973
FXUS64 KHUN 291000
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST KS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE RESULT IS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL ENABLE WARM AND MOIST
AIR TO CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY EXPAND
OVER MS, BUT THEN DECAY SOMEWHAT INITIALLY UPON REACHING AL AND
MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN LOW TO MID LEVELS FURTHER EAST. BY THIS
EVENING, FURTHER MOISTENING WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
WHEN POPS WILL BE GREATEST. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERS.
DESPITE CLOUD COVER INCREASING TODAY, A HEAD START IN THE 60S
WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
FOR HIGHS FAIRLY EASILY TODAY. AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH SIMILAR LEVELS
DURING THE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION REGIME
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE PREDICTED TO VEER TO SSW AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW (RELATED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH)
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MI
VICINITY BY 0Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A PLUME OF MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON BENEATH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ALTHOUGH OUR CWFA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE LOW'S TRAILING COLD FRONT, WITH SEPARATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE FRONTAL WAVE NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH
OF CONVECTION INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME (AND OFF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT) SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY BE MORE OF
AN ISSUE TO OUR NORTH. ALSO, MODELS HINT THAT A DEVELOPING MCS
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX (WHICH SHOULD ALSO EXPAND AS IT BUILDS
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AR AND INTO NORTHERN
MS) WILL BECOME MORE A CONCERN FOR US. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION, IT
APPEARS AS IF THE RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN THE 5-7Z TIMEFRAME (NW) AND SHOULD END IN THE 11-13Z TIMEFRAME
(SE). ENLARGED CAPE PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL
(POTENTIALLY 1-2" IN DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
(UP TO 60-65 MPH) WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAZARDS. THE
RISK FOR TORNADOES IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY VEERED AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH INDICATIONS OF 35-45 KNOT WSW FLOW
AT THE 850-MB LEVEL, A FEW LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REGARDLESS OF
REGIME (SQUALL LINE OR MCS). FINALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
(PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2-2.5") MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE EVENT, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS ALONG WITH MODEST NW FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A COOLER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S-L70S. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE CONVECTION AND FRONT ACTUALLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MAINLY JUST THE NAM12 IS
SHOWING THIS SOLUTION. IF IT DID SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION IN
PLACE IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA, THEN A SECONDARY
PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS VERY LOW GIVEN MOST GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT MORE
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL MAKE FOR A
MILD AND DRY DAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FROM THERE, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. LONG TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE LARGE RUN TO RUN SHIFTS REGARDING THE WARM SECTORED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. IF
ONE OF THE UPPER WAVE DISTURBANCES RESULTS IN A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
TRENDED TO KEEP THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES, BUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FAVORING A WARM AND WET WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED A 500 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF TODAY. SCATTERED -SHRA
ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER 20Z WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO
030-040AGL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ABRUPTLY BELOW 010AGL (IFR) BY
02Z AS -SHRA EXIT TO THE EAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
APRIL 5TH-6TH. PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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