764
FXUS64 KHUN 211042
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 817 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (DISCUSSION
IN THE SHORT TERM BELOW). HOWEVER, DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO
DECREASE FROM THE NBM OUTPUT DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
TURN, RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 25-30%. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ALLEVIATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 70S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, N-NW FLOW IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST
AS A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS AND BUILDS LATITUDINALLY IN THE PLAINS,
AND A TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
SPRAWLED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS A RESULT KEEPING NEAR
SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. FRIDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER (A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES) WITH A BIT
MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THIS COOLER PORTION OF THE
RIDGE/WEDGE INFLUENCE ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
BY SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL HAVE
STRETCHED AND AMPLIFIED UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUT ALSO
PROGRESSED EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL LARGELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE, MOVING ALONG THE FLOW OF A PARENT TROUGH
SPANNING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS
TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAILING FRONT FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO SWING OVER CANADA TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ULTIMATELY, DRY WEATHER
WILL COMPRISE MUCH OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN REGARDING ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND INTO
MIDWEEK, BUT WE WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAKE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VERY ISOLATED FOG/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAS DEVELOPED AT KHSV THIS
MORNING, ALLOWING IFR CONDITIONS TO BE ADDED AS A TEMPO WITH 2SM
VISIBILITIES. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS. AT KMSL, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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