339
FXUS64 KHUN 230200
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING 500-MB RIDGE
(EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES) AND A DEVELOPING POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN QC, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO INDUCE NNE WINDS (UP TO 5 KNOTS) FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED LAST NIGHT (L-M 40S, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER). PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS (IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
TEMPORARILY RELAX).
AFTER SUNRISE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. ALTHOUGH A NARROW TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WIND SHIFT AXIS, THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MINRH VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRE INITIATION, AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE M-U 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A BELT OF 20-30 KNOT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT (ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST) FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER, GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT, PROFILES WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY, WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND 0.5" AND NO RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, FLOW WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE SE
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPANDS. DUE TO MINOR COOL
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST, AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAY FALL
A COUPLE OF DEGREES (INTO THE L-M 70S), WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING COOL AND IN THE L-M 40S (BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LARGE
WATER SOURCES).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CATEGORIZED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, KEEPING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIKE RECENT DAYS, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN CASE RHS DROP TO A LEVEL THAT WOULD BE MORE
CRITICAL FOR FIRE CONDITIONS, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE LARGER
FIRE CONCERNS. THE MID TO LAKE WEEK PERIOD GETS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE TO
OUR NORTH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, PUSHING COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THESE SYSTEMS WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO DIG THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE DURATION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD,
WITH NNE FLOW (UP TO 5 KTS) OVERNIGHT PREDICTED TO VEER TO THE E
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT (COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS), WE WILL USE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS (IN LGT BR/FG) AT THE HSV
TERMINAL BTWN 8-12Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD
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