260
FXUS64 KHUN 190739
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BUILD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105
DEGREES LIKELY, AND POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE TODAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE MORNING TO SEE IF FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR STAYS
CONTAINED DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. A DUAL THREAT FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT AND A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TODAY, BOTH PEAKING IN CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH WELL INTO THE 105-107 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT UNCERTAINTIES ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND HOW THAT
WILL AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OUTWEIGH THE
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
60MPH. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HYDRATED ESPECIALLY IF SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS TODAY!
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WHILE OUR LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THERMODYNAMICALLY, A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PROMPT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS LOOK TO FIRE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND DROP SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM, WE WILL STILL BE LACKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THUS, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH A
MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS IS ROUGHLY FROM 2 PM - 8 PM.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
OUTSIDE OF DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, THE BIGGER
THREAT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS.
RIDGING LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY HEATING UP FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES
SHOW 5-8 DEGREE TEMP ANOMALIES AT THE MID LEVELS, SUPPORTING SOME
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. PAIRED WITH OUR VERY
MOIST AIRMASS, APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. THE QUESTION FOR
MONDAY IS HOW WIDESPREAD 105 APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE (CRITERIA FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THAT MAY WORK TO LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH WIDE SPREAD
APPARENT TEMPS OF 105+, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. REGARDLESS OF PRODUCT ISSUANCE OR NOT,
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY. WEAR SUN
PROTECTION, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTDOORS, AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS IN CARS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A STRONG MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP A ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CORN BELT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DELIVERING NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, "RIDGE RIDER" MCSS MAY START TO CLIP OUR AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN THIS PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS TODAY. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN HEAVIER STORMS, AND AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page