679
FXUS64 KHUN 030226
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
926 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY, AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
- MUCH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-65.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK; WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THE EARLIER BREEZY
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO UNDER 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WON'T
FALL BELOW THE MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE HELP TO
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. VERY
LIMITED FORCING WILL LARGELY HINDER ANY CONVECTION, BUT A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS (10-20%) MAY DEVELOP FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL REINFORCE THIS WARM, MILD AIR MASS -- KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A DEEPENING UPPER-LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KTS WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION (LIKELY IN A LINE), BUT
IT ALSO APPEARS VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL AS WELL ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IMPORTANT. SHOULD IT MOVE IN EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/JG) WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SHOULD THIS LINE MOVE IN A LITTLE
LATER, DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, INSTABILITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH LOWER, LIMITING THE THREAT. PWATS WILL REACH 1.4" TO
1.6", MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-80% DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE IT INCREASES TO AROUND 100% SATURDAY
EVENING (00-06Z) -- THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, A MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN OF 1" TO
1.5" IS FORECAST FOR THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON EASTER
SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A
NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE NORTHEAST, NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS THEN LOOKS TO QUICKLY PUSH
EAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUE ITS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS THEN SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY, BUT STILL STRETCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI.
OVERALL, THIS MEANS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AND A SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE COLDEST
NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE THING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES TREND
COLDER. ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN WARMER RECENTLY, IT'S NOT YET TIME TO
PACK AWAY WARMER CLOTHES! IN ADDITION, THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT) MAY BE CONCERNING FOR THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS OR EVEN THOSE WITH OUTSIDE PLANTS OR GARDENS.
THEREFORE, KEEP THAT JACKET HANDY AND TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY (OR UNFORTUNATELY, DEPENDING ON YOUR LIKE OR DISLIKE FOR
COLDER WEATHER) THIS "COLD SNAP" WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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