825
FXUS64 KHUN 031743
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE EAST.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH COVERAGE REMAINING HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM 20-60% TUESDAY TO 20-80% ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- AFTER SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
30-60% SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY-
MONDAY).
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS GA THROUGHOUT
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD (WHICH WILL SUSTAIN NNE FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS
ALOFT). AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BETWEEN
A HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK CYCLONE THAT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. WITHIN THIS
REGIME, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS
TODAY. FURTHERMORE, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINES IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF MIDDLE/EAST TN
COMBINED WITH MINOR STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
POCKETS OF LOW-TOPPED, LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAPE MAY INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG IN THIS
REGION (SUPPORTING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES), THE GENERAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AS
THE PREVAILING WEATHER TYPE. EVEN WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AND EVEN A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN POSSIBLE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON), HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM YESTERDAY (U70S-L80S).
DUE TO THE PARTIAL DIURNAL FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION TODAY, WE
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY
BETWEEN 1-3Z THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES, SURFACE WINDS ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL VEER TO NNE, AND AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE
THIS EVENING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL RETURN PRIOR TO SUNRISE. PATCHY, LIGHT MIST AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS TEMPS DESCEND INTO THE M-U 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS BETWEEN A DECAYING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES (BEFORE
ALSO DECAYING ACROSS SOUTHERN MS). PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD OFF THE LOW WILL SHIFT
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, FOCUSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS (WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL). A MINOR INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
(BACK INTO THE L-M 70S) WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS,
CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CAPE AND A GREATER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY). HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO
RAISE CONCERN FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS, LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
GREATEST CONCERN, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO
OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FORCING STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE.
AS A BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINS TO DEVELOP
WESTWARD, LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS OUR
CWFA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THURSDAY THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE
BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MAKES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SENDS A DISTURBANCE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS,
REMAINING UP IN THE OH VALLEY. NOT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT THE HEAT INDEX WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE IT IS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER WITH MOST OF US RETURNING BACK TO SCHOOL THIS
WEEK, HEAT SAFETY NEEDS TO REMAIN A PRIORITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BASE OF A BKN-OVC
STRATUS LAYER (ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY) HAS LIFTED TO
~4KFT, AND WE WILL INDICATE PREVAILING VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS LGT-MOD SHRA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE (PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF HSV) BEFORE INITIALLY
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL WARMING
BTWN 22-0Z. HOWEVER, WITH PROSPECTS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS TO THE S/E OF HSV, WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS EVENING, STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN
PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY, BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-VFR.
SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 340-020, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARND 5
KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
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