993
FXUS64 KHUN 122347
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIED EASTWARD
MOVING CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INITIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THOSE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT CAME FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EARLIER IMPACTED THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL HAVE MADE IT
ACROSS THE TN/MS BORDER. THIS NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD HEAD
MAINLY SOUTHWARD, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST.
THAT SAID, COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NW ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE, MOST OF CAM OUTPUT WAS
IN AGREEMENT, DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN. AN OTHERWISE MILD TO WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE A BIT MORE TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF THAT BOUNDARY, ALONG
WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
EARLY EVENING. BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY, EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM TO
HOT DAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO 103 DEGREES. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COULD IMPACT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS NEXT COMPLEX COMING
IN FROM THE WNW COULD BRING STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE AFTER LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER 70S, HIGHS LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT
SATURATED SOILS. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING PWATS AROUND 1.8-2.2", WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE, THESE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES
HOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS AS WELL AS IF THERE'S A RISK FOR STRONGER
STORMS. CURRENTLY, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL PLACEMENT/TIMING, THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE AND URGE EVERYONE WITH
OUTDOOR INTERESTS TO CHECK BACK IN FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. CU WILL
REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION
TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24
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