476
FXUS64 KHUN 241829
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65 IN NORTHEAST AL.
- LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AN MCV HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER CONVERGENCE ZONE/HEAVY RAIN BAND HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST INTO TN, BUT THE NEXT BATCH TIED TO THE MCV CIRCULATION
WAS ENTERING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. A FFA WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN NORTHEAST AL THROUGH 23Z. WE EXPECT THIS
BAND TO EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST WHERE
SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND SBCAPE INTO THE 1200-1700 J/KG RANGE. LOSS OF HEATING MAY
DEPLETE THESE STORMS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AS SEEN IN RECENT HRRR RUNS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN A WEAK 5H LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND A BERMUDA HIGH. THE WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TO 20-25KT IN THE 8-5H LAYER WITH GENERAL CONFLUENT FLOW
PERSISTING IN A HIGH PW/THETA-E AIRMASS. THUS, A CONTINUED RISK
OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION
ROUNDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGION WELL INLAND. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE DIURNAL TREND AS WE
GO INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTH. DEPENDING UPON FAR SOUTH IT MOVES, RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
MAY INDEED BECOME LOWER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
BANDS OF +SHRA WITH EMBEDDED +TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF KHSV WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT KMSL OF
ADDITIONAL SHRA OR TSRA. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 030AGL
AT KHSV (MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR) THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT
KMSL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AND LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR. SHRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. BY 11Z, MOST AREAS WILL
HAVE CEILINGS BELOW 010AGL IFR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17
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