531
FXUS64 KHUN 261051
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
551 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT
COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM, WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED
LATER IN THE WEEK.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
- A COLD FRONT (PRECEDED BY THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THROUGH THE NIGHT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PESKY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT JUST WON'T LEAVE. THE INCREDIBLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT PAIRED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED SOME
SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ON RADAR IN SOME CAPACITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF LIGHTNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE
AS THE PESKY FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH.
WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING, OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
PAST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF HIGH 70S DEW
POINTS FROM NW AL UP INTO THE MIDWEST. WEAK NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE HIGH DEW POINTS INTO NW AL.
BASED ON THE FACT WE SAW 79 DEGREE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON, I
FEEL IT IS ENTIRELY BELIEVABLE THAT FORECASTED HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL VERIFY AGAIN TODAY. WITH HIGH TEMPS AND HIGH DEW POINTS, HEAT
QUICKLY BECOMES A CONCERN. HEAT INDICES LOOK HIGHEST IN NW AL
WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS WILL RESIDE. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 7 PM. REGARDLESS OF LOCATIONS OF HEADLINES, WITH A HOT
WEAK AHEAD OF US, MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT
SAFETY!
OF COURSE IT WOULDN'T BE TRUE NW FLOW ALOFT IF I DIDN'T HAVE TO
ADDRESS THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIPPLE DOWN
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WITH EACH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
INITIATE STORMS IN THE MIDWEST. CURRENTLY, CAMS ARE A HOT MESS
WITH EACH DEPICTING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION TO WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
FIRE. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE
TO OUR NW BY THIS AFTERNOON. PENDING THE DETAILS OF THE MCS
INITIATION, WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND IN FACT, FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED...FEATURING A BROAD SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE TN VALLEY WILL LIE ESSENTIALLY AT THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE, ALTHOUGH CHARACTERISTIC "WOBBLING" OF THE BROAD RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO SOME CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD. FOR
MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE, MAY MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE
BROADER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE WARRANTED GIVEN SFC TEMP/DEW POINT
EXPECTATIONS. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE MCS OR
EVEN A TRAINING OF CONVECTION THAT LOOKS PLAUSIBLE, THE RAIN WOULD
LIMIT HEATING OF COURSE, BUT THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY COULD
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE FOR TUESDAY, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE AND EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION, A PLUME OF HOT AIR
EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID/UPR 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT 100 F DEGREES OR HIGHER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. HEAT INDICES COULD BREACH 110 F AS WELL WITH
WBGTS AT/ABOVE 90S IN MORE URBAN LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING ARE UNCLEAR AT
THIS POINT. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE TO SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MORE DIRECTLY FORCED BY THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY). FURTHERMORE, DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL
EXIST WITHIN A CONTRACTED HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND
THIS COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS
BRIEFLY FALLING INTO THE 60S AN PWAT VALUES FALLING TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 1" FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT (AND PERHAPS
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL). BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DEEP-LAYER
SSW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST) DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS/LOWER-OH VALLEY REGION AND A SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLAMISS
VICINITY. RICH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THIS OCCURS,
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
THROUGH THE TERMINALS AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS LOOK
TO LIFT NORTH AROUND 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE OR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG AND
LOW CEILING TOMORROW NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOG
CURRENTLY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ001-002.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RAD
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