253
FXUS64 KHUN 241724
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM SE CANADA WAS THE
MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. COOLER AIR FROM
THIS HIGH FILTERING SOUTHWARD WAS UPGLIDING, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LOWER-48. THE RAP MODEL WAS
SHOWING UPGLIDE IN THE 300K REGION WITH RESULTANT CLOUD BASES
RANGING FROM ~800FT TO 2500FT AGL. A FEW SPOTS OF CLEAR SKIES WERE
NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THE ON-GOING
UPGLIDE, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL
OCCUR, BUT AM EXPECTING CLOUD BASES TO RISE TO OR ABOVE VFR (3000
FT AGL) THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
TO SOME EXTENT, CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, AS LOWS FALL INTO MID 50S SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO LOW/MID 60S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
DIMINISHES, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG - SOME OF IT DENSE. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE UPDATED GRIDS,
FOLLOWING WHAT SOME OF THE MOS WAS HINTING AT. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IF THE FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A NOR'EASTER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD, REMAINING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT SYSTEM. BUT A NORTHERLY FLOW
ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE, MAKING
FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. AM EXPECTING
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON FRI (WITH THE UPGLIDING PERSISTING). THUS
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EVEN
COOLER FRI NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S SHELTERED VALLEYS
TO MID/UPPER 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, EXPECT HIGHS SAT RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL DAMPEN, KEEPING TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AS THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR LOCAL WEATHER. THE DAMPENING RIDGE PAIRED
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO
HIGH 80S EACH DAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM IN THE FORM OF A PASSING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO INDUCE SOME WEAK
RETURN FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO BRIEFLY BREAK BACK INTO THE 90S
ON TUESDAY, THIS HOWEVER IS CONTINGENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT. IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT
INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES MAY KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY BELOW 90.
CURRENTLY KEPT BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES, WHICH SUPPORT
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING ABOUT A WEEK OUT, TIMING AND
IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE MVFR CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR
OVERNIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE BEFORE SUNRISE. A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED FOR THE MAIN FOG WINDOW
OF 10-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS DUE TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE. MVFR CUMULUS CIGS RETURN IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...30
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