845
FXUS64 KHUN 221358
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
858 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 858 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BELOW 25%
EXPECTED TODAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE BELOW 700 MB IN 7 AM SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED
OVER TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO NW ALABAMA.
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING SLOWLY EAST, HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT ABOVE NBM(BASED
ON THE TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS). THUS, RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 76 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE IN NW ALABAMA. FURTHER
EAST, HIGHS IN THE MID TO MID/UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
7 AM SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN PLACE BETWEEN 700 MB
AND 850 MB. THERE ALSO IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WE WILL LIKELY TAP INTO WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES. THE STRONGEST MIXING IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN THE MUCH DRIER LAYER BETWEEN
850 MB AND 700 MB IS MIXED UP TO. THIS WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS, HOWEVER, WINDS MAY STAY AROUND 5 OR 6 MPH IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS (925 MB WINDS PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS). THIS SHOULD SETUP A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER ELEVATION DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING MUCH DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DUE TO MIXING IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW, KEEPING WITH CONSHORT GUIDANCE (SLIGHTLY
BELOW NBM FOR DEWPOINTS). HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER IN FUTURE UPDATES. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO SW ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY IN NW AL). HIGHS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AT LEAST IN NW AL.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SSE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME NEWER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE
VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
AMERICA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXPECT NBM AND MODELS ARE NOT REALLY PICKING UP ON HOW WARM IT
WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FORECAST
WINDS DO INDICATE THAT A DRY WEDGE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY COUNTER THE UPPER RIDGE CONCERNING HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MAY
STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE, BUT SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON MIXING STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND OH VALLEY. THE
SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT PRESSURES WILL BE
FALLING AS IT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGING RIDGE WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING, WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY IN DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-7 KTS. A TEMPO GROUP CONTINUES THROUGH 14Z FOR
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES WITH PATCHY
FOG FORMATION AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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