528
FXUS64 KHUN 090448
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM (30-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECT ON THURSDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 95 TO 100
DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA EARLIER HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO NW GA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY
THAT STRETCHES WSW FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS MARSHALL COUNTY TO
JUST EAST OF THE COLUMBUS, MS RADAR. 1500 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG SEEM
TO STILL BE IN PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NW TENNESSEE HAS DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY 1 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO FORM QUICKLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IF WE SEE DENSE FOG THAT LASTS
VERY LONG OR IS WIDESPREAD IN NATURE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES TONIGHT.
BASED ON SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS, THINK THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS EVENING, BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING FROM A TROUGH AXIS ALOFT THAT MOVES FROM NW MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BREAK UP CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPS SOME
SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA
AFTER 2 OR 3 AM. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE WILL NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 1 OR
2 AM, BEFORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AND STRONGER FORCING MOVES MORE
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME ONE WILL BE NEEDED.
LITTLE SHEAR IS SHOWN AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NW ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BASED ON
CURRENT SBCAPE SEEN IN ANALYSIS, THINK SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL
BE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO. SO, MAINTAINED A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PUSH EAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 1 PM.
HOWEVER, A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
THURSDAY. AGAIN, INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR ANY SEVERE
MICROBURSTS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 91 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SOONER THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH ESE THROUGH FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST(40-80%) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SBCAPE
CLIMBS HIGHER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 J/KG IN MOST GUIDANCE.
BETWEEN THE BETTER INSTABILITY, LIFT, AND SOME SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 30 AGAIN,
SEVERE MICROBURSTS SEEM POSSIBLE. AGAIN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 91 DEGREES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE SET ON THIS PATTERN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL AND NE TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BE AMPLE
INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WHEN YOU WAKE UP SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S. A MEDIUM TO
HIGH (30-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS CHALLENGED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN PVE WITH THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY PEAKING DURING DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2",
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEATRISK IN THE MINOR (LEVEL 1) CATEGORY WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS IN THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, BUT WILL
NOT BE AS DANGEROUS OVERALL COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT ZERO DEGREES. GIVEN THAT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, INCLUDED MVFR
VSBY REDUCTIONS AS BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT (06Z TO
08Z AT KMSL AND 06Z TO 10Z AT KHSV). EXPECT -SHRA AND -TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER BOTH TERMINALS (~ 8Z AT KMSL AND ~10Z AT KHSV). THIS
SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING, BUT KEEP MVFR VSBYS IN PLACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z AT KMSL AND 14Z AT KHSV.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 13Z AT KMSL AND 15Z AT KHSV. A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS WAS INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW
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