130
FXUS64 KHUN 250310
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS (MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NW ALABAMA), CREATING THE NEED FOR EXTRA CAUTION
REGARDING OUTDOOR BURNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH CALM WINDS SEEN IN
OBSERVATIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SW ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS HAS LIKELY
HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND TOWARDS
CULLMAN COUNTY, WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY 0 TO 4
DEGREES.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN GUIDANCE AROUND 1000 MB PICKS UP
AFTER 1 AM. THIS SHOULD PUSH DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA,
DISSIPATING MOST OF THE FOG AND KEEP IT FROM BECOMING DENSE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA, NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
925 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 14 AND 16 DEGREES IN
MOST GUIDANCE. THINKING THAT SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS PRETTY STEADY STATE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY THEREFORE LOOK TO CLIMB TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE
PRIMARILY (WITH MAYBE A FEW UPPER 60S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN DON'T LOOK
MUCH HIGHER, DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT. THUS, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY, A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW CONSHORT, BUT AFTERNOON MIXING DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND IS CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. AFTERNOON MIXING MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENT
BY THEN, BUT TOO FAR OUT TO LOWER THAT MUCH YET IN THE GRIDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORAILY FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRY FRONT
RIPPLES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AND SOME LIMITED HEATING WILL STILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. NO AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT (SAVE FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR). IN FACT, A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WINDS VEER TO THE SE/SSE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A BOUNDARY OVER NW GA IS FORECAST BY MESOSCALE MODELS TO PUSH
WEST AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE LIGHT OR CALM WINDS, THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...KTW
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