085
FXUS64 KHUN 062240
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- DAILY AFTERNOON LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NWS HEAT RISK RISES TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RISK TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASES TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF
4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST
DISCUSSION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IS NOTED WITH A FEW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RECENT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN A
MORNING MCS PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS SW MO INTO W KY. TO OUR
EAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC HAS BROUGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK FLOW IN
PLACE, EXPECT SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. BASED ON THE MORNING CAMS, PRECIP COVERAGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PORTIONS ON NE AL.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 70S. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LOW CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
FORMING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS WITH RIDGING ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COASTS. WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECT DAILY
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
FORECAST, PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE DANGEROUS HEAT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 98-103F. HEAT RISK SHOWS A MODERATE (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 4) RISK LEVEL FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IF YOU DO
HAVE OUTDOOR AFTERNOON PLANS, PLEASE MAKE SURE TO HYDRATE AND
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM RIDGING WILL SET UP BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WSW FLOW AND KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. UNDER BROAD RIDGING, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 90S PAIRED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT CONCERN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON, YET CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW 105 CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD AN
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY AS THE NEW WORK WEEK DRAWS CLOSER.
PAIRED WITH HEAT CONCERNS, EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING, AFTERNOON STORMS WILL POSE LITTLE TO NO STRONG TO
SEVERE RISK. RATHER, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN WEAKLY FORCED REGIMES LIKE THIS, THINGS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TSRA MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION PREVENTED A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24
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