277
FXUS64 KHUN 010150
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH HIGHER AMOUNT TO 3 INCHES ON SATURDAY
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THEN DECREASE TO LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) THROUGH MID
WEEK, WITH THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNING TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS EVENING AS LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT SUBSIDED AND ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-65. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
AIRMASS OVER THE TN VALLEY IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING
STORMS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW DIGS
SOUTH THROUGH IL AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO THE AREA AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER OH RIVER AND MS
RIVER VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DENSE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT, ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AROUND SUNRISE, THERE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WE
WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA RELATED TO A
DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND WE DO
EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT WHAT
HAPPENS LATER IN THE DAY, PRIMARILY REGARDING HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE
TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR SOUTH BUT LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A VERY LOW
RISK OF A TORNADO. THIS RISK WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON
THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING THE "MAIN ROUND" LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MORE CONFIDENT THREAT RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2" AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) WEST OF I-65. CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1-2" WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SOME RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS/STREAMS AND PONDING ON
AREA ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FLOODING THREAT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HI- RES GUIDANCE REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW AL WITH SOME GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING
INITIATION UNTIL CLOSE TO I-65. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN QPF
GUIDANCE, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
BOTTOM LINE - YOU WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. BE SURE TO MAKE
ARRANGEMENTS TO HEAD INDOORS QUICKLY IF LIGHTNING OR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA AND BE AWARE OF LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IF YOU PLAN TO BE ON THE ROAD.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE STORMS, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN IN/EASTERN KY BEFORE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE NO SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 0.1" WHICH SHOULD NOT
PROLONG ANY LINGERING FLOODING. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEEL A BIT REFRESHING AS WELL
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DICTATED BY THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DISAGREEMENTS, HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SO FAR IS THAT
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CREATE DAILY
LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE REALIZED, THE ONLY DAY THAT COULD SUPPORT A LOW
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LREF SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (SFC CAPE > 1000 J/KG)
ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL WARMING
PATTERN WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S/70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR THIS EVENING, BUT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR KMSL AS A DECAYING LINE
OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHTNING CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW BUT NOT 0, AND THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL ALSO
BE LOW THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGHER LIGHTNING CHANCES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT,
BUT FOR NOW HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS THE 09-11Z TIMING WINDOW.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DECAY
THIS EVENING, BUT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY
AFTER 06Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 8-9TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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