601
FXUS64 KHUN 091742
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50-60 MPH, A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, AND A LOW CHANCE
OF TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AL FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING COUNTIES FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY; HOWEVER, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
(20-30 MPH GUSTS) THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING.
THEN, OUR FOCUS IS ON ISAIAS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - IT'S GOING
TO BE A WINDY AND RAINY WEEKEND FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SO MAKE
SURE YOU'RE WEATHER AWARE AND PREPARED!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN FOR OUR AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WHAT IS LEFT OF ISAIAS MOVES OVER NW AL AND
INTO TN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE ONSET
OF INCREASING WINDS IS NOW ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE
FASTER TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM. WE RECENTLY UPGRADED OUR HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CULLMAN, MORGAN, MARSHALL,
MADISON, JACKSON, AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN AL WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR OUR REMAINING COUNTIES WEST OF THESE AREAS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
(WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS) IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA. THESE
PRODUCTS ALSO NOW BEGIN SOONER (1 AM SATURDAY) DUE TO THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS (SUCH AS HOLIDAY
DECORATIONS) AND TAKE CAUTION IF TRAVELING TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES)!
AS FOR RAINFALL, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MANY OF THE
HEAVIER BANDS AND CONVECTION FROM ISAIAS WILL SET UP TO OUR EAST
(OVER GEORGIA), WITH PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH RAINFALL FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING
WE WILL BE WATCHING, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS CONTINUOUSLY EVOLVING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, WE ARE MAINTAINING OUR FORECAST
AND URGE FOLKS TO BE PREPARED FOR 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-6
INCHES (OR MORE). THE FLOOD WATCH THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
1AM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD
TO THE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS,
AS WELL AS ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DOWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS!
OVERALL, WE URGE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING
INFORMATION! STAY SAFE!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK -- A
STARK CHANGE FROM WHAT WE'LL BE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
DRY CONDITIONS HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER,
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR
(PERHAPS INSTANCES OF IFR) AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS (AND POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STORMS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING). THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WHAT REMAINS OF ISAIAS TRAVERSES
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WINDS
AND LLWS. SUSTAINED EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LASTLY, LLWS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST BETWEEN 40-60 KNOTS IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 7Z TONIGHT FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 16Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ001>005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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