718
FXUS64 KHUN 140038
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RISK OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A BROKEN COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP ESE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND (WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS) OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE GIVEN THAT WE'RE LOSING THE
SUN AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY WANE. HOWEVER,
WE'LL STILL HAVE MORE SUFFICIENT SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG EVEN AS LAPSE RATES REALLY WEAKEN. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 25-30 KTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THIS LINEAR
ACTIVITY LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 02-06Z BEFORE BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND
WEAKENING. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE ONE "WILDCARD"
SO TO SPEAK IS A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED NEAR THE GWX
RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ALABAMA, BUT SOME LOCALIZED STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY AND
IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES.
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 06Z, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TONIGHT'S CONVECTION
WILL LAY OUT A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS
A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
STORM ENVIRONMENT AND A SIMILAR SHEAR PROFILE WILL AGAIN FAVOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING TIMEFRAME. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN GIVEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THESE STORMS
WILL SHIFT NW TO SE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IN WAKE OF THE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FRONT PUSHING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, DROPPING POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FROM JUST 24-48 HOURS AGO. STILL, THINK THAT SOME LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST -- WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. THE MAIN STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THIS COOLER, DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. THUS, IT
WILL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAT IT HAS OF LATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS A LARGE, UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EASTWARD AND
FLATTENS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS APPEARS TO CHANGE COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK AND LARGELY PERSIST OVER THIS REGION
INTO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH FROPA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT A DRY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%)
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE BY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WITH LOWER BULK SHEAR ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY (ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING BY LATE WEEK. PWATS INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.7
INCHES ON THURSDAY TO OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THAT PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION,
EVEN WITH A BRIEF "DRIER" PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SATURATED (THE GROUND IS VERY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL). THUS, THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO EVEN SUB-SEVERE
WINDS, MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNED TREES. OVERALL, PLEASE
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
LASTLY, FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, IT'LL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES. LOWS WILL INCREASE TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE, BUT ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE COOLER (IN THE 60S) BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING
AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TERMINALS. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
WINDOW. THUS, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 02-06Z TO ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION. CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON (ADDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE IN
THE PERIOD). WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AND GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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