019
FXUS64 KHUN 191922
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
222 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
STORM OR TWO SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE DAY TODAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND IS NOW
MOVING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT MAINLY FOR CULLMAN COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST
TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER NORTH ALABAMA
AND IS SLATED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO THIN FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERED
INTO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR
ANY RAIN CHANCES, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE EXISTS A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT, BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT LARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THEN WANES THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH. NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER MOST FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT SOME INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG MAY STILL OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
MILD, IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EVEN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A SERIES OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVES THEN BEGINS TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, AT THE SURFACE, THE
FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION IS SHOWN TO SHIFT BACK
NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS
OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. MODEL PWATS BEGIN
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN
1.5-1.8 INCHES OR SO. BY SUNDAY, PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7 INCHES UP
TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS WEEKEND IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH/NORTHEAST. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT, EVEN
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, BULK SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
10-20 KNOTS. THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EVEN HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES (60-80%) WILL THEN ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE RATES (ABOUT 6-7 DEGC/KM OR
SO), BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT, RESULTING IN VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER, THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCOMING MCS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT IS SHOWN BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS
ACTIVITY, SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER, WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED, BUT SPC DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OUTLOOKED IN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. MEANWHILE, LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
INSTABILITY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION
OF HIGH CAPE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THERE ARE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD FRONT (AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
IN ITS WAKE) WILL PUSH BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE (HIGHEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON). FORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS AS IF THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE LIGHTER LOW/MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR (REDUCING THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION). HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN STEEP IN THE
WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, AND HIGH CAPE MAY STILL YIELD A RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ON A DAILY BASIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M 80S AND LOWS IN THE M-U 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED OUT. EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO
LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT IS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG SINCE THIS IS
HINTED AT BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE CALM,
CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF FOG IS LOW DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE, LEFT FOG OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW,
BUT THIS WILL BE REASSESSED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
(20-40%) MAY ALSO IMPACT THE MSL TERMINAL BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
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