050
FXUS64 KHUN 012232
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
UPDATE
FOR 00Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
COMPLICATED SETUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE PRIMARY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FURTHER NORTH, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WEAVES IT WAY
SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOMEWHERE IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR. SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHOW
ITSELF ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
RIGHT NOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80
TO 83 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NW ALABAMA
CREEPING UP TO AROUND 85 DEGREES.
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT BEHIND ALL OF THIS HAS QUICKLY MADE ITS WAY
SOUTH TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE ONE CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA AND SHIFT IT SOUTHWARD QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE RE-ENFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
MODEL PARAMETERS, 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE, 20 TO 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR,
AND NOT BAD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEGREES CELSIUS/KM LOOK
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
WOULD BE WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END AND BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER TONIGHT THOUGH AT
TIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE
WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR THAT PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT ACROSS EITHER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THEY ALSO DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT. THEY ALSO HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS LOW AS WELL. THIS COULD PUSH
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK INTO PORTIONS OF CULLMAN COUNTY
DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON MONDAY (WITH OVERALL MORE MORNING SUNSHINE EXPECTED). HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE 83 TO 87 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
BUILDS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S. A DRIER AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS) WILL HELP TO PROVIDE
MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE 61 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IN FACT, A COUPLE
OF "REINFORCING" SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY, KEEPING THE HEAT AT BAY TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE
ENOUGH OF IT (COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY) TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER FORECAST AS WELL AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. DRIER NORTH FLOW WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...AMP.24
AVIATION...17
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