026
FXUS64 KHUN 021825
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 110-114F. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TODAY THROUGH 7 PM ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY (MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING). THESE WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, UP TO ONE INCH HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.
- THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN MIDDLE TN, AND ALSO IN CENTRAL
MS. A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AL. EXPECT MORE AND MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER NORTH AL DUE TO THE PRE-
EXISTING COOL POOL FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS. THIS IS NOTED IN THE
SURFACE THETA-E ANALYSIS, WITH A GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TN INTO
NORTHEAST AL. EXPECTING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOON FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. DANGEROUS HEAT IS UNDERWAY AS WELL, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110-116 IN NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN, WITH 95-105F FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
GUIDANCE SEEM TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY ORIENTING ITSELF OVER THE AREA
IN A WNW TO ENE FASHION ON FRIDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 28 DEGREES IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ON FRIDAY
(BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM). HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS SEEMS TO MODIFY IN
THE LOW LEVELS A BIT BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK LIKE SOME MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD OCCUR, BUT THAT MAY BE BRIEF. DO EXPECT SOME
LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE (PUSHING UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY)
COULD OCCUR, BUT DON'T THINK IT WILL BE AS HUMID AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 103 AND 109
DEGREES. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY SOMEWHAT LOWER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES
LOOK MUCH LESS ROBUST ALONG WITH SBCAPE. THOUGH STILL EXPECTING
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. OVERALL,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LESSENS AND SHIFTS MORE INTO
TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY. OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND
TOWARDS JACKSON COUNTY (AL) COULD SEE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LINGER THOUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST, BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS ATTAINABLE. DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEMS TO LESSEN
AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO BETWEEN 24 AND 26 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP HIGHS MORE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
SHOWN IN GUIDANCE AND WITHOUT A MORE SOLID CONVERGENCE AREA TO
FOCUS HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY VALUES SHOULD BE
LOWER. THAT BEING SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH NO
SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY/LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGHS SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST AND A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SHOULD BE MORE OF A
RULE WITH CONTINUED LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WELL
(40-60%).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
NOW, INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA ACTIVITY BETWEEN 02/21Z AND
03/01Z. DURING THIS PERIOD AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAYBE LOWER. THIS MAY NEED TO BE MADE MORE PREDOMINANT
IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 01Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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