428
FXUS64 KHUN 221736
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 948 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
THANKS TO A FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES ON SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- LATE THIS WEEK, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW-MEDIUM FLASH
FLOODING THREAT MAY EVOLVE DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN EXTREMELY MOIST, TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ESE THIS MORNING AND IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN TENNESSEE.
RADAR SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
LIKELY MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY (WITH PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON) AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS WILL BE THE DENSE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, LIMITING HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD MORE BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUD COVER, IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT A LOCALLY STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD GET GOING (MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.1", ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN GET GOING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE
WPC HAS DENOTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOT TOO MUCH OF A
CONCERN TONIGHT, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OR VERY NEAR
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO GEORGIA. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TS BERTHA WILL GRADUALLY GET FUNNELED INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE THE POP
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT, AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%)
POPS WILL BE PRESENT, WITH POTENTIALLY 70-80% CHANCES NOTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA (CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY). ONCE AGAIN, WPC HAS
DENOTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) ELSEWHERE. PWATS AROUND
2.2" WILL AGAIN CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS. THE BOUNDARY MAY PIVOT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM-HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS WINDOW. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAINFALL OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY, WE COULD BE EVEN MORE PRIMED FOR
AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC HAS EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH THE THOUGHT THAT 2-3 DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOW FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE
ONE MINOR SILVER LINING: THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER, MITIGATING ANY HEAT THREAT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A FEW FEATURES TO WATCH WILL BE HOW REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOW THESE TWO FEATURES
INTERACT WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME
PERIOD AND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. IF THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER
THE AREA AND STALLS, THE FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DIVE INTO DETAILS AS IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS EARLY THIS WEEKEND, IT'S
HIGHLY ENCOURAGED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES. OTHERWISE, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING PATTERN AS HIGHS BEGIN
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND INCREASE
IN SHRA WILL CREATE LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HELPING THESE SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP IS A
STALLED FRONT THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AT BOTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WHEN
TSRA COVERAGE INCREASES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24
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