904
FXUS64 KHUN 251810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
110 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WITH DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS TAKEN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES OF
A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NW AL AS A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH LACK OF MOISTURE IN
MOST OF THE AREA, SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY- WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
TUESDAY MORNING, CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LOW CHANCE (15-25%)
OF SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF NW AL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CONVERGENCE
AXIS. IF SHOWERS COME TO FRUITION, WE EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S,
WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
THURSDAY (MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM BELOW).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH AXIS ROTATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD NOT BRING NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS DO
PRODUCE A STORM COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. HOW AMPLIFIED THE NW FLOW
IS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OVER THE
AREA OR JUST GLANCES OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PLAYING IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THIS NW FLOW AND HOW AMPLIFIED IT IS. FOR
NOW, KEPT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS). HOWEVER, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GO UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN, THE LESS PRECIPITATION WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL SPREAD THOUGH IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL MODELS CONVERGE A BIT MORE ON A WETTER AND STORMIER
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25% OR LESS) THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KMSL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS,
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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