616
FXUS64 KHUN 272241
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 800 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY YIELDING A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME
AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BESIDES SLIGHTLY LOWERING DEW POINTS TO
KEEP UP WITH TRENDS. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE 25-30% RANGE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. NO FOG ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FINALLY SOME AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW REINFORCING A
RELATIVELY "COOL" AND DRIER AIR MASS. WE BEGIN THE DAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT VIRGA IS OCCURRING,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA (SUPPORTED BY VERY WEAK TOWERS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI). HOWEVER, MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY LAYER OF AIR BELOW 700
MB. THUS, ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (SAVE FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO)
SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP POPS AT
5% OR LESS FOR THIS REASON. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN BY
THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S, AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE GIVEN THE LOWER RH VALUES.
FOR TONIGHT, THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS (AND DRY AIR
MASS) WILL AGAIN SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A CARBON COPY OF THE FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A SLOW-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ON MONDAY, LOW TO MID 80S
HIGHS WILL BE COMMON AGAIN, WITH LOWS AGAIN DROPPING TO THE LOWER
50S AT NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO
FINALLY PIVOT EAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND ALSO
VEER TO THE ESE/SE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY HELP TO MAKE TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH
MID 80S BEING MORE COMMON (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW UPPER 80S).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION PATTERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. IN FACT, HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THANKFULLY WE WILL BE SPARED FROM A MORE
INTENSE HEAT WAVE THIS TIME WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR BELOW 70 DEGREES. WITH THAT SAID, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME AND COULD
POSE A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE
TO HEAT.
THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMES A
LOT LESS UNCERTAIN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE STILL FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST LONGER RANGE
MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TN VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND,
WE WILL STICK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AND MESSAGE INCREASING CHANCES
(30-65%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. BE SURE TO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ESPECIALLY IF PREPARING
FOR OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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