243
FXUS64 KHUN 280537
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- A HEAT WAVE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH A
HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3 OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) FOR MOST AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
DESPITE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING, CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE NORTH AS THE LACK
OF A LIFTING MECHANISM HAS KEPT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE LOCALLY.
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AS SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN GETTING CLIPPED BY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT THIS REMAINS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL - FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL KICK OFF OUR DREADED HEAT WAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HEIGHT RISES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY TROPICAL ADVECTION BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE THE
100 DEGREE MARK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED A BIT
WARMER FOR SUNDAY, THUS A HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES OR ABOVE. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE HEAT WAVE WILL BE FUELED BY A PERSISTENT 594DAM HIGH ALOFT,
LEADING TO THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR.
THIS HIGH WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
RELATED ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. THE HEAT THREAT
WILL COME FROM THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S (UPPER 90S SOME
AFTERNOONS) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THAT WILL BRING
HEAT INDICES TO THE 100-109 DEGREE RANGE. UNFORTUNATELY RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PUT US CLOSER TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA, SO THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE
VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY, KEEPING US IN A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. WHILE THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD, THERE ARE LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR A POP UP THUNDERSTORM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PRIORITIZE
HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING,
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C, USING SUNSCREEN, AND
NEVER LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS BEHIND IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN SO, THIS FEATURE WILL
LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FLATTENING A BIT BY
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN INDICATES THAT
MOST AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH, BY LATE IN THE
WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE EAST AND FLATTENS, PERHAPS
THE RETURN FLOW WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
(20-30%) AND BRING A MORE SUMMERTIME, DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE REGION.
OVERALL, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS HEAT.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 90S, WITH SOME SPOTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL) EACH DAY.
HEAT INDICES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 102-110 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL. IN ADDITION, NWS HEATRISK IS SLATED TO BE MAJOR TO EXTREME
(LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4) WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE IN PART TO LOW TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH AT NIGHT, WITH
VALUES FORECAST TO MERELY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH NIGHT.
WBGTS ARE ALSO IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THEREFORE, NOT
MUCH RELIEF IS IN SIGHT, AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HEAT WAVE.
MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT! WEAR LIGHT-
COLORED LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING, STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK - NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON JULY 5.
THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH OR EXCEED 91-94 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24
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