700
FXUS64 KHUN 090456
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
- AS A MOIST AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AND REMAIN IN THE
20-50% CHANCE RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY) WILL DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAVANNAH VALLEY
OF GA/SC. HOWEVER, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GENERAL
INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE, WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND
SUBSIDENCE DRYING ALOFT MAINTAINING PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.2-1.4"
RANGE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH (WHICH MIGRATED EASTWARD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLIER TODAY) WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN A SSE WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING (IN THE WAKE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DISSIPATED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO
ACROSS NORTHWEST AL), A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 10-20
KNOTS WILL FOSTER REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OF RAIN
OR LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH/WEST,
WE WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 5-10% POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE M60S IN THE EAST (WHERE GRADUAL
WESTWARD ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED) TO THE
U60S-L70S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH PATCHY MIST/FOG MAY DEVELOP IN WIND-
SHELTERED LOCATIONS (PARTICULARLY THOSE WHICH EXPERIENCED WETTING
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY), LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD REDUCE BOTH
COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO
THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH EARLY MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESSIVELY LIFT/SCATTER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS, STRONGER
INSOLATION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE L-M 90S IN
THE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
(INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS) WILL WEAKEN AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A WEAKER TROUGH
MIGRATES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT (TO 10-20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. WELL TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT
AXIS (FROM EASTERN KS/OK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS). ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN (AND A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY
OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES), MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH LOWS IN THE M60S-L70S.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO
OUR NORTH WILL DECAY FROM W-TO-E DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE WILL FORCE THE WIND
SHIFT AXIS TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH IT LIKELY
TO EXTEND FROM EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TN/SOUTH
CENTRAL KY BY 0Z FRIDAY. ANY CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH/WEST, AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U 90S.
ALTHOUGH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY INDEED FORCE IT FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWFA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THE PRIMARY REASON FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SW
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN MS INTO MIDDLE TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE L-M 90S AND THE THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. THIS REGIME SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
WITH OUTFLOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR
WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS. DUE TO THIS (AND THE COMBINATION OF
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 2"), FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE WIND SHIFT AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND LOSE
DEFINITION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A
LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS OF OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS (FEATURING PWAT VALUES IN THE 2-2.2" RANGE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S-L70S, PERHAPS RISING INTO THE M70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY). ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT ANY POINT (DAY OR NIGHT), STORM COVERAGE DURING ANY
SINGLE SPECIFIC PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO INDICATIONS THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH TIME. WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
BE UNORGANIZED AND INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. REGARDLESS, SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
CAPE WILL EXIST FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HIGH PWAT VALUES/SLOW
CELL MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY PREDICTED TO BE IN THE L-M 90S (BUT
MAY BE LOWER ON DAYS WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION), WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S. HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN
IN THE MINOR-MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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