157
FXUS64 KHUN 141707
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN US. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR (PWATS AROUND 0.6" PER THE LATEST GOES TPW
IMAGERY) WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. WE LOOK TO WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND A STOUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A FEW BOUTS OF H85-H5 ENERGY TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THESE FEATURES
WILL QUIETLY PASS THROUGH WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
LEFT IN IT'S WAKE. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LIKELY. THE LATEST HREF HINTS AT A MODERATE
CHANCE (50-60%) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT HEADING OUR WAY AS THE
GREAT LAKES LOW SLIDES EAST. GENERAL CONSENSUS PLACES THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY MID DAY SUNDAY,
MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE A ~35 KNOT LLJ USHERING IN A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE LATE THIS WEEKEND BUT CHANCES A PRETTY LOW. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WE KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST DATA FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATES THAT A COMPACT 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT LOWER
LATITUDES. ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEAMPLIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAST THE REMNANT VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM'S DECAYING
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING, PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THIS AXIS OF RAIN AND WEAK CONVECTION WILL SETUP TO OUR NORTHWEST
(FROM TO OZARKS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY). AS A WEAK TRAILING
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING). WITH WNW FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE MID-
LEVELS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD RAISE CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, BUT CAPE
EVEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW DUE TO
PRECEDING CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE U60S-L70S, WITH LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO SW AND INCREASE TO 45-55 KNOTS AS AN AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION (BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND EVENTUAL
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY). AS A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS, WITH THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25
KNOTS LIKELY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...99/TC
SHORT TERM....99/TC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...99/TC
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