786
FXUS64 KHUN 082350
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING BUT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE DOWNPOURS (3-5 IN/HR
RATES) RAPIDLY DEVELOPED BEFORE NOON, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL
CLUSTER IN THE SHOALS. THIS AREA IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS
OUTFLOW SPREADS INTO UNSTABLE AIR. OTHER TERRAIN BASED STORMS
WITH LESS COVERAGE HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WE MENTIONED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION IN WEST TN INTO
NORTHERN MS. THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN NORTHWEST AL MAY HELP TO TAME
THAT ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES NORTHWEST AL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVED IN THE ASOS/AWOS NETWORK HAS BEEN 30KT
AT K9A4 (COURTLAND). WE STILL BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS
IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
INTENSE DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT TIME LEADING TO BRIEF FLOODING
ISSUES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
IT'S A "RINSE AND REPEAT" FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER ON MONDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-70%) POP WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY,
THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS/EVENINGS. THE TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TOO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY LATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OVER 2") AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS, WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSE CONVECTION EACH DAY (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE) CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS,
IN ADDITION, HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 TO
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
EARLIER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
AREA, WITH REMNANT AREAS OF -RA AFFECTING VICINITIES OF KHSV AND
KMSL TERMINALS AT PRESENT. THIS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY ~01Z. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA MAY INSTIGATE SHRA OVERNIGHT, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE, REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS ANTICIPATED WITH HEATING
TOMORROW, WITH CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT KHSV/KMSL ARISING ~18-00Z,
ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT PRESENT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KDW
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