030
FXUS64 KHUN 032247
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- POCKETS OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN STORM IMPACTS.
- AFTER A BREAK THIS EVENING, RAIN (AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL REDEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE (AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY IN A
FEW LOCATIONS) LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW RISK FOR FLASH AND
AREAL FLOODING WILL EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD.
- A COLD FRONT WILL USHER A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH (BISECTING THE CWFA
FROM SW-TO-NE) WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CULLMAN, MARSHALL,
AND DEKALB COUNTIES (WHERE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE L-M 80S HAVE
ALREADY LED TO AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE PER SPC MESOANALYSIS). TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 0Z, WITH DRY
BUT WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DEEP-
LAYER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID- LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND RAIN (ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS) PRIOR TO SUNRISE TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE RATHER MILD AND IN THE 65-70F RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
HIGH (INITIALLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES) WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE LOW REMAINS ORIENTED IN A SW-TO-NE FASHION
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TN THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND RELATED SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MB. ALTHOUGH
LIGHT-MODERATE NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE
CONFLUENCE AXIS IS ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER SURFACE PARCELS
SOUTHWESTWARD, THE THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH TIME ACROSS TN/KY.
SHALLOW ASCENT (DRIVEN BY VEERING FLOW UP TO 5000 FT AGL TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY) WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS POCKETS OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ON ITS COOL SIDE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, BUT A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER
WILL PERMIT STRONGER INSOLATION AND HIGHS IN THE M80S), MLCAPE MAY
REACH 500-1000 J/KG, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS, WE WILL BE LOWERING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TO REPRESENT MAX VALUES IN THE M-U 70S.
DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF STORM
ORGANIZATION, THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH/AREAL
FLOODING GIVEN PWAT VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 2".
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES) WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. HOWEVER, AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN OT, THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETREAT FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN LA COAST. STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER WAA (AIDED BY MID-LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-25
KNOTS) WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN REGION-WIDE BETWEEN 6-9Z, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN,
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 65-70F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ASCENT
AMIDST TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH UVMS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
AND DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER WAA, PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR FLASH/AREAL FLOODING DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AND CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG MAY RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROADER STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION REGIME.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NW-TO-
SE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR FLOODING MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST AND PRECIPITATION WILL END LAST (PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY).
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH
WILL MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH STRENGTHENING N-NE FLOW ADVECTING A
DRIER AIRMASS (FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S-L50S) INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION, A NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH A DEVELOPING CAD EVENT ACROSS VA/NC.
HOWEVER, WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN GA, WE WILL ONLY MENTION POPS IN THE
5-10% RANGE AND ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS REGION-WIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE M-U 70S TOMORROW, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE L-M 80S ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REIGN FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND CONTROLS THE
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS, DAILY HIGHS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 80 TUE AND WED, AND IN THE MID 80S THU AND
FRI. WITH LONGER NIGHTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FALL SEASON,
LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE LOW/MID 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING, BUT IF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OCCUR, THEN FOG WOULD BE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW, LEFT OUT
OF CURRENT FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW
TO SE STARTING AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH
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