409
FXUS64 KHUN 081826
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
126 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY STARTED POPPING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
GREATER COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN NW AL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ONCE STORMS
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL SLACK TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG COVERAGE COULD INCREASE IF CLOUD COVER
DECREASES FURTHER THAN FORECASTED. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ON THURSDAY, THAT OPEN WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BUT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT SCOOTED SOUTHWARD
MAY STALL OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS CAN CREATE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A DOWNBURST WITH THE PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/KG, ML CAPE
1600-1900 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK (RISK LEVEL 1/5) ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE UP IN
THE MIDWEST. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
EVEN BETTER FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE DOWNBURSTS. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS 3,000 J/KG, PWATS ~1.8, THETAE DIFFERENCE ~30C
AND PRETTY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCAL STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER
POTENTIAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
DOWNBURSTS. THE STORMS MAY BE THE MAIN STORY, HOWEVER DO NOT
FORGET ABOUT THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
STAY WEATHER AWARE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND ENSURE YOU STAY
SAFE INDOORS, OUTDOORS, AND ON THE GO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DAILY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
SO EXTREME HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT SAID, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK WHICH WILL POSE A
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME, AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" MAY ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS HAS IN PART LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. CELL MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AROUND 10KT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. GIVEN MOVE ACTIVITY WAS IN PROGRESS MORE TO THE WEST,
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KMSL, SO HAVE A
TEMPO (~50% POPS) IN FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. LESSER RAIN CHANCES
(~30%) WILL BE REALIZED AT KHSV SO MAINTAINED PROB30 CONCERNING
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH IN THE TAFS HAVE CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR,
BRIEF LOWER VALUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND/OR STRONGER STORMS, ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD END THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE LATE NIGHT, AND WOULD BE MORE PREVALENT IN/NEAR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED WETTING RAINFALL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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