315
FXUS64 KHUN 311521
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH HIGHER AMOUNT TO 3 INCHES ON SATURDAY
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STRETCHES ALL THE WAY SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A
RELATIVELY COOLER START TO THE DAY, BUT UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE IT
IS EXPECTED TO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MOISTURE RETURN
GRADUALLY INCREASES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND A RESULT, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
TONIGHT, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO
OK/TX. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD, THE LLJ RAMPS UP ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO OUR WEST IN MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE AND ARRIVE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LINE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES, ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAIN RATES
(1-2" PER HOUR) THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT FROM THE ATTENDANT LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE MORNING HIRES GUIDANCE, TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS
AROUND 2 PM ACROSS NW AL, 4 PM NORTH-CENTRAL AL, AND 6 PM FOR NE
AL AND EXITING THE AREA AROUND 8-9 PM.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LINE. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD CLOVER WILL
LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAST WE DESTABILIZE AND IF PRECIP STICKS AROUND
LONGER THAN EXPECTED, THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO GET SUFFICIENT HEATING, THEN MULTICELL CLUSTERS
COULD FORM INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND GOOD
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH. THEREFORE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW
CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WOULD BE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE
THERE WOULD BE MORE TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, THE SPC HAS PLACED THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA IN A LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) OUT OF 5 RISK.
WITH PWS OVER 2 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
IS ALSO A CONCERN. WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN, 1-2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED IN PORTIONS OF NE AL AS THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TOMORROW EVENING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN CLOUD THE COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LINGERING RAINFALL FROM AN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT FRONT THAT SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., BRINGING DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
NOW, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM POPS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITHIN ENSEMBLES. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) OVER THE AREA.
IF POPS AND COEXISTING CLOUD COVER TREND DOWN AS WE APPROACH NEXT
WEEK, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER, NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL
TERMINALS (ASIDE FROM LIGHT BR/FG WHICH MAY IMPACT HSV THRU 13Z).
LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SSW AND STRENGTHEN TO 5-10 KTS LATER
THIS MORNING AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA. THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
BOTH THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF AS/CS BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER,
RECENT MODEL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSRA WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE 8-12Z
TIMEFRAME (IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING WSW LOW-LEVEL JET)
AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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