164
FXUS64 KHUN 231508
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NICE START TO THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
SUNNY SKIES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STATE, KEEPING US IN A DRIER AIRMASS TODAY. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST, AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. TONIGHT WILL BE REALLY NICE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WE WILL START OUT THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
QUEBEC, A RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUT AMPLIFIED UP
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP AN MCS DROPPING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY TO OUR WEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL HAVE A
MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AS DAYTIME
HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S-60S! ON
TUESDAY, A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP RETURN
MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN TO THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MORESO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR EVERYONE. STILL STUCK IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN, A DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING POPS FROM LOW CHANCES (20-40%) DURING THE
DAY TO TO MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY, THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLATTENS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FLATTENS AS WELL AND PUSHES
FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND OHIO VALLEY.
OVERALL, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE
ABOVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST. EXPECTING LOWER CHANCES COME
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN STORMS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE GREATER THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. AMPLE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION
TO BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG
C/KM, ALONG WITH DCAPE AROUND OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WILL WARRANT US
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL (BUT FREEZING LEVELS MAY BE TOO
HIGH). AS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL, SINCE MOST PWATS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.7-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES WHEN COMPARED TO BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
STAY WEATHER AWARE ESPECIALLY IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISPERSE AFTER 12Z,
WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CU AND FEW CI EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING, PERHAPS BECOMING OVERCAST AND CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SOME VIRGA OR LGT SHRA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AL) BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
340-020 AT 5-10 KTS TODAY, BUT SHOULD VEER TO NE AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...70
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