943
FXUS64 KHUN 152258
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH MORE RECORD
SETTING WARMTH, AND MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH AREA
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. IN HUNTSVILLE,
THE HIGH HAS WARMED TO 90 DEGREES, EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 88 LAST SET IN 1924/1938/1947. THE TEMPERATURE IN MUSCLE SHOALS
MAY REACHED 91 DEGREES, WHICH WILL TIE THEIR OLD RECORD LAST SET
IN 2015. THERE IS ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF MORE HEATING POTENTIAL
BEFORE COOLING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMENCES. ONE LAST NIGHT OF
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOWS COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE,
AND REACH NW ALABAMA AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE WARM SPELL THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AS OF LATE WILL COME
TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN NW-SE MANNER
ACROSS THE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED (WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NE), THUS
AM EXPECTING A "DRY" FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEWER OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF
WAS HINTING AT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FELT AS SW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NW ALABAMA WHERE THE COOL AIR
ARRIVES EARLIER, TO AROUND 80 OVER THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT
ARRIVE LATER.
WHAT COULD BE CALLED "BLUSTERY" CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S, BUT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S BY THE
LATE EVENING. A STIFF NW-N FLOW OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COLDER TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SAT, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BY SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD ANTICYCLONE BRINGING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. NIGHT TIME LOWS BY SUN MORNING SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES TO
THE LOW/MID 40S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING MAINLY 38 DEGREES OVER LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES FALLING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO, WHICH WOULD BRING A FROST RISK. THIS
IS SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR.
THE START OF A NEW WEEK SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE SAT, RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME E-SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS MON SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS MON NIGHT MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S, AND INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WED. LOWS TUE
NIGHT AGAIN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS FORM NEAR
EITHER SITE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IS THE
TAF PACKAGE. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KTS FROM THE NW. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD,
WIND SHEAR LOOKS LIKELY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE ADDED IN A FUTURE
UPDATE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC
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