488
FXUS64 KHUN 240018
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ANOTHER COLD DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING WHICH IS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE WINDS ARE
NOT AS BREEZY THOUGH, BUT STILL GUSTING 15-25 KTS, MAKING IT FEEL
MORE LIKE IT'S IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE WINDS WILL SLACK
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
ELIMINATE WIND CHILL CONCERNS TONIGHT, HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. ENSURE YOU DRESS IN LAYERS TO STAY WARM AND CHECK IN ON
PETS. A WARM UP IS ON THE WAY TOMORROW, BUT THE MORNING WILL
STILL BE CHILLY SO BE PREPARED FOR A COLD MORNING COMMUTE AND BUS
STOP.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO BE MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS THEREFORE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS (30-60%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION, EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW) DUE TO
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM; BUT, AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY
LOOKS VERY MEAGER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF
CAPE). IN FACT, MODEL PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 100 J/KG
ARE LESS THAN 10% OVER NW AL (COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST). THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY CLOSELY AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF INSTABILITY
GREATER THAN 300 J/KG ARE BETWEEN 20-40% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TN RIVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY, AS OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES.
ULTIMATELY, STAY WEATHER AWARE AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE
GET CLOSER AND FINER DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATED AND
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH (ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS
IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IN WHICH PORTION OF THE TROUGH THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
55-60F RANGE. AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FOCUSED AXIS OF MODERATE-
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LOW CAPE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (HIGHLIGHTED BY A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF
45-55 KNOTS), THIS MAY YIELD AN EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BAND OF SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. AND, AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
EXTENDED RANGE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT, EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID-ALANTIC STATES. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN THE L-M 60S BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO THE U60S-L70S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE MSL/HSV TERMINALS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH A NNW WIND THAT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE
5-10 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, A MINOR INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED BY 8Z WITH BKN-OVC CONDS DEVELOPING BY 16Z. ALTHOUGH A
SFC HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WILL INDUCE A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS BTWN 8-16Z,
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO LARGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
FZBR/FG (EXCEPT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 12Z AND IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LARGE WATER SOURCES). A SSW WIND OF 8G16 KTS
WILL MATERIALIZE BEYOND 16Z AS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST RETREATS FURTHER ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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