871
FXUS64 KHUN 192255
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 857 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- A VERY LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A WEAK COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR OFF TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA ASIDE FROM
SOME ADDITIONAL ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NW AL, MOST CAMS KEEP US CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH, WE FEEL OUR MARGINAL RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IS UNLIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON. RATHER, COMPLEXES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ESE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO TIP
OVER THE TN/AL STATE LINE. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE PRESENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE SUB SEVERE. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING MAKING FOR A
PERHAPS MORE DREARY START TO OUR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HEAVIER CLOUD COVER MAY BE PRESENT THURSDAY
MORNING NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED IN
THE NEAR TERM DIES THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY
MUGGIER START TO THE DAY, THURSDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY. SPC HAS AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED NW AL IN A MARGINAL FOR A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFTERNOON STORMS. CAMS ARE IN OKAY
AGREEMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND PUSHING EAST
THROUGH NW AL. WHILE WE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR AND FORCING
THAN TODAY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY THREAT. THE
THREAT JUST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD WITH EVERY STORM
POSING A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TIMING WISE THE
THREAT LOOKS TO FOLLOW OUR TYPICALLY SUMMER STORMS, POPPING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND DYING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PLEASE CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THE CONUS WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST SETUP. THIS WILL PUT US
SOLIDLY IN NW FLOW AND PROMOTE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT RISK DROPPING TO A LEVEL 1/4.
THIS WILL BE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN AFTER THE HEAT THE FIRST HALF
OF AUGUST BROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THIS TIME LAST WEEKEND
WHEN WE SAW HEAT ADVISORY/EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS WEEKEND WON'T EVEN CRACK THE
CENTURY MARK, TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 95F.
RAIN RETURNS BY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
LOWER 60S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE AL)!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER, AT
BOTH KMSL AND KHSV, MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (AROUND 22-00Z) DUE TO A LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASED VISIBILITIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...HC
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