951
FXUS64 KHUN 220051
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY IN CENTRAL MS, AL
AND GA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST A WEAK LOW IN
CENTRAL AL THROUGH NORTHWEST GA AND EASTERN TN WHERE A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS LIKE A DRY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL AL INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. PW VALUES ARE DROPPING INTO
THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE AS WELL. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP INTO TN AND AR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTH AL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MCS
CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WHICH DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO OK AND AR IN SOME FASHION ON SATURDAY. THE NBM POPS REMAIN
QUITE LOW, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES (BUT
STILL 20% OR LESS). WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS
LATER TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY. FORECAST
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS, AND UPPER
80S ATOP THE HIGHER PLATEAU LOCATIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NW FLOW AT 5H
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATED ACROSS IA THROUGH MO AND AR. THIS
WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED AS THEY
REACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WHEN WE HAVE LOW CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE EXTREME HEAT
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER IN EXCHANGE FOR THAT, WE WILL BE STUCK IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WE WILL START OFF WITH THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UP IN QUEBEC
AND THE FAR NE U.S WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE, A SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA WILL TRY TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. AS THAT SMALLER LOW
SLIDES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE
DAMPENED ENOUGH FOR IT TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, KEEPING
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN MCS TO DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SPECIFIC
HAZARDS AND TIMING, BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07-08Z, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED
VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 13Z FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17
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