314
FXUS64 KHUN 220215
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
815 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY THIS SAT EVENING.
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO PREDOM THE LOWER 30S/NEAR 30F FOR
MOST SPOTS, AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST STATES. WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF COOLER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER/MID
20S, LOWS INTO EARLY SUN LOOK TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S/NEAR 20F,
UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND SHIFT
NE WITH TIME, WINDS SHOULD RELAX AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD
HELP TO BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE THE SURFACE HIGHS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM THOUGH WITH GRADIENT
WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. LOWS SHOULD CLIMB FROM THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A STRONG SHORTWAVE
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR FORCING TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND PULLS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD DROP RAIN
CHANCES STEADILY TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT OR LOWER. LOWS WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WARM/MOISTURE AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY, BUT GFS20 MOVES IT TO
NEAR MAINE. FOR NOW, KEPT WITH NBM 15 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES,
BUT THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS RIGHT.
BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.
ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH THERE IS A BIG SPREAD ON THIS TIMING IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY, NATIONAL GUIDANCE IS RAMPING UP
CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET WARMER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 60S BY SATURDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE
MUCH WARMER ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL HAVE
FINALLY DIMINISHED LEAVING CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDS IN PLACE. NNE
WINDS NEAR 7-9KT WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT/VAR LATE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...09
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