549
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BUILD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES LIKELY, AND
POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY.
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
LOOKS LIKE THE MORNING CONVECTION DID NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MUCH AT ALL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONGOING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-
SEVERE, BUT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE HAD
DECENT CORES TO THEM. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON (AND LIKELY FILL IN OVER NW AL) AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LARGE HAIL DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THE MOMENT AS WELL AS
THE FREEZING LEVEL BEING HIGH (~16KFT). MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS! THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALSO DAMPENED THE HEAT, SO NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET (OR EVEN APPROACHED)
TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MERELY IN THE 80S AT PRESENT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING,
WITH NO RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO CALM
WINDS, LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, AND POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION, BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF LOOKS TO MEANDER TO THE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS MAY PREVENT THE RIDGE FROM BUILDING
INTO OUR AREA QUITE AS MUCH. ALTHOUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE APPALACHIANS ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO,
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) ON MONDAY LOOK TO DECREASE BY
TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY LOW (10-30%, HIGHEST OVER NE AL AND TN
COUNTIES). SPC DID CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED
TO OUR NORTHEAST. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AS HIGH HUMIDITY
PERSISTS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (APPROACHING UPPER 70S IN SOME
LOCATIONS) MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MUCH LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY),
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DAMPEN HEAT A BIT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND WBGTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO PINPOINT THAT THIS DAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-109 DEGREE RANGE, ALONG
WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) AND WBGTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A STRONG MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP A ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CORN BELT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DELIVERING NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, "RIDGE RIDER" MCSS MAY START TO CLIP OUR AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN THIS PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AND VIS. GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED IN
THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH NO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WHAT WE'LL NEED TO WATCH TONIGHT IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AT
BOTH TERMINALS, WITH INSTANCES OF IFR AS WELL (SUCH AS AT HSV).
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY IF DENSE
FOG FORMS. ANY FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
(OUTSIDE OF STORMS) THIS AFTERNOON TO DECREASE TO BE CALM THIS
EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26
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