394
FXUS64 KHUN 061314
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING DUE
TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK, AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RISING UP TO
105-109 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.
- NOT AS HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM LABOR DAY INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 813 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS FINALLY WANED AS WE BEGIN
THE DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
THIN OUT THIS MORNING AND THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT/HUMID
DAY, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER THING WE'LL NEED TO WATCH IS A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON (20-30%) AS CONVECTION MAY
REDEVELOP ON A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FROM FORCING
PROVIDED FROM A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH DOWNBURSTS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT (GIVEN
THE VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, AND
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400 J/KG). THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY
2 TO 10 PM -- AND WHILE COVERAGE LIKELY WON'T BE ALL THAT HIGH WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVERY STORM THAT DEVELOPS CLOSELY. AFTER
CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING, MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND A SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
419
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KNOCK
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES (UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) AND
LOWER NWS HEAT RISK VALUES TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4). THUS, HEAT
PRODUCTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
BE SURE TO CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS
IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER THAN A ROGUE STORM
OR TWO OVER THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA, A VAST MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON LABOR DAY, WITH POPS AROUND 10-20% --
AND LOWERING TO 5-10% ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER FEATURE TO
WATCH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, A WEAK RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS IN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AND BRING
SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN TURN, WEAK CAD WILL ADVECT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BY EARLY TO MID WEEK AND ALLOW LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS (30% OR LESS) EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SFC HIGH OFFICIALLY SETS UP. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. BEYOND THE LONG TERM, THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS US IN AN AREA FOR LIKELY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THEREFORE, RELIEF
FROM THIS HEAT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A WEAKENING TREND WERE NEARING KMSL AT TAF
ISSUANCE. VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AS THEY PASS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING EXPECTED WILL BRING A RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FORMING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. GIVEN HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION IN THE TAF. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
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