639
FXUS64 KHUN 101727
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95
TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A BUBBLING CU FIELD WITH
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR. THUS, SOME WEAK (BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HASN'T SHOWN THE ABILITY TO
SUSTAIN AN UPDRAFT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD RESULT IN A ROGUE STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE, HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS JUST A TOUCH INTO THE 10-20% RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET, CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT
FORECAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND THUS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. HEAT WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
PUSH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 97-103 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A BIT OF
A CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY FLATTENS AND A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY AID IN SOME LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (40-70%) COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER WON'T SUPPRESS THE HEAT TOO MUCH, WITH
LOWER 90S HIGHS STILL COMMON (ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING RISK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A RESULTANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO EXIST ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL GREATLY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA. A SFC HIGH CENTERED IN
THE GULF WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.5-2"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK ON SATURDAY AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS (PENDING
ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN TRENDS) WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ~1500 J/KG DURING DIURNAL HEATING BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM. DESPITE SHEAR REMAINING WEAK, A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS COULD EXIST IF FORCING MATERIALIZES FOR OUR AREA. RECENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORCING FOR STORMS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL ALSO BE OF CONTINUED CONCERN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND,
BE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND SOME SCT/BKN CU DECKS AROUND 3-5 KFT.
CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AFTER SUNSET, WITH CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24
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