239
FXUS64 KHUN 170112
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
ON WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE HEATRISK ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH FORECAST HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
90-100F.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING OVER NORTH ALABAMA (MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER), BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH CALM
WINDS AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER,
THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS
AND VALLEYS. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NORTH
ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW MUCH
FOG IS REALIZED. FOR NOW, NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT
MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITY
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA). ALSO,
EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL
BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL AGAIN BE
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL THEREFORE BE THE WARMER CONDITIONS. NWS
HEATRISK REACHES MODERATE LEVEL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BETWEEN 95-100F. WET BULB
GLOBE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY, IT WILL BE A FAIR BIT WARMER THAN
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. THESE VALUES DO NOT QUITE REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA; BUT, REGARDLESS, PLEASE REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WORK OUTSIDE. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. NEVER LEAVE
PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLATED TO
APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER NORTH ALABAMA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY;
HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION,
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (70-90%) THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
THEN DECREASING INTO THE 60S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, ALONG WITH ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WILL BE THE BIG
THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS HOW FAST THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION (AND THEIR EVENTUAL INTERACTION) WILL
HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE HERE IN NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IF THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS ACTUALLY MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS AND OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ALIGNS WITH THIS, THEN
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR SOUTH.
MODEL PROBABILITIES TODAY INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-40%) OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH SHOWED A 50-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL
GREATER THAN AN INCH (AND 30-40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES).
STAY TUNED AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES AND
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
OVERALL, REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SINCE MODEL
PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.7 INCHES TO AT LEAST 2.0 INCHES (SOME SPOTS
MAY SEE VALUES OVER 2 INCHES). THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY RIGHT
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER WHEN COMPARED WITH BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS LINES UP WITH WPC'S SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO) DUE TO ADEQUATE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. ULTIMATELY, PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED
ROADS!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
(5-15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN PLACE, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH TO GET ANY POSTPONED YARD
WORK DONE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DRIER FORECAST WON'T LAST LONG. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START BACK UP ON FATHER'S DAY/SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES SLIDING
THROUGH AND A SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH
VALLEY. LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO
WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR LOW CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR
LATE TONIGHT. LOWER VIS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
15-20 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26
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