676
FXUS64 KHUN 151814
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
114 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT THIS
HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT, WITH GUSTS OF
15-20KT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 79-86 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 30-35% RANGE. A 5H
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO IN,
WESTERN KY AND AR VERY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ENTER
WESTERN TN AS WELL, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWEST
AL BEFORE MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, A WEST-EAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OF AROUND 10 DEGREES IS EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN EASTERN
JACKSON, DEKALB AND CULLMAN COUNTIES, UP TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN FAR
WESTERN LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES PUSHING EASTWARDS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (10-40%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER (30-40%) FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE AND WILL RESULT IN
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR MOST, GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10. ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH IS
AROUND 13-16 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SET IN 2006 OF 90 DEGREES AT HSV AND
92 AT MSL. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. BE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER ON FRIDAY AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
LAKE MI INTO THE JAMES BAY VICINITY ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE (EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS). STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE CYCLONES WARM SECTOR, AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER WARM DAY
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR OUR REGION. LATEST EXTENDED
RANGE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-DAY NEAR A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KY INTO NORTHERN MS, AND ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWFA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS AS IF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A LAYER OF
WARM/STABLE AIR ALOFT (ROOTED AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL) FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY EVENING AS A
NARROW AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 60S SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING 500-MB TROUGH. SHOULD AN UPDRAFT BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY TALL TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL BE
INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS, BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, WE EXPECT GENERALLY WEAK/LOW- TOPPED
CONVECTION, FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT POSTFRONTAL
RAIN, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.25" (SE) TO
0.5-0.75" (NW).
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS ADVECTING A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE M-U 60S (EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE), FOLLOWED BY COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M 40S. PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE
EAST OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, THE ONSET OF SE
RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....TG
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17
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