082
FXUS64 KHUN 120730
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
230 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NE ALABAMA
COUNTIES AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES UNTIL 10
AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BEFORE FALL WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOG HAS
BEEN SLOWLY TO DEVELOP, YET LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY GIVE WAY
TO AREA WIDE DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPANSIONS TO THE
ADVISORY WILL BE DONE AS NECESSARY.
FOG MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CALM
CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THROUGH THE DAY HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO OUR
SSW. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR AFTER THE FOG
LIFTS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO
HEAT UP A DECENT BIT WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASON NORMS
IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S. DRY AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SOME MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON LOWERING AFTERNOON RH INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. WE WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD THEY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS THROUGH THE DAY,
DENSER FOG FORMATION IS NOT AS CERTAIN. SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH
A LOWER THREAT OF DENSER FOG IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS/LOCATIONS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOWS SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO AN
INVERSION POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MIXING SHOULD START MUCH EARLIER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MAY MIX UP TO DEWPOINTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO. THIS SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS MORE MARKEDLY. AGAIN, KEPT
WITH CONSHORT, BUT IT MAY END UP LOWER THAN THAT. HIGHS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TOO CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80 IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN A BIT COOLER IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS SHOULD DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO AT LEAST
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MAYBE A MORE INTENSE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN LOW TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER AIR LINGERING IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND SW FLOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM INDIANA SSW INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. LOWS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OR SO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD CLIMB A BIT HIGHER INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. NOT SURE MIXING WILL BE QUITE AS DOMINANT IN
THE AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, SOME AFTERNOON MIXING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AND DROP RH VALUES TO AROUND 40 PERCENT IN MANY
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
DRY CONDITION AND PLEASANTLY WARM MID OCTOBER WARMTH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE STARTING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SE CONUS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH. AFTER A WARM WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, LOWS
WED NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO AROUND 60S SHELTERED VALLEYS TO MID 60S NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER. A LAST PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THU, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NW ALABAMA.
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, A SYSTEM IMPACTING PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (INFUSED WITH MOISTURE FROM EX TROPICAL SYSTEM
RACHEL) SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE WED-THU. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE ENE, AND REFORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRI. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THU INTO FRI. GIVEN THAT MOST
OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE USUAL AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. SO EXCEPT FOR WINDS
BECOMING NW ON FRI, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE MOMENT APPEARS WILL
BE A DRY ONE. THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL
CAMPS WITH THE FRONT. THE 18Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST, BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
DID NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY FRI.
REGARDLESS, ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL CHILL NOTABLY,
JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER LOWS THU NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S, HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOW/MID
80S, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC AND CANADA BUILDS TO THE
SE. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE FELT FRI NIGHT, AS LOWS
TUMBLE INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20
MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT CHILLY FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COOLER TREND CONTINUES SAT, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 60S. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SAT ARE AROUND 75/50.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS BY SUN MORNING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S (PLACES NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER
THAT ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM). THE LOWER END OF THIS COULD BRING A
FROSTING RISK FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS, SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR. COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT SUN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FOG EXISTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GET, THUS AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE MADE
AS NECESSARY. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ006-
008>010.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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