216
FXUS64 KHUN 041749
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE EXITING THIS
EVENING. A MINOR INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS TAKEN PLACE
AS WSW FLOW ALOFT HAS INCREASED INTO THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE, AND
THIS HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWFA, WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EXISTS (DUE TO
THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS), AND THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
YIELDED A MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
WE EXPECT THIS REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NNW AND
SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. WITH RICH, TROPICAL
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION (FEATURING PWAT VALUES
OF 1.9-2.1") WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH OR
AREAL FLOODING. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY LOW MLCAPE (UP TO 500 J/KG)
SUGGEST THAT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING) WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPACT. DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF MORNING PRECIPITATION AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY), WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 70S.
POCKETS OF RAIN AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH A LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS OCCURS, N-NE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING RAPIDLY AND
SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NW-TO-SE BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE M-U 50S/NW TO L-M 60S/SE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH A CONTRACTED LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING
ELEVATED N-NE WINDS (SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH)
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS, AS STRONG MIXING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VALUES IN THE U40S-L50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
A LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME IN THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSET OF EASTERLY FLOW (RELATED TO
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS WESTERN VA/NC/SC) INTERCEPTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY BE
DISPLACED TO THE E/SE OF OUR CWFA AND WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS (WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE) WILL RETURN TO
THE L-M 80S ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U40S-M50S
MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 10-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A SURFACE HIGH OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THOSE FROM MONDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A MINOR INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION. AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING A SE FLOW ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH, AND HELP CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. DESPITE THE
DAYS GETTING SHORTER PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AUTUMN, ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NEW
WEEK. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP UP A TAD BOTH THU
AND FRI, WITH HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS WED AND THU
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THOSE NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS, TO THE MID 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRI, OCT 9TH ARE AROUND 79/55.
THE SE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE GULF REGION WAS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH OF THIS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BRING LOWER END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY - RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S, AND HIGHS ON SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
LOW/MID 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
BROKEN LAYERS OF MVFR-LEVEL STRATUS (WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT)
WILL PERSIST AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BENEATH
AN OVERCAST CANOPY OF CS. HOWEVER, CLOUD BASES WILL PROGRESSIVELY
RISE, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 22Z. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN OR LGT SHRA,
CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. FURTHER
LIFTING/SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING,
AS STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. SKC CONDS WILL RETURN BY 12Z, WITH N-NE WINDS OF 12G20 KTS
ANTICIPATED BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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