168
FXUS64 KHUN 241041
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- WE ARE MONITORING A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT MONDAY,
MAINLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AN OVERALL TRANQUIL NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S IN NE AL
AND UPPER 50S FURTHER WEST. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS FORECAST WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE FEATURE TO WATCH
IS THE CURRENT DECAYING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/OK/MO. AS IT
PUSHES AN OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY, NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS. THIS NEW MCS WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PUSH ANY
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT THE EARLIEST BETWEEN 7 PM AND
10 PM. SHEAR STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAS DROPPED WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE UPDATES THIS
EVENING. NW ALABAMA IS STILL OUTLOOKED FOR A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN LATER
ISSUANCES IF THAT IS DROPPED TO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THOUGH.
STILL EXPECTING ANY LOW THREAT OF STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NW AL AND LIKELY
BE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM.
AN AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH WITH MAYBE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 1 INCH LOOK POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL SETS OF GUIDANCE SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
INTO NW GA STRETCHING SW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1
PM. SURFACE WINDS IN SEVERAL SOUNDINGS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CULLMAN
COUNTY AREA SHOW WNW TO NW WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. SO, ALTHOUGH
SHEAR DOES INCREASE, THINKING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP SEVERE STORMS FROM FORMING, ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFYING AGAIN OVER IT. THAT BEING SAID, SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP A BIT
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THOUGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND 925
MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE
RANGE. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WAS ROTATING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA PUSHING NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE PARENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE SAME TIME, A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORMS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS, POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE. THOUGH THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, IT
IS STILL VERY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF IT. THIS DOES PRODUCE A STRONGER AREA OF SHEAR THAT MOVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA LATER THAT EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN NW AL. HELICITY IS FAIRLY STRONG AS WELL, BUT
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH. THE NEWEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING AROUND 700 MB. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL, DESPITE THE OTHER PARAMETERS. HOWEVER, LIKELY THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY (~ 1000 J/KG) FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK A
BIT LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE THOUGH. NOT SURE HOW
FAR EAST THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND, AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM.
THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOW TO A CRAWL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL AL AND GA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING. LATEST CAMS HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
22Z AT MSL AND 00Z AT HSV. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF THESE
STORMS OCCUR, THEREFORE LEFT IFR CIGS DUE TO TSRA IN A PROB 30
GROUP. BEST CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS IS AT MSL. RETURNING TO
VFR BY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
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