350
FXUS64 KHUN 081319
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING BUT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BMX INDICATES A VERY MOIST (PW AROUND 2
INCHES) AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE (FORECAST CAPE OF AROUND 2600
J/KG) ENVIRONMENT. LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED. THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WET
DOWNBURSTS, MOSTLY SMALL HAIL AND INTENSE DOWNPOURS. SPOTTY MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST AL INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ONCE THE LOW LEVELS HEAT SUFFICIENTLY, SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD RESULT BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LOCATED FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AR INTO NORTH
TX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THIS FEATURE HAS CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AL THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOPS, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
IT'S A "RINSE AND REPEAT" FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON MONDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-70%) POP WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY,
THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS/EVENINGS. THE TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY LATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OVER 2") AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS, WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSE CONVECTION EACH DAY (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE) CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS,
IN ADDITION, HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 TO
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MOST OF THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS MORNING IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER NE AL. ALTHOUGH, THE VIS AT
MSL DID DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A BRIEF TIME. OVERALL, NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MUCH MORE THIS MORNING AND
ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED. LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS LOWER VIS AND CIGS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE OVERALL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE THING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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