427
FXUS64 KHUN 271043
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65 THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY.
- CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE EAST. A
A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MCS THAT MOVED IN AROUND 4Z HAS LARGELY DIED WITH LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN REMAINING. UNFORTUNATELY, REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANOTHER PASSING SHORT WAVE HAVE FIRED OFF ANOTHER
MASS OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TN. CAMS REMAIN AN ABSOLUTE
MESS, THUS THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY BASED OFF OF RADAR,
OBSERVATIONS SITE, AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS
SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE
BUT BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AND POSE LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 16Z.
BEYOND THAT, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY HEAT UP. WITH HIGH 70S TO
LOW 80S DEW POINTS IN PLACE IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 105 LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS FOR STORM CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, IT WILL AGAIN BE
CONTINGENT ON WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM. WITH CAMS VERIFYING HORRIBLY
TODAY, IT'S HARD TO PLACE ANY VALUE IN THEIR OUTPUT. RATHER, WE
WILL WATCH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
ASSESS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE THREATS TO OUR
AREA. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED
MCSS TO SPIN UP QUITE QUICKLY, WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN INTENSIFYING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO
TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A
SURFACE LOW RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS NY/PA, WITH A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
LOW EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY NIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
CAMS INDICATES THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KY/TN, AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AS IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BYPASS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
OUR CWFA BY MID/LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS) AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS BEGINS TO
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGHER TO OUR NORTH/EAST (WHERE DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH), IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHERN AL. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES (M-U 90S)
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS (U70S-L80S) WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT
AXIS, WARRANTING ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY AND YIELDING HIGH CAPE OF
3000-3500 J/KG. THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT TO 20-30 KNOTS, SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE TN RIVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESPOND BY DROPPING TO
MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS (M-U 60S), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE U80S-L90S. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS IF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW (AT LEAST
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS) AND SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY YIELD
AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR A
FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE AT HSV. AROUND 14Z RAIN LOOKS TO DISSIPATE
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY MID DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RAD
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