799
FXUS64 KHUN 311909
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 910 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
RISING TO BETWEEN 100-106 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL ESTABLISHED CU FIELD
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE
ROBUST TOWERING CU PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65 PRESENTLY. STILL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY STABLE MIDLEVELS UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL
PEAK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
BY 6 PM-7 PM THIS EVENING THOSE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD DROP
BELOW 100 DEGREES AREA-WIDE BUT WE RECOMMEND TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
EXTRA CARE IN REGARDS TO THE HEAT EVEN AFTER DARK AS HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STILL FEEL OPPRESSIVE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING WITH THE CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND LEAVING A
CLEAR SKY AND LOWS DROPPING ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. WE WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES OFF FROM RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH CURRENTLY STAND AT 77 DEGREES SET IN 2012 AT MUSCLE
SHOALS AND 77 DEGREES SET IN 1929 FOR HUNTSVILLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME FOG/MIST FORMATION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THE
APEX WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AS WELL, HELPING LOCK IN THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WILL
CAUSE NWS HEATRISK TO INCREASE TO BE MAJOR BY WEDNESDAY (LEVELS 2
AND 3 OF 4) FOR MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. FORECAST HEAT INDICES REACH BETWEEN 100-106 ALONG WITH
WBGTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDLESS, CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE EXERCISED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, FIND AREAS WITH AIR
CONDITIONING, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN CARS!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL OFFER MORE OF THE SAME. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IN THE MID
LEVELS TOO, OUR SAVING GRACE WILL BE THE FACT THAT OUR DEW POINTS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL LIMIT HOW HIGH
OUR HEAT INDICES CAN REACH WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON IF WE WILL
MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. INVERSELY, SINCE WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DRIER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR OVER PREFORMING ON CURRENT HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING, IT WILL BE A TREND WE KEEP AN EYE ON. FROM SUNDAY FORWARD
THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MURKY. MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON A
PASSING COLD FRONT YET ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN AND IF IT COMES
THROUGH. IF THE COLD FRONT DOES MAKE IT THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS THE NBM
SUGGEST, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOW 90S. IF THE FRONT STALLS OR
DAMPENS BEFORE IT GETS HERE, HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE HIGH 90S
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH ROUGHLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF
PACKAGE FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WINDS AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS AND SCT CU FIELD REMAINING IN PLACE
BETWEEN 3K-6K FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT LESS THAN 15% FOR ANY
INFLUENCE TO THE TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KG
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