555
FXUS64 KHUN 240023
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
723 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 30% THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING
THE NEED FOR EXTRA CAUTION REGARDING OPEN OUTDOOR FLAMES.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW, BRINGING RH VALUES DOWN TO 30% OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AL. THIS WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR BRUSH
FIRES DUE TO PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SHOULD MITIGATE A LARGER WILDFIRE CONCERN. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 70S AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. ONE THING WE WILL BE WATCHING AGAIN
TODAY IS HOW MUCH MIXING WE SEE IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
OUR DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WHICH COULD
RESULT IN RH VALUES BELOW 30% IN SOME AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A TAD WARMER THIS EVENING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOWS TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WE WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY BASED ON NEAR TERM GUIDANCE UNDERDOING
AFTERNOON MIXING IN RECENT DAYS. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
POORLY MODELED LATELY, OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS
AND OTHER SHELTERED, FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CATEGORIZED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, KEEPING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIKE RECENT DAYS, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN CASE RHS DROP TO A LEVEL THAT WOULD BE MORE
CRITICAL FOR FIRE CONDITIONS, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE LARGER
FIRE CONCERNS. THE MID TO LAKE WEEK PERIOD GETS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE TO
OUR NORTH AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, PUSHING COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THESE SYSTEMS WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO DIG THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CLOUDS
(EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT) ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. LGT ESE SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO SSE AND INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS. ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR/FG MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS BTWN
8-12Z, CONFIDENCE IN VSBY IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page