812
FXUS64 KHUN 170311
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT.
- NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH) WILL
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS IN A
FEW WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST
AL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NOW SITS COMFORTABLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S AS OF 9PM WITH BREEZY
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS WE HAVE FELT SINCE
SPRING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT AS WE SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES BUT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURE WISE THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO THIN OVER THE AREA, LEAVING PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE SHOULD SEE THE SUN
RETURN BY AROUND NOON TOMORROW WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ENJOY THE FALL WEATHER!
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. ONE THING
WE WILL BE MONITORING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN
SHELTERED AND HIGH ELEVATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS AS
TEMPS DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TN
AND NORTHEAST AL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE VERY NICE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH
DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL LARGELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND INTO THE SOUTH THIS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
PUSH EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH THIS NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
BY LATE WEEK AS THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE THE REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. ULTIMATELY, IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO GRAB AT LEAST
A LIGHT JACKET WHEN HEADING OUT THE DOOR THIS WEEK!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MID
LEVEL STRATUS DECK FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO NW AL
CURRENTLY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS,
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, AND
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40KTS AT 2KFT FOR KMSL
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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