013
FXUS64 KHUN 150229
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL
4/4) HEAT IMPACTS FORECAST.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. REMNANT CIRRUS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND
THE END RESULT WILL BE A CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THIS, IT WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MUGGY, THANKS TO THIS MOIST, TROPICAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON,
WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE, AMPLE HEATING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NWS HEAT
RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) THREAT FOR HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
HEAT DOME UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE
COMMON BOTH DAYS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACH THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PEAKING BETWEEN 110-114 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, NWS HEAT RISK
HIGHLIGHTS A MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) THREAT TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4)
THREAT FOR HEAT IMPACTS BOTH DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE AN UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THANKS TO THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST, PLACING THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT, WE MAY BE MORE
UNDER THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY THAT RIDES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IN THE DAYS TO COME. OVERALL, HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP
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