341  
FXUS64 KHUN 251953  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EROSION AND A SHIFT EASTWARD WAS  
TAKING PLACE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS  
THROUGH WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS. THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TREND AS WELL, SO EXPECTING A RAPID CLEARING  
TREND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.  
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT  
FLOW EXPECTED. THUS, FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 30-33F RANGE FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO TEND TO FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE  
TONIGHT AS WELL, SO WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SKY COVERAGE FOR  
THIS.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WILL SHEAR OUT A BIT AS IT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN  
MS/AL. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT  
THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN MS AND  
SOUTHWEST TN THAT MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH AL BY  
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MODEST DPVA ARRIVE, THE RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR A PERIOD, BEFORE  
SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS  
WILL BE LIGHT, RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN NORTHWEST  
AL AND SOUTHERN TN TO JUST UNDER 1/4 INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.  
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF, BECOMING MORE  
NEUTRAL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE  
SLOW TO CLEAR IF AT ALL, SO HAVE DROPPED SUGGESTED MODEL BLEND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND  
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY THANKS TO ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER  
LEVELS AND A WEAK/BROAD RIDGING PATTERN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. BY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM THE BENIGN PATTERN AS A  
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TX AND AND PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD ALONG  
(OR SOUTH) OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK  
LOW, AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE TN VALLEY ON  
WEDNESDAY, ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY  
BE LIGHT AND LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  
 
BY THURSDAY, MORE ZONAL FLOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL  
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE E TO SE AND HELP TO SLIGHTLY PUSH SOME  
EXCESS MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE N.  
GULF COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY,  
FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN.  
 
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO LATE JAN. NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S  
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
CEILINGS OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21-22Z  
BEFORE EITHER LIFTING TO ~035AGL (VFR) OR SCATTERING/CLEARING.  
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HOWEVER, AND THE CLOUDS COULD TEND  
TO LINGER AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ON SUNDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL  
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 060AGL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...17  
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM...BARRON  
AVIATION...17  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE  
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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