397
FXUS64 KHUN 121109
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 426 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MAX TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE
MID 90S AREAWIDE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
EARLY TODAY WILL LIMIT HEATING WHICH WILL LEAVE SOME DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN MANAGE TO
MUSTER ONCE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID
HEATING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY THAT WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BUMP IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT CAN OVERCOME
POTENTIALLY LIMITING INSTABILITY. A NUMBER OF CAMS ARE STILL
SHOWING SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, FOCUSING IN ON THE PRIME
AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 1 PM AND 7 PM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN LOW, 25 KNOTS OR LESS, LEADING TO LIMITED THREAT OF
ANY ORGANIZED, SEVERE WEATHER. A BRIEF STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY ALONG WITH ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
STORMS MOVING ALONG BUT ANY TRAINING STORMS WOULD RESULT IN A
HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING. THE AFORMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPS AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S
ACROSS NE AL TO LOW 90S ACROSS NW AL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNDOWN.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BUILD OVER
THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE THE RECENT RAIN, OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 70S, HEAT
INDICES WILL QUICKLY SURGE ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS HEAT WILL
STILL BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. MAKE
SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT AND SUN SAFETY!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN US. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
KEEPING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 97-104 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HEAT
SAFETY AND IF POSSIBLE LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ONE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE, POPS HAVE DECREASED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS WE CONTINUE TO
SEE SPOTTY -SHRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS
REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE AS THE TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
IFR, MVFR, AND VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE PERSISTENT
IMPROVEMENT BEGINS AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KHSV
AND KMSL BY AROUND 18Z. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE CONTINUED A VCSH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS OF RIGHT NOW. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD WRAP UP SHORTLY AFTER 13/00Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KG
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