609
FXUS64 KHUN 220233 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
- INTO THE LATE WEEK, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER, AS WELL AS NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE HEADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 20 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IT
HOLD TOGETHER SHOULD REACH LINCOLN, MOORE, FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
THE 10-11 PM TIMEFRAME. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WEST OF METRO NASHVILLE. THE STATE OF THE
STORMS AS THEY REACH OUR AREA IS QUESTIONABLE. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE HINTED THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
THEY NEAR OUR AREA. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING THIS TREND, THEN HINTING
AT THEM INTENSIFYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN TO NW ALABAMA
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. STAYING ON MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE, WE
CAN EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY MORE TO
THE NORTH), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING
RISKS SHOULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT IF THE WEAKENING TREND HOLDS.
OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, EXPECT ONE MORE HUMID AND
MUGGY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S.
THESE SHOWERS WERE PRECEDING A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WAS NOTED ROUGHLY FROM SE OHIO, TO SW KENTUCKY, AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUING HEADING SOUTHBOUND,
REACHING NW ALABAMA WED MORNING, AND ADVANCING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE COURSE OF DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT
IN NOT AS HOT CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITERIA (MID 90S TO 103 DEGREES), SO NO MORE HEAT ADVISORIES, AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FILTER ACROSS THE
AREA WED NIGHT, WITH LOWS A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE FROM THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70. THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THU INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND EAST OF I-65. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. HIGH ENOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S. MORE COMFORTABLE LOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THU NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A TAD WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A FEW FEATURES TO WATCH WILL BE HOW REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOW THESE TWO FEATURES
INTERACT WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME
PERIOD AND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. IF THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER
THE AREA AND STALLS, THE FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DIVE INTO DETAILS AS IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS EARLY THIS WEEKEND, IT'S
HIGHLY ENCOURAGED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES. OTHERWISE, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING PATTERN AS HIGHS BEGIN
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED AT KMSL FOR A LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BETWEEN 08-10Z WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A PROB30 GROUP IS IN
PLACE AT KHSV LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC
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