926
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT LOWER
CHANCES OF ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (20-40%).
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY).
- HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS MAINLY BEING PRODUCED BY
FORCING AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THIS
FEATURE EAST TODAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AREA.
EXPECT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW TODAY. HOWEVER, MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN NW ALABAMA THIS MORNING THAT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORCING IS NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
UPPER LOW THIS FAR SOUTH AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE NEAR
THIS UPPER LOW, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT (MAINLY BETWEEN
1/4 AND 1/2 OF A INCH WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS). THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR
A VERY COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY, BUT THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES MORE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AT THIS SAME
TIME A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER NE AL OR NORTHERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA, WHERE SOME
CLEARING COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WHEN YOU WAKE UP ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NW ALABAMA AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FURTHER EAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE IN NW
ALABAMA IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OCCURS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS IT DOES SO.
AGAIN, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN THOSE AREAS.
FURTHER WEST, SOME MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-65. THIS SHOULD PRESENT A SIMILAR
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS AND
AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DOES
SEEM TO CHANGE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN A BIT AND FORCES THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT
CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST MUCH NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. IN THOSE AREAS, STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO LINGER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BUILD MORE HEAT INTO NW ALABAMA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD START
TO INCREASE SOME AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE 95 TO 99
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CLOUD COVER MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS PULLED FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS A BIT
MORE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGH A BREAK FROM CLOUDS AND RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY IT SEEMS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT, ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED (VERY WEAK
FORCING). THIS TROUGH AXIS STALLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. BETTER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH BETTER
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 60 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BKN TO OVC
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. A PROB30 FOR -RA AND CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AT TIMES WAS INCLUDED FOR ACTIVITY WITH AN UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OF KMSL EARLY THIS
EVENING AROUND 2Z AND A BIT LATER AT KHSV BY AROUND 6Z. EXPECT
AFTER 2Z AT KMSL THAT ONLY HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND THEN
POSSIBLY BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS, LOWERED PREDOMINANT
VSBYS THERE TO 3SM BY 7Z WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF 1SM VSBYS (8Z TO
12Z - DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT). FURTHER EAST, WINDOW FOR HIGHER
CLOUDS & DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS MAY BE SHORTER. THUS, STARTED
PREDOMINANT 5SM VSBYS AT KHSV AROUND 8Z WITH A TEMPO PERIOD OF 2
SM (BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z). VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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