009
FXUS64 KHUN 300440
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 936 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE WEST, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FRIDAY AS
RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH RISING DEW POINTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SUBSEQUENTLY, LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE ON
THIS IN THE LONG TERM BELOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM WE WILL BE BEGINNING A PATTERN
CHANGE. TO OUR WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN ITS SWING
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING EAST. SEVERAL DAYS OF WEAK WAA WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, COME FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL
HAVE AN INCREDIBLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT PRESENT, PRIMING US FOR A
WEEKEND OF FLOODING CONCERNS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND PWATS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY (2"+). THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WITH
PERSISTENT FORCING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH
RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) ARE IN THE FORECAST ALL WEEKEND. MODELS
INDICATE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL ARISE IF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS SUCH, WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE QPF TOTALS DUE TO THE FACT THE FRONT AND
PARENT TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. SHOULD THE
SYSTEM COME THROUGH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, QPF AMOUNTS
COULD TREND DOWN.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER LOW RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER LOOK TO LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER PAIRED WITH THE SLOW
INFILTRATION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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