815
FXUS64 KHUN 171545
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
TODAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE FIRST LOCAL IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR CAN BE SEEN IN
THE SKIES THIS MORNING AS A SHALLOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA. TODAY WILL ACT AS A
TRANSITION DAY AS WE MOVE INTO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL
CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD MIGRATION TODAY, THE AFORMENTIONED
TROPICAL LOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE WE WE NOT SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THESE FEATURES UNTIL TOMORROW, THEIR
APPROACH WILL INFLUENCE LOCAL WEATHER TODAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES, WE WILL REMAIN IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL WORK TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL INTO THE
TN VALLEY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMING MAKING IT INTO THE
HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S, HIGHEST IN NW AL. THANKFULLY,
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, WE WILL HAVE ELEVATED
GRADIENT WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TODAY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER. CURRENTLY, THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
WITH RAIN CHANCES PICKING UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL ADDRESS THE EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LOOKS TO MOVE ON SHORE NEAR LOUISIANA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSH ENE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE ACTUAL LOW WELL
SOUTH OF US, WITH THE BULK OF IT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL. AS
SUCH, OUR IMPACTS FROM THIS TROPICAL LOW WILL BE MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL, CONTINGENT ON IF WE GET ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT LIFT NORTH. THIS MAKES THE FLOODING AND SEVERE
FORECAST RATHER CHALLENGING.
IF HEAVIER BANDS DO NOT LIFT NORTH, WE MAY NOT GET MUCH RAIN AT
ALL, CERTAINLY NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR FLOODING THREAT. THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PARAGRAPH WILL COVER IF HEAVIER BANDS DO LIFT
NORTH. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT SUPER SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES, BUT
WITH VERY LOW LCLS AND POTENTIAL CELL INTERACTION, A WEAK TROPICAL
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN WILL HOWEVER BE THE
OVERALL BIGGEST CONCERN. MODELS INDICATE PWATS MAY CLIMB A DECENT
BIT ABOVE 2" PUTTING US WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS
PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH OHX AND BMX. WITH HIGH MID
AND LOW LEVEL RH, ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH, YET INCONSISTENTLY SHOW ISOLATED BULLSEYES OF 3+ INCHES.
SEEING THIS MUCH RAIN WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON IF HEAVIER TROPICAL
BANDS MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
WHAT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR IS TIMING FOR BOTH THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MORNING MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING RAIN LIFTING
NORTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE
WORK DAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN AND NOW LOOKS TO
MOVE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENTLY WE ARE MAINTAINING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AT
50-60% FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW TO
MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS, FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR FLOODING RISKS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
(5-15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN PLACE, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH TO GET ANY POSTPONED YARD
WORK DONE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DRIER FORECAST WON'T LAST LONG. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START BACK UP ON FATHER'S DAY/SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES SLIDING
THROUGH AND A SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH
VALLEY. LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS DISPERSE.
S TO SW WINDS WILL GUST TO THE 15-20KT RANGE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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