345
FXUS64 KHUN 281556
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL TEND TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
AFTERWARD, AND ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
BENEATH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ~8-9 KFT. FURTHER LOW-LVL CU
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AS HEATING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY IN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TODAY. A FEW OF THESE MAY
FURTHER DEVELOP INTO SMALL SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
(<20%), MAINLY IN THE PLATEAU AREAS. A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA, AND WITH FURTHER MIXING, DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPR 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
AGAIN, WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR MAINLY IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE PAINT ROCK VALLEY AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JACKSON COUNTY VALLEY
ALONG THE HWY 72 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SATURDAY WILL FEEL LIKE A NEAR CARBON-COPY OF TODAY, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%) MAINLY
ATOP THE PLATEAU AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL START AN UPWARD TREND
FROM TODAY HOWEVER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
90S, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL TEND TO REMAIN LOWER IN THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
RELEGATED MAINLY TO AREAS OF THE SW CONUS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HEAT/HUMIDITY AS LOW-LVL FLOW ALSO ADVECTS A RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH NEAR 100
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A
BUT FURTHER INTO THE 100-105 RANGE ON MONDAY. HEAT RISK AND WBGT
LEVELS WILL LIKEWISE CLIMB ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT CERTAIN THAT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED DURING THIS PERIOD (BUT WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY). OTHERWISE, THE ONLY CAVEAT TO
THE FORECAST WILL BE A WESTWARD TRACKING CUT-OFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE BASE OF THE EVOLVING RIDGE. WHILE THE CORE OF THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOST IMPACTS
ALONG WITH IT, WE WILL BE ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DUE TO THIS
AND FOR ENHANCED HEAT AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE, POPS ARE A LITTLE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
MAINLY RELEGATED TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD TEND TO BE SMALL AND RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (LESS THAN 20KTS
THROUGH THE WHOLE COLUMN), BUT COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT A STRONG
WIND GUST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., BRINGING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENT DRY/WARM CONDITIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING
COMFORTABLY INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
BY MID NEXT WEEK FOR HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, POPS REMAIN VERY LOW EACH DAY AS MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY NEXT WEEK SUCH AS SEEKING SHADE
WHEN OUTDOORS AND REMAINING HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
PATCHY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE DENSE
IN A FEW AREA RIVER VALLEYS. THEN, VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH THROUGH 6TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17
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