849
FXUS64 KHUN 121642
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1142 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THEIR
HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY, KEEPING DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN
PLACE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S OVER THE TERRAIN OF NE AL AND
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. REGARDLESS, THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 70S). PLEASE REMEMBER
TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT MAY
AID IN LOWERING DEW POINTS IF MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, LOWERED FORECAST DEW POINTS A BIT (LOWER
60S) TO REFLECT THIS TREND. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF FOG. NOT ANTICIPATING
DENSE FOG AT THIS POINT, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK OVER THE AREA, KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE
TN VALLEY. IN FACT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM, SO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WE'D SEE MUCH IF ANY RAIN OVER NW AL SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS
TO OUR NW; BUT, WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND EVEN INTO
LATE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
DRY CONDITION AND PLEASANTLY WARM MID OCTOBER WARMTH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE STARTING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SE CONUS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH. AFTER A WARM WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, LOWS
WED NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO AROUND 60S SHELTERED VALLEYS TO MID 60S NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER. A LAST PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THU, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 90 OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NW ALABAMA.
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, A SYSTEM IMPACTING PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (INFUSED WITH MOISTURE FROM EX TROPICAL SYSTEM
RACHEL) SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE WED-THU. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE ENE, AND REFORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRI. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THU INTO FRI. GIVEN THAT MOST
OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE USUAL AREA OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. SO EXCEPT FOR WINDS
BECOMING NW ON FRI, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE MOMENT APPEARS WILL
BE A DRY ONE. THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL
CAMPS WITH THE FRONT. THE 18Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST, BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
DID NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY FRI.
REGARDLESS, ONCE THE FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL CHILL NOTABLY,
JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER LOWS THU NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S, HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOW/MID
80S, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC AND CANADA BUILDS TO THE
SE. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE FELT FRI NIGHT, AS LOWS
TUMBLE INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20
MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT CHILLY FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COOLER TREND CONTINUES SAT, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 60S. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SAT ARE AROUND 75/50.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOULD PRODUCE LOWS BY SUN MORNING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S (PLACES NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER
THAT ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM). THE LOWER END OF THIS COULD BRING A
FROSTING RISK FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS, SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR. COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT SUN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. THERE IS
A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WHETHER THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED. THEREFORE, ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW AND REASSESS IN FUTURE UPDATES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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