491
FXUS64 KHUN 040615
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
115 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK; WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH PERSISTS IN THE TN VALLEY AS WE REACHED THE
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING
AND WINDS ARE SLACKING AT THIS HOUR AS TEMPS SIT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. TONIGHT, EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TOMORROW, STAY WEATHER AWARE. WE WILL START THE MORNING OFF WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP THEN GUSTING TO 20-25KTS, GETTING IN A
PUSH OF WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY WARM IN THE LOWER 80S.
THAT COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST,
THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWOOP
SOUTHEASTWARD. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE THE MAIN
LINE WILL ARRIVE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL CAN BE FOUND
IN THE SHORT TERM BELOW...
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AS THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHED INTO THE REGION, A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALL
DAY WILL PROVIDE WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW WE SHOULD HAVE LESS THAN
1,000 J/KG OF CAPE, BULK SHEAR 20-30 KTS, AND PWATS ~1.25" (+75TH
PERCENTILE). INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, AND
GREATER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE LINE WILL ARRIVE ON THE DOORSTEP OF NW AL
AROUND 4-6PM, NORTH CENTRAL AL 6-8PM AND ARRIVING IN NE AL
8-10PM. THE MAIN PART OF THE LINE SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE AROUND
MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BEST IN NW AL AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AL WHERE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK (LEVEL 1/5)
DRAWN UP. ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE PUSHES EASTWARD. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE RAINFALL IS VERY MUCH NEEDED
DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE, SO WE WILL GLADLY ACCEPT
THE 1" OR SO OF RAINFALL.
THE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FINALLY SLIDE OUT OF HERE SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT OUR ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE HAVE BEEN USED TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FOR
THE PAST TWO WEEKS OR SO, AND THE CAA WILL MAKE OUR HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ONLY REACHING THE 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, BUT MORE SEASONABLE, IN THE LOWER 40S.
ENSURE THAT PETS AND PEOPLE ARE READY FOR THESE COLDER TEMPS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AFTER AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT,
UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND PUSH
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS THEN LEAVES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY
DOMINATE, BUT A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE MOMENT, SO
IT'S MORE LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS POINT, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
BREEZY VERSUS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE APPALACHIANS, STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, THROUGH FRIDAY.
ULTIMATELY, LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK DUE
TO COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. WE ARE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BECAUSE, IF LOWS ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS, FROST MAY BECOME A CONCERN (ESPECIALLY
FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION). TRENDS IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN A
BIT BACK AND FORTH WHETHER IT WILL GET THAT COLD. BUT, LOOKING
PROBABILISTICALLY, THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (10-40%)
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
TENNESSEE COUNTIES. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE MONITORED; HOWEVER, AS WE'VE
BEEN DISCUSSING THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, IT'S NOT QUITE TIME TO PUT
AWAY THE COLD WEATHER CLOTHES JUST YET. KEEP THAT JACKET HANDY EARLY
NEXT WEEK! FORTUNATELY OR UNFORTUNATELY, DEPENDING ON YOUR
PREFERENCE FOR WARMER OR COOLER WEATHER, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WON'T LAST LONG. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO THEN MODERATE AND
GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND
10,000 FEET WORKING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THESE CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR REALM (ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR) AROUND 13Z AT KHSV. NOT AS MUCH OF A SIGNAL OF
THIS AT KMSL. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AT KHSV
THROUGH 19Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (KMSL AFTER 21Z AND KHSV AFTER 22Z). WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ON THE BREEZY
SIDE. SOME TSRA COULD OCCUR AS WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON SATURDAY. A PREDOMINANT PERIOD OF TSRA WAS INCLUDED AT KMSL
AFTER 23Z. THIS MAY OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page