144
FXUS64 KHUN 131108
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING BRIEF STRONG WINDS.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE MAIN
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR FOG
BEFORE SUNRISE. A FEW OBS SITES, MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN, HAVE
SEEN REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY, BUT IT APPEARS IT IS MOSTLY FROM
LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON THE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER,
ANY AREAS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD MAY QUICKLY SEE FOG FORM
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST SFC CONDITIONS.
LATER TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADWAYS OR EVEN SOME
FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS THE BROAD UPR RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON TUES, THE UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TREK TO THE WEST
BUT WITH EFFECTS STILL OVER OUR REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
DEEPENING S-SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION ON AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST DEEP LAYER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION, WITH PWS
REACHING ~2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES TUES AND WED. FORECAST THERMO
PARAMETERS AND SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
PRIMARY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATER ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD, BUT
PUSHING WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY, ITS INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO WANE,
BUT ENOUGH PRESENCE OF REMNANT SHEARED VORTICITY TO GENERATE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN...WELL THAT COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
ABUNDANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
RIDGING AT THE MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK TO DISPLACE OUR LINGERING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN AT THE MID LEVELS AND WORK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES DROP FROM AROUND 50%
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BELOW 30% BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HEAT WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH HIGHS MAKING IT
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEEKEND HEAT INDICES TO CREEP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PROPER HEAT SAFETY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES, A STRAY STRONGER STORM EACH AFTERNOON
WILL POST A SNEAKY SECONDARY THREAT BEHIND HEAT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AMONG THE STRONGEST
STORMS. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND BR HAVE REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS TO LOW END MVFR
AND IFR. EXPECT THESE LOW CEILINGS TO LINGER UNDER LATER THIS
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN EITHER A TEMPO OR
PROB 30 GROUP. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF MORE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR NEAR THE TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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