378  
FXUS64 KHUN 051842  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
142 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM  
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
AFTERNOON CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONLY A  
SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG THE MS/AL STATE LINE SO FAR. ANY  
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF I-65 AND DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. MAIN  
HAZARDS IN STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING.  
 
WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE IS HAVING A FUN AND SAFE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,  
BUT STAY WEATHER AWARE AWARE. REMEMBER, IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR  
SEE LIGHTNING, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK. AND WITH  
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAT  
INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES, HEAT SAFETY IS IMPERATIVE. TAKE  
BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED AND NEVER LEAVE A PERSON OR PET IN A  
VEHICLE. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE  
UPPER 60S (NE AL) TO THE LOWER 70S (ELSEWHERE) UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO  
RETROGRADE WEST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TS CHANTAL WEAKENING INTO A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH  
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROGRESS SLOWLY OVER THE MIDWEST TOWARDS  
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE, A  
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, THEN OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO RAIN  
CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY; ALTHOUGH, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED  
IF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FORMED IN THE AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS  
FROM FRIDAY THE 4TH AS WELL AS THE CURRENT THINKING FOR TODAY.  
THIS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT HAVE VERY LOW (10%) CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ON MONDAY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE TO BE LOW TO MEDIUM  
(15-30%) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AMPLE  
INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST  
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG  
WILL PROMPT ANOTHER DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER  
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. WITH BULK SHEAR  
BELOW 20 KNOTS, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGHS IN  
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INCREASING  
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, HEAT INDICES ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL  
STILL BE HOT. PLEASE STAY SAFE AND REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY!  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN JUST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST  
AND BEGIN BUILDING MORE OVER THE GULF TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.  
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 40-60% MAINLY FOCUSED DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WHEN IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL  
PUSH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A  
THREAT AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH  
DAY. FLOODING MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE. THERE  
IS A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65  
THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE WOULD IMPACT  
THE TAF SITES. DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT WE'LL KEEP  
AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAKE AMENDMENTS AS  
NEEDED. ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DWINDLE THROUGH THE EARLY  
EVENING, WITH NO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE  
WEST OF I-65 LATE TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VIS AT HSV AND/OR  
MSL IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND  
5 KNOTS OR SO TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN  
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND HOVER AROUND 5 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...JMS  
SHORT TERM....26  
LONG TERM....KTW  
AVIATION...26  
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