585
FXUS64 KHUN 090653
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
153 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40% OR LESS) WILL RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A LOW RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES
- HEAT RISK INCREASES BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW AREAS OF LINGERING FLOODING CONTINUING IN NE AL. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND SKIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
CLEAR IN NW AL ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. CAMS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS, WHICH
SHOULD SET US UP FOR PATCHY TO DENSE FOG THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE ONE COULD BE
ISSUED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. USE CAUTION ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE AS VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD AND
BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE MORNING
HOURS (PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE TN RIVER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN RECENT
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A DRIER FORECAST, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ALLOWED THE
FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AND CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER ONE. THAT BEING SAID, A LOW RISK OF FLOODING DOES REMAIN
IF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY
IN NE AL WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED VERY SATURATED
SOILS). IN THIS AREA, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS CONTINUED
TO HOLD A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND RAIN
CHANCES SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF
RAIN LIMITED TO NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. OVERALL, OUR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS, WHICH WILL AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. WE CONTINUE TO URGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN
HYDRATED, AVOID OUTDOOR LABOR DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY
(IF POSSIBLE), AND WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT/COOL LAYERS. ADDITIONALLY,
AVOID LEAVING ANY PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY ALONG
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-103 DEGREES. ONE
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH FRIDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AND RETURNING RAIN CHANCES AFFECT THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD
FRONT TRAVELS AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES) AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS FORECAST REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WE REITERATE TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEVELOPING
NW FLOW ALOFT SPREADS DEBRIS CLOUDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CONVECTION
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WE WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR (AT LEAST UNTIL
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG LATE TUE EVENING). A FEW
SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR THIS AFTN REGION-WIDE, BUT CHANCES FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL
TAFS. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM SSE-SSW, WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS OF
5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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