869
FXUS64 KHUN 151343
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
843 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 842 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE
TN RIVER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING ON THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING INTO CENTRAL AL AND MS. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DRIER AND
COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, FILTERING
SUNSHINE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, WHICH WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AL. RAIN WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MORNING, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN TN AND
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AL, TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER WHERE SOUTHERLY INFLOW MEETS UP
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
80S VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT DROP DOWN
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, THE AREA WILL BE PRIMED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 1.9-2.1" RANGE (ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
ADDITIONALLY, CAPE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH
VALUES REACHING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT AS WHETHER IT APPROACHES
DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING VERSUS OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
POTENTIAL THREATS ON THE TABLE FOR US. NO MATTER THE DETAILS,
THERE REMAINS HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM AS IT COULD
BRING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE AREA. ANOTHER THREAT TO
WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WE WILL
BE MONITORING HOW RAIN CHANCES AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER AFFECT
THESE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAINFALL
CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL AL. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK
BACK IN FOR UPDATES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE
FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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