. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL  
BE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THESE  
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW  
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S (WEST) TO THE  
MID 80S (EAST).  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
THE REMNANTS OF EX-TROPICAL SYSTEM BARRY BY THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD  
BE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OZARKS OF AR/MO, THEN BE NEAR THE SAINT  
LOUIS AREA TOWARDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE  
OVER AREAS WEST OF I-65 THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE EX-TROPICAL  
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID WEEK WILL BEGIN HEADING TO THE NE AND THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OF IT WILL  
BRING GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE MIDWEEK. AS  
SUCH, KEPT LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OVERALL SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL  
REDUCE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BUT HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE  
WATER WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS AND  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BETWEEN AND BEFORE SHOWERS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR  
TUE/WED SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 (TRENDING A BIT  
COOLER ON WED GIVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF THE EXCESSIVE  
HEAT AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE  
VALLEY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 90S  
ON THURSDAY, AND WILL REACH WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY THE WEEKEND.  
THIS, COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BRING  
HEAT INDICES WELL ABOVE 100 FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WE COULD REACH HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD IN AREAS AROUND THE VALLEY,  
WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE 105-108F RANGE. THIS WILL  
CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S, SO NO REAL RELIEF FROM  
THE HEAT IS EVIDENT AT THIS POINT.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS. NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH  
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS PRODUCING  
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1518/1521. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCTS  
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH  
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 2.5 KFT. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH  
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...AMP.24  
SHORT TERM...RSB  
LONG TERM...25  
AVIATION...AMP.24  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE  
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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