017
FXUS64 KHUN 031158
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF 20-50% TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 40-60% BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN (AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A LOW RISK FOR FLASH AND
AREAL FLOODING WILL EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD.
- A COLD FRONT WILL USHER A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AND
WEST OF I-65 AND SO FAR NO LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED. CURRENT TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY MITIGATE FOG FORMATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ON SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN
A SW-NE MANNER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY, DEEPER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 2"), VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHEAR AND NOT VERY HIGH INSTABILITIES SHOULD KEEP OVERALL
STORM STRENGTH BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. DESPITE ON-GOING DRY
CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RUNOFF AND PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ISSUES IF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACT A SINGULAR AREA. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF REGION. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND AROUND
THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PER THE BLENDS AND 18Z MODEL
OUTPUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEW
NAM COMING IN WAS CONFIRMING A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY
SPELL, VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES SHOULD THEY OCCUR MORE TO THE NORTH
COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF AND FLOODING ISSUES IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PER THE BLENDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER ON SUN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE SUN NIGHT, AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE SUN NIGHT SHOULD SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN
MON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REIGN FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND CONTROLS THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS, DAILY HIGHS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 80 TUE AND WED, AND IN THE MID 80S THU AND FRI.
WITH LONGER NIGHTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FALL SEASON, LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S SHELTERED
VALLEYS TO THE LOW/MID 50S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PERSISTED SO FAR AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE TO
IFR AND EVEN LIFR ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/THUNDER RELATED IMPACTS OVER KMSL TODAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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