373
FXUS64 KHUN 161704
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 858 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY WARMING THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S TO
105 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER
HIGHS OVER THE GULF AND APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL, EVEN WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS, WITHOUT ANY REAL SOURCE OF LIFT (UNLESS
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OCCURS), THINKING THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END TODAY. ALSO, WITH BULK
SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND DOWNBURST PARAMETERS NOT MET,
NOT FORECASTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL THEREFORE BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF (SLIGHTLY) LOWER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH VALUES FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR TONIGHT, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO MERELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT (WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE WEST GENERALLY OVER
THE ARKLAMISS AND DOWN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA LOOKS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP SOUTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE TO BE DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER
THE ARKLATEX, WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY, THIS PATTERN ALONG
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-80%) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOWER BULK SHEAR, BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WE'LL
BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL DUE TO
CONTINUED CALM WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW WILL IN PART INDUCE MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO START THE NEW WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUN. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE TO
THE EAST, WITH LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE WEST. WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS, SEASONABLY WARM OR HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST, AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE SE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO MON, ALONG
WITH MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL HELP RETURN MAINLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR MON-WED.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD
SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH SOME MID 90S ON TUE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 FOR THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HEAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ON TUE, WITH AN AREA AROUND
GREATER HUNTSVILLE RISING INTO THE 105-106 DEGREE. THIS PERIOD IS TOO
FAR OUT TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY THIS ISSUANCE, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND FOR NEXT WEEK. RATHER WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PERIOD, IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD
BRING LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO NORTH ALABAMA AT ISSUANCE. LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOWER VIS AND CIGS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
WITH NO RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, CALM WINDS, LITTLE CLOUD
COVER, AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THIS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS (TO MVFR) FOR NE AL AND INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL AL, INCLUDING THE HSV TERMINAL, AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ERODING. AS FOR WINDS, OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO BE LIGHT TO
CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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