818
FXUS64 KHUN 141518 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1018 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103-105 DEGREES NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
7 AM SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH BMX AND OHX SHOW A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EAST OF THE COLUMBUS, MS AREA. A BIT BETTER CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
BE IN PLACE ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SO EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER TOWARDS NOON AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT.
A FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER BEFORE HEADING ESE INTO GEORGIA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER WEST. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SOME. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY. NO SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AND WITH THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IN PLACE,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. GIVEN CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY, HIGHS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 TO 85 RANGE.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AROUND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER
WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD OCCUR WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR (MAYBE MORE SO
IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRETCH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY DOWN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
ULTIMATELY, ANTICIPATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN
BY MODELS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AS MUCH (COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY), BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
MODEL PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.8-2.1 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
LOOKING AT SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX, THIS PWAT RANGE FALLS
RIGHT AROUND AND EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.98 INCHES).
THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. WITH BULK SHEAR BEING WEAK BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH
DOWNBURST PARAMETERS NOT BEING MET, NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE
THREAT WITH STORMS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS
WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH DAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT NIGHT. WITH LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS, WE'LL ALSO BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EACH NIGHT WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL WORK TO DISPLACE THE PESKY SURFACE LOW, THAT HAS
PROMPTED OUR HIGH RAIN CHANCES, TO OUR SE. WHILE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SHOWED DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
RECENT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WETTER WITH RAIN CHANCE
OF 40-60% REMAINING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL HIGH IS NOT BRINGING IN AS MUCH DRY AIR
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN FACT, OUR ENVIRONMENT
THERMODYNAMICALLY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THUS, EVEN WITH OUR FORCING MECHANISM (THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW) DISPLACED TO OUR SE, ANY SMALL BOUNDARIES OR OUTFLOWS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE PAIRED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS A THREAT EACH
DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF A STRAY STRONGER STORM OR
TWO. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
WHILE OUR THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN UNCHANGED, ONE THING THAT THE
APPROACHING RIDGE DOES LOOK TO IMPACT IS OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK
TO WARM FROM HIGH 80S ON THURSDAY TO THE LOW 90S BY MONDAY. WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, THIS WILL PUSH OUR HEAT INDICES NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS. ENSEMBLES REMAIN PESSIMISTIC REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF
HITTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN IMPORTANT FOR
THOSE OUTSIDE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN AL THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF IFR. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
BACK TO VFR LATE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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