102
FXUS64 KHUN 040019
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY, DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TODAY (MAINLY FROM 2 PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS).
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-60% FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ERUPTED AT MIDDAY AND HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BULK OF IT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
HAS BEEN EAST OF HIGHWAY 231, NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, AND IN FAR
NORTHWEST AL. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES BEING KNOCKED DOWN HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING AT THIS POINT. THE STABILIZING
EFFECT OF THE OUTFLOWS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF STORMS AS WE MOVE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS OVER MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CONCENTRATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR NNW OVER SE MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AREA. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL AS A RESULT. GIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODELS THOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE HIGHER OF THOSE CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NW ALABAMA.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR ENE REALLY WEAKENS (CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS
FROM 594 MB TO 591 MB) ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOWER, MORE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, WITH FOCUSING OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HEAT INDEX
IN REALITY MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB OVER 105 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHEAR CONTINUES TO
REMAIN WEAK IN GUIDANCE SO FAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES BECOME
MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SO, NOT LOOKING LIKE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE CARDS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER,
STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT FORCING ALONG WITH A VERY SATURATED
PROFILE/GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
TAP INTO. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER (88-93) DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MORNING LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20-40% AT NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (TO OUR NORTH) MAY LEAD
TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE
MAIN STORM IMPACTS AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
POCKETS OF LGT RA (REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION) WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN THRU 2Z BEFORE DISSIPATING, AND
WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA APPEARS UNLIKELY THRU SUNRISE. AS AN
OVERCAST LAYER OF DEBRIS CLOUDS BEGINS TO DISPERSE ~4Z, LGT/VRBL-
CALM FLOW AND GROUND MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
(WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS BTWN 8-12Z). AT
THIS POINT, COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
BE GREATEST TO THE NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, FEW-SCT CU CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BENEATH A SCT LAYER OF CI.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...70/DD
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