779
FXUS64 KHUN 031647
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM/HIGH (50-80%) FROM SATURDAY-
MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A ZONAL FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, A 850MB JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF A 850MB RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS THIS FLOW PATTERN AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS AL. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 20-25 MPH FROM THE AFORMENTIONED LLJ. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN AND
THEREFORE NO FOG IS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE DEEPENS, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL STALL THIS FRONT OVER THE ARKLATEX AS IT ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH EASTWARD. THEREFORE, DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WE WILL START OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED IN THE SW
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SFC WILL PULL IN WARM, TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND ~15+ DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO MEET OR BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO STAY
TUNED.
AS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPLY DIG
OUT WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN BREAK INTO A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, DAMPENING THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A LOW
CHANCE (15-20%) OF SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. AS A SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN ON IF IT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
(MEDIUM CHANCES 40-60%) AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS BEGINNING
TO SCATTER OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEREFORE, AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN
TODAY IS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 10TH AND 11TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...GH
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