597
FXUS64 KHUN 111820
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH LOOKS AS IT IT WILL COLLIDE WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER BROKEN
LINE AND/OR CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES AROUND 19Z AND PUSHING ESE/SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (2-10 PM)
WINDOW.
A GLANCE AT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SHOWS THAT WE ARE
PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG, AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 TO 9 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT AN INVERTED V PROFILE (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25
DEGREES) AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
WINDS/DOWNBURSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS).
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH STORMS ORGANIZE, BUT
REGARDLESS A VERY PRONOUNCED DOWNBURST THREAT REMAINS AND SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THIS
REASON. SHOULD CONVECTION TO NORTHWEST MOVE IN A LITTLE LATER
(22-01Z), THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND 300 DEGREES 10 KTS, MEANING
SOME BACKBUILDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR (ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION
THAT ANCHORS ITSELF TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY). THUS, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS DEEPER CONVECTION
MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. FOR THIS REASON, WPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER 03-06Z, WITH ONLY A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOULD ANY
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCUR, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION MAY ARISE FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE/MCV FEATURE NOTED ON
SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO RISE TO THE FOREFRONT, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS TODAY AND WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS
TRACK/BACKBUILD. A PRETTY SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY AN EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOWER
INSTABILITY MAY HINDER THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT, BUT HYDRO
CONCERNS WILL STILL EXIST DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND WET SOILS. POPS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%). THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC MODELS MEANDER THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE
INSTABILITY IS LOST. RAIN CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WSW INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE CLOUD COVER (AFTER MIDNIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED) WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO MISSOURI IN
MOST GUIDANCE. IT PULLS A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH IT AT THE
SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS
SE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA TO AN LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE
WEAK WARM FRONT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI). SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK,
BUT GOOD AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY MODELS. SOME
STRONGER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP US FROM GETTING REALLY HOT AGAIN. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID. THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
(MAINLY 96 TO 104 DEGREES) THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A OVER A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
HANDLE THIS THROUGH 22-23Z WHERE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND
HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30 THROUGH 04-05Z. AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS BROAD TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER,
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP
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