718
FXUS64 KHUN 161511
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE HEATRISK ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90-100F
FORECAST.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOME BANDS OF CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING,
BUT AN OTHERWISE DRY (RAIN-FREE) DAY IS FORECAST (SAVE FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES) AS THE AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER AND A "COOLER", DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY AS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON WEDNESDAY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN A STRONG
FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND A DEVELOPING "TROPICAL" LOW OFF
THE TX/LA COASTLINE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS EVIDENCED
BY DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S. ADDITIONALLY A LOW
(20-30%) FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MUCH WARMER NIGHT IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES (AND DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S), RESULTING IN MID 70S LOWS BEING COMMON
DESPITE RAIN SHOWERS HOLDING OFF.
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY, "PICKING UP" THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
FEATURE AND BRING IT INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING
HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
WINDOW. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
AS PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.8-2.0" (90-95TH PERCENTILE PER
BMX/OHX SOUNDING CLIMO) AND GIVEN THE MOIST SOILS WPC HAS PLACED
THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SLOW, EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW-END, BUT
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS -- LARGELY IN
MULTICELL OR LOW-TOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THUS, A CONDITIONAL,
LOW TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
WELL AS A LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HYDRO, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH COVERAGE OF EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS IN A TROPICAL AIR
MASS. THUS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY HEADING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE RAIN. THE QUESTION
WILL BE IF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY ARRIVED BY NOW OR IF IT
WILL PUSH IN FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE TO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, AND
PWATS 1.9-2.1" WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED PRETTY FAR NORTH OF US, AND
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SO
RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ALREADY PLACED US IN A
SLIGHT ERO FOR FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, WITH THE RAINFALL THAT WE
RECEIVE THIS WEEK, WE WILL SEE RISES IN RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS
ON FRIDAY, WITH ISSUES LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE NASA SPORT STREAM HEIGHTS MODEL FOR SOME CREEKS
AND RIVERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST GETS FURTHER
COMPLICATED WHEN ASKING THE QUESTIONS, AT WHAT PACE DOES THE COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND AT WHAT TRAJECTORY DOES THE
LEFT OVERS OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION? IF
THE COLD FRONT IF ABLE TO GET SOUTH OF US PRETTY QUICK ON FRIDAY,
IT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL AL. IF NOT, OR
IF IT STALLS OUT OVER US, WE WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, THUS
MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS.
POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE RAINFALL
RELIEF FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS LOW
CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE THAT SCOOTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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