200
FXUS64 KHUN 271627
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A LOW
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- A HEAT WAVE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH A
HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3 OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) FOR MOST AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 20-25KT WAS HELPING TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN MIDDLE TN
INTO NORTHWEST AL. THESE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE WILL BE MORE "RANDOM"
IN NATURE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
WITH WESTERLY 5H FLOW OF 25-35KT TODAY, ANOTHER MCV IN SOUTHERN
MO WILL BE TRANSPORTED EASTWARD INTO THE OH AND LOWER TN VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IGNITING CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO IN AND OH, AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOCATED OVER KY RESULTING FROM THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL VEER MORE TO A NORTHWEST-NORTH
DIRECTION TONIGHT WHICH WILL STEER THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST INTO
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN AND PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
FAR NORTHEAST AL LATE TONIGHT FEEDING OFF ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET OF
25-30KT. MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA, BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUT
OUR TN COUNTIES AND FAR NORTHEAST AL COUNTIES AT RISK FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING CONVECTION IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN TN COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT THE
TAIL END OF A LARGE MCS ADVANCING THROUGH EAST TN INTO FAR
NORTHERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY MIDDAY
LEAVING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL KY WHICH MAY
TRIGGER NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS
IT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IN MIDDLE LEVELS DEVELOPING AS A 5H HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR VALLEY
AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AT 95 IN THE SHOALS
METRO. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F AND WBGTS OF 85-88F ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH LOWER VALUES EAST OF I-65.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING FURTHER ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN VALLEY AREAS (UPPER 80S
TO ATOP THE HIGHER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). SIMILAR VALUES OF HEAT
INDEX (100-105F) AND WBGT (85-88F) ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE HEAT RISK
LEVEL WILL REACH LEVEL 3 OF 4 (MAJOR) FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE HEAT RISK
IN OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEB GRAPHICS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTENT 594DAM
HIGH ALOFT, LEADING TO THE FIRST REAL HEAT WAVE WE HAVE SEEN THIS
YEAR. THIS HIGH WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY DOWN THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
HEAT RELATED ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. THE HEAT
THREAT WILL COME FROM THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S (UPPER
90S SOME AFTERNOONS) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THAT WILL
BRING HEAT INDICES TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. IN ADDITION,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE VERY LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, KEEPING
US IN A MAJOR HEATRISK THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THE
FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, LOW (10-30%)
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES
MENTIONED ABOVE. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PRIORITIZE
HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING,
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C, USING SUNSCREEN, AND
NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS BEHIND IN VEHICLES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE KMSL AND KHSV AREAS.
THUS, HAVE LEFT TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF THIS CHANGES,
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY. LATER TONIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN, AND MAY
CLIP SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHEAST AL. +RA AND GUSTY WINDS
WOULD ACCOMPANY THESE TSRA. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT THESE OUT OF THE
KHSV TAF.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 4.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 5.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS
PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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