972
FXUS64 KHUN 131820
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- NWS HEATRISK VALUES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MAJOR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND URBAN AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM ON TUESDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
AFTER DAYTIME CUMULUS DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET, A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS AHEAD. WITH LIGHT TO CALM FLOW, PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF
THE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD WITH
WITH TIME AND SHIFT INTO THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY, AND INTO THE
SMOKY MTN REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE/SINKING
AIR AIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AND KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ANTICIPATED IN VALLEY AREAS. DAYTIME MIXING WILL LOWER DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL
PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AT TIMES DURING
THE PEAT HEATING HOURS. HEAT RISK LEVELS MAY REACH A LEVEL 3 OF 5
(MAJOR) IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HEAT
ADVISORY WITH WBGTS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MUCH OF THE SAME AS RIDGING
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. ESE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR
AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH HEAT BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT
AND SUN SAFETY.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE RIDGING OVER THE SE LOOKS
TO RETROGRADE. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT EXITS IN THE MODELS REGARDED IF AND WHEN
THIS FRONT COULD COME THROUGH. AS SUCH, ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN
FRIDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY REGARDING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
NEARLY NEARLY A TEN DEGREE SPREAD WIDELY SHOWN IN THE MODELS. SHOULD
THE FRONT NEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 09Z, WHEN PATCHY BR/FG WILL
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO PERIOD FROM 09-13Z FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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