107
FXUS64 KHUN 291836
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DANGEROUS COLD RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
- A LOW CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S (DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER) DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 45
DEGREES IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA PRIMARILY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUSH ESE ACROSS
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD AND DEEPER CLOUD COVER WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS HAVE MAINLY
CONTINUED A DRIER TREND WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY COMPARED TO LAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THOUGH.
THERE IS MORE OF A SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS MULTIPLE WEAK
SURFACE LOWS OVER THE NE GULF COAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
CONSOLIDATE INTO A VERY STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS DEEPENING/CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SPURRED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT SWINGS SSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. VERY STRONG LIFT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THIS
UPPER LOW. NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE END UP
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG DEFORMATION BAND THAT SETS UP
NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW. THOUGH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, THE LIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAYBE MORE JUST FLURRIES) FRIDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. WINDS COULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN VARIOUS QPF FORECASTS. FOR NOW,
KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. TRACE ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE UP TO
AROUND 1/2 OF AN INCH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE SEWANEE, TN) COULD
OCCUR. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS UNLESS
HEAVIER LOCALIZED SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE VERY COLD AIR AND EVEN
WINDIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE CLOSE, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS JUST OVER 30 MPH COULD
OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD IN
CASE THEY TREND STRONGER. THIS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND MAYBE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUSLY
COLD CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (TEENS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN).
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILL
VALUES. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND THEN BETWEEN -5 AND 5 DEGREES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA, THEY MAY REMAIN BELOW 5
DEGREES IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SOME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT (10
TO 20 WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH). THIS WILL HELP TEH ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT WARMER THAN WE COULD GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. LOWS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN MOST
AREAS. WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
BETWEEN -5 AND 5 DEGREES. THESE WINDS WILL REALLY LESSEN ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO COULD LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE DANGEROUS WINDS CHILL VALUES
EXPECTED, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 11 PM ON FRIDAY
THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIR SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO OUR WEST TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO
REACH THE LOWER 40S AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WILL COME
WITH SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TIMING IN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND AS A
RESULT A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX WOULD OCCUR IF
THE COLD AIR AND PRECIP ALIGN. HOWEVER, IMPACTS AT THIS TIME
APPEAR MINIMAL WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
MID/HIGH CIGS ON AND OFF. OTHERWISE, WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL BECOME ALMOST EASTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...AMP
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