435
FXUS64 KHUN 192028
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A MARGINAL (LOW) RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. SHOWERS THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY TRAILING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA HAVE SINCE CLEARED
AND THE SUN HAS BEGUN TO SHINE IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. MUSCLE
SHOALS HAS TENTATIVELY BROKEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD THIS
PAST HOUR AS THE SITE WARMED TO OVER 76 DEGREES (THE PREVIOUS
RECORD SET IN 1917, 1986, AND 2018). ADDITIONALLY, GUSTS HAVE
OVER PERFORMED - REACHING UP TO 25-30 MPH IN SOME AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A LINE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO REACH NW
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXITING THE AREA BY 6-7 AM. A LOW CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONGER STORMS EXISTS, HOWEVER, WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF A STRONGER
STORM WERE TO OCCUR, WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY, WITH A CUTOFF LOW TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING. WITH
LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY THEM OFF AND ON DURING THIS TIME.
WITH CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS LATER TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
THE MAIN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY (60-80%, MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES) IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TONIGHT, CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT,
WHEN A RELATIVELY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY, AS BULK
SHEAR SHOWN BY HI-RES GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 50-60 KNOTS WITH A
LLJ AROUND 40 KNOTS. ONE QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY, SINCE
GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH ANY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOSTLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE IF A CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS IS OVERCOME. ULTIMATELY, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
VERY LOW. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS
LOW AS WELL. IF ANY STORMS DO OCCUR, EMBEDDED, ELEVATED,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE MOVES
THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL. THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS SLATED TO SAG INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS DISCUSSED ABOVE IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
FURTHER RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AT
LEAST UNTIL THE EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MID TO LATE EVENING, MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND OVERSPREADING NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING IS
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME, AS
SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (LOW) RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RISK IS HAIL, WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. WHILE MODEL SHEAR VALUES ARE
STRONG, INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE HAIL FORMATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE INSTABILITY
SHOWN BY GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE AND MAKE
SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION
FRIDAY NIGHT!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A VERY SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST BUT IT
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE
THEREFORE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN UPPER LOW COMPLEX NOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, AS
WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE AMPLIFYING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEING UNDER A NW FLOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST, MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, A
SURFACE LOW THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE SHOULD
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING A NOR-
EASTER TYPE SYSTEM.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE ONES SATURDAY NIGHT MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING, COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOWS AS THEY
HEAD FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY CHANGEOVER SHOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE IT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AFTER FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY, HIGHS LATER THAT DAY WILL ONLY RISE MID TO
UPPER 40S. A NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER MOST PLACES DESPITE THE SUN RETURNING.
A DRY AND CHILLY PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK IS
EXPECTED, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARCTIC REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA
AND NW CANADA FILTERS SOUTHWARD. THUS CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 20S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO
AROUND 50. A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WE GO INTO THE
MID WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS BREAK UP AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES (40-70%) WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING LOWER CIGS AND VIS BRIEFLY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ANOTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
BE LLWS (OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS) DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR BETWEEN 1-8Z AT
BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 18-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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