750
FXUS64 KHUN 010655
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 823 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THROUGH THE DAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
COAST. LOCALLY THIS WILL INDUCE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH BRINGING GULF WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE TN VALLEY. THE
CONTINUED WAA LOOKS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TOWARDS THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH DUE TO THE CONSTRICTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY OCTOBER, MAKE SURE
TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A CONTINUED WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA. ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S AGAIN FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOIST CONDITIONS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.9-2.1" BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN
REMAINING IN NW AL AND NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THESE HIGHER CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(60-80%) AREA-WIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS
APPROACH MAX VALUES WITHIN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX AND SLOW
STORM MOTION IS ANTICIPATED (LESS THAN 10 MPH). SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS OUTLOOKED
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND, BE SURE TO
STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ESE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH MEDIUM
CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACTS, MEANING
THAT A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
(THANKS TO PWATS NEAR 2"). THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
FINALLY NUDGES IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN IT'S WAKE, EXPECT A COOLER,
DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL MEAN BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RAD
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