997
FXUS64 KHUN 061151
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 826 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN SETS UP BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY
THEN TAPERING OUT IN THE EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REMAIN DOMINATED
BY A DEAMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FL PENINSULA) AND A SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF
SC/GA. ASIDE FROM A FEW/THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE WORKED IN CONJUNCTION WITH CALM-
LIGHT SE WINDS TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPS
IN MOST OUTLYING AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S BY SUNRISE.
PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAKE GUNTERSVILLE
VICINITY AND UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
JACKSON COUNTY, BUT AT THIS POINT THE RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE APPEARS RATHER LOW.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, A DEEP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
ADVANCE INLAND ALONG THE COASTS OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA, RESULTING IN RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SHARPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS, A MARINE WARM FRONT
DEMARCATING DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-L60S (TO ITS NORTHEAST) FROM
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S-L70S (TO ITS SOUTHWEST) WILL ADVANCE INLAND
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN, WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS OUR CWFA.
EVEN WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
L80S/EAST TO U80S/WEST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY,
DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AND PWATS IN THE 1.8" TO 2.1" RANGE, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING SHOULD SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES AREN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE PRETTY
WEAK SO WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE -- WITH PERHAPS A STORMS OR TWO BECOMING
LOCALLY STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY TO ROUND THE SOUTHEAST'S RIDGE
ON TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
CENTERED IN THE MID- ATLANTIC, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. DURING
THIS TIME, ANOTHER RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WILL BE BLOCKED ON PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE, THERE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. YES, IT'S JUNE, BUT THESE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE ELEVATED HEAT RISK VALUES, SO ENSURE
YOU ARE STAYING COOL AND HYDRATED!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CS ABOVE A SCATTERED CU FIELD.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS
TO ADVECT RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
HOWEVER, PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS UNTIL
A BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION
(WARRANTING PROB30 GROUPS FROM 8-12Z/MSL AND 10-12Z/HSV). SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
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