528
FXUS64 KHUN 251046
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
546 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION PAIRED WITH PESKY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG,
HOWEVER THE BULK OF IT IS SHOWN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LEAVES A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
CONDITIONS MAY BE IN OUR CWA. FOR THE MOMENT, WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DREARY AS SHOWER AND STORMS
LOOK TO PICK UP AROUND 10Z. HIRES MODELS SHOWER LIGHT SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO OUR NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND SLOWLY BUILDING
IN COVERAGE AS THEY DRIFT SE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
AREA WIDE TODAY DUE TO SUPPORT FROM A LIFTING WARM FRONT AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SHEAR LOOKS HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH
THE PASSING SHORT WAVE, INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF TEMPORAL OVERLAP OF THESE FEATURE WILL
MINIMIZE OUR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS INCREDIBLY MOIST
WITH HIGH PWATS, DEW POINTS, AND MID LEVEL RH, SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WON'T BE CONTINUOUS, THE FORCING FROM BOTH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) FOR ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROGRESS OF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR CWFA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL LIE, AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD BE
TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH/EAST. REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, STORM IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR, WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH NNW FLOW ALOFT OF
20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGER TO OUR WEST, THE SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL REDUCE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.6-1.8" AND THIS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF AN MCS (THAT WILL ORIGINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON), AS SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY SURVIVE A LONG SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND POTENTIALLY
REACH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
OUR REGION (FEATURING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND HIGHER CAPE) COULD
YIELD AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
IMPLICATION ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
BELIEVE THAT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN TURN, HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-109 DEGREE
RANGE. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ONE BEING ISSUED LANDING
ON TUESDAY. MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL AS IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COEXISTING SFC LOW DIGGING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK HAVE BEEN KEPT WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE- REMAINING LOW (20% OR LESS).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SCATTERED STORMS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A TEMPO GROUP INCLUDED AT EACH TERMINAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH CHANCES OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE BOTH TERMINALS. WITH STORMS NOT TIED
TO A SPECIFIC FEATURE, NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS
WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING TODAY. AT ANY POINT STORMS MOVING OVER
THE TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BEYOND WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE TAF. STORMS
WILL WANE AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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