250
FXUS64 KHUN 101746
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH, A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING, AND A VERY LOW, CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF TORNADOES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A BAND OF STEADY, MODERATE RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
IS PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A DRY (AIR) SLOT CAN
BE SEEN VIA THE LOW, MID, AND UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH MUCH OF THE RAIN
FROM THIS MORNING OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE
REALIZED WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER NE AL TO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER (WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON). IN A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. THUS, THIS, ALONG WITH
AMPLE SHEAR, KEEPS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION (STORMS)
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, CURRENT
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE PLENTY OF HELICITY OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, THE VERY LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ULTIMATELY, PLEASE CONTINUE
TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING
WARNINGS! WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ANY THREAT OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING.
INTERESTING RIPPLE SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED VIA RADAR VELOCITY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS COULD BE
INDICATIVE OF DUCTING OR TURBULENT AIR THAT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, SUPPORTING THE CONCERN FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS (50-60 MPH)
PICKING UP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AL AND NE AL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS (WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
PM). WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO PICK UP OVER THESE
LOCATIONS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO, BUT ALSO FOR AREAS WEST WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. WE'VE ALSO ALREADY
RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND SOME POWER OUTAGES SO
FAR THIS MORNING, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL, REMAIN VIGILANT AND BE CAREFUL OF
DEBRIS AND/OR POWER LINES ON ROADS! BE CAUTIOUS WHEN TRAVELING AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLE!
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL KEEP LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY; HOWEVER, WITH THE
DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION, CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING IS
DECREASING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED. FURTHERMORE, ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING,
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY OVERNIGHT (WITH HIGHER
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WITH WHAT'S LEFT OF ISAIAS (THAT HAS/IS MERGING INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW/TROUGH) LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS (LOW CHANCES, 10-30%) ESPECIALLY
FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY
EVENING, DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WINDS REALLY DROP OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH BY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUNNY SKIES AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES SOME
SLIGHT PROGRESS PUSHING EAST INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAIN STOUT. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SETUP OVER MUCH OF
TENNESSEE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA. OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CONSISTENCY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE DOES PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO TO
THE AREA THAT IS MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT ISSUANCE, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR BOTH TERMINALS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TO LOW
TO MEDIUM TONIGHT (20-50%) FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. CHANCES THEN DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LOWER VIS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND SHIFT TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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