058
FXUS64 KHUN 250435
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. NEAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET HAVE
REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS NW OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE REMAINED STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE WITH MOST AREAS SEE WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.
LUCKILY, CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS HAS KEPT FOG FROM FORMING SO
FAR.
SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
WINDS (THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARER WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR)
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING VERY WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. HOWEVER,
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF THICKER FOG COULD OCCUR WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK FROM THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S (ESPECIALLY IN NE ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE)
AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FOG FORMATION SOME AS WELL. LOWER CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THIS COOLER/DRIER AIR.
MOST GUIDANCE DOES BREAK UP CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE
RANGE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WILL BE MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE A BREAK FROM THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
COUNTER THAT A BIT. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH CLEARER SKIES IN PLACE.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MORE INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER DURING THE DAY, DESPITE THE
COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE MARK IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MAYBE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUR COOLEST NIGHT MAY BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLY FOR LOWS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY.
A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST, ALLOWING A TROUGH AXIS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS TO BE A DRY TROUGH WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A 5H RIDGE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN BY THURSDAY. THUS, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THAT BEGIN THE WEEK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF A SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW EVOLUTION. EVEN SO, THE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM MAY BE DUE
MORE TO GENERALIZED MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE AND DELAYS THE SHIFT OF THIS TROUGH EAST, WHICH MAY EQUATE
TO A WARMER SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE KHSV TERMINAL
EASTWARD NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. FURTHER EAST, MAINLY CALM
WINDS ARE IN PLACE. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE VFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON A
KHSV THAN KMSL OVERNIGHT. THUS, LEFT PREDOMINATE MVFR VSBYS IN
PLACE AT THE KMSL TERMINAL AFTER 08Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FURTHER EAST AT KHSV, ONLY KEPT A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN PLACE FROM 08Z THROUGH 12Z. DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK SHOULD
ALSO HELP TO KEEP FOG MORE AT BAY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND OR
AFTER 13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN A BIT
SOONER AT KMSL AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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