705
FXUS64 KHUN 100458
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS EVENING. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT, IT WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH, A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
FLASH FLOODING, AND A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AL FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING COUNTIES FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AT 10 PM HURRICANE ISAIAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
INTENSITY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION. TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 10 PM. DRY AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA (DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S). FURTHER NORTH AND SOUTH, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 55
TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
AS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AHEAD OF
THE HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO TO SATURATE DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE AREA MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH
OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT (MAYBE ~ 1-3 INCHES). WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15
GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE EDGE OF THE RAINFALL
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS. THESE WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND
MOVES NORTHWARD. EXPECT PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER) TO BEGIN
TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AROUND 1 AM. WINDS CLOSER TO THE
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER AND
MAY GUST TO OVER 58 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN (THUS A A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES). THIS WILL
LIKELY ALSO KICK IN AFTER 1 AM. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW THESE
CONDITIONS THROUGH 7 AM ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AS THE REMNANT
SURFACE LOW MOVES NW INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. HELICITY WILL BE HIGH
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
A BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TORNADIC STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE MANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS REMNANT LOW, THE TORNADO
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM, CAN'T RULE OUR A VERY LOW TORNADO
THREAT, MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE VERY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID 60S (WEST) TO LOWER 70S (EAST).
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAKENING SATURDAY. THIS MAY WEAKEN BELOW
CRITERIA BY THE EVENING HOURS, ENDING THE NEED FOR ANY CONTINUED
WIND PRODUCTS SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT (THOUGH INTENSITY
LOOKS MUCH LIGHTER).
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SW WEST VIRGINIA BY
THEN. MANY MODELS SHOW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW INTO OUR NE ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COUNTIES TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
LATER IN THE DAY, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. MORNING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. EXPECT THE COOLEST CONDITIONS EAST OF I-65, WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BREAK UP THE LATEST IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE
AL/MS BORDER EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUNNY SKIES AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES SOME
SLIGHT PROGRESS PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN STOUT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SETUP OVER MUCH OF
TENNESSEE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONSISTENCY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE DOES PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO TO
THE AREA THAT IS MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO (AND THROUGH) THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS (BETWEEN
30-40 KTS) OUT OF THE ENE TO ESE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES, ALONG WITH LLWS OF 50-60 KTS AT 2 KFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
BROAD AREA OF RA/+RA WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT TO 1000 FT. AWWS MAY
BE NEEDED IF THUNDER DEVELOPS AT EITHER SITE, BUT THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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