072
FXUS64 KHUN 100847
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
347 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TX, AND ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME, ITS INFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ALOFT
AND VERY LIGHT (10-15 KNOT) NW FLOW, AND FOR THESE REASONS WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) REGION. THAT
SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE U80S-M90S) AND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUSTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, CAPE WILL
LIKELY REACH 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT OF A REMOTE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL), BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF
TWO SUBTLE STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AXES POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DANGEROUS HEAT, AS THE COMBINATION OF
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
95-102F IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SIMILAR WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. THE SHOALS METRO MAY PEAK NEAR
95. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK AROUND 100 IN THE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE METRO AREAS. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AL, MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH TN INTO NORTH AL AND MS. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN RATHER BUOYANT CAPE
VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING RISK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A RESULTANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO EXIST ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL GREATLY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA. A SFC HIGH CENTERED IN
THE GULF WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.5-2"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK ON SATURDAY AND AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS (PENDING
ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN TRENDS) WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ~1500 J/KG DURING DIURNAL HEATING BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM. DESPITE SHEAR REMAINING WEAK, A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS COULD EXIST IF FORCING MATERIALIZES FOR OUR AREA. RECENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORCING FOR STORMS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT WILL ALSO BE OF CONTINUED CONCERN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND,
BE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT HIGH-LVL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISPERSE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A LIGHT S-CALM FLOW BECOMING
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS (IN LGT BR/FG)
BTWN 9-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 16Z AND DISSIPATE AROUND 0Z. AFTER SUNRISE, SFC WINDS
WILL VEER TO SSW AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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