254
FXUS64 KHUN 090804
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
304 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IN WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT RUMBLED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY BROKEN UP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH CALM WINDS HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS,
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE GUNTERSVILLE AND
THE PAINT ROCK AND FLINT RIVER VALLEYS. THIS LOCALLY DENSE FOG
ISN'T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY, BUT WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON. STILL SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE HEATING AND TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO THE
MID 70S. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS/TRENDS AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE FRONT STALLS BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
CHANCES OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY TONIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVER THE AREA.
THIS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MOVES TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WE START
TO SEE A REX BLOCK SETUP OVER THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH BUT GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE
AXES SETTING UP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA ALOFT.
THE END RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY
STORMY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MAYBE
THROUGH THURSDAY). WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING FLOODING
RISK AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HIGHER SHEAR MOVES INTO THE
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME PERIODS OF STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE
WEATHER AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL
BE COOLER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT/WET PATTERN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MOSTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT NBM WARMS THINGS UP AND DRIES US OUT AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. THINK THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC, BUT LEFT IT FOR NOW.
TYPICALLY, REX BLOCK PATTERNS DO NOT BREAK UP THAT QUICKLY.
BY THURSDAY THOUGH, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS A BIT MORE
REASONABLE FOR US TO TRULY DRY OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 83 TO 88 DEGREE RANGE WITH SUNNY SKIES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BKN DECKS OF LOWER
STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FOG. ONCE
FOG DISSIPATES, THE MVFR STATUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE
DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP
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