062
FXUS64 KHUN 061045
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY (AND MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST). HOWEVER, A LOW-MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THURSDAY-WEDNESDAY. THESE
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LOCALIZED, DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL (SPECIFICALLY, AROUND
CULLMAN, MUSCLE SHOALS, AND SCOTTSBORO SO FAR). HOWEVER, IT HAS
BEEN INTERMITTENT. THIS HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED CONSISTENTLY NOR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE FULLY DISSIPATED SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO URGE COMMUTERS TO USE CAUTION BY
SLOWING DOWN AND INCREASING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES WHILE USING
LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. AS
FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO, THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW-MEDIUM
(20-50%), WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES REMAINING IN FAR NE AL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN LOW THREATS OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR AND WINDS
ARE SLACKING WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS ALREADY.
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR YOUR MORNING SCHOOL COMMUTE TOMORROW, WATCH OUT FOR ANY
LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG, AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. ON
THURSDAY, A SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND A BROAD CANADIAN CENTERED TROUGH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD. WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OUT OF HERE, THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH FOCUS FOR STORMS TOMORROW. BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND DIURNAL HEATING, EXPECTING A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. STORMS CAN
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WILL NOTE THAT
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK ONCE AGAIN, SO STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ARE TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE FROM
NE/OK/MO INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
(20-50%) BUT HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL BE FOUND IN NE AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. WILL BE MONITORING WHAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
OUR NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEE IF ANY OF THAT IS ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE TN VALLEY. IF SO, POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, PRECIP WILL START IN THE MORNING MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (30-70%). DESPITE THIS, HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE IT IS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES OUTSIDE. MOST OF US WILL ALSO BE IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) BOTH DAYS AS WELL. IT'S NOT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER PLEASE BE SAFE OUT IN THE HEAT!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM RIDGING WILL SET UP BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WSW FLOW AND KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. UNDER BROAD RIDGING, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 90S PAIRED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT CONCERN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON, YET CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW 105 CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD AN
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY AS THE NEW WORK WEEK DRAWS CLOSER.
PAIRED WITH HEAT CONCERNS, EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING, AFTERNOON STORMS WILL POSE LITTLE TO NO STRONG TO
SEVERE RISK. RATHER, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN WEAKLY FORCED REGIMES LIKE THIS, THINGS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LINGERING FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IMPACTING KMSL THROUGH 14Z,
WHICH HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. AT
KHSV THIS AFTERNOON, A PROB30 HAS BEEN KEPT FOR LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO DECREASED VISIBILITIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...HC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page