159
FXUS64 KHUN 252142
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
442 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK FRONT STILL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ANY CLOUD COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS IT SHOULD BE A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 60S. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLOUDS (AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES 10-15% IN NW ALABAMA) MAY
INCREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY APPROACH
THE AREA. THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND COULD EASILY SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY -
SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH NEARLY THE
WHOLE PERIOD. CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS
IN THIS PATTERN WHICH GIVES ME VERY LITTLE FAITH IN THEIR CURRENT
OUTPUT. LIKEWISE, CAMS CURRENT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT
PASSING, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS ROUNDS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE FIRST OF
THESE LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN NW AL AROUND SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE IN NW AL HOWEVER MORNING
CONVECTION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOW THE AFTERNOON UNFOLDS. IF
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL OBTAIN ENOUGH
CAPE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR IF WE WILL SEE A TRUE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORWARD WITH EACH CAM
SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
MCS/AREAS OF STORMS. AS THE APPROACHING FRONT DRAWS NEAR BOTH OUR
DEW POINTS AND PWATS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OUR
PROLONGED ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. WE
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD WE WILL BE LACKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR SEVERE THREAT. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LACK THE ABILITY TO GET/STAY ORGANIZED AND
MAKE FOR A RATHER MESSY RADAR APPEARANCE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINTAINING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-
WIDE BY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR NOW, HOWEVER, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL ENCOURAGED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS. BE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK SHADE IF OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF TSRA IN FAR NORTHWEST AL ON WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17
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