365
FXUS64 KHUN 072239
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF AND IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE AL/FL COASTLINE. ISAIAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS AND A LOW RISK OF FLOODING TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MOST OF AREA
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN NW AL WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S. TONIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF FOG EXISTS (ISOLATED TO AGRICULTURAL
AREAS) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE WARM, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, A PATTERN
SHIFT IS AHEAD AS WE TRACK TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS THROUGH THE GULF.
BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA. WHILE THERE IS A DETAILED DISCUSSION ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
BELOW, WE'D LIKE TO REITERATE THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS TO THE TN VALLEY. BE SURE TO
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AS WE APPROACH
THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATE AT 514 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026...
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED AS OF THE 09Z UPDATE. A FASTER
MOVEMENT AND TRACK THROUGH AL INTO MIDDLE TN IS NOW FORECAST,
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACTFUL GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
POTENTIAL HURRICANE WEAKENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF OUTER BANDS OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE FASTER MOVEMENT. THE FASTER MOVEMENT MAY LESSEN RESIDENCE TIME
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD KEEP THE FLOOD RISK LOW.
NEVERTHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW RISK OF FLOODING DUE
TO TROPICAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED
AND WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY WPC FOR DAYS 3-4.
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AS NOTED ABOVE, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED IN THE GULF AND
WILL BE THE FEATURE OF FOCUS THAT WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS STORM IS OFFICIALLY FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO (AND EVENTUALLY COMES ASHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING), IT WILL BE INTERACTING AND
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TROPICAL
WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY INTO A
DEPRESSION OR LOWER BY THE TIME IT MOVES THIS FAR NORTH. HOWEVER,
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL
ADIVOSRY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE IMPORTANT. IF IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND THEN SWINGS NORTH OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS, THIS WOULD PLACE OUR AREA IN THE DEVELOPING DRY
SLOT -- LOWERING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND KEEPING ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TROPICAL TORNADO THREAT TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, IT IT WERE TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER WEST, WITH THE
REMNANT CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI,
THIS COULD PUT US IN LINE FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AND AT
LEAST A LOW TORNADO THREAT. BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE TRACK WILL
COME TO LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM FORMS AND ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, RESIDENTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SHOULD BE AWARE AND PREPARED FOR A POTENTIALLY WINDY/RAINY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND STAY TUNED AND UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION -- ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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