421
FXUS64 KHUN 091422
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
922 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL AS WELL.
- HIGH HEAT INDEX AND HEATRISK VALUES MAY NECESSITATE HEAT
PRODUCTS BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE WITH THE HELP OF
SUNRISE. TODAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. A WEAKENING LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE RESULTING WEAK VORTICITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CAMS HAVE BEEN LITTLE HELP IN THIS PATTERN AS
EACH MODEL SHOWS A VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH SUCH WEAK STEERING
FLOW, SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING STORMS WILL SUPPORT OUR PRIMARY
RISK BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, KEPT
NBM PROBS OF 30-50% CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN NE AL.
FOR PLACES THAT REMAIN DRY, HEAT WILL BE A SNEAKY SECONDARY RISK.
HIGHS WILL NUDGE INTO THE LOW 90S. PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S, HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. MAKE
SURE TO TAKE PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PARENT LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND SHIFT EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EACH
DAY. PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR
AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON. WE LOOK TO FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY (105F) WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
MEETING THAT THRESHOLD AS THE WEEK GOES ON. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TEMP AND STORM COVERAGE TRENDS TO ASSESS HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCES
THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO HEAT, THE WEAK SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE TO SUPPORT OUR DAILY AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCES. WITHOUT A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM, THE RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW. EVEN SO, WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT, WE WILL RETAIN A RISK FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ALL STORMS.
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT CHALLENGING TO
NAIL DOWN WHO MAY HAVE A WASH OUT OF AN AFTERNOON AND WHO MAY STAY
DRY AND SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F. CURRENTLY BEST RAIN CHANCES
(40-60%) REMAIN IN NE AL EACH DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE TROUGH. IN THIS CHALLENGING PATTERN OF HEAT AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, TRY AND BE PREPARED FOR BOTH. TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
IF OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT AND KEEP AN EAR OUT FOR THUNDER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ESE VIA UPPER FLOW INTO MISSOURI AND
KENTUCKY WITH A WEAKER TROUGH AXIS HINTED AT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SW INTO NW GA AND NE AL. THIS FORCING COULD
PRODUCE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY THAT INCREASES IN COVERAGE AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS A TAD LOWER IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AS THIS OCCURS, SO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SBCAPE COULD BE BETWEEN
2000 AND 4000 J/KG THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO.
WITH HIGH PWATS CONTINUING, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. DCAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND OR OVER 1000 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT DRY AIR ALOFT
FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO, SO SOME STRONGER DOWNBURSTS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION
LASTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING, BUT WOULD EXPECT
BY 10 PM THIS WOULD OCCUR (SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO ACTIVITY
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT). NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THIS LACK OF CLEARING DESPITE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.
MODELS DIFFER CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME KEEP A WEAK LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA NW INTO MISSOURI. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN A WETTER PATTERN WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER
SOLUTION PUSHES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ON
THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH DOES STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP SOME MORE.
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THIS
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE, 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE CLIMB INTO A 25 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE (GFS 28 TO 29
DEGREE RANGE). THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF WITH GOOD INSOLATION TO
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH. THIS MAY BEGIN ANOTHER MINI-HEAT WAVE
PERIOD OVER THE AREA, WHERE HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
CONVECTION OCCURS. WHICH SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT
OF A LIMITING EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT. EITHER
WAY, IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND THE HEAT WAVE COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAT HINTED
THAT LOWER CIGS WOULD OCCUR HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED; ALTHOUGH,
THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS THAT ARE STREAMING OVER NORTH ALABAMA AT
PRESENT. THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN FOG, WHICH HAS BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES OVER NE AL. BOTH TERMINALS HAVE SEEN REDUCTIONS IN VIS OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO FOG, BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND A BIT BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG
WILL THEN LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
LOWER VIS AND CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
BY LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD RESULT IN VIS REDUCTIONS AT THE TAF
SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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