187
FXUS64 KHUN 040445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MEDIUM/HIGH (50-80%) FROM
SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY, NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS, ALBEIT WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. LIFT INDUCED BY THIS WAS PRODUCING CONVECTION FROM SE IOWA,
TO ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. OVER THIS REGION, SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A STOUT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS BRINGING WARMTH AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW
STATIONS AT TIMES REPORTING CLOUDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP. AREA
TEMPERATURES AS WE NEAR 10 PM WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S, WITH SE-S
WIND OF 5-15 MPH. EARLIER, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 67 IN
FORT PAYNE TO 78 AT MUSCLE SHOALS, WITH LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
SPOTS.
THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THUS UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL FROM AROUND 50 EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST WITH
SE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
WARMER EARLY MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FLOW BRINGING
WARMTH AND A SLOW RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH (HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S), WILL
PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY AND BRING LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. AS IS THE CASE IN A DRY SITUATION BEFORE SHOWERS
COMMENCE, THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT, BUT GOING ON A BIG PICTURE VIEW, OUR FAR NW AREAS COULD
RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SHOWERS REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE OTHER FEATURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 (COOLER EAST), WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. EVEN MILDER THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. RECORD WARMTH MAY OCCUR AT HUNTSVILLE ON
THURSDAY, AND THERE AND MUSCLE SHOALS FRIDAY.
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOCATION THURSDAY FRIDAY
HUNTSVILLE 64/1961 81/1910 60/1951 82/1910
MUSCLE SHOALS 65/1961 86/1908 64/1956 82/1910
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC LOW UP IN THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WARM, TROPICAL AIR WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY (70-80%) AND DESPITE THE CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 80S. THIS COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD TEMP. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODELS
ARE UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT. POPS WILL DIP IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP ON SUNDAY TO HIGH CHANCES
(70%) AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES ACROSS THIS STALLED OUT FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY, ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY 3/7 RECORD HIGHS: HSV - 82 (1956), MSL - 83 (1934)
TUESDAY 3/10 RECORD HIGHS: HSV - 79 (2009), MSL - 82 (1925)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 35-40
KTS AT 2000 FT THROUGH 10-11Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
TAKE OVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWERED CEILINGS MOVE
INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 11TH AND 12TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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