551
FXUS64 KHUN 271417
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 917 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORECAST IN
PORTIONS OF FAR NE AL AND FAR NW AL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING; NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE WITH SUNRISE WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITY SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THROUGH THE MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
HEAT UP QUICKLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S.
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL
NUDGE TOWARDS TRIPLE DIGITS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF MILDER TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY, PLEASE MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY DURING
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL AGAIN HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES IN NE AL. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE SOME GENERAL POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS NEAR
THE AREA, MOST MODELS KEEP IT SOUTH OF US. AS SUCH, SHEAR IS VERY
LOW AND WILL CAUSE STORMS TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING AND
PERHAPS BE SLOWER MOVING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS VERY LOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE FRONT AND
SHORT WAVE PHASING OVER OUR AREA. IF THIS DID OCCUR, HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WOULD BE SEEN OVER NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS THESE FEATURES SEPARATE LEADING TO JUST GENERAL SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES IN NE AL. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TO WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH A BENIGN NIGHT FORECAST TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DAMPEN AND SHIFT OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC.
IN ITS PLACE, RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LEADING
TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPS. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM BACK
TO THE MID 90S BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING BELOW 20%.
POST FRONTAL LOWER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST HOWEVER, MITIGATING OUR OVERALL HEAT CONCERNS. DEW POINTS
LOOK TO DROP TO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND HOVER BETWEEN THE HIGH 60S
TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LARGELY KEEP HEAT
INDICES BELOW 100 THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH, WHILE WARM, THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR LATE AUGUST. WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT
AND MOISTURE RETUNING IN THE NEW WORK WEEK, MAKE SURE TO ENJOY THE
NICE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY DRY BUT HOT AIRMASS TO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S WHILE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR OR BELOW
THE 100 DEGREE MARK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BECOMES BETTER
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK, H85 TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE 20-25C RANGE,
TRANSLATING TO SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE GOOD NEWS THAT
MAY SUPPRESS A LARGER HEAT WAVE THREAT WILL BE THAT THE DEWPOINT
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT EVENTS.
EVEN STILL, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100-107 DEGREE
RANGE NEXT WEEK AND ANY TRENDS THAT FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WOULD WORK TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT.
SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET, SO REMEMBER TO PRACTICE AND PLAN FOR
DANGEROUS TEMPS AND VERY HOT OUTDOOR WORKING CONDITIONS. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 20% THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS DUE TO
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOPED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 3RD. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page