848
FXUS64 KHUN 241041
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
441 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S. COOLING OF A FEW
MORE DEGREES IS FORECAST BY SUNRISE, YET THE THE ABSENCE OF WIND
WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO REAL TEMPERATURES.
THROUGH THE DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TURNING SURFACE FLOW TO THE SSW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD WAA WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE LOW 50S
THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO OCCUR RISING DEW
POINTS FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S THROUGH THE DAY. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO FILTER IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EVOLVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW-MEDIUM (30-60%)CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS (80-90% CHANCE) ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER.
LREF PROBS INDICATE 20-40% OF EXCEEDING 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
ONLY AROUND 10-15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 200 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
FACTORING IN THE POOR LAPSE RATES, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR PROFILE, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY STRONG STORMS MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW AROUND 16Z AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-16 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RAD
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