376
FXUS64 KHUN 240732
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 THROUGH 7 PM
FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT; WILL INCREASE TO
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOVES ITS WAY BACK NORTH. THIS STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY AND THE SOURCE OF A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL SERVE AS A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IS WHERE THE ACTUAL
FRONT SETS US. THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOOD
RISK WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MEANING
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS IN ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION IS SIGNIFICANT REGARDING WHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 00Z MODELS KEEP THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH, CONTAINING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST CWA BORDER, WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH AT ALL, THE CORRIDOR
OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD COULD QUICKLY MOVE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A PRIME ENVIRONMENT
TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT. PWATS LOOK TO SURGE
ABOVE 2", WITH SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH NEARING 2.5" BASED ON
00Z GUIDANCE. A BUILDING MID LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL ACT TO
SLOW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPSHEAR CORFIDI VECTORS BELOW 10 MPH.
THESE FACTORS SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTS AND
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING STORMS. ENSEMBLES KEEP HIGH END TOTALS
AROUND 3-4 INCHES, HOWEVER EVEN AREAS THAT RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL
MAY RUN INTO DRAINAGE PROBLEMS IF SMALLER AMOUNTS FALL IN
INCREDIBLY SHORT TIMEFRAMES. AS SUCH, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT IF THE
FRONT STALLS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES AND OVERALL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS TIME, DUE TO
THE HIGH END ENVIRONMENT, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BECOME LOWER FRI NIGHT, AS AN IMPULSE
PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRI
NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR SAT
WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BOUT OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. RAINFALL WITH THIS APPEARS COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. DEPENDING IF AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ON FRI,
EXCESSIVE RAIN ON SAT COULD ADD TO A FLOODING RISK. EXPECT ANOTHER
"COOL" LATE JULY DAY SAT, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HEAVIER AND/OR GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE COULD MAKE FOR AN EVEN
COOLER DAY; HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE FRONT
MEANDERS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN
THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE WEAKER. THUS A TAD WARMER AS THE HEAT
RETURNS, PUSHING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. COVERAGE OF THE HOTTEST VALUES
SHOULD BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A NW
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RISING TEMPERATURE TREND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES THIS WEEKEND AS HEAT
INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM HEAT IS ON THE TABLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT/DEPTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME, WHICH BRINGS LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF RAINFALL
BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK MOVING IN AFTER 12Z. THE MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO STICK
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SET UP SE OF THE
TERMINALS. INCLUDED VCTS IN HUNTSVILLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS MAKING IT THAT FAR NW TO THE ACTUAL TERMINAL. EVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY PRECIP AT MSL, THUS KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT.
COULD AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE IN THE EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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