076
FXUS64 KHUN 051039
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY. THESE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. PATCHY, DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED PRIMARILY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN WHICH
VISIBILITIES INTERMITTENTLY DROP TO AROUND 1/2 MILE. USE CAUTION
ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS, DRIVING SLOW WITH LOW-BEAM
HEADLIGHTS ON. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ON THE RADAR AT THIS HOUR AND THOSE ARE
MAINLY WEST OF I-65. TO THE EAST WE HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, FOR
NOW. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN NW GA AND CHATTANOOGA AREA IS
ENCROACHING THE AL BORDER. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS TREND UNFOLDS
WILL DEPEND ON OUR FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. IF IS ABLE TO PASS
THROUGH OR START TO SLIDE SOUTHERLY WITH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW, WE
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TOMORROW, THE CUT OFF LOW DIRECTLY TO OUR EAST WILL FINALLY OPEN
UP AS A WAVE AND MOST OF IT STARTS TO LIFT INTO A BROAD TROUGH. A
SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY AND WILL HELP SPARK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60%) WILL
BE EAST OF I-65. SHEAR WILL BE PRETTY WEAK BUT MLCAPE WILL BE UP
TO 2000 J/KG AND PWATS WILL BE JUST UNDER 2". HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AND WILL
NOTE THAT STEERING FLOW IS ALSO PRETTY WEAK SO CELLS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ON THURSDAY, A BERMUDA HIGH THAT REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SFC WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS
WILL HELP INCREASE OUR TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE IT IS IN THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (10-50%) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.
COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SWEEP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS SHOWN TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR MUCH
OF THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE DOES SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY TUESDAY, HOWEVER. OVERALL, ANTICIPATING DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE
PERSISTING, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 98-104 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN INCREASE A BIT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE. THIS RESULTS IN A MODERATE
HEATRISK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN CASE HEAT ADVISORIES BECOME
NECESSARY FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS,
PLEASE REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY! DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PROB30 GROUPS ADDED AT BOTH SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS CAUSING
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, A LOW CHANCE OF FOG EXISTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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