047
FXUS64 KHUN 140023
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
723 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A CONDITIONAL, VERY LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. A COUPLE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR THE CU FIELD AND RADAR COVERAGE
IS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 10-30% THROUGH 00Z.
HIS ACTIVITY IS SOLELY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING AND WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALLOWING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING (AND CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL). DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG WOULD
FAVOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. NWS HEAT
RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) THREAT FOR HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY NOT ONLY TODAY, BUT OVERNIGHT AS LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON, PROVIDING LIMITED RELIEF.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A HEAT DOME UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE
SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
(SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS) FROM THIS RIDGE WILL LARGELY
SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EACH DAY. STRONG INSOLATION
EACH DAY WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE AREAWIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SHOULD THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN A
LATER UPDATE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-15%) FOR AN AFTERNOON
STORM OR TWO WILL EXIST BOTH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES)
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO AZ/NM EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW WNW FLOW ALOFT OF
10-20 KNOTS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
MONDAY, PERHAPS ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST
ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100F BOTH AFTERNOONS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DEEP MIXING (WHICH COULD
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS PERHAPS MIXING OUT INTO THE L-M 60S ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS), APPARENT TEMPS
SOLIDLY IN THE 105-110F RANGE SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.
SHOULD THE WEAK COLD FRONT (MENTIONED ABOVE) INDEED ENTER THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE AS IT
ENTERS A WELL-MIXED AIRMASS (WITH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND CAPE
COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY). HOWEVER, THERE IS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, AND FOR
THIS REASON WE WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A LOW (10-30% POP) WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS MERELY DROPPING BACK INTO THE L-M 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, THIS
ACTIVITY IS INITIATING IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AXIS AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, REDUCING
CONCERN FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. THUS, WE ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV/MSL FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, FEATURING FEW-SCT HIGH-BASED CU AND SCT CI. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 9-13Z,
BUT WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR WATER SOURCES AND IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED WETTING RAINFALL, WE WILL
NOT INCLUDE MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS ATTM. A LGT SW FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AUGUST 20TH
AND 21ST.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ALSO
INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AUGUST 22ND AND 23RD.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE MODERATE RISK
LOCATIONS AND A 60-80% CHANCE FOR THOSE IN THE HIGH RISK AREAS FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 TO 97 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
105 TO 110 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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