265
FXUS64 KHUN 150246
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE CHANCES SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY OVER THE WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED WEST INTO NORTHERN MS
THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE CONVERGENCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. A RENEWED CLUSTER HAS PRODUCED
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE SOUTHERN HUNTSVILLE METRO AREA BETWEEN
6:30-7:30 PM. ADDITIONAL STORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE ENTERED NORTHEAST
AL FROM GA. AFTER SUNSET, THESE SHOULD ALL DIMINISH GREATLY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO AR ON WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN, BUT CONTINUED CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER TN, NORTH AL
INTO GA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS,
BUT THE LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AT LEAST
LOW CHANCES OF THURSDAY AS WELL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY AS THE 8H AND 5H RIDGES BUILD A BIT MORE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO AR. POPS WILL INCREASE
TO MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO ACCELERATING NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 231 CORRIDOR UP TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
LOWS WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, INCREASING POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY. AS THIS HAPPENS, H85 UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO
THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AIR IS PUSHED
INTO THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO THE 99-105 DEGREE
RANGE, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SOME TIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
AND WITH THAT COMES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CURB A HIGHER HEAT RISK. AT THIS RANGE,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DRIER (CAPPED POPS AT 30%) AND WARMER
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY A
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OUT OF 4) HEATRISK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
BANDS OF -SHRA AND TSRA WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z), SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH TAFS UNTIL THAT
TIME. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 010AGL (IFR) BETWEEN 09-12Z. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT INTO THE 010-020AGL RANGE (MVFR) BY 15Z, IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BY 18Z. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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