722
FXUS64 KHUN 051809
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
109 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 903 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER, BUT LOWER HUMIDITY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 40SW TO LOW/MID 50S.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAY APPROACH THE MS/AL/FL
COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
BREEZY NNE WINDS HELP TO ADVECT IN A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW -- THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, RESULTING IN A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL AGAIN CREATE A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING -- EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS: BEAUTIFUL,
AUTUMN WEATHER. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY -- AND WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT, IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY OCTOBER CONTINUES
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BRING AN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
THIS WARMTH WILL RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REDUCED
INTO THE MID 20S PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST OF
I-65. A FORECAST OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER ELEVATED OUTDOOR
FIRE SPREAD RISKS. SIMILAR WARMTH IS FORECAST FRI WITH HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH SIMILAR REDUCED MID AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHT SHOULD COOL
INTO THE 50S.
A FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE
12Z CANADIAN AND 18Z GFS HINT AT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA, ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH (INCLUDING
THIS REGION) SAT INTO SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT IT'S TROPICAL ENTITY
MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH LESSER MOISTURE IMPACTING THIS
REGION. MANY THINGS COULD OCCUR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK; SOMETHING THAT'LL CLOSELY BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NNE/NE,
BEFORE WEAKENING TO UNDER 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...AMP
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