434
FXUS64 KHUN 151033
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH MORE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS MAY BE OBSERVED
THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. THE CURRENT NBM HIGH
TEMP FORECAST WOULD AGAIN BE RECORDING BREAKING OR TYING AT BOTH
HSV AND MSL WITH TODAYS HIGH TEMP RECORDS BEING 88 AND 91
RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE OVER PREFORMED IN THIS PATTERN
THE LAST TWO DAYS, PERSISTENCE FORECAST GIVES US A HIGH CHANCE OF
MEETING THESE RECORDS AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT,
MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY FOR AT LEAST ONCE MORE
HOT FALL DAY BEFORE RELIEF MAKES ITS WAY IN TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS REMAIN DRY, CAMS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN WAS
ADDED WITH THIS PACKAGE UPDATE FOR PORTIONS OF N AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT, A 50 KT LLJ WILL MIX DOWN
AND ALLOW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BE SURE TO SECURE ANY LOOSE, OUTDOOR
ITEMS (INCLUDING HOLIDAY DECORATIONS) BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY (AS
MENTIONED) BUT MUCH COOLER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
60S, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN
EVEN COLDER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR US SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY-
READ MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BY SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD ANTICYCLONE BRINGING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. NIGHT TIME LOWS BY SUN MORNING SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES TO
THE LOW/MID 40S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING MAINLY 38 DEGREES OVER LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES FALLING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO, WHICH WOULD BRING A FROST RISK. THIS
IS SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR.
THE START OF A NEW WEEK SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE SAT, RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME E-SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS MON SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS MON NIGHT MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS ON TUE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S, AND INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WED. LOWS TUE
NIGHT AGAIN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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