597
FXUS64 KHUN 221132
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CULLMAN
AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE, CALM WINDS ARE IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
A LARGER AREA OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 5000 AND 9000 FEET STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM. HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NNE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG AT BAY OR
VERY ISOLATED.
DURING THE DAY TODAY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATE FROM THIS LOW WILL SWING
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. EXPECT THIS TO PULL SOME OF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ESE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DISSIPATES THIS CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS A TAD
BELOW GUIDANCE, BUT NOT MUCH. HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND THE UPPER 40S FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION, VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR, BUT FOR NOW LEFT THAT
OUT OF THE FORECAST.
MOST MODELS DO MOVE THIS SURFACE LOW TO THE ENE INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE GULF BEFORE MOVING IT MORE TO THE SE. ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL OVERALL. THIS SHOULD KEEP
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF CULLMAN COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM TO
AFFECT NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUNSHINE IN
THE MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY FORCE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN
THE EVENING AND A MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG THOUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
WELL TO OUR NORTH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW INTO WESTERN
TEXAS IMPACTS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THIS FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUE AS A RESULT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND DURING THAT PERIOD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE INCOMING
SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK UNTIL A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES SWEEPS THROUGH OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FOR LATE WEEK.
THE ABOVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, WHEN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS RETURNS
TO THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LAST NIGHT, DROPPING TO BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH TO
FIVE HUNDREDTHS FOR OUR AREA. THEREFORE, FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A CONCERN WITH THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
ABUNDANT BULK SHEAR, BUT NONEXISTENT SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE IT REALLY
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COLD
SEASON, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. AS WE GET CLOSER, PERHAPS CHANCES OF A COUPLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME PLAUSIBLE. REGARDLESS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES!
HOWEVER, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FROPA, TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
COOL BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND,
WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER LOWS, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
BETWEEN 5000 AND 8000 FEET WILL PUSH INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS
MORNING (KMSL ~ 12Z AND KHSV ~ 13Z). THESE CIGS WILL DISPERSE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM AT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING PRODUCING MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS, BUT THAT IS OUTSIDE
OF THE CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW
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