947
FXUS64 KHUN 221409
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS
WITH THE SUN RISE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO SEASONAL NORMS, REACHING TO LOW 90S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE NICE LATE SUMMER DAY THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
THIS EVENING. ON A LARGER SCALE, WE REMAIN IN A NW FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVES TO EASILY RIPPLE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THIS EVENING, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PAIRED WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS LIKELY OFF
TO OUR NW BY MID AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH MOST
SHOWING AT LEAST NW AL BEING CLIPPED BY SOME CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS DO BRING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA, BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SEEING WIDESPREAD STORMS AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS STORMS WILL INITIATE TO OUR NW AND DRIFT
THROUGH NW AL FROM AROUND 5 PM TO 10 PM. AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH,
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACTIVELY DECREASING AS WE LOSE THE BEST
DAYTIME HEATING. THE STORMS LOOK TO PASS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
AND THUS BE DISPLACED BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORALLY FROM SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH SLIGHT CAA
FUNNELING IN THROUGH DAWN. THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FELT AS LOWS
TOMORROW MORNING DROP INTO THE MID TO HIGH 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE
FIRST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS AND LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 90
DEGREES WITH LOWS STAYING BELOW 70. THE SECOND FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN A RIDGING WEST / TROUGHING EAST REGIME. THIS WILL KEEP US IN NW
FLOW AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO BE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
WHILE IT'S A LITTLE TOO SOON TO PULL OUT SPECIFIC DETAILS, REALLY
ANY PASSING FEATURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENERAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND TIMING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE EXTREME HEAT
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER IN EXCHANGE FOR THAT, WE WILL BE STUCK IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WE WILL START OFF WITH THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UP IN QUEBEC
AND THE FAR NE U.S WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE, A SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA WILL TRY TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. AS THAT SMALLER LOW
SLIDES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE
DAMPENED ENOUGH FOR IT TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, KEEPING
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN MCS TO DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SPECIFIC
HAZARDS AND TIMING, BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, WITH MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/FG POSSIBLE
FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRIER
PROFILE IN PLACE TODAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A
FEW CU BENEATH A SCT LAYER OF AC. LGT NW FLOW (~5 KTS) WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THRU THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW-
TOPPED SHRA MAY EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT REGION-WIDE THIS EVENING,
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT MSL (DUE TO A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MS). REGARDLESS, PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
EITHER TAF ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...70
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page