623
FXUS64 KHUN 110541
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HIGH CHANCES OF MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F) OR HIGHER
AREAWIDE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE
NEEDED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY, THANKS TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION HAS DISSIPATED. BUT ALONG A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH, SOME NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTED, WITH 10 PM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOST OF THE SHORTER
TERM MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DRY TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SO FAR THIS EVENING, ODDS FOR LATE
NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE, MAINLY IN/NEAR THOSE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE SHOULD COOL TO ONLY INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE MODELS WERE SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE CONUS AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK. THUS,
THE HEAT (AND HUMIDITY) WILL CONTINUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.8"
TO 1.9" ON TUE, PLUS STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT HIGHER
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TUE AFTERNOON. WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON WED. SLIGHT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, ALONG WITH MORE HEATING ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ON THU. WITH SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED, HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ARE EXPECTED.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 106 ON TUE.
THE HIGHER END OF THIS IS LOW IN AREAL COVERAGE, THUS AM NOT
BANKING ON A HEAT ADVISORY TUE. BUT AREA COVERAGE OF VALUES OF 105
AND HIGHER ARE FORECAST WED/THU, WHICH MORE LIKELY WILL WARRANT A
HEAT ADVISORY. SOME OF THE HEAT INDEX VALUES THU COULD REQUIRE AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IF A LARGER TREND OF 110 OR HOTTER READINGS
ARE REALIZED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MODELS REALLY STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A VERY STRONG
597 OR 598 DECAMETER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP ANY MODERATE TO HIGH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN
28 AND 30 DEGREES IN MOST GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE AT
LEAST WITH GOOD INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. A HIGH OR TWO OF 100
DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME MIXING
OF DRIER AIR BELOW 800 MB WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS, MAYBE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY LOWERED IN STRAIGHT NBM GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, LOWERED
DEWPOINTS ONLY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW FROM NBM (75% NBM/25%
CONSRAW). STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET (THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IF 108 OR ABOVE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE MET IN MANY LOCATIONS). HOWEVER, IF NBM
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT AND LESS MIXING OCCURS, THESE VALUES MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS.
EITHER WAY A HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EITHER REMAIN AS STRONG OR STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE. SOME
GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSH 925 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 29
TO 32 DEGREE RANGE (LIKELY VALUES CLOSER TO 32 DEGREES IN NW AL).
THIS COULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUING OVER THE CENTURY MARK AT MORE LOCATIONS. WITH THE
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND, EVEN
IF MIXING OCCURS, EXTREME HEAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THEN.
A FEW MODELS (GFS IN PARTICULAR) TRY TO EXTEND A FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, THIS LOOKS VERY DUBIOUS. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN, THEN HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT LESS HOT AND REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S VERSUS
UPPER 90S TO OVER 100 DEGREES. THE BIGGER IMPACT WOULD BE A FOCUSING
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES HIGHER DESPITE LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHICHEVER SOLUTION IS CORRECT, HEAT INDEX VALUES
LOOK TO STILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES AT LEAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS DO SEEM TO CONVERGENCE ON A SOLUTION THAT
SLIDES THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WNW OVER TEXAS AND PUTS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION IN A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING
SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
CLIMB INTO THE 23 TO 27 DEGREE THOUGH, SO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AT
LEAST WILL LIKELY STILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, THIS DROP IN HIGHS, MAY
MAKE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LESS WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN
THAT IMPACTED KMSL COULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION FROM
BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, STAYED WITH A PROB30 FROM 18-24Z,
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM SHOWERS. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TUE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK, THEN
SW 4-7KT IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TUE NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE WHOLE AREA IN A
MODERATE TO A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
AUGUST 18TH THROUGH AUGUST 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95-97 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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