091
FXUS64 KHUN 200548
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DEPEND
ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSUADE
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH RECENT CAMS HINTING AT A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
PRIMARILY IN NW AL AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING CONCERNS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. WPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS,
REACHING HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 0.75-1.25" DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN/BACKBUILD (WHICH IS LIKELY
WITH CURRENT CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES). ADDITIONALLY, STORM MOTION
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW (15 KTS OR LESS), WHICH WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK BACK
IN FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM SUBTROPICAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TO OUR NORTH, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SUBTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
BROADER TROUGH EXPECTED AT TIMES. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN NW
FLOW ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DISTURBANCES PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION EXPECTED TO BE
RETARDED BY A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. A MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED AIRMASS (FEATURING
PWAT VALUES OF 1.8-2" AND CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE) WILL
EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AND INTRUSION OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR) WILL
RESIDE, AND THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A DEVELOPING LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M-U 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
CIGS AROUND 20,000 FEET IN THOSE LOCATIONS. BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE, LOWER CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 7Z AT BOTH TERMINALS IN
THE 850 MB LAYER. THIS AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS. SOME SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KMSL AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, SO A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT ACTIVITY. SOME MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR WITH THAT ACTIVITY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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