491
FXUS64 KHUN 182003
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LOWER 70S BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SOME
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. MODELS
ARE STILL FORECASTING 925 MB WINDS TO PICK UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH TONIGHT. THUS, STILL BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL SETUP A
RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONGER OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. ALSO, EXPECT DRIER AIR TO PUSH WEST INTO THE AREA.
THUS, FOG OR FROST IS NOT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THAT WERE REACHED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
TO OCCUR. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY HIGHS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES,
BUT WILL RETROGRADE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
BRIEFLY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST
BACK INTO THE AREA, BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LARGELY MAINTAIN
ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGING, THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS DEVOID OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS AROUND 4 OR 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
EVENING INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP FOG AT
BAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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