949
FXUS64 KHUN 110252
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SE OF THE LOCAL AREA LEAVING
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
70S. THROUGH THE NIGHT OUR ATTENTION WILL BE ON AN MCS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AS IT WEAKENS AND APPROACH OUR AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME ERODING IT
COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY AND OTHERS
BLANKETING NE AL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW MORNING. SHOULD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE IT TO THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING, THEY
ONLY LOOK TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN AMONG A STRONGER STORM
FOR ANY MORNING CONVECTION.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE HIGH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS
INITIATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW PARKED JUST TO OUR NW. ROBUST THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, AND
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.
FORTUNATELY SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, LIMITING THE EXTEND OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO POSE A CONCERN
FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, BOTH SPC AND WPC HAVE
A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LATER WITH TIMING BRINGING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO NW
AL FROM 4-6 PM AND PUSHING THEM SE THROUGH SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET WILL RETAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL UNTIL THEY EXIST OUR AREA. STORMS LOOK TO CLEAR A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE SLIGHT BREAKS IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH MORNING, OUR
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
INCREDIBLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PAIRED WITH A STALLED
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT,
MOISTURE, AND BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCES OF STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ALL STORMS.
WITH HIGH RAIN RATES POSSIBLE, ANY TRAINING CONVECTION WILL POSE A
RISK FOR FLOODING. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS THE WHOLE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK ON SUNDAY. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC MODELS MEANDER THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE
INSTABILITY IS LOST. RAIN CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WSW INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE CLOUD COVER (AFTER MIDNIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED) WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO MISSOURI IN
MOST GUIDANCE. IT PULLS A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH IT AT THE
SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS
SE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA TO AN LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE
WEAK WARM FRONT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI). SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK,
BUT GOOD AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY MODELS. SOME
STRONGER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP US FROM GETTING REALLY HOT AGAIN. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID. THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
(MAINLY 96 TO 104 DEGREES) THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL THROUGH 9Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 10,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY AT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT A WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AT KHSV AND 12Z AND
15Z AT KMSL FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA IMPACTS THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
WITH CIGS AROUND 10,000 FEET EXPECTED. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR -TSRA
LOOKS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. AGAIN, MVFR
VSBYS OR CIGS COULD OCCUR. IF TSRA OR +TSRA OCCUR, SOME LOWER
VSBYS OR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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