222
FXUS64 KHUN 092326
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50-60 MPH, A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, AND A LOW CHANCE
OF TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AL FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING COUNTIES FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING WIND AND RAIN
IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE
UP FRONT - IT'S GOING TO BE A WINDY AND RAINY WEEKEND FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SO MAKE SURE YOU'RE WEATHER AWARE AND PREPARED!
(SEE MORE BELOW)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN FOR OUR AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WHAT IS LEFT OF ISAIAS MOVES OVER NW AL AND INTO
TN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE ONSET OF
INCREASING WINDS IS NOW ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE FASTER
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM. WE RECENTLY UPGRADED OUR HIGH WIND WATCH TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CULLMAN, MORGAN, MARSHALL, MADISON, JACKSON,
AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN AL WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR REMAINING
COUNTIES WEST OF THESE AREAS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH (WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS) IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA. THESE PRODUCTS ALSO NOW BEGIN
SOONER (1 AM SATURDAY) DUE TO THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE TO SECURE
LOOSE ITEMS (SUCH AS HOLIDAY DECORATIONS) AND TAKE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES)!
AS FOR RAINFALL, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MANY OF THE
HEAVIER BANDS AND CONVECTION FROM ISAIAS WILL SET UP TO OUR EAST
(OVER GEORGIA), WITH PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH RAINFALL FOR NORTH- CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE
WATCHING, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS CONTINUOUSLY EVOLVING SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
AT THIS POINT, WE URGE FOLKS TO BE PREPARED FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4-6 INCHES (OR MORE). THE FLOOD WATCH THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 1AM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY
LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS,
AS WELL AS ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND, DON'T DOWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS!
OVERALL, WE URGE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING
INFORMATION! STAY SAFE!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK -- A
STARK CHANGE FROM WHAT WE'LL BE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
DRY CONDITIONS HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AFTER 07Z. EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO REALLY PICK UP AROUND 7Z AT KHSV
(LLWS 50KTS) AND CLOSER TO 08Z AT KMSL (LLWS 40KTS). EXPECT RAIN
TO MOVE INTO KMSL AFTER 7Z AND INTO KHSV AFTER 8Z AS WELL, PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO CIGS) AT BOTH TERMINALS). VSBYS AND CIGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE IFR REALM CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. LLWS AND WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AS WELL. THE
LLWS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS LLWS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ENE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PERIODS OF RA MIXED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 18Z. CAN'T
RULE OUT A TSRA AFTER 14Z AT EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER, IT IS A
SMALL CHANCE SO ONLY HAVE THAT INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. EXPECT
PRIMARILY -RA TO CONTINUE AFTER 18Z OR 19Z. THOUGH IFR VSBYS OR
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ001>005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-
096-097.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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