300
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
607 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING A DECAYING MCS MOVED ACROSS KY AND PUSHED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO IS SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENTLY, THIS BOUNDARY IS
ACROSS CENTRAL TN AS INDICATED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS OUR FORECAST AREA,
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN OR NORTHEAST AL AROUND SUNRISE.
LATER TODAY, A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD REINVIGORATING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KY/TN.
AHEAD OF IT, CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SBCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 2000
J/KG, PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES, AND DCAPE OF 1000 J/KG. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR IS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. THESE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. BOTH SPC AND WPC HAS PLACED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS LOW. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET WILL RETAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL UNTIL THEY EXIST OUR AREA. STORMS LOOK TO CLEAR A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE SLIGHT BREAKS IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH MORNING, OUR
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
INCREDIBLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PAIRED WITH A STALLED
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT,
MOISTURE, AND BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCES OF STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ALL STORMS.
WITH HIGH RAIN RATES POSSIBLE, ANY TRAINING CONVECTION WILL POSE A
RISK FOR FLOODING. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS THE WHOLE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC MODELS MEANDER THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE
INSTABILITY IS LOST. RAIN CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WSW INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE CLOUD COVER (AFTER MIDNIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED) WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO MISSOURI IN
MOST GUIDANCE. IT PULLS A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH IT AT THE
SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS
SE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA TO AN LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE
WEAK WARM FRONT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI). SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK,
BUT GOOD AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY MODELS. SOME
STRONGER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP US FROM GETTING REALLY HOT AGAIN. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID. THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
(MAINLY 96 TO 104 DEGREES) THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE WILL BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE STORMS
CLEAR, EXPECT A LOW LEVEL MVFR STRATUS DECK TO LINGER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
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