021
FXUS64 KHUN 152338
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
UPDATE
FOR 00Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU WILL THIN OUT AFTER SUNSET AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE APPALACHIANS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WITH GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST AL. OTHERWISE, H5 RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TO OUR
WEST AS WE REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 RIDGE CONTINUES AMPLIFYING AND
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK, DEW POINT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY, AND ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
DOWN INTO THE VALLEY. EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY,
AND AN INCREASE IN CU TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GIVEN SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF ANY
REAL FORCING TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
BIG PICTURE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM BRINGING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC NW, AND MORE
GENERALIZED TROUGHING OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
LOWER-48, UPPER RIDGING WILL OVERALL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE A STRING OF VERY WARM TO HOT DAYS (FOR
MIDDLE SEPTEMBER) AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED, TROPICAL SYSTEM HUMBERTO (PROBABLY
A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME) SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL OFF OF THE GA/FL
COAST, PASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA DURING THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE CONUS, CONTINUING
A WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST WAS THE GFS (AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN), HINTING AT LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES
ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE REGION. GIVEN THE DRY
TREND ALREADY GOING, OPTED DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. ONE CHANGE FROM
THU INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE A SLIGHT COOLER TREND. FROM HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S INTO THE MIDWEEK, HIGHS THERE AFTER
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORMAL HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT SUNDAY FOR REFERENCE (THE LAST DAY OF SUMMER
2019) ARE AROUND 83/60 -- WITH FORECASTS OF 92/64.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED.
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL.
COUPLED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THINK THAT SOME BRIEF
PATCHY FOG DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 9Z AT
KMSL. HOWEVER, WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT KHSV, LEAVING ANY MVFR REDUCTIONS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS ATFTER 14Z WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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