241
FXUS64 KHUN 030911
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM (50-60%) FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER, A COUPLE CAMS
HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN NW AL THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE REMAINED OUT
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE 70S, WITH THE MID
70S BEING REACHED IN NW AL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A COLD SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS
PUSHED A WEDGE/BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST FOR THE
MOST PART KEEPS CHILLY AIR COMMON ON THE N-NE SIDE OF SUCH FRONTS
OUT OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A PRESENCE OF THAT
BOUNDARY AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HELPED TO BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING MORE TO THE
EAST, SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART HAS
ENDED.
ON A LARGER SCALE, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
LOWER-48. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, SHOULD HEAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
MID WEEK. EFFECTS FROM IT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM SPELL FOR THE START OF THE MONTH.
NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCES IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. MILD EARLY MARCH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST, AND SE-S WINDS OF
5-15 MPH. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED, A NICE WARMUP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE FROM AROUND 70 EAST
TO MID 70S WEST, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
WEEK, THANKS TO A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC BASIN. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 50 EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST, WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS. THE MID WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80, WITH LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE LOW/MID 50S EAST TO
AROUND 60 WEST. EVEN MILDER THURSDAY UNDER MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. STANDING RECORD WARM MINIMUMS AND
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THIS PERIOD.
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
WEDNESDAYTHURSDAY
HUNTSVILLE 61/1955 82/192364/1961 81/1910
MUSCLE SHOALS63/1955 83/202265/1961 86/1908
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WE WILL START OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED IN THE SW
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SFC WILL PULL IN WARM, TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND ~15+ DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO MEET OR BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO STAY
TUNED.
AS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPLY DIG
OUT WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN BREAK INTO A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, DAMPENING THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A LOW
CHANCE (15-20%) OF SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. AS A SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN ON IF IT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
(MEDIUM CHANCES 40-60%) AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
LOWERED CEILINGS ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV
AROUND 16Z. BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE BY
THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 10TH AND 11TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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