530
FXUS64 KHUN 121825
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
125 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-27KT AT TIMES. RH VALUES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE 25-35% RANGE
AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. THUS, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST (SEE BELOW FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. MID DECK CLOUDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST AL, BUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
EAST TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DECLINE
AROUND SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY CLIMB TO NEAR 20% IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
TIP OF ALABAMA MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LARGELY DISSIPATES AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ON MONDAY, 5H
FLOW FLATTENS AND WEAKENS, BUT THIS WILL STILL MAINTAIN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN
VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY TUESDAY, THE
5H AND 8H RIDGES AMPLIFY A BIT AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. 8H TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 16-17C RANGE WITH FORECAST SURFACE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL AND WEST, BUT MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN MID APRIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY AS RH
VALUES DIP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 30% IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK JUST IN CASE CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER WAVE
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE
(10-30%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERY LIMITED OVER THE TN VALLEY
AND LIKELY WON'T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EVEN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR AS TEMPS RISE NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR HEAT INDICES BUT SHOULD STILL
BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AS HEAT RELATED ILLNESS CAN STILL OCCUR AT THESE
TEMPERATURES WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND COOLING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. DEW
POINTS ARE RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST, SO THIS MAY
HELP KEEP RH VALUES UP A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER PROJECTED.
NONETHELESS, THE FIRE DANGER STILL REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-014-
016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page